So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Fully agree that now's the time to go fully nuclear on the ERG.
May stating that failing to get her deal approved will prompt another referendum would definitely be a smart tactic, especially just ahead of the planned parliamentary vote. Sit back and watch the ERG start fighting with each other....if they want to wreck Brexit its up to them.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.
The whips need to go to work on some of those, can't see enough labour rebels coming out the woodwork to offset that.
Don't forget the X number of Remainer Tories. Greening was not holding back earlier.
Yeah, I feel like the People's Vote crowd have *finally* realised they need to start focussing minds on voting down any possible deal, in the past two or three weeks. I think before that they were so distracted by the joy of finding a way to get young people pissed off at Corbyn that they took their eye off the ball. It remains to be seen whether it's too little too late.
They will be seen as reckless gamblers by many. The mirror image of ERG.
Oh sure. But the point is if they really want their second referendum, this was always going to be what they'd have to do. If they just want to give speeches and go on marches and write opinion pieces for the Independent and get warm feelings deep in their coddled little centrist hearts, then sure, go ahead and do that. But if they actually want to achieve anything, they have to fight tooth and claw, and staring No Deal in the face was an inevitable part of that.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Ah, so you agree she won't actually get to see it passed, and merely agreeing it with the EU will be the best she can do?
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
The only chance is the slim idea that after an initial rejection all other options fail to get through too, the markets go bonkers, and they reluctantly relent. But that seems pretty difficult too.
4. If it’s so utterly unacceptable for Ulster to have even the slightest difference with the mainland when it comes to goods regulation, then surely we can’t possibly countenance them having different rules on abortion and gay marriage. We might as well abolish Stormont and NI as a separate jurisdiction.
The Loyalists are loyal to no-one but themselves. This is a lesson the Tory Party should never forget.
It's not like they are relying on the DUP by choice either. But they seem like unreliable partners anyway, so if they are the only block on a deal then do it and have a GE when the DUP bring down the government.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
If that were true there'd be no EU-referendum, no Brexit.
What a stupid thing to say (and presumably it must have come from Mordaunt or May's team) - if you don't want to vote for the damn thing don't vote for it, if it doesn't get through May will be gone anyway and you probably as well for backing her for so long.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
Remainers don’t like it. Half of Leavers Hate it. Theresa Mays fans will support it. They will both make as much noise as they can.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
If that were true there'd be no EU-referendum, no Brexit.
You don't think Farage, Boris, et al. are members of the political class?
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
I disagree. I think a sizeable majority of the public just want this to be over.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
If that were true there'd be no EU-referendum, no Brexit.
You don't think Farage, Boris, et al. are members of the political class?
Boris especially is a follower not a former of public opinion.
Hilarious isn't it. These idiots got us to this place and now they are realising we had a pretty decent arrangement with the EU.
Especially considering it turns out we are an island and trades quite a bit with this big thing called the continent which they had all been to on holiday but didn't realise what it was.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
I disagree. I think a sizeable majority of the public just want this to be over.
Not at any cost. The MPs are steering this phase of events, and they are still wrangling to remain/no deal/GE, neither side has, yet, collapsed in the polls, and given each will blame the other for the chaos how would dissatisfied voters punish those who stand in the way of a deal? It ain't happening.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
I disagree. I think a sizeable majority of the public just want this to be over.
Oh dear they are going to be disappointed.
Even if this deals passes, it is mainly can kicking as far as long term trading relationship goes.
I fear that @williamglenn will be proved right - the ERG, in their quest for perfection, will ensure that Britain votes to stay in the EU, and Euroscepticism will be finished.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
I disagree. I think a sizeable majority of the public just want this to be over.
Agreed, and for there to be a deal so we don't fall off a cliff edge at the end of March. I think there will be huge pressure from all over the country for MPs to accept this as a compromise.
I'm not saying that will get it through, but if it doesn't and the cliff edge really is as cliffy and edgy as it could be, then any MP who voted against the deal will be blamed for driving the country to disaster.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
I fear that @williamglenn will be proved right - the ERG, in their quest for perfection, will ensure that Britain votes to stay in the EU, and Euroscepticism will be finished.
Hilarious isn't it. These idiots got us to this place and now they are realising we had a pretty decent arrangement with the EU.
Especially considering it turns out we are an island and trades quite a bit with this big thing called the continent which they had all been to on holiday but didn't realise what it was.
If they genuinely believe a bad brexit is worse than no brexit, that at least is a more reasonable position than those making vague promises that, in a very short space of time even with an extension, they would ensure a better brexit.
What a stupid thing to say (and presumably it must have come from Mordaunt or May's team) - if you don't want to vote for the damn thing don't vote for it, if it doesn't get through May will be gone anyway and you probably as well for backing her for so long.
No could have been briefed by someone who seems Mordaunt as a leadership rival when the time comes?
How will Labour MPs vote if it's a choice between May's deal or no deal?
They might try to abstain. But surely they will claim that is not how the vote will be framed.
But surely that's exactly how TMay will ensure the vote is framed?
I am not an expert on parliamentary procedure. My assumption is she will attempt to frame it that way, but Labour will claim it is not the same thing, and that parliament could always vote again to, say, suspend A50 unilaterally while a GE is organised, so they are not voting for no deal by voting down the deal. Even though no deal might well happen as a result.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
We are leaving under this deal. But not wrecking the economy in the process
35 ERGers at their meeting tonight, though a few obvious names missing. Strongly suspect that 30-40 is right for the number prepared to vote against the Deal.
The whips need to go to work on some of those, can't see enough labour rebels coming out the woodwork to offset that.
Don't forget the X number of Remainer Tories. Greening was not holding back earlier.
Yeah, I feel like the People's Vote crowd have *finally* realised they need to start focussing minds on voting down any possible deal, in the past two or three weeks. I think before that they were so distracted by the joy of finding a way to get young people pissed off at Corbyn that they took their eye off the ball. It remains to be seen whether it's too little too late.
A sensible course of action for May would be to get a vote on Ref2 out of the way before the vote on the deal. Assuming that the Ref2 proposal was defeated (which seems probable) that would mean Tory remain supporters would be left with deal/no deal as the choice and ought to reduce the number of rebels from that direction.
What a stupid thing to say (and presumably it must have come from Mordaunt or May's team) - if you don't want to vote for the damn thing don't vote for it, if it doesn't get through May will be gone anyway and you probably as well for backing her for so long.
No could have been briefed by someone who seems Mordaunt as a leadership rival when the time comes?
If she ever leads the party we truly have reached a new low.
McDonnell is terrifying. I genuinely fear he will put us on the Venezuelan path.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
If the Tories want to ensure we leave at all they might need to accept upsetting a lot of people and getting a non ideal Brexit and taking a polling hit.
We will probably still leave via no deal, but remain is at its highest chance right now.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
So do you think we should leave with No Deal as the EU will not compromise any more?
Hilarious isn't it. These idiots got us to this place and now they are realising we had a pretty decent arrangement with the EU.
Especially considering it turns out we are an island and trades quite a bit with this big thing called the continent which they had all been to on holiday but didn't realise what it was.
Pretty decent arrangement? Net £9 billion a year to let Germany sell us their cars without tarrifs. The most expensive free trade agreement in history.
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
If that were true there'd be no EU-referendum, no Brexit.
You don't think Farage, Boris, et al. are members of the political class?
Boris especially is a follower not a former of public opinion.
Hm, I think he certainly tries to find a position which will be most advantageous to his own career, and that does involve following public opinion, but I think it also involves a bit of uphill pushing to try to shape out a spot for himself. And he's just about the most nakedly careerist politician around.
But the point is it's very much the politicians, public figures, and controllers of media outlets who set the political conversation. The public rarely gets a meaningful look-in. The election of Corbyn is a good example of the stars aligning to accidentally give the public (or at least a section of it which isn't dominated by the political class) an actual say, and of course the result was both unexpected and drastic because what the media/politicians had been saying up until then was so far away from the public.
Will be really interested to see the deal details when published.
Looks like it might squeak through the cabinet. The mood music suggests that the backstop has been fudged.
If Remainers want to call leaving the SM, CU and Europeans courts BINO, then I think we’ve finally come full circle. Brexiteers and Remainers united after all!
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
The political class are the drivers of public opinion, not vice-versa.
I disagree. I think a sizeable majority of the public just want this to be over.
Oh dear they are going to be disappointed.
Even if this deals passes, it is mainly can kicking as far as long term trading relationship goes.
What a stupid thing to say (and presumably it must have come from Mordaunt or May's team) - if you don't want to vote for the damn thing don't vote for it, if it doesn't get through May will be gone anyway and you probably as well for backing her for so long.
No could have been briefed by someone who seems Mordaunt as a leadership rival when the time comes?
If she ever leads the party we truly have reached a new low.
McDonnell is terrifying. I genuinely fear he will put us on the Venezuelan path.
He will need to get rid of house of lords first as they will block non manifesto stuff about nationalising all land.
As I have said before, getting rid of second chamber will Cobryn Government's version of Browns surprise BoE independence announcement two days after GE win.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
Never mind the problems the Tories have got if Labour block the deal then they are finished.
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
What a stupid thing to say (and presumably it must have come from Mordaunt or May's team) - if you don't want to vote for the damn thing don't vote for it, if it doesn't get through May will be gone anyway and you probably as well for backing her for so long.
No could have been briefed by someone who seems Mordaunt as a leadership rival when the time comes?
If she ever leads the party we truly have reached a new low.
McDonnell is terrifying. I genuinely fear he will put us on the Venezuelan path.
He will need to get rid of house of lords first as they will block non manifesto stuff about nationalising all land.
The worst the Lords can do is delay legislation for a year.
Signing off, but right now my gut is coming up with some odd, poorly formed ideas on how things are going to play out.
I can see May finally being ousted after parliament votes to reject her deal, we have a series of votes on different options all failing while an interim leader of the Tories is made PM (yes I know this would require, I believe, an uncontested contender, in this scenario no doubt on the promise they would step down once this agreed for a contest), any potential summit is cancelled and then in the new year parliament reluctantly backs the same deal May put to them, under the new PM, with the price being a new GE in April, which Labour will win outright.
But my main gut is still on no deal - I don't have confidence this lot can agree a position on anything.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
People said similar after Chequers, yet the Tories remain level or ahead in most polls.
The average voter is neither an ERG No Deal diehard nor a Remainer reverse Brexit EUphile and will shrug their shoulders and see May trying to do the best of an impossible job and move on
If May gets the numbers, it will be something like:
Starts 5 short of a majority, less 5 Tory Remainers, less 24 hardcore Leavers, plus 3 Labour leavers, plus 18 Labour pragmatists, and some abstentions (no pairs?)
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
Never mind the problems the Tories have got if Labour block the deal then they are finished.
Why? Most of their seats now support remain, apparently. They believe voting down the deal will lead to that.
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
No it isn’t . A good number of votes in Mays party are definitely not up for grabs. When you start 9 votes down you can’t lose a single one.
What tangible does Labour get out of it? May needs to offer something concrete, like a GE.
Irrelevant. They aren't going to magically change position once they do read it, nor will most of the public get around to doing so to realise how reasonable or not dismissing it without reading it may be.
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
It is fast changing. A big Labour abstention will see it pass.
If May gets the numbers, it will be something like:
Starts 5 short of a majority, less 5 Tory Remainers, less 24 hardcore Leavers, plus 3 Labour leavers, plus 18 Labour pragmatists, and some abstentions (no pairs?)
What possible justification would there be for abstaining on an issue this critical?
If May gets the numbers, it will be something like:
Starts 5 short of a majority, less 5 Tory Remainers, less 24 hardcore Leavers, plus 3 Labour leavers, plus 18 Labour pragmatists, and some abstentions (no pairs?)
What possible justification would there be for abstaining on an issue this critical?
Hoey is already against. Edit. Will not support. Which I suppose means an abstain is possible, but doesn’t help May.
If May gets the numbers, it will be something like:
Starts 5 short of a majority, less 5 Tory Remainers, less 24 hardcore Leavers, plus 3 Labour leavers, plus 18 Labour pragmatists, and some abstentions (no pairs?)
What possible justification would there be for abstaining on an issue this critical?
Hoey is already against.
Right. So not abstaining? I don't see how any MP could abstain on this.
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
No it isn’t . A good number of votes in Mays party are definitely not up for grabs. When you start 9 votes down you can’t lose a single one.
What tangible does Labour get out of it? May needs to offer something concrete, like a GE.
I don't think she starts nine down.
650 less 7 SF less Paisley (who is suspended) is 642, maj. 322; the Tories (including those without the whip ATM) are 317 I think.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
Never mind the problems the Tories have got if Labour block the deal then they are finished.
Why? Most of their seats now support remain, apparently. They believe voting down the deal will lead to that.
Because it is risking a hard Brexit and there is not yet an appetite for another referendum. I suppose we shall see if British moderation and pragmatism is still strong enough to defeat the over-exited idealogues of the internet age! I think a majority will back the deal to avoid confrontation and risk. If Labour are seen as motivated primarily to force an election that will backfire on them big time.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
If May gets the numbers, it will be something like:
Starts 5 short of a majority, less 5 Tory Remainers, less 24 hardcore Leavers, plus 3 Labour leavers, plus 18 Labour pragmatists, and some abstentions (no pairs?)
What possible justification would there be for abstaining on an issue this critical?
a few reasons. ill health, a few people who could not walk through a door with Corbyn and/or the Tory hard right, etc, a few people who made promises not to vote in favour,
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
No it isn’t . A good number of votes in Mays party are definitely not up for grabs. When you start 9 votes down you can’t lose a single one.
What tangible does Labour get out of it? May needs to offer something concrete, like a GE.
I don't think she starts nine down.
650 less 7 SF less Paisley (who is suspended) is 642, maj. 322; the Tories (including those without the whip ATM) are 317 I think.
You’re correct.
@Jonathan underestimates the number of Labour MPs who might vote in the national interest. I think 15-25 is entirely possible.
Frankly, I think the cabinet is a harder sell than the commons. Remember, despite all the bluster, the Govt have lost one vote in the entire Brexit process. On a matter of process.
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
No it isn’t . A good number of votes in Mays party are definitely not up for grabs. When you start 9 votes down you can’t lose a single one.
What tangible does Labour get out of it? May needs to offer something concrete, like a GE.
I don't think she starts nine down.
650 less 7 SF less Paisley (who is suspended) is 642, maj. 322; the Tories (including those without the whip ATM) are 317 I think.
You’re correct.
@Jonathan underestimates the number of Labour MPs who might vote in the national interest. I think 15-25 is entirely possible.
Frankly, I think the cabinet is a harder sell than the commons. Remember, despite all the bluster, the Govt have lost one vote in the entire Brexit process. On a matter of process.
Labour MPs always vote in the national interest. :-)
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
Never mind the problems the Tories have got if Labour block the deal then they are finished.
Why? Most of their seats now support remain, apparently. They believe voting down the deal will lead to that.
Because it is risking a hard Brexit and there is not yet an appetite for another referendum. I suppose we shall see if British moderation and pragmatism is still strong enough to defeat the over-exited idealogues of the internet age! I think a majority will back the deal to avoid confrontation and risk. If Labour are seen as motivated primarily to force an election that will backfire on them big time.
It'll be brinkmanship for sure, but if the deal is voted down, a general election is inevitable, either as a last ditch effort to force the issue or in the wake of a no deal economic crash. Unless Labour can get an election as the price of support, which I just don't see May offering, then if she can get the deal through the Tories will be safe until 2022.
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
No it isn’t . A good number of votes in Mays party are definitely not up for grabs. When you start 9 votes down you can’t lose a single one.
What tangible does Labour get out of it? May needs to offer something concrete, like a GE.
I don't think she starts nine down.
650 less 7 SF less Paisley (who is suspended) is 642, maj. 322; the Tories (including those without the whip ATM) are 317 I think.
You’re correct.
@Jonathan underestimates the number of Labour MPs who might vote in the national interest. I think 15-25 is entirely possible.
Frankly, I think the cabinet is a harder sell than the commons. Remember, despite all the bluster, the Govt have lost one vote in the entire Brexit process. On a matter of process.
Because the ERG has supported the Govt. The remain Tory fraction has only mustered about 9 votes against the Govt. The question is when the ERG go all in against the Govt - how many will vote against?
How must DD be feeling tonight? Theresa and his replacement are on the verge of an epoch-defining settlement, and his only contribution to it was to skulk off in a right old huff.
How must DD be feeling tonight? Theresa and his replacement are on the verge of an epoch-defining settlement, and his only contribution to it was to skulk off in a right old huff.
If May is lucky, he will resign and force a by-election.
1. Against the odds, Dave comes up with a rather good deal, better than could have been hoped for when Lisbon was ratified. It's very effectively pre-rubbished by Steve Baker and heavy friends, so becomes universally disliked by people who haven't read it.
2. Dave gets ditched and the replacement is much worse.
3. The replacement PM nonetheless does her best, and against the odds comes up with a deal. Admittedly it's much worse than what we had with Dave's deal, but, still, we could live with it without too much economic damage. However, it's very effectively pre-rubbished by Steve Baker and heavy friends - who this time make no bones about the fact that they haven't actually read it.
Next stage: if the cycle continues, which seems likely, we are going to get an even worse PM that the present one, who will try to cobble together an even worse deal.
The cycle will perhaps only be broken by a complete collapse into a Corbyn government, which will at least have the merit of making us all aware of what we have thrown away,
It is obvious isn't it - but ERG do not have a clue, just hitting out as TM safeguards the economy and union
So May starts -9 votes down. Assuming the DUP, the ERG leaders and a few others are voting against. Even with a strong whipping operation May is about 30 votes short.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
I would expect labour mps will vote for it in sufficient numbers
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
No it isn’t . A good number of votes in Mays party are definitely not up for grabs. When you start 9 votes down you can’t lose a single one.
What tangible does Labour get out of it? May needs to offer something concrete, like a GE.
I don't think she starts nine down.
650 less 7 SF less Paisley (who is suspended) is 642, maj. 322; the Tories (including those without the whip ATM) are 317 I think.
You’re correct.
@Jonathan underestimates the number of Labour MPs who might vote in the national interest. I think 15-25 is entirely possible.
Frankly, I think the cabinet is a harder sell than the commons. Remember, despite all the bluster, the Govt have lost one vote in the entire Brexit process. On a matter of process.
Because the ERG has supported the Govt. The remain Tory fraction has only mustered about 9 votes against the Govt. The question is when the ERG go all in against the Govt - how many will vote against?
It’s an interesting question. If we see resignations from the cabinet it will be because their PPS are suggesting it won’t get through Parliament. Interestingly, last night Michael Tomlinson was appointed Raab’s PPS. He was (still is?) Deputy Chair of the ERG.
If May gets the numbers, it will be something like:
Starts 5 short of a majority, less 5 Tory Remainers, less 24 hardcore Leavers, plus 3 Labour leavers, plus 18 Labour pragmatists, and some abstentions (no pairs?)
What possible justification would there be for abstaining on an issue this critical?
a few reasons. ill health, a few people who could not walk through a door with Corbyn and/or the Tory hard right, etc, a few people who made promises not to vote in favour,
Ill health is a reason not to vote at all surely, and fair enough. As for the others, suck it up and vote is my advice, if the deal or no deal are unconscionable how can someone with 1/650 of the responsibility for this nation stand aside? Unless neither the deal nor no deal are as bad as people are pretending, if they cannot contemplate walking down a lobby with Corbyn/May. It's not like the ultras seem to have a problem doing so together, leave and remain.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
Never mind the problems the Tories have got if Labour block the deal then they are finished.
Why? Most of their seats now support remain, apparently. They believe voting down the deal will lead to that.
Because it is risking a hard Brexit and there is not yet an appetite for another referendum. I suppose we shall see if British moderation and pragmatism is still strong enough to defeat the over-exited idealogues of the internet age! I think a majority will back the deal to avoid confrontation and risk. If Labour are seen as motivated primarily to force an election that will backfire on them big time.
It'll be brinkmanship for sure, but if the deal is voted down, a general election is inevitable, either as a last ditch effort to force the issue or in the wake of a no deal economic crash. Unless Labour can get an election as the price of support, which I just don't see May offering, then if she can get the deal through the Tories will be safe until 2022.
To be quite frank if May can't get her Deal through I would rather Corbyn PM in a minority government and forced to agree a virtually identical Deal himself than a Tory government with No Deal
I think May has as at least succeeded in putting forward the middle ground. If she gets voted down, at least we will know that the middle ground does not exist.
So Mays defending a working majority of -9 without the DUP. Boris, DD and JRM are all part of that.
As are Clarke, Johnson, Soubry, Grieve, Greening, Wollaston, Lee and no doubt quite a few other committed remainers I can't remember. And both remainers and leavers have committed themselves in such forthright terms they could not possibly back May without a complete loss of credibility.
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
I can't see how the maths works. There is no chance unless we are all missing something incredible.
Public opinion.
Never mind the problems the Tories have got if Labour block the deal then they are finished.
Why? Most of their seats now support remain, apparently. They believe voting down the deal will lead to that.
Because it is risking a hard Brexit and there is not yet an appetite for another referendum. I suppose we shall see if British moderation and pragmatism is still strong enough to defeat the over-exited idealogues of the internet age! I think a majority will back the deal to avoid confrontation and risk. If Labour are seen as motivated primarily to force an election that will backfire on them big time.
It'll be brinkmanship for sure, but if the deal is voted down, a general election is inevitable, either as a last ditch effort to force the issue or in the wake of a no deal economic crash. Unless Labour can get an election as the price of support, which I just don't see May offering, then if she can get the deal through the Tories will be safe until 2022.
To be quite frank if May can't get her Deal through I would rather Corbyn PM in a minority government and forced to agree a virtually identical Deal himself than a Tory government with No Deal
maybe we can make this a secret ballot so Jeremy can vote in favour (but tell everyone he voted Remain)
1. Against the odds, Dave comes up with a rather good deal, better than could have been hoped for when Lisbon was ratified. It's very effectively pre-rubbished by Steve Baker and heavy friends, so becomes universally disliked by people who haven't read it.
2. Dave gets ditched and the replacement is much worse.
3. The replacement PM nonetheless does her best, and against the odds comes up with a deal. Admittedly it's much worse than what we had with Dave's deal, but, still, we could live with it without too much economic damage. However, it's very effectively pre-rubbished by Steve Baker and heavy friends - who this time make no bones about the fact that they haven't actually read it.
Next stage: if the cycle continues, which seems likely, we are going to get an even worse PM that the present one, who will try to cobble together an even worse deal.
The cycle will perhaps only be broken by a complete collapse into a Corbyn government, which will at least have the merit of making us all aware of what we have thrown away,
I think this is the most realistic take tonight. An assumption there are oodles of Labour MPs heretofore unwilling to stick their necks out who will prop up the government, or that the public will someone magically sway behind a complicated, compromise deal when people on left and right are saying it is shit, and that this will convince ultra remainer and ultra leavers who are needed to get a deal through, well, it does not seem quite as realistic.
Good night all. This deal will not get through the commons.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
Spot on. The deal honours the referendum outcome without screwing the economy. Well done Theresa - this will be seen as your finest hour.
Her Last Hour more like.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
Yes, but the Tories are the party of Appeasement, so it will pass.
I cannot see it being popular though!
Mr Chamberlain was very popular at his peak.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
48 crucial hours ahead. If JRM and Boris keep the narrative (probably by Penny Mordaunt flouncing with such aplomb she gets recognised as the woman off that diving show a while back), the Commons will be undoubtedly tricky.
But if she gets through tomorrow with no-one quitting, and she has the Express on-side and a neutral Mail, I do wonder whether MPs will start to perceive that maybe the view of the great British public is swinging round to "JFDI". And a narrative of "May Pulls It Off" would be attractive to fall in behind.
Of course there'll be ideologues who won't.. but I can see a decent-enough handful of Labour doubters moving behind it, and sufficient non-ideological sceptics peeling off from the nutters. If backwoodsmen pick up from their local associations or business-minded constituents that people don't want a crisis, I could see some of them falling in.
Comments
May stating that failing to get her deal approved will prompt another referendum would definitely be a smart tactic, especially just ahead of the planned parliamentary vote. Sit back and watch the ERG start fighting with each other....if they want to wreck Brexit its up to them.
Now if only she hadn’t lost her majority...
https://order-order.com/2018/11/13/mcdonnell-calls-collective-ownership-land/
Going to make a no deal brexit seem like a walk in the park
Especially considering it turns out we are an island and trades quite a bit with this big thing called the continent which they had all been to on holiday but didn't realise what it was.
Even if this deals passes, it is mainly can kicking as far as long term trading relationship goes.
We will be arguing for years.
I'm not saying that will get it through, but if it doesn't and the cliff edge really is as cliffy and edgy as it could be, then any MP who voted against the deal will be blamed for driving the country to disaster.
This is Betrayal of her every word on Brexit.
The opinion leaders in her party are calling it so.
The Tory party members are 84% Leave.
Do you read your own graphs?
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062480154084163585
McDonnell is terrifying. I genuinely fear he will put us on the Venezuelan path.
https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1062451464180785155
We will probably still leave via no deal, but remain is at its highest chance right now.
Where in the opposition will the votes come from? They will need more than good vibes to support May.
But the point is it's very much the politicians, public figures, and controllers of media outlets who set the political conversation. The public rarely gets a meaningful look-in. The election of Corbyn is a good example of the stars aligning to accidentally give the public (or at least a section of it which isn't dominated by the political class) an actual say, and of course the result was both unexpected and drastic because what the media/politicians had been saying up until then was so far away from the public.
Looks like it might squeak through the cabinet. The mood music suggests that the backstop has been fudged.
If Remainers want to call leaving the SM, CU and Europeans courts BINO, then I think we’ve finally come full circle. Brexiteers and Remainers united after all!
As I have said before, getting rid of second chamber will Cobryn Government's version of Browns surprise BoE independence announcement two days after GE win.
Have fun all!
Maybe *very* popular when/if shoved to the top of the Labour agenda.
However, everything is speculation. This is a fast changing story and everything is up for grabs
I can see May finally being ousted after parliament votes to reject her deal, we have a series of votes on different options all failing while an interim leader of the Tories is made PM (yes I know this would require, I believe, an uncontested contender, in this scenario no doubt on the promise they would step down once this agreed for a contest), any potential summit is cancelled and then in the new year parliament reluctantly backs the same deal May put to them, under the new PM, with the price being a new GE in April, which Labour will win outright.
But my main gut is still on no deal - I don't have confidence this lot can agree a position on anything.
The average voter is neither an ERG No Deal diehard nor a Remainer reverse Brexit EUphile and will shrug their shoulders and see May trying to do the best of an impossible job and move on
Starts 5 short of a majority, less 5 Tory Remainers, less 24 hardcore Leavers, plus 3 Labour leavers, plus 18 Labour pragmatists, and some abstentions (no pairs?)
What tangible does Labour get out of it? May needs to offer something concrete, like a GE.
https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1062479862580023298?s=19
650 less 7 SF less Paisley (who is suspended) is 642, maj. 322; the Tories (including those without the whip ATM) are 317 I think.
The NI backstop was always a red herring, a bluff that needed calling. Worth the brinksmanship.
I cannot see it being popular though!
I hope everyone has a pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
@Jonathan underestimates the number of Labour MPs who might vote in the national interest. I think 15-25 is entirely possible.
Frankly, I think the cabinet is a harder sell than the commons. Remember, despite all the bluster, the Govt have lost one vote in the entire Brexit process. On a matter of process.
1. Against the odds, Dave comes up with a rather good deal, better than could have been hoped for when Lisbon was ratified. It's very effectively pre-rubbished by Steve Baker and heavy friends, so becomes universally disliked by people who haven't read it.
2. Dave gets ditched and the replacement is much worse.
3. The replacement PM nonetheless does her best, and against the odds comes up with a deal. Admittedly it's much worse than what we had with Dave's deal, but, still, we could live with it without too much economic damage. However, it's very effectively pre-rubbished by Steve Baker and heavy friends - who this time make no bones about the fact that they haven't actually read it.
Next stage: if the cycle continues, which seems likely, we are going to get an even worse PM that the present one, who will try to cobble together an even worse deal.
The cycle will perhaps only be broken by a complete collapse into a Corbyn government, which will at least have the merit of making us all aware of what we have thrown away,
On my numbers she is just short...
Good night all. This deal will not get through the commons.
Less so 2 years later.
Theresa is 2.5y in and still waving her 500page surrender doc.
But if she gets through tomorrow with no-one quitting, and she has the Express on-side and a neutral Mail, I do wonder whether MPs will start to perceive that maybe the view of the great British public is swinging round to "JFDI". And a narrative of "May Pulls It Off" would be attractive to fall in behind.
Of course there'll be ideologues who won't.. but I can see a decent-enough handful of Labour doubters moving behind it, and sufficient non-ideological sceptics peeling off from the nutters. If backwoodsmen pick up from their local associations or business-minded constituents that people don't want a crisis, I could see some of them falling in.