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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Last night’s confidence vote points to a pathway to the leader

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    I think that's Labour's problem with the DUP. They've more chance of peeling off half a dozen Tory Remainers with a revoke or ref2 offer.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    Yes, what would be in it for the DUP?
    That's always a fun game. Jez invites Arlene round for a cuppa. "Let's make this happen", he says, "Name your price."

    What does she ask for?
    Cheddar cheese and pineapple on a stick.

    Also another billion pounds.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    Ummm, I'm not so sure about that.

    May's deal crosses the DUP's only serious red line. Remain, by default, does not. They want to leave, sure, but not if it involves any kind of customs or regulatory border in the Irish Sea.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited December 2018

    Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    And people say she's tin-eared! :wink:

    She's reminding me a bit of Saga from The Bridge these days (though without Saga's problem-solving skills obvs.)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kyf_100 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    Yes, what would be in it for the DUP?
    That's always a fun game. Jez invites Arlene round for a cuppa. "Let's make this happen", he says, "Name your price."

    What does she ask for?
    Cheddar cheese and pineapple on a stick.

    Also another billion pounds.
    I HAVE MADE A LEGITIMATE AND PEACEFUL REQUEST
    FOR CHEDDAR CHEESE AND PINEAPPLE ON A STICK
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Is stopBoris something every PBer can actually agree on?

    No. I have money on Boris as next Tory leader, and have had for a long time. Besides, he'd make an amusing LOTO.
    If May keeps her promise, the next leader will come in as PM, with a runup to the election. That makes it a LOT less likely that it will be Boris, a failed FS FFS.
  • That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    Ummm, I'm not so sure about that.

    May's deal crosses the DUP's only serious red line. Remain, by default, does not. They want to leave, sure, but not if it involves any kind of customs or regulatory border in the Irish Sea.
    Yeah, they might go for Revoke, although they've repeatedly said they want Brexit.
  • The Guardian reporting that Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, has said the EU may call an emergency summit in January to agree 'additional assurances' which could be attached to the political declaration on future relations, addressing concerns of mps. Austria holds the rotating presidency of the EU
  • That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    Ummm, I'm not so sure about that.

    May's deal crosses the DUP's only serious red line. Remain, by default, does not. They want to leave, sure, but not if it involves any kind of customs or regulatory border in the Irish Sea.
    Give TM time and political space remain is looking the most likely via a second referendum, maybe attached to the meaningful vote. It would be her final act and put ERG to the sword
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.

    The timing would be glorious. It would mean a VoC required by 3rd January or else an election.
    I suspect that there would be a considerable kick-back by voters against a silly stunt like that.
    If the opportunity presents itself to bring down the government, you take it. I mean, sure, it'll ruin Parliament's christmas, but I'm not sure anyone else will be that bothered as they tuck into their fifteenth slice of turkey and custard pie.
    Custard pie? Now I'm thinking you might be based in Moscow... It's Christmas pud over here comrade!
    In theory, at least. In practice I've not known anyone have an appetite for it after a full turkey dinner. Lemon sorbet would be a more sensible choice to follow the main meal.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Is stopBoris something every PBer can actually agree on?

    No. I have money on Boris as next Tory leader, and have had for a long time. Besides, he'd make an amusing LOTO.
    If May keeps her promise, the next leader will come in as PM, with a runup to the election. That makes it a LOT less likely that it will be Boris, a failed FS FFS.
    Not if Labour carry a VoNC and can then win a VoC themselves. Jezza could be PM for a few weeks at least before having to call a GE. Unlikely, but not impossible.
  • Two years notice not enough?.

    How many years notice will the army need of a war?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    The Guardian reporting that Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, has said the EU may call an emergency summit in January to agree 'additional assurances' which could be attached to the political declaration on future relations, addressing concerns of mps. Austria holds the rotating presidency of the EU

    That's nice of him. Assurances will definitely sway those committed to remain, no deal, a GE, or legally binding changes.
  • A strong incentive for me to retain my Tory membership...... anyone but Boris (well and a few others)
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    Ummm, I'm not so sure about that.

    May's deal crosses the DUP's only serious red line. Remain, by default, does not. They want to leave, sure, but not if it involves any kind of customs or regulatory border in the Irish Sea.
    Yeah, they might go for Revoke, although they've repeatedly said they want Brexit.
    I sense that the DUP are among the many people trying to find a way to row back without loss of face.

    The DUP's Brexit stance was based on the assumption it would cleave NI away from the Republic of Ireland.

    What May's negotiation has delivered is pretty much the exact opposite of what they wanted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    To be dissatisfied.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, most of the ERG were in that 117 and should get Boris on the final ballot even if a Dealer gets most MPs and he likely wins that final ballot as like Corbyn and unlike May he is much more popular with the party membership than his party's MPs.

    Notice May today said she would step down for a new Tory leader by the 2022 general election if Parliament lasts the course but did not rule out leading the party at a snap general election if she loses a VONC in the Commons

    Which is why the Tories should have deposed her when they had the chance. 2019 remains the hot favourite for a GE on Betfair and if it happens, they are going into the next GE with a proven voter repellent at the helm.

    BoJo may be unpopular amongst his colleagues and the PB cognoscenti, but I think he has a better chance of beating Corbyn in a GE.
    If there's an early election, the question of who is leader will be the least of the party's worries compared with the splits on No Deal.
    If there's an election, the party, somehow, needs a manifesto.
    Exactly. And one which mentions Brexit somewhere.
    Brexit means brexit.
    Problem solved. That is essentially what Labour are already doing as well.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    Has she changed her mind since yesterday when she said she was standing down within 12 months?
  • kle4 said:

    The Guardian reporting that Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, has said the EU may call an emergency summit in January to agree 'additional assurances' which could be attached to the political declaration on future relations, addressing concerns of mps. Austria holds the rotating presidency of the EU

    That's nice of him. Assurances will definitely sway those committed to remain, no deal, a GE, or legally binding changes.
    It looks like a move to keep the issue going into January with 'tempus fugit'
  • kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, most of the ERG were in that 117 and should get Boris on the final ballot even if a Dealer gets most MPs and he likely wins that final ballot as like Corbyn and unlike May he is much more popular with the party membership than his party's MPs.

    Notice May today said she would step down for a new Tory leader by the 2022 general election if Parliament lasts the course but did not rule out leading the party at a snap general election if she loses a VONC in the Commons

    Which is why the Tories should have deposed her when they had the chance. 2019 remains the hot favourite for a GE on Betfair and if it happens, they are going into the next GE with a proven voter repellent at the helm.

    BoJo may be unpopular amongst his colleagues and the PB cognoscenti, but I think he has a better chance of beating Corbyn in a GE.
    Have the odds on an early general election shortened in the last 48 hours? They should have,

    All it takes now is for
    - the DUP to fail to support the Government in a VONC, in the hope that (despite her comments today) May will then be persuaded to fall on her sword and be replaced by a new Tory leader they can back to form a new government in the hope of a change of direction
    - May to confound them by preferring to lead the Conservatives into an avoidable GE. The DUP could hardly come back with the tail between their legs and back May in a second vote of confidence within the 14 days period of grace.

    Before last night, May could have been forced out by Tory MPs and that scenario averted. Now she is her own master (or mistress). This is what you get when a politician treats her own personal political career as being synonymous with the national interest.



  • Scott_P said:
    Time to remove the whip from these traitors-cum-Corbyn enablers.
    I worry that I'm being drawn ever so slightly nearer to echoing your calm, temperate, gentle and understated musings when it comes to such folk...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    IanB2 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.

    The timing would be glorious. It would mean a VoC required by 3rd January or else an election.
    I suspect that there would be a considerable kick-back by voters against a silly stunt like that.
    If the opportunity presents itself to bring down the government, you take it. I mean, sure, it'll ruin Parliament's christmas, but I'm not sure anyone else will be that bothered as they tuck into their fifteenth slice of turkey and custard pie.
    Custard pie? Now I'm thinking you might be based in Moscow... It's Christmas pud over here comrade!
    In theory, at least. In practice I've not known anyone have an appetite for it after a full turkey dinner. Lemon sorbet would be a more sensible choice to follow the main meal.
    I have never not managed Christmas pud after Turkey and all the trimmings.
  • That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    Ummm, I'm not so sure about that.

    May's deal crosses the DUP's only serious red line. Remain, by default, does not. They want to leave, sure, but not if it involves any kind of customs or regulatory border in the Irish Sea.
    Yeah, they might go for Revoke, although they've repeatedly said they want Brexit.
    I sense that the DUP are one of the many people trying to find a way to row back without loss of face.

    The DUP's Brexit stance was based on the assumption it would cleave NI away from the Republic of Ireland.

    What May's negotiation has delivered is pretty much the exact opposite of what they wanted.
    And is very popular in NI outside the DUP
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    A strong incentive for me to retain my Tory membership...... anyone but Boris (well and a few others)

    You'd better hope than the handover happens at a time of peace and tranquility, because as sure as eggs is eggs the members aren't going to get a look in if we have to switch PMs whilst this perpetual crisis is ongoing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    AndyJS said:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    Has she changed her mind since yesterday when she said she was standing down within 12 months?
    Don't think she did.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    Scott_P said:
    Am I reading that wrong? They are angry we are not getting no deal (or a much harder deal) including that we are trying to spook people with our lack of preparedness for no deal, and so they will...cause problems on something which involves no deal preparations? That can't beright
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kle4 said:

    The Guardian reporting that Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, has said the EU may call an emergency summit in January to agree 'additional assurances' which could be attached to the political declaration on future relations, addressing concerns of mps. Austria holds the rotating presidency of the EU

    That's nice of him. Assurances will definitely sway those committed to remain, no deal, a GE, or legally binding changes.
    It looks like a move to keep the issue going into January with 'tempus fugit'
    Busywork, something designed to maintain the illusion of Mrs May doing something useful as we run down the clock to Jan 21st.
  • AndyJS said:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    Has she changed her mind since yesterday when she said she was standing down within 12 months?
    Not sure she did say that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    IanB2 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.

    The timing would be glorious. It would mean a VoC required by 3rd January or else an election.
    I suspect that there would be a considerable kick-back by voters against a silly stunt like that.
    If the opportunity presents itself to bring down the government, you take it. I mean, sure, it'll ruin Parliament's christmas, but I'm not sure anyone else will be that bothered as they tuck into their fifteenth slice of turkey and custard pie.
    Custard pie? Now I'm thinking you might be based in Moscow... It's Christmas pud over here comrade!
    In theory, at least. In practice I've not known anyone have an appetite for it after a full turkey dinner. Lemon sorbet would be a more sensible choice to follow the main meal.
    I have never not managed Christmas pud after Turkey and all the trimmings.
    If trimmings must be sacrificed to ensure that, then so be it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,742

    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, most of the ERG were in that 117 and should get Boris on the final ballot even if a Dealer gets most MPs and he likely wins that final ballot as like Corbyn and unlike May he is much more popular with the party membership than his party's MPs.

    Notice May today said she would step down for a new Tory leader by the 2022 general election if Parliament lasts the course but did not rule out leading the party at a snap general election if she loses a VONC in the Commons

    Which is why the Tories should have deposed her when they had the chance. 2019 remains the hot favourite for a GE on Betfair and if it happens, they are going into the next GE with a proven voter repellent at the helm.

    BoJo may be unpopular amongst his colleagues and the PB cognoscenti, but I think he has a better chance of beating Corbyn in a GE.
    Have the odds on an early general election shortened in the last 48 hours? They should have,

    All it takes now is for
    - the DUP to fail to support the Government in a VONC, in the hope that (despite her comments today) May will then be persuaded to fall on her sword and be replaced by a new Tory leader they can back to form a new government in the hope of a change of direction
    - May to confound them by preferring to lead the Conservatives into an avoidable GE. The DUP could hardly come back with the tail between their legs and back May in a second vote of confidence within the 14 days period of grace.

    Before last night, May could have been forced out by Tory MPs and that scenario averted. Now she is her own master (or mistress). This is what you get when a politician treats her own personal political career as being synonymous with the national interest.
    The Lib Dems could offer a temporary confidence and supply agreement in return for a Deal/Remain referendum.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    IanB2 said:

    A strong incentive for me to retain my Tory membership...... anyone but Boris (well and a few others)

    You'd better hope than the handover happens at a time of peace and tranquility, because as sure as eggs is eggs the members aren't going to get a look in if we have to switch PMs whilst this perpetual crisis is ongoing.
    Can't a see final two Tory Remainer candidate stepping aside to allow a BoJo coronation somehow.
  • Have Jacob, Steve and IDS been helping out abroad too?

    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1073284951972421632
  • What happens if corbyn does manage to collapse the government. Would the tories have time to change leader and fight a GE at the same time?
  • That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Is stopBoris something every PBer can actually agree on?

    No. I have money on Boris as next Tory leader, and have had for a long time. Besides, he'd make an amusing LOTO.
    If May keeps her promise, the next leader will come in as PM, with a runup to the election. That makes it a LOT less likely that it will be Boris, a failed FS FFS.
    Not if Labour carry a VoNC and can then win a VoC themselves. Jezza could be PM for a few weeks at least before having to call a GE. Unlikely, but not impossible.
    Unlikely, as you say. Betting on Boris for next leader means seeing him take over as next PM; anyone who thinks that is likely needs to rewatch his contribution to last week's Brexit debate - and more specifically his colleagues' reactions to it.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    Ummm, I'm not so sure about that.

    May's deal crosses the DUP's only serious red line. Remain, by default, does not. They want to leave, sure, but not if it involves any kind of customs or regulatory border in the Irish Sea.
    Yeah, they might go for Revoke, although they've repeatedly said they want Brexit.
    I sense that the DUP are one of the many people trying to find a way to row back without loss of face.

    The DUP's Brexit stance was based on the assumption it would cleave NI away from the Republic of Ireland.

    What May's negotiation has delivered is pretty much the exact opposite of what they wanted.
    And is very popular in NI outside the DUP
    Because it ties NI very closely to the Republic and the EU. Which, again, is the exact opposite of what they wanted.

    The DUP have trapped themselves. They can never support Mrs May's deal, but they also can't VONC May because it's the only leverage they have to get themselves out of this mess.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    Yes, what would be in it for the DUP?
    That's always a fun game. Jez invites Arlene round for a cuppa. "Let's make this happen", he says, "Name your price."

    What does she ask for?
    Unicorns.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Am I reading that wrong? They are angry we are not getting no deal (or a much harder deal) including that we are trying to spook people with our lack of preparedness for no deal, and so they will...cause problems on something which involves no deal preparations? That can't beright
    I think you mean ' they can't be bright'
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.

    The timing would be glorious. It would mean a VoC required by 3rd January or else an election.
    I suspect that there would be a considerable kick-back by voters against a silly stunt like that.
    If the opportunity presents itself to bring down the government, you take it. I mean, sure, it'll ruin Parliament's christmas, but I'm not sure anyone else will be that bothered as they tuck into their fifteenth slice of turkey and custard pie.
    Custard pie? Now I'm thinking you might be based in Moscow... It's Christmas pud over here comrade!
    In theory, at least. In practice I've not known anyone have an appetite for it after a full turkey dinner. Lemon sorbet would be a more sensible choice to follow the main meal.
    I have never not managed Christmas pud after Turkey and all the trimmings.
    If trimmings must be sacrificed to ensure that, then so be it.
    To be fair, we have cut back on starters in recent years - we limit ourselves to a few smoked salmon blinis before the main event these days.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    Has she changed her mind since yesterday when she said she was standing down within 12 months?
    Not sure she did say that.
    That was the impression given by various reports.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    The clever strategy for Labour in that scenario would be to 'allow' the LibDems and SNP to force a second referendum upon them.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, most of the ERG were in that 117 and should get Boris on the final ballot even if a Dealer gets most MPs and he likely wins that final ballot as like Corbyn and unlike May he is much more popular with the party membership than his party's MPs.

    Notice May today said she would step down for a new Tory leader by the 2022 general election if Parliament lasts the course but did not rule out leading the party at a snap general election if she loses a VONC in the Commons

    Which is why the Tories should have deposed her when they had the chance. 2019 remains the hot favourite for a GE on Betfair and if it happens, they are going into the next GE with a proven voter repellent at the helm.

    BoJo may be unpopular amongst his colleagues and the PB cognoscenti, but I think he has a better chance of beating Corbyn in a GE.
    Have the odds on an early general election shortened in the last 48 hours? They should have,

    All it takes now is for
    - the DUP to fail to support the Government in a VONC, in the hope that (despite her comments today) May will then be persuaded to fall on her sword and be replaced by a new Tory leader they can back to form a new government in the hope of a change of direction
    - May to confound them by preferring to lead the Conservatives into an avoidable GE. The DUP could hardly come back with the tail between their legs and back May in a second vote of confidence within the 14 days period of grace.

    Before last night, May could have been forced out by Tory MPs and that scenario averted. Now she is her own master (or mistress). This is what you get when a politician treats her own personal political career as being synonymous with the national interest.



    I got on at 2.86 on BF exchange on 17/11. Currently sitting at 2.48.
  • AndyJS said:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    Has she changed her mind since yesterday when she said she was standing down within 12 months?
    Not sure she did say that.
    Nor did she say that she would be standing down within 12 months in late June 2017, but to cling on then she was for a while quite happy to give that impression.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    Yes, what would be in it for the DUP?
    That's always a fun game. Jez invites Arlene round for a cuppa. "Let's make this happen", he says, "Name your price."

    What does she ask for?
    Unicorns.
    Don't think it'll work with Arlene. I think she shoots unicorns and mounts them on her wall.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    I am short of JC in the Next PM market and no longer like my position. Why would he not try to do a deal with the DUP in order to enter number 10 without a GE? I would if I were him. It's a chance to be Prime Minister for heaven's sake. Prime Minister!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kle4 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    Yes, what would be in it for the DUP?
    That's always a fun game. Jez invites Arlene round for a cuppa. "Let's make this happen", he says, "Name your price."

    What does she ask for?
    Unicorns.
    Fair point - there must be some out there somewhere.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I thought May said she would not fight the GE in 2022.
    That means she would be able to fight an election that was earlier.
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    Has she changed her mind since yesterday when she said she was standing down within 12 months?
    Not sure she did say that.
    That was the impression given by various reports.
    Maybe confusion with she cannot be challenged for 12 months
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    The clever strategy for Labour in that scenario would be to 'allow' the LibDems and SNP to force a second referendum upon them.
    If there is a second referendum, Labour have to support one side of the question and actually have a policy - which they don’t actually have. I wouldn’t have thought they’d want to found out before forcing an election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    kinabalu said:

    I am short of JC in the Next PM market and no longer like my position. Why would he not try to do a deal with the DUP, the SNP, the LDs, PC, the Green party, and a few independents in order to enter number 10 without a GE? I would if I were him. It's a chance to be Prime Minister for heaven's sake. Prime Minister!

    Just edited in bold above to complete Jezza's challenge.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited December 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    I thought May said she would not fight the GE in 2022.
    That means she would be able to fight an election that was earlier.

    That was the inference from her speech at 1922 committee, but to bbc reporter has said next GE, but there is a get out...

    "What I'm clear about is the next general election is in 2022 and I think it's right that another party leader take us into that general election."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    Yes but of course that means BINO and permanent Customs Union and likely Single Market too under PM Corbyn but the DUP can say that would apply to the whole UK rather than a backstop for NI only as now under the Deal
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited December 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    I thought May said she would not fight the GE in 2022.
    That means she would be able to fight an election that was earlier.

    Apparently, she was very vague last night when MPs asked her if she'd lead them into an early election.

    No-one is sure, as ever with her, whether she was deliberately trying to keep her options open, or if she's just incapable of saying something clearly.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, most of the ERG were in that 117 and should get Boris on the final ballot even if a Dealer gets most MPs and he likely wins that final ballot as like Corbyn and unlike May he is much more popular with the party membership than his party's MPs.

    Notice May today said she would step down for a new Tory leader by the 2022 general election if Parliament lasts the course but did not rule out leading the party at a snap general election if she loses a VONC in the Commons

    Which is why the Tories should have deposed her when they had the chance. 2019 remains the hot favourite for a GE on Betfair and if it happens, they are going into the next GE with a proven voter repellent at the helm.

    BoJo may be unpopular amongst his colleagues and the PB cognoscenti, but I think he has a better chance of beating Corbyn in a GE.
    Have the odds on an early general election shortened in the last 48 hours? They should have,

    All it takes now is for
    - the DUP to fail to support the Government in a VONC, in the hope that (despite her comments today) May will then be persuaded to fall on her sword and be replaced by a new Tory leader they can back to form a new government in the hope of a change of direction
    - May to confound them by preferring to lead the Conservatives into an avoidable GE. The DUP could hardly come back with the tail between their legs and back May in a second vote of confidence within the 14 days period of grace.

    Before last night, May could have been forced out by Tory MPs and that scenario averted. Now she is her own master (or mistress). This is what you get when a politician treats her own personal political career as being synonymous with the national interest.
    The Lib Dems could offer a temporary confidence and supply agreement in return for a Deal/Remain referendum.
    Good point. I hadn't thought of that.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kinabalu said:

    I am short of JC in the Next PM market and no longer like my position. Why would he not try to do a deal with the DUP, the SNP, the LDs, PC, the Green party, and a few independents in order to enter number 10 without a GE? I would if I were him. It's a chance to be Prime Minister for heaven's sake. Prime Minister!

    Just edited in bold above to complete Jezza's challenge.
    I think Corbyn can reasonably expect the support of the LDs and and Plaid and the Greens. The SNP would need a sweetener. The DUP would need a cast iron guarantee that was more cast than the cast iron guarantee they got from May that she betrayed.
  • Yorkcity said:

    I thought May said she would not fight the GE in 2022.
    That means she would be able to fight an election that was earlier.

    Yes indeed. And that is why I was angry with ERG (not for the first time) for vnoc her now
  • kinabalu said:

    I am short of JC in the Next PM market and no longer like my position. Why would he not try to do a deal with the DUP, the SNP, the LDs, PC, the Green party, and a few independents in order to enter number 10 without a GE? I would if I were him. It's a chance to be Prime Minister for heaven's sake. Prime Minister!

    Just edited in bold above to complete Jezza's challenge.
    Indeed. And of course one should never make the mistake of assuming that the SNP are friends of Labour, or vice versa for that matter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Just edited in bold above to complete Jezza's challenge.

    Sure. But DUP is the toughie. The others are all hard-coded to bring down tory govts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I agree, most of the ERG were in that 117 and should get Boris on the final ballot even if a Dealer gets most MPs and he likely wins that final ballot as like Corbyn and unlike May he is much more popular with the party membership than his party's MPs.

    Notice May today said she would step down for a new Tory leader by the 2022 general election if Parliament lasts the course but did not rule out leading the party at a snap general election if she loses a VONC in the Commons

    Which is why the Tories should have deposed her when they had the chance. 2019 remains the hot favourite for a GE on Betfair and if it happens, they are going into the next GE with a proven voter repellent at the helm.

    BoJo may be unpopular amongst his colleagues and the PB cognoscenti, but I think he has a better chance of beating Corbyn in a GE.
    I think May v Corbyn next time could be a repeat of February 1974 but Boris v Corbyn a repeat of 2015
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    Yorkcity said:

    I thought May said she would not fight the GE in 2022.
    That means she would be able to fight an election that was earlier.

    I didn't think it was so much that she would be able to as in the event of one very ahead of schedule she would have to unless somehow they were able to immediately have an interim leader and a coherent Brexit message to get behind. Any Tory MP who could not see that there is a strong possibility of a 2019 GE and that if they didn't replace the leader now they would struggle to do so later in the event of the government being brought down, has not been thinking much.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,047
    Four local by-elections today - a Con defence in Dunfries, and Lab defences in Haringey, Harlow, and Middlesbrough. There was one election yesterday and it was a stunner - Ashfield Independent (the Jason Zadrozny party) gain from Labour.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kinabalu said:

    I am short of JC in the Next PM market and no longer like my position. Why would he not try to do a deal with the DUP, the SNP, the LDs, PC, the Green party, and a few independents in order to enter number 10 without a GE? I would if I were him. It's a chance to be Prime Minister for heaven's sake. Prime Minister!

    Just edited in bold above to complete Jezza's challenge.
    It would not be a very stable government, but it doesn't have to last very long.
  • kinabalu said:

    I am short of JC in the Next PM market and no longer like my position. Why would he not try to do a deal with the DUP, the SNP, the LDs, PC, the Green party, and a few independents in order to enter number 10 without a GE? I would if I were him. It's a chance to be Prime Minister for heaven's sake. Prime Minister!

    Just edited in bold above to complete Jezza's challenge.
    It would not be a very stable government, but it doesn't have to last very long.
    It would be a very entertaining spectacle.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    By the way, I stand by that, if there is an election soon, Brexit still won't feature much.

    Partly because, as we saw in 2017, it's just not that interesting for people outside the "Westminster bubble". But also because it would be in neither of the big parties' interests to campaign much on it: Labour because it splits their voters, and the Tories because they would probably be desperate to avoid reminding voters of the Brexit-related chaos that led to the election if possible.

    The election would be decided on "traditional" issues rather than Brexit IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    IanB2 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    The clever strategy for Labour in that scenario would be to 'allow' the LibDems and SNP to force a second referendum upon them.
    If there is a second referendum, Labour have to support one side of the question and actually have a policy - which they don’t actually have. I wouldn’t have thought they’d want to found out before forcing an election.
    Which is why the preference is for GE, but as a fall back position and with remain increasing in support, they might as well take the plunge and go all out for remain in a referendum.
  • Oh those Russians.

    'Hi-tech robot' at Russia forum turns out to be man in suit. State television praised the ‘modern’ tech despite photos revealing actor in costume.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/high-tech-robot-at-russia-forum-turns-out-to-be-man-in-robot-suit
  • HYUFD said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    Yes but of course that means BINO and permanent Customs Union and likely Single Market too under PM Corbyn but the DUP can say that would apply to the whole UK rather than a backstop for NI only as now under the Deal
    I don’t think the DUP care about that or no deal or no Brexit. NI voted Remain in the referendum and they’ve supported Leave because that was the U.K. position. As long as there is no differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. at any stage, the DUP will be happy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Is stopBoris something every PBer can actually agree on?

    No , I am with HYFUD .
    Boris beats Corbyn IMO.

    Not sure May or any of the other contenders will.
    If he gets to the Conservative members ballot , I think he wins.
    Genuine question. Why do you think he beats corbyn but say Javid doesn’t?

    I would have thought corbyn could easily dismantle Boris with all his baggage, his “of the few rather than the many” background etc
    Because in their own way they are both populist.
    I honestly believe to members of the public , who are not interested in politics.
    Boris Johnson has cut through with those , who only tune in at general election time,with no party allegiance .
    Javid is a good cabinet Minster but would not reach those mentioned above.
    Yes Boris is the UK Trump or Berlusconi, a populist who can rouse the masses, Javid the UK's Marco Rubio, ie he looks better on paper then in practice

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    edited December 2018
    Re tory leadership, Raab has really gone for a walk in the market. Has he been overheard saying something superficially appealing that on closer scrutiny is facile and self-serving?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Two years notice not enough?.

    How many years notice will the army need of a war?
    For that, as Sir Humphrey would tell us, it's far easier to just push the button.
  • kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    The clever strategy for Labour in that scenario would be to 'allow' the LibDems and SNP to force a second referendum upon them.
    If there is a second referendum, Labour have to support one side of the question and actually have a policy - which they don’t actually have. I wouldn’t have thought they’d want to found out before forcing an election.
    Which is why the preference is for GE, but as a fall back position and with remain increasing in support, they might as well take the plunge and go all out for remain in a referendum.
    Yep - as they did in the first referendum.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kinabalu said:

    Re tory leadership, Raab has really gone for a walk in the market. Has he been overheard saying something superficially appealing that on closer scrutiny is facile and self serving?

    Well, he decided to remind people yesterday about how wages are still lower than when the Tories took office, almost 9 years ago...

    https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1072744754096549888
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018

    HYUFD said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    Yes but of course that means BINO and permanent Customs Union and likely Single Market too under PM Corbyn but the DUP can say that would apply to the whole UK rather than a backstop for NI only as now under the Deal
    I don’t think the DUP care about that or no deal or no Brexit. NI voted Remain in the referendum and they’ve supported Leave because that was the U.K. position. As long as there is no differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. at any stage, the DUP will be happy.
    BINO for the whole UK under PM Corbyn would be fine by the DUP as long as it avoids the need for the backstop, the Tories can then go full hard Brexit under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The Tories are running a three line whip all through next week.

    So they clearly expect a VONC is a serious possibility. That tends to focus the minds. Discussions, I imagine, remain ongoing.

    I think Labour should move the VONC anyway. Put the DUP on the spot. They know May cannot deliver what they ask, so get them to put their money where their mouth is.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want the backstop and they won’t allow any differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. Brexit or no Brexit is rather secondary to that. If siding with Labour is the only way to stop the backstop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    Yes but of course that means BINO and permanent Customs Union and likely Single Market too under PM Corbyn but the DUP can say that would apply to the whole UK rather than a backstop for NI only as now under the Deal
    I don’t think the DUP care about that or no deal or no Brexit. NI voted Remain in the referendum and they’ve supported Leave because that was the U.K. position. As long as there is no differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. at any stage, the DUP will be happy.
    BINO for the whole UK under PM Corbyn would be fine by the DUP as long as it avoids the need for the backstop, the Tories can then go full hard Brexit under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson
    Boris will never win a leadership election and if we ever get a Corbyn Gov, Brexit won’t matter. We’ll be well and truly ******
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    The Tories are running a three line whip all through next week.

    So they clearly expect a VONC is a serious possibility. That tends to focus the minds. Discussions, I imagine, remain ongoing.

    I think Labour should move the VONC anyway. Put the DUP on the spot. They know May cannot deliver what they ask, so get them to put their money where their mouth is.

    The DUP won't desert the Tories next week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories are running a three line whip all through next week.

    So they clearly expect a VONC is a serious possibility. That tends to focus the minds. Discussions, I imagine, remain ongoing.

    I think Labour should move the VONC anyway. Put the DUP on the spot. They know May cannot deliver what they ask, so get them to put their money where their mouth is.

    The DUP won't desert the Tories next week.
    Probably not, but what harm in trying? It puts them and the ERG under pressure, it's not that embarrassing to not succeed, and they can always do it again when May fails to get anything substantive.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,907
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories are running a three line whip all through next week.

    So they clearly expect a VONC is a serious possibility. That tends to focus the minds. Discussions, I imagine, remain ongoing.

    I think Labour should move the VONC anyway. Put the DUP on the spot. They know May cannot deliver what they ask, so get them to put their money where their mouth is.

    The DUP won't desert the Tories next week.
    Indeed not. Their position is clear - they will abandon the Conservatives if the WA, as it currently is constituted and worded, passes the Commons.

  • Prime Minister Theresa May has said she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She said the party would prefer to "to go into that election with another leader", as she arrived in Brussels for an EU summit.

    And people say she's tin-eared! :wink:

    She's reminding me a bit of Saga from The Bridge these days (though without Saga's problem-solving skills obvs.)
    They even have the brown leather breeks in common!

    Tessy would definitely go up in my estimation if she had a goose shit green 911.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories are running a three line whip all through next week.

    So they clearly expect a VONC is a serious possibility. That tends to focus the minds. Discussions, I imagine, remain ongoing.

    I think Labour should move the VONC anyway. Put the DUP on the spot. They know May cannot deliver what they ask, so get them to put their money where their mouth is.

    The DUP won't desert the Tories next week.
    Probably not, but what harm in trying? It puts them and the ERG under pressure, it's not that embarrassing to not succeed, and they can always do it again when May fails to get anything substantive.
    Precisely. Putting the pressure on the DUP and ERG essential to getting them to crack. Even if they don't expect the DUP to break now, forcing them to defend a position they know is ludicrous, to prop up a woman who betrayed them, will increase the chances of them breaking next time.

    It's not like there's a moratorium on Parliamentary VONCs. Labour can, um, just ask Parliament to hold a second vote in January. They really have nothing to lose by going for it next week, and then again after the meaningful vote.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    HYUFD said:

    Yes Boris is the UK Trump or Berlusconi, a populist who can rouse the masses, Javid the UK's Marco Rubio, ie he looks better on paper then in practice.

    Boris Johnson does have real appeal. He could well turn out to be the best Prime Minister we never had. Let's hope so anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Oh those Russians.

    'Hi-tech robot' at Russia forum turns out to be man in suit. State television praised the ‘modern’ tech despite photos revealing actor in costume.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/high-tech-robot-at-russia-forum-turns-out-to-be-man-in-robot-suit

    Robot Boris
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories are running a three line whip all through next week.

    So they clearly expect a VONC is a serious possibility. That tends to focus the minds. Discussions, I imagine, remain ongoing.

    I think Labour should move the VONC anyway. Put the DUP on the spot. They know May cannot deliver what they ask, so get them to put their money where their mouth is.

    The DUP won't desert the Tories next week.
    Probably not, but what harm in trying? It puts them and the ERG under pressure, it's not that embarrassing to not succeed, and they can always do it again when May fails to get anything substantive.
    Nah it is a no brainer for all Tories right now. I expect Labour to make the move after the meaningful vote
  • Oh those Russians.

    'Hi-tech robot' at Russia forum turns out to be man in suit. State television praised the ‘modern’ tech despite photos revealing actor in costume.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/high-tech-robot-at-russia-forum-turns-out-to-be-man-in-robot-suit

    Not quite as good as Samsung launching a colab with supreme in china, except it wasn’t actually the right supreme, it was a fake knockoff of supreme.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    edited December 2018
    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    He's proposing an option he knows that none of Parliament, the Electoral Commission or the European Council will allow to be asked. You can look all magnificently democratic safe in the knowledge it can never happen.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503
    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    I've never bought the idea of Chukka as the Peoples Choice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    He's proposing an option he knows that none of Parliament, the Electoral Commission or the European Council will allow to be asked. You can look all magnificently democratic safe in the knowledge it can never happen.
    I suppose my point should really have been 'I cannot quite understand how he expects his stated position to be believed as logical'. He could do a little better disguising what why he is proposing such an option.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    Canada might win that but is not an option without the backstop
  • So glad the half naked fakir is being exposed as the racist he is.

    A statue of Mahatma Gandhi, the famed Indian independence leader, has been removed from a university campus in Ghana's capital, Accra.

    University of Ghana lecturers began a petition for its removal shortly after it was unveiled in 2016 by India's former President Pranab Mukherjee.

    The petition said Gandhi was "racist" and African heroes should be put first.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-46552614
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    Dear God
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    Canada might win that but is not an option without the backstop
    Which means, practically, the only referendum that can happen is WA vs Remain.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,503

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories are running a three line whip all through next week.

    So they clearly expect a VONC is a serious possibility. That tends to focus the minds. Discussions, I imagine, remain ongoing.

    I think Labour should move the VONC anyway. Put the DUP on the spot. They know May cannot deliver what they ask, so get them to put their money where their mouth is.

    The DUP won't desert the Tories next week.
    Probably not, but what harm in trying? It puts them and the ERG under pressure, it's not that embarrassing to not succeed, and they can always do it again when May fails to get anything substantive.
    Precisely. Putting the pressure on the DUP and ERG essential to getting them to crack. Even if they don't expect the DUP to break now, forcing them to defend a position they know is ludicrous, to prop up a woman who betrayed them, will increase the chances of them breaking next time.

    It's not like there's a moratorium on Parliamentary VONCs. Labour can, um, just ask Parliament to hold a second vote in January. They really have nothing to lose by going for it next week, and then again after the meaningful vote.
    There's NO position which the DUP, once they'd adopted it, would regard as ludicrous. No. None. Never!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    I've never bought the idea of Chukka as the Peoples Choice.
    When are centrists going to do something about the radicalisation of their young?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    That said, it would be an absolute, inexcusable dereliction of duty if Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer weren't promising the DUP a moon on a stick right now to peel them off.

    Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.


    At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
    I have no doubt Labour are perfectly willing to meet the DUP's demands. It's mostly a question of tactics. Would they give up their vice-like grasp on Mrs May's short and curlies in exchange for a promise of no backstop? A promise they surely know Mr Corbyn cannot meaningfully deliver?
    The only way I can see the DUP backing Labour is to sabotage May’s backstop and make it a straight choice between no deal or no Brexit.
    A Labour government, especially one in hock to the LibDems, Plaid, and the SNP, is not going to go for No Deal under any circumstances, so it would be the current Withdrawal Agreement or Revoke, neither of which the DUP wants. In fact, I don't really see what they do want.
    It’s more what they don’t want isn’t it ? They don’t want stop, that’s what I think they’ll do.
    Yes but of course that means BINO and permanent Customs Union and likely Single Market too under PM Corbyn but the DUP can say that would apply to the whole UK rather than a backstop for NI only as now under the Deal
    I don’t think the DUP care about that or no deal or no Brexit. NI voted Remain in the referendum and they’ve supported Leave because that was the U.K. position. As long as there is no differentiation between NI and the rest of the U.K. at any stage, the DUP will be happy.
    BINO for the whole UK under PM Corbyn would be fine by the DUP as long as it avoids the need for the backstop, the Tories can then go full hard Brexit under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson
    Boris will never win a leadership election and if we ever get a Corbyn Gov, Brexit won’t matter. We’ll be well and truly ******
    Oh Boris will easily win a leadership election if he gets to the membership which looks more likely after yesterday.

    A Corbyn government may be awful but the Tories can then play the populist card in opposition
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    I cannot quite understand the logic of this.
    https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1073257335496368128
    No deal is too catastrophic to do, but we must allow a unicorn option which might permit no deal to therefore possibly happen? Sounds like an assumption that Remain has no chance of losing therefore it doesn't matter. Unless it is a clear option, eg the deal, no deal, I don't see how you can include it.

    Canada might win that but is not an option without the backstop
    Which means, practically, the only referendum that can happen is WA vs Remain.
    Indeed if No Deal is unplayable
  • On topic, I don't think Boris Johnson carries his family in this election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    I want JoJo to become leader, just for the look on BoJo's face when it happens.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    I want JoJo to become leader, just for the look on BoJo's face when it happens.

    Blue Milliband
This discussion has been closed.