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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marg

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    If this is an ultra marginal what is that Scottish seat won by 2 votes?

    Tighter than a Scotsman.
    That's a whisky comment to make.
    I’m a Yorkshireman, I’m allowed to make that comment.
    I shall look forward to Malcolm giving his Views on that subject an Ayring...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    I'll go for Dartford then.
    Is the right answer, it's been getting General Elections right since 1964. But it now has a Tory majority of 13,186 (24.4%).
    Bet the Tories could have wished for a majority of 2 there and an extra thousand votes in Canterbury, Kensington, Stroud, Newcastle under Lyme etc...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494

    You do get the impression that this has been drawn up by people who will neither have to implement these plans nor live with the consequences (electoral among others) of them....

    They are bureaucrats implementing EU law.
    I saw a number of ultra-Brexiteers on twitter spitting with rage that the EU hasn't reciprocated the automatic right of residence for UK citizens in the EU. It can't, because its not within the competency of the EU to order member states to accept citizens of third countries.

    So, what we have here is Brexiteers now demanding the EU massively overreach its powers.

    Funny old world.
    The 27 have been admirably quick conferring on other issues; I don't think it's beyond the bounds of reasonability to have asked them to do so on this one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    I'll go for Dartford then.
    Is the right answer, it's been getting General Elections right since 1964. But it now has a Tory majority of 13,186 (24.4%).
    Bet the Tories could have wished for a majority of 2 there and an extra thousand votes in Canterbury, Kensington, Stroud, Newcastle under Lyme etc...
    With the exception of Canterbury, Kent has become very Conservative.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    I'll go for Dartford then.
    Is the right answer, it's been getting General Elections right since 1964. But it now has a Tory majority of 13,186 (24.4%).
    Bet the Tories could have wished for a majority of 2 there and an extra thousand votes in Canterbury, Kensington, Stroud, Newcastle under Lyme etc...
    With the exception of Canterbury, Kent has become very Conservative.
    Likewise pretty much all the West Country outside Bristol, Exeter and Plymouth.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Stewart Jackson poss back.. That will liven things up a bit, esp for an ex contributor to these pages. A twitter account will go nuts!
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    I'll go for Dartford then.
    Is the right answer, it's been getting General Elections right since 1964. But it now has a Tory majority of 13,186 (24.4%).
    Bet the Tories could have wished for a majority of 2 there and an extra thousand votes in Canterbury, Kensington, Stroud, Newcastle under Lyme etc...
    With the exception of Canterbury, Kent has become very Conservative.
    Canterbury was lost at least in part because Brazier reneged on his promise to retire.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^list:PaulGoodmanCH:news_tweets&ref_url=https://www.conservativehome.com/

    Not content with calling for the sacking of journalists, Andrew Adonis now wants civil servants to be sacked for implementing Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?
  • Donny43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    Anyone care to guess which Kent seat is the current longest-standing bellwether? Though judging by its majority it's fairly unlikely to retain that status if and when Labour win an election.
    Gravesend?
    That's now Gravesham, and it is a superb bellwether, from 1918 to 2017 - but with the exception of 2005, so it's not the right answer.
    I'll go for Dartford then.
    Is the right answer, it's been getting General Elections right since 1964. But it now has a Tory majority of 13,186 (24.4%).
    Bet the Tories could have wished for a majority of 2 there and an extra thousand votes in Canterbury, Kensington, Stroud, Newcastle under Lyme etc...
    With the exception of Canterbury, Kent has become very Conservative.
    Canterbury was lost at least in part because Brazier reneged on his promise to retire.
    You can’t trust the word of a Brexiteer.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^list:PaulGoodmanCH:news_tweets&ref_url=https://www.conservativehome.com/

    Not content with calling for the sacking of journalists, Andrew Adonis now wants civil servants to be sacked for implementing Brexit.

    It's as embarrassing for a remainer to be on the same side as Andrew Adonis, as it is for a leaver to be on the same side as Andrew Bridgen.

    Clearly something weird happens to anyone called Andrew.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^list:PaulGoodmanCH:news_tweets&ref_url=https://www.conservativehome.com/

    Not content with calling for the sacking of journalists, Andrew Adonis now wants civil servants to be sacked for implementing Brexit.

    It's as embarrassing for a remainer to be on the same side as Andrew Adonis, as it is for a leaver to be on the same side as Andrew Bridgen.

    Clearly something weird happens to anyone called Andrew.
    To quote TSE, Andrew Bridgen and Andrew Adonis are two cheeks of the same arse.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    Rutland has had a Conservative MP since 1841, although the second MP was a Liberal up till 1859. after that, both were Conservatives, and the sole MP since 1885 has been a Conservative.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Floater said:

    My first has been deleted.... Where's lady chakrabati to look into this abuse

    No, we need someone independent to adjudicate... like TSE
    Can you take it to the ECJ?
  • Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^list:PaulGoodmanCH:news_tweets&ref_url=https://www.conservativehome.com/

    Not content with calling for the sacking of journalists, Andrew Adonis now wants civil servants to be sacked for implementing Brexit.

    It's as embarrassing for a remainer to be on the same side as Andrew Adonis, as it is for a leaver to be on the same side as Andrew Bridgen.

    Clearly something weird happens to anyone called Andrew.
    To quote TSE, Andrew Bridgen and Andrew Adonis are two cheeks of the same arse.
    My favourite Lord Adonis tweet was the one him complaining about the unelected elite (who persuaded the country to back Brexit).
  • Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    Everybody who thought immediately that he had definitely said "stupid people" waited until after his spokesman confirmed it to make their definite, immediate view known.

    Funny that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Stewart Jackson poss back.. That will liven things up a bit, esp for an ex contributor to these pages. A twitter account will go nuts!


    Don't the Tories already have a candidate?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
    It was Liberal from 1904 to 1906.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sean_F said:


    Not content with calling for the sacking of journalists, Andrew Adonis now wants civil servants to be sacked for implementing Brexit.

    Brexit derangement syndrome. Both extremes of that debate have been driven insane.
  • Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    Everybody who thought immediately that he had definitely said "stupid people" waited until after his spokesman confirmed it to make their definite, immediate view known.

    Funny that.
    The right wingers who thought he said stupid women waited until the Conservatives twitter told them he did...

    Funny that.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Stewart Jackson poss back.. That will liven things up a bit, esp for an ex contributor to these pages. A twitter account will go nuts!


    Don't the Tories already have a candidate?
    Yes the Tories do have a candidate.

    I don't think Jackson is going to run as an independent as he would get very few votes. He is not a people person by all accounts!
  • Mr. Herdson, bellwether*.

    A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.

    That could be used as a completely different political metaphor! ie. "The whips office managed to make the Honourable member for Suchansuch a mere bellwether to guide the other backbenchers"
  • Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    North Shropshire (Oswestry to Market Drayton) = Tory since 1835. Paterson's descendants are probably safe until 2200.

    We didn't abolish rotten boroughs, we just reduced the number.
    Ah, but Oswestry went Liberal in a 1904 by-election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    It looks like as a result of this court verdict there will be a by election in Peterborough and opportunities for both the Tories and UKIP in this very marginal Labour seat with a big Leave majority
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    Rutland has had a Conservative MP since 1841, although the second MP was a Liberal up till 1859. after that, both were Conservatives, and the sole MP since 1885 has been a Conservative.
    Horsham has been Tory since 1880.
  • If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !
  • Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^list:PaulGoodmanCH:news_tweets&ref_url=https://www.conservativehome.com/

    Not content with calling for the sacking of journalists, Andrew Adonis now wants civil servants to be sacked for implementing Brexit.

    Hmm, making himself look rather foolish on that one. The Remain equivalent of the nasty little fascists who suggest that judges should be sacked for making a judgement they don't like, or that anyone opposing Brexit is a "traitor"
  • If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Andrew said:

    Sean_F said:


    Not content with calling for the sacking of journalists, Andrew Adonis now wants civil servants to be sacked for implementing Brexit.

    Brexit derangement syndrome. Both extremes of that debate have been driven insane.
    Adonis has the problem of taking a reasonable point and driving it a bit too far, and swerving off the road into the grass verge of WTF.

    The idea that civil servants have been quietly letting the Tories shepherd the country towards disaster is ludicrous. If anything the civil service has worked very hard to try to square May's impossible circles and limit the damage her government can do.

    There is only so much the civil service can truly do if the government is absolutely determined to drive us off a cliff edge. But never underestimate the power of the civil service to file the rough edges of ministers' stupidity.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Really?

    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79
    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79/status/1072493069109526533

    "The Bristow's our and about again" - I'm pretty sure TSE will confirm the leaver in that grammar..
    Photographed with his entire canvassing team.
  • Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,172

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
  • If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    How many times in the last 35 years has the governing party won a seat from the opposition?
  • Mr. Foremain, quite.

    Mr. F, if we don't burn the heretics, the heresy will only spread.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    Rutland has had a Conservative MP since 1841, although the second MP was a Liberal up till 1859. after that, both were Conservatives, and the sole MP since 1885 has been a Conservative.
    Horsham has been Tory since 1880.
    Fat lot of good it’s done us.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited December 2018

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Stewart Jackson poss back.. That will liven things up a bit, esp for an ex contributor to these pages. A twitter account will go nuts!


    Don't the Tories already have a candidate?
    Oh, I've just realised I know him. I used to campaign with him down on the Isle of Dogs, before my incident with a deputy prime minister. Quiet, dull type.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Anorak said:

    It's as embarrassing for a remainer to be on the same side as Andrew Adonis, as it is for a leaver to be on the same side as Andrew Bridgen.

    Clearly something weird happens to anyone called Andrew.


    Can confirm.
  • Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    But as many of us pointed out at the time, No Deal was a very strong possibility.

    We were shouted down because Gove et al were tired of experts.
  • You do get the impression that this has been drawn up by people who will neither have to implement these plans nor live with the consequences (electoral among others) of them....

    They are bureaucrats implementing EU law.
    I saw a number of ultra-Brexiteers on twitter spitting with rage that the EU hasn't reciprocated the automatic right of residence for UK citizens in the EU. It can't, because its not within the competency of the EU to order member states to accept citizens of third countries.

    So, what we have here is Brexiteers now demanding the EU massively overreach its powers.

    Funny old world.
    The 27 have been admirably quick conferring on other issues; I don't think it's beyond the bounds of reasonability to have asked them to do so on this one.
    Nope, they (the heads of govt of the 27) agreed to delegate powers to M. Barnier. It is the way it works. It is far from the "unaccountable/undemocratic" organisation that Brexit loons believe, or pretend to believe to hoodwink the gullible.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    Everybody who thought immediately that he had definitely said "stupid people" waited until after his spokesman confirmed it to make their definite, immediate view known.

    Funny that.
    I could not comment on the internet as was not able to connect.

    I thought at the time he was referring to their (Tories) asinine behaviour. The Tories should count themselves as lucky that Corbyn has been in the crosshair of media attention as I do not judge the Tories behaviour in parliament today as fitting the standards sane people expect given the backdrop.

    I am not a Corbyn supporter and I voted Tory in 2017 despite my reservations because of Brexit. If I thought the Tories were behaving badly, I would be interested to see what other voters thought of her pantomime antics. Pathetic!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Is North Hampshire -> Basingstoke -> Aldershot the most consistently Tory (Or seat for any party) constituency in the country, being a gain from the Whigs in 1857 ?

    Rutland has had a Conservative MP since 1841, although the second MP was a Liberal up till 1859. after that, both were Conservatives, and the sole MP since 1885 has been a Conservative.
    Horsham has been Tory since 1880.
    Fat lot of good it’s done us.
    Politicians don't do gratitude.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
  • The Tory candidate is an ultra-Brexiteer and has been violently rude about May's deal many times on Twitter.

    Really?

    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79
    https://twitter.com/paulbristow79/status/1072493069109526533

    "The Bristow's our and about again" - I'm pretty sure TSE will confirm the leaver in that grammar..
    Photographed with his entire canvassing team.
    Not just his entire canvassing team, but chosen specifically as one of the youngest Leave voters in the constituency, with a splendid taste in hats
  • If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    No if the Tories win Peterborough they are heading for an overall majority at the next general election, if Labour hold it then no change
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Pulpstar said:

    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !

    All Tories hope so. Splitting the left vote in Peterborough, with 60% Leave, is a Good Thing.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Ah, Twitter. If Twitter were right Remain would have won in 2016 and Corbyn would have won in 2017. And Miliband would probably have won in 2015...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Gove's exact words were that we should leave the single market so that "we can dictate the terms".
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    To be fair I try not to watch PMQ's anymore as I don't find it relevant to my life, it is childish and pathetic. I think you are correct in saying todays events do not matter much but as I said before I felt embarrassed by the PM. She should stick to being serious as she cannot do things alleged to be jokes!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !

    All Tories hope so. Splitting the left vote in Peterborough, with 60% Leave, is a Good Thing.
    It will not be enough to counter-balance the likely Con/UKIP Leave vote split.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Gove's exact words were that we should leave the single market so that "we can dictate the terms".
    Michael Gove, intellectual.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited December 2018

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    You can put the house* on Farage/or some far right stop Brexit type winning the seat if we decide to extend or revoke Article 50 before the by election is held.

    *Not my actual house, maybe £250 max.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Not really Gina Miller territory is it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    I can only admire your optimism:

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=corbyn&client=safari&hl=en-gb&prmd=niv&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjXjpvStqzfAhWBCywKHSlvDOQQ_AUoAXoECBAQAQ&biw=375&bih=559
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    You can put the house* on Farage/or some far right stop Brexit type winning the seat if we decide to extend or revoke Article 50 before the by election is held.

    *Not my actual house, maybe £250 max.
    A house somewhere in the North then.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I believe so. And if she's imprisoned for less than 12 months, during her sentence. Although in that case there might be a recall petition.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I thought I read somehwere that technically she can hold onto her seat even if she is sentenced to up to 12 months in prison? (I may have got that wrong.)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !

    All Tories hope so. Splitting the left vote in Peterborough, with 60% Leave, is a Good Thing.
    It will not be enough to counter-balance the likely Con/UKIP Leave vote split.
    Because UKIP have been performing oh so well in elections recently? I’d be keen to go and door knock in Peterborough if we do get a by election. PB Tory outing?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Donny43 said:

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I believe so. And if she's imprisoned for less than 12 months, during her sentence. Although in that case there might be a recall petition.
    Okay, I now need to know who the last MP was to get sent to prison and not resign their seat.
  • kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Oh dear, no, not the S-word again. How many times do you zealots need to be told, no-one needs to smear Corbyn. He is he a thick, lying little creep who is unsuited to lead a flock of sheep, let alone a country. He is desperately hoping for no-deal so that the country collapses and he might stand a chance of conning the electorate into thinking he is the answer. When a thickhead like Corbyn is the answer you know the question must be majorly fucked up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !

    All Tories hope so. Splitting the left vote in Peterborough, with 60% Leave, is a Good Thing.
    It will not be enough to counter-balance the likely Con/UKIP Leave vote split.
    Because UKIP have been performing oh so well in elections recently? I’d be keen to go and door knock in Peterborough if we do get a by election. PB Tory outing?
    Count me out :wink:
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Yeah it could be very interesting to see what effect Brexit and the minor parties have on it. Given the fairly high leave vote I'd imagine Labour should be fairly safe on their remain flank, if you are voting for remainy Brexit reasons then pragmatism might see you vote for Labour. Bit of a leave backlash against the Tories would be nice from a partisan POV but things are holding steady until something happens with Brexit.

    Guess it depends how long all this takes though, we aren't that far away from decisions having to be made.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !

    All Tories hope so. Splitting the left vote in Peterborough, with 60% Leave, is a Good Thing.
    It will not be enough to counter-balance the likely Con/UKIP Leave vote split.
    Because UKIP have been performing oh so well in elections recently? I’d be keen to go and door knock in Peterborough if we do get a by election. PB Tory outing?
    Count me out :wink:
    Ahh. Us Dorset boys need to stick together!
  • If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    You can put the house* on Farage/or some far right stop Brexit type winning the seat if we decide to extend or revoke Article 50 before the by election is held.

    *Not my actual house, maybe £250 max.
    A house somewhere in the North then.
    The house up the road from me.

    https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-67480414.html
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Donny43 said:

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I believe so. And if she's imprisoned for less than 12 months, during her sentence. Although in that case there might be a recall petition.
    Okay, I now need to know who the last MP was to get sent to prison and not resign their seat.
    My favourite thing about by elections is when people start blocking up their letterboxes and putting up pass-ag signs saying "NO MORE FXKING ELEX LEAFLETS PLEASE".
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Donny43 said:

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I believe so. And if she's imprisoned for less than 12 months, during her sentence. Although in that case there might be a recall petition.
    Okay, I now need to know who the last MP was to get sent to prison and not resign their seat.
    Probably one from the poll tax era when at least one went to prison for non payment of the poll tax!
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !

    All Tories hope so. Splitting the left vote in Peterborough, with 60% Leave, is a Good Thing.
    It will not be enough to counter-balance the likely Con/UKIP Leave vote split.
    Because UKIP have been performing oh so well in elections recently? I’d be keen to go and door knock in Peterborough if we do get a by election. PB Tory outing?
    I'll be there; will let you know when!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Yeah it could be very interesting to see what effect Brexit and the minor parties have on it. Given the fairly high leave vote I'd imagine Labour should be fairly safe on their remain flank, if you are voting for remainy Brexit reasons then pragmatism might see you vote for Labour. Bit of a leave backlash against the Tories would be nice from a partisan POV but things are holding steady until something happens with Brexit.

    Guess it depends how long all this takes though, we aren't that far away from decisions having to be made.
    Do Labour pick a remainer or a leaver as their candidate ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    And they say mcMansions are an American phenomenon.

    I always like to be reminded quite how little taste wealth will buy you.
  • Donny43 said:

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I believe so. And if she's imprisoned for less than 12 months, during her sentence. Although in that case there might be a recall petition.
    Okay, I now need to know who the last MP was to get sent to prison and not resign their seat.
    Terry Fields in 1991 I think.

    Over failure to pay the eminently fair Community Charge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Donny43 said:

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I believe so. And if she's imprisoned for less than 12 months, during her sentence. Although in that case there might be a recall petition.
    Okay, I now need to know who the last MP was to get sent to prison and not resign their seat.
    Probably one from the poll tax era when at least one went to prison for non payment of the poll tax!
    Correct, it was Terry Fields in 1991.
  • If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Not really Gina Miller territory is it?
    She couldn't win but she could potentially make a point (to Labour). I suspect she probably isn't interested in that, but someone else might be.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I know they have no chance but could the yellow peril canvassers try and get some numbers for Peterborough - they are really really good !

    All Tories hope so. Splitting the left vote in Peterborough, with 60% Leave, is a Good Thing.
    It will not be enough to counter-balance the likely Con/UKIP Leave vote split.
    Because UKIP have been performing oh so well in elections recently? I’d be keen to go and door knock in Peterborough if we do get a by election. PB Tory outing?
    I'll be there; will let you know when!
    Excellent. Maybe polling day will be on March 28th - that would be interesting timing!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Donny43 said:

    Assuming there is a by-election, when will it likely be held?

    PS Order-order has this quote which seems to indicate Labour are up for a by-election:
    “The Labour Party is deeply disappointed in Fiona Onasanya’s behaviour. It falls well below what is expected of politicians. She should now resign."

    Does that mean she can hold on to her seat until she's imprisoned?

    I believe so. And if she's imprisoned for less than 12 months, during her sentence. Although in that case there might be a recall petition.
    Okay, I now need to know who the last MP was to get sent to prison and not resign their seat.
    Probably one from the poll tax era when at least one went to prison for non payment of the poll tax!
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/july/11/newsid_2500000/2500365.stm

    Terry Fields?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Not really Gina Miller territory is it?
    She couldn't win but she could potentially make a point (to Labour). I suspect she probably isn't interested in that, but someone else might be.
    Gary Lineker?
  • And they say mcMansions are an American phenomenon.

    I always like to be reminded quite how little taste wealth will buy you.
    My fashion tastes tell you that with great wealth comes great fashion sense.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Ah, Twitter. If Twitter were right Remain would have won in 2016 and Corbyn would have won in 2017. And Miliband would probably have won in 2015...
    And if the right wing echo chambers were right then May would have had her landslide because nobody would consider voting for Corbyn...

    The age of the right wing press baron is starting to move on, when change happens you embrace it or wither away. I only hope other Conservatives share your view.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Donny43 said:

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Not really Gina Miller territory is it?
    She couldn't win but she could potentially make a point (to Labour). I suspect she probably isn't interested in that, but someone else might be.
    Gary Lineker?
    The shouty man who holds up signs by the BBC gazebos in Parliament Square.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Donny43 said:

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Not really Gina Miller territory is it?
    She couldn't win but she could potentially make a point (to Labour). I suspect she probably isn't interested in that, but someone else might be.
    Gary Lineker?
    Surely Mr Lineker would be playing for all three points?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    notme2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Oooo, a marginal!

    We haven't had a by-election in a classic Lab/Tory marginal for a long time AFAIK.
    Copeland?

    Copeland was a labour seat for sixty years and never really thought of as competitive until Corbyn.
    Not true. On present boundaries Copeland would have been Tory in both 1983 and 1987.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    And they say mcMansions are an American phenomenon.

    I always like to be reminded quite how little taste wealth will buy you.
    My fashion tastes tell you that with great wealth comes great fashion sense.
    When do you expect to get rich?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Ah, Twitter. If Twitter were right Remain would have won in 2016 and Corbyn would have won in 2017. And Miliband would probably have won in 2015...
    And if the right wing echo chambers were right then May would have had her landslide because nobody would consider voting for Corbyn...

    The age of the right wing press baron is starting to move on, when change happens you embrace it or wither away. I only hope other Conservatives share your view.
    "other Conservatives"?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    2Nebulous4Juncker
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Oh dear, no, not the S-word again. How many times do you zealots need to be told, no-one needs to smear Corbyn. He is he a thick, lying little creep who is unsuited to lead a flock of sheep, let alone a country. He is desperately hoping for no-deal so that the country collapses and he might stand a chance of conning the electorate into thinking he is the answer. When a thickhead like Corbyn is the answer you know the question must be majorly fucked up.
    Do you angrily abuse people on PB as some kind of cheap alternative to therapy or do you just wind yourself up getting ever more irate as you hit the letters on your keyboard.

    If it is the former then I am happy to be of service, if it is the latter then maybe consider a more relaxing hobby like yoga or something!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Donny43 said:

    If the Tories don’t win back Peterborough, they are going to get steamrollered in the next general election.

    That's a ridiculous statement: governments don't generally make gains at by-elections.
    Going by previous form, they picked up Copeland in a by election and barely hung on to power.

    If they fail to win the seat the next election is as good as over ;)
    The default assumption would be a Labour win, even given Onasanya's disgrace. But a Conservative win is certainly conceivable in these very partisan times.

    I suspect the result may well be affected by which third parties / independents run. A run from Nigel Farage or someone like Gina Miller would be interesting.
    Not really Gina Miller territory is it?
    She couldn't win but she could potentially make a point (to Labour). I suspect she probably isn't interested in that, but someone else might be.
    Gary Lineker?
    Stacey Dooley?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    The problem with Michael Gove's plans has always been that the outcome is not the one he expects.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TOPPING said:

    Project Fear oh wait.

    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1075440331309502464

    Cannot imagine why Gove didn't put this on the side of a bus

    Perhaps because he wasn't campaigning for a No Deal Brexit? Just a thought.
    Yes he was. If he was campaigning for Leave then the possibility of no deal was one of the outcomes he expected.

    Or he is a complete moron.
    I have to admit, I do rather admire the way Gove has managed to convince his colleagues and a significant chunk of the professional commentariat that he's an intellectual, despite having never having done a single thing worthy of that label.

    Though, to be fair, I doubt most MPs or journalists would recognize an intellectual if one bit them on the arse so maybe it's not surprising.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Labour have contrived to have a week of car crashes with a botched vnoc, Corbyn squirming on whether he did or did not say stupid woman to the PM, and one of their mps found guilty of perverting the course of justice

    I don't doubt Labour are in trouble, however I watched PMQ's live and felt embarrassed by PM May doing the pantomime oration and the craven response behind her.

    These are very difficult times and I question the judgement of May in behaving in the way she did. She showed her self up in my opinion and behaved in a way that demeans her office. Very poor judgement on her behalf!

    l watched PMQ's live and I thought at the time Corbyn muttered "stupid people" as the behaviour of the PM and her backbenchers was childish and embarrassing. Given the state of affairs this country faces as a direct result of the PM's judgements I do not think this bodes well. I say this as someone who does not view Corbyn in a good light, I think he is extreme and presents even more dangers for the country.
    PMQs is full of stupid posturing and lame jokes on all sides at all times, and doesn't really reflect the merits or not of either side. So that May might have made a stupid crack is neither here nor there really. I don't think Corbyns alleged words matter much though, especially as he's provided an explanation enough for supporters (And even some non supporters).
    #StupidPeople trending on twitter now...

    In an amazing turn around making up some rubbish to smear Corbyn with was counterproductive. In fairness to the Conservatives only a strategic genius or someone with the power to see into the future could have predicted that this would go the same way other silly little smears have gone for over 3 years....
    Ah, Twitter. If Twitter were right Remain would have won in 2016 and Corbyn would have won in 2017. And Miliband would probably have won in 2015...
    And if the right wing echo chambers were right then May would have had her landslide because nobody would consider voting for Corbyn...

    The age of the right wing press baron is starting to move on, when change happens you embrace it or wither away. I only hope other Conservatives share your view.
    "other Conservatives"?
    Other people who are also Conservatives...

    Or are you not a Conservative? (voter if not ideology)
This discussion has been closed.