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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Last night’s confidence vote points to a pathway to the leadership for Johnson
One of the big question marks over Boris’ leadership hopes has been whether he’d be able to secure the support of enough fellow MPs in the first rounds of voting to be able to secure a place in the final two names that go to the membership.
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Among those voting against May were:
-hard Brexiteers
-those wanting a softer approach to Brexit
-loyalists peed off about how May had bottled the vote and left her ministers looking dumb over the weekend.
Boris would have no chance with groups 2 and 3, and I'll believe that the hard Brexiteers will unite behind a single candidate when it happens.
Not buying it sorry.
Another group not for BoJo, apart for himself, natch.
So don't chalk them all up to Boris!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/08/14/numerology-the-next-conservative-leader/
Boris Johnson's first problem is making sure he is enough MPs' first choice to get through the early rounds. That does not seem automatic.
This of course assumes that the ERG are still part of the Conservative Party at that time.
Each can scent the possibility of the leadership, and I think it fanciful that either Raab or Davis won't split the headbanger vote.
Clear betting favourite Johnson is not.
Shame...
Did the others take to the airwaves also?
Soubry, Clarke et al backed May very vocally yesterday. So I don't think 2 holds many votes if any.
An angry mum spat in the face of an elf at a shopping centre Christmas grotto. The woman lost her temper when told she could not take her child into the grotto in Stockton-on-Tees because she did not have a booking, police said.
The enormo-haddock are fantastically intelligent. And vengeful.
(Edit: It was a witty comment though!)
Shame. I would have been fascinated to see Boris going for it in the hustings in 2016 for the one job he clearly covets. I'm sure he'd have been passionate and articulate and engaging. And he would have had a deep reservoir of good will from the party faithful that I don't see for Theresa May. But could he show he had put in the really hard graft that demonstrates he would know what the hell to do if he got to Downing Street? Those who are most Borisphobic are his fellow MPs. Many of whom would be actively willing him to fail.
Although from the other side of the EU debate, I suspect that like Ken Clarke, Boris would have been a pretty decent PM - if they hadn't both been so intractable in their views on Europe.
Boris beats Corbyn IMO.
Not sure May or any of the other contenders will.
If he gets to the Conservative members ballot , I think he wins.
I would have thought corbyn could easily dismantle Boris with all his baggage, his “of the few rather than the many” background etc
But May's position is not strong enough for that, yet.
Notice May today said she would step down for a new Tory leader by the 2022 general election if Parliament lasts the course but did not rule out leading the party at a snap general election if she loses a VONC in the Commons
In the event of No Deal I’d make all Leavers recant their support for Leave or face expulsion and being launched into the Irish Sea via catapult whilst they wore concrete shoes.
If they float they are traitors if they don’t they are witches/warlocks and we’ve sent them on a good Christian burial.
May has not been effectively challenged on her Brexit plans by Leavers and or the Remainers for that matter, and none of them have challenged her on her total lack of a domestic policy programme.
The only parliamentarian who has a brain and seems willing to use it effectively is Dominic Grieve and he, sadly is an ardent Remainer intent in making clinical strikes to ensure Leave is neutered at source.
The stop Boris campaign is well merited by sadly seems to be run by a bunch of headbangers like Soubry, Morgan and Allen. They, like Boris, have absolutely no credible plans on any issue, Brexit or otherwise.
The only alternative would be Labour but with Corbyn in charge that would be turkeys voting for Christmas he is so bad.
Surely there has to be one politician in the Tory who can campaign effectively with the sense to put together a cogent plan for Leaving and a sensible domestic policy agenda.
Are there discussions around Parliament docking Mrs May's wages like a naughty mail boy who spends too long in the lavatory?
https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1073274642578763776
But probably bullshit
He is trampling out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored;
He hath loosed the fateful lightning of His terrible swift sword:
His truth is marching on.
Maybe we can have a referendum on which sea.
I vote for the Irish -- sorry, "West British" -- Sea.
BoJo may be unpopular amongst his colleagues and the PB cognoscenti, but I think he has a better chance of beating Corbyn in a GE.
(Sorry had to strike your final clause 'cos she's not doing that bit.)
((Just had to strike a bit more now on second reading))
Imagine, nailing May with a VONC on the last day of term before Christmas.
She’s going to be forced out by losing votes in Parliament through either the Temain FTA toon or the ERG faction voting against her. The clock is ticking.
At two of those three want a United Ireland and they are so ideologically driven, it won’t occur to them to offer the DUP an olive branch and the DUP wouldn’t believe them if they did.
I honestly believe to members of the public , who are not interested in politics.
Boris Johnson has cut through with those , who only tune in at general election time,with no party allegiance .
Javid is a good cabinet Minster but would not reach those mentioned above.
If that’s true, then the Tories will lose and soon find themselves in a GE with either May or no leader. Either way, Labour will win a big majority and then we shall be deep in the mire.
What does she ask for?