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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit deal is being put to the Cabinet one by one

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit deal is being put to the Cabinet one by one

So the brexit process moves a step forward with a broad agreement that Theresa May now has to sell to her cabinet, then her party, and then the House of Commons.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    The cabinet went in one by one

    Hurrah Hurrah
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    The cabinet went in one by one

    Hurrah Hurrah

    Very good :D
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1062462930401288193
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Did yes/no actually reach a cross-over yesterday? :o
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    Did yes/no actually reach a cross-over yesterday? :o

    The closest it got was Yes 49.6% No 49%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1062464560228114436
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062440275958816768

    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    William shows they do think it would be deal vs remain, and the answer to the second question seems to be yes as well in any case, if Rochdale's comments are anything to go by (not sure if a second ref supporter or not) on the basis that the deal is still bad and Labour shouldn't vote for it, which by default increases likelihood of no deal.

    I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    "Bring on BINO"

    Eh, it'll do. No doubt it will be hard to escape from that, but are no dealers and mythical dealers (of the 'we will just a get a better deal' crowd on left and right) really saying we won't have the strength to do so down the line, that they will give up if we BINO for now for economi reasons?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062440275958816768

    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    William shows they do think it would be deal vs remain, and the answer to the second question seems to be yes as well in any case, if Rochdale's comments are anything to go by (not sure if a second ref supporter or not) on the basis that the deal is still bad and Labour shouldn't vote for it, which by default increases likelihood of no deal.

    I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
    Agree with them or not, it doesn't seem unreasonable for PeoplesVote advocates to hope for a certain question in a hypothetical second referendum. If a second vote happens it will be because of some currently unforeseen future shift in politics/opinion, so who knows what the politics behind the question would be after an unforeseen shift like that.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    "All my lazy Brexit boasts / Are now high precision ghosts / And they're coming round the track / To haunt me..."

    "Now my backstop ain't so hot / But it's the only deal I've got"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    edited November 2018
    Quincel said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062440275958816768

    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really et yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    William shows they do think it would be deal vs remain, and the answer to the second question seems to be yes as well in any case, if Rochdale's comments are anything to go by (not sure if a second ref supporter or not) on the basis that the deal is still bad and Labour shouldn't vote for it, which by default increases likelihood of no deal.

    I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
    Agree with them or not, it doesn't seem unreasonable for PeoplesVote advocates to hope for a certain question in a hypothetical second referendum. If a second vote happens it will be because of some currently unforeseen future shift in politics/opinion, so who knows what the politics behind the question would be after an unforeseen shift like that.
    I've been in favour of a second vote, but in fact I do think it would be unreasonable not to recognise the risk that the question will not be as they desire. If the deal is bad it should be voted down, fully cognizant of the chance that it could end up causing no deal. People will work to avoid that, but its chances will have gone up by voting down the deal.

    Not acknowledging voting down the deal increases that risk and blindly, without certainty, promising no deal will not happen, is no different to those leavers who claimed there would be no difficulty or pain as a consequence of voting leave. Is following that example the lesson they want to take? The moral high ground would need to be sacrificed for starters.

    Hoping it will work out the way you want is unreasonable when you are playing for stakes this high. There are sound reasons to vote down a bad deal, but that is not one of them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/1062464560228114436

    Amusing.

    Should he not just ask Labour's six tests in his six questions though?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Would the EU really be interested in the UK remaining on a tiny majority with a blatentbl hostile Tory party?

    There needs to be a broad consensus on membership, it's can't go on for decades as a political football.

    It's just be a handbrake on everything they want to do.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,886
    Those remainers who even pretended to respect the vote now really have to decide to stick or twist. They are getting the BINO that they always wanted but they aspire to a second vote where people would obviously think like them and all of their friends. If they don’t back May they risk the fall of their government and the U.K. crashing out on a no deal Brexit. If they do back her what on earth are they going to say at the next soirée ?

    It’s a tough one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    The betting market is wrong.

    Dig out your party posters popcorn lovers, a General Election is almost upon us.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062468507147923456
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    And the public perception will be set, as it was after Chequers was announced. No way Labour back it under those circumstances. Why would they believe they will be punished if they vote against for poor reasons when the public perception is likely to be negative of the deal? And when the Tories probably take a hit in the next set of polls as UKIP and ERGers protest (whether or not they would do so in a GE being less clear)?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,886
    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062440275958816768

    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    William shows they do think it would be deal vs remain, and the answer to the second question seems to be yes as well in any case, if Rochdale's comments are anything to go by (not sure if a second ref supporter or not) on the basis that the deal is still bad and Labour shouldn't vote for it, which by default increases likelihood of no deal.

    I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
    I remain at heart a Remainer (or perhaps a re-joiner) but I am not convinced public opinion has swayed significantly towards Remain; I suspect a Deal v Remain vote would see Deal convincingly win (which might be useful to silence the ERG headbangers).

    Alternatively, a narrow Remain win would leave many Leave voters feeling cheated, so even though I wish we'd Remained, I am not convinced it would be a good outcome from where we are today.

    A BINO deal seems like the best solution. It needs to be spun by TMay as "we said we would leave and we have."
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,823
    TMays best chance of getting this through the Commons is to go full-nuclear of the ERG. If the deal fails to clear the Commons, she’ll have no choice but to table legislation for a second referendum.

    That would focus minds somewhat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.

    Is the end in sight soon?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    DavidL said:

    Those remainers who even pretended to respect the vote now really have to decide to stick or twist. They are getting the BINO that they always wanted but they aspire to a second vote where people would obviously think like them and all of their friends. If they don’t back May they risk the fall of their government and the U.K. crashing out on a no deal Brexit. If they do back her what on earth are they going to say at the next soirée ?

    It’s a tough one.

    It’s not Remainers who are worrying.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062468858634797058
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    And no one who has seen it has attacked it. You may find this works out very differently
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    DavidL said:

    Those remainers who even pretended to respect the vote now really have to decide to stick or twist. They are getting the BINO that they always wanted but they aspire to a second vote where people would obviously think like them and all of their friends. If they don’t back May they risk the fall of their government and the U.K. crashing out on a no deal Brexit. If they do back her what on earth are they going to say at the next soirée ?

    It’s a tough one.

    They'll say they took a chance on full on remain, and be consoled if it failed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1062469183940845573
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    This is what surprises me. The Govt is so bad at communications, they should have the May sycophant's out in force to defend it. They have left the airwaves free for the anti's to say what they want against it.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Indeed. It's quite bizarre that they are keeping it a secret - how on earth can they convince people it's a good deal if no one knows what's in it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    And no one who has seen it has attacked it. You may find this works out very differently
    The public are going to see it and read it? and thus take a kinder view than those offering easy solutions from left and right? And more importantly MPs who have other considerations, like wanting a GE or referendum, will change position because it is such a jolly good deal after all?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.

    Is the end in sight soon?
    I'm trying to work out if the Dems have a chance in Florida. If the ballots as present are recounted then no, but there might be extra ones out there. The whole situation is ludicrous.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    anothernick said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Indeed. It's quite bizarre that they are keeping it a secret - how on earth can they convince people it's a good deal if no one knows what's in it?
    I'm guessing because Cabinet has to agree before it becomes the official position.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    numbertwelve said:

    TMays best chance of getting this through the Commons is to go full-nuclear of the ERG. If the deal fails to clear the Commons, she’ll have no choice but to table legislation for a second referendum.

    That would focus minds somewhat.

    Er, that does sound like a good strategy actually... so not much chance Theresa will adopt it :disappointed:
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Yet she is still PM
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Bromptonaut said:

    DavidL said:

    Those remainers who even pretended to respect the vote now really have to decide to stick or twist. They are getting the BINO that they always wanted but they aspire to a second vote where people would obviously think like them and all of their friends. If they don’t back May they risk the fall of their government and the U.K. crashing out on a no deal Brexit. If they do back her what on earth are they going to say at the next soirée ?

    It’s a tough one.

    It’s not Remainers who are worrying.
    I love these assertive posts. I'm not worried at all - just interested. There's nothing to worry about, neh? As I've said before, UK governance processes are working well, even if the government isn't. If people want the comfort blanket of 'it's just BINO', that's fine, it was a close result after all.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062440275958816768

    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    William shows they do think it would be deal vs remain, and the answer to the second question seems to be yes as well in any case, if Rochdale's comments are anything to go by (not sure if a second ref supporter or not) on the basis that the deal is still bad and Labour shouldn't vote for it, which by default increases likelihood of no deal.

    I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
    I remain at heart a Remainer (or perhaps a re-joiner) but I am not convinced public opinion has swayed significantly towards Remain; I suspect a Deal v Remain vote would see Deal convincingly win (which might be useful to silence the ERG headbangers).

    Alternatively, a narrow Remain win would leave many Leave voters feeling cheated, so even though I wish we'd Remained, I am not convinced it would be a good outcome from where we are today.

    A BINO deal seems like the best solution. It needs to be spun by TMay as "we said we would leave and we have."
    A second referendum is only of use if it is conclusive, preferably at much more than a 60-40 split either way. I see no evidence one would be, and therefore one would sadly risk making things worse.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062470005198110720
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Is there no PR operation in No 10 at all? How can they be so crap at presenting things in a positive light?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Bromptonaut said:

    DavidL said:

    Those remainers who even pretended to respect the vote now really have to decide to stick or twist. They are getting the BINO that they always wanted but they aspire to a second vote where people would obviously think like them and all of their friends. If they don’t back May they risk the fall of their government and the U.K. crashing out on a no deal Brexit. If they do back her what on earth are they going to say at the next soirée ?

    It’s a tough one.

    It’s not Remainers who are worrying.
    It's not those worrying who might accidentally cause no deal, since they never had the votes to positively cause it to occur. Indeed, the hope that remain could happen might end up causing it instead.

    That's not to say they should not go for it if they really think it is the best option, and it's chances are higher now than at any other time, but a deal is apparently available, and voting it down does mean no deal opens back up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    anothernick said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Indeed. It's quite bizarre that they are keeping it a secret - how on earth can they convince people it's a good deal if no one knows what's in it?
    After cabinet tomorrow everyone will know the detail as it is released here and throughout Europe simultaneously, according to Sky's Mark Stone
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    And no one who has seen it has attacked it. You may find this works out very differently
    NDA?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,886
    Bromptonaut said:

    DavidL said:

    Those remainers who even pretended to respect the vote now really have to decide to stick or twist. They are getting the BINO that they always wanted but they aspire to a second vote where people would obviously think like them and all of their friends. If they don’t back May they risk the fall of their government and the U.K. crashing out on a no deal Brexit. If they do back her what on earth are they going to say at the next soirée ?

    It’s a tough one.

    It’s not Remainers who are worrying.
    In fairness the Leavers have the same problem in reverse. Do they risk a second referendum and losing their chance to leave or do they back a deal that turns their stomach? The more pragmatic, like me, will take the rotten deal but the fanatics don’t know what to do.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    How can the DUP complain about trade barriers between GB and NI when it's just minor goods regulation type stuff, when they have fully supported a separate law making assembly in Northern Ireland?

    It's like complaining about your neighbour putting up an estate agent sign when you have a tacky Vegas Elvis wedding chapel on the other side.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.

    The whips need to go to work on some of those, can't see enough labour rebels coming out the woodwork to offset that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062470005198110720

    McVey and Mordaunt she can surely live without if the big five are backing it. Sack them (McVey and Mordaunt) and get some others who will support it in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062440275958816768

    What the **** does that even mean?
    The Guardian has got a good summary and it actually seems a good compromise
    Do you have a link to that Big_G?
    I read it at Guardian on line if that helps
    Not really - I have been looking at the Guardian on-line and can't find anything I recognise as a summary of the agreement. Then again, given the Cabinet are having to read it in a secure reading room, maybe it's a bit optimistic to expect the details to be out on the internet yet?
    Robd gives the link below
    I am struggling to see what those pushing for a 2nd Ref have to gain now - it's not going to be a vote for Deal versus Remain, and do those promoting a 2nd Ref want to pitch this deal against no Deal?

    William shows they do think it would be deal vs remain, and the answer to the second question seems to be yes as well in any case, if Rochdale's comments are anything to go by (not sure if a second ref supporter or not) on the basis that the deal is still bad and Labour shouldn't vote for it, which by default increases likelihood of no deal.

    I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
    A BINO deal seems like the best solution. It needs to be spun by TMay as "we said we would leave and we have."
    You might be surprised that I recall one SeanT among others saying very similar things right after the referendum re a soft leave being the best option.

    Changes like this are hard, and things could be made harder over time even if that too would be hard. But push for too much and you might get nothing.

    Of course, if Boris and co think a bad brexit is worse than no brexit they can support a referendum to remain after all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    So. While all the focus is on this deal passing our Parliament, does anyone know what the odds are of an EU 27 Parliament turning it down?
    Does anyone have any ideas?
    Important for betting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,886
    currystar said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Yet she is still PM
    There’s a more than negligible chance she will not be so by the weekend.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Surely sacking McVey is a win for the Gov't. Her and her skin crawling other half that caused the FOBT delay.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.

    The whips need to go to work on some of those, can't see enough labour rebels coming out the woodwork to offset that.
    Don't forget the X number of Remainer Tories. Greening was not holding back earlier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    DavidL said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    DavidL said:

    Those remainers who even pretended to respect the vote now really have to decide to stick or twist. They are getting the BINO that they always wanted but they aspire to a second vote where people would obviously think like them and all of their friends. If they don’t back May they risk the fall of their government and the U.K. crashing out on a no deal Brexit. If they do back her what on earth are they going to say at the next soirée ?

    It’s a tough one.

    It’s not Remainers who are worrying.
    In fairness the Leavers have the same problem in reverse. Do they risk a second referendum and losing their chance to leave or do they back a deal that turns their stomach? The more pragmatic, like me, will take the rotten deal but the fanatics don’t know what to do.
    It's not as difficult a choice as they are making out. If the deal is bad, worse than the status quo some have called it, vote it down even if the consequences are Corbyn or remain. That would not be easy for them, I am sure, but if they feel this strongly about it, if they believe the national interest is not just not served by this but actively harmed, that is no choice at all.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Indeed. It's quite bizarre that they are keeping it a secret - how on earth can they convince people it's a good deal if no one knows what's in it?
    After cabinet tomorrow everyone will know the detail as it is released here and throughout Europe simultaneously, according to Sky's Mark Stone
    That is the way to do it and I am sure that is what No 10 and the EU agreed so that each EU Governement can read it before the 24 hour press go mad on it. Its great that they are not pandering to the political press bubble and are doing things respectively and properly. And again how anyone can comment on a deal that they have not read with such Authority is mind boggling.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    DavidL said:

    currystar said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Yet she is still PM
    There’s a more than negligible chance she will not be so by the weekend.
    How many times has that been said in the past 2 years.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    dixiedean said:

    So. While all the focus is on this deal passing our Parliament, does anyone know what the odds are of an EU 27 Parliament turning it down?
    Does anyone have any ideas?
    Important for betting.

    A quick look up of A50 indicates to me that the WA only needs to pass a QMV vote of the Council and a vote of the European Parliament. Walloonia does not get a say.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1062469183940845573

    Good on him for not hemming and hawing about it. Even if he's wrong in the end at least he took a view.

    He's right though. I can, sort of, see a situation where its refused, people try something else, and return to it and reluctantly vote it through, but there's too many people on both sides who have no incentive to wave it through on the first try as they chance their arm at hard leave/remain.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    MikeSmithson said:

    RobD said:

    Did yes/no actually reach a cross-over yesterday? :o

    The closest it got was Yes 49.6% No 49%
    Look..I am hearing that cabinet were consulted one by one before today....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,886
    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Is there no PR operation in No 10 at all? How can they be so crap at presenting things in a positive light?
    I think it’s what May learned in the Home Office. When in doubt say nothing. Once you’re sure say even less. It worked pretty well there. In No 10, not so much.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1062469183940845573

    So, GE then.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.

    The whips need to go to work on some of those, can't see enough labour rebels coming out the woodwork to offset that.
    Don't forget the X number of Remainer Tories. Greening was not holding back earlier.
    Cnuts the lot of them.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Has anybody seen the obvious here..


    Mcvey and Davies...

    FOBT and Brexit?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    timmo said:

    Has anybody seen the obvious here..


    Mcvey and Davies...

    FOBT and Brexit?

    Yes - some time ago
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    I was told by a Labour MP at the weekend that about 12 of his colleagues were thought to be possible supporters of a May deal. Nowhere near enough to offset the ERG, DUP and Tory Remainers. And if the deal looks like it's a goner fewer Labour MPs would be tempted to risk the wrath of their party by supporting it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    edited November 2018
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1062469183940845573

    So, GE then.
    Maybe. I think a GE post a deal being approved is more likely than without a deal, since one of the major problems for the Tories would that half their candidates would be dealers and the others no dealers, so how to fight under the same manifesto?
    anothernick said:

    I was told by a Labour MP at the weekend that about 12 of his colleagues were thought to be possible supporters of a May deal. Nowhere near enough to offset the ERG, DUP and Tory Remainers. And if the deal looks like it's a goner fewer Labour MPs would be tempted to risk the wrath of their party by supporting it.

    Indeed so. Why bother when it will make no difference?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    timmo said:

    Has anybody seen the obvious here..


    Mcvey and Davies...

    FOBT and Brexit?

    They're going in for parliament's most charming couple award ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    currystar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Indeed. It's quite bizarre that they are keeping it a secret - how on earth can they convince people it's a good deal if no one knows what's in it?
    After cabinet tomorrow everyone will know the detail as it is released here and throughout Europe simultaneously, according to Sky's Mark Stone
    That is the way to do it and I am sure that is what No 10 and the EU agreed so that each EU Governement can read it before the 24 hour press go mad on it. Its great that they are not pandering to the political press bubble and are doing things respectively and properly. And again how anyone can comment on a deal that they have not read with such Authority is mind boggling.
    Quite right. Boris and Rees-Mogg's earlier flatulence, before they even knew what the deal contained, just made them sound borderline neurotic. Theresa played the rope-a-dope trick on them: let them burn themselves out in the early rounds and then KO.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Is there no PR operation in No 10 at all? How can they be so crap at presenting things in a positive light?
    I think it’s what May learned in the Home Office. When in doubt say nothing. Once you’re sure say even less. It worked pretty well there. In No 10, not so much.
    I think Timothy and Hill at the Home Office must be considered the best SPAD's ever for covering up the inadequacies on Mrs May for 6 years. Outstanding job.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018
    Express supporting:

    image
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    rpjs said:

    dixiedean said:

    So. While all the focus is on this deal passing our Parliament, does anyone know what the odds are of an EU 27 Parliament turning it down?
    Does anyone have any ideas?
    Important for betting.

    A quick look up of A50 indicates to me that the WA only needs to pass a QMV vote of the Council and a vote of the European Parliament. Walloonia does not get a say.
    Ah cheers for that.
    QMV will be easy enough. How many awkward squad in the EU Parliament? Farage for one...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Stark_Dawning said:

    currystar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Indeed. It's quite bizarre that they are keeping it a secret - how on earth can they convince people it's a good deal if no one knows what's in it?
    After cabinet tomorrow everyone will know the detail as it is released here and throughout Europe simultaneously, according to Sky's Mark Stone
    That is the way to do it and I am sure that is what No 10 and the EU agreed so that each EU Governement can read it before the 24 hour press go mad on it. Its great that they are not pandering to the political press bubble and are doing things respectively and properly. And again how anyone can comment on a deal that they have not read with such Authority is mind boggling.
    Quite right. Boris and Rees-Mogg's earlier flatulence, before they even knew what the deal contained, just made them sound borderline neurotic. Theresa played the rope-a-dope trick on them: let them burn themselves out in the early rounds and then KO.
    Not to leavers. Boris hit every leaver button possible plus a couple of new ones.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    Has anybody seen the obvious here..


    Mcvey and Davies...

    FOBT and Brexit?

    They're going in for parliament's most charming couple award ?
    Jenkyns and Lopresti are unassailable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    anothernick said:

    I was told by a Labour MP at the weekend that about 12 of his colleagues were thought to be possible supporters of a May deal. Nowhere near enough to offset the ERG, DUP and Tory Remainers. And if the deal looks like it's a goner fewer Labour MPs would be tempted to risk the wrath of their party by supporting it.

    It is going to take the whipping operation of all time to get this through HoC.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,886
    ralphmalph said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    anothernick said:

    The airwaves are full of people from all sides saying the deal is crap. No one from the government is advocating it. By the time it gets to the Commons, if it gets there, it will have been comprehensively rubbished.

    It’s a mistake that May makes time after time. There is no teaching her.
    Is there no PR operation in No 10 at all? How can they be so crap at presenting things in a positive light?
    I think it’s what May learned in the Home Office. When in doubt say nothing. Once you’re sure say even less. It worked pretty well there. In No 10, not so much.
    I think Timothy and Hill at the Home Office must be considered the best SPAD's ever for covering up the inadequacies on Mrs May for 6 years. Outstanding job.
    No 10 requires a different skill set. It requires an ability to lead. May has shown almost no aptitude for that at all.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Benpointer said:

    Express supporting:

    image

    I think that is reflective of a general mood of somehow we must resolve this thing. I'm not sure that the deal won't pass Parliament after all. There will be a huge amount of pressure to achieve some certainty.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.

    Is the end in sight soon?
    I'm trying to work out if the Dems have a chance in Florida. If the ballots as present are recounted then no, but there might be extra ones out there. The whole situation is ludicrous.
    I don't see how the Dems win bar a massive trove in Broward beyond discovered.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    dixiedean said:

    rpjs said:

    dixiedean said:

    So. While all the focus is on this deal passing our Parliament, does anyone know what the odds are of an EU 27 Parliament turning it down?
    Does anyone have any ideas?
    Important for betting.

    A quick look up of A50 indicates to me that the WA only needs to pass a QMV vote of the Council and a vote of the European Parliament. Walloonia does not get a say.
    Ah cheers for that.
    QMV will be easy enough. How many awkward squad in the EU Parliament? Farage for one...
    I think it's the post-transition period future relationship agreement that has to be agreed by every member state and their dogquasi-sovereign subdivisions.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062470005198110720

    McVey and Mordaunt she can surely live without if the big five are backing it. Sack them (McVey and Mordaunt) and get some others who will support it in.

    Raab and Gove are the smart Leavers who can actually practically see when they have won.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.

    Is the end in sight soon?
    I'm trying to work out if the Dems have a chance in Florida. If the ballots as present are recounted then no, but there might be extra ones out there. The whole situation is ludicrous.
    I don't see how the Dems win bar a massive trove in Broward beyond discovered.
    I think it depends on whether they do a hand recount, and if so how crappy the machines are.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.

    Is the end in sight soon?
    I'm trying to work out if the Dems have a chance in Florida. If the ballots as present are recounted then no, but there might be extra ones out there. The whole situation is ludicrous.
    I don't see how the Dems win bar a massive trove in Broward beyond discovered.
    Unless there was an error with (some of) the machines that meant the Senate votes in the bottom lefthand corner of the cvoting sheet was consistently missed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Jonathan said:

    So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.

    Not to mention Greening, Johnson Minor, possibly Grieve and several others.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    edited November 2018
    rottenborough said:

    anothernick said:

    I was told by a Labour MP at the weekend that about 12 of his colleagues were thought to be possible supporters of a May deal. Nowhere near enough to offset the ERG, DUP and Tory Remainers. And if the deal looks like it's a goner fewer Labour MPs would be tempted to risk the wrath of their party by supporting it.

    It is going to take the whipping operation of all time to get this through HoC.
    I will applaud to the rafters an amazing political achievement (good deal or not) if that happens. For me it comes down to how hard it is proving just to get the Cabinet on board, her closest political allies. If that lot take this much effort to convince then it will be harder to get the rest of the party on board (not the general ones who will go with the flow, but the remainer and leaver rebels who are at least potentially amenable) and then even harder than that again to get Labour rebels on board.

    The public I suspect will dislike it intensely but would be easier to persuade it is the best that can be managed. But the MPs are playing a different game. Jonathan points out the simple math at play here. Even were it only the usual awkward crowd the lack of majority is in to the double digits, perhaps significantly so.

    And happy birthday tomorrow to Prince Charles I see.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Benpointer said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.

    Is the end in sight soon?
    I'm trying to work out if the Dems have a chance in Florida. If the ballots as present are recounted then no, but there might be extra ones out there. The whole situation is ludicrous.
    I don't see how the Dems win bar a massive trove in Broward beyond discovered.
    Unless there was an error with (some of) the machines that meant the Senate votes in the bottom lefthand corner of the cvoting sheet was consistently missed.
    That appears to be what may have happened. I'm unclear though as to whether the issue was that the ballot was poorly designed so that the voters missed the race on it, or that the machines failed to scan it.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rpjs said:

    Benpointer said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair should probably not rely on CNN's projections for US results. They've had to unsettle Florida once and California-21 is most likely going to edn up Dem I think.

    Is the end in sight soon?
    I'm trying to work out if the Dems have a chance in Florida. If the ballots as present are recounted then no, but there might be extra ones out there. The whole situation is ludicrous.
    I don't see how the Dems win bar a massive trove in Broward beyond discovered.
    Unless there was an error with (some of) the machines that meant the Senate votes in the bottom lefthand corner of the cvoting sheet was consistently missed.
    That appears to be what may have happened. I'm unclear though as to whether the issue was that the ballot was poorly designed so that the voters missed the race on it, or that the machines failed to scan it.
    Here in NY whenever there are propositions on the ballot, they're usually on the back so there's always lots of publicity about "don't forget to turn your ballot paper over".
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I think May is reliant on Labour not whipping strongly against the deal.

    One of the rules of strategy is never relying on your opponent to do or not do something...
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    rottenborough said:

    anothernick said:

    I was told by a Labour MP at the weekend that about 12 of his colleagues were thought to be possible supporters of a May deal. Nowhere near enough to offset the ERG, DUP and Tory Remainers. And if the deal looks like it's a goner fewer Labour MPs would be tempted to risk the wrath of their party by supporting it.

    It is going to take the whipping operation of all time to get this through HoC.
    It is finely balanced and depends how public opinion settles. If the Labour leadership are seen as risking the future of the country for party gain they will be destroyed. In the balance is the future of both main parties as well the wellbeing of the country.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Theo said:

    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062470005198110720

    McVey and Mordaunt she can surely live without if the big five are backing it. Sack them (McVey and Mordaunt) and get some others who will support it in.

    Raab and Gove are the smart Leavers who can actually practically see when they have won.
    They have all the time they need after this deal is done to push for a harder Brexit, if they think they can get the support for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I think May is reliant on Labour not whipping strongly against the deal.

    One of the rules of strategy is never relying on your opponent to do or not do something...

    She's not relying on it by choice. If she had an easier route I'm sure she'd have taken it.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.

    The whips need to go to work on some of those, can't see enough labour rebels coming out the woodwork to offset that.
    Don't forget the X number of Remainer Tories. Greening was not holding back earlier.
    Yeah, I feel like the People's Vote crowd have *finally* realised they need to start focussing minds on voting down any possible deal, in the past two or three weeks. I think before that they were so distracted by the joy of finding a way to get young people pissed off at Corbyn that they took their eye off the ball. It remains to be seen whether it's too little too late.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018
    Daily Mail: "May strikes historic Brexit deal"

    image
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Jonathan said:

    So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.

    As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.

    It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Stereotomy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.

    The whips need to go to work on some of those, can't see enough labour rebels coming out the woodwork to offset that.
    Don't forget the X number of Remainer Tories. Greening was not holding back earlier.
    Yeah, I feel like the People's Vote crowd have *finally* realised they need to start focussing minds on voting down any possible deal, in the past two or three weeks. I think before that they were so distracted by the joy of finding a way to get young people pissed off at Corbyn that they took their eye off the ball. It remains to be seen whether it's too little too late.
    They will be seen as reckless gamblers by many. The mirror image of ERG.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    A few thoughts on the day:

    1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.

    2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.

    3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Grieve, JRM and Ummuna all opposed on Newsnight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    edited November 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    A few thoughts on the day:

    1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.

    2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.

    3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.

    How does she get parliament to agree a set of referendum options? Will Corbyn accept both remain and no deal being on there?
    dixiedean said:

    Grieve, JRM and Ummuna all opposed on Newsnight.

    It is so dead. Ultra remainers and Ultra leavers will be going through the lobby together against it.

    It's probably worth signing off for however long until parliament votes to wait for it to be officially killed off.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Benpointer said:

    Express supporting:

    image

    It’s happening guys. Apparently some morning professor was on five live this morning recommending people stock pile for up to 12 months of disruption.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    JRM now saying that May going may have to happen. Not sure he can carry on separating the person from the policy.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    4. If it’s so utterly unacceptable for Ulster to have even the slightest difference with the mainland when it comes to goods regulation, then surely we can’t possibly countenance them having different rules on abortion and gay marriage. We might as well abolish Stormont and NI as a separate jurisdiction.

    The Loyalists are loyal to no-one but themselves. This is a lesson the Tory Party should never forget.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    rottenborough said:

    JRM now saying that May going may have to happen. Not sure he can carry on separating the person from the policy.

    He was being an idiot or a liar by doing so in the first place, as was any other MP doing so.
This discussion has been closed.