Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That would be my intention too. Could I resist the temptation to vote Remain when I'm stood there, pencil in hand? Not sure. Given I am opposed to the idea of another referendum the high principle course of action would be a no-show. Boycott it. Never have not voted in anything, however, it's almost a fetish with me, so I can't see myself sticking to the plan. I would need to come down with a debilitating virus on the day, and that is too much to hope for.
I like the Deal more than you. In fact I like the Deal. If you had offered me this on 24 June 2016 I would have bitten your hand off. It respects the referendum and avoids crashing the economy. It will also IMO (and this for me is its USP) draw the sting from this deeply divisive issue. Once we have left I cannot see the years of FTA talks dominating our politics in anything like the same way. A long grind, complex, technical, boring, and both parties with broadly the same end policy objective of close alignment. It will hum along in the background, allowing other matters to breathe. That is the great prize that the Deal can deliver and why I am so keen to see it passed by parliament. Come on MPs. War is over (if you want it).
Brexit (Deal) is a cul-de-sac. People think cul-de-sacs highly desirable. But not dead ends.
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I have no idea on the mechanism for delivering that 60% saying we don't leave on 29th March. Well out of kilter to me.
60% is made up of these mechanisms:
35% second referendum with A50 extension 15% May's deal is passed (in March) and short extension to A50 granted to tidy up UK legislation. 10% revoke
35% second referendum is now too high. Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there. 10%? Maybe?
15% May's deal passed. Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. Can't see what that is going to achieve, versus "good faith" resolution rolled into the main negotiations. 5% seems closer.
10% revoke - only if you change the PM before 29th March. Cabinet revolt? Only if they get a job-lot of strap on spines. They seem to have been marked "Out of Stock" as long as I can remember..... I'd make it nearer a 1% chance.
16% chance. Call it 20% to factor in added "unknown weirdness".
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
Why even ask that question? Backing the deal is never going to happen. Being seen to 'enable' Brexit might but not in that way so the finding is pointless.
It goes to show that the Tory brand has a resilience that companies would sell their grannies for. As a lot of the discussions on PB have shown Labour have not made any progress since 2017 (which is starting to seem a while ago) and despite May being sniped at constantly the old warhorse is still there and polling respectably......
Lab/Lib Dems and the Nats dont seem able to dent them. Even a disorderly BREXIT is startign to appear a real possibility and I am not sure May will get the blame - perhaps she is teflon after all.
Cant wait for the Peterborough byelection (if it happens) as I think a real dog fight will be on the cards
I should think labour will win as despite the leavery area and new Tory candidate I think it's a hard pitch to locals when they will be pressed on support for no deal etc which splits the party, but certainly a rare, interesting by election. We remember the exciting ones, the close and the big swings, but most are dull, safe seats these days.
I'd think the Tories are well placed in Peterborough. Voters for a party get pissed off having to go out to vote again when it is down to the stupidity or criminal action of their previous incumbent.
Exhibit A: One of the biggest recent Tory -> LibDem swings in Devon was when the former Tory councillor was jailed for hitting his wife with a hammer.
I could see that ordinarily, and it is very marginal and given the leave vote somewhat surprising it was lost in the first place. But given the timing surely there is a high chance some Tories do not turn out, depending on what the candidate wants to do re Brexit or in reaction to whatever happens with Brexit in Westminster?
Against that, the Tories last time might have had a, er, rather unloveable MP with an anti-incumbency bonus? Wich might explain the "surprise".....
Chris Huhne was a much higher profile figure - yet his conviction did not prevent the LibDems holding on to Easleigh with the Tories falling back to third place.
Thinking on it some more that is perhaps the main thing May is trying to achieve with the delays - I had thought that she would switch to a referendum as well, but perhaps it really is as simple as taking that option away so that Corbyn cannot switch to that (she can see he is reluctant to do so) to please his members, an instead all he can do is, she believes anyway, back her leave, or back a unilateral remain. Recklessly high stakes.
One thing I'm never quite sure with TMay is whether she has a grand tactical plan or whether she just gets up in the morning and does whatever she needs to do to make it through to tomorrow. I think I'm inclined towards the second one.
Thinking on it some more that is perhaps the main thing May is trying to achieve with the delays - I had thought that she would switch to a referendum as well, but perhaps it really is as simple as taking that option away so that Corbyn cannot switch to that (she can see he is reluctant to do so) to please his members, an instead all he can do is, she believes anyway, back her leave, or back a unilateral remain. Recklessly high stakes.
One thing I'm never quite sure with TMay is whether she has a grand tactical plan or whether she just gets up in the morning and does whatever she needs to do to make it through to tomorrow. I think I'm inclined towards the second one.
To be fair, isn't that how most of us live? Admittedly, the number of people who are living like that and are the PM of this country is quite small....
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That smacks of capitulation! We remainers can be abused till the cows come home, but we better not upset Leavers in the event that they kick off.
I have read and re-read the deal. What is there to commend it?
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I have no idea on the mechanism for delivering that 60% saying we don't leave on 29th March. Well out of kilter to me.
60% is made up of these mechanisms:
35% second referendum with A50 extension 15% May's deal is passed (in March) and short extension to A50 granted to tidy up UK legislation. 10% revoke
35% second referendum is now too high. Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there. 10%? Maybe?
15% May's deal passed. Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. Can't see what that is going to achieve, versus "good faith" resolution rolled into the main negotiations. 5% seems closer.
10% revoke - only if you change the PM before 29th March. Cabinet revolt? Only if they get a job-lot of strap on spines. They seem to have been marked "Out of Stock" as long as I can remember..... I'd make it nearer a 1% chance.
16% chance. Call it 20% to factor in added "unknown weirdness".
35% second referendum. "Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there" Yet. Depends on Corbyn.
15% May's deal passed. "Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. " It would be that short -i.e. before May 26th. It would be necessary to get all the UK enabling legislation passed.
10% revoke. Paddy Power and Betfair are offer 1/10 on no revoke. They think it is a greater than 10% chance.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I have no idea on the mechanism for delivering that 60% saying we don't leave on 29th March. Well out of kilter to me.
60% is made up of these mechanisms:
35% second referendum with A50 extension 15% May's deal is passed (in March) and short extension to A50 granted to tidy up UK legislation. 10% revoke
I would put revoke at less than 10% chance, but the possibility of a GE with an agreed extension, would more than cover that.
You can get 1/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power that there will be no revocation.
Point taken, I don't bet at heavy odds on. But if that is a true reflection of the chance of revoke, then the possibility of a GE with an extension must take the chances of not leaving on March 29th above 60%.
Chris Huhne was a much higher profile figure - yet his conviction did not prevent the LibDems holding on to Easleigh with the Tories falling back to third place.
They held on but only with a greatly reduced vote share; They only kept the seat because they were blessed by the capricious gods of FPTP and the main opposition split almost exactly into two. Also the Con candidate wasn't very good, IIRC.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That would be my intention too. Could I resist the temptation to vote Remain when I'm stood there, pencil in hand? Not sure. Given I am opposed to the idea of another referendum the high principle course of action would be a no-show. Boycott it. Never have not voted in anything, however, it's almost a fetish with me, so I can't see myself sticking to the plan. I would need to come down with a debilitating virus on the day, and that is too much to hope for.
I like the Deal more than you. In fact I like the Deal. If you had offered me this on 24 June 2016 I would have bitten your hand off. It respects the referendum and avoids crashing the economy. It will also IMO (and this for me is its USP) draw the sting from this deeply divisive issue. Once we have left I cannot see the years of FTA talks dominating our politics in anything like the same way. A long grind, complex, technical, boring, and both parties with broadly the same end policy objective of close alignment. It will hum along in the background, allowing other matters to breathe. That is the great prize that the Deal can deliver and why I am so keen to see it passed by parliament. Come on MPs. War is over (if you want it).
A thoughtful contribution.
Indeed. And I agree with Mr K. The years of negotiations will also give opportunity for thought.
I'm afraid I don't agree with Mr Kinabalu. The Deal means either rapid capitulation to the Vassal State, which I don't think suits the UK - it's not Norway - or FTA death by a thousand cuts, which comes to the same thing ultimately. Brexit will dominate for the foreseeable. Remaining is the only outcome where there's nothing further to negotiate, even if a part of the population rejects it outright.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That smacks of capitulation! We remainers can be abused till the cows come home, but we better not upset Leavers in the event that they kick off.
I have read and re-read the deal. What is there to commend it?
1- It involves us leaving the EU 2- It minimises disruption.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That would be my intention too. Could I resist the temptation to vote Remain when I'm stood there, pencil in hand? Not sure. Given I am opposed to the idea of another referendum the high principle course of action would be a no-show. Boycott it. Never have not voted in anything, however, it's almost a fetish with me, so I can't see myself sticking to the plan. I would need to come down with a debilitating virus on the day, and that is too much to hope for.
I like the Deal more than you. In fact I like the Deal. If you had offered me this on 24 June 2016 I would have bitten your hand off. It respects the referendum and avoids crashing the economy. It will also IMO (and this for me is its USP) draw the sting from this deeply divisive issue. Once we have left I cannot see the years of FTA talks dominating our politics in anything like the same way. A long grind, complex, technical, boring, and both parties with broadly the same end policy objective of close alignment. It will hum along in the background, allowing other matters to breathe. That is the great prize that the Deal can deliver and why I am so keen to see it passed by parliament. Come on MPs. War is over (if you want it).
A thoughtful contribution.
Indeed. And I agree with Mr K. The years of negotiations will also give opportunity for thought.
I'm afraid I don't agree with Mr Kinabalu. The Deal means either rapid capitulation to the Vassal State, which I don't think suits the UK - it's not Norway - or FTA death by a thousand cuts, which comes to the same thing ultimately. Brexit will dominate for the foreseeable. Remaining is the only outcome where there's nothing further to negotiate, even if a part of the population rejects it outright.
Rapid capitulation to the Vassal State is all we deserve. I'm sure we'll be well looked after within the warm embrace of the EU rather than shivering in the cold outside.
Though I found Mr Kinabalu's contribution thoughtful and interesting, it didn't convince me to vote for The Deal. I'm still a Remainer.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
Their issue is only if Remain wins.
And that is then treated as the final definitive answer - like Leave's wasn't...
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That smacks of capitulation! We remainers can be abused till the cows come home, but we better not upset Leavers in the event that they kick off.
I have read and re-read the deal. What is there to commend it?
1- It involves us leaving the EU 2- It minimises disruption.
1. Not to the liking of the majority of Tory members 2. C.f. No Deal only.
Alas or hurrah, delete to taste. Least it was a break from Brexit. Although I missed it, to be honest. More than that, I suffered actual withdrawal symptoms. Boxing day in particular was difficult.
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I have no idea on the mechanism for delivering that 60% saying we don't leave on 29th March. Well out of kilter to me.
60% is made up of these mechanisms:
35% second referendum with A50 extension 15% May's deal is passed (in March) and short extension to A50 granted to tidy up UK legislation. 10% revoke
35% second referendum is now too high. Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there. 10%? Maybe?
15% May's deal passed. Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. Can't see what that is going to achieve, versus "good faith" resolution rolled into the main negotiations. 5% seems closer.
10% revoke - only if you change the PM before 29th March. Cabinet revolt? Only if they get a job-lot of strap on spines. They seem to have been marked "Out of Stock" as long as I can remember..... I'd make it nearer a 1% chance.
16% chance. Call it 20% to factor in added "unknown weirdness".
35% second referendum. "Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there" Yet. Depends on Corbyn.
15% May's deal passed. "Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. " It would be that short -i.e. before May 26th. It would be necessary to get all the UK enabling legislation passed.
10% revoke. Paddy Power and Betfair are offer 1/10 on no revoke. They think it is a greater than 10% chance.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
Depends on Corbyn changing his position. Remind me, how many times has he done that in his lengthy political career?
I think it should not be underestimated how important a shift it will be if Remainers have started realising that, after a period of reflection over Christmas and New Year, delivering Remain is indeed a fantasy.
Incidentally, in a Remain vs Deal referendum, I think I vote for the Deal. Only if the Deal looks like losing by more than 60:40 would I change my mind. Remaining in the EU with the country riven in two and half of it hating it would be a recipe for Europe-wide chaos. Britain needs to complete its nervous breakdown. The Deal respects the original referendum vote and is orderly enough, if shit.
That smacks of capitulation! We remainers can be abused till the cows come home, but we better not upset Leavers in the event that they kick off.
I have read and re-read the deal. What is there to commend it?
It allows Britain to get on with the next stage of the Brexit poisoning in a controlled way. It will be disastrous, but less disastrous than not proving it to the unsure.
I salute your optimism over Mrs May's copper bottomed predictions. I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I have no idea on the mechanism for delivering that 60% saying we don't leave on 29th March. Well out of kilter to me.
60% is made up of these mechanisms:
35% second referendum with A50 extension 15% May's deal is passed (in March) and short extension to A50 granted to tidy up UK legislation. 10% revoke
35% second referendum is now too high. Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there. 10%? Maybe?
15% May's deal passed. Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. Can't see what that is going to achieve, versus "good faith" resolution rolled into the main negotiations. 5% seems closer.
10% revoke - only if you change the PM before 29th March. Cabinet revolt? Only if they get a job-lot of strap on spines. They seem to have been marked "Out of Stock" as long as I can remember..... I'd make it nearer a 1% chance.
16% chance. Call it 20% to factor in added "unknown weirdness".
35% second referendum. "Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there" Yet. Depends on Corbyn.
15% May's deal passed. "Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. " It would be that short -i.e. before May 26th. It would be necessary to get all the UK enabling legislation passed.
10% revoke. Paddy Power and Betfair are offer 1/10 on no revoke. They think it is a greater than 10% chance.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
Depends on Corbyn changing his position. Remind me, how many times has he done that in his lengthy political career?
I think it should not be underestimated how important a shift it will be if Remainers have started realising that, after a period of reflection over Christmas and New Year, delivering Remain is indeed a fantasy.
Just as Brown saved the pound, so will Corbyn save Brexit.
Starting to think that perhaps I've been supporting the wrong party!
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
i) How do you know Philip May's views - is he on record anywhere? ii) Would you have made the same observation about a male politician's wife?
There have been some notable female 'powers behind the throne'. Edith Wilson, Woodrow Wilson's wife for one. Wasn't Asquith's second wife similarly referred to? Cherie Blair, for another.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
A poll conducted over two weeks covering an extended Bank Holiday period! Nothing in the least dodgy about that we can be sure.
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
i) How do you know Philip May's views - is he on record anywhere? ii) Would you have made the same observation about a male politician's wife?
i) His wife's views are known (she is a remainer) and he is a wealthy, well educated businessman. So it's heavy odds on that he is a Remainer.
ii) Yes I would make the same observation about a male politician's wife - for example I'm sure Michael Gove consults Sarah Vine. Spouses do talk and offer advice, particularly if one is feeling isolated and and need the support of someone one trusts. Do you seriously doubt that she discusses her options with her husband?
Thinking on it some more that is perhaps the main thing May is trying to achieve with the delays - I had thought that she would switch to a referendum as well, but perhaps it really is as simple as taking that option away so that Corbyn cannot switch to that (she can see he is reluctant to do so) to please his members, an instead all he can do is, she believes anyway, back her leave, or back a unilateral remain. Recklessly high stakes.
One thing I'm never quite sure with TMay is whether she has a grand tactical plan or whether she just gets up in the morning and does whatever she needs to do to make it through to tomorrow. I think I'm inclined towards the second one.
No reason why you can't have both a grand strategy and also making it through to the next day every day. If your grand scheme is to be implemented you have to keep getting through the day to day stuff.
I suppose there's a case for going No Deal, with all that that implies, and Boris succeeding May. He would unquestionably make a bad situation worse, and that would be the end of him. A bit like Malenkov being demoted from Premier of the USSR and sent to run a power station somewhere in Khazakhstan
However, as a patriot and a Remainer I wouldn't wish that on my country!
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
Indeed. Bets are not predictive. The 2010GE, 2015GE, 2016EURef, and 2017GE should really have disabused us of that delusion.
People bet on politics to avow loyalty to a cause or to settle an argument. Wealthy people bet more than poor people. There aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds.
TM - in her view there should not be another referendum, it would divide the country, and A50 would have to be delayed
She is an absolutely shameless once-in-a-generation liar. The only reason she doesn't want a #peoplesvote is that it would be the end of her wreckage strewn sewerage scented tenure in No. 10.
I would just remind you of December when Mrs May implied the MV will happen tomorrow and (Until Easter2017) when she assured us there will be no GE before 2020. That said, I am sure on this occasion she is right.
Punters don't agree. 40% probability we leave the European Union on the 29th March.
I have no idea on the mechanism for delivering that 60% saying we don't leave on 29th March. Well out of kilter to me.
60% is made up of these mechanisms:
35% second referendum with A50 extension 15% May's deal is passed (in March) and short extension to A50 granted to tidy up UK legislation. 10% revoke
35% second referendum is now too high. Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there. 10%? Maybe?
15% May's deal passed. Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. Can't see what that is going to achieve, versus "good faith" resolution rolled into the main negotiations. 5% seems closer.
10% revoke - only if you change the PM before 29th March. Cabinet revolt? Only if they get a job-lot of strap on spines. They seem to have been marked "Out of Stock" as long as I can remember..... I'd make it nearer a 1% chance.
16% chance. Call it 20% to factor in added "unknown weirdness".
35% second referendum. "Chuka Umunna this morning has admitted the numbers aren't there" Yet. Depends on Corbyn.
15% May's deal passed. "Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. " It would be that short -i.e. before May 26th. It would be necessary to get all the UK enabling legislation passed.
10% revoke. Paddy Power and Betfair are offer 1/10 on no revoke. They think it is a greater than 10% chance.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
Depends on Corbyn changing his position. Remind me, how many times has he done that in his lengthy political career?
I think it should not be underestimated how important a shift it will be if Remainers have started realising that, after a period of reflection over Christmas and New Year, delivering Remain is indeed a fantasy.
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
TM - in her view there should not be another referendum, it would divide the country, and A50 would have to be delayed
She is an absolutely shameless once-in-a-generation liar. The only reason she doesn't want a #peoplesvote is that it would be the end of her wreckage strewn sewerage scented tenure in No. 10.
It is actually very strange. For a Vicar's daughter she really does appear to have little time for 'Thou shalt not bear false witness' - a compulsive liar indeed.
Given that there must a reasonable number of those who voted against the Gov of the day in any satisfaction survey, the fact that these are always in the negative is not, of itself, surprising. The fact that, with the exception of the Thatcher years Britain has not been well governed post WW2, and it goes a fair way to exposing the extent of the negativity. However, these surveys have no correlation to electability or electoral success so there value is limited.
May will be propped up the sympathy vote. Plucky losers, which is all May is, are by and large, usually able to attract support from one section of the electorate or other no matter how useless they are.
May’s ratings will plummet if her deal ever sees the light of day through parliamentary cowardice because it is rightly loathed. It does nothing for Britain.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
If they are indeed "betting their hearts" there is a great deal of money to be made by you on the betting markets if you have the courage of your convictions and it's not just your own heart that is colouring your assessment.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
If they are indeed "betting their hearts" there is a great deal of money to be made by you on the betting markets if you have the courage of your convictions and it's not just your own heart that is colouring your assessment.
Indeed. And I agree with Mr K. The years of negotiations will also give opportunity for thought.
I'm afraid I don't agree with Mr Kinabalu. The Deal means either rapid capitulation to the Vassal State, which I don't think suits the UK - it's not Norway - or FTA death by a thousand cuts, which comes to the same thing ultimately. Brexit will dominate for the foreseeable. Remaining is the only outcome where there's nothing further to negotiate, even if a part of the population rejects it outright.
Rapid capitulation to the Vassal State is all we deserve. I'm sure we'll be well looked after within the warm embrace of the EU rather than shivering in the cold outside.
Though I found Mr Kinabalu's contribution thoughtful and interesting, it didn't convince me to vote for The Deal. I'm still a Remainer.
Indeed. There's no interest in everyone agreeing. On that note, I wouldn't say the Vassal State is what the UK deserves. It's what we're going to get. The EU simply won't trust us unless we do what they tell us and everything is totally nailed down. Being outside rather than inside we will be unable to push back.
Given that there must a reasonable number of those who voted against the Gov of the day in any satisfaction survey, the fact that these are always in the negative is not, of itself, surprising. The fact that, with the exception of the Thatcher years Britain has not been well governed post WW2, and it goes a fair way to exposing the extent of the negativity. However, these surveys have no correlation to electability or electoral success so there value is limited.
May will be propped up the sympathy vote. Plucky losers, which is all May is, are by and large, usually able to attract support from one section of the electorate or other no matter how useless they are.
May’s ratings will plummet if her deal ever sees the light of day through parliamentary cowardice because it is rightly loathed. It does nothing for Britain.
Voters already know May is committed to her Deal and yet the Tories still have a clear 6% lead over Corbyn Labour with YouGov today
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
But are the people around Corbyn even trying to change his mind on Brexit? Evidence?
TM - in her view there should not be another referendum, it would divide the country, and A50 would have to be delayed
She is an absolutely shameless once-in-a-generation liar. The only reason she doesn't want a #peoplesvote is that it would be the end of her wreckage strewn sewerage scented tenure in No. 10.
She can't be once in a generation. She's the same generation as Trump, Putin, Juncker and Corbyn.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
A poll conducted over two weeks covering an extended Bank Holiday period! Nothing in the least dodgy about that we can be sure.
Nothing dodgy at all, just the first clear evidence of Labour Remainers starting to move to the LDs as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2 and Brexit year dawns
I'm afraid I don't agree with Mr Kinabalu. The Deal means either rapid capitulation to the Vassal State, which I don't think suits the UK - it's not Norway - or FTA death by a thousand cuts, which comes to the same thing ultimately. Brexit will dominate for the foreseeable. Remaining is the only outcome where there's nothing further to negotiate, even if a part of the population rejects it outright.
Just to be clear. I think leaving the European Union is a mistake. And I think giving the public the opportunity to make that mistake was a mistake.
You no doubt agree with that.
Our difference is on the relative merits of the following outcomes from here:
(i) We leave and stay closely aligned. (ii) We set aside the referendum and remain.
For me, the negative aspects of (ii) are greater than those of (i).
If (ii) happens, I see no end to the toil & trouble.
With (i), with a following wind and a full tank, I just about can.
Given that there must a reasonable number of those who voted against the Gov of the day in any satisfaction survey, the fact that these are always in the negative is not, of itself, surprising. The fact that, with the exception of the Thatcher years Britain has not been well governed post WW2, and it goes a fair way to exposing the extent of the negativity. However, these surveys have no correlation to electability or electoral success so there value is limited.
May will be propped up the sympathy vote. Plucky losers, which is all May is, are by and large, usually able to attract support from one section of the electorate or other no matter how useless they are.
May’s ratings will plummet if her deal ever sees the light of day through parliamentary cowardice because it is rightly loathed. It does nothing for Britain.
Voters already know May is committed to her Deal and yet the Tories still have a clear 6% lead over Corbyn Labour with YouGov today
Commitment to her deal and getting it through are too very different things altogether. As for the Tory lead, it’s relatively meaningless at this stage. May has given a commitment to stand down before the next election which is a good thing as she blew a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. Polls when the new leader is in place should be more meaningful.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
Indeed. Bets are not predictive. The 2010GE, 2015GE, 2016EURef, and 2017GE should really have disabused us of that delusion.
People bet on politics to avow loyalty to a cause or to settle an argument. Wealthy people bet more than poor people. There aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds.
Bets are probabilistic and sometimes an odds on bet loses and a long odds bet wins. But they are a useful indicator.
Have you any evidence that "there aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds."
The Brexit result is going to move the markets and I could see some serious hedging going on, and it wouldn't be on Remain!
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
If they are indeed "betting their hearts" there is a great deal of money to be made by you on the betting markets if you have the courage of your convictions and it's not just your own heart that is colouring your assessment.
It's not a bad point. 1/10 for "no revocation" is too short [right word?]: I'm not betting the ranch for a 10% return, tho it might be worth a hundred to keep my hand in. The bet that engrosses me is 3/1 for "No Deal". I think that's extraordinarily long and worth a big bet *but* I am concerned that any minor last-minute deals to keep the lights on will be interpreted by the bookies as a "Deal", hence my fear. Or it's basic cowardice, I'm not sure which: "analysis paralysis" is a character flaw of mine.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
A poll conducted over two weeks covering an extended Bank Holiday period! Nothing in the least dodgy about that we can be sure.
Nothing dodgy at all, just the first clear evidence of Labour Remainers starting to move to the LDs as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2 and Brexit year dawns
Are you really saying that you have never encountered the suggestion that polls over Bank Holiday periods are best avoided?
Indeed. And I agree with Mr K. The years of negotiations will also give opportunity for thought.
I'm afraid I don't agree with Mr Kinabalu. The Deal means either rapid capitulation to the Vassal State, which I don't think suits the UK - it's not Norway - or FTA death by a thousand cuts, which comes to the same thing ultimately. Brexit will dominate for the foreseeable. Remaining is the only outcome where there's nothing further to negotiate, even if a part of the population rejects it outright.
Rapid capitulation to the Vassal State is all we deserve. I'm sure we'll be well looked after within the warm embrace of the EU rather than shivering in the cold outside.
Though I found Mr Kinabalu's contribution thoughtful and interesting, it didn't convince me to vote for The Deal. I'm still a Remainer.
Indeed. There's no interest in everyone agreeing. On that note, I wouldn't say the Vassal State is what the UK deserves. It's what we're going to get. The EU simply won't trust us unless we do what they tell us and everything is totally nailed down. Being outside rather than inside we will be unable to push back.
We have been a vassal state for years. It is only the Eurofanatics who can't see that. The pretence of control was simply a means to keep us onboard with the project and in the end a majority of the public saw that. Including many Remain voters who, if polls and vox pops are to be believed only voted Remain for fear of something worse.
If nothing else the Brexit process has highlighted this so that only the genuine fanatics can be under an delusions about our influence within the EU.
I simply don't know. Trump to be GOP nominee, a Democrat win in 2020 and Khan to retain the mayoralty all seem better bets to me. I'm amazed at the certainty people express on the odds anything UK or Brexit related right now
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
But are the people around Corbyn even trying to change his mind on Brexit? Evidence?
Labour members and supporters certainly are.
I was just rebutting your assertion that Corbyn doesn't change his position. Whether he will on this I don't know. If I knew, I'd make a fortune on the markets.
Given that there must a reasonable number of those who voted against the Gov of the day in any satisfaction survey, the fact that these are always in the negative is not, of itself, surprising. The fact that, with the exception of the Thatcher years Britain has not been well governed post WW2, and it goes a fair way to exposing the extent of the negativity. However, these surveys have no correlation to electability or electoral success so there value is limited.
May will be propped up the sympathy vote. Plucky losers, which is all May is, are by and large, usually able to attract support from one section of the electorate or other no matter how useless they are.
May’s ratings will plummet if her deal ever sees the light of day through parliamentary cowardice because it is rightly loathed. It does nothing for Britain.
Voters already know May is committed to her Deal and yet the Tories still have a clear 6% lead over Corbyn Labour with YouGov today
Commitment to her deal and getting it through are too very different things altogether. As for the Tory lead, it’s relatively meaningless at this stage. May has given a commitment to stand down before the next election which is a good thing as she blew a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. Polls when the new leader is in place should be more meaningful.
2017 was a whole different kettle of fish as Remainers all rallied behind Labour to stop a hard Brexit, the reason Labour is now on 34% not the 40% they got in 2017 is mainly Labour Remainer net movement to the LDs not to the Tories. The Tories are indeed 2% down on the 42% they got in 2017 on 40% as some No Dealers have moved back to UKIP but it is Labour to LD movement which gives the Tories their clear lead
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
If they are indeed "betting their hearts" there is a great deal of money to be made by you on the betting markets if you have the courage of your convictions and it's not just your own heart that is colouring your assessment.
It's not a bad point. 1/10 for "no revocation" is too short [right word?]: I'm not betting the ranch for a 10% return, tho it might be worth a hundred to keep my hand in. The bet that engrosses me is 3/1 for "No Deal". I think that's extraordinarily long and worth a big bet *but* I am concerned that any minor last-minute deals to keep the lights on will be interpreted by the bookies as a "Deal", hence my fear. Or it's basic cowardice, I'm not sure which: "analysis paralysis" is a character flaw of mine.
If you aren’t losing some bets you aren’t making enough bets.
Though I don’t agree with your analysis, if you think it is right and you bet, you should have the courage of your convictions.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
If they are indeed "betting their hearts" there is a great deal of money to be made by you on the betting markets if you have the courage of your convictions and it's not just your own heart that is colouring your assessment.
It's not a bad point. 1/10 for "no revocation" is too short [right word?]: I'm not betting the ranch for a 10% return, tho it might be worth a hundred to keep my hand in. The bet that engrosses me is 3/1 for "No Deal". I think that's extraordinarily long and worth a big bet *but* I am concerned that any minor last-minute deals to keep the lights on will be interpreted by the bookies as a "Deal", hence my fear. Or it's basic cowardice, I'm not sure which: "analysis paralysis" is a character flaw of mine.
I think 3/1 for "No Deal" is much too short. But what do I know? I certainly won't be betting on it. The bookies are not offering the other side of that bet i.e. no No Deal.
Theresa May on the Marr show at 10:00am. I wonder if she'll have anything new to say.
I suspect she'll say that her critics, - both Remainers and Brexiteers - risk damaging democracy if they oppose her plan. What a hypocrite, given what she's up to in parliament!
nOtHiNg HaS cHaNgEd
Indeed - we are heading for a Tory hard Brexit. The idiots who voted Leave will have plenty of time to reflect on their foolishness...
Any Hard brexit is Labour-facilitated.
They could stop it.
They could. t.
Oh, I thik there will be plenty of shit to go round.
Magic Grandpa will lose some of his shine to the young Europhile left. And the LibDms will be able ot say "We didn't have enough MPs to make the difference. But Labour did...."
Yes, Labour would deserve some of the shit. But they are confident, rightly, that it will be a lot less than the Tories get.
Yet another evidence less based assertion, as this morning's YouGov shows Brexit is now hammering Labour as they plunge to Kinnock 1992 levels and the LDs surge to double figures while the Tories remain on 40%
A poll conducted over two weeks covering an extended Bank Holiday period! Nothing in the least dodgy about that we can be sure.
Nothing dodgy at all, just the first clear evidence of Labour Remainers starting to move to the LDs as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2 and Brexit year dawns
Are you really saying that you have never encountered the suggestion that polls over Bank Holiday periods are best avoided?
Was this poll taken on Christmas Day or Boxing Day? No. Since then all weekdays have technically been working days bar New Year's Day. The reason is Labour Remainers moving to the LDs not the holiday period.
Nothing dodgy at all, just the first clear evidence of Labour Remainers starting to move to the LDs as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2 and Brexit year dawns
You might be right, but it's odd that the shift over the holiday is dramatically different to all non-YouGov polls taken before - for instance, Opinium on Dec 20 showed the parties exacftly tied at 39% with the LibDems 2% down.
Was there a sudden surge of people concerned about the Labour stance over Christmas? Maybe - but it would be helpful to see a non-YouGov poll (because of the apparent house effect noted a few threads back) to confirm it. (As a separate issue, YouGov's apparent house effect might be right and everyone else wrong, or not - we just don't know.)
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
But are the people around Corbyn even trying to change his mind on Brexit? Evidence?
McDonnell suggested pre Christmas that Labour backing a second referendum was inevitable.
Anyone who thinks Labour will back May's deal before a referendum is a loon.
Indeed. And I agree with Mr K. The years of negotiations will also give opportunity for thought.
I'm afraid I don't agree with Mr Kinabalu. The Deal means either rapid capitulation to the Vassal State, which I don't think suits the UK - it's not Norway - or FTA death by a thousand cuts, which comes to the same thing ultimately. Brexit will dominate for the foreseeable. Remaining is the only outcome where there's nothing further to negotiate, even if a part of the population rejects it outright.
Rapid capitulation to the Vassal State is all we deserve. I'm sure we'll be well looked after within the warm embrace of the EU rather than shivering in the cold outside.
Though I found Mr Kinabalu's contribution thoughtful and interesting, it didn't convince me to vote for The Deal. I'm still a Remainer.
Indeed. There's no interest in everyone agreeing. On that note, I wouldn't say the Vassal State is what the UK deserves. It's what we're going to get. The EU simply won't trust us unless we do what they tell us and everything is totally nailed down. Being outside rather than inside we will be unable to push back.
We have been a vassal state for years. It is only the Eurofanatics who can't see that. The pretence of control was simply a means to keep us onboard with the project and in the end a majority of the public saw that. Including many Remain voters who, if polls and vox pops are to be believed only voted Remain for fear of something worse.
If nothing else the Brexit process has highlighted this so that only the genuine fanatics can be under an delusions about our influence within the EU.
Agreed being inside or outside the EU doesn't make any difference to the requirement to follow the rules. However ... having a vote, rather than not having one, makes your opinion important and gives you real influence. As does a near veto in practice. The EU goes for unanimity where it can. It's not going to take a non member's views into account. Finally membership gives you channels for expressing your displeasure and horse-trading of stuff you really want, which aren't available to non-members. Put together there is a big difference of the influence of members and non-members, as we will discover. There is no upside to Brexit.
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
But are the people around Corbyn even trying to change his mind on Brexit? Evidence?
McDonnell suggested pre Christmas that Labour backing a second referendum was inevitable.
Anyone who thinks Labour will back May's deal before a referendum is a loon.
You obviously have not read Labour Party Chairman Ian Lavery's comments this morning that EUref2 would be 'disrespectful' to Leave voters because 'voters already opted to leave the EU and now simply want the process to take place.'
No. Marr was referring to the Ken Loach film "I, Daniel Blake", but he misspoke the title as "I, Daniel Craig" by confusing it with Daniel Craig, the elderly indecisive Bond actor. There is no film called "I, Daniel Craig".
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
i) How do you know Philip May's views - is he on record anywhere? ii) Would you have made the same observation about a male politician's wife?
Do you seriously doubt that she discusses her options with her husband?
Of course I don't - but this is the first time I've read you discussing the views of a politician's spouse.
Unless I've missed it?
Mrs Corbyn thinks.....
Mrs Cable thinks.....
Mr Murrell thinks...*
Do feel free to direct me to your previous posts on spouses' opinions.
*Though as the CE of the SNP his view might carry more political weight.....
I think it IS the first time I've discussed the views of a politician's spouse. That's because it is particularly pertinent now and not because the PM is a female. Don't be so quick to take offence or see misogyny when it's not there.
EDIT: Actually I may have discussed the relationship between Gove and his wife some time ago but I can't be bothered to look it up.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
If they are indeed "betting their hearts" there is a great deal of money to be made by you on the betting markets if you have the courage of your convictions and it's not just your own heart that is colouring your assessment.
It's not a bad point. 1/10 for "no revocation" is too short [right word?]: I'm not betting the ranch for a 10% return, tho it might be worth a hundred to keep my hand in. The bet that engrosses me is 3/1 for "No Deal". I think that's extraordinarily long and worth a big bet *but* I am concerned that any minor last-minute deals to keep the lights on will be interpreted by the bookies as a "Deal", hence my fear. Or it's basic cowardice, I'm not sure which: "analysis paralysis" is a character flaw of mine.
If you aren’t losing some bets you aren’t making enough bets.
Though I don’t agree with your analysis, if you think it is right and you bet, you should have the courage of your convictions.
Or you're making the right amount ie none.
I know this is a gambling site but the reality is most punters would be better off if they never bet. Otherwise bookies would be out of business quickly.
Nothing dodgy at all, just the first clear evidence of Labour Remainers starting to move to the LDs as Corbyn continues to rule out EUref2 and Brexit year dawns
You might be right, but it's odd that the shift over the holiday is dramatically different to all non-YouGov polls taken before - for instance, Opinium on Dec 20 showed the parties exacftly tied at 39% with the LibDems 2% down.
Was there a sudden surge of people concerned about the Labour stance over Christmas? Maybe - but it would be helpful to see a non-YouGov poll (because of the apparent house effect noted a few threads back) to confirm it. (As a separate issue, YouGov's apparent house effect might be right and everyone else wrong, or not - we just don't know.)
I think the fact we are now in Brexit year and that is just 3 months away is focusing Remainers' minds but we will of course see what other polls say in due course
Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube blog the other day about why foreigners are fleeing China and it is sobering. People who've lived there for over 10 years, married, bought homes etc, are finding the new visa process much tougher. Local governments have suddenly turned hostile to foreign businesses. There were loads of examples given and just google search Why I Left China.
There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.
You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.
Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.
Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,
Historically, China has been ascendant. The period of decline from the mid 19th to the late 20th century is atypical if you take a long view of history, as most Chinese do. You can overstate national characteristics, but I would say the Chinese are typically very well organised, clever and ambitious. At the international level, China has the heft, the organisation, the money and increasingly the military power to get its way.
China has problems: governance, corruption and it feels like it is in a property bubble. You put your finger on something interesting. How few foreigners there are there. I get the impression fewer than before despite the growth.
There have been many periods of decline, and brilliance, in Chinese history. The whole period between the end of the Tang and the rise of the Ming was pretty grim.
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
But are the people around Corbyn even trying to change his mind on Brexit? Evidence?
At the Guardian event a couple of weeks back, McDonnell said explicitly:
1. He was a Remainer and would vote Remain in any new referendum 2. It might be that Labour would need to offer a referendum even if we took power and were able to negotiate new terms for a Brexit but also 3. It was necessary to follow the agreed sequence, first rejecting the current unacceptable deal, and then trying to get a General Election, before the potential referendum. If a referendum was proposed immediately, it would probably not have a Commons majority.
It made sense to me (and to the LibDem friend who was atending with me), and it still does. It doesn't need a change in position by Corbyn, merely implementation of the policy agreed (unanimously, IIRC) at Conference.
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
But are the people around Corbyn even trying to change his mind on Brexit? Evidence?
At the Guardian event a couple of weeks back, McDonnell said explicitly:
1. He was a Remainer and would vote Remain in any new referendum 2. It might be that Labour would need to offer a referendum even if we took power and were able to negotiate new terms for a Brexit but also 3. It was necessary to follow the agreed sequence, first rejecting the current unacceptable deal, and then trying to get a General Election, before the potential referendum. If a referendum was proposed immediately, it would probably not have a Commons majority.
It made sense to me (and to the LibDem friend who was atending with me), and it still does. It doesn't need a change in position by Corbyn, merely implementation of the policy agreed (unanimously, IIRC) at Conference.
Of course on today's YouGov May would win a comfortable majority in any new general election forced by Labour anyway and thus would be more likely to be able to pass her Deal
Given that there must a reasonable number of those who voted against the Gov of the day in any satisfaction survey, the fact that these are always in the negative is not, of itself, surprising. The fact that, with the exception of the Thatcher years Britain has not been well governed post WW2, and it goes a fair way to exposing the extent of the negativity. However, these surveys have no correlation to electability or electoral success so there value is limited.
May will be propped up the sympathy vote. Plucky losers, which is all May is, are by and large, usually able to attract support from one section of the electorate or other no matter how useless they are.
May’s ratings will plummet if her deal ever sees the light of day through parliamentary cowardice because it is rightly loathed. It does nothing for Britain.
Voters already know May is committed to her Deal and yet the Tories still have a clear 6% lead over Corbyn Labour with YouGov today
Commitment to her deal and getting it through are too very different things altogether. As for the Tory lead, it’s relatively meaningless at this stage. May has given a commitment to stand down before the next election which is a good thing as she blew a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. Polls when the new leader is in place should be more meaningful.
2017 was a whole different kettle of fish as Remainers all rallied behind Labour to stop a hard Brexit, the reason Labour is now on 34% not the 40% they got in 2017 is mainly Labour Remainer net movement to the LDs not to the Tories. The Tories are indeed 2% down on the 42% they got in 2017 on 40% as some No Dealers have moved back to UKIP but it is Labour to LD movement which gives the Tories their clear lead
If that’s true, and Idoubt very much that it is, more fool those Remainers. If they wanted to stay in they should have voted LD.
The lessons of the last election were that a Labour had a leader with charisma who made a lot of unfunded promises that proved superficially attractive and the Tories had an abysmal leader with some electorally toxic policies who fought a negative campaign based on scare mongering. Given that she targeted Labour seats, she failed massively. Learning those lessons is vital if 2017 is not to be repeated.
"Depends on Corbyn changing his position" NATO, Trident. He accepted McDonnell's advice and changed his position (even if he didn't change his beliefs).
But are the people around Corbyn even trying to change his mind on Brexit? Evidence?
At the Guardian event a couple of weeks back, McDonnell said explicitly:
1. He was a Remainer and would vote Remain in any new referendum 2. It might be that Labour would need to offer a referendum even if we took power and were able to negotiate new terms for a Brexit but also 3. It was necessary to follow the agreed sequence, first rejecting the current unacceptable deal, and then trying to get a General Election, before the potential referendum. If a referendum was proposed immediately, it would probably not have a Commons majority.
It made sense to me (and to the LibDem friend who was atending with me), and it still does. It doesn't need a change in position by Corbyn, merely implementation of the policy agreed (unanimously, IIRC) at Conference.
The EU would certainly not suspend A50 for the eight to nine months needed for this to play out - that has implications for EU elections, EU budget and the new Commission.
In order to have that sequence, therefore, Labour would have to sign the Deal. Because entering a two-year transition period is the only way we would have time to hold a referendum and negotiate a rejoin without applying formally through Article 49.
So I'm still not totally convinced that Macdonnell's plan works. He's taking the one course of action guaranteed to make it impossible.
@Barnesian OK, sensible questions. Taking them one-by-one.
"Bets are probabilistic and sometimes an odds on bet loses and a long odds bet wins. But they are a useful indicator."
Looking at the performance of bets as indicators over the past nine years, they are not often predictive. That's the only use I can think of. Are you referring to previous eras?
"Have you any evidence that "there aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds.""
No. I'm guessing based on the number of professional punters congregating here (tens?)) and the number of people who bet on political events (thousands, possibly tens of thousands) . If you have evidence to the contrary, please make it known.
"The Brexit result is going to move the markets and I could see some serious hedging going on, and it wouldn't be on Remain!"
Sorry I'm confused by this. Are you referring to the 2016 referendum or the March 2019 departure?
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
There is still a huge emotional element to Remainers depserately WANTING there to be a way out of Brexit - and betting their hearts.
If they are indeed "betting their hearts" there is a great deal of money to be made by you on the betting markets if you have the courage of your convictions and it's not just your own heart that is colouring your assessment.
It's not a bad point. 1/10 for "no revocation" is too short [right word?]: I'm not betting the ranch for a 10% return, tho it might be worth a hundred to keep my hand in. The bet that engrosses me is 3/1 for "No Deal". I think that's extraordinarily long and worth a big bet *but* I am concerned that any minor last-minute deals to keep the lights on will be interpreted by the bookies as a "Deal", hence my fear. Or it's basic cowardice, I'm not sure which: "analysis paralysis" is a character flaw of mine.
If you aren’t losing some bets you aren’t making enough bets.
Though I don’t agree with your analysis, if you think it is right and you bet, you should have the courage of your convictions.
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
Corbyn is no Blair.
(Well, actually, that may not be quite true. The parallels between the two can actually be quite eerie at times. But electorally, he is no Blair even if his electoral performance in 2017 was merely underwhelming rather than Armageddon.)
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
Major in 1996 was leading a Tory Party in office for 17 years and facing the charismatic centrist Blair.
May now is leading the Tory Party in office for only 8 years and facing the Tramp lookalike hard left Corbyn
No. Marr was referring to the Ken Loach film "I, Daniel Blake", but he misspoke the title as "I, Daniel Craig" by confusing it with Daniel Craig, the elderly indecisive Bond actor. There is no film called "I, Daniel Craig".
Ah. Thanks! I was very puzzled by that tweet. Don't think TMay would be a huge Ken Loach fan, but she has been known to sport a bracelet depicting one of Trotsky's lovers, so who knows?
Given that there must a reasonable number of those who voted against the Gov of the day in any satisfaction survey, the fact that these are always in the negative is not, of itself, surprising. The fact that, with the exception of the Thatcher years Britain has not been well governed post WW2, and it goes a fair way to exposing the extent of the negativity. However, these surveys have no correlation to electability or electoral success so there value is limited.
May will be propped up the sympathy vote. Plucky losers, which is all May is, are by and large, usually able to attract support from one section of the electorate or other no matter how useless they are.
May’s ratings will plummet if her deal ever sees the light of day through parliamentary cowardice because it is rightly loathed. It does nothing for Britain.
Voters already know May is committed to her Deal and yet the Tories still have a clear 6% lead over Corbyn Labour with YouGov today
Commitment to her deal and getting it through are too very different things altogether. As for the Tory lead, it’s relatively meaningless at this stage. May has given a commitment to stand down before the next election which is a good thing as she blew a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. Polls when the new leader is in place should be more meaningful.
he Tories their clear lead
If that’s true, and Idoubt very much that it is, more fool those Remainers. If they wanted to stay in they should have voted LD.
The lessons of the last election were that a Labour had a leader with charisma who made a lot of unfunded promises that proved superficially attractive and the Tories had an abysmal leader with some electorally toxic policies who fought a negative campaign based on scare mongering. Given that she targeted Labour seats, she failed massively. Learning those lessons is vital if 2017 is not to be repeated.
The lesson of the last election was the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983 but failed to get a majority and led Labour by just 2% after Labour squeezed Remainers behind them in the hope of stopping hard Brexit and after May's terrible dementia tax plan.
Now the dementia tax plan has been dropped and Corbyn continues to refuse to back EUref2 and Remainers are starting to move to the LDs the Tories 2% lead in 2017 has become 6% now
No. Marr was referring to the Ken Loach film "I, Daniel Blake", but he misspoke the title as "I, Daniel Craig" by confusing it with Daniel Craig, the elderly indecisive Bond actor. There is no film called "I, Daniel Craig".
Ah. Thanks! I was very puzzled by that tweet. Don't think TMay would be a huge Ken Loach fan, but she has been known to sport a bracelet depicting one of Trotsky's lovers, so who knows?
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
Wouldn't exactly put it that way, but it is true that her unexpected longevity can largely be explained by the calibre of potential challengers.
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
Major in 1996 was leading a Tory Party in office for 17 years and facing the charismatic centrist Blair.
May now is leading the Tory Party in office for only 8 years and facing the Tramp lookalike hard left Corbyn
The main difference is that Major presided over a nasty recession, so far the economy is holding up for May so far.
@Barnesian OK, sensible questions. Taking them one-by-one.
"Bets are probabilistic and sometimes an odds on bet loses and a long odds bet wins. But they are a useful indicator."
Looking at the performance of bets as indicators over the past nine years, they are not often predictive. That's the only use I can think of. Are you referring to previous eras?
"Have you any evidence that "there aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds.""
No. I'm guessing based on the number of professional punters congregating here (tens?)) and the number of people who bet on political events (thousands, possibly tens of thousands) . If you have evidence to the contrary, please make it known.
"The Brexit result is going to move the markets and I could see some serious hedging going on, and it wouldn't be on Remain!"
Sorry I'm confused by this. Are you referring to the 2016 referendum or the March 2019 departure?
Bets are NOT predictive - they are an indication of the probabilities of various possible outcomes.
OK so you're guessing on the impact of professional punters. fair enough.
I was referring to March 2019. If we no deal, markets and sterling will tank. If we remain, they will soar. If May's deal is agreed, I think they will rise a bit because uncertainty will be reduced. Plenty of scope for hedging by wealthy investors. I'd be hedging against no deal and betting on the 3/1 offered for no deal. I think that's why it's too short.
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
Corbyn is no Blair.
(Well, actually, that may not be quite true. The parallels between the two can actually be quite eerie at times. But electorally, he is no Blair even if his electoral performance in 2017 was merely underwhelming rather than Armageddon.)
But are the net-satisfaction ratings a function of the opposition leader? Surely Theresa's can still plunge even if Jezza is crap. That they haven't suggests she must be doing something right in the public's view. It can't be her deal - that remains highly unpopular. So what is the nature of this alchemy?
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
Corbyn is no Blair.
(Well, actually, that may not be quite true. The parallels between the two can actually be quite eerie at times. But electorally, he is no Blair even if his electoral performance in 2017 was merely underwhelming rather than Armageddon.)
But are the net-satisfaction ratings a function of the opposition leader? Surely Theresa's can still plunge even if Jezza is crap. That they haven't suggests she must be doing something right in the public's view. It can't be her deal - that remains highly unpopular. So what is the nature of this alchemy?
Mr. NorthWales, I wonder how much that depends on order of voting.
If May's deal gets roundly rejected and then there's a vote on another referendum, that would surely increase the likelihood of said vote passing.
Particularly if it is backed by May as the only way to get her deal passed.
TM is implacably opposed to a second referendum and she is more likely to head to no deal than put forward the legislation for a second referendum
She is, at heart, a Remainer, and so is her husband.
i) How do you know Philip May's views - is he on record anywhere? ii) Would you have made the same observation about a male politician's wife?
Do you seriously doubt that she discusses her options with her husband?
Of course I don't - but this is the first time I've read you discussing the views of a politician's spouse.
Unless I've missed it?
Mrs Corbyn thinks.....
Mrs Cable thinks.....
Mr Murrell thinks...*
Do feel free to direct me to your previous posts on spouses' opinions.
*Though as the CE of the SNP his view might carry more political weight.....
I think it IS the first time I've discussed the views of a politician's spouse. That's because it is particularly pertinent now and not because the PM is a female.
I look forward to your insight into the views of Mrs Corbyn. Lady Cable and Mr Murrell.
Voters already know May is committed to her Deal and yet the Tories still have a clear 6% lead over Corbyn Labour with YouGov today
Commitment to her deal and getting it through are too very different things altogether. As for the Tory lead, it’s relatively meaningless at this stage. May has given a commitment to stand down before the next election which is a good thing as she blew a 20% lead in the polls in the last election. Polls when the new leader is in place should be more meaningful.
he Tories their clear lead
If that’s true, and Idoubt very much that it is, more fool those Remainers. If they wanted to stay in they should have voted LD.
The lessons of the last election were that a Labour had a leader with charisma who made a lot of unfunded promises that proved superficially attractive and the Tories had an abysmal leader with some electorally toxic policies who fought a negative campaign based on scare mongering. Given that she targeted Labour seats, she failed massively. Learning those lessons is vital if 2017 is not to be repeated.
The lesson of the last election was the Tories got 42%, their highest voteshare since 1983 but failed to get a majority and led Labour by just 2% after Labour squeezed Remainers behind them in the hope of stopping hard Brexit and after May's terrible dementia tax plan.
Now the dementia tax plan has been dropped and Corbyn continues to refuse to back EUref2 and Remainers are starting to move to the LDs the Tories 2% lead in 2017 has become 6% now
It’s no good clinging to that 42% like a child’s comfort. She still blew a 20% lead in the polls during the campaign; she still lost seats; and she still lost her majority. Ramping up big majorities in safe seats is meaningless.
The Tories will still need a credible social care policy whether the last attempt is ditched or not. It’s too big an issue to ignore. So far as Brexit is concerned, we’ll be out so a second referendum or not will be meaningless. People are going to be more concerned about how best to make it a success and what the domestic policy agenda, that has been ignored for too long, actually is.
Interesting analysis. By rights Theresa should now be in the same boat as Gentleman John circa 1996: both were worthy pragmatists with no particularly interest in the EU trying to keep the eurosceptic nutters at bay for the good of the nation. Yet the public turned on him as they haven't, yet, turned on her. Is it because the Tory eurosceptic lineup is now such a grotesque array of fanatics, chancers and incompetents that the public is simply judging Theresa against those pitted against her?
Corbyn is no Blair.
(Well, actually, that may not be quite true. The parallels between the two can actually be quite eerie at times. But electorally, he is no Blair even if his electoral performance in 2017 was merely underwhelming rather than Armageddon.)
But are the net-satisfaction ratings a function of the opposition leader? Surely Theresa's can still plunge even if Jezza is crap. That they haven't suggests she must be doing something right in the public's view. It can't be her deal - that remains highly unpopular. So what is the nature of this alchemy?
Her ratings have touched near-record lows. But I think people do indeed take alternatives into account.
Replying to yesterdays comments on China displacing the USA. Well don't count your chickens on that. Bad things are brewing in China. Xi Jinping China is beactracking on China's opening to the World. People may have heard about the ratcheting up of Antin foreigner rhetoric in China but you need to read about in detail to feel it. I was watching a You tube There has been a big crackdown on Churches. Boards proclaiming socialism have been springing up, also lots of quotations and pictures of the leader. Anti Foreigner rhetoric has increased, local authorities have tried to stamp out shops celebrating Christmas. The clamp down on non Chinese foreign morals has increased. Their has been a big clampdown on Gay representation in the media and when China has not been as uptight as some other Asian countries.
You can read plenty of worried comments about not sticking out and about you should stay safe and get your money out and move your family. Even some talk of Boxer rebellion 2.0.
Basically China opened to the World to get developed but only wanted the wealth not the pluralism that comes with it. It's now trying to close the door again. I don't think it will work, if they want to stay rich that is.
Of course it's not just Foreigners feeling the pressure, there is a reason for millions of Overseas Chinese around the Pacific Rim and anyone without secure connections desperating trying to get money abroad and visa's. There is no protection in China, your fortunes can change on a whim,
Historically, China has been ascendant. The period of decline from the mid 19th to the late 20th century is atypical if you take a long view of history, as most Chinese do. You can overstate national characteristics, but I would say the Chinese are typically very well organised, clever and ambitious. At the international level, China has the heft, the organisation, the money and increasingly the military power to get its way.
China has problems: governance, corruption and it feels like it is in a property bubble. You put your finger on something interesting. How few foreigners there are there. I get the impression fewer than before despite the growth.
There have been many periods of decline, and brilliance, in Chinese history. The whole period between the end of the Tang and the rise of the Ming was pretty grim.
Imperial China certainly had grim periods, but to classify the entire span between the tenth and fourteenth centuries as such is too broad. That period includes the Song dynasty, which was one of the major dynasties, and the Yuan dynasty where China did far better under the Mongols than anyone else. Even the interregnum between the Tang and Song dynasties was marked by economic growth.
The EU would certainly not suspend A50 for the eight to nine months needed for this to play out - that has implications for EU elections, EU budget and the new Commission.
I don't think that's true. The contingency plan for the EU elections and the new Commission is already made, and with the budget they're currently planning for 2021- on the basis of no UK, and wouldn't have too hard a time amending it if the UK decided to stay, since the UK is a net contributor.
That said, it's not clear the rest of the EU would want to do a whole new round of "no, we can't give you a unicorn" Withdrawal Agreement discussions.
Comments
35% second referendum with A50 extension
15% May's deal is passed (in March) and short extension to A50 granted to tidy up UK legislation.
10% revoke
Hey don't worry. I'll take it.
15% May's deal passed. Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. Can't see what that is going to achieve, versus "good faith" resolution rolled into the main negotiations. 5% seems closer.
10% revoke - only if you change the PM before 29th March. Cabinet revolt? Only if they get a job-lot of strap on spines. They seem to have been marked "Out of Stock" as long as I can remember..... I'd make it nearer a 1% chance.
16% chance. Call it 20% to factor in added "unknown weirdness".
This is a good article. Thank you and I look forward to your next one.
But, no, the Deal is very much not a dead end. It takes us out of the EU and into a future that could pan out in several different ways.
I have read and re-read the deal. What is there to commend it?
15% May's deal passed. "Hmmm. "Short" would have to be so short as to prevent our involvement in 2019 Euro elections. " It would be that short -i.e. before May 26th. It would be necessary to get all the UK enabling legislation passed.
10% revoke. Paddy Power and Betfair are offer 1/10 on no revoke. They think it is a greater than 10% chance.
I'm just reporting the odds resulting from punters making bets.
2- It minimises disruption.
ii) Would you have made the same observation about a male politician's wife?
Though I found Mr Kinabalu's contribution thoughtful and interesting, it didn't convince me to vote for The Deal. I'm still a Remainer.
https://order-order.com/2019/01/06/gardiner-labour-continue-brexit/
2. C.f. No Deal only.
I think it should not be underestimated how important a shift it will be if Remainers have started realising that, after a period of reflection over Christmas and New Year, delivering Remain is indeed a fantasy.
Starting to think that perhaps I've been supporting the wrong party!
ii) Yes I would make the same observation about a male politician's wife - for example I'm sure Michael Gove consults Sarah Vine. Spouses do talk and offer advice, particularly if one is feeling isolated and and need the support of someone one trusts. Do you seriously doubt that she discusses her options with her husband?
https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-philip-may-theresa-may-husband-closest-advisor-capital-group-paradise-papers-2017-11?r=UK&IR=T
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/1081866637551247360
The long term is a series of short terms.
He would unquestionably make a bad situation worse, and that would be the end of him. A bit like Malenkov being demoted from Premier of the USSR and sent to run a power station somewhere in Khazakhstan
However, as a patriot and a Remainer I wouldn't wish that on my country!
Edited for errors. Principle remains.
People bet on politics to avow loyalty to a cause or to settle an argument. Wealthy people bet more than poor people. There aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds.
2nd Ref 0%
May Deal 0%
No Deal 100%
May will be propped up the sympathy vote. Plucky losers, which is all May is, are by and large, usually able to attract support from one section of the electorate or other no matter how useless they are.
May’s ratings will plummet if her deal ever sees the light of day through parliamentary cowardice because it is rightly loathed. It does nothing for Britain.
Unless I've missed it?
Mrs Corbyn thinks.....
Mrs Cable thinks.....
Mr Murrell thinks...*
Do feel free to direct me to your previous posts on spouses' opinions.
*Though as the CE of the SNP his view might carry more political weight.....
And which of those probabilities coincides with your personal preference?
(Asking for a friend...)
You no doubt agree with that.
Our difference is on the relative merits of the following outcomes from here:
(i) We leave and stay closely aligned.
(ii) We set aside the referendum and remain.
For me, the negative aspects of (ii) are greater than those of (i).
If (ii) happens, I see no end to the toil & trouble.
With (i), with a following wind and a full tank, I just about can.
Have you any evidence that "there aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds."
The Brexit result is going to move the markets and I could see some serious hedging going on, and it wouldn't be on Remain!
If nothing else the Brexit process has highlighted this so that only the genuine fanatics can be under an delusions about our influence within the EU.
I'm amazed at the certainty people express on the odds anything UK or Brexit related right now
I was just rebutting your assertion that Corbyn doesn't change his position. Whether he will on this I don't know. If I knew, I'd make a fortune on the markets.
Scissors, Stone, Paper.
It's a thing of beauty.
Though I don’t agree with your analysis, if you think it is right and you bet, you should have the courage of your convictions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Was there a sudden surge of people concerned about the Labour stance over Christmas? Maybe - but it would be helpful to see a non-YouGov poll (because of the apparent house effect noted a few threads back) to confirm it. (As a separate issue, YouGov's apparent house effect might be right and everyone else wrong, or not - we just don't know.)
Anyone who thinks Labour will back May's deal before a referendum is a loon.
Most Labour MPs represent seats which voted Leave
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/ian-lavery-accuses-peoples-vote-supporters-disrespectful-brexit/
EDIT: Actually I may have discussed the relationship between Gove and his wife some time ago but I can't be bothered to look it up.
I know this is a gambling site but the reality is most punters would be better off if they never bet. Otherwise bookies would be out of business quickly.
1. He was a Remainer and would vote Remain in any new referendum
2. It might be that Labour would need to offer a referendum even if we took power and were able to negotiate new terms for a Brexit
but also
3. It was necessary to follow the agreed sequence, first rejecting the current unacceptable deal, and then trying to get a General Election, before the potential referendum. If a referendum was proposed immediately, it would probably not have a Commons majority.
It made sense to me (and to the LibDem friend who was atending with me), and it still does. It doesn't need a change in position by Corbyn, merely implementation of the policy agreed (unanimously, IIRC) at Conference.
The lessons of the last election were that a Labour had a leader with charisma who made a lot of unfunded promises that proved superficially attractive and the Tories had an abysmal leader with some electorally toxic policies who fought a negative campaign based on scare mongering. Given that she targeted Labour seats, she failed massively. Learning those lessons is vital if 2017 is not to be repeated.
In order to have that sequence, therefore, Labour would have to sign the Deal. Because entering a two-year transition period is the only way we would have time to hold a referendum and negotiate a rejoin without applying formally through Article 49.
So I'm still not totally convinced that Macdonnell's plan works. He's taking the one course of action guaranteed to make it impossible.
OK, sensible questions. Taking them one-by-one.
"Bets are probabilistic and sometimes an odds on bet loses and a long odds bet wins. But they are a useful indicator."
Looking at the performance of bets as indicators over the past nine years, they are not often predictive. That's the only use I can think of. Are you referring to previous eras?
"Have you any evidence that "there aren't enough professional punters betting on value to correct the odds.""
No. I'm guessing based on the number of professional punters congregating here (tens?)) and the number of people who bet on political events (thousands, possibly tens of thousands) . If you have evidence to the contrary, please make it known.
"The Brexit result is going to move the markets and I could see some serious hedging going on, and it wouldn't be on Remain!"
Sorry I'm confused by this. Are you referring to the 2016 referendum or the March 2019 departure?
(Well, actually, that may not be quite true. The parallels between the two can actually be quite eerie at times. But electorally, he is no Blair even if his electoral performance in 2017 was merely underwhelming rather than Armageddon.)
May now is leading the Tory Party in office for only 8 years and facing the Tramp lookalike hard left Corbyn
Now the dementia tax plan has been dropped and Corbyn continues to refuse to back EUref2 and Remainers are starting to move to the LDs the Tories 2% lead in 2017 has become 6% now
OK so you're guessing on the impact of professional punters. fair enough.
I was referring to March 2019. If we no deal, markets and sterling will tank. If we remain, they will soar. If May's deal is agreed, I think they will rise a bit because uncertainty will be reduced. Plenty of scope for hedging by wealthy investors. I'd be hedging against no deal and betting on the 3/1 offered for no deal. I think that's why it's too short.
The Tories will still need a credible social care policy whether the last attempt is ditched or not. It’s too big an issue to ignore. So far as Brexit is concerned, we’ll be out so a second referendum or not will be meaningless. People are going to be more concerned about how best to make it a success and what the domestic policy agenda, that has been ignored for too long, actually is.
That said, it's not clear the rest of the EU would want to do a whole new round of "no, we can't give you a unicorn" Withdrawal Agreement discussions.