One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
The cabinet will back this. This deal and text didn't come out of thin air. They will have been aware of the parameters of the negotiation for some time and be signed up to them. The Tory party, that's trickier.
It's a gamble, walking now would enhance their leadership chances if it fails in the house.
If Raab walk now he'll be PM by Christmas. PM of an economic wasteland, but still PM.
Penny will doubtless flounce out, if May falls she'll be rewarded with a promotion.
If they walk and it passes, their career is over. Maybe safer to stay.
Raab will only be PM if May loses a No confidence vote and no sign of that and anyway Boris and Davis and Mogg are all ahead of him in the hard Brexit pecking order having opposed Chequers
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
This is only the withdrawal agreement. The "long-term relationship" negotiations are still to come. If on March 30th, say, Labour, SNP + LD get a motion through the commons saying "We instruct HMG to negotiate a permanent customs union with the EU", what do the Tories do?
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
The cabinet will back this. This deal and text didn't come out of thin air. They will have been aware of the parameters of the negotiation for some time and be signed up to them. The Tory party, that's trickier.
It's a gamble, walking now would enhance their leadership chances if it fails in the house.
If Raab walk now he'll be PM by Christmas. PM of an economic wasteland, but still PM.
Penny will doubtless flounce out, if May falls she'll be rewarded with a promotion.
If they walk and it passes, their career is over. Maybe safer to stay.
Raab will only be PM if May loses a No confidence vote and no sign of that and anyway Boris and Davis and Mogg are all ahead of him in the hard Brexit pecking order having opposed Chequers
Surely May couldn't stay if this fails, the letters will go in.
I disagree about Boris, Davis & Mogg as being ahead of Raab; the first two have proven themselves unfit for high office, the third doesn't appear to want it. If this falls Raab will be crowned.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
The cabinet will back this. This deal and text didn't come out of thin air. They will have been aware of the parameters of the negotiation for some time and be signed up to them. The Tory party, that's trickier.
It's a gamble, walking now would enhance their leadership chances if it fails in the house.
If Raab walk now he'll be PM by Christmas. PM of an economic wasteland, but still PM.
Penny will doubtless flounce out, if May falls she'll be rewarded with a promotion.
If they walk and it passes, their career is over. Maybe safer to stay.
Surely even the Tories would not want someone who has only just found out that Britain is an island close to France to be PM!
One EU, one people, one army. Why's everyone worried about that?
Like so many things we disagreed with we would have opted out. Didn't join the Euro. Didn't join Schengen. We have been very good at negotiating our own bespoke version of EU membership and very good at writing the rules and laws of the EU.
Which of course all proves that the foaming-dog-fever loons were correct when they insisted the EU dictate everything to us and we have no say. At least until yesterday when Boris announces that we DID have a say after all and would now lose it by doing what Boris said we needed to do to have a say.
Come on Tory cowards. If you truly believe the government to be the Enemy. That they are Traitors acting directly against the national interest. That they are giving away 1,000 years of sovereignty then DO SOMETHING. You cannot continue to take the Conservative Whip which associates you with these Quislings.
But they won't. Because as Mad Dog Tannen so aptly put it, they ain't nothin but a gutless yellow turd.
The amount of rhetoric on here this morning is incredible, and we don't know what the deal is yet!
For many it doesn't matter, JRM and the ERG will reject anything short of the Treaty of Troyes, Labour want an election and will do anything to get one.
The actual content of the deal is probably only relevant to a very small subset of those involved and interested on here.
The German Defence budget is rising 10% next year. At current exchange rates it'll be larger than ours. Lol. What Macron was talking about was pooling the extra defence spend Trump is goading European NATO states into to build European defence industry capacity. It's precisely that increased pool/project that will be so tempting to a country like the UK with it's own Defence industry to protect and promote. If that means contributing some troops to a joint EU brigade we'll do it.
Laughing stock doesn't begin to describe our reputation within Europe and the world. The Brexiteer leaders have sidled away to snipe from the sidelines leaving May and a ragbag of thickos to try to rescue what's left. These repulsive creatures having arrived from nowhere and spread their poison are now crawling their way back. They should be covered in Union Jacks and dumped in St Helena.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
This is only the withdrawal agreement. The "long-term relationship" negotiations are still to come. If on March 30th, say, Labour, SNP + LD get a motion through the commons saying "We instruct HMG to negotiate a permanent customs union with the EU", what do the Tories do?
In practical terms they ignore it. It'd be tying the negotiators hands behind their backs.
A deal requires two parties and they can always say they tried.
If the commons really wants it, it needs to empower an executive that wishes to do so, they can't make a reluctant one do so.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
Neville Chamberlain was very good indeed as CoE. It was after he became PM that he went off a bit.
History is beginning to treat him significantly more kindly now we’ve moved past the Churchill-influenced historiography. In short, now it’s history not politics.
It really, really isn't. In fact if anything it's veering beyond what Churchill wrote and endorsing Michael Foot's judgements.
We can agree to disagree here. Perhaps you’ve been reading too much Boris Johnson though...
Never, to my knowledge, read a book by Boris Johnson. Alistair Parker, Richard Overy, Martin Gilbert and Kenneth Morgan, on the other hand...
To my mind it's the Grieves and co and their labour counterparts who are the key. If the remain ultras won't vote for it there simply won't be enough lab mps to counter the expected ERG votes against. Grieve could cause no deal because he us so dismayed at leaving at all. I wonder how he'll look his kids in the eyes if that happens.
We need to get used to a similar relationship with the EU that we have with the US. There will be lots of rhetoric about a special, close relationship, but when push comes to shove we’ll have to go along with the bigger beast when it wants something.
Or with the EU building its own army to contain Russia, the USA and China in the words of Macron we could just stay out of it and work with whichever best serves our interests
The German Defence budget is rising 10% next year. At current exchange rates it'll be larger than ours. Lol. What Macron was talking about was pooling the extra defence spend Trump is goading European NATO states into to build European defence industry capacity. It's precisely that increased pool/project that will be so tempting to a country like the UK with it's own Defence industry to protect and promote. If that means contributing some troops to a joint EU brigade we'll do it.
Because the idea of it allows traitors, cowards, and anyone else who would shit themselves at the thought of actually serving their country, a convenient and safe boogeyman to rail against.
One EU, one people, one army. Why's everyone worried about that?
Like so many things we disagreed with we would have opted out. Didn't join the Euro. Didn't join Schengen. We have been very good at negotiating our own bespoke version of EU membership and very good at writing the rules and laws of the EU.
Which of course all proves that the foaming-dog-fever loons were correct when they insisted the EU dictate everything to us and we have no say. At least until yesterday when Boris announces that we DID have a say after all and would now lose it by doing what Boris said we needed to do to have a say.
Come on Tory cowards. If you truly believe the government to be the Enemy. That they are Traitors acting directly against the national interest. That they are giving away 1,000 years of sovereignty then DO SOMETHING. You cannot continue to take the Conservative Whip which associates you with these Quislings.
But they won't. Because as Mad Dog Tannen so aptly put it, they ain't nothin but a gutless yellow turd.
If they vote against her Deal May will remove the whip from them anyway
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
But...but...but...that doesn't get Labour an election until 2022! Having to concede that the Tory PM got the best deal in the circumstances is not a place that Labour MPs want to go - even if to prevent doing so they have to make the (feeble) argument that they wanted exactly these arrangments but in a Red wrapper, not a Blue one.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
The amount of rhetoric on here this morning is incredible, and we don't know what the deal is yet!
Like mps we don't need to know to know, for the most part, who will vote for or against it. What's in it is largely irrelevant, what matters is whether mps think something else they want is achievable if they vote it down. Corbyn thinks he can get his GE, remain ultras think they can get their remain, leave ultras think they get no deal or that a new deal is easy.
Only one of these can be right, but they all look committed and combined are too many.
Mr. Slackbladder, but also a plausible route to a second referendum and the perhaps strong possibility we end up remaining after all. Interesting to consider whether Leave or Remain MPs have the trickier choice.
The Cabinet will buckle. Maybe the odd resignation but the Conservative ministers now appear to be toothless wolves.
Because the idea of it allows traitors, cowards, and anyone else who would shit themselves at the thought of actually serving their country, a convenient and safe boogeyman to rail against.
Looking forward to seeing General Verhofstadt and Field Marshall Juncker deploying their forces
Various Brexiteer loons thought precisely that: we could leave and not compromise.
Yep - but loons will be loons. My guess is that most Leave voters were most bothered about immigration. If we leave next March, get more control over that, but have to be a ruletaker in other areas, the majority will be happy enough. It’s sub-optimal and it weakens us on the world stage, but - really - who cares?
So the Remainers are pivoting from, 'its never going to happen, you're in fantasy land' to.... 'it's not that bad, what are you worried about' on the EU army.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
The cabinet will back this. This deal and text didn't come out of thin air. They will have been aware of the parameters of the negotiation for some time and be signed up to them. The Tory party, that's trickier.
It's a gamble, walking now would enhance their leadership chances if it fails in the house.
If Raab walk now he'll be PM by Christmas. PM of an economic wasteland, but still PM.
Penny will doubtless flounce out, if May falls she'll be rewarded with a promotion.
If they walk and it passes, their career is over. Maybe safer to stay.
Raab will only be PM if May loses a No confidence vote and no sign of that and anyway Boris and Davis and Mogg are all ahead of him in the hard Brexit pecking order having opposed Chequers
Surely May couldn't stay if this fails, the letters will go in.
I disagree about Boris, Davis & Mogg as being ahead of Raab; the first two have proven themselves unfit for high office, the third doesn't appear to want it. If this falls Raab will be crowned.
Even if the letters go in May just needs 50.1% of MPs to back her and she cannot be challenged again for a year and will press on regardless, she is as stubborn as Corbyn who pressed on with 2/3 of his MPs against him and May got 60% of Tory MPs behind her even in 2016.
High Office with No Deal will require a true Brexiteer, even if May lost her no confidence vote and her Deal vote only Boris, Mogg and Davis etc need apply. Raab will forever be tainted with having backed Chequers
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
But...but...but...that doesn't get Labour an election until 2022! Having to concede that the Tory PM got the best deal in the circumstances is not a place that Labour MPs want to go - even if to prevent doing so they have to make the (feeble) argument that they wanted exactly these arrangments but in a Red wrapper, not a Blue one.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
No. May will make her Deal a vote of no confidence and if she loses that a manifesto commitment in a general election leading to Corbyn PM of a minority government anyway and we still get the same Deal anyway, just with a permanent Customs Union in writing this time.
Various Brexiteer loons thought precisely that: we could leave and not compromise.
Yep - but loons will be loons. My guess is that most Leave voters were most bothered about immigration. If we leave next March, get more control over that, but have to be a ruletaker in other areas, the majority will be happy enough. It’s sub-optimal and it weakens us on the world stage, but - really - who cares?
Because the idea of it allows traitors, cowards, and anyone else who would shit themselves at the thought of actually serving their country, a convenient and safe boogeyman to rail against.
The German Defence budget is rising 10% next year. At current exchange rates it'll be larger than ours. Lol. What Macron was talking about was pooling the extra defence spend Trump is goading European NATO states into to build European defence industry capacity. It's precisely that increased pool/project that will be so tempting to a country like the UK with it's own Defence industry to protect and promote. If that means contributing some troops to a joint EU brigade we'll do it.
No we won't.
Well, we might but we’d insist they were under our operational control and under our flag.
We wouldn’t have any say in EU defence policy and neither they in ours. We’d decide when to cooperate.
Laughing stock doesn't begin to describe our reputation within Europe and the world. The Brexiteer leaders have sidled away to snipe from the sidelines leaving May and a ragbag of thickos to try to rescue what's left. These repulsive creatures having arrived from nowhere and spread their poison are now crawling their way back. They should be covered in Union Jacks and dumped in St Helena.
After all, St. Helena is where we send those who threaten Europe....
(Whilst Napoleon was incarcerated there, we had four man-of-war on station, two sailing clockwise, two anticlockwise, to prevent any further attempts at his liberation. Not sure the Royal Navy has four vessels to spare for the task....)
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
But...but...but...that doesn't get Labour an election until 2022! Having to concede that the Tory PM got the best deal in the circumstances is not a place that Labour MPs want to go - even if to prevent doing so they have to make the (feeble) argument that they wanted exactly these arrangments but in a Red wrapper, not a Blue one.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
No. May will make her Deal a vote of no confidence and if she loses that a manifesto commitment in a general election leading to Corbyn PM of a minority government anyway and we still get the same Deal anyway, just wityh a permanent Customs Union in writing this time.
I would say it looks that way. GE here we come.
Althogh May can't make the Deal vote a strictly VoNC. She can only promise that if Deal falls she will immediately call for a GE vote or a confidence vote. Of course she might win the latter when DUP decide to keep her and send her back to Brussels.
If Theresa May can keep the cabinet together, get them to commit full support to her deal and squeeze the deal through parliament. whilst painting the ERG as a bunch of petulant Gremlins, then it will be a pretty remarkable achievement.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
But...but...but...that doesn't get Labour an election until 2022! Having to concede that the Tory PM got the best deal in the circumstances is not a place that Labour MPs want to go - even if to prevent doing so they have to make the (feeble) argument that they wanted exactly these arrangments but in a Red wrapper, not a Blue one.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
No. May will make her Deal a vote of no confidence and if she loses that a manifesto commitment in a general election leading to Corbyn PM of a minority government anyway and we still get the same Deal anyway, just with a permanent Customs Union in writing this time.
She can't. What is and isn't a confidence motion is now a latter of law, not the whim of the PM.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
So to win Labour votes she needs to say it's a permanent CU, to win Tory votes she needs to say it's a time-limited CU. Good luck with that.
Following the vote to leave the EU it fell to the government to negotiate the terms of our exit, constrained by what is practically possible (obviously) and by the need to avoid severe damage to the economy (obviously). This they have now done. I cannot see how anybody apart from the fanatics on either side (the Moggs, the Chukas) can in good faith vote it down.
I would be pretty confident that the following is the case:
1. There will be nothing to prevent any PM next March to go into trade deal negotiations and negotiate a Canada. This is because much of what is envisioned by Chequers will simply be noted as Britain's position in the non binding future trade statement.
2. There will be nothing to prevent delivery of the kind of border envisioned by the Brexiteers, if, as they say, it will deliver a seamless border. All they have to do is convince an independent committee that their implementation stacks up and away they go.
So, if BoJo is free to deliver his Canada FTA and his Irish border under this plan, what is his problem? Of course, the problem is in the words "if Boris can deliver".
Boris does not feel he can deliver and wants to kill the deal to avoid that becoming patently clear. Thus, his journalism over the last few months has been as dishonest as at any time in his career. The only vassalage is the ERGs own vassalage to the bucket of lies they have peddled.
The irony is, that someone as detail driven as Theresa possibly could deliver a Boris Brexit from here.
Mr. Slackbladder, but also a plausible route to a second referendum and the perhaps strong possibility we end up remaining after all. Interesting to consider whether Leave or Remain MPs have the trickier choice.
The Cabinet will buckle. Maybe the odd resignation but the Conservative ministers now appear to be toothless wolves.
It's not as difficult choice as they are making out. If no deal must be avoided at all costs as some pretend then people should vote for this even if it means backing May. If it is a terrible deal then vote it down even If remain no deal or Corbyn are risked. I don't believe the tears of the anti no deal crowd, they prioritise trying to remain over avoiding no deal. Which is fine if they are more open about that prioritization rather than take a bad page from the leave campaign and pretend seeking remain has no risk.
An EU army is a necessary and good thing. Europe needs to take responsibility for it's own defence, it can't rely on Trumps America. In a multi polar world, it's needs to control the seas to it's south and deter Russian adventurism.
The UK should be a close partner with it and look to share defence procurement.
And how will the Govt's Chief Whip get a reliable reaction to how Opposition MPs will vote? I suspect he has a question mark against fifty Tory MPs - including a number of Cabinet members.
Surely the most crucial person is Raab. If the person tasked with getting a deal doesn't support it, then it crashes and burns.....
So the Remainers are pivoting from, 'its never going to happen, you're in fantasy land' to.... 'it's not that bad, what are you worried about' on the EU army.
Same as it ever was.....
I have always maintained it's inevitable, desirable and happening.
The UK clearly has no appetite or capability to provide full spectrum defence capabilities and an EU military alliance serves the needs of Global Britain (tm) far better than NATO. And who knows what shape that will be in after another 6 years of Trump.
Following the vote to leave the EU it fell to the government to negotiate the terms of our exit, constrained by what is practically possible (obviously) and by the need to avoid severe damage to the economy (obviously). This they have now done. I cannot see how anybody apart from the fanatics on either side (the Moggs, the Chukas) can in good faith vote it down.
Hopefully the 330-350 who do will all explain it. I'm sure some will do so in good faith. If they said nodealnis better than a bad deal that would be in good faith even if they are wrong.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
But...but...but...that doesn't get Labour an election until 2022! Having to concede that the Tory PM got the best deal in the circumstances is not a place that Labour MPs want to go - even if to prevent doing so they have to make the (feeble) argument that they wanted exactly these arrangments but in a Red wrapper, not a Blue one.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
No. May will make her Deal a vote of no confidence and if she loses that a manifesto commitment in a general election leading to Corbyn PM of a minority government anyway and we still get the same Deal anyway, just with a permanent Customs Union in writing this time.
She can't. What is and isn't a confidence motion is now a latter of law, not the whim of the PM.
Surely she can treat it like one even though it is not officially one though and act accordingly.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
But...but...but...that doesn't get Labour an election until 2022! Having to concede that the Tory PM got the best deal in the circumstances is not a place that Labour MPs want to go - even if to prevent doing so they have to make the (feeble) argument that they wanted exactly these arrangments but in a Red wrapper, not a Blue one.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
No. May will make her Deal a vote of no confidence and if she loses that a manifesto commitment in a general election leading to Corbyn PM of a minority government anyway and we still get the same Deal anyway, just with a permanent Customs Union in writing this time.
She can't. What is and isn't a confidence motion is now a latter of law, not the whim of the PM.
Surely she can treat it like one even though it is not officially one though and act accordingly.
Act accordingly would mean calling an actual vonc, I think. Psychologically I can see that threat being slightly less effective than the government falling automatically
Meanwhile if the fall in the price of oil is maintained there should be a drop in UK inflation.
So whilst the UK economy grew by 0.6% , the German economy shrunk by 0.2%, and apparently this is the most incompetent government in history.
It is only one quarter.
But it seemed clear to me that with disruptions to trade plus the willingness of German people to cut their spending that the German economy would struggle to grow.
So the Remainers are pivoting from, 'its never going to happen, you're in fantasy land' to.... 'it's not that bad, what are you worried about' on the EU army.
Same as it ever was.....
I have always maintained it's inevitable, desirable and happening.
The UK clearly has no appetite or capability to provide full spectrum defence capabilities and an EU military alliance serves the needs of Global Britain (tm) far better than NATO. And who knows what shape that will be in after another 6 years of Trump.
We have to decide who the enemy is, what their capabilities are and will be and what urge to fight we really have. Those are all political decisions but are tied into the small-scale military-industrial complex nature of British defence policy which has frequently been little more than never mind the quality, it's a British contractor (the poster child being Nimrod MRA4). Senior officers come across as being little more than siloed territory protectors. Is there a worse named project than a "strategic defence review"?
The wider question is where do our interests really differ from, for example, the French? They have rarely been shy about force projection (for better or worse). Do we really think that they would want to restrain themselves. Is any putative the EU military little more than a method to extract money from Germany? I suspect not.
Meanwhile if the fall in the price of oil is maintained there should be a drop in UK inflation.
So whilst the UK economy grew by 0.6% , the German economy shrunk by 0.2%, and apparently this is the most incompetent government in history.
It is only one quarter.
But it seemed clear to me that with disruptions to trade plus the willingness of German people to cut their spending that the German economy would struggle to grow.
Just imagine what would have been said if those figures were reveresed. Scott P would have had a retweeting frenzy.
That's what I mean. Fanatical brexiteers like Mogg can on principle vote against it because it is not ideologically pure. And remainiacs like Chuka can on principle vote against it because they wish to overturn the referendum and stay in the EU. But most everybody else who votes against will be doing so for nefarious reasons. In any case I think it will get through. I'm pretty certain it will actually. 1.7 on betfair that we leave on the due date is a great bet IMO.
Meanwhile if the fall in the price of oil is maintained there should be a drop in UK inflation.
So whilst the UK economy grew by 0.6% , the German economy shrunk by 0.2%, and apparently this is the most incompetent government in history.
It is only one quarter.
But it seemed clear to me that with disruptions to trade plus the willingness of German people to cut their spending that the German economy would struggle to grow.
The German economy is fine, a periodic slowdown is part of the normal business cycle, and it is not surprising that the drop in Chinese purchasing affects major manufacturing exporters.
Meanwhile if the fall in the price of oil is maintained there should be a drop in UK inflation.
So whilst the UK economy grew by 0.6% , the German economy shrunk by 0.2%, and apparently this is the most incompetent government in history.
It is only one quarter.
But it seemed clear to me that with disruptions to trade plus the willingness of German people to cut their spending that the German economy would struggle to grow.
The German economy is fine, a periodic slowdown is part of the normal business cycle, and it is not surprising that the drop in Chinese purchasing affects major manufacturing exporters.
Lol. There are no tanks in Baghdad.
The problem with the German economy IS that it is overeliant on export markets.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
But...but...but...that doesn't get Labour an election until 2022! Having to concede that the Tory PM got the best deal in the circumstances is not a place that Labour MPs want to go - even if to prevent doing so they have to make the (feeble) argument that they wanted exactly these arrangments but in a Red wrapper, not a Blue one.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
No. May will make her Deal a vote of no confidence and if she loses that a manifesto commitment in a general election leading to Corbyn PM of a minority government anyway and we still get the same Deal anyway, just wityh a permanent Customs Union in writing this time.
I would say it looks that way. GE here we come.
Althogh May can't make the Deal vote a strictly VoNC. She can only promise that if Deal falls she will immediately call for a GE vote or a confidence vote. Of course she might win the latter when DUP decide to keep her and send her back to Brussels.
The risk for the Leavers has always been BINO. That will be the test here. I expect some give by the EU on FOM - that's inevitable, even though it will present problems with some countries wanting the same. But the EU will expect the respective governments to resist that.
That leaves the Customs Union. I suspect the EU will want the transition period to be applied and aim to stop it ever being reached. The overall result would then be just the FOM changes which they'll hope to buy them some time. But time may not be on their side.
The EU army is inevitable, as is the over-arching parliament and full union of the countries. It may be decades away, but the EU ceased to be just a trading union years ago. It needs to become a single country to fully reach its target. Otherwise, it remains 27 or 28 or how ever many countries fighting their own corner.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
Corbyn has made clear he backs a permanent Customs Union for the whole UK, in reality Labour policy is May's deal in all but name
So to win Labour votes she needs to say it's a permanent CU, to win Tory votes she needs to say it's a time-limited CU. Good luck with that.
Public opinion and how it transmits to the politicians will decide this. My feeling is that it is going to cluster around supporting the deal.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
The cabinet will back this. This deal and text didn't come out of thin air. They will have been aware of the parameters of the negotiation for some time and be signed up to them. The Tory party, that's trickier.
They are a spineless bunch of useless troughers , of course they will sign up. Not a principle between them.
This is Sabine Weyand's ("who no-one has heard of" - William Hague) note.
“We should be in the best negotiation position for the future relationship. This requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship,” deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand said, according to the note seen by The Times newspaper.
“They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. UK wants a lot more from future relationship, so EU retains its leverage.”
"The binding clauses would mean the UK would be tied to EU rules on workers’ rights, environmental protections, and state aid while the so-called backstop applies – which everyone in Brussels believes it will for quite some time."
Meanwhile if the fall in the price of oil is maintained there should be a drop in UK inflation.
The population of Germany is flatlining despite the high levels of migration in recent years, and the average age is almost 50.
The average age in Germany has been brought down by the recent one million young immigrants but they are mostly young men so now there is an imbalance of gender.
Comments
I disagree about Boris, Davis & Mogg as being ahead of Raab; the first two have proven themselves unfit for high office, the third doesn't appear to want it. If this falls Raab will be crowned.
Which of course all proves that the foaming-dog-fever loons were correct when they insisted the EU dictate everything to us and we have no say. At least until yesterday when Boris announces that we DID have a say after all and would now lose it by doing what Boris said we needed to do to have a say.
Come on Tory cowards. If you truly believe the government to be the Enemy. That they are Traitors acting directly against the national interest. That they are giving away 1,000 years of sovereignty then DO SOMETHING. You cannot continue to take the Conservative Whip which associates you with these Quislings.
But they won't. Because as Mad Dog Tannen so aptly put it, they ain't nothin but a gutless yellow turd.
The actual content of the deal is probably only relevant to a very small subset of those involved and interested on here.
There were various semi-libellous rumours as to the cause of her resignation at the time, which perhaps it is best not to get into.
However, your central imputation is incorrect.
McVey is no longer involved in the McCann fund (& is very tight-lipped when asked about the McCanns).
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062620208320389120?s=21
A deal requires two parties and they can always say they tried.
If the commons really wants it, it needs to empower an executive that wishes to do so, they can't make a reluctant one do so.
Mr. Borough, that's entirely possible. The Commons will then be under huge pressure.
Hmm. May check the No Referendum odds to hedge my 6.5 on another happening.
Edited extra bit: still just 1.33. Too short.
Whats what the ERG want of course, but then it's what Corbyn of Chaos wants too.
Labour can have an election - but they have to own No Deal Brexit first.
Only one of these can be right, but they all look committed and combined are too many.
It appears Boeing has really mucked up wrt the LionAir crash in Indonesia last week.
In fact, if the rumours are true, then a corporate manslaughter charge (or nearest US equivalent) would seem fair. Not that that will happen ...
The Cabinet will buckle. Maybe the odd resignation but the Conservative ministers now appear to be toothless wolves.
Same as it ever was.....
High Office with No Deal will require a true Brexiteer, even if May lost her no confidence vote and her Deal vote only Boris, Mogg and Davis etc need apply. Raab will forever be tainted with having backed Chequers
We wouldn’t have any say in EU defence policy and neither they in ours. We’d decide when to cooperate.
(Whilst Napoleon was incarcerated there, we had four man-of-war on station, two sailing clockwise, two anticlockwise, to prevent any further attempts at his liberation. Not sure the Royal Navy has four vessels to spare for the task....)
Althogh May can't make the Deal vote a strictly VoNC. She can only promise that if Deal falls she will immediately call for a GE vote or a confidence vote. Of course she might win the latter when DUP decide to keep her and send her back to Brussels.
I am assuming I wont miss much as surely no one will resign before the actual Cabinet showdown?
I would be pretty confident that the following is the case:
1. There will be nothing to prevent any PM next March to go into trade deal negotiations and negotiate a Canada. This is because much of what is envisioned by Chequers will simply be noted as Britain's position in the non binding future trade statement.
2. There will be nothing to prevent delivery of the kind of border envisioned by the Brexiteers, if, as they say, it will deliver a seamless border. All they have to do is convince an independent committee that their implementation stacks up and away they go.
So, if BoJo is free to deliver his Canada FTA and his Irish border under this plan, what is his problem? Of course, the problem is in the words "if Boris can deliver".
Boris does not feel he can deliver and wants to kill the deal to avoid that becoming patently clear. Thus, his journalism over the last few months has been as dishonest as at any time in his career. The only vassalage is the ERGs own vassalage to the bucket of lies they have peddled.
The irony is, that someone as detail driven as Theresa possibly could deliver a Boris Brexit from here.
The UK should be a close partner with it and look to share defence procurement.
Surely the most crucial person is Raab. If the person tasked with getting a deal doesn't support it, then it crashes and burns.....
The UK clearly has no appetite or capability to provide full spectrum defence capabilities and an EU military alliance serves the needs of Global Britain (tm) far better than NATO. And who knows what shape that will be in after another 6 years of Trump.
' Germany's economy contracted in the third quarter of the year, dented by weaker exports, figures have shown.
Europe's largest economy shrank by 0.2% between July and September, as global trade disputes had a knock-on effect for Europe's largest economy.
It was the economy's first quarter-on-quarter fall since 2015. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46205805
The Japanese economy also shrank in Q3.
Meanwhile if the fall in the price of oil is maintained there should be a drop in UK inflation.
You could almost write it on the side of a bus.
By contrast the demand for Boris to posture about the world conducting trade deals is rather more limited.
But it seemed clear to me that with disruptions to trade plus the willingness of German people to cut their spending that the German economy would struggle to grow.
The wider question is where do our interests really differ from, for example, the French? They have rarely been shy about force projection (for better or worse). Do we really think that they would want to restrain themselves. Is any putative the EU military little more than a method to extract money from Germany? I suspect not.
That's what I mean. Fanatical brexiteers like Mogg can on principle vote against it because it is not ideologically pure. And remainiacs like Chuka can on principle vote against it because they wish to overturn the referendum and stay in the EU. But most everybody else who votes against will be doing so for nefarious reasons. In any case I think it will get through. I'm pretty certain it will actually. 1.7 on betfair that we leave on the due date is a great bet IMO.
The problem with the German economy IS that it is overeliant on export markets.
That leaves the Customs Union. I suspect the EU will want the transition period to be applied and aim to stop it ever being reached. The overall result would then be just the FOM changes which they'll hope to buy them some time. But time may not be on their side.
The EU army is inevitable, as is the over-arching parliament and full union of the countries. It may be decades away, but the EU ceased to be just a trading union years ago. It needs to become a single country to fully reach its target. Otherwise, it remains 27 or 28 or how ever many countries fighting their own corner.
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1062640151917142016?s=20
“We should be in the best negotiation position for the future relationship. This requires the customs union as the basis of the future relationship,” deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand said, according to the note seen by The Times newspaper.
“They must align their rules but the EU will retain all the controls. They apply the same rules. UK wants a lot more from future relationship, so EU retains its leverage.”
"The binding clauses would mean the UK would be tied to EU rules on workers’ rights, environmental protections, and state aid while the so-called backstop applies – which everyone in Brussels believes it will for quite some time."
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1062643947288322049?s=20