Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
No, the fury belongs against the Brexiteers who wanted something that is harmful to the country, and are not willing to compromise in any way.
They're fuckwitted ideologues.
Yes, their desperate overreach is going to mean this is going to be blown and we'll be trapped in the EU forever. I guess I wanted a really soft non economically disruptive Brexit when I voted remain; and this document delivers. I can see the prize - if the ERG defeats the bill I might hop over to the rejoin side though. Corbyn is the opposition leader, his right to oppose.
This could be the deathknell for Tory eurosceptism as a big force in the country.
Anyone resigning today/triggering leadership contest will be considered sub Mark Reckless scum.
Demonstrating a level of stiff upper lip and constancy of @SeanT dimensions
I’m a patriot.
This deal stops the disaster of no deal and also allows to rejoin quite easily.
I agree, it certainly makes Rejoin a possibility, but this Deal is a fissile one that cannot last. It will end in either Rejoin or WTO and most likely the end of the Union.
It could be improved by FOM, the only one of the 4 freedoms applying to ordinary citizens rather than capital, but as I am rich enough to retire to Europe that isn't the biggest problem for me personally.
Rubbish. This Deal helps the Union as it avoids the disaster of No Deal and a hard border in Scotland
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
Indeed, she has said "You can eat my shit sandwiches - or you can starve."
We could have had shit sandwiches a year ago. The lack of progress - underpinned by an utter lack of ambition - is what boils my piss. And what will make me apoplectic will be when Olly Robbin gets a gong for his services in delivering Brexit.
From Brussels.
Brexit has always been a shit sandwich. It's a shit sandwich you helped assemble and put on the menu.
Remain = The deal + being able to vote on regulations.
We could call it the deal+ if that would make some Tories happier. They could simply not bother to turn up to parliament or the council of ministers and achieve the same result.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got the best bloody deal anyone could. May isn't to blame for this shitshow, she didn't call the referendum and took a hospital pass to become PM. Her sense of duty is frankly amazing - better than any of the rest of the complete shower in the commons. I'm most pissed off with the ERG, traitors to a man.
If the deal doesn't get through parliament, it may well be because of May's disastrous election. May is the one who tied us up in her (well, Nick Timothy's) red lines, who made sure we were negotiating with a gun to our own head by not doing no deal planning in time.
Her sense of "duty" (which I guess is how we're rebranding the utter arrogance and ambition that blew away fifteen points of poll lead during the election) means stubbornly insisting that she- a terrible salesperson- will be the one selling this deal. If that fails, it will be due to her putting her own career over the country's interests
That's not to say that there isn't a lot of blame to go around to others too. But May isn't the victim here, the UK is, and if we all suffer from her consistent record of fuck-ups, I'm certainly not giving her a free pass
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got the best bloody deal anyone could. May isn't to blame for this shitshow, she didn't call the referendum and took a hospital pass to become PM. Her sense of duty is frankly amazing - better than any of the rest of the complete shower in the commons. I'm most pissed off with the ERG, traitors to a man.
May has kept the show on the road and with the lack of preparation for No-Deal has probably done as well as could be expected. Given the country remains divided it’s impossible to get a deal that pleases everyone - and given the people this one is upsetting suggests May is on the right track...
What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
The outer edge of remain appears every bit as uncompromising as the outer edge of leave.
Extremes are extreme and the rational middle always fails to understand their religion like devotion to their version of the truth. It's a sub-Trump binary view of the word, compromise means that I've lost rather than gained something I might not have had at all.
The rational middle is massively under-represented on the media with regards to this deal right now. It's all BETRAYAL BETRAYAL BETRAYAL or screamin g remainers
Newsnight was a striking example of this yesterday evening. A parade of pillocks.
'Twas always thus. It was an iron rule of politics that you got 10 times as much coverage if you were opposing your party leadership, especially if you did it in vehement terms.
To be fair, it IS more entertaining to read "X lashes his party leadership" than "X thinks his leadership has got it about right".
Hmm. A Remain vote in a second referendum now down to 6 on Ladbrokes. Was 8 yesterday morning and 7 yesterday afternoon. Mildly interesting a second Leave is just 6 (ie price unchanged).
A second referendum before the end of next year is 3, the absence thereof is 1.33.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got the best bloody deal anyone could. May isn't to blame for this shitshow, she didn't call the referendum and took a hospital pass to become PM. Her sense of duty is frankly amazing - better than any of the rest of the complete shower in the commons. I'm most pissed off with the ERG, traitors to a man.
May has kept the show on the road and with the lack of preparation for No-Deal has probably done as well as could be expected. Given the country remains divided it’s impossible to get a deal that pleases everyone - and given the people this one is upsetting suggests May is on the right track...
Brits, French and Americans have reasonably realistic view of where their country stands on the world stage (though British and American declinism higher than warranted). Russians need to get out more.
UKIP voters most likely to say UK influence has increased over the last 10 years then Tory voters with Labour and LD voters most likely to say the UK's role has decreased
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got a Deal which is more than most would have got
Anyone resigning today/triggering leadership contest will be considered sub Mark Reckless scum.
Demonstrating a level of stiff upper lip and constancy of @SeanT dimensions
I’m a patriot.
This deal stops the disaster of no deal and also allows to rejoin quite easily.
I agree, it certainly makes Rejoin a possibility, but this Deal is a fissile one that cannot last. It will end in either Rejoin or WTO and most likely the end of the Union.
It could be improved by FOM, the only one of the 4 freedoms applying to ordinary citizens rather than capital, but as I am rich enough to retire to Europe that isn't the biggest problem for me personally.
My main reason for supporting the deal is that acccepting it means staying in is far less likely.
Rejoin won’t have the oomph to overcome the direction of travel.
Scottish independence would, and rejoin would be an outcome of the UK divorce.
Scottish independence is far less likely with a Deal, Yes have only got over 50% in any recent poll in Scotland with No Deal
Basically zero chance of independence with a Deal in place, even if it is a terrible deal.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got the best bloody deal anyone could. May isn't to blame for this shitshow, she didn't call the referendum and took a hospital pass to become PM. Her sense of duty is frankly amazing - better than any of the rest of the complete shower in the commons. I'm most pissed off with the ERG, traitors to a man.
May has kept the show on the road and with the lack of preparation for No-Deal has probably done as well as could be expected. Given the country remains divided it’s impossible to get a deal that pleases everyone - and given the people this one is upsetting suggests May is on the right track...
And who's fault is that FFS?
The Leavers who said No Deal was Project Fear, because inter alia, we held all the aces.
You’re better off not voting for something you disagree with.
But you're better off abstaining on Brexit - if you want to paint it as a Tory project.
Just sit back and let the Tories tear chunks out of themselves.
But no....Labour has to join in the shit-fest.
They don't need to "paint" it as a Tory project, it already is one. So Labour's choice is to vote against the Tory party to see it go into meltdown or give it a free pass to inflict a Brexit they disagree with on the country and move on to implementing the rest of their agenda.
Shouldn't be a difficult choice for Labour, but I'm not convinced we won't see a bunch of rebels from the Umunna wing
Even if Corbyn got in as PM and tried for a permanent rather than temporary Customs Union how do we know Umunna at al will vote it down still for EUref2 or permanent single market while Hoey et al l will also still vote against it
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
One thing this has shown is that for all their talk of trade deals the Juche Brexiteers wouldn't agree any because trade deals would involve too much compromise of the purity of their project.
Not that any of the Juche Brexiteers would be willing to do the hard work which trade deals involve in any case.
Needless to say, I am in a minority in my view of the right relationship between UK and EU.
I am not a fan of the deal. I disliked the terms of our membership.
I would prefer either one of Remain, but be in completely, Euro, Schengen the whole Monty, or to leave and be out completely to WTO.
They may be considered extreme positions, but both are coherent logical positions, unlike the festering hybrid dogs dinner of the deal or remain on old terms.
If asked to vote on the two options I prefer, I would go for full EU membership.
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
You seem oddly obsessed with May. She is not an inspiring politician and I didn't vote for her.
But, I find it difficult to be furious with her.
Our unresolved problems with the EU go back for decades, and the blame is much more widely dispersed. I wouldn't even blame just our present politicians, far less the anaemic figure of May.
You’re better off not voting for something you disagree with.
But you're better off abstaining on Brexit - if you want to paint it as a Tory project.
Just sit back and let the Tories tear chunks out of themselves.
But no....Labour has to join in the shit-fest.
They don't need to "paint" it as a Tory project, it already is one. So Labour's choice is to vote against the Tory party to see it go into meltdown or give it a free pass to inflict a Brexit they disagree with on the country and move on to implementing the rest of their agenda.
Shouldn't be a difficult choice for Labour, but I'm not convinced we won't see a bunch of rebels from the Umunna wing
I agree. I don't know about the last sentence - as I said in my Labour List article, rebelling on this is a sure path to deselection (because the bulk of members with no strong views on Brexit will join the Europhiles and the Corbynites in disliking propping up the Government). Some of the obvious candidates (Umunna, Hoey) have already said they oppose the deal. But if there are rebels, I think they'll only show their hand at the last moment.
By the way, does the Lords have to approve too? I assume so.
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
So essentially the govt need to lie.
It's pretty much true though. Voting down the deal would lead to chaos. It's as simple as that.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
Indeed, she has said "You can eat my shit sandwiches - or you can starve."
We could have had shit sandwiches a year ago. The lack of progress - underpinned by an utter lack of ambition - is what boils my piss. And what will make me apoplectic will be when Olly Robbin gets a gong for his services in delivering Brexit.
From Brussels.
Part of me feels a bit like that but as soon as May lost her majority it gave the EU the opportunity to go harder in the negotiations. They knew the landing strip for a deal was tiny and they took the opportunity to make us land on it. If May had a working majority the strip would've been wider.
The alternative is No Deal, and if No Deal leads to (even) three months of economic problems, it'll probably be the end for the Tories at the next GE.
And I think Corbyn is a bigger threat than a pokey, halfway house deal with the EU, under terms which will barely affect any ordinary people.
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
So essentially the govt need to lie.
I expect there will be some supporting evidence (like falls in sterling and the stock market).
I understand the government has agreed to have amendments before the main vote on the bill.
I assume this means those wanting a second referendum can put it forward and it is voted on
On the assumption it falls this then makes the vote between deal or no deal
Am I right or am I missing something
Very good question. Anyone know?
Problem with that specific example is that Labour won't vote for a referendum unless it's first had a shot at defeating the deal directly.
If they don’t they have to go for some kind of vote and renegotiation.
There will be no re-negotiation. The idea that the EU will be happy, after two years of talking to scrap it all and start over again talking for another 2 years is idiotic.
You’re better off not voting for something you disagree with.
But you're better off abstaining on Brexit - if you want to paint it as a Tory project.
Just sit back and let the Tories tear chunks out of themselves.
But no....Labour has to join in the shit-fest.
They don't need to "paint" it as a Tory project, it already is one. So Labour's choice is to vote against the Tory party to see it go into meltdown or give it a free pass to inflict a Brexit they disagree with on the country and move on to implementing the rest of their agenda.
Shouldn't be a difficult choice for Labour, but I'm not convinced we won't see a bunch of rebels from the Umunna wing
Even if Corbyn got in as PM and tried for a permanent rather than temporary Customs Union how do we know Umunna at al will vote it down still for EUref2 or permanent single market while Hoey et al l will also still vote against it
No idea. But from Labour's point of view, they want in (well, apart from the Never Corbyners), even if the cost is being thrown the Brexit hot potato.
What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
The outer edge of remain appears every bit as uncompromising as the outer edge of leave.
Extremes are extreme and the rational middle always fails to understand their religion like devotion to their version of the truth. It's a sub-Trump binary view of the word, compromise means that I've lost rather than gained something I might not have had at all.
The rational middle is massively under-represented on the media with regards to this deal right now. It's all BETRAYAL BETRAYAL BETRAYAL or screamin g remainers
+1
Most people I know were on the fence on Brexit and they don't seem to be represented in the current debate.
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
So essentially the govt need to lie.
It's pretty much true though. Voting down the deal would lead to chaos. It's as simple as that.
It isn’t true. If this deal falls, there are other routes than no deal. Barnier explicitly did not rule it out yesterday.
I understand the government has agreed to have amendments before the main vote on the bill.
I assume this means those wanting a second referendum can put it forward and it is voted on
On the assumption it falls this then makes the vote between deal or no deal
Am I right or am I missing something
Very good question. Anyone know?
Problem with that specific example is that Labour won't vote for a referendum unless it's first had a shot at defeating the deal directly.
If they don’t they have to go for some kind of vote and renegotiation.
There will be no re-negotiation. The idea that the EU will be happy, after two years of talking to scrap it all and start over again talking for another 2 years is idiotic.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got the best bloody deal anyone could. May isn't to blame for this shitshow, she didn't call the referendum and took a hospital pass to become PM. Her sense of duty is frankly amazing - better than any of the rest of the complete shower in the commons. I'm most pissed off with the ERG, traitors to a man.
May has kept the show on the road and with the lack of preparation for No-Deal has probably done as well as could be expected. Given the country remains divided it’s impossible to get a deal that pleases everyone - and given the people this one is upsetting suggests May is on the right track...
And who's fault is that FFS?
The Leavers who said No Deal was Project Fear, because inter alia, we held all the aces.
As has been mentioned, watching responsibility evasion and the myth of a stab in the back being created in real time is an enlightening process.
What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
The outer edge of remain appears every bit as uncompromising as the outer edge of leave.
Extremes are extreme and the rational middle always fails to understand their religion like devotion to their version of the truth. It's a sub-Trump binary view of the word, compromise means that I've lost rather than gained something I might not have had at all.
The rational middle is massively under-represented on the media with regards to this deal right now. It's all BETRAYAL BETRAYAL BETRAYAL or screamin g remainers
+1
Most people I know were on the fence on Brexit and they don't seem to be represented in the current debate.
Initial polling in the deal was very bad, wasn't it? Seems like they're being represented proportionately to the public
Part of me feels a bit like that but, as soon as May lost her majority it gave the EU the opportunity to go harder in the negotiations. They knew the landing strip for a deal was tiny and they took the opportunity to make us land on it. If May had a working majority the strip would've been wider.
I agree that loss of the majority was a blow for May.
But the landing strip was always small because the referendum was only won by a whisker, and large sections of the UK (Scotland, N Ireland, London) disagreed.
The weakness of the UK's position stems from that. The country is bitterly divided, and no negotiating team can drive a bargain from a position of such weakness.
I understand the government has agreed to have amendments before the main vote on the bill.
I assume this means those wanting a second referendum can put it forward and it is voted on
On the assumption it falls this then makes the vote between deal or no deal
Am I right or am I missing something
Very good question. Anyone know?
Problem with that specific example is that Labour won't vote for a referendum unless it's first had a shot at defeating the deal directly.
If they don’t they have to go for some kind of vote and renegotiation.
There will be no re-negotiation. The idea that the EU will be happy, after two years of talking to scrap it all and start over again talking for another 2 years is idiotic.
Barnier did not rule it out.
Sounds to me that you think a Corbyn led Government could negotiate a better deal
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
Going to be tough to do that if May is simultaneously trying to threaten the ERG by saying a no vote might lead to remain
I understand the government has agreed to have amendments before the main vote on the bill.
I assume this means those wanting a second referendum can put it forward and it is voted on
On the assumption it falls this then makes the vote between deal or no deal
Am I right or am I missing something
Very good question. Anyone know?
Problem with that specific example is that Labour won't vote for a referendum unless it's first had a shot at defeating the deal directly.
If they don’t they have to go for some kind of vote and renegotiation.
There will be no re-negotiation. The idea that the EU will be happy, after two years of talking to scrap it all and start over again talking for another 2 years is idiotic.
Remain = The deal + being able to vote on regulations.
We could call it the deal+ if that would make some Tories happier. They could simply not bother to turn up to parliament or the council of ministers and achieve the same result.
My guess would be that there are plenty of voters willing to trade having a vote and allowing the politicians to grandstand at EU summits in return for a misplaced sense of national identity.
Identity politics is a strange thing.
Being out of the Common Agricultural Policy is a real plus though.
I have to say the group that are the most amusing to watch right now are the self-proclaimed moderate Leavers who are starting to realise that all that Danegeld that they have paid might have bought them less than nothing.
I have to say the group that are the most amusing to watch right now are the self-proclaimed moderate Leavers who are starting to realise that all that Danegeld that they have paid might have bought them less than nothing.
Maybe. I certainly don't want a No-Deal, and I want a deal which doesn't damage our economy in a large way.
But I don't want to still be part of the EU, or where the EU is heading.
Why should Labour vote for a shit deal? A deal that makes our electorate poorer? A deal that when passed shores up May and allows her to carry on dismembering public services? Hancock warns that a no deal may kill people - they're ALREADY killing the disabled so its a bit late to take that particular high ground.
As has been pointed out below neither the EU or UK want no deal. So the idea that its this or no deal is absurd - there is still time and willing to do something better. Just not with this government in office.
There is no majority for this is parliament. A deal that does not have the backing of our sovereign parliament is not a deal. Take back control meant from Brussels to Parliament so if its gets voted down that truly is honouring the referendum.
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
Going to be tough to do that if May is simultaneously trying to threaten the ERG by saying a no vote might lead to remain
If May can't get it through Parliament, then the obvious step is (like Greece) to ask the EU for a short extension and call a plebiscite. This will be against a background of falls in sterling and the stock market. The air of crisis will be palpable.
I think May's deal would win a 3 way plebiscite, because the middle option is usually favoured.
But the plebiscite may actually be 2 way, as Remain may not have enough votes in Parliament to put it on the ballot.
On topic, if you're Trump, in addition to your massive ego, you've already scored a victory when everyone was writing you off. And he's surrounded himself with sycophants. It's hard to see what could persuade him that 2020 is hopeless, even if it is.
On the investigations, the presidency is still going to help him protect himself and his people from their crimes, so it's hard to see him giving it up voluntarily.
Damn. I meant to take the 8/1 Raab but it slipped my mind on the way back from watching Sky News in the fish and chip shop. Anyway, hat-tip to whoever pointed out the possibility when Raab cancelled his trip to Brussels.
I know some of my pet theories are a little sideways, and many fall by the wayside. It's nice when, even if the comment has generated tumbleweed in response on the thread (I don't post as heavily behind a pet theory to guarantee feedback as, say, HYUFD does), but it is pleasing when things turn up in a thread header weeks later.
May I once again roll out my 'Britain has leveraged the Irish border just as hard as the EU did' line. I think Britain getting progressively out of FoM, much ECJ jurisdiction, most payment, yet still be lined up customs and regulation wise to allow a decent trade deal: achieving this combination would have been impossible without the Irish border.
I trumpet this again now because, should the deal pass, I expect exactly the same trick to be used in the trade talks to maximize UK goods access. It is clear that major NI/RoI cross border sectors like meat processing will have very strong trade settlements. However, I also expect that many debates during the trade talks that, as much as the boardrooms of Bavaria, there will be regular focus on the needs of the small niche businesses of Galway, across lots of sectors, and exporting to the tune of a few tens of thousands a year.
Damn. I meant to take the 8/1 Raab but it slipped my mind on the way back from watching Sky News in the fish and chip shop. Anyway, hat-tip to whoever pointed out the possibility when Raab cancelled his trip to Brussels.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got the best bloody deal anyone could. May isn't to blame for this shitshow, she didn't call the referendum and took a hospital pass to become PM. Her sense of duty is frankly amazing - better than any of the rest of the complete shower in the commons. I'm most pissed off with the ERG, traitors to a man.
May has kept the show on the road and with the lack of preparation for No-Deal has probably done as well as could be expected. Given the country remains divided it’s impossible to get a deal that pleases everyone - and given the people this one is upsetting suggests May is on the right track...
And who's fault is that FFS?
The Leavers who said No Deal was Project Fear, because inter alia, we held all the aces.
Because every single talking head in the media is opposed to the deal - but people on the Telly generally don't have regular jobs getting orders for their company in the general economy. I'm surprised it is as high as 28%, it's a segment completely unrepresented on the airwaves.
The media is completely disconnected from economic reality and is badly underestimating the probability of a complete crashout. What the hell did people expect from the agreement. I'm furious, at everyone. This must be how the anti Trump wing of the GOP felt back in 2016 !
Maybe reserve some of that fury for May, with whom so much of the blame lies?
May has got the best bloody deal anyone could. May isn't to blame for this shitshow, she didn't call the referendum and took a hospital pass to become PM. Her sense of duty is frankly amazing - better than any of the rest of the complete shower in the commons. I'm most pissed off with the ERG, traitors to a man.
May has kept the show on the road and with the lack of preparation for No-Deal has probably done as well as could be expected. Given the country remains divided it’s impossible to get a deal that pleases everyone - and given the people this one is upsetting suggests May is on the right track...
And who's fault is that FFS?
The Leavers who said No Deal was Project Fear, because inter alia, we held all the aces.
Me? Are you kidding? Hey, I was with you all the time! That was beautiful! Did you see the way they fell into our trap? Ha ha!
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
Going to be tough to do that if May is simultaneously trying to threaten the ERG by saying a no vote might lead to remain
If May can't get it through Parliament, then the obvious step is (like Greece) to ask the EU for a short extension and call a plebiscite. This will be against a background of falls in sterling and the stock market. The air of crisis will be palpable.
I think May's deal would win a 3 way plebiscite, because the middle option is usually favoured.
But the plebiscite may actually be 2 way, as Remain may not have enough votes in Parliament to put it on the ballot.
I think if you go the referendum way you need a simple Accept Deal or Reject Deal option. If the result is accept, carry on with the deal with the blessing of the public. If the result is reject the deal then offer a leave WTO or Remain (on terms to be confirmed before the referendum) I think binary choices are best in a referendum.
It may help May (sorry). How can a member of the cabinet keep any credibility if they belatedly resign after a junior minister literally nobody has heard of and some people don't even know the gender of has flounced? The laughter would follow them all the way to the deselection meeting.
So fingers crossed that is exactly what McVey does. Win/win.
Let's see if this analysis holds up and nobody takes Raab's resignation seriously because it happened a couple of hours after a nobody's.
That's what the govt needs to do now. They need to go hard on the realities of No Deal. Tell the public that No Deal will happen, that all sorts of industries will be (temporarily) in the shit and that the govt will get the blame for it, allowing Corbyn in.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
Going to be tough to do that if May is simultaneously trying to threaten the ERG by saying a no vote might lead to remain
If May can't get it through Parliament, then the obvious step is (like Greece) to ask the EU for a short extension and call a plebiscite. This will be against a background of falls in sterling and the stock market. The air of crisis will be palpable.
I think May's deal would win a 3 way plebiscite, because the middle option is usually favoured.
But the plebiscite may actually be 2 way, as Remain may not have enough votes in Parliament to put it on the ballot.
I think if you go the referendum way you need a simple Accept Deal or Reject Deal option. If the result is accept, carry on with the deal with the blessing of the public. If the result is reject the deal then offer a leave WTO or Remain (on terms to be confirmed) I think binary choices are best in a referendum.
There is a whole of mountain of arguments before we settle the question or questions, for sure.
On topic, if you're Trump, in addition to your massive ego, you've already scored a victory when everyone was writing you off. And he's surrounded himself with sycophants. It's hard to see what could persuade him that 2020 is hopeless, even if it is.
On the investigations, the presidency is still going to help him protect himself and his people from their crimes, so it's hard to see him giving it up voluntarily.
Trump being super rich is part of his self identity. He has regularly threatened to sue people who say he is only a little rich.
Having his tax returns exposed is a full attack on his essential being.
Was obvious watching Peston's show last night that the deal is dead. The contempt for it and May amongst ardent Remainers like Heidi Allen and Brexiteers in Dorries alike said it all.
With Raab quitting , and others surely following, I can't see the "deal" even surviving the day.
It may help May (sorry). How can a member of the cabinet keep any credibility if they belatedly resign after a junior minister literally nobody has heard of and some people don't even know the gender of has flounced? The laughter would follow them all the way to the deselection meeting.
So fingers crossed that is exactly what McVey does. Win/win.
Let's see if this analysis holds up and nobody takes Raab's resignation seriously because it happened a couple of hours after a nobody's.
My prediction: it does not.
The Brexit secretary resigning after refusing the deal that his own dept supposedly negotiated must be a huge deal. It surely must undermine the agreement.
On topic, if you're Trump, in addition to your massive ego, you've already scored a victory when everyone was writing you off. And he's surrounded himself with sycophants. It's hard to see what could persuade him that 2020 is hopeless, even if it is.
On the investigations, the presidency is still going to help him protect himself and his people from their crimes, so it's hard to see him giving it up voluntarily.
Trump being super rich is part of his self identity. He has regularly threatened to sue people who say he is only a little rich.
Having his tax returns exposed is a full attack on his essential being.
OTOH if he didn't have much money before, that makes the amount that he's making by abusing the office of the presidency harder to give up.
Bet Shailesh Vara thought he'd get a bit more publicity this morning.
May's tougher out everything thrown at her so far. This looks like an even sterner test now. I reckon her only option is to win a vote of confidence and do a deal with Corbyn..
To put letters in will require a vote, which May may win and keep her in post for another year. Far better to put her in a locked room with a loaded automatic to play Russian roulette...
Morning all. I can’t see a way out of this mess. Surely our politicians are not going to let us crash out of the EU with no deal. If they do they can forget being elected again. Suspend A50 and have a referendum.
Comments
This could be the deathknell for Tory eurosceptism as a big force in the country.
Take responsibility, man!
We could call it the deal+ if that would make some Tories happier. They could simply not bother to turn up to parliament or the council of ministers and achieve the same result.
Her sense of "duty" (which I guess is how we're rebranding the utter arrogance and ambition that blew away fifteen points of poll lead during the election) means stubbornly insisting that she- a terrible salesperson- will be the one selling this deal. If that fails, it will be due to her putting her own career over the country's interests
That's not to say that there isn't a lot of blame to go around to others too. But May isn't the victim here, the UK is, and if we all suffer from her consistent record of fuck-ups, I'm certainly not giving her a free pass
To be fair, it IS more entertaining to read "X lashes his party leadership" than "X thinks his leadership has got it about right".
A second referendum before the end of next year is 3, the absence thereof is 1.33.
At the moment, not tempted by any of that.
Problem with that specific example is that Labour won't vote for a referendum unless it's first had a shot at defeating the deal directly.
If Labour ultimately back this they should expect something significant in return.
If they don’t they have to go for some kind of vote and renegotiation.
Now that May has secured a deal the optics will look terrible for those who strike it down. In the eyes of the public she'll be seen as constructive as opposed to the destructive ones who vote it down.
Not that any of the Juche Brexiteers would be willing to do the hard work which trade deals involve in any case.
I am not a fan of the deal. I disliked the terms of our membership.
I would prefer either one of Remain, but be in completely, Euro, Schengen the whole Monty, or to leave and be out completely to WTO.
They may be considered extreme positions, but both are coherent logical positions, unlike the festering hybrid dogs dinner of the deal or remain on old terms.
If asked to vote on the two options I prefer, I would go for full EU membership.
But, I find it difficult to be furious with her.
Our unresolved problems with the EU go back for decades, and the blame is much more widely dispersed. I wouldn't even blame just our present politicians, far less the anaemic figure of May.
By the way, does the Lords have to approve too? I assume so.
The alternative is No Deal, and if No Deal leads to (even) three months of economic problems, it'll probably be the end for the Tories at the next GE.
And I think Corbyn is a bigger threat than a pokey, halfway house deal with the EU, under terms which will barely affect any ordinary people.
Most people I know were on the fence on Brexit and they don't seem to be represented in the current debate.
But the landing strip was always small because the referendum was only won by a whisker, and large sections of the UK (Scotland, N Ireland, London) disagreed.
The weakness of the UK's position stems from that. The country is bitterly divided, and no negotiating team can drive a bargain from a position of such weakness.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1062992085127782400
Identity politics is a strange thing.
Being out of the Common Agricultural Policy is a real plus though.
Thats it then May's done.
She can't sell a deal her Minister disowns.
Well what will be will be......
But I don't want to still be part of the EU, or where the EU is heading.
As has been pointed out below neither the EU or UK want no deal. So the idea that its this or no deal is absurd - there is still time and willing to do something better. Just not with this government in office.
There is no majority for this is parliament. A deal that does not have the backing of our sovereign parliament is not a deal. Take back control meant from Brussels to Parliament so if its gets voted down that truly is honouring the referendum.
I think May's deal would win a 3 way plebiscite, because the middle option is usually favoured.
But the plebiscite may actually be 2 way, as Remain may not have enough votes in Parliament to put it on the ballot.
On the investigations, the presidency is still going to help him protect himself and his people from their crimes, so it's hard to see him giving it up voluntarily.
Life for people who voted for Brexit will not be pleasant if people start dying because of No Deal.
Their families will want vengeance.
May I once again roll out my 'Britain has leveraged the Irish border just as hard as the EU did' line. I think Britain getting progressively out of FoM, much ECJ jurisdiction, most payment, yet still be lined up customs and regulation wise to allow a decent trade deal: achieving this combination would have been impossible without the Irish border.
I trumpet this again now because, should the deal pass, I expect exactly the same trick to be used in the trade talks to maximize UK goods access. It is clear that major NI/RoI cross border sectors like meat processing will have very strong trade settlements. However, I also expect that many debates during the trade talks that, as much as the boardrooms of Bavaria, there will be regular focus on the needs of the small niche businesses of Galway, across lots of sectors, and exporting to the tune
of a few tens of thousands a year.
EDIT: Nothing has changed, nothing has changed.
Raab for PM?
https://www.buzzfeed.com/patricksmith/nobody-said-it-was-easy
If the result is accept, carry on with the deal with the blessing of the public.
If the result is reject the deal then offer a leave WTO or Remain (on terms to be confirmed before the referendum)
I think binary choices are best in a referendum.
My prediction: it does not.
"Raab" is the German name for the Hungarian city of Gyor.
Having his tax returns exposed is a full attack on his essential being.
Hmmmmm........
With Raab quitting , and others surely following, I can't see the "deal" even surviving the day.
And possibly not even the PM either.
Biggest crisis Britain has faced since WWII.
And no obvious way out of this nightmare.
What do we do?
Raab doesn’t have many supporters, he’s just one no vote.
May's tougher out everything thrown at her so far. This looks like an even sterner test now. I reckon her only option is to win a vote of confidence and do a deal with Corbyn..
I always thought the EU held all the best cards but May has been pathetic as a negotiator.
GE has to be more and more likely.
To lose 1 BREXIT Secretary is careless to lose 2 .........
.
Just logging on to find Raab gone.