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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marginal gained by LAB from CON at GE17
Fiona Onasanya: Peterborough MP guilty in speeding case – Could be by-election in seat gained by LAB from CON at GE17https://t.co/TetDWtgYmR
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https://www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/previous-elections-results/
https://order-order.com/2018/12/19/fiona-onasanya-guilty-perverting-course-justice/
WRT sentencing, there are three aggravating factors (abuse of a position of trust, absence of contrition, failure to co-operate with the authorities) and no mitigating factors that I can think of.
I wonder if Farage/Banks are ready to go if a by-election occurs.
As I read it, they are imposing an effective shortened transition period. After that, well I suppose they would roll over the terms in all practicality. And it seems very skewed towards the UK being compliant with EU regs.
No issue with the backstop on account of the "all relevant EU legislation on the importation and exportation of goods will apply to goods moving between the EU and the UK" clause.
Do we know what the ERG have said? What about @RichieTyndall, perhaps forthcoming Independent candidate in Peterborough?
"It was then suggested she might have been in the car but not driving."
The law of unintended consequences springs to mind with that one...most Pyrrhic victory since at least the Alamo and possibly Ascalum.
https://magistrates.blogspot.com/2018/12/member-of-parliament-convicted-of.html
oh yes she did
"Prosecutor David Jeremy, QC, suggested that would have been 'totally redundant' because she knew full well that it was her all along and accused her of 'sacrificing' Festus during her second trial to get herself acquitted.
He told jurors the MP had 'invented' a telephone conversation with her brother in which he confessed to filling in the form out and sending it off without her knowledge 'to plug that gap' in her earlier account."
Exactly what neither party wants, a by election that becomes a referendum on Brexit.
The first part rather than the second part.
On the EU provisions I have not been able to yet find the official EU text so I am wary of any exact interpretations. It does seem to raise some interesting questions in so far as it does appear at first glance to mitigate some of the issues which have been raised about a No Deal Brexit.
https://twitter.com/paulbristow79/status/1053400179641147392
https://twitter.com/king_glenn/status/982691499698778112
In case of no-deal, every consignment of live animals and animal products coming from the UK would have to undergo, as of the withdrawal date, checks in Union border inspection posts (BIPs) at the point of entry into the EU.
...
Certain flexibilities are provided for in the applicable EU legislation, e.g. accepting temporary premises for inspection rooms or sharing commercial facilities for the storage of consignments. In order to be ready by 30 March 2019, the new or extended border inspection posts must be proposed by the Member States to the European Commission before 15 February 2019.
Better get building those border posts pretty sharpish, Mr Varadkar.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/contingency-qanda_en.pdf
https://twitter.com/paulbristow79
* Technically, Macmillan did too, gaining Brighouse & Spenborough in 1960, and Bristol SE in 1961, but that latter one was only because Labour knowingly nominated a disqualified candidate, who nonetheless topped the poll.
* Technically, MacDonald (1929-31) did so too, but only because Labour gained Liverpool Scotland from the Irish Parliamentary Party, the MP for which had in effect been caucusing with Labour before his death - as evidenced by the fact that Labour didn't contest the seat at the 1929 GE, yet was unopposed at the by-election giving a nominal swing of 100%!
* Technically, Asquith did too but all but one of the Liberal 'gains' are affected by Lib-Lab nomination effects.
For once, and we have yet to hear her official response, May might prove to be one of the few grown-ups in the room.
It all comes down to not being the PM who allowed any hint of The Troubles to resurface on their watch. But how the dingedy dang is she going to get it through the Commons...
Seems rather silly to chuck away 2 careers for. Folk, eh?
Between the LibDems and Nigel Farage
Corbyn is continuing to dominate the news which is helpfully keeping Onasanaya off it.
He's also getting lots of exposure, absence of which I gather is the reason why labour are struggling politically despite this government making the Flensburg administration look strong and stable.
It seems to me that if 10-2 (83%) is an acceptable majority, then 9-2 (82%), or indeed 8-2 (80%) should also be. Instead the bar jumps to 10-1 or 9-1 (91% / 90%).
Copeland was a labour seat for sixty years and never really thought of as competitive until Corbyn.
A wether is a castrated ram. Ones with a bell effectively guided the flock.
So by the new normal rules of politics he’ll be up by 5 points.
Next to Ms Leadsom on the front bench, the Prime Minister’s eyes widened as if she had sat suddenly upon an epipen. Up on his great green throne, the speaker’s world collapsed from under him.
Mr Bercow has a well established taste in loud ties. Never before have they been so singularly outshone by his face. It turned first to pink, then to crimson, then to puce, like a sunset in a nuclear winter.
“I have no need...the honourable lady...four months ago...nothing further on the matter…” This is the verbatim quote, not least as, presumably through sheer embarrassment, his microphone broke too, leaving his desperate prevarications inaudible. That actually happened.
It was a revenge served at a temperature that can only be measured on the Kelvin scale. It was, frankly, immaculate.
She must have a very strong 'it won't happen to me' chip. I expect she bought it on ebay from the seller know as jailbirdChrisH
We should fine criminals of this kind perhaps 50-75% of their life savings and probably include a possession order on their house to recover some of that. That earns the taxpayer maybe £500,000 for a serious offence by a well-off idiot, or £100,000 for a milder breach of the law by someone of more normal means. She's lost her legal and probably her MP's career, so I'd stop at that.
Because of course they are.
Will he evenlast until the meaningful vote?
"The Bristow's our and about again" - I'm pretty sure TSE will confirm the leaver in that grammar..
So, what we have here is Brexiteers now demanding the EU massively overreach its powers.
Funny old world.