Theresa May pleads with MPs to act "in the national interest". Great. No doubt whatever any individual MP does, they will consider themselves acting in the national interest
Even if most of the Cabinet agree, Conservative backbenchers have the power to call an election for a new leader in order to change the policy.
Cabinet members who do not resign this evening will not then have the credibility to stand in the forthcoming Conservative leadership election against May.
It's Methadone Brexit and a high dose one at that with some Benzos thrown in. Arguably that's the only sane way to do Brexit if you are insane enough to do Brexit. But it's not what was sold to voters and ensures we've years if this still to come.
So:
As of 1/4/19 we haven't actually left anything (except the EUelection/ political/admin representation ).
In 12/2021 GB may, if the EU agrees, leaves the SM.
Is that it?
We leave the single market under the backstop. You are confused.
1)You seem remarkably certain: You've seen the final 500page document? 2) Leaving the backstop is under the control of the EU and so, hence, is leaving the SM.
If we get to be in the SM without FoM then May has pulled off the deal of the century.
I think it’s more likely you’ve misunderstood...
Not quite sure if that comment is for me - I hadn't mentioned FoM separately as its an integral part of the SM.
It's Methadone Brexit and a high dose one at that with some Benzos thrown in. Arguably that's the only sane way to do Brexit if you are insane enough to do Brexit. But it's not what was sold to voters and ensures we've years if this still to come.
So:
As of 1/4/19 we haven't actually left anything (except the EUelection/ political/admin representation ).
In 12/2021 GB may, if the EU agrees, leaves the SM.
Is that it?
We leave the single market under the backstop. You are confused.
1)You seem remarkably certain: You've seen the final 500page document? 2) Leaving the backstop is under the control of the EU and so, hence, is leaving the SM.
If we get to be in the SM without FoM then May has pulled off the deal of the century.
I think it’s more likely you’ve misunderstood...
Not quite sure if that comment is for me - I hadn't mentioned FoM separately as its an integral part of the SM.
No but lots of people are saying we have controls on immigration.
It's Methadone Brexit and a high dose one at that with some Benzos thrown in. Arguably that's the only sane way to do Brexit if you are insane enough to do Brexit. But it's not what was sold to voters and ensures we've years if this still to come.
So:
As of 1/4/19 we haven't actually left anything (except the EUelection/ political/admin representation ).
In 12/2021 GB may, if the EU agrees, leaves the SM.
Is that it?
We leave the single market under the backstop. You are confused.
1)You seem remarkably certain: You've seen the final 500page document? 2) Leaving the backstop is under the control of the EU and so, hence, is leaving the SM.
If we get to be in the SM without FoM then May has pulled off the deal of the century.
I think it’s more likely you’ve misunderstood...
Not quite sure if that comment is for me - I hadn't mentioned FoM separately as its an integral part of the SM.
No but lots of people are saying we have controls on immigration.
Not me mate.
I fought the entire 2016Ref campaign on EU=Unlimited Mass Immigration.
And I've seen nothing since to indicate anything has, or will, change.
It's Methadone Brexit and a high dose one at that with some Benzos thrown in. Arguably that's the only sane way to do Brexit if you are insane enough to do Brexit. But it's not what was sold to voters and ensures we've years if this still to come.
So:
As of 1/4/19 we haven't actually left anything (except the EUelection/ political/admin representation ).
In 12/2021 GB may, if the EU agrees, leaves the SM.
Is that it?
We leave the single market under the backstop. You are confused.
1)You seem remarkably certain: You've seen the final 500page document? 2) Leaving the backstop is under the control of the EU and so, hence, is leaving the SM.
If we get to be in the SM without FoM then May has pulled off the deal of the century.
I think it’s more likely you’ve misunderstood...
Not quite sure if that comment is for me - I hadn't mentioned FoM separately as its an integral part of the SM.
No but lots of people are saying we have controls on immigration.
Not me mate.
I fought the entire 2016Ref campaign on EU=Unlimited Mass Immigration.
And I've seen nothing since to indicate anything has, or will, change.
Let’s wait and see shall we? Neither of us has seen the agreement
"On Tuesday's Newsnight, the leading Brexiteer was asked if he has submitted a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.
He said: 'I haven’t written to Sir Graham Brady' (the chairman of the 1922 committee) and that he would not do so 'in the next 24hours'.
But he added: 'There comes a point at which the policy and the individual become so intimately connected that it would be very hard to carry on promoting the person who is promoting this policy.'"
If JRM and the leaders of the ERG simultaneously press the button, should get 48 in one go.
With the DUP's 'S&C is for the Tory party not MrsMay" this might actually be it.
Plenty of time for 3month leadership contest too. Just in time for the new leader to cut the tape to open Independent Britain.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
Neville Chamberlain was very good indeed as CoE. It was after he became PM that he went off a bit.
History is beginning to treat him significantly more kindly now we’ve moved past the Churchill-influenced historiography. In short, now it’s history not politics.
If this deal gets through Parliament we will leave the EU on 29th March 2019. At that point the outcome of the referendum will have been honoured. I think we underestimate the importance of this. It will change the entire political context within which the FTA talks take place on the UK side.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
Neville Chamberlain was very good indeed as CoE. It was after he became PM that he went off a bit.
History is beginning to treat him significantly more kindly now we’ve moved past the Churchill-influenced historiography. In short, now it’s history not politics.
It really, really isn't. In fact if anything it's veering beyond what Churchill wrote and endorsing Michael Foot's judgements.
I think the panel would decide if the alternative arrangement to the customs union will still prevent the NI specific backstop kicking in. The CU is supposedly temporary. I doubt anyone really believes that
Having backed May to go by the end of the year at 15/1 last week, I was pleased to lay this off at about 9/2 this morning.
The straws in the wind are that the cabinet will support it, including all its leading Brexiteers, Cox has given it his ok, and JRM is keeping his powder dry for another day.
If this deal gets through Parliament we will leave the EU on 29th March 2019. At that point the outcome of the referendum will have been honoured. I think we underestimate the importance of this. It will change the entire political context within which the FTA talks take place on the UK side.
True; it is probably at that point, or very shortly afterwards, that the clamour for a ‘People’s Vote” will turn into straightforward Rejoin. Especially if trade begins to get disrupted.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Having backed May to go by the end of the year at 15/1 last week, I was pleased to lay this off at about 9/2 this morning.
The straws in the wind are that the cabinet will support it, including all its leading Brexiteers, Cox has given it his ok, and JRM is keeping his powder dry for another day.
I think she’ll survive the year.
The situation is as fragile as an Australian batting lineup.
But, as with an Australian batting lineup with their big guns incapacitated one way or another, neither main party has the power to do anything to make things better.
Barnier may now be key. If he says 'this deal or no deal' at the right moment that may split the Tories but terrify Labour into supporting it. If he keeps schtum and Labour are foolish enough to vote it down in the hope of an election, the country's screwed and they will be massacred.
I really, really hope they see sense. That would be the best tenner I ever spent.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
This deal means Brexit negotiations will continue for years. That’s not going to please anyone who’s bored sick of it.
This is why Corbyn isn't fit to run a village post office: http://www.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1062456175797682177 OK, Jeremy (and in fairness, the others, one of whom is Rees-Mogg on steroids, one of whom is an irrelevance and one of whom is increasingly giving the impression of senility). Just to point out a couple of minor issues:
1) You can't amend draft treaties without the agreement of the other side. It's now clear that would not be forthcoming.
2) You have 'proposed alternatives' at all points. So have the ERG. But ultimately they can't be implemented without the agreement of all signatories. Again, such agreement would not be forthcoming.
3) Parliament is sovereign. So it could choose to crash out, which is the alternative. But is that really what you want?
This is of course one reason why treaties were part of the Royal Prerogative until the Supreme Court went mad with self-importance and arbitrarily decided otherwise. Gina Miller's case has been an utter fiasco. In a desperate bid to keep us in the EU, her actions have pushed us to the brink of a crashout.
Having backed May to go by the end of the year at 15/1 last week, I was pleased to lay this off at about 9/2 this morning.
The straws in the wind are that the cabinet will support it, including all its leading Brexiteers, Cox has given it his ok, and JRM is keeping his powder dry for another day.
I think she’ll survive the year.
The situation is as fragile as an Australian batting lineup.
But, as with an Australian batting lineup with their big guns incapacitated one way or another, neither main party has the power to do anything to make things better.
Barnier may now be key. If he says 'this deal or no deal' at the right moment that may split the Tories but terrify Labour into supporting it. If he keeps schtum and Labour are foolish enough to vote it down in the hope of an election, the country's screwed and they will be massacred.
I really, really hope they see sense. That would be the best tenner I ever spent.
My reading of this is that there’ll be some almighty moans and sledging of it, but it will get through.
It might be very close in the UK Parliament, or even require two attempts, but that it will pass.
I won’t be commenting on what I think of it until I’ve read it. In full.
Having backed May to go by the end of the year at 15/1 last week, I was pleased to lay this off at about 9/2 this morning.
The straws in the wind are that the cabinet will support it, including all its leading Brexiteers, Cox has given it his ok, and JRM is keeping his powder dry for another day.
I think she’ll survive the year.
I was on the other side of this bet from the beginning. It is always easier to talk about acting to get rid of a PM than to actually do it. The job currently is one no sane person should want (OK so that doesn't rule out many potential contenders tbf). And the Tories won't really feel the need to switch to a better campaigner until an election is looming.
Having backed May to go by the end of the year at 15/1 last week, I was pleased to lay this off at about 9/2 this morning.
The straws in the wind are that the cabinet will support it, including all its leading Brexiteers, Cox has given it his ok, and JRM is keeping his powder dry for another day.
I think she’ll survive the year.
The situation is as fragile as an Australian batting lineup.
But, as with an Australian batting lineup with their big guns incapacitated one way or another, neither main party has the power to do anything to make things better.
Barnier may now be key. If he says 'this deal or no deal' at the right moment that may split the Tories but terrify Labour into supporting it. If he keeps schtum and Labour are foolish enough to vote it down in the hope of an election, the country's screwed and they will be massacred.
I really, really hope they see sense. That would be the best tenner I ever spent.
My reading of this is that there’ll be some almighty moans and sledging of it, but it will get through.
It might be very close in the UK Parliament, or even require two attempts, but that it will pass.
I won’t be commenting on what I think of it until I’ve read it. In full.
Yep. For those who bet on financial markets the £ is probably a buy now, or indeed may become a better buy if things get a bit rocky meantime.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
Neville Chamberlain was very good indeed as CoE. It was after he became PM that he went off a bit.
History is beginning to treat him significantly more kindly now we’ve moved past the Churchill-influenced historiography. In short, now it’s history not politics.
It really, really isn't. In fact if anything it's veering beyond what Churchill wrote and endorsing Michael Foot's judgements.
Have you read Six Minutes in May by Nicholas Shakespeare? Reveals much about Chamberlain to his credit.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Exactly. It’s why I voted Remain. It’s better to be a part of the rulemaking process if you’re going to have to follow the rules anyway.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
Ah. That's bad news. That suggests it is actually not a particularly good deal. Let's hope she hasn't read it yet and will be changing her mind or what passes for her mind shortly.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
This deal means Brexit negotiations will continue for years. That’s not going to please anyone who’s bored sick of it.
If we leave in an orderly manner and nothing really changes no-one outside the Conservative party is going to care that much about the negotiations. It is hard to see how the Tories can stop caring, though.
Have you read Six Minutes in May by Nicholas Shakespeare? Reveals much about Chamberlain to his credit.
I know a huge amount to Chamberlain's credit. It's just that most of it is not in his conduct of foreign affairs.
I've no doubt he believed he was doing the right thing, but ultimately his actions over Czechoslovakia in particular were at best futile and at worst self-defeating.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
Neville Chamberlain was very good indeed as CoE. It was after he became PM that he went off a bit.
History is beginning to treat him significantly more kindly now we’ve moved past the Churchill-influenced historiography. In short, now it’s history not politics.
It really, really isn't. In fact if anything it's veering beyond what Churchill wrote and endorsing Michael Foot's judgements.
We can agree to disagree here. Perhaps you’ve been reading too much Boris Johnson though...
Surely better for dissenters to argue their case at this afternoon's Cabinet meeting.
True. You’d think Boris would know that.....
Yeah but having gone against his personal instincts seeking personal advantage by backing what he thought would be a narrow Leave loss, he risked losing his prize if he allowed Davis to walk and didn't follow. That's why having proposed the toast to the Chequers deal he flounced out so shortly afterwards. As it is, Davis's stock has risen and Boris's has fallen, since the resignations.
Boris is now simply trying to compromise those who have stayed to argue their corner.
Having backed May to go by the end of the year at 15/1 last week, I was pleased to lay this off at about 9/2 this morning.
The straws in the wind are that the cabinet will support it, including all its leading Brexiteers, Cox has given it his ok, and JRM is keeping his powder dry for another day.
I think she’ll survive the year.
The situation is as fragile as an Australian batting lineup.
But, as with an Australian batting lineup with their big guns incapacitated one way or another, neither main party has the power to do anything to make things better.
Barnier may now be key. If he says 'this deal or no deal' at the right moment that may split the Tories but terrify Labour into supporting it. If he keeps schtum and Labour are foolish enough to vote it down in the hope of an election, the country's screwed and they will be massacred.
I really, really hope they see sense. That would be the best tenner I ever spent.
My reading of this is that there’ll be some almighty moans and sledging of it, but it will get through.
It might be very close in the UK Parliament, or even require two attempts, but that it will pass.
I won’t be commenting on what I think of it until I’ve read it. In full.
Yep. For those who bet on financial markets the £ is probably a buy now, or indeed may become a better buy if things get a bit rocky meantime.
I don't trade or bet USD/EUR but my employer will be holding a fair whack relative to our balance sheetat year end. I noted that Brexit going relatively well could cause us an exchange loss whereas not agreeing a deal would be a positive for us at year end due to sterling depreciation. Of course the absence of tariffs and barriers to trading with Europe are more important long term considerations. Interestingly most of our goods never actually cross into the UK (DIrectly shipped from say France to Germany, Vietnam to Korea or China to Germany say)
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
Neville Chamberlain was very good indeed as CoE. It was after he became PM that he went off a bit.
History is beginning to treat him significantly more kindly now we’ve moved past the Churchill-influenced historiography. In short, now it’s history not politics.
It really, really isn't. In fact if anything it's veering beyond what Churchill wrote and endorsing Michael Foot's judgements.
We can agree to disagree here. Perhaps you’ve been reading too much Boris Johnson though...
Never, to my knowledge, read a book by Boris Johnson. Alistair Parker, Richard Overy, Martin Gilbert and Kenneth Morgan, on the other hand...
Ah. That's bad news. That suggests it is actually not a particularly good deal. Let's hope she hasn't read it yet and will be changing her mind or what passes for her mind shortly.
If she has read it then something has gone wrong in the secure room. She's not in the Cabinet.
Another challenging day for Theresa but the early indications that this is close enough to what the current Cabinet had already accepted to go through. In the House things are more difficult but I still think that the majority will back the deal when they see the alternatives. Its high stakes poker for her because defeat on this surely means the end of her Premiership but that too has implications in the voting both for and against, mainly for at the moment.
The meaningful vote comes rather late to be much use. Is it in January? By then the process of signing this off will be well advanced and it will be obvious to even Corbyn, yes, even that thicko, that the meaningful choice is take or leave it.
Have you read Six Minutes in May by Nicholas Shakespeare? Reveals much about Chamberlain to his credit.
I know a huge amount to Chamberlain's credit. It's just that most of it is not in his conduct of foreign affairs.
I've no doubt he believed he was doing the right thing, but ultimately his actions over Czechoslovakia in particular were at best futile and at worst self-defeating.
Except that we were a lot better prepared for war by 1939, having been furiously rearming over the few years prior. And were in no position to offer any concrete military support to the Czechs anyway, as we weren't when Poland was overrun.
Ah. That's bad news. That suggests it is actually not a particularly good deal. Let's hope she hasn't read it yet and will be changing her mind or what passes for her mind shortly.
If she has read it then something has gone wrong in the secure room. She's not in the Cabinet.
She's kept in a secure room?
Sounds like a good place for the person who thought Amanda bloody Spielman wa fit to run OFSTED or had been anything other than a cataclysmic failure at OFQUAL, but I thought such people were banned from Parliament?
Ah. That's bad news. That suggests it is actually not a particularly good deal. Let's hope she hasn't read it yet and will be changing her mind or what passes for her mind shortly.
If she has read it then something has gone wrong in the secure room. She's not in the Cabinet.
I'm going off this:
'Tory MP Nicky Morgan, who was for Remain in the EU referendum, told the Today programme that the most important thing now was to "get UK politics restarted and for us to stop talking only about Europe and talk about all the other things people want us to talk about".
She said her constituents were most concerned about the protection of jobs and financial security and "whether we do enough to protect our economy overall as a country".
Mrs Morgan said she hoped Cabinet members would think about that when discussing the deal.
She said when it comes to Brexit, even those who voted Remain were now thinking "please now get on with this". Democracy had been put under strain, she added, saying: "There are 650 MPs elected in 2017. We need to step up to the plate and sort this out now. If we don't, what does that say about our parliament?"'
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
The rejoin campaign is taking shape. I think we can count on it. If an EU army is such a bad thing your best bet is to stop it is to stay in and veto it. If it goes through while we are out we will be stuck with it.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
A deal in which the UK becomes a ruletaker and doesn’t get to do independent trade deals, but which causes no disruption and gives slightly more control over immigration, is not going to cause many people much lost sleep outside of Westminster. We’ll no longer be able to stop the creation of an EU army, but who really cares?
Labour now the party of big business according to Rebecca Long-Bailey on R4.
Is being a fantasist one of the criteria for election or does it descend later. She seems to have forgotten the planned equity expropriation.
Addition. FAOD I’m not suggesting that the ERG fools are any better. Interesting distinction with “big” business as well. Is Amazon now an approved company?
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
A deal in which the UK becomes a ruletaker and doesn’t get to do independent trade deals, but which causes no disruption and gives slightly more control over immigration, is not going to cause many people much lost sleep outside of Westminster. We’ll no longer be able to stop the creation of an EU army, but who really cares?
Lol. The idea we could have stopped an EU army is fantasy.
You know nothing of the rest despite you trailing your memes early. You haven’t read the agreement yet, and neither have I.
Ah. That's bad news. That suggests it is actually not a particularly good deal. Let's hope she hasn't read it yet and will be changing her mind or what passes for her mind shortly.
If she has read it then something has gone wrong in the secure room. She's not in the Cabinet.
I'm going off this:
'Tory MP Nicky Morgan, who was for Remain in the EU referendum, told the Today programme that the most important thing now was to "get UK politics restarted and for us to stop talking only about Europe and talk about all the other things people want us to talk about".
She said her constituents were most concerned about the protection of jobs and financial security and "whether we do enough to protect our economy overall as a country".
Mrs Morgan said she hoped Cabinet members would think about that when discussing the deal.
She said when it comes to Brexit, even those who voted Remain were now thinking "please now get on with this". Democracy had been put under strain, she added, saying: "There are 650 MPs elected in 2017. We need to step up to the plate and sort this out now. If we don't, what does that say about our parliament?"'
What this deal effectively gives us is the softest possible Brexit. Why would any non-ideological Remainer be opposed to it?
Have you read Six Minutes in May by Nicholas Shakespeare? Reveals much about Chamberlain to his credit.
I know a huge amount to Chamberlain's credit. It's just that most of it is not in his conduct of foreign affairs.
I've no doubt he believed he was doing the right thing, but ultimately his actions over Czechoslovakia in particular were at best futile and at worst self-defeating.
Except that we were a lot better prepared for war by 1939, having been furiously rearming over the few years prior. And were in no position to offer any concrete military support to the Czechs anyway, as we weren't when Poland was overrun.
We didn't need to offer concrete military support to Czechoslovakia. The mere threat would have been enough. Unlike Poland, it had a defensible frontier, a large and well-equipped army, a modern munitions industry and a stable government. A threatened invasion of western Germany would have left any attempt to invade Czechoslovakia untenable.
Instead Chamberlain stripped them of their frontier, handed over their munitions industry, destabilised their government and split their army in half, because they were 'a small far away country of which we know nothing.'
And he gained nothing whatsoever from it. Indeed, it cost Britain and France their only reliable military ally in Eastern Europe.
It allowed more time for rearmament. True. Britain had more tanks than Germany in 1939, for example. That's bugger all help if instead of taking advantage of your enemy's preoccupation in the east to attack them in the west, you give your soldiers a winter holiday in France and Belgium.
You do not have to be a starry-eyed admirer of Churchill or have a personal down on Chamberlain to think these were rather foolish mistakes. Nor do you need the benefit of hindsight. My very astute great-uncle, for example, took one look at Munich and dragged both his brothers off to enlist. His reasoning was it would be war in six to twelve months and he wanted some choice over who, were and what he fought.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
The rejoin campaign is taking shape. I think we can count on it. If an EU army is such a bad thing your best bet is to stop it is to stay in and veto it. If it goes through while we are out we will be stuck with it.
My point is that it makes it harder to win a re-join referendum amongst the public at large.
Of course, a Government could always try and take us into all that without a referendum. Not sure how well received that’d be.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
A deal in which the UK becomes a ruletaker and doesn’t get to do independent trade deals, but which causes no disruption and gives slightly more control over immigration, is not going to cause many people much lost sleep outside of Westminster. We’ll no longer be able to stop the creation of an EU army, but who really cares?
Lol. The idea we could have stopped an EU army is fantasy.
You know nothing of the rest despite you trailing your memes early. You haven’t read the agreement yet, and neither have I.
We had a veto.
I will happily bet any amount you care to name on the rest.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
The cabinet will back this. This deal and text didn't come out of thin air. They will have been aware of the parameters of the negotiation for some time and be signed up to them. The Tory party, that's trickier.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
But this Brexit deal lives or dies by what Labour does.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
The rejoin campaign is taking shape. I think we can count on it. If an EU army is such a bad thing your best bet is to stop it is to stay in and veto it. If it goes through while we are out we will be stuck with it.
My point is that it makes it harder to win a re-join referendum amongst the public at large.
Of course, a Government could always try and take us into all that without a referendum. Not sure how well received that’d be.
On the contrary. If there is an EU army when we rejoin we can decide we don't want to join the army bit. No problem at all.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
The rejoin campaign is taking shape. I think we can count on it. If an EU army is such a bad thing your best bet is to stop it is to stay in and veto it. If it goes through while we are out we will be stuck with it.
My point is that it makes it harder to win a re-join referendum amongst the public at large.
Of course, a Government could always try and take us into all that without a referendum. Not sure how well received that’d be.
On the contrary. If there is an EU army when we rejoin we can decide we don't want to join the army bit. No problem at all.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
Neville Chamberlain was very good indeed as CoE. It was after he became PM that he went off a bit.
History is beginning to treat him significantly more kindly now we’ve moved past the Churchill-influenced historiography. In short, now it’s history not politics.
It really, really isn't. In fact if anything it's veering beyond what Churchill wrote and endorsing Michael Foot's judgements.
We can agree to disagree here. Perhaps you’ve been reading too much Boris Johnson though...
Never, to my knowledge, read a book by Boris Johnson. Alistair Parker, Richard Overy, Martin Gilbert and Kenneth Morgan, on the other hand...
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such was relatively obvious from the beginning, and indeed I am on record as saying as much during the referendum campaign.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s job easier by announcing their intention to form an EU army, enthusiastically backed by Verhofstadht. Re-Remain now has an extra question mark over it and it ups the risk for ERG of a no-deal play hideously backfiring.
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
A deal in which the UK becomes a ruletaker and doesn’t get to do independent trade deals, but which causes no disruption and gives slightly more control over immigration, is not going to cause many people much lost sleep outside of Westminster. We’ll no longer be able to stop the creation of an EU army, but who really cares?
On the latter point I am in favour - it may save the UK some money after all. Sadly I doubt if they'll be willing to commit the funds needed for anything effective.
We need to get used to a similar relationship with the EU that we have with the US. There will be lots of rhetoric about a special, close relationship, but when push comes to shove we’ll have to go along with the bigger beast when it wants something.
McVey for new Conservative leader to implement Brexit in the absence of more cowardly collegues?
There's not much that might me think of actively voting for Corbyn at the next GE, but..
Seconded. For the average person, suspect the deal is actually fine and means the world goes on. The hardcore elements on both sides are missing this part of the equation.
Yep. I totally agree. We do become a rule taker. We will be tied to the EU indefinitely. But most people will not notice or care very much. It’s not as if most people want lower environmental standards or less employment protection.
Such .
Merkel/Macron have just made May’s
A deal in which the UK becomes a ruletaker and doesn’t get to do independent trade deals, but which causes no disruption and gives slightly more control over immigration, is not going to cause many people much lost sleep outside of Westminster. We’ll no longer be able to stop the creation of an EU army, but who really cares?
Lol. The idea we could have stopped an EU army is fantasy.
You know nothing of the rest despite you trailing your memes early. You haven’t read the agreement yet, and neither have I.
We had a veto.
I will happily bet any amount you care to name on the rest.
We’d both disagree on the parameters of that bet.
The deal will be out (in full) over the next day or two. We can debate it on here.
One thing is already clear: despite many Remainers saying we were supplicants to the EU on NI and we’d have to take it or leave it, they have already moved and agreed independent arbitration of the U.K. backstop.
It’s a negotiation and the devil will be in the detail.
Totally off topic, I saw Crimes of Grindelwald this evening, and it was utterly brilliant. By far the darkest and most disturbing movie from the JK Rowling universe.
We need to get used to a similar relationship with the EU that we have with the US. There will be lots of rhetoric about a special, close relationship, but when push comes to shove we’ll have to go along with the bigger beast when it wants something.
Exactly. And we'll need to get used to Ireland being the most powerful state than the UK.
One of McD's minions stalling on R4 Today over what Labour will do.
To be fair, has anyone got the faintest idea what the Conservatives will do? No? OK, let's make it easier: what will the Cabinet do?
The cabinet will back this. This deal and text didn't come out of thin air. They will have been aware of the parameters of the negotiation for some time and be signed up to them. The Tory party, that's trickier.
It's a gamble, walking now would enhance their leadership chances if it fails in the house.
If Raab walk now he'll be PM by Christmas. PM of an economic wasteland, but still PM.
Penny will doubtless flounce out, if May falls she'll be rewarded with a promotion.
If they walk and it passes, their career is over. Maybe safer to stay.
Comments
Perhaps she’s waiting until she’s seen the deal?
Novel, I know, but there you are.....
I fought the entire 2016Ref campaign on EU=Unlimited Mass Immigration.
And I've seen nothing since to indicate anything has, or will, change.
"On Tuesday's Newsnight, the leading Brexiteer was asked if he has submitted a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.
He said: 'I haven’t written to Sir Graham Brady' (the chairman of the 1922 committee) and that he would not do so 'in the next 24hours'.
But he added: 'There comes a point at which the policy and the individual become so intimately connected that it would be very hard to carry on promoting the person who is promoting this policy.'"
If JRM and the leaders of the ERG simultaneously press the button, should get 48 in one go.
With the DUP's 'S&C is for the Tory party not MrsMay" this might actually be it.
Plenty of time for 3month leadership contest too. Just in time for the new leader to cut the tape to open Independent Britain.
Fingers crossed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/politics/five-days-of-fury-inside-trumps-paris-temper-election-woes-and-staff-upheaval/2018/11/13/e90b7cba-e69e-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html?noredirect=on&__twitter_impression=true
It's absolutely fundamental to them.
* Trump gets hammered in the mid-terms
* Makes ludicrously unconvincing declaration of victory
* TMay *calls him to congratulate him*
She has a thankless, exhausting job, it must be moments like this that make it all worthwhile.
The straws in the wind are that the cabinet will support it, including all its leading Brexiteers, Cox has given it his ok, and JRM is keeping his powder dry for another day.
I think she’ll survive the year.
But, as with an Australian batting lineup with their big guns incapacitated one way or another, neither main party has the power to do anything to make things better.
Barnier may now be key. If he says 'this deal or no deal' at the right moment that may split the Tories but terrify Labour into supporting it. If he keeps schtum and Labour are foolish enough to vote it down in the hope of an election, the country's screwed and they will be massacred.
I really, really hope they see sense. That would be the best tenner I ever spent.
The only way the leavers' wet dream could come about is if the EU collapsed, or if Brexit led to a domino effect of leaving, as indeed many of them hoped and expected.
Otherwise, we were always destined to be sitting outside of one of the world's major trading blocks and would be obliged to follow most of its standards as a simple matter of practicality. The theoretically independent sovereignty of smaller neighbours of the powerful is always heavily constrained in practice.
http://www.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1062456175797682177
OK, Jeremy (and in fairness, the others, one of whom is Rees-Mogg on steroids, one of whom is an irrelevance and one of whom is increasingly giving the impression of senility). Just to point out a couple of minor issues:
1) You can't amend draft treaties without the agreement of the other side. It's now clear that would not be forthcoming.
2) You have 'proposed alternatives' at all points. So have the ERG. But ultimately they can't be implemented without the agreement of all signatories. Again, such agreement would not be forthcoming.
3) Parliament is sovereign. So it could choose to crash out, which is the alternative. But is that really what you want?
This is of course one reason why treaties were part of the Royal Prerogative until the Supreme Court went mad with self-importance and arbitrarily decided otherwise. Gina Miller's case has been an utter fiasco. In a desperate bid to keep us in the EU, her actions have pushed us to the brink of a crashout.
Thanks a bunch, Gina.
It might be very close in the UK Parliament, or even require two attempts, but that it will pass.
I won’t be commenting on what I think of it until I’ve read it. In full.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1062605426250932224?s=19
Meanwhile, that EU rhetoric will be banked. Like many times before when they said it wasn’t on the cards before a couple of years later, it absolutely was.
It will be of great use to the Stay Outers if a campaign to rejoin ever kicks off.
I've no doubt he believed he was doing the right thing, but ultimately his actions over Czechoslovakia in particular were at best futile and at worst self-defeating.
Boris is now simply trying to compromise those who have stayed to argue their corner.
Of course the absence of tariffs and barriers to trading with Europe are more important long term considerations. Interestingly most of our goods never actually cross into the UK (DIrectly shipped from say France to Germany, Vietnam to Korea or China to Germany say)
https://www.twitter.com/MurphyCBS46/status/1062425579465654273
Am I too cynical, or is this the most transparent inducement not to resign so far?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46196238
"Police investigating the disappearance of Madeleine McCann have received a further £150,000 in government funding."
And to quote Wikipedia:
"A longstanding friend of Kate McCann, Esther McVey helped her family set up the Madeleine McCann Fund, becoming a founding trustee."
(Confirmed by https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/06248215/officers )
So, out of the blue, the Government finds another £150k for a charity supported by the cabinet minister most likely to resign. What are the odds, eh?
The meaningful vote comes rather late to be much use. Is it in January? By then the process of signing this off will be well advanced and it will be obvious to even Corbyn, yes, even that thicko, that the meaningful choice is take or leave it.
https://youtu.be/xHo82501394
Sounds like a good place for the person who thought Amanda bloody Spielman wa fit to run OFSTED or had been anything other than a cataclysmic failure at OFQUAL, but I thought such people were banned from Parliament?
'Tory MP Nicky Morgan, who was for Remain in the EU referendum, told the Today programme that the most important thing now was to "get UK politics restarted and for us to stop talking only about Europe and talk about all the other things people want us to talk about".
She said her constituents were most concerned about the protection of jobs and financial security and "whether we do enough to protect our economy overall as a country".
Mrs Morgan said she hoped Cabinet members would think about that when discussing the deal.
She said when it comes to Brexit, even those who voted Remain were now thinking "please now get on with this". Democracy had been put under strain, she added, saying: "There are 650 MPs elected in 2017. We need to step up to the plate and sort this out now. If we don't, what does that say about our parliament?"'
Addition. FAOD I’m not suggesting that the ERG fools are any better. Interesting distinction with “big” business as well. Is Amazon now an approved company?
You know nothing of the rest despite you trailing your memes early. You haven’t read the agreement yet, and neither have I.
Instead Chamberlain stripped them of their frontier, handed over their munitions industry, destabilised their government and split their army in half, because they were 'a small far away country of which we know nothing.'
And he gained nothing whatsoever from it. Indeed, it cost Britain and France their only reliable military ally in Eastern Europe.
It allowed more time for rearmament. True. Britain had more tanks than Germany in 1939, for example. That's bugger all help if instead of taking advantage of your enemy's preoccupation in the east to attack them in the west, you give your soldiers a winter holiday in France and Belgium.
You do not have to be a starry-eyed admirer of Churchill or have a personal down on Chamberlain to think these were rather foolish mistakes. Nor do you need the benefit of hindsight. My very astute great-uncle, for example, took one look at Munich and dragged both his brothers off to enlist. His reasoning was it would be war in six to twelve months and he wanted some choice over who, were and what he fought.
Have a good morning.
Of course, a Government could always try and take us into all that without a referendum. Not sure how well received that’d be.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1062475030255333376?s=21
Morgan may be playing a longer game here too.
I will happily bet any amount you care to name on the rest.
As some of us have been pointing out for an age.
If the Cabinet is one board - so what? A "meaningful vote" still leaves Corbyn an opportunity to get an election before 2022. But he has to own No Deal Brexit to do so.
One EU, one people, one army. Why's everyone worried about that?
The deal will be out (in full) over the next day or two. We can debate it on here.
One thing is already clear: despite many Remainers saying we were supplicants to the EU on NI and we’d have to take it or leave it, they have already moved and agreed independent arbitration of the U.K. backstop.
It’s a negotiation and the devil will be in the detail.
If Raab walk now he'll be PM by Christmas. PM of an economic wasteland, but still PM.
Penny will doubtless flounce out, if May falls she'll be rewarded with a promotion.
If they walk and it passes, their career is over. Maybe safer to stay.
Mr. Felix, it was tongue in cheek.
Mr. Johnstone, my guess is there'll be relatively few, if any, resignations. They should've axed May post-election.