It may help May (sorry). How can a member of the cabinet keep any credibility if they belatedly resign after a junior minister literally nobody has heard of and some people don't even know the gender of has flounced? The laughter would follow them all the way to the deselection meeting.
So fingers crossed that is exactly what McVey does. Win/win.
Let's see if this analysis holds up and nobody takes Raab's resignation seriously because it happened a couple of hours after a nobody's.
My prediction: it does not.
The Brexit secretary resigning after refusing the deal that his own dept supposedly negotiated must be a huge deal. It surely must undermine the agreement.
Reading that letter, how can others stay in the Cabinet e.g. McVey, Mourdant.
Re Brexit: Let us apply the first test shall we ? Which of the EU27 will look at May's deal and think it's worth emulating ? Denmark and Sweden are the obvious candidates - northern europeans, history of euroscepticism, non € members. Do we think they'll be tempted by this outcome ?
Or let us consider EFTA. Will say Norway decide May's deal is better than ' fax diplomacy ' ?
After all a key Brexiter trope is that Brexit will be the first domino to fall. And after all the talk of x,y,z models we now have the British model. We will see who thinks it's a good one.
I don't think it's a key Brexiter trope. Most are more than happy for the EU to carry on it's merry way.
Indeed. Mr submarine is taking something that some have indeed said but then expanding it out as central to all to make things seem worse than they are.
I have to say, it is looking like the Establishment that got the Referendum result so wrong has doubled down on its fuck-up - by assuming it could just bounce us into BINO.
Was obvious watching Peston's show last night that the deal is dead. The contempt for it and May amongst ardent Remainers like Heidi Allen and Brexiteers in Dorries alike said it all.
With Raab quitting , and others surely following, I can't see the "deal" even surviving the day.
On topic, if you're Trump, in addition to your massive ego, you've already scored a victory when everyone was writing you off. And he's surrounded himself with sycophants. It's hard to see what could persuade him that 2020 is hopeless, even if it is.
On the investigations, the presidency is still going to help him protect himself and his people from their crimes, so it's hard to see him giving it up voluntarily.
Trump being super rich is part of his self identity. He has regularly threatened to sue people who say he is only a little rich.
Having his tax returns exposed is a full attack on his essential being.
OTOH if he didn't have much money before, that makes the amount that he's making by abusing the office of the presidency harder to give up.
Yes he's absolutely creaming it. Just the money funnelled into the Trump org from the secret service is massive.
I have to say, it is looking like the Establishment that got the Referendum result so wrong has doubled down on its fuck-up - by assuming it could just bounce us into BINO.
If not this Deal it will be Remain, Remain beats No Deal in every poll taken
setting the headline froth aside, all we have seen in this process is that the coterie of people who have negotiated on the nations behalf for the last 40 years or so are not that good at negotiating.
So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.
I’m guessing that there might be up to 47 letters in with rumours of several more that never seem to arrive. The key today is May’s statement to the House. She needs to make the case for her deal and persuade potential supporters on either side of the House that TINA applies once again.
She is actually quite good at responding to questions in that kind of scenario. She does detail well. It’s the big vision/inspiration thing she finds more difficult.
Problem is most of the Mps who need to back her have already been so firm in rejection that they are not persuadable. What can she possibly say to get dozens of labour mps to back this? Her strongest card is suggesting we might remain after all and most labour mps want that.
The even bigger problem is the anti dealers all over want contradictory things but all appear utterly confident voting down the deal will get what they, and only they, want. Dr Palmer essentially summarised that blase attitude last night, boiling down to 'it would work out somehow'.
Even if this is a bad deal and she is author of many of her own misfortunes I feel sorry for May trying to sell this. She's speaking to a brick wall in the commons, most of them cannot see past the remain/no deal prize that is technically possible but much harder than they pretend.
It may help May (sorry). How can a member of the cabinet keep any credibility if they belatedly resign after a junior minister literally nobody has heard of and some people don't even know the gender of has flounced? The laughter would follow them all the way to the deselection meeting.
So fingers crossed that is exactly what McVey does. Win/win.
Let's see if this analysis holds up and nobody takes Raab's resignation seriously because it happened a couple of hours after a nobody's.
My prediction: it does not.
The Brexit secretary resigning after refusing the deal that his own dept supposedly negotiated must be a huge deal. It surely must undermine the agreement.
Reading that letter, how can others stay in the Cabinet e.g. McVey, Mourdant.
A modern day Geoffrey Howe? That letter undermines the whole agreement. In particular, "No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime....".
Was obvious watching Peston's show last night that the deal is dead. The contempt for it and May amongst ardent Remainers like Heidi Allen and Brexiteers in Dorries alike said it all.
With Raab quitting , and others surely following, I can't see the "deal" even surviving the day.
And possibly not even the PM either.
Biggest crisis Britain has faced since WWII.
And no obvious way out of this nightmare.
What do we do?
Simple. Remain.
But remain doesn't sort out the issue, which is that a significant proportion of our population - and a majority in the case of the 2016 referendum - are not happy with being in the EU.
The *only* way remain is a goer is after another referendum, *if* it gets a large majority. If there is such a referendum and leave wins, or there is a narrow remain wins, we're still in the sh*t.
Just remaining means we'll go through all of this again in a couple of years.
So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.
I’m guessing that there might be up to 47 letters in with rumours of several more that never seem to arrive. The key today is May’s statement to the House. She needs to make the case for her deal and persuade potential supporters on either side of the House that TINA applies once again.
She is actually quite good at responding to questions in that kind of scenario. She does detail well. It’s the big vision/inspiration thing she finds more difficult.
Problem is most of the Mps who need to back her have already been so firm in rejection that they are not persuadable. What can she possibly say to get dozens of labour mps to back this? Her strongest card is suggesting we might remain after all and most labour mps want that.
The even bigger problem is the anti dealers all over want contradictory things but all appear utterly confident voting down the deal will get what they, and only they, want. Dr Palmer essentially summarised that blase attitude last night, boiling down to 'it would work out somehow'.
Even if this is a bad deal and she is author of many of her own misfortunes I feel sorry for May trying to sell this. She's speaking to a brick wall in the commons, most of them cannot see past the remain/no deal prize that is technically possible but much harder than they pretend.
"Prime Minister, how can you stand there and promote a deal which the Minister charged with delivering it has walked away from, saying it is a betrayal of that which the voters instructed you to achieve in 2017?"
How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.
It has been surprising how many Conservatives are indifferent to the fate of Northern Ireland, and Scotland for that matter. It is not a crude English nationalism but rather that many seem to know nothing and care less.
To take a topical example, how many pb Tories could have named the full Northern Ireland ministerial team last night?
Even wonks are not expected to know who junior ministers are.
But remain doesn't sort out the issue, which is that a significant proportion of our population - and a majority in the case of the 2016 referendum - are not happy with being in the EU.
So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.
I’m guessing that there might be up to 47 letters in with rumours of several more that never seem to arrive. The key today is May’s statement to the House. She needs to make the case for her deal and persuade potential supporters on either side of the House that TINA applies once again.
She is actually quite good at responding to questions in that kind of scenario. She does detail well. It’s the big vision/inspiration thing she finds more difficult.
Problem is most of the Mps who need to back her have already been so firm in rejection that they are not persuadable. What can she possibly say to get dozens of labour mps to back this? Her strongest card is suggesting we might remain after all and most labour mps want that.
The even bigger problem is the anti dealers all over want contradictory things but all appear utterly confident voting down the deal will get what they, and only they, want. Dr Palmer essentially summarised that blase attitude last night, boiling down to 'it would work out somehow'.
Even if this is a bad deal and she is author of many of her own misfortunes I feel sorry for May trying to sell this. She's speaking to a brick wall in the commons, most of them cannot see past the remain/no deal prize that is technically possible but much harder than they pretend.
"Prime Minister, how can you stand there and promote a deal which the Minister charged with delivering it has walked away from, saying it is a betrayal of that which the voters instructed you to achieve in 2017?"
2017 - She was told "we don't like what you're doing, so we're removing your majority" Her response was to carry on.
I have to say, it is looking like the Establishment that got the Referendum result so wrong has doubled down on its fuck-up - by assuming it could just bounce us into BINO.
If not this Deal it will be Remain, Remain beats No Deal in every poll taken
No, because an election will become about all the other issues..
We now need to sort out the relationship with the EU.
Agree, an election covers all topics and introduces (even more) tribal opinion. This isn't Labour Good / bad or Tory Good / bad, it is about EU, not forming a government. It is a single issue to be sorted.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
The outer edge of remain appears every bit as uncompromising as the outer edge of leave.
Extremes are extreme and the rational middle always fails to understand their religion like devotion to their version of the truth. It's a sub-Trump binary view of the word, compromise means that I've lost rather than gained something I might not have had at all.
The rational middle is massively under-represented on the media with regards to this deal right now. It's all BETRAYAL BETRAYAL BETRAYAL or screamin g remainers
+1
Most people I know were on the fence on Brexit and they don't seem to be represented in the current debate.
The lady on Radio 5 at about 9:10 echoed my views to be honest.
So Labour wants an election SO BADLY they will own No Deal Brexit to get one?
What could possibly go wrong?
No, Brexit is a Tory project. If it fails then like Iraq, the voters will know who to blame.
With this important difference - Iraq would have happened regardless of the result of the vote, and the majority of the Labour party supported it.
If we lose this and get no deal Brexit because Corbyn is a posturing wanker and the rest of the party are spineless cowards, Labour will not soon be forgiven.
Not forgiven by some Tories maybe. Mays party is government because it has more seats than Labour. The fact it can’t marshall them in support of its own plan is no ones fault but it’s own.
And those in the centre of British politics - a growing unrepresented contingent deeply disillusioned with the two main parties.
The non Tory centre is against the deal.
They might be against the deal, but as soon as the consquence of rejecting this deal is.....no deal. then the issue will move onto that.
That’s bullshit used by the govt to strong arm the vote . Other outcomes are possible.
But how plausible are they? Why would the EU suddenly become more accommodating for both extensions and a new negotiation for instance?
The confidence of anti dealers is reckless and irresponsible. That does not mean voting down a bad deal is necessarily wrong of them nor that they definitely should not attempt an alternative. But acting like the government's warning of no deal as a consequence is baseless would be entirely wrong, as would assuming it will all work out better with a GE or extension for example.
If they are going to take that gamble I would prefer they be honest it is a gamble, and focus on saying it is a gamble worth taking.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
I always try to vote for a candidate rather than a party. But there's no way I could ever vote for a Conservative Party led by a Brexiteer.
No fucking way.
They've lost me as a voter. And the alternatives are voting for a party led by an anti-Semite and another led by the invisible man ...
Still it showed martin McGuinness had a sense of humour
Martin McGuinness was still milking the joke in the otherwise tense opening session of the Stormont Assembly, when he remarked on how good it was to meet Wilson at last – “great to see him today with all his clothes on”.
Having discovered that Britain is an island close to France, Dominic Raab has now worked out that he has spent the last few months working ion a deal that essentially keeps the UK in the Customs Union and Single Market for the forseeable future. If he were to become PM he will need ot speed up his ability to learn and absorb information.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
I always try to vote for a candidate rather than a party. But there's no way I could ever vote for a Conservative Party led by a Brexiteer.
No fucking way.
They've lost me as a voter. And the alternatives are voting for a party led by an anti-Semite and another led by the invisible man ...
Genuine question here... did May really not have unequivocal agreement from Raab before taking the draft agreement to Cabinet? If not, that does seem a bit rash.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
I always try to vote for a candidate rather than a party. But there's no way I could ever vote for a Conservative Party led by a Brexiteer.
No fucking way.
They've lost me as a voter. And the alternatives are voting for a party led by an anti-Semite and another led by the invisible man ...
I resigned from the Lib Dems yesterday, I'd vote for the Tories lead by May in a heartbeat - but would actively consider voting Labour if one of the treacherous brexiteers took charge. Considering my Dad is a Tory mayor that'd be a step I've never taken before.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
I always try to vote for a candidate rather than a party. But there's no way I could ever vote for a Conservative Party led by a Brexiteer.
No fucking way.
They've lost me as a voter. And the alternatives are voting for a party led by an anti-Semite and another led by the invisible man ...
Cometh the hour, cometh the Pirates?
(Other minor parties are also available)
"You're forgetting one thing, mate: I'm Captain Jack Sparrow!"
You’re better off not voting for something you disagree with.
But you're better off abstaining on Brexit - if you want to paint it as a Tory project.
Just sit back and let the Tories tear chunks out of themselves.
But no....Labour has to join in the shit-fest.
Politically it might be better for labour if the Tories squeeze through a bad deal.
But since the deal only passes with their support they can sink it or not. They would share, quite rightly, some opprobrium if they voted down a deal and we ended up with no deal.
However the Tories would, rightly, take the lions share of any ill feeling. They are driving it and with allies should have a majority so would be the focus.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
ERG don't care. They are as obsessed with the purity of their vision as any Marxist dreamer.
Brexit Secretary goes after negotiations completed largely by PM
ANOTHER Brexit Secretary goes after negotiations imposed largely by PM.
Try Olly Robbins! Do you really think May had anything to do with the negotiations or writing the agreement except to nod her head - well, she does want to be another Churchill?
What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
The outer edge of remain appears every bit as uncompromising as the outer edge of leave.
Extremes are extreme and the rational middle always fails to understand their religion like devotion to their version of the truth. It's a sub-Trump binary view of the word, compromise means that I've lost rather than gained something I might not have had at all.
The rational middle is massively under-represented on the media with regards to this deal right now. It's all BETRAYAL BETRAYAL BETRAYAL or screamin g remainers
+1
Most people I know were on the fence on Brexit and they don't seem to be represented in the current debate.
The debate right now is in the commons, where there is no middle, so are not significant.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
I always try to vote for a candidate rather than a party. But there's no way I could ever vote for a Conservative Party led by a Brexiteer.
No fucking way.
They've lost me as a voter. And the alternatives are voting for a party led by an anti-Semite and another led by the invisible man ...
I resigned from the Lib Dems yesterday, I'd vote for the Tories lead by May in a heartbeat - but would actively consider voting Labour if one of the treacherous brexiteers took charge. Considering my Dad is a Tory mayor that'd be a step I've never taken before.
There's no way I could vote for Labour with Corbyn in charge. But there's no way I could vote for a Tory Brexiteer either.
An issue is that I quite like my own MP, Heidi Allen. But I've not been impressed with her recent pronouncements.
Haven't all these ERG members worked out the absolute horrific damage they're doing to the Tories right now. The DUP must be absolutely laughing at them.
I always try to vote for a candidate rather than a party. But there's no way I could ever vote for a Conservative Party led by a Brexiteer.
No fucking way.
They've lost me as a voter. And the alternatives are voting for a party led by an anti-Semite and another led by the invisible man ...
I resigned from the Lib Dems yesterday, I'd vote for the Tories lead by May in a heartbeat - but would actively consider voting Labour if one of the treacherous brexiteers took charge. Considering my Dad is a Tory mayor that'd be a step I've never taken before.
There's no way I could vote for Labour with Corbyn in charge. But there's no way I could vote for a Tory Brexiteer either.
An issue is that I quite like my own MP, Heidi Allen. But I've not been impressed with her recent pronouncements.
If I were the EU and wanted to give May the biggest amount of help without wanting to be seen to be actually helping, I’d be trying to get an EU leader or two or even the full 27 to be saying something along the lines of we’re not extending Article 50.
That puts paid to the whole “oh if we vote this deal down we can ask the nice EU for a bit more time so that we can do some more interminable negotiations and get the magic bean deal that’s just out there!”
I agree. The EU must be fed up to the back teeth with Britain. They should simply say that this is the deal - take it or leave it - so that our self-indulgent politicians realise that the choice is this or No Deal. Those who think that a different government will be able to get some better deal are delusional. If anything the EU may skew the deal even more in its favour. But I rather suspect that they want an end to this interminable saga, made worse by the failure of so many Brexiteers to live in the real world.
Raab - a man who apparently didn't realise the importance of the Dover-Calais route is, frankly, no loss.
Comments
why do they all turn out prima donnas
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062839264831041537?s=21
Not sure Hunt wants to be left out of the successor stakes either....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-30004430
Do you support the deal: Yes/No
If no wins, what do you support: No deal/Remain
They can’t say you didn’t try.
The even bigger problem is the anti dealers all over want contradictory things but all appear utterly confident voting down the deal will get what they, and only they, want. Dr Palmer essentially summarised that blase attitude last night, boiling down to 'it would work out somehow'.
Even if this is a bad deal and she is author of many of her own misfortunes I feel sorry for May trying to sell this. She's speaking to a brick wall in the commons, most of them cannot see past the remain/no deal prize that is technically possible but much harder than they pretend.
Footnote. Remain will walk it. Everyone has now seen the calibre of the Leavers
We now need to sort out the relationship with the EU.
The *only* way remain is a goer is after another referendum, *if* it gets a large majority. If there is such a referendum and leave wins, or there is a narrow remain wins, we're still in the sh*t.
Just remaining means we'll go through all of this again in a couple of years.
Rory?
But Leavers sooner rather than Remainers.
Her response was to carry on.
The confidence of anti dealers is reckless and irresponsible. That does not mean voting down a bad deal is necessarily wrong of them nor that they definitely should not attempt an alternative. But acting like the government's warning of no deal as a consequence is baseless would be entirely wrong, as would assuming it will all work out better with a GE or extension for example.
If they are going to take that gamble I would prefer they be honest it is a gamble, and focus on saying it is a gamble worth taking.
No fucking way.
They've lost me as a voter. And the alternatives are voting for a party led by an anti-Semite and another led by the invisible man ...
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/sammy-wilson-naked-photos-do-we-need-the-naked-truth-about-public-figures-28377663.html
Still it showed martin McGuinness had a sense of humour
Martin McGuinness was still milking the joke in the otherwise tense opening session of the Stormont Assembly, when he remarked on how good it was to meet Wilson at last – “great to see him today with all his clothes on”.
(Other minor parties are also available)
But since the deal only passes with their support they can sink it or not. They would share, quite rightly, some opprobrium if they voted down a deal and we ended up with no deal.
However the Tories would, rightly, take the lions share of any ill feeling. They are driving it and with allies should have a majority so would be the focus.
https://twitter.com/raphael_hogarth/status/1063002653171634176?s=21
shame we havent got one
An issue is that I quite like my own MP, Heidi Allen. But I've not been impressed with her recent pronouncements.
Raab - a man who apparently didn't realise the importance of the Dover-Calais route is, frankly, no loss.