CDU 28 SPD 20 Greens 19.5 AfD 12 FDP 7.5 Linke 6.5
The last Forschungruppe Whalen poll almost totally accurate if confirmed (Linke slightly overstated). Will the CDU-Green coalition still have a majority?
second round of polls in, show CDU Greens one seat short of control, so needs to be a 3 party coalition
CDU 27.4 SPD 19,8 Green 19,8 AfD 12,8 FDP 7.2 Linke 6.6
Is this like the national elections, near proportional over qualifying level.
In which case, with the sum above being 93.6%, close to 47% plus non aggression might do the job and Full Jamaica may not be needed. In order of possibility, the above could, in theory, work:
CDU / Green with SPD assent CDU / SPD with Green assent SPD / Green / Linke with CDU assent
None without problems, but all get round the FDP not being natural bedfellows with the centre left parties and the AfD not being potential bedfellows for anyone.
The FDP were in coalition with SPD 1969 - 1982 -ie Brandt and Schmidt Governments.
Yes and Genscher was a respected Foreign Secretary.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
The Hesse results close to the final polls but not quite the 28-20-20 split. AfD perhaps marginally stronger than the final polls but it's all fractions. The CDU-Green Coalition can continue with a tiny majority or we could have a CDU-SPD coalition. There don't seem to be many other options on the table - SDP/Green/FDP might work but I can't see it.
Evening. What about CDU/Green/FDP if CCU/Green falls short of a majority?
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
ZDF are calling a 124 seat Landtag as Linke, FDP and AfD have all come in and the CDU vote is down to 27.2% - the worst since 1966 and neither CDU/SPD nor CDU/Green have a majority (both options are one seat short).
ZDF are calling a 124 seat Landtag as Linke, FDP and AfD have all come in and the CDU vote is down to 27.2% - the worst since 1966 and neither CDU/SPD nor CDU/Green have a majority (both options are one seat short).
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
p.s. to add: It would be better (though still not good) to have directed subsidies to car manufacturers after we have left than to saddle the country with membership of the customs union.
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
I’m afraid you have made the classic error of most of the international press with that comment.
US-style identity politics does not resonate in Brazil. There has always been a large mixed-race population, less residential segregation, and less religious segregation than in the USA. This is not to deny the existence of racism - it’s clear from a review of the income and wealth distribution and the makeup of the country’s various legislatures. However, identity politics doesn’t really resonate beyond some university campuses and wealthy socially liberal areas like Ipanema. These are a pimple on the face of the Brazilian electorate.
Brazil is going to elect Bolsonaro because a clear majority, regardless of race, are sick of the sky-high crime rate and the corruption of the Workers’ Party. The fact that their candidate reached the second round made Bolsonaro’s victory inevitable.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
Evening all.
Weren’t May’s ‘interesting’ red lines all about waiving the greater good for a narrow interest, being her own survival as PM by pandering to a subsection of the Conservative party?
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
Evening all.
Weren’t May’s ‘interesting’ red lines all about waiving the greater good for a narrow interest, being her own survival as PM by pandering to a subsection of the Conservative party?
She's a remainer who undermined her leaver appointees, so I take it that you are referring to the remainers in her party.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
p.s. to add: It would be better (though still not good) to have directed subsidies to car manufacturers after we have left than to saddle the country with membership of the customs union.
That is a strange comparison. Of course we are in the customs union and have been for a long time, it is not as if it is an everyday burden. It might be of course that in the long run leaving would be better, but the idea that May is saddling the country with something it already has is a bit weird
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
Hitler had ties with many non-white leaders in the colonies/mandates during WW2. Subhash Bose in India, the Grand Mufti in Jerusalem, Rashid Ali in Iraq, etc.
p.s. to add: It would be better (though still not good) to have directed subsidies to car manufacturers after we have left than to saddle the country with membership of the customs union.
That is a strange comparison. Of course we are in the customs union and have been for a long time, it is not as if it is an everyday burden. It might be of course that in the long run leaving would be better, but the idea that May is saddling the country with something it already has is a bit weird
"it is not as if it is an everyday burden". How can you be sure that the common external tariff entails more trade creation than diversion? You might not realise something is a burden even if it is, because you haven't seen the alternative.
(edit) What is sure is that we would be unambiguously better off without any tariffs or duties.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
I’m afraid you have made the classic error of most of the international press with that comment.
US-style identity politics does not resonate in Brazil. There has always been a large mixed-race population, less residential segregation, and less religious segregation than in the USA. This is not to deny the existence of racism - it’s clear from a review of the income and wealth distribution and the makeup of the country’s various legislatures. However, identity politics doesn’t really resonate beyond some university campuses and wealthy socially liberal areas like Ipanema. These are a pimple on the face of the Brazilian electorate.
Brazil is going to elect Bolsonaro because a clear majority, regardless of race, are sick of the sky-high crime rate and the corruption of the Workers’ Party. The fact that their candidate reached the second round made Bolsonaro’s victory inevitable.
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
I’m afraid you have made the classic error of most of the international press with that comment.
US-style identity politics does not resonate in Brazil. There has always been a large mixed-race population, less residential segregation, and less religious segregation than in the USA. This is not to deny the existence of racism - it’s clear from a review of the income and wealth distribution and the makeup of the country’s various legislatures. However, identity politics doesn’t really resonate beyond some university campuses and wealthy socially liberal areas like Ipanema. These are a pimple on the face of the Brazilian electorate.
Brazil is going to elect Bolsonaro because a clear majority, regardless of race, are sick of the sky-high crime rate and the corruption of the Workers’ Party. The fact that their candidate reached the second round made Bolsonaro’s victory inevitable.
p.s. to add: It would be better (though still not good) to have directed subsidies to car manufacturers after we have left than to saddle the country with membership of the customs union.
That is a strange comparison. Of course we are in the customs union and have been for a long time, it is not as if it is an everyday burden. It might be of course that in the long run leaving would be better, but the idea that May is saddling the country with something it already has is a bit weird
"it is not as if it is an everyday burden". How can you be sure that the common external tariff entails more trade creation than diversion? You might not realise something is a burden even if it is, because you haven't seen the alternative.
(edit) What is sure is that we would be unambiguously better off without any tariffs or duties.
It will take us a very long time even to get the rates of tariffs and duties down post-Brexit to what they were pre-Brexit, given we effectively start again.
p.s. to add: It would be better (though still not good) to have directed subsidies to car manufacturers after we have left than to saddle the country with membership of the customs union.
That is a strange comparison. Of course we are in the customs union and have been for a long time, it is not as if it is an everyday burden. It might be of course that in the long run leaving would be better, but the idea that May is saddling the country with something it already has is a bit weird
"it is not as if it is an everyday burden". How can you be sure that the common external tariff entails more trade creation than diversion? You might not realise something is a burden even if it is, because you haven't seen the alternative.
(edit) What is sure is that we would be unambiguously better off without any tariffs or duties.
Clearly that is neither 'sure' nor 'unambiguous', hence the arguments persist. Would a UK steelworker feel 'unabiguously better off' if there were no tariffs on Chinese steel imports?
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
I’m afraid you have made the classic error of most of the international press with that comment.
US-style identity politics does not resonate in Brazil. There has always been a large mixed-race population, less residential segregation, and less religious segregation than in the USA. This is not to deny the existence of racism - it’s clear from a review of the income and wealth distribution and the makeup of the country’s various legislatures. However, identity politics doesn’t really resonate beyond some university campuses and wealthy socially liberal areas like Ipanema. These are a pimple on the face of the Brazilian electorate.
Brazil is going to elect Bolsonaro because a clear majority, regardless of race, are sick of the sky-high crime rate and the corruption of the Workers’ Party. The fact that their candidate reached the second round made Bolsonaro’s victory inevitable.
+1
De nada cara
Only thing is that is the typical absolute nonsense from you. Polls showed Lula would have likely won if he'd been allowed to run. And of course the PT have been out of power for a couple of years now, having been deposed in the 'soft coup' style beloved of US-backed right-wingers in latin america these days (see Paraguay and Honduras).
Bolsonaro is benefitting from a general 'eff-them-all' nihilistic anti-politics outburst. We'll see how rapidly the Brazilian people discover buyer's remorse.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
I thought that was a given. Weren’t there a series of meetings between car industry chiefs and May in autumn 2016?
Speaking at the Paris motor show last month, Carlos Ghosn told reporters future spending on Britain’s biggest car factory would depend on a guarantee of compensation if the UK struck a deal with European allies that led to tariffs on car exports.
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
Evening all.
Weren’t May’s ‘interesting’ red lines all about waiving the greater good for a narrow interest, being her own survival as PM by pandering to a subsection of the Conservative party?
She's a remainer who undermined her leaver appointees, so I take it that you are referring to the remainers in her party.
I am currently reading Tim Shipman's Fall Out. It's clear from the book that just ahead of the 2016 Tory Party conference May arbitarily adopted leaving the Customs Union and Single Market as red lines, without reference to, or discussion with, the Cabinet.
It was a typically Mayist piece of piss-poor judgement.
The guy was one of those sent a pipe bomb last week iirc.
Republicans should hang their heads in shame that they have let this divisive lunatic near the Whitehouse.
Not sure how that could be considered an incitement to try and bomb someone.
Obviously a tweet sent after the act can't be considered an incitement to that act. Otoh if you wanted to damp down accusations that you were complicit in or supportive of the act, probably best not to shit out tweets like that.
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
I’m afraid you have made the classic error of most of the international press with that comment.
US-style identity politics does not resonate in Brazil. There has always been a large mixed-race population, less residential segregation, and less religious segregation than in the USA. This is not to deny the existence of racism - it’s clear from a review of the income and wealth distribution and the makeup of the country’s various legislatures. However, identity politics doesn’t really resonate beyond some university campuses and wealthy socially liberal areas like Ipanema. These are a pimple on the face of the Brazilian electorate.
Brazil is going to elect Bolsonaro because a clear majority, regardless of race, are sick of the sky-high crime rate and the corruption of the Workers’ Party. The fact that their candidate reached the second round made Bolsonaro’s victory inevitable.
+1
De nada cara
Only thing is that is the typical absolute nonsense from you. Polls showed Lula would have likely won if he'd been allowed to run.
How does that dispute what he said? All that could suggest is that Lula's personal popularity was enough to overcome the negatives attached to PT.
I personally do not know enough about Brazilian politics to know if that is the case, but considering you called it 'absolute nonsense' it is odd that the point you term such wasn't actually contradicted by your own point.
Off topic, apologies ... but Brexit. There's a intriguing thought in Charles Moore's latest Spectator notes about why May appears determined to keep the UK in the customs union. "It would be very interesting to know if she has given some private undertakings to the British motor industry."
Nissan seemed temporarily calmed after she met with them way back (2016?)
The guy was one of those sent a pipe bomb last week iirc.
Republicans should hang their heads in shame that they have let this divisive lunatic near the Whitehouse.
Not sure how that could be considered an incitement to try and bomb someone.
Obviously a tweet sent after the act can't be considered an incitement to that act. Otoh if you wanted to damp down accusations that you were complicit in or supportive of the act, probably best not to shit out tweets like that.
Precisely. The tweet was sent after the bombs were sent and discovered.
I suspect Trump can't remember who they were sent to, rather than deliberate.
I doubt he can remember what happened five minutes ago, unless Fox tells him.
It does seem strange that such a serious allegation has not been (apparently) investigated.
Normally a rape victim is entitled to anonymity, but the alleged rapist is not.
In the Labour party, it seems the reverse holds true.
Why is the Labour party holding one of its internal investigations? Surely the proper response is for the Labour party to refer the entire matter to the police.
The environmental damage that is likely to be caused over the next five years by a Bolsonaro win, both in Brazil and in turn, globally, is pretty horrifying, at a time when we desperately need some moves in a positive direction on that front. The worst possible man for these times, really.
The guy was one of those sent a pipe bomb last week iirc.
Republicans should hang their heads in shame that they have let this divisive lunatic near the Whitehouse.
Not sure how that could be considered an incitement to try and bomb someone.
Obviously a tweet sent after the act can't be considered an incitement to that act. Otoh if you wanted to damp down accusations that you were complicit in or supportive of the act, probably best not to shit out tweets like that.
Precisely. The tweet was sent after the bombs were sent and discovered.
I suspect Trump can't remember who they were sent to, rather than deliberate.
I doubt he can remember what happened five minutes ago, unless Fox tells him.
If Donald Trump is reliant on Liam Fox to keep him on the straight and narrow, the planet's in worse trouble than I realised.
The guy was one of those sent a pipe bomb last week iirc.
Republicans should hang their heads in shame that they have let this divisive lunatic near the Whitehouse.
Not sure how that could be considered an incitement to try and bomb someone.
Obviously a tweet sent after the act can't be considered an incitement to that act. Otoh if you wanted to damp down accusations that you were complicit in or supportive of the act, probably best not to shit out tweets like that.
Precisely. The tweet was sent after the bombs were sent and discovered.
I suspect Trump can't remember who they were sent to, rather than deliberate.
I doubt he can remember what happened five minutes ago, unless Fox tells him.
If Donald Trump is reliant on Liam Fox to keep him on the straight and narrow, the planet's in worse trouble than I realised.
What a nightmare. Which circle of hell was this one?
The current coalition government of CDU and Greens has lost its majority but only by one seat according to the latest projections. They have 62 seats with 63 needed.
Something weird is going on when a country with a non-white majority is about to elect someone like Bolsonaro.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
I’m afraid you have made the classic error of most of the international press with that comment.
US-style identity politics does not resonate in Brazil. There has always been a large mixed-race population, less residential segregation, and less religious segregation than in the USA. This is not to deny the existence of racism - it’s clear from a review of the income and wealth distribution and the makeup of the country’s various legislatures. However, identity politics doesn’t really resonate beyond some university campuses and wealthy socially liberal areas like Ipanema. These are a pimple on the face of the Brazilian electorate.
Brazil is going to elect Bolsonaro because a clear majority, regardless of race, are sick of the sky-high crime rate and the corruption of the Workers’ Party. The fact that their candidate reached the second round made Bolsonaro’s victory inevitable.
+1
De nada cara
Only thing is that is the typical absolute nonsense from you. Polls showed Lula would have likely won if he'd been allowed to run. And of course the PT have been out of power for a couple of years now, having been deposed in the 'soft coup' style beloved of US-backed right-wingers in latin america these days (see Paraguay and Honduras).
Bolsonaro is benefitting from a general 'eff-them-all' nihilistic anti-politics outburst. We'll see how rapidly the Brazilian people discover buyer's remorse.
Ah yes, an ex-president being arrested for a corruption scandal running into the tens of billions of US dollars and the impeachment of a president by a democratically-elected legislature are definitely a ‘soft coup’. People on the left can never do wrong, can they? They mean well after all. Who cares about the real life consequences of mass corruption and wrecked public finances.
The polls significantly underestimated Bolsonaro’s performance in the first round. Lula would not have been a shoe-in by any means.
You are 25 times more likely to be murdered in Brazil than in the U.K. If Bolsonaro can get that rate down, I doubt very much there will be buyer’s remorse.
You seem quite excited about the racist, homophobic, climate-change-denying dictator-fancier winning, Andy.
I'm interested in elections in general wherever and whenever they are. I would be just as interested in the Brazilian election if a far-left candidate was expected to win.
The current coalition government of CDU and Greens has lost its majority but only by one seat according to the latest projections. They have 62 seats with 63 needed.
Sounds potentially worse than having a few less seats - the cracks can be papered over easier rather than. for the CDU at least, considering what can be done.
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
It does seem strange that such a serious allegation has not been (apparently) investigated.
Normally a rape victim is entitled to anonymity, but the alleged rapist is not.
In the Labour party, it seems the reverse holds true.
Why is the Labour party holding one of its internal investigations? Surely the proper response is for the Labour party to refer the entire matter to the police.
To be fair to Labour they say this in the report:
"We would strongly recommend that the police investigate the allegations of criminal actions that Bex Bailey has made."
Whether the police did anything is another matter.
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
The madness spreads...
Where will it all end.
Oh, the next time some suitably appealing seeming centrist wins it will be declared the madness has ended and there will be overreaction about the populist being thrashed - Macron for example - and then we'll get the next one.
Given the last two years, I would have said that's a fairly impressive performance by Haddad actually. Can't have been easy for him to gain traction when all three of his immediate predecessors are either in jail or awaiting trial on massive corruption charges, especially as he served in cabinet with two of them and was slated as running mate for Lula.
Does suggest also that large sections of Brazilian society have misgivings about Bolsonaro if most of the voters from other parties are rallying to his opponent.
Given the last two years, I would have said that's a fairly impressive performance by Haddad actually. Can't have been easy for him to gain traction when all three of his immediate predecessors are either in jail or awaiting trial on massive corruption charges, especially as he served in cabinet with two of them and was slated as running mate for Lula.
Does suggest also that large sections of Brazilian society have misgivings about Bolsonaro if most of the voters from other parties are rallying to his opponent.
I'm sure that is true, but it is hardly surprising, given what we've heard about Bolsonaro, that those misgivings existed. But given the negligible outcome his latest party generally had in elections, that he had such a huge lead in the first round (granted, in the absence of Lula) is surely the bigger story than that he did not improve on that first round all that much in the second. He'd already near maxed out.
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
The madness spreads...
Where will it all end.
I think madness would be electing the candidate from a party with a leading role in the world’s largest corruption scandal. The same party left the country with a huge budget deficit and the highest murder rate in history.
It does seem strange that such a serious allegation has not been (apparently) investigated.
Normally a rape victim is entitled to anonymity, but the alleged rapist is not.
In the Labour party, it seems the reverse holds true.
Why is the Labour party holding one of its internal investigations? Surely the proper response is for the Labour party to refer the entire matter to the police.
To be fair to Labour they say this in the report:
"We would strongly recommend that the police investigate the allegations of criminal actions that Bex Bailey has made."
Whether the police did anything is another matter.
It would seem to me that a police investigation should be the starting point.
It should occur before any internal Labour investigation, which might possibly prejudice a trial.
But, I suppose if the complainant is not willing for the allegation to be investigated by the police, then there is nothing the police can do.
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
Given the last two years, I would have said that's a fairly impressive performance by Haddad actually. Can't have been easy for him to gain traction when all three of his immediate predecessors are either in jail or awaiting trial on massive corruption charges, especially as he served in cabinet with two of them and was slated as running mate for Lula.
Does suggest also that large sections of Brazilian society have misgivings about Bolsonaro if most of the voters from other parties are rallying to his opponent.
Agreed, but pretty clear majority anyway. Interesting that the Greens in Hessen avoided the curse of being the minor party in government. I wonder what they did that other junior partners might copy?
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
He seems to be a deeply unpleasant man. I hope for their sakes he is able to deliver to the Brazilian people what they want from him. And those he defeated have serious questions to ask themselves of how it came to that point.
The left just keep getting pasted. Hope we can replicate that across all of Europe.
Misleading analysis I think. The populists, whether or left or right, are the ones who are prospering. For every Trump, an Obrador, for every Bolsonaro, a Maduro (on the back of huge electoral fraud, admittedly) for every Conte a Tsipras, for every Corbyn a Le Pen.
What these people have in common, whether of left or right, is a simple, easily understood prescription for all society's ills that doesn't sound the less attractive for being nonsensical, dishonest, unworkable or all the lot together. Whether it's immigrants or fat cats or Jews, the key thing is they always helpfully blame somebody else - so they can say everything can be put right by making said somebody else suffer.
And of course, even a prescription that is nonsensical, dishonest, unworkable or all the lot together can sometimes hit the mark. Corbyn is for example right that the system of student financing and corporate governance in this country is fundamentally broken. His proposed solutions (insofar as he has any) wouldn't actually help, but at least he has identified a real problem.
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
CDU+ AfD have been ahead of SPD + Greens in both Bavaria and Hesse and CDU + AfD + FDP were also ahead of the SPD + Greens + Linke in Hesse (Linke won no seats in Bavaria).
Just because the CDU refuses to touch the AfD with a bargepole at the moment does not mean the right is not ahead of the left, the Green rise has been largely just overtaking the SPD as the main party of the left
The left just keep getting pasted. Hope we can replicate that across all of Europe.
Competence is not found only on the right, and it is certainly not the case that all left wing governments have ever led to disaster. I hope undeserving governments get pasted whatever their purported alignments. And that whatever replaces them is not worse.
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
He seems to be a deeply unpleasant man. I hope for their sakes he is able to deliver to the Brazilian people what they want from him. And those he defeated have serious questions to ask themselves of how it came to that point.
Bolsonaro appears to be worse than Trump for me. I was reading prior to the first election results a few weeks ago his admiration for Brazil’s last military rule.
Vox did a bit on operation car wash and they were talking about 500,000 jobs were lost because of this corruption scandal and that before you get into the billions lost from the public purse and the fact a massive oil processing facility, and another 14/15 other big infrastructure projects like a nuclear power stations etc will now likely never be completed.
Half a million jobs...is it any wonder the people have gone all trumpy.
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
He seems to be a deeply unpleasant man. I hope for their sakes he is able to deliver to the Brazilian people what they want from him. And those he defeated have serious questions to ask themselves of how it came to that point.
Bolsonaro appears to be worse than Trump for me. I was reading prior to the first election results a few weeks ago his admiration for Brazil’s last military rule.
I don't know if the quotes are worse than the man as a whole, or will prove so in office, but some of them - on the military rule, on homosexuality etc - are way beyond most stuff Trump says. You could sense in some of the BBC write ups the bafflement at his popularity - particularly the point that polls indicated he was the top choice of women coming into this second round (if that materialised I do not know).
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
I doubt that many sympathise with him, they merely take issue with the notion that the alternative was much better.
Brazil has had a sequence of politicians lauded as saviours who have turned out to be every bit as crooked as their predecessors. So it's not hard to understand why the Brazilian electorate might be willing to vote for someone who would be unpalatable in a country like our own.
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
The madness spreads...
Where will it all end.
Oh, the next time some suitably appealing seeming centrist wins it will be declared the madness has ended and there will be overreaction about the populist being thrashed - Macron for example - and then we'll get the next one.
Trudeau is still likely to be re elected in Canada next year so centrists can take comfort in that
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
I'd be surprised if there are any Bolsonaro sympathisers on PB.
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
He seems to be a deeply unpleasant man. I hope for their sakes he is able to deliver to the Brazilian people what they want from him. And those he defeated have serious questions to ask themselves of how it came to that point.
Bolsonaro appears to be worse than Trump for me. I was reading prior to the first election results a few weeks ago his admiration for Brazil’s last military rule.
During its 21 years, Brazil’s military government is thought to have killed 421 people.
At Brazil’s current murder rate, more people are killed every 3 days.
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
He seems to be a deeply unpleasant man. I hope for their sakes he is able to deliver to the Brazilian people what they want from him. And those he defeated have serious questions to ask themselves of how it came to that point.
Bolsonaro appears to be worse than Trump for me. I was reading prior to the first election results a few weeks ago his admiration for Brazil’s last military rule.
During its 21 years, Brazil’s military government is thought to have killed 421 people.
At Brazil’s current murder rate, more people are killed every 3 days.
That comparison would only be valid if we could say *only* 421 people were murdered in Brazil in those 21 years. While I don't have the figures to hand, I'm assuming that's not the case.
Well, it doesn’t seem like the left are getting pasted in Germany if the recent elections are anything to go by. Wouldn’t have thought there’d be Bolsonaro sympathisers/ supporters on PB, but from the times I’ve lurked on here fairly recently it’s been getting a weird on here, to say the least.
He seems to be a deeply unpleasant man. I hope for their sakes he is able to deliver to the Brazilian people what they want from him. And those he defeated have serious questions to ask themselves of how it came to that point.
Bolsonaro appears to be worse than Trump for me. I was reading prior to the first election results a few weeks ago his admiration for Brazil’s last military rule.
During its 21 years, Brazil’s military government is thought to have killed 421 people.
At Brazil’s current murder rate, more people are killed every 3 days.
That comparison would only be valid if we could say *only* 421 people were murdered in Brazil in those 21 years. While I don't have the figures to hand, I'm assuming that's not the case.
In 1980, about 14,000 people were murdered in Brazil. It’s now 60,000 per year.
As a rule, anything that has the liberals upset is probably a net positive. The people need to take back power from the elites, even if it means dealing with undesirable candidates like the Brazilian one.
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
The madness spreads...
Where will it all end.
Trump v Sanders US election 2020?
Boris v Corbyn UK election 2022?
The former, no. Warren vs Trump is far more likely, and I have bet accordingly. Although also have some on Biden or Harris being Dem candidate, plus a nibble on Brown.
The latter would be my guess for 2022. I think too many people are writing Boris off at this stage.
Vox did a bit on operation car wash and they were talking about 500,000 jobs were lost because of this corruption scandal and that before you get into the billions lost from the public purse and the fact a massive oil processing facility, and another 14/15 other big infrastructure projects like a nuclear power stations etc will now likely never be completed.
Half a million jobs...is it any wonder the people have gone all trumpy.
I makes newspaper stories about MPs claiming for Mars Bars on their expenses look a bit silly.
As a rule, anything that has the liberals upset is probably a net positive. The people need to take back power from the elites, even if it means dealing with undesirable candidates like the Brazilian one.
As a rule (one of mine at any rate), judging the positivity or negativity of something primarily on whether it upsets those you dislike, is a recipe for disaster, and a path leading to a whole lot of partisan justification of awful things.
Edit: Perhaps things are so bad in Brazil that it is necessary, I don't know. But upsetting liberals, I presume there, is surely lower down on the scale of determining if it might be a net positive or not than many other things.
As a rule, anything that has the liberals upset is probably a net positive. The people need to take back power from the elites, even if it means dealing with undesirable candidates like the Brazilian one.
As a rule (one of mine at any rate), judging the positivity or negativity of something primarily on whether it upsets those you dislike, is a recipe for disaster, and a path leading to a whole lot of partisan justification of awful things.
As a rule, anything that has the liberals upset is probably a net positive. The people need to take back power from the elites, even if it means dealing with undesirable candidates like the Brazilian one.
As a rule (one of mine at any rate), judging the positivity or negativity of something primarily on whether it upsets those you dislike, is a recipe for disaster, and a path leading to a whole lot of partisan justification of awful things.
Perhaps things are so bad in Brazil that it is necessary. But upsetting liberals, I presume there, is surely lower down on the scale of determining if it might be a net positive or not than many other things.
I think liberals have held power everywhere for long enough and fucked everything up. They need to eat a lot of defeats until they actually look at why the people are turning against them.
As a rule, anything that has the liberals upset is probably a net positive. The people need to take back power from the elites, even if it means dealing with undesirable candidates like the Brazilian one.
In what sense is electing a right-wing thug 'the people taking back power from the elites'?
You'll be telling us next that Trump is 'one of the people' not a member of the US super-rich elite.
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
The madness spreads...
Where will it all end.
Trump v Sanders US election 2020?
Boris v Corbyn UK election 2022?
The former, no. Warren vs Trump is far more likely, and I have bet accordingly. Although also have some on Biden or Harris being Dem candidate, plus a nibble on Brown.
The latter would be my guess for 2022. I think too many people are writing Boris off at this stage.
I don’t see Warren being nominated. Harris has increased her chances of being nominated after her performance at the Kavanaugh hearings IMO. Plus, with some of her recent statements in the last several months she has clearly identified how left the Dem base is right now, even if she is a more establishment candidate. I feel like Biden was the right choice for 2016, but not for 2020.
Comments
Doesn’t apparently stop some claming Israel is somehow to blame - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6326091/Peer-sparks-fury-appearing-link-Israels-policies-Pittsburgh-massacre.html.
Nor is this -
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-uses-ndas-to-gag-staff-over-sex-claims-m58k5rcdj.
"Jair Bolsonaro on brink of victory in Brazil as fears for democracy grow
Opponents fear far-right candidate will plunge Brazil back into authoritarianism"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/28/jair-bolsonaro-on-brink-of-victory-in-brazil-as-fears-for-democracy-grow
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-28-LT-DE-HE.html?i=3
ZDF are calling a 124 seat Landtag as Linke, FDP and AfD have all come in and the CDU vote is down to 27.2% - the worst since 1966 and neither CDU/SPD nor CDU/Green have a majority (both options are one seat short).
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-28-LT-DE-HE.html?i=4
Ghosn said on Friday: “Following our productive meeting, I am confident the government will continue to ensure the UK remains a competitive place to do business.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/14/nissan-chief-executive-carlos-ghosn-meets-theresa-may-brexit-talks
May should be in trouble if she has given such a private undertaking to a particular firm. It would look as if she is prepared to waive the greater good for a narrow interest.
It would be better (though still not good) to have directed subsidies to car manufacturers after we have left than to saddle the country with membership of the customs union.
US-style identity politics does not resonate in Brazil. There has always been a large mixed-race population, less residential segregation, and less religious segregation than in the USA. This is not to deny the existence of racism - it’s clear from a review of the income and wealth distribution and the makeup of the country’s various legislatures. However, identity politics doesn’t really resonate beyond some university campuses and wealthy socially liberal areas like Ipanema. These are a pimple on the face of the Brazilian electorate.
Brazil is going to elect Bolsonaro because a clear majority, regardless of race, are sick of the sky-high crime rate and the corruption of the Workers’ Party. The fact that their candidate reached the second round made Bolsonaro’s victory inevitable.
Weren’t May’s ‘interesting’ red lines all about waiving the greater good for a narrow interest, being her own survival as PM by pandering to a subsection of the Conservative party?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUpbOliTHJY
I did not laugh
I did not laugh
Pause
I laughed.
How can you be sure that the common external tariff entails more trade creation than diversion? You might not realise something is a burden even if it is, because you haven't seen the alternative.
(edit) What is sure is that we would be unambiguously better off without any tariffs or duties.
PS. Nice thread, if a little mathematical
https://newsroom.ibm.com/2018-10-28-IBM-To-Acquire-Red-Hat-Completely-Changing-The-Cloud-Landscape-And-Becoming-Worlds-1-Hybrid-Cloud-Provider
' A Labour activist has said she was raped at a party event and that a senior Labour official discouraged her from reporting the attack.
Bex Bailey said she was told reporting the 2011 incident could "damage" her and that she was given no advice on what she should do next.
She told the BBC she had waived her anonymity to urge changes to the way such cases are handled.
Labour said it had launched an independent investigation. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41821671
Bolsonaro is benefitting from a general 'eff-them-all' nihilistic anti-politics outburst. We'll see how rapidly the Brazilian people discover buyer's remorse.
It was a typically Mayist piece of piss-poor judgement.
I personally do not know enough about Brazilian politics to know if that is the case, but considering you called it 'absolute nonsense' it is odd that the point you term such wasn't actually contradicted by your own point.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live
I suspect Trump can't remember who they were sent to, rather than deliberate.
I doubt he can remember what happened five minutes ago, unless Fox tells him.
Normally a rape victim is entitled to anonymity, but the alleged rapist is not.
In the Labour party, it seems the reverse holds true.
Why is the Labour party holding one of its internal investigations? Surely the proper response is for the Labour party to refer the entire matter to the police.
https://www.redetv.uol.com.br/aovivo/
http://play.tv/live-tv/349/tv-record/
https://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2018/cobertura-votacao-apuracao/segundo-turno
https://placar.eleicoes.uol.com.br/2018/2turno/
83% counted
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1056663857568120832
The polls significantly underestimated Bolsonaro’s performance in the first round. Lula would not have been a shoe-in by any means.
You are 25 times more likely to be murdered in Brazil than in the U.K. If Bolsonaro can get that rate down, I doubt very much there will be buyer’s remorse.
Bolsonaro 55.7%
Haddad 44.3 %
Or do you mean they'll be pissed-off?
But maybe I'm being unfair and they're just a bit useless.
Haddad 44.30%
88% in
Looks like Bolsonaro has won and the 2 largest nations in Latin America, Brazil and Mexico have now both elected populists to be their President this year, Bolsonaro in Brazil from the hard right and Lopez Obrador in Mexico from the populist left
"We would strongly recommend that the police investigate the allegations of criminal actions that Bex Bailey has made."
Whether the police did anything is another matter.
Where will it all end.
Does suggest also that large sections of Brazilian society have misgivings about Bolsonaro if most of the voters from other parties are rallying to his opponent.
It should occur before any internal Labour investigation, which might possibly prejudice a trial.
But, I suppose if the complainant is not willing for the allegation to be investigated by the police, then there is nothing the police can do.
Presumably that is what has happened.
It is a strange story.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1056668376955797504
What these people have in common, whether of left or right, is a simple, easily understood prescription for all society's ills that doesn't sound the less attractive for being nonsensical, dishonest, unworkable or all the lot together. Whether it's immigrants or fat cats or Jews, the key thing is they always helpfully blame somebody else - so they can say everything can be put right by making said somebody else suffer.
And of course, even a prescription that is nonsensical, dishonest, unworkable or all the lot together can sometimes hit the mark. Corbyn is for example right that the system of student financing and corporate governance in this country is fundamentally broken. His proposed solutions (insofar as he has any) wouldn't actually help, but at least he has identified a real problem.
Just because the CDU refuses to touch the AfD with a bargepole at the moment does not mean the right is not ahead of the left, the Green rise has been largely just overtaking the SPD as the main party of the left
Half a million jobs...is it any wonder the people have gone all trumpy.
Boris v Corbyn UK election 2022?
Brazil has had a sequence of politicians lauded as saviours who have turned out to be every bit as crooked as their predecessors. So it's not hard to understand why the Brazilian electorate might be willing to vote for someone who would be unpalatable in a country like our own.
Join the club!
At Brazil’s current murder rate, more people are killed every 3 days.
The latter would be my guess for 2022. I think too many people are writing Boris off at this stage.
Edit: Perhaps things are so bad in Brazil that it is necessary, I don't know. But upsetting liberals, I presume there, is surely lower down on the scale of determining if it might be a net positive or not than many other things.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1056667173865828354
This kind of hyperbole just adds to the thing. Socialism or Fascism are the only choices folks, according to a leading commentator. Jeez.
You'll be telling us next that Trump is 'one of the people' not a member of the US super-rich elite.