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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In October last year LAB had an average poll lead of 2.4% – this October Corbyn’s party is 3% behind
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It's not so much that it would dent his popularity in his target groups - although contrary to my expectations it appears to have done so - but that it would give the waverers he needs to win over another reason to ignore him.
What I wasn't expecting was for it to turn off his younger voting demographic to quite such an extent. They appear to have been much more aware of, and much more annoyed by, these issues than I thought they would be.
I’d also like to know what percentage of the electorate are ‘doubtful’ about both main parties. In other words, what are these 80-odd % of. I realise that statistically one can project from samples, but I very much doubt that many people are that enthusiastic about either party, or party leader at the moment.
I must say the the pre-Budget build-up and speculation is a little dull this year?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILolesm8kFY
Good luck for the next half term, hope it goes well.
It is a mistake, however, to think that does not mean that they don't have strong views about a range of issues, some of which Corbyn resonated with in the past. My kids and their friends find the idea of racism abhorrent. They are not so interested in feminism because they take equality as a given. They find any form of discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation distasteful and slightly weird. Animal welfare is a big issue and there are a surprising (to me) number of vegetarians and vegans.
They are of course connected to each other like no generation in history and have access to unlimited information (much of it lacking context) on their phones at all times. Whether there is a correlation between this connectedness and the lack of interest in traditional political groups is hard to say but I don't get the impression there is the same willingness to bend their own ideas to those of a group or conform. It will be interesting to see what they do with the world.
I wonder if McDonnell will have another outing for his Little Red Book today? Or has he realised that with the air leaking out of Corbyn's balloon, perhaps it is unwise to make twattish gestures when his own time might soon come?
Admittedly, that only faintly compares to the astonishment I would feel if he stood and won.
F1: a weird weekend. Lots of luck, good and bad. Some good judgement and bad judgement. Normally I either get a fluke or (this year) suffer unremitting pain at the hands of fate.
Finished ahead overall, so pleased about that. Wrote a bit of the post-race tosh last night but will finish it off this morning.
On-topic: small margins and the turbulence of modern politics could easily turn things this way or that.
McDonnell has the air of a man pacing around muttering "Oh, ffs...." all summer over the anti-semitism row - when he should have been making the case for slicing and dicing this Government.
If we had AV, PR or STV I think the polls would look very different - probably closer to Germany with massive fragmentation on both left and right.
It's a common trope of the fascist to present the enemy as both overwhelming and all powerful but also weak an snivelling.
Somebody upthread commented on the lack of leaks. That pattern was the ultimate indicator of both Brown's and Osborne's lack of political sense. They would leak all the good stuff in advance, and then be amazed when for the next several weeks or even months nobody mentioned the good stuff (as it wasn't 'news' any more) and instead focussed relentlessly on the bad stuff.
Leaking the bad stuff and getting it out of the way would have been smarter, but not as smart as keeping schtum.
The next election could easily be won by the party that motivates its supporters best. This is where Corbyn's Marmite qualities remain a priceless asset to the Tories. He's not currently enthusing his base but he sure as hell enthuses theirs.
But it hasn't.
The bottom line, though, is that Corbyn cements the Tories into power, which means that the Tories have no real incentive to face up to their many damaging deficiencies. Instead they get the consequence-free luxury of fighting each other in the knowledge that whatever happens they will win most seats at the next election. For the country as a whole it is nothing short of disastrous.
Being cynical, he obviously meant other peoples' lives, not his own.
Against any other political party, Labour’s problems with anti-semitism, misogyny and support for terrorist organisation isations would see it dead and buried in electoral terms. Against the clueless muppets that constitute the current Tory Party, it is still very much a political force to be reckoned with.
It's the racism row that we can't say that of.
The BBC's "line" is basically true. The industry of rearing animals to be killed for human food consumes huge amounts of water and energy to produce a vast amount of C02 and a relatively small amount of protein.
https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=old+man+and+the+sea+animation#id=5&vid=4d52ae42bdc3adcda9f81913096f118c&action=view
Letting the puritans dictate what you can eat is necessary to prevent the slaughter of the firstborn. Or don't you care about the greater good?
Otherwise 'the person who invented driverless cars' and 'foxes' would have been on there too!
That's not as easy to pin down as it sounds because there is some dispute about who won the elections between 1846 and 1865. There is a case to be made that it was the Conservatives, but that they were seldom able to hold power (two spells of minority government) as the other four blocks that eventually coalesced into the Liberal party outvoted them.
I think there's a healthy middle ground: as a species we have evolved to eat both meat and veg. But that doesn't mean we should eat only meat, and our meat consumption is far too great - perhaps partly because historically eating meat has been seen as a 'rich' thing or a treat.
Personally, I've eaten much less meat since I started going out with a vegetarian.
But another point should be made: Mrs J had been a vegetarian since her early teens, but started having a significant health issue that lasted quite a while. She is very careful with her diet, counts calories, vitamins etc to ensure she was getting everything her body requires. Someone recommended she tried eating fish. She did, and the problem went away. A year later she tried cutting out fish and replacing it with food supplements, but the problem recurred.
She is now a somewhat reluctant pescetarian: a small amount of fish once or twice a week (e.g. sardines) seems to keep the problem at bay. I've heard similar anecdotes from others.
Perhaps some people just cannot cope with long-term vegetarianism ...
That needs to change. But I don't think May has anything like the depth of support. What she has is the opposite - little passionate support among the membership, but broad sympathy in the wider public for her impossible position and a degree of respect (which I share) for gamely plugging on. Floating voters will IMO be quite annoyed if the Tories do dump her after a halfway respectable Brexit deal.
Though Bolsonaro won the Presidency the Workers' Party still won most seats in the lower house of the Brazilian Congress though winning 56 seats to 52 seats for Mr Bolsonaro's party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46013408
How about, 'he's not enthusing his electoral coalition?'
The novel protein source serious people are thinking about is insect. Cheap to raise and a phenomenal food conversion ratio.
Probably the influence of Lisa Simpson on the young.