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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marg

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  • TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    The problem with Michael Gove's plans has always been that the outcome is not the one he expects.
    Reality has a well-known anti-Gove bias.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    I have to admit, I do rather admire the way Gove has managed to convince his colleagues and a significant chunk of the professional commentariat that he's an intellectual, despite having never having done a single thing worthy of that label.

    Though, to be fair, I doubt most MPs or journalists would recognize an intellectual if one bit them on the arse so maybe it's not surprising.
    From what I hear he reads up on his brief to a limited extent so I suppose that that alone puts him head and shoulders above his peers.
  • TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    I disagree there. Huhne was a much higher profile figure yet the LibDems held on to Eastleigh at the by election with the Tories falling to third place behind UKIP. If the LibDems could overcome the unpopularity of the Coalition , Labour's prospects in Peterborough should not be too bleak.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
    Ah, but Oswestry went Liberal in a 1904 by-election.
    Someone from PB had better edit the Wikipedia page

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Even if it's been 'only' 110, not 180 years, it's ridiculous for Tory or Labour seats to be represented by the same party for centuries on end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    No but that 40% favourable overall would make him an even stronger independent candidate in the general election than Ross Perot was in 1992 and 1996
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2018

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Ah, Twitter. If Twitter were right Remain would have won in 2016 and Corbyn would have won in 2017. And Miliband would probably have won in 2015...
    And if the right wing echo chambers were right then May would have had her landslide because nobody would consider voting for Corbyn...

    The age of the right wing press baron is starting to move on, when change happens you embrace it or wither away. I only hope other Conservatives share your view.
    "other Conservatives"?
    Other people who are also Conservatives...

    Or are you not a Conservative? (voter if not ideology)
    I've voted Conservative in half of parliamentary elections and probably less than that in other elections.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    And then May chose a path.
  • Mr Jezziah, please tell us, pray, what are the latest approval ratings for Magic Grandpa? Slightly better than shit or slightly worse? This government is atrocious, but it is not being held to account because the LoTO is an idiot with as much credibility as a potential PM as Mr Bean. He is a sick joke. It is high time there was a realignment in British politics, and it isn't the "Back to the 70s" realignment that Corbyn's gullible following think they would like. We need a proper grown up in charge of the Labour Party as a good start, not someone who thinks he is being "edgy" in his Grammar School Sixth Form common room.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    justin124 said:

    notme2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?

    Copeland was a labour seat for sixty years and never really thought of as competitive until Corbyn.
    Not true. On present boundaries Copeland would have been Tory in both 1983 and 1987.
    My understanding, although it got mixed up in a whole pro and anti Corbyn argument at the time is that Copeland was trending Tory before it was won in the by election.

    I've also seen someone suggest that Labour would have won the seat in 2017 had it not been for the by election although that probably requires some assumptions to be made. Luckily the argument regarding Copeland faded as a point against Corbyn thanks to the general election.
  • Donny43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    And then May chose a path.
    A path he said wouldn't happen because we held all the cards.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
    Ah, but Oswestry went Liberal in a 1904 by-election.
    Someone from PB had better edit the Wikipedia page

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Even if it's been 'only' 110, not 180 years, it's ridiculous for Tory or Labour seats to be represented by the same party for centuries on end.
    Up to the voters, though, isn't it?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    The sad thing about the way Brexit has played out is how *crushingly* inevitable it's all been. Which would seem to imply that Mr Gove is significantly less intelligent than the average denizen of PB who called this all months or years ago.

    And you're all as thick as mince.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    My knowledge of the selection process is so weak, I'm not even sure if that's a sarcastic tweet are not.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    And then May chose a path.
    A path he said wouldn't happen because we held all the cards.
    One can fold any pocket cards.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
    Ah, but Oswestry went Liberal in a 1904 by-election.
    Someone from PB had better edit the Wikipedia page

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Even if it's been 'only' 110, not 180 years, it's ridiculous for Tory or Labour seats to be represented by the same party for centuries on end.
    Why is it ridiculous?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
    Ah, but Oswestry went Liberal in a 1904 by-election.
    Someone from PB had better edit the Wikipedia page

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Even if it's been 'only' 110, not 180 years, it's ridiculous for Tory or Labour seats to be represented by the same party for centuries on end.
    Why is it ridiculous?
    Indeed. It's only represented that way if that's what the voters want. Their choice.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Anorak said:

    My knowledge of the selection process is so weak, I'm not even sure if that's a sarcastic tweet are not.
    Having a net unfavourability rating that most presidents don't achieve until two years in office is not a good start.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    Rutland has had a Conservative MP since 1841, although the second MP was a Liberal up till 1859. after that, both were Conservatives, and the sole MP since 1885 has been a Conservative.
    Horsham has been Tory since 1880.
    Fat lot of good it’s done us.
    I don't know.. Its kept Labour out.. That has to be good.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    And the exception of 1951 and 1929 (for Gravesend), if Wikipedia is right
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Sadly you don't have to make stuff up to smear Corbyn, you just have look into his past. His election as leader and his duplicitous attitude to Brexit has proved a disaster for Labour and I say that as someone who was a member up to a couple of years ago.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    The sad thing about the way Brexit has played out is how *crushingly* inevitable it's all been. Which would seem to imply that Mr Gove is significantly less intelligent than the average denizen of PB who called this all months or years ago.

    And you're all as thick as mince.
    You flatter us.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
    Ah, but Oswestry went Liberal in a 1904 by-election.
    Someone from PB had better edit the Wikipedia page

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Shropshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Even if it's been 'only' 110, not 180 years, it's ridiculous for Tory or Labour seats to be represented by the same party for centuries on end.
    Why is it ridiculous?
    Indeed. It's only represented that way if that's what the voters want. Their choice.
    What is ridiculous is people still thinking after Scotland 2015 and 2017 that there is such a thing as an inherently safe seat.
  • ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    And the exception of 1951 and 1929 (for Gravesend), if Wikipedia is right
    Yes, the "bellwether" page didn't say that, but the seat page does.

    What's the world coming to when you can't trust Wikipedia or Labour MPs?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2018

    Anorak said:

    My knowledge of the selection process is so weak, I'm not even sure if that's a sarcastic tweet are not.
    Having a net unfavourability rating that most presidents don't achieve until two years in office is not a good start.
    Got that, but then I remembered Corbyn, and the fact that all you need to do to win a primary (maybe) is to persuade your own side (65/35 in this case).

    Anyway: outcome is that those numbers are double-minus bad.
  • Mr "Jezziah": A bit rich coming from someone who supports Jeremy Corbyn, the man that spawned "Momentum", one of the most violently abusive organisations that has infiltrated British political life since Oswald Mosley donned a brown coloured shirt. I wasn't abusing you, you fool, I was pointing out the vacuousness of your blind following of the most intellectually challenged "leader" of a mainstream party in Britain.

    Thank you for your ungenerous offer, though, but I must decline as I try to avoid quacks and crackpots, which is why I am not suckered by Corbyn or other dangerous extremists.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Hold on a minute the Cabinet, which had Brexiteers in it agreed to the GE as did MPs. I agree the PM is not very good at her job hence 117 MPs from her own party think anybody else would be better than her at the job!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Stop whining.

    He is a supposed to be a genius, right? He'd worked everything through in his cavernous mind. And yet to his (and evidently your) utter amazement things got complicated. Events happened.

    And now it's not fair. Jeez. Small children in Hartlepool could have done a better job.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    Rutland has had a Conservative MP since 1841, although the second MP was a Liberal up till 1859. after that, both were Conservatives, and the sole MP since 1885 has been a Conservative.
    Horsham has been Tory since 1880.
    Fat lot of good it’s done us.
    I don't know.. Its kept Labour out.. That has to be good.
    Bless.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited December 2018

    justin124 said:

    notme2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?

    Copeland was a labour seat for sixty years and never really thought of as competitive until Corbyn.
    Not true. On present boundaries Copeland would have been Tory in both 1983 and 1987.
    My understanding, although it got mixed up in a whole pro and anti Corbyn argument at the time is that Copeland was trending Tory before it was won in the by election.

    I've also seen someone suggest that Labour would have won the seat in 2017 had it not been for the by election although that probably requires some assumptions to be made. Luckily the argument regarding Copeland faded as a point against Corbyn thanks to the general election.
    I think that is correct. Had there not been a by election at Copeland in late February 2017 , Labour would probably have retained the seat at the June General Election - particularly as the more vulnerable Barrow - in - Furness was narrowly held.. A party that wins a seat at a by election usually enjoys a bounce in the same seat at the subsequent election - even if they fail to hang on to it. Thus, the Tories almost certainly did a fair bit better in Crewe & Nantwich and Norwich North in the 2010 election following the earlier by election victories. Over time that effect tends to unwind - so Labour could be well placed to pick up Copeland next time.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2018
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Stop whining.

    He is a supposed to be a genius, right? He'd worked everything through in his cavernous mind. And yet to his (and evidently your) utter amazement things got complicated. Events happened.

    And now it's not fair. Jeez. Small children in Hartlepool could have done a better job.
    "Most Incompetent PM Ever Runs Rings Around Leavers" is the new "Beaten By A Bus".
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    How to resolve stupid woman gate from Hansard 30 years ago. Ms Abbott had objected to use of the term stupid woman.

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm198889/cmhansrd/1989-01-20/Debate-5.html

    Mr. Holt : I could not possibly call the hon. Member for Glasgow, Maryhill (Mrs. Fyfe) an intelligent woman.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,883
    If the Tories could get 22,343 votes with a total prat like Stewart Jackson as the candidate they must really fancy their chances.
  • Anorak said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Stop whining.

    He is a supposed to be a genius, right? He'd worked everything through in his cavernous mind. And yet to his (and evidently your) utter amazement things got complicated. Events happened.

    And now it's not fair. Jeez. Small children in Hartlepool could have done a better job.
    "Most Incompetent PM Ever Runs Rings Around Leavers" is the new "Beaten By A Bus".
    Can I use that in a thread header, replete with a hat tip to you?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited December 2018

    Mr Jezziah, please tell us, pray, what are the latest approval ratings for Magic Grandpa? Slightly better than shit or slightly worse? This government is atrocious, but it is not being held to account because the LoTO is an idiot with as much credibility as a potential PM as Mr Bean. He is a sick joke. It is high time there was a realignment in British politics, and it isn't the "Back to the 70s" realignment that Corbyn's gullible following think they would like. We need a proper grown up in charge of the Labour Party as a good start, not someone who thinks he is being "edgy" in his Grammar School Sixth Form common room.

    This argument is quite a silly one.

    You say Corbyn is rubbish and the reason you give is because of his lack of popularity.

    The reason Corbyn is where he is is because he was more popular than the angry, entitled, arrogant, smug, ignorant, old, xenophobic, gammon tendency you represent which has unsuccessfully opposed him each step of the way.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Stop whining.

    He is a supposed to be a genius, right? He'd worked everything through in his cavernous mind. And yet to his (and evidently your) utter amazement things got complicated. Events happened.

    And now it's not fair. Jeez. Small children in Hartlepool could have done a better job.
    "Most Incompetent PM Ever Runs Rings Around Leavers" is the new "Beaten By A Bus".
    Can I use that in a thread header, replete with a hat tip to you?
    By all means; I'd be honoured.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2018
    Anorak said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Stop whining.

    He is a supposed to be a genius, right? He'd worked everything through in his cavernous mind. And yet to his (and evidently your) utter amazement things got complicated. Events happened.

    And now it's not fair. Jeez. Small children in Hartlepool could have done a better job.
    "Most Incompetent PM Ever Runs Rings Around Leavers" is the new "Beaten By A Bus".
    Along the lines of Take Back Control...but why isn't the EU imposing its will on the member states over immigration.
  • Anorak said:

    By all means; I'd be honoured.

    Thank you, it'll get used in the new year.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited December 2018
    DavidL said:

    If the Tories could get 22,343 votes with a total prat like Stewart Jackson as the candidate they must really fancy their chances.

    My gut feeling is that Labour should be favourites. I also very much doubt that Brexit will dominate the campaign there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    If the Tories could get 22,343 votes with a total prat like Stewart Jackson as the candidate they must really fancy their chances.

    My gut feeling is that Labour should be favourites.
    It hangs almost entirely on the date, and exactly where we are with Brexit by then.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Sadly you don't have to make stuff up to smear Corbyn, you just have look into his past. His election as leader and his duplicitous attitude to Brexit has proved a disaster for Labour and I say that as someone who was a member up to a couple of years ago.
    Yes his bringing the Labour party back to a realistic shot of winning was terrible...

    If Corbyn had gone the 2nd referendum route the Tories would have won a majority and done what they wanted with Brexit. It is all well and good to complain about what he's done but without him Labour wouldn't have this power to effect Brexit anyway.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    If the Tories could get 22,343 votes with a total prat like Stewart Jackson as the candidate they must really fancy their chances.

    My gut feeling is that Labour should be favourites.
    It hangs almost entirely on the date, and exactly where we are with Brexit by then.
    Very surprised if Brexit is the key issue at all. It is not what interests voters - despite what the commentariat might think.
  • Mr Jezziah, please tell us, pray, what are the latest approval ratings for Magic Grandpa? Slightly better than shit or slightly worse? This government is atrocious, but it is not being held to account because the LoTO is an idiot with as much credibility as a potential PM as Mr Bean. He is a sick joke. It is high time there was a realignment in British politics, and it isn't the "Back to the 70s" realignment that Corbyn's gullible following think they would like. We need a proper grown up in charge of the Labour Party as a good start, not someone who thinks he is being "edgy" in his Grammar School Sixth Form common room.

    This argument from centrists is quite a silly one.

    You say Corbyn is rubbish and the reason you give is because of his lack of popularity.

    The reason Corbyn is where he is is because he was more popular than the angry, entitled, arrogant, smug, ignorant, old, xenophobic, gammon tendency you represent which has unsuccessfully opposed him each step of the way.
    Haha that is really very funny. Sorry to "abuse" you, but I can see why you follow him, you really are, well, how can I put it, not exactly at the front of the queue when the little grey cells were handed out.

    Corbyn is all of those things you just accused others of, but you are too stupid or blind to see it. Prep-school educated, brought up in a manor house, posh, wanna-be intellectual upper middle class family, goes to top grammar school in the country, can't get into university, but is still staggeringly smug, very arrogant, certainly anti-Semitic. He is an entitled moron who is massively out his depth. Am I angry about it? Too right I am. He is the one that is equally to blame for the mess that we are in, but then as one of his unquestioning acolytes you are probably quite pleased about the chaos, so that it makes a new dawn of socialist utopia more likely. Pathetic.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Mr "Jezziah": A bit rich coming from someone who supports Jeremy Corbyn, the man that spawned "Momentum", one of the most violently abusive organisations that has infiltrated British political life since Oswald Mosley donned a brown coloured shirt. I wasn't abusing you, you fool, I was pointing out the vacuousness of your blind following of the most intellectually challenged "leader" of a mainstream party in Britain.

    Thank you for your ungenerous offer, though, but I must decline as I try to avoid quacks and crackpots, which is why I am not suckered by Corbyn or other dangerous extremists.

    I realised a while ago that you are a bit of an idiot but I can confirm that zealot, fool, accusations of vacuousness are insults, which could be classed as abuse. Now I don't mind I am just worried you go around insulting people to their face and then telling them you didn't insult them and feeling hurt when they suggest it...
  • OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Sadly you don't have to make stuff up to smear Corbyn, you just have look into his past. His election as leader and his duplicitous attitude to Brexit has proved a disaster for Labour and I say that as someone who was a member up to a couple of years ago.
    Yes his bringing the Labour party back to a realistic shot of winning was terrible...

    If Corbyn had gone the 2nd referendum route the Tories would have won a majority and done what they wanted with Brexit. It is all well and good to complain about what he's done but without him Labour wouldn't have this power to effect Brexit anyway.
    A large part of LAB's surprise result at GE2017 came from anti-Brexit tactical voters like me switching to LAB because we thought it was the best option.

    Never again my friend.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    justin124 said:

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    I disagree there. Huhne was a much higher profile figure yet the LibDems held on to Eastleigh at the by election with the Tories falling to third place behind UKIP. If the LibDems could overcome the unpopularity of the Coalition , Labour's prospects in Peterborough should not be too bleak.
    Huhne was however more contrite and more honest, at least pleading guilty, and there were elements of his story that could generate a little sympathy. And the LibDems are very strong in Eastleigh, threw everything at that by-election, and were lucky in that the Tory/UKIP vote split almost evenly. (Indeed as an aside there is an argument that Eastleigh made the LibDems complacent about the challenge of holding their seats in 2015, thinking they could repeat the trick).

    Labour's MP has been dishonest from the start and clearly lied to the court. As a new MP I'd expect Labour to take a knock, and with them currently dipping in the polls, if it were imminent I'd bet on a Tory gain. By 2019 everything might look different.
  • Mr "Jezziah": A bit rich coming from someone who supports Jeremy Corbyn, the man that spawned "Momentum", one of the most violently abusive organisations that has infiltrated British political life since Oswald Mosley donned a brown coloured shirt. I wasn't abusing you, you fool, I was pointing out the vacuousness of your blind following of the most intellectually challenged "leader" of a mainstream party in Britain.

    Thank you for your ungenerous offer, though, but I must decline as I try to avoid quacks and crackpots, which is why I am not suckered by Corbyn or other dangerous extremists.

    I realised a while ago that you are a bit of an idiot but I can confirm that zealot, fool, accusations of vacuousness are insults, which could be classed as abuse. Now I don't mind I am just worried you go around insulting people to their face and then telling them you didn't insult them and feeling hurt when they suggest it...

    Mr "Jezziah": A bit rich coming from someone who supports Jeremy Corbyn, the man that spawned "Momentum", one of the most violently abusive organisations that has infiltrated British political life since Oswald Mosley donned a brown coloured shirt. I wasn't abusing you, you fool, I was pointing out the vacuousness of your blind following of the most intellectually challenged "leader" of a mainstream party in Britain.

    Thank you for your ungenerous offer, though, but I must decline as I try to avoid quacks and crackpots, which is why I am not suckered by Corbyn or other dangerous extremists.

    I realised a while ago that you are a bit of an idiot but I can confirm that zealot, fool, accusations of vacuousness are insults, which could be classed as abuse. Now I don't mind I am just worried you go around insulting people to their face and then telling them you didn't insult them and feeling hurt when they suggest it...
    Maybe you should go and counsel your friends in Momentum perhaps? They know a thing or too about abuse, and Jeremy is remarkably quiet for someone who pretends to be "oh so nice". I could call you a hypocrite, but I don't want to hurt your feelings
  • Mr "Jezziah": A bit rich coming from someone who supports Jeremy Corbyn, the man that spawned "Momentum", one of the most violently abusive organisations that has infiltrated British political life since Oswald Mosley donned a brown coloured shirt. I wasn't abusing you, you fool, I was pointing out the vacuousness of your blind following of the most intellectually challenged "leader" of a mainstream party in Britain.

    Thank you for your ungenerous offer, though, but I must decline as I try to avoid quacks and crackpots, which is why I am not suckered by Corbyn or other dangerous extremists.

    I realised a while ago that you are a bit of an idiot but I can confirm that zealot, fool, accusations of vacuousness are insults, which could be classed as abuse. Now I don't mind I am just worried you go around insulting people to their face and then telling them you didn't insult them and feeling hurt when they suggest it...

    Mr "Jezziah": A bit rich coming from someone who supports Jeremy Corbyn, the man that spawned "Momentum", one of the most violently abusive organisations that has infiltrated British political life since Oswald Mosley donned a brown coloured shirt. I wasn't abusing you, you fool, I was pointing out the vacuousness of your blind following of the most intellectually challenged "leader" of a mainstream party in Britain.

    Thank you for your ungenerous offer, though, but I must decline as I try to avoid quacks and crackpots, which is why I am not suckered by Corbyn or other dangerous extremists.

    I realised a while ago that you are a bit of an idiot but I can confirm that zealot, fool, accusations of vacuousness are insults, which could be classed as abuse. Now I don't mind I am just worried you go around insulting people to their face and then telling them you didn't insult them and feeling hurt when they suggest it...
    Maybe you should go and counsel your friends in Momentum perhaps? They know a thing or too about abuse, and Jeremy is remarkably quiet for someone who pretends to be "oh so nice". I could call you a hypocrite, but I don't want to hurt your feelings
    Typo alert: "two"
  • Probably the most unexpected verdict since this one.

    A Saudi millionaire has been cleared of raping a teenager after claiming he might have accidentally penetrated the 18-year-old when he tripped and fell on her.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12052901/Ehsan-Abdulaziz-Saudi-millionaire-cleared-of-raping-teenager.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    I can't imagine what a state we'd be in now if we'd had Boris or Leadsom, even without the GE. Most probably they would have provoked an anti-Brexit backlash by now and we would be well on the way to a second vote.
  • No. And one must commend the police officers who managed to subdue him without using lethal force.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Hold on a minute the Cabinet, which had Brexiteers in it agreed to the GE as did MPs. I agree the PM is not very good at her job hence 117 MPs from her own party think anybody else would be better than her at the job!
    Well indeed. When the election was called I was very excited. By the time of the vote I was annoyed and upset.

    So many avoidable mistakes. Cameron, Osborme and Crosby had won the election previously with a strong focus on the economy. Being faced by literal Marxists who want to "smash capitalism." May had nothing worthwhile to say on the economy and silenced her Cabinet.

    But then she had nothing worthwhile to say on anything else either and chickened out of the debates. It was an utterly avoidable disaster and frankly the result she deserved. In 2015 I delivered leaflets for a hard working ultra marginal MP who won his seat against the odds. By 2017 I had moved away so did not again but in an avoidable election he lost thanks in no small part to May's shortcomings.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    You do get the impression that this has been drawn up by people who will neither have to implement these plans nor live with the consequences (electoral among others) of them....

    They are bureaucrats implementing EU law.
    I saw a number of ultra-Brexiteers on twitter spitting with rage that the EU hasn't reciprocated the automatic right of residence for UK citizens in the EU. It can't, because its not within the competency of the EU to order member states to accept citizens of third countries.

    So, what we have here is Brexiteers now demanding the EU massively overreach its powers.

    Funny old world.
    The 27 have been admirably quick conferring on other issues; I don't think it's beyond the bounds of reasonability to have asked them to do so on this one.
    Like with the issue of double taxation /withholding taxes, it will require primary legislation in a number of countries
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    I can't imagine what a state we'd be in now if we'd had Boris or Leadsom, even without the GE. Most probably they would have provoked an anti-Brexit backlash by now and we would be well on the way to a second vote.
    I can.

    But then I have a vivid imagination.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Sadly you don't have to make stuff up to smear Corbyn, you just have look into his past. His election as leader and his duplicitous attitude to Brexit has proved a disaster for Labour and I say that as someone who was a member up to a couple of years ago.
    Yes his bringing the Labour party back to a realistic shot of winning was terrible...

    If Corbyn had gone the 2nd referendum route the Tories would have won a majority and done what they wanted with Brexit. It is all well and good to complain about what he's done but without him Labour wouldn't have this power to effect Brexit anyway.
    If Labour do affect Brexit it will only be when 80% of the MPs ignore Corbyn and do some thing in line with their remain supporting members and voters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,883

    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?

    No it was the whine appreciation meeting aka PMQs.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Mr Jezziah, please tell us, pray, what are the latest approval ratings for Magic Grandpa? Slightly better than shit or slightly worse? This government is atrocious, but it is not being held to account because the LoTO is an idiot with as much credibility as a potential PM as Mr Bean. He is a sick joke. It is high time there was a realignment in British politics, and it isn't the "Back to the 70s" realignment that Corbyn's gullible following think they would like. We need a proper grown up in charge of the Labour Party as a good start, not someone who thinks he is being "edgy" in his Grammar School Sixth Form common room.

    This argument from centrists is quite a silly one.

    You say Corbyn is rubbish and the reason you give is because of his lack of popularity.

    The reason Corbyn is where he is is because he was more popular than the angry, entitled, arrogant, smug, ignorant, old, xenophobic, gammon tendency you represent which has unsuccessfully opposed him each step of the way.
    Haha that is really very funny. Sorry to "abuse" you, but I can see why you follow him, you really are, well, how can I put it, not exactly at the front of the queue when the little grey cells were handed out.

    Corbyn is all of those things you just accused others of, but you are too stupid or blind to see it. Prep-school educated, brought up in a manor house, posh, wanna-be intellectual upper middle class family, goes to top grammar school in the country, can't get into university, but is still staggeringly smug, very arrogant, certainly anti-Semitic. He is an entitled moron who is massively out his depth. Am I angry about it? Too right I am. He is the one that is equally to blame for the mess that we are in, but then as one of his unquestioning acolytes you are probably quite pleased about the chaos, so that it makes a new dawn of socialist utopia more likely. Pathetic.
    TBH you come across to me exactly as you see Corbyn, I'd have you down as one the first sign ups to the future governing party in 1930's Germany. You would finally find the perfect match for your impotent rage.

    As we have such different views of the world it does seem pointless us talking and your usually rude anyway so that is why I don't bother.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    IanB2 said:

    justin124 said:

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    I disagree there. Huhne was a much higher profile figure yet the LibDems held on to Eastleigh at the by election with the Tories falling to third place behind UKIP. If the LibDems could overcome the unpopularity of the Coalition , Labour's prospects in Peterborough should not be too bleak.
    Huhne was however more contrite and more honest, at least pleading guilty, and there were elements of his story that could generate a little sympathy. And the LibDems are very strong in Eastleigh, threw everything at that by-election, and were lucky in that the Tory/UKIP vote split almost evenly. (Indeed as an aside there is an argument that Eastleigh made the LibDems complacent about the challenge of holding their seats in 2015, thinking they could repeat the trick).

    Labour's MP has been dishonest from the start and clearly lied to the court. As a new MP I'd expect Labour to take a knock, and with them currently dipping in the polls, if it were imminent I'd bet on a Tory gain. By 2019 everything might look different.
    If the Tories were 15% - 20% ahead nationally - as at the time of the Copeland by election- I might agree - but that is not where we appear to be now.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Sadly you don't have to make stuff up to smear Corbyn, you just have look into his past. His election as leader and his duplicitous attitude to Brexit has proved a disaster for Labour and I say that as someone who was a member up to a couple of years ago.
    Yes his bringing the Labour party back to a realistic shot of winning was terrible...

    If Corbyn had gone the 2nd referendum route the Tories would have won a majority and done what they wanted with Brexit. It is all well and good to complain about what he's done but without him Labour wouldn't have this power to effect Brexit anyway.
    A large part of LAB's surprise result at GE2017 came from anti-Brexit tactical voters like me switching to LAB because we thought it was the best option.

    Never again my friend.
    I hope, but can't be sure, that we will have a positive effect on Brexit from a softer or more remainer perspective. Although in fairness I suspect your tactical vote would be gone regardless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    DavidL said:

    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?

    No it was the whine appreciation meeting aka PMQs.
    Nobody appreciated the whining. Endured it, perhaps.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Hold on a minute the Cabinet, which had Brexiteers in it agreed to the GE as did MPs. I agree the PM is not very good at her job hence 117 MPs from her own party think anybody else would be better than her at the job!
    Well indeed. When the election was called I was very excited. By the time of the vote I was annoyed and upset.

    So many avoidable mistakes. Cameron, Osborme and Crosby had won the election previously with a strong focus on the economy. Being faced by literal Marxists who want to "smash capitalism." May had nothing worthwhile to say on the economy and silenced her Cabinet.

    But then she had nothing worthwhile to say on anything else either and chickened out of the debates. It was an utterly avoidable disaster and frankly the result she deserved. In 2015 I delivered leaflets for a hard working ultra marginal MP who won his seat against the odds. By 2017 I had moved away so did not again but in an avoidable election he lost thanks in no small part to May's shortcomings.
    Let’s not forget the silver lining of GE17; the SNP’s forward march was brought to a shuddering halt.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?

    No it was the whine appreciation meeting aka PMQs.
    Nobody appreciated the whining. Endured it, perhaps.
    We all enjoyed the wine, though.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.

    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Sadly you don't have to make stuff up to smear Corbyn, you just have look into his past. His election as leader and his duplicitous attitude to Brexit has proved a disaster for Labour and I say that as someone who was a member up to a couple of years ago.
    Yes his bringing the Labour party back to a realistic shot of winning was terrible...

    If Corbyn had gone the 2nd referendum route the Tories would have won a majority and done what they wanted with Brexit. It is all well and good to complain about what he's done but without him Labour wouldn't have this power to effect Brexit anyway.
    A large part of LAB's surprise result at GE2017 came from anti-Brexit tactical voters like me switching to LAB because we thought it was the best option.

    Never again my friend.
    This amazes me.

    I can understand ordinary voters, most of whom don't pay any attention to politics outside election time, making this mistake.

    But the proprietor of this site not realising that Corbyn has always been a Eurosceptic?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Just another quiet day at Westminster then? :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?

    No it was the whine appreciation meeting aka PMQs.
    Nobody appreciated the whining. Endured it, perhaps.
    We all enjoyed the wine, though.
    I enjoy a good wine as much as the next man.

    But that session was corked, rather than corking.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.
    Who expected a Remainer to take charge, throw away the cards and neuter the negotiations?

    Given Remainer May spiked the negotiations in 2017, quotes from 2016 are trumped by that.
    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Well without the benefit of hindsight how like a scenario was a Remainer taking over, throwing away the Parliamentary majority, throwing away a 20% poll lead, throwing away all our cards and protesting herself in desperation before Europe?
    Hold on a minute the Cabinet, which had Brexiteers in it agreed to the GE as did MPs. I agree the PM is not very good at her job hence 117 MPs from her own party think anybody else would be better than her at the job!
    Well indeed. When the election was called I was very excited. By the time of the vote I was annoyed and upset.

    So many avoidable mistakes. Cameron, Osborme and Crosby had won the election previously with a strong focus on the economy. Being faced by literal Marxists who want to "smash capitalism." May had nothing worthwhile to say on the economy and silenced her Cabinet.

    But then she had nothing worthwhile to say on anything else either and chickened out of the debates. It was an utterly avoidable disaster and frankly the result she deserved. In 2015 I delivered leaflets for a hard working ultra marginal MP who won his seat against the odds. By 2017 I had moved away so did not again but in an avoidable election he lost thanks in no small part to May's shortcomings.
    Let’s not forget the silver lining of GE17; the SNP’s forward march was brought to a shuddering halt.
    Tbf To have continued forwards was pretty much impossible.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Mr Jezziah, please tell us, pray, what are the latest approval ratings for Magic Grandpa? Slightly better than shit or slightly worse? This government is atrocious, but it is not being held to account because the LoTO is an idiot with as much credibility as a potential PM as Mr Bean. He is a sick joke. It is high time there was a realignment in British politics, and it isn't the "Back to the 70s" realignment that Corbyn's gullible following think they would like. We need a proper grown up in charge of the Labour Party as a good start, not someone who thinks he is being "edgy" in his Grammar School Sixth Form common room.

    This argument from centrists is quite a silly one.

    You say Corbyn is rubbish and the reason you give is because of his lack of popularity.

    The reason Corbyn is where he is is because he was more popular than the angry, entitled, arrogant, smug, ignorant, old, xenophobic, gammon tendency you represent which has unsuccessfully opposed him each step of the way.
    Haha that is really very funny. Sorry to "abuse" you, but I can see why you follow him, you really are, well, how can I put it, not exactly at the front of the queue when the little grey cells were handed out.

    Corbyn is all of those things you just accused others of, but you are too stupid or blind to see it. Prep-school educated, brought up in a manor house, posh, wanna-be intellectual upper middle class family, goes to top grammar school in the country, can't get into university, but is still staggeringly smug, very arrogant, certainly anti-Semitic. He is an entitled moron who is massively out his depth. Am I angry about it? Too right I am. He is the one that is equally to blame for the mess that we are in, but then as one of his unquestioning acolytes you are probably quite pleased about the chaos, so that it makes a new dawn of socialist utopia more likely. Pathetic.
    TBH you come across to me exactly as you see Corbyn, I'd have you down as one the first sign ups to the future governing party in 1930's Germany. You would finally find the perfect match for your impotent rage.

    As we have such different views of the world it does seem pointless us talking and your usually rude anyway so that is why I don't bother.
    You call him a Nazi and then complain that he is rude?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Life in Tory Britain, where a homeless man can be found dying metres away from the entrance to Parliament. He had a job, but couldn't afford to live in London on what he was earning. He collapsed near the revolving doors into Parliament, a victim of the cold. Died in hospital.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/homeless-man-dies-metres-from-westminster-entrance_uk_5c1a621de4b0432554c6a3b6

    I think we should remember this man, when a Tory MP next tells us we have "record numbers of people in employment".

    This man was part of those record numbers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Donny43 said:

    Mr Jezziah, please tell us, pray, what are the latest approval ratings for Magic Grandpa? Slightly better than shit or slightly worse? This government is atrocious, but it is not being held to account because the LoTO is an idiot with as much credibility as a potential PM as Mr Bean. He is a sick joke. It is high time there was a realignment in British politics, and it isn't the "Back to the 70s" realignment that Corbyn's gullible following think they would like. We need a proper grown up in charge of the Labour Party as a good start, not someone who thinks he is being "edgy" in his Grammar School Sixth Form common room.

    This argument from centrists is quite a silly one.

    You say Corbyn is rubbish and the reason you give is because of his lack of popularity.

    The reason Corbyn is where he is is because he was more popular than the angry, entitled, arrogant, smug, ignorant, old, xenophobic, gammon tendency you represent which has unsuccessfully opposed him each step of the way.
    Haha that is really very funny. Sorry to "abuse" you, but I can see why you follow him, you really are, well, how can I put it, not exactly at the front of the queue when the little grey cells were handed out.

    Corbyn is all of those things you just accused others of, but you are too stupid or blind to see it. Prep-school educated, brought up in a manor house, posh, wanna-be intellectual upper middle class family, goes to top grammar school in the country, can't get into university, but is still staggeringly smug, very arrogant, certainly anti-Semitic. He is an entitled moron who is massively out his depth. Am I angry about it? Too right I am. He is the one that is equally to blame for the mess that we are in, but then as one of his unquestioning acolytes you are probably quite pleased about the chaos, so that it makes a new dawn of socialist utopia more likely. Pathetic.
    TBH you come across to me exactly as you see Corbyn, I'd have you down as one the first sign ups to the future governing party in 1930's Germany. You would finally find the perfect match for your impotent rage.

    As we have such different views of the world it does seem pointless us talking and your usually rude anyway so that is why I don't bother.
    You call him a Nazi and then complain that he is rude?
    I think the aim was for a good win...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Life in Tory Britain, where a homeless man can be found dying metres away from the entrance to Parliament. He had a job, but couldn't afford to live in London on what he was earning. He collapsed near the revolving doors into Parliament, a victim of the cold. Died in hospital.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/homeless-man-dies-metres-from-westminster-entrance_uk_5c1a621de4b0432554c6a3b6

    I think we should remember this man, when a Tory MP next tells us we have "record numbers of people in employment".

    This man was part of those record numbers.

    Did things like this not happen between 1997 and 2010?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Life in Tory Britain, where a homeless man can be found dying metres away from the entrance to Parliament. He had a job, but couldn't afford to live in London on what he was earning. He collapsed near the revolving doors into Parliament, a victim of the cold. Died in hospital.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/homeless-man-dies-metres-from-westminster-entrance_uk_5c1a621de4b0432554c6a3b6

    I think we should remember this man, when a Tory MP next tells us we have "record numbers of people in employment".

    This man was part of those record numbers.

    It says "had recently found work", so he may not even have been paid yet. One wonders why he didn't ask his employer to help - or if he did, why they didn't.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Donny43 said:

    Mr Jezziah, please tell us, pray, what are the latest approval ratings for Magic Grandpa? Slightly better than shit or slightly worse? This government is atrocious, but it is not being held to account because the LoTO is an idiot with as much credibility as a potential PM as Mr Bean. He is a sick joke. It is high time there was a realignment in British politics, and it isn't the "Back to the 70s" realignment that Corbyn's gullible following think they would like. We need a proper grown up in charge of the Labour Party as a good start, not someone who thinks he is being "edgy" in his Grammar School Sixth Form common room.

    This argument from centrists is quite a silly one.

    You say Corbyn is rubbish and the reason you give is because of his lack of popularity.

    The reason Corbyn is where he is is because he was more popular than the angry, entitled, arrogant, smug, ignorant, old, xenophobic, gammon tendency you represent which has unsuccessfully opposed him each step of the way.
    Haha that is really very funny. Sorry to "abuse" you, but I can see why you follow him, you really are, well, how can I put it, not exactly at the front of the queue when the little grey cells were handed out.

    Corbyn is all of those things you just accused others of, but you are too stupid or blind to see it. Prep-school educated, brought up in a manor house, posh, wanna-be intellectual upper middle class family, goes to top grammar school in the country, can't get into university, but is still staggeringly smug, very arrogant, certainly anti-Semitic. He is an entitled moron who is massively out his depth. Am I angry about it? Too right I am. He is the one that is equally to blame for the mess that we are in, but then as one of his unquestioning acolytes you are probably quite pleased about the chaos, so that it makes a new dawn of socialist utopia more likely. Pathetic.
    TBH you come across to me exactly as you see Corbyn, I'd have you down as one the first sign ups to the future governing party in 1930's Germany. You would finally find the perfect match for your impotent rage.

    As we have such different views of the world it does seem pointless us talking and your usually rude anyway so that is why I don't bother.
    You call him a Nazi and then complain that he is rude?
    He's constantly rude and angry, I usually just ignore him. Just decided to let him know how he comes across before I go back to not rising to it, it certainly was rude.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.


    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.

    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Hold on a minute the Cabinet, which had Brexiteers in it agreed to the GE as did MPs. I agree the PM is not very good at her job hence 117 MPs from her own party think anybody else would be better than her at the job!
    Well indeed. When the election was called I was very excited. By the time of the vote I was annoyed and upset.

    So many avoidable mistakes. Cameron, Osborme and Crosby had won the election previously with a strong focus on the economy. Being faced by literal Marxists who want to "smash capitalism." May had nothing worthwhile to say on the economy and silenced her Cabinet.

    But then she had nothing worthwhile to say on anything else either and chickened out of the debates. It was an utterly avoidable disaster and frankly the result she deserved. In 2015 I delivered leaflets for a hard working ultra marginal MP who won his seat against the odds. By 2017 I had moved away so did not again but in an avoidable election he lost thanks in no small part to May's shortcomings.
    The ground game does make a real difference in a marginal seat.

    If the Tories really were targeting places like Bolsover then they were wasting their time and money and whoever authorised it had clearly poor judgement. When I am talking targeting by Tories I am talking about the real targets not paper ones! The seats where they engage call centres, mail shots, canvassing, rallies and the like. Every seat can be described as a target if held by the opposition but in reality resources can only be focused on about 10% of H of C seats, which will have a possibility of influencing the overall party result.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Life in Tory Britain, where a homeless man can be found dying metres away from the entrance to Parliament. He had a job, but couldn't afford to live in London on what he was earning. He collapsed near the revolving doors into Parliament, a victim of the cold. Died in hospital.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/homeless-man-dies-metres-from-westminster-entrance_uk_5c1a621de4b0432554c6a3b6

    I think we should remember this man, when a Tory MP next tells us we have "record numbers of people in employment".

    This man was part of those record numbers.

    Over many, many years - arguably (unbelievably) since the closure of workhouses in 1948 - one of the big shortcomings of our national housing policy is the total lack of temporary hostel accommodation for the homeless - especially the vulnerable homeless (e.g. people fleeing domestic violence). I don't see however any sign that any party is making a meaningful move to solve that.
  • My first has been deleted.... Where's lady chakrabati to look into this abuse

    So who do you want as Spurs manager when Poch does one to Man U or Real next summer?
    We close our eyes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    edited December 2018
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?

    No it was the whine appreciation meeting aka PMQs.
    Nobody appreciated the whining. Endured it, perhaps.
    We all enjoyed the wine, though.
    I enjoy a good wine as much as the next man.

    But that session was corked, rather than corking.
    'Someone' has to do 'something' about PMQ's. Somewhere there are thoughts about 'not fit for purpose'!

    Apologies for breaking the whine/wine sequence! And the spelling!!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.


    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.

    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Hold on a minute the Cabinet, which had Brexiteers in it agreed to the GE as did MPs. I agree the PM is not very good at her job hence 117 MPs from her own party think anybody else would be better than her at the job!
    Well indeed. When the election was called I was very excited. By the time of the vote I was annoyed and upset.

    So many avoidable mistakes. Cameron, Osborme and Crosby had won the election previously with a strong focus on the economy. Being faced by literal Marxists who want to "smash capitalism." May had nothing worthwhile to say on the economy and silenced her Cabinet.

    But then she had nothing worthwhile to say on anything else either and chickened out of the debates. It was an utterly avoidable disaster and frankly the result she deserved. In 2015 I delivered leaflets for a hard working ultra marginal MP who won his seat against the odds. By 2017 I had moved away so did not again but in an avoidable election he lost thanks in no small part to May's shortcomings.
    The ground game does make a real difference in a marginal seat.

    This is where Labour have a huge advantage now, the Labour membership is huge, young and enthusiastic. In terms of volunteers Labour can hit very optimistic targets with bigger numbers than the Conservatives could get to key marginals.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    OllyT said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Sadly you don't have to make stuff up to smear Corbyn, you just have look into his past. His election as leader and his duplicitous attitude to Brexit has proved a disaster for Labour and I say that as someone who was a member up to a couple of years ago.
    Yes his bringing the Labour party back to a realistic shot of winning was terrible...

    If Corbyn had gone the 2nd referendum route the Tories would have won a majority and done what they wanted with Brexit. It is all well and good to complain about what he's done but without him Labour wouldn't have this power to effect Brexit anyway.
    A large part of LAB's surprise result at GE2017 came from anti-Brexit tactical voters like me switching to LAB because we thought it was the best option.

    Never again my friend.
    Citation needed
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,742
    Fine upstanding Brexiteers tell Anna Soubry she's "on the side of Adolf Hitler".

    https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1075448896791474176
  • My first has been deleted.... Where's lady chakrabati to look into this abuse

    So who do you want as Spurs manager when Poch does one to Man U or Real next summer?
    We close our eyes.
    I reckon you should go for Arsene Wenger, we all know former Arsenal managers win trophies for Spurs.

    Let's face it, George Graham has won more trophies for Spurs than Poch, Redknapp, and Gross combined.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited December 2018

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?

    No it was the whine appreciation meeting aka PMQs.
    Nobody appreciated the whining. Endured it, perhaps.
    We all enjoyed the wine, though.
    I enjoy a good wine as much as the next man.

    But that session was corked, rather than corking.
    'Someone' has to do 'something' about PMQ's. Somewhere there are thoughts about 'not fit for purpose'!

    Apologies for breaking the whine/wine sequence! And the spelling!!
    Bercow made a good start but he's lost it. Time for a new Speaker to get a grip.

    Edit - how about, he's now firkin up all the time and needs to be thrown away as only the dregs are left?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Just come to this; had a Wine Appreciation meeting this afternoon. Is this where the phrase 'stupid woman' was used?

    No it was the whine appreciation meeting aka PMQs.
    Nobody appreciated the whining. Endured it, perhaps.
    We all enjoyed the wine, though.
    I enjoy a good wine as much as the next man.

    But that session was corked, rather than corking.
    'Someone' has to do 'something' about PMQ's. Somewhere there are thoughts about 'not fit for purpose'!

    Apologies for breaking the whine/wine sequence! And the spelling!!
    Bercow made a good start but he's lost it. Time for a new Speaker to get a grip.
    Strongly suspect that you are right.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The Tories are on the verge of a nervous breakdown

    Daniel Finkelstein

    The party is so divided on Brexit that it may end up splitting – and losing elections – like it did a hundred years ago"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/tories-on-the-edge-of-a-nervous-breakdown-wzc36rt7f
  • Mr "Jezziah" Momentum is the nearest political movement to the Nazis we have ever seen in this country. Thuggish, violent and anti-Semitic. I don't really care if you think I am rude. You are either a useful idiot or you actively condone the thugs that support Corbyn, so you are in a much worse moral place than I am. Sorry if you think that is rude you pathetic little snowflake (OK that last bit was rude, but who cares; I am referring to a Corbyn apologist)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Fine upstanding Brexiteers tell Anna Soubry she's "on the side of Adolf Hitler".

    https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1075448896791474176

    Brexitsm has the ugliest underbelly.

    It’s like that scene in Mitchell and Webb. When are the Brexiters going to realise that they are the baddies?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    AndyJS said:

    "The Tories are on the verge of a nervous breakdown

    Daniel Finkelstein

    The party is so divided on Brexit that it may end up splitting – and losing elections – like it did a hundred years ago"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/tories-on-the-edge-of-a-nervous-breakdown-wzc36rt7f

    What is he talking about? The Tariff Reform split? That was never formal and after 1913 wasn't an issue. Admittedly it hurt them badly in certain seats in 1906, e.g. Greenwich.

    The Corn Laws? This hasn't lasted that long - yet (the last Peelite politician to split from the Tories in 1846 left office in 1894, still unreconciled).

    I think this is new, but that doesn't mean it isn't nasty. The chief parallel with 1900-1906 is the other side is equally badly split - but there is no Asquith to sort matters out.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    AndyJS said:

    "The Tories are on the verge of a nervous breakdown

    Daniel Finkelstein

    The party is so divided on Brexit that it may end up splitting – and losing elections – like it did a hundred years ago"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/tories-on-the-edge-of-a-nervous-breakdown-wzc36rt7f

    Theresa should have thought about that before assuming the mantle of “fuck the economy, fuck the union, and fuck the young”.

    I don’t know if the Tories will split, but if Labour can replace Corbyn - a big if, of course - they will win the next general election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited December 2018

    Mr "Jezziah" Momentum is the nearest political movement to the Nazis we have ever seen in this country. Thuggish, violent and anti-Semitic. I don't really care if you think I am rude. You are either a useful idiot or you actively condone the thugs that support Corbyn, so you are in a much worse moral place than I am. Sorry if you think that is rude you pathetic little snowflake (OK that last bit was rude, but who cares; I am referring to a Corbyn apologist)

    While I concede that many of Momentum's members are undoubtedly racist, and thuggish, and indeed violent, I don't think you can credibly say an organisation founded and led by a Jew is anti-Semitic.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.


    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.

    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.
    Hold on a minute the Cabinet, which had Brexiteers in it agreed to the GE as did MPs. I agree the PM is not very good at her job hence 117 MPs from her own party think anybody else would be better than her at the job!
    Well indeed. When the election was called I was very excited. By the time of the vote I was annoyed and upset.

    So many avoidable mistakes. Cameron, Osborme and Crosby had won the election previously with a strong focus on the economy. Being faced by literal Marxists who want to "smash capitalism." May had nothing worthwhile to say on the economy and silenced her Cabinet.

    But then she had nothing worthwhile to say on anything else either and chickened out of the debates. It was an utterly avoidable disaster and frankly the result she deserved. In 2015 I delivered leaflets for a hard working ultra marginal MP who won his seat against the odds. By 2017 I had moved away so did not again but in an avoidable election he lost thanks in no small part to May's shortcomings.
    The ground game does make a real difference in a marginal seat.

    This is where Labour have a huge advantage now, the Labour membership is huge, young and enthusiastic. In terms of volunteers Labour can hit very optimistic targets with bigger numbers than the Conservatives could get to key marginals.
    Wandsworth? Barnet? Westminster?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.


    Or he is a complete moron.
    'The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.'

    Michael Gove 9th of April 2016.

    Exactly my point he had no concept of scenario analysis.

    So moron it is.

    So many avoidable mistakes. Cameron, Osborme and Crosby had won the election previously with a strong focus on the economy. Being faced by literal Marxists who want to "smash capitalism." May had nothing worthwhile to say on the economy and silenced her Cabinet.

    But then she had nothing worthwhile to say on anything else either and chickened out of the debates. It was an utterly avoidable disaster and frankly the result she deserved. In 2015 I delivered leaflets for a hard working ultra marginal MP who won his seat against the odds. By 2017 I had moved away so did not again but in an avoidable election he lost thanks in no small part to May's shortcomings.
    The ground game does make a real difference in a marginal seat.

    This is where Labour have a huge advantage now, the Labour membership is huge, young and enthusiastic. In terms of volunteers Labour can hit very optimistic targets with bigger numbers than the Conservatives could get to key marginals.
    True, however the message, the agenda and the leadership will all be a detraction from the Labour party at the next election. The Tories focused their efforts on the wrong constituencies in 2017 and Labour could easily repeat the mistake next time around.

    Another thing to remember is 2017 was a blank canvass in terms of the Labour parties appeal to the electorate. I have a feeling that the next Labour manifesto will be a real corker in terms of radicalism and extending the role of the state. It is not the sort of thing I could vote for I hasten to add.
This discussion has been closed.