I think I understand what John Major is doing. He wants May to reverse Brexit so that she can lose the next election so spectacularly that everyone will forget that he lead the Conservative Party to a historic disaster himself in 1997.
Why, oh why, are we expected to listen to and value the opinions of a man who was an utter failure as PM? Surely his record of failure would suggest that we should do the opposite of whatever he thinks?
I have no brief with the peoples vote but your conspiracy idea is for the birds
Major is no different from the many of the elite who are trying to stop Brexit but they will not succeed. However, equally your hard Brexit will not succeed. You are the two ends of the argument and both will fail as compromise wins the day
Do you happen to have a chart setting out who comprises the elite? Is it just people who take the view that Brexit is at best unwise and as it appears to be happening fundamentally deranged or are there other tests?
The best known include Blair, Mandelson, Adonis, Major, Hesseltine but there are many others
"“There may be addendums, put into the rulebook, which weaken the force of the IHRA examples” said another NEC member.)"
So they will adopt the definition and examples and then include something else as a get-out clause for their friends.
Won't satisfy anyone.
Someone (Mike?) pointed out yesterday that apart from the internal divisions being sharpened and highlighted by this, there's also a huge opportunity cost. Labour has spent all summer fighting itself over an issue that most of the public think is, essentially, a side-issue other than in what it might reveal about attitude. It could have been putting far more pressure on the government either to dance to its tune on, say, a second referendum (though of course it would need a coherent tune first), or alternatively, simply exposing and needling the government's own divisions. By engaging in abstruse internal debate, it's missing out on its main job. But then engaging in abstruse debate has been the hobby of the far left for decades.
And on the plus side they have wasted much less time debating Brexit.
I think I understand what John Major is doing. He wants May to reverse Brexit so that she can lose the next election so spectacularly that everyone will forget that he lead the Conservative Party to a historic disaster himself in 1997.
Why, oh why, are we expected to listen to and value the opinions of a man who was an utter failure as PM? Surely his record of failure would suggest that we should do the opposite of whatever he thinks?
I have no brief with the peoples vote but your conspiracy idea is for the birds
Major is no different from the many of the elite who are trying to stop Brexit but they will not succeed. However, equally your hard Brexit will not succeed. You are the two ends of the argument and both will fail as compromise wins the day
Do you happen to have a chart setting out who comprises the elite? Is it just people who take the view that Brexit is at best unwise and as it appears to be happening fundamentally deranged or are there other tests?
The best known include Blair, Mandelson, Adonis, Major, Hesseltine but there are many others
You have two prime ministers, a deputy PM and two other cabinet ministers there. They would surely be part of the elite in any definition. I'm not sure that's particularly helpful.
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better.
Sorry if this is going to sound like horse, bolt and stable advice but correct form free weights are miles better than machines, as those tend to massively restrict range of motion.
It was when I was lifting a 1kg weight that I felt the pain. God knows what caused it. Irritatingly, I can’t even swim now, other than on my back kicking my legs like a child. I think I’ll stick to walking and shelve any ambition to have Megan Markle-like upper arms.......
Rest, ice, nurofen, and stay off the machines, and it'll probably have gone in a fortnight.
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better.
Sorry if this is going to sound like horse, bolt and stable advice but correct form free weights are miles better than machines, as those tend to massively restrict range of motion.
It was when I was lifting a 1kg weight that I felt the pain. God knows what caused it. Irritatingly, I can’t even swim now, other than on my back kicking my legs like a child. I think I’ll stick to walking and shelve any ambition to have Megan Markle-like upper arms.......
Rest, ice, nurofen, and stay off the machines, and it'll probably have gone in a fortnight.
If only. That’s pretty much what I have been doing. I am practically addicted to Nurofen.
This would be the Japan which is involved in increasingly confrontational disagreements with China about sundry islands in the Pacific? Well, that's...brave.
Something posted something the other day from a Japanese diplomatic bigwig explaining how Brexit would be a triumphant success and absolutely nobody would be laughing at Britain's ridiculous predicament at all in any way if they'd just send a load of military kit over here to help keep China in its box.
"Irish border question must be solved by UK, not EU, says Sweden
Swedish EU affairs minister Ann Linde says it is regrettable issue has become ‘a matter of ideology’ in UK"
She also is reported as saying:
The Swedish minister for EU affairs and trade, Ann Linde, said it was regrettable the Conservative party had made such an “extreme ideological” issue of the need to maintain the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit.
I thought it was the EU and Dublin who had made maintain[ing] the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit....an “extreme ideological” issue
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better.
Sorry if this is going to sound like horse, bolt and stable advice but correct form free weights are miles better than machines, as those tend to massively restrict range of motion.
It was when I was lifting a 1kg weight that I felt the pain. God knows what caused it. Irritatingly, I can’t even swim now, other than on my back kicking my legs like a child. I think I’ll stick to walking and shelve any ambition to have Megan Markle-like upper arms.......
Rest, ice, nurofen, and stay off the machines, and it'll probably have gone in a fortnight.
That is the classic advice and in my case has helped to a degree but as I cannot take ibuprofen, the doctor prescribed co- codamol which helped but I only took it for a few days at a time
My impression is that to a certain extent it applies to our society as a whole: people in their 60s or even 70s now seem a spry as those in their 50s were in my youth.
This is all anecdotal evidence of course, and only of slowing the ageing process, not stopping it.
I agree with that but I am talking mid seventies and to your eighties.
There is a marked downturn in mobility and stamina in most everyone I know in this age group
I've seen some studies on this - essentially people are living longer AND people are entering a period of physical decline later - it's not, as was once feared, that most people live longer but have 20 years of physical misery. But of course BigG is right that it's just a shift, and age catches us all in the end. Most people are OK until something drastic happens, rather than a gradual decline.
Anecdotally, I'm 68 and was recently promoted to a more demanding job, as well as still doing another job on the side; my parents had both retired by now. I don't sleep as long as I used to, but otherwise I don't notice much change. There is however a great deal of luck in it and I'm aware it won't last forever/
The key I think is to remain both physically and mentally active for as long as possible. My mother had some physical infirmity in the last couple of years of her life but it was only until her last year that she eventually got a stick as she refused to accept that she was getting old. Her mind was as sharp as a pin until the day she died. And she - and her children - were blessed that she died in her sleep in her own bed, with no pain or humiliation or degradation (bed pans etc). And, yes, there is luck involved too. But some people seem to diminish when they retire and shrink into themselves, which cannot be good.
Few weeks ago I met a couple who were just about to retire and wondered what they were going to do. I asked where they lived..... I thought it was somewhere not too far from...... and indeed it was. Plenty of clubs and activities for the retired there, I said. We don’t join clubs and such he rep[lied.
"Irish border question must be solved by UK, not EU, says Sweden
Swedish EU affairs minister Ann Linde says it is regrettable issue has become ‘a matter of ideology’ in UK"
She also is reported as saying:
The Swedish minister for EU affairs and trade, Ann Linde, said it was regrettable the Conservative party had made such an “extreme ideological” issue of the need to maintain the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit.
I thought it was the EU and Dublin who had made maintain[ing] the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit....an “extreme ideological” issue
Leaving aside the ideology for a moment, how would an internal border with RUK benefit Northern Ireland? It's trade with RUK is far greater than with the Irish Republic.
My impression is that to a certain extent it applies to our society as a whole: people in their 60s or even 70s now seem a spry as those in their 50s were in my youth.
This is all anecdotal evidence of course, and only of slowing the ageing process, not stopping it.
I agree with that but I am talking mid seventies and to your eighties.
There is a marked downturn in mobility and stamina in most everyone I know in this age group
I've seen some studies on this - essentially people are living longer AND people are entering a period of physical decline later - it's not, as was once feared, that most people live longer but have 20 years of physical misery. But of course BigG is right that it's just a shift, and age catches us all in the end. Most people are OK until something drastic happens, rather than a gradual decline.
Anecdotally, I'm 68 and was recently promoted to a more demanding job, as well as still doing another job on the side; my parents had both retired by now. I don't sleep as long as I used to, but otherwise I don't notice much change. There is however a great deal of luck in it and I'm aware it won't last forever/
The key I think is to remain both physically and mentally active for as long as possible. My mother had some physical infirmity in the last couple of years of her life but it was only until her last year that she eventually got a stick as she refused to accept that she was getting old. Her mind was as sharp as a pin until the day she died. And she - and her children - were blessed that she died in her sleep in her own bed, with no pain or humiliation or degradation (bed pans etc). And, yes, there is luck involved too. But some people seem to diminish when they retire and shrink into themselves, which cannot be good.
Look on the bright side, we may not live as long as we were expecting...
This would be the Japan which is involved in increasingly confrontational disagreements with China about sundry islands in the Pacific? Well, that's...brave.
Something posted something the other day from a Japanese diplomatic bigwig explaining how Brexit would be a triumphant success and absolutely nobody would be laughing at Britain's ridiculous predicament at all in any way if they'd just send a load of military kit over here to help keep China in its box.
Japan apparently has 124 ships so we could probably send them a couple of dozen admirals if they needed them.
"Irish border question must be solved by UK, not EU, says Sweden
Swedish EU affairs minister Ann Linde says it is regrettable issue has become ‘a matter of ideology’ in UK"
She also is reported as saying:
The Swedish minister for EU affairs and trade, Ann Linde, said it was regrettable the Conservative party had made such an “extreme ideological” issue of the need to maintain the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit.
I thought it was the EU and Dublin who had made maintain[ing] the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit....an “extreme ideological” issue
Leaving aside the ideology for a moment, how would an internal border with RUK benefit Northern Ireland? It's trade with RUK is far greater than with the Irish Republic.
You think the DUP should use its position to force the UK as a whole to stay in the single market and customs union?
"Irish border question must be solved by UK, not EU, says Sweden
Swedish EU affairs minister Ann Linde says it is regrettable issue has become ‘a matter of ideology’ in UK"
She also is reported as saying:
The Swedish minister for EU affairs and trade, Ann Linde, said it was regrettable the Conservative party had made such an “extreme ideological” issue of the need to maintain the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit.
I thought it was the EU and Dublin who had made maintain[ing] the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit....an “extreme ideological” issue
Leaving aside the ideology for a moment, how would an internal border with RUK benefit Northern Ireland? It's trade with RUK is far greater than with the Irish Republic.
You think the DUP should use its position to force the UK as a whole to stay in the single market and customs union?
State schools have been accused of “gaming the system” by excluding thousands of badly performing students in the months before their GCSE exams.
Almost 13,000 teenagers did not have results recorded in league tables last year despite appearing on their schools’ rolls a year earlier, an investigation by The Times has found. The number of pupils removed in the months before exams had been just over 9,000 in each of the previous two years.
Don't we have this story every year, a few days after the photos of girls jumping? It is a natural consequence of league tables and the government's demand that all schools must be above average.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
State schools have been accused of “gaming the system” by excluding thousands of badly performing students in the months before their GCSE exams.
Almost 13,000 teenagers did not have results recorded in league tables last year despite appearing on their schools’ rolls a year earlier, an investigation by The Times has found. The number of pupils removed in the months before exams had been just over 9,000 in each of the previous two years.
Don't we have this story every year, a few days after the photos of girls jumping? It is a natural consequence of league tables and the government's demand that all schools must be above average.
Not exactly new. My state grammar school wouldn’t enter me for French O-Level after I scored just 13% in the mock. This was in 1983!
My impression is that to a certain extent it applies to our society as a whole: people in their 60s or even 70s now seem a spry as those in their 50s were in my youth.
This is all anecdotal evidence of course, and only of slowing the ageing process, not stopping it.
I agree with that but I am talking mid seventies and to your eighties.
There is a marked downturn in mobility and stamina in most everyone I know in this age group
I've seen some studies on this - essentially people are living longer AND people are entering a period of physical decline later - it's not, as was once feared, that most people live longer but have 20 years of physical misery. But of course BigG is right that it's just a shift, and age catches us all in the end. Most people are OK until something drastic happens, rather than a gradual decline.
Anecdotally, I'm 68 and was recently promoted to a more demanding job, as well as still doing another job on the side; my parents had both retired by now. I don't sleep as long as I used to, but otherwise I don't notice much change. There is however a great deal of luck in it and I'm aware it won't last forever/
The key I think is to remain both physically and mentally active for as long as possible. My mother had some physical infirmity in the last couple of years of her life but it was only until her last year that she eventually got a stick as she refused to accept that she was getting old. Her mind was as sharp as a pin until the day she died. And she - and her children - were blessed that she died in her sleep in her own bed, with no pain or humiliation or degradation (bed pans etc). And, yes, there is luck involved too. But some people seem to diminish when they retire and shrink into themselves, which cannot be good.
Look on the bright side, we may not live as long as we were expecting...
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
State schools have been accused of “gaming the system” by excluding thousands of badly performing students in the months before their GCSE exams.
Almost 13,000 teenagers did not have results recorded in league tables last year despite appearing on their schools’ rolls a year earlier, an investigation by The Times has found. The number of pupils removed in the months before exams had been just over 9,000 in each of the previous two years.
Don't we have this story every year, a few days after the photos of girls jumping? It is a natural consequence of league tables and the government's demand that all schools must be above average.
The are saying the numbers are significantly larger.
I am willing to criticise her for her numerous failings, but bad dancing.... that would be hypocrisy of the highest order.
I can’t dance either. She’s giving it a go to be polite to her hosts. Unkind to criticise her for that.
We are all, in one way or another, hypocrites. If hypocrisy stopped us commenting, this site would have to shut down immediately.
I can't dance either, so I'm even more inclined to give her credit for honouring her hosts.
I normally lurk & don't post much, thinking I haven't got anything interesting to say. But sometimes I ascribe it to lacking the essential ability to keep repeating myself in different words.
Good morning, everyone.
Yes, we should file that as trivia, like Corbyn's shirt button (I expect he thinks nostalgically about when that was the thing people were criticising). If she'd refused to have a go she'd be criticised for that instead.
Politicians should avoid, if at all possible, dancing solo. It never looks good - think Justin Trudeau, who of all current politicians you might think would be able to pull it off; he didn't. But sometimes, you just can't avoid it without looking churlish and disrespectful.
So, things modern politicians should never do:
- solo dancing
- eat bacon sarnies
- hold a banana
- hold Donald Trump's hand
- punch members of the public (unless John Prescott)
- invade foreign countries on the basis of a dodgy dossier
- have an opinion
Lol. But no, having opinions is a good thing. The opinions themselves may be mad or bad but that's a different thing.
As an aside, the bacon in the sandwich was a detail, and not the pertinent one.
I think the presence of bacon in the sandwich is highly pertinent. It can be problematic to get a clean bite through a slice of bacon, and if you don't you end up with a piece of bacon flapping out of your mouth like an oversize tongue. Hence the struggle to take a bite. EdM would have had no such difficulties if he had gone for a sausage sandwich - always my choice in such breakfast bap situations.
State schools have been accused of “gaming the system” by excluding thousands of badly performing students in the months before their GCSE exams.
Almost 13,000 teenagers did not have results recorded in league tables last year despite appearing on their schools’ rolls a year earlier, an investigation by The Times has found. The number of pupils removed in the months before exams had been just over 9,000 in each of the previous two years.
Don't we have this story every year, a few days after the photos of girls jumping? It is a natural consequence of league tables and the government's demand that all schools must be above average.
Not exactly new. My state grammar school wouldn’t enter me for French O-Level after I scored just 13% in the mock. This was in 1983!
At my similar school, in the 50’s we studied 9 subjects in the 4th & early 5th years, took an exam in all of them after Christmas in the 5th and dropped our worst one.
Mr. Urquhart, people mostly think whatever they do is normal then orient others as puritanical or hedonistic (or left or right wing, for that matter) based on themselves.
We make our nations the centre of maps, and ourselves the centre of normality around which all others revolve. It's a natural, if self-indulgent and often wrong, approach to the world.
I think I understand what John Major is doing. He wants May to reverse Brexit so that she can lose the next election so spectacularly that everyone will forget that he lead the Conservative Party to a historic disaster himself in 1997.
Why, oh why, are we expected to listen to and value the opinions of a man who was an utter failure as PM? Surely his record of failure would suggest that we should do the opposite of whatever he thinks?
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
If May cannot get a Deal through due to the ERG and Corbyn she may call a Deal or No Deal referendum which the ERG and Labour Leave rebels would support with the No Deal option
I am willing to criticise her for her numerous failings, but bad dancing.... that would be hypocrisy of the highest order.
I can’t dance either. She’s giving it a go to be polite to her hosts. Unkind to criticise her for that.
We are all, in one way or another, hypocrites. If hypocrisy stopped us commenting, this site would have to shut down immediately.
I can't dance either, so I'm even more inclined to give her credit for honouring her hosts.
I normally lurk & don't post much, thinking I haven't got anything interesting to say. But sometimes I ascribe it to lacking the essential ability to keep repeating myself in different words.
Good morning, everyone.
Yes, we should file that as trivia, like Corbyn's shirt button (I expect he thinks nostalgically about when that was the thing people were criticising). If she'd refused to have a go she'd be criticised for that instead.
Politicians should avoid, if at all possible, dancing solo. It never looks good - think Justin Trudeau, who of all current politicians you might think would be able to pull it off; he didn't. But sometimes, you just can't avoid it without looking churlish and disrespectful.
So, things modern politicians should never do:
- solo dancing
- eat bacon sarnies
- hold a banana
- hold Donald Trump's hand
- punch members of the public (unless John Prescott)
- invade foreign countries on the basis of a dodgy dossier
- have an opinion
Lol. But no, having opinions is a good thing. The opinions themselves may be mad or bad but that's a different thing.
As an aside, the bacon in the sandwich was a detail, and not the pertinent one.
I think the presence of bacon in the sandwich is highly pertinent. It can be problematic to get a clean bite through a slice of bacon, and if you don't you end up with a piece of bacon flapping out of your mouth like an oversize tongue. Hence the struggle to take a bite. EdM would have had no such difficulties if he had gone for a sausage sandwich - always my choice in such breakfast bap situations.
"Irish border question must be solved by UK, not EU, says Sweden
Swedish EU affairs minister Ann Linde says it is regrettable issue has become ‘a matter of ideology’ in UK"
She also is reported as saying:
The Swedish minister for EU affairs and trade, Ann Linde, said it was regrettable the Conservative party had made such an “extreme ideological” issue of the need to maintain the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit.
I thought it was the EU and Dublin who had made maintain[ing] the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit....an “extreme ideological” issue
The UK have been quite clear that we have no intention of building a border.
I think I understand what John Major is doing. He wants May to reverse Brexit so that she can lose the next election so spectacularly that everyone will forget that he lead the Conservative Party to a historic disaster himself in 1997.
Why, oh why, are we expected to listen to and value the opinions of a man who was an utter failure as PM? Surely his record of failure would suggest that we should do the opposite of whatever he thinks?
For him, this is personal.
his record on |Europe is poor. He led us into the ERM disaster and should have held a referendum on Maastricht. He probably would have won it.
I don't understand the story at all. Was that money spent while he owned the property? If so, it seems irrelevant whether he sold it or not- whether it's cash or an asset, it's part of his net wealth
The odds are Trump will be re elected in 2020 unless the economy nosedives, after all only 1 President in the last 50 years has failed to be re elected after only one term of his party in the White House, Jimmy Carter in 1980.
However the man who beat Carter, Ronald Reagan, had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to establishment candidate Gerald Ford who then went onto lose the general election to Carter. Bernie Sanders, who narrowly lost the 2016 Democratic primaries to establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, will hope he is the Reagan of 2020
Sanders will be 79 in 2020. Even if he's still alive, he won't be standing. No way on earth.
In light of your comment about Carter, are you advising Trump to avoid rabbits? Perhaps especially Bunnies?
Oh Sanders certainly will be running (Reagan of course was over 70 for most of his presidency) and will be one of the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination alongside Warren and Biden.
I think of the oldsters, Warren will bear Sanders, and Biden would likely beat both if he commits to running. But it's equally likely a fresh face will emerge as frontrunner.
US parties out of the White House for only a term and facing an incumbent president tend to nominate older, more experienced candidates e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson etc
I am willing to criticise her for her numerous failings, but bad dancing.... that would be hypocrisy of the highest order.
I can’t dance either. She’s giving it a go to be polite to her hosts. Unkind to criticise her for that.
We are all, in one way or another, hypocrites. If hypocrisy stopped us commenting, this site would have to shut down immediately.
I can't dance either, so I'm even more inclined to give her credit for honouring her hosts.
I normally lurk & don't post much, thinking I haven't got anything interesting to say. But sometimes I ascribe it to lacking the essential ability to keep repeating myself in different words.
Good morning, everyone.
Yes, we should file that as trivia, like Corbyn's shirt button (I expect he thinks nostalgically about when that was the thing people were criticising). If she'd refused to have a go she'd be criticised for that instead.
Politicians should avoid, if at all possible, dancing solo. It never looks good - think Justin Trudeau, who of all current politicians you might think would be able to pull it off; he didn't. But sometimes, you just can't avoid it without looking churlish and disrespectful.
So, things modern politicians should never do:
- solo dancing
- eat bacon sarnies
- hold a banana
- hold Donald Trump's hand
- punch members of the public (unless John Prescott)
- invade foreign countries on the basis of a dodgy dossier
Which former politician's autobiography contains this quote?:
"I am very typically British. I like to have time and comfort in the loo. The bathroom is an important room, and I couldn't live in a culture that doesn't respect it."
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
State schools have been accused of “gaming the system” by excluding thousands of badly performing students in the months before their GCSE exams.
Almost 13,000 teenagers did not have results recorded in league tables last year despite appearing on their schools’ rolls a year earlier, an investigation by The Times has found. The number of pupils removed in the months before exams had been just over 9,000 in each of the previous two years.
Don't we have this story every year, a few days after the photos of girls jumping? It is a natural consequence of league tables and the government's demand that all schools must be above average.
Not exactly new. My state grammar school wouldn’t enter me for French O-Level after I scored just 13% in the mock. This was in 1983!
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
Mark Lilla argues in his new book that the Dems can't win until they work their way past identity politic obsessions and start to articulate a vision for the whole of the US, based on what it means (rights and duties etc) to be a citizen.
He also strongly argues that Dems have lost touch with the fly over states and their activist base of campus and metro area residents must try and engage and empathise with, say, a backwoods dweller in Virginia. The obsession with identity groups and movements has left blue collar and union activists lost and out of touch within the party, and crucially, there has been a failure to try and win at local level.
What do the Dems envision the US should look like in ten years time?
His summary:
"Less marches and more mayors."
I disagree profoundly with that.
It should be fewer marches.
My mistake.
I thought you were quoting!
not quite. i should have been clearer.
he actually writes, "the age of movement politics is over, at least for now. We need no more marchers. We need more mayors..."
Most marches just end up making the marchers feel better. I’m struggling to think of one that actually changed something although I’m sure that that’s down to my ignorance.
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better. I will be going for a scan shortly as I may have torn a tendon. It should, once the right diagnosis has been made, be curable.
But experiences like that don’t make it any easier to do what I know I should. Oddly, I can still do pretty vigorous gardening, which keeps me flexible and strong.
Speaking as a part-owner of a (Crossfit) gym, that suggests that somewhere in your medical or training team someone may not have sufficient expertise, or there was an unfortunate accident or oversight (which might speak of insufficient supervision).
This would be the Japan which is involved in increasingly confrontational disagreements with China about sundry islands in the Pacific? Well, that's...brave.
To paraphrase an under rated political giant: 'China should just shut up and go away'.
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better.
Sorry if this is going to sound like horse, bolt and stable advice but correct form free weights are miles better than machines, as those tend to massively restrict range of motion.
It was when I was lifting a 1kg weight that I felt the pain. God knows what caused it. Irritatingly, I can’t even swim now, other than on my back kicking my legs like a child. I think I’ll stick to walking and shelve any ambition to have Megan Markle-like upper arms.......
Rest, ice, nurofen, and stay off the machines, and it'll probably have gone in a fortnight.
If only. That’s pretty much what I have been doing. I am practically addicted to Nurofen.....
The answer is Beto O'Rourke, now only 1% behind Ted Cruz.
The "experienced" part would seems a bit weak. That said, it opens up a fun electoral map of leaving Trump with all his wins in the Rust Belt, and winning by flipping Texas.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
It will end up with a vote that offers deal or crashout as the only two options.
The opposition parties need to think carefully about just how much fire they’re prepared to play.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
This would be the Japan which is involved in increasingly confrontational disagreements with China about sundry islands in the Pacific? Well, that's...brave.
Something posted something the other day from a Japanese diplomatic bigwig explaining how Brexit would be a triumphant success and absolutely nobody would be laughing at Britain's ridiculous predicament at all in any way if they'd just send a load of military kit over here to help keep China in its box.
Japan apparently has 124 ships so we could probably send them a couple of dozen admirals if they needed them.
I think it's rather more about trying to get into the contract for their next generation fighter. Lockheed is rather formidable competition, though, now it's been decided to share the F22 tech with Japan.
I am willing to criticise her for her numerous failings, but bad dancing.... that would be hypocrisy of the highest order.
I can’t dance either. She’s giving it a go to be polite to her hosts. Unkind to criticise her for that.
We are all, in one way or another, hypocrites. If hypocrisy stopped us commenting, this site would have to shut down immediately.
I can't dance either, so I'm even more inclined to give her credit for honouring her hosts.
I normally lurk & don't post much, thinking I haven't got anything interesting to say. But sometimes I ascribe it to lacking the essential ability to keep repeating myself in different words.
Good morning, everyone.
Yes, we should file that as trivia, like Corbyn's shirt button (I expect he thinks nostalgically about when that was the thing people were criticising). If she'd refused to have a go she'd be criticised for that instead.
Politicians should avoid, if at all possible, dancing solo. It never looks good - think Justin Trudeau, who of all current politicians you might think would be able to pull it off; he didn't. But sometimes, you just can't avoid it without looking churlish and disrespectful.
So, things modern politicians should never do:
- solo dancing
- eat bacon sarnies
- hold a banana
- hold Donald Trump's hand
- punch members of the public (unless John Prescott)
- invade foreign countries on the basis of a dodgy dossier
- have an opinion
One of these in not like the others...
It was quite interesting watching the other chappie in the video standing aside and waving Mrs May forward onto the dancefloor.
State schools have been accused of “gaming the system” by excluding thousands of badly performing students in the months before their GCSE exams.
Almost 13,000 teenagers did not have results recorded in league tables last year despite appearing on their schools’ rolls a year earlier, an investigation by The Times has found. The number of pupils removed in the months before exams had been just over 9,000 in each of the previous two years.
Don't we have this story every year, a few days after the photos of girls jumping? It is a natural consequence of league tables and the government's demand that all schools must be above average.
Not exactly new. My state grammar school wouldn’t enter me for French O-Level after I scored just 13% in the mock. This was in 1983!
That is fine (indeed the correct decision) as your results would still have been counted towards those of the school. The problem here is removing the bottom few performers entirely so they don’t count towards your average.
Re: most schools above average. If the average is the mean then that is perfectly possible (consider a county with 30 well mixed comprehensives and 3 special schools for instance). This is why the median may be better here. I must admit I don’t know which they mean.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
In practice, yes. The whips will exert intense pressure on recalcitrant MPs.
The Tories will be hoping for a by-election in Peterborough.
Of the 18 people apologised to recently, two-thirds of the incidents occurred under the Tory government. So Labour far from innocent, but May much worse
The odds are Trump will be re elected in 2020 unless the economy nosedives, after all only 1 President in the last 50 years has failed to be re elected after only one term of his party in the White House, Jimmy Carter in 1980.
However the man who beat Carter, Ronald Reagan, had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to establishment candidate Gerald Ford who then went onto lose the general election to Carter. Bernie Sanders, who narrowly lost the 2016 Democratic primaries to establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, will hope he is the Reagan of 2020
Sanders will be 79 in 2020. Even if he's still alive, he won't be standing. No way on earth.
In light of your comment about Carter, are you advising Trump to avoid rabbits? Perhaps especially Bunnies?
Oh Sanders certainly will be running (Reagan of course was over 70 for most of his presidency) and will be one of the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination alongside Warren and Biden.
I think of the oldsters, Warren will bear Sanders, and Biden would likely beat both if he commits to running. But it's equally likely a fresh face will emerge as frontrunner.
US parties out of the White House for only a term and facing an incumbent president tend to nominate older, more experienced candidates e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson etc
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
Which former politician's autobiography contains this quote?:
"I am very typically British. I like to have time and comfort in the loo. The bathroom is an important room, and I couldn't live in a culture that doesn't respect it."
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
She can't say that another vote is a confidence vote, though
Mark Lilla argues in his new book that the Dems can't win until they work their way past identity politic obsessions and start to articulate a vision for the whole of the US, based on what it means (rights and duties etc) to be a citizen.
He also strongly argues that Dems have lost touch with the fly over states and their activist base of campus and metro area residents must try and engage and empathise with, say, a backwoods dweller in Virginia. The obsession with identity groups and movements has left blue collar and union activists lost and out of touch within the party, and crucially, there has been a failure to try and win at local level.
What do the Dems envision the US should look like in ten years time?
His summary:
"Less marches and more mayors."
I disagree profoundly with that.
It should be fewer marches.
My mistake.
I thought you were quoting!
not quite. i should have been clearer.
he actually writes, "the age of movement politics is over, at least for now. We need no more marchers. We need more mayors..."
Most marches just end up making the marchers feel better. I’m struggling to think of one that actually changed something although I’m sure that that’s down to my ignorance.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
Yes but she couldn't link it to the Brexit vote. Tory rebels could vote against the Brexit deal but still vote that they have confidence in the government.
The odds are Trump will be re elected in 2020 unless the economy nosedives, after all only 1 President in the last 50 years has failed to be re elected after only one term of his party in the White House, Jimmy Carter in 1980.
However the man who beat Carter, Ronald Reagan, had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to establishment candidate Gerald Ford who then went onto lose the general election to Carter. Bernie Sanders, who narrowly lost the 2016 Democratic primaries to establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, will hope he is the Reagan of 2020
Sanders will be 79 in 2020. Even if he's still alive, he won't be standing. No way on earth.
In light of your comment about Carter, are you advising Trump to avoid rabbits? Perhaps especially Bunnies?
Oh Sanders certainly will be running (Reagan of course was over 70 for most of his presidency) and will be one of the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination alongside Warren and Biden.
I think of the oldsters, Warren will bear Sanders, and Biden would likely beat both if he commits to running. But it's equally likely a fresh face will emerge as frontrunner.
US parties out of the White House for only a term and facing an incumbent president tend to nominate older, more experienced candidates e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson etc
That's because those are the ones that are running. Taking on an incumbent President is generally long-odds (see @rcs1000's video), so the rising stars often sit it out, and an elder statesman takes their one-and-only shot. That's not the case here with Trump.
Bill Clinton is the really interesting exception - he was so far down the Democrat pecking order that he thought it was worth a shot at a seemingly impregnable George HW Bush.
The odds are Trump will be re elected in 2020 unless the economy nosedives, after all only 1 President in the last 50 years has failed to be re elected after only one term of his party in the White House, Jimmy Carter in 1980.
However the man who beat Carter, Ronald Reagan, had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to establishment candidate Gerald Ford who then went onto lose the general election to Carter. Bernie Sanders, who narrowly lost the 2016 Democratic primaries to establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, will hope he is the Reagan of 2020
Sanders will be 79 in 2020. Even if he's still alive, he won't be standing. No way on earth.
In light of your comment about Carter, are you advising Trump to avoid rabbits? Perhaps especially Bunnies?
Oh Sanders certainly will be running (Reagan of course was over 70 for most of his presidency) and will be one of the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination alongside Warren and Biden.
I think of the oldsters, Warren will bear Sanders, and Biden would likely beat both if he commits to running. But it's equally likely a fresh face will emerge as frontrunner.
US parties out of the White House for only a term and facing an incumbent president tend to nominate older, more experienced candidates e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson etc
Not a great hit rate on that list...
Apart from Reagan, also explains why the odds favour a Trump re election
I think I understand what John Major is doing. He wants May to reverse Brexit so that she can lose the next election so spectacularly that everyone will forget that he lead the Conservative Party to a historic disaster himself in 1997.
Why, oh why, are we expected to listen to and value the opinions of a man who was an utter failure as PM? Surely his record of failure would suggest that we should do the opposite of whatever he thinks?
For him, this is personal.
his record on |Europe is poor. He led us into the ERM disaster and should have held a referendum on Maastricht. He probably would have won it.
Indeed he should have and yes he would've won.
Perhaps equally important it might've established a precedent for getting further European treaties approved in a referendum (as the sensible Irish have). We then could not have complained we hadn't been consulted for decades by the time 2016 did come around. It would almost certainly (in my view at least) have let us apply some brakes somewhere on the road of Nice/Amsterdam/Lisbon, and given our politicians some real gauge of the skeptical or otherwise temperature along the way, without them getting as far out of whack as they clearly did to arrive at the point where we have a very Remainy HoC compared with the country at large on the most important political item of the age.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
It's simply absurd to think that a referendum on No Deal would get through either chamber.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
No they won't. The majority of Tory MPs, the DUP and Labour Leave MPs would vote down a Remain option.
Remain had its chance in the 2016 referendum and lost, the only question now is whether to Leave with a Deal or without a deal
Mr. Nick, indeed. If another referendum looms then Remain will certainly be an option.
And whatever happens there'll be claims of gerrymandering. If three option, that splits the Leave vote. If Deal or Remain, that will be seen to have no True Leave option as well as providing an incentive for the worst deal possible (as an aside, that would be eminently winnable for Remain).
Whatever happens, the EU fault line will dominate politics for decades.
The odds are Trump will be re elected in 2020 unless the economy nosedives, after all only 1 President in the last 50 years has failed to be re elected after only one term of his party in the White House, Jimmy Carter in 1980.
However the man who beat Carter, Ronald Reagan, had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to establishment candidate Gerald Ford who then went onto lose the general election to Carter. Bernie Sanders, who narrowly lost the 2016 Democratic primaries to establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, will hope he is the Reagan of 2020
Sanders will be 79 in 2020. Even if he's still alive, he won't be standing. No way on earth.
In light of your comment about Carter, are you advising Trump to avoid rabbits? Perhaps especially Bunnies?
Oh Sanders certainly will be running (Reagan of course was over 70 for most of his presidency) and will be one of the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination alongside Warren and Biden.
I think of the oldsters, Warren will bear Sanders, and Biden would likely beat both if he commits to running. But it's equally likely a fresh face will emerge as frontrunner.
US parties out of the White House for only a term and facing an incumbent president tend to nominate older, more experienced candidates e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson etc
That's because those are the ones that are running. Taking on an incumbent President is generally long-odds (see @rcs1000's video), so the rising stars often sit it out, and an elder statesman takes their one-and-only shot. That's not the case here with Trump.
Bill Clinton is the really interesting exception - he was so far down the Democrat pecking order that he thought it was worth a shot at a seemingly impregnable George HW Bush.
Bill Clinton was facing a Republican incumbent candidate after 12 years of his party in power, the GOP and Trump aol only have been in power for 4 years in 2020
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
It will end up with a vote that offers deal or crashout as the only two options.
It's not possible to offer crash-out as an option unless the vote really is on the final day, otherwise voting against the deal would merely precipitate a political crisis that would be very unlikely to end with us leaving with no deal.
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better.
Sorry if this is going to sound like horse, bolt and stable advice but correct form free weights are miles better than machines, as those tend to massively restrict range of motion.
It was when I was lifting a 1kg weight that I felt the pain. God knows what caused it. Irritatingly, I can’t even swim now, other than on my back kicking my legs like a child. I think I’ll stick to walking and shelve any ambition to have Megan Markle-like upper arms.......
Rest, ice, nurofen, and stay off the machines, and it'll probably have gone in a fortnight.
If only. That’s pretty much what I have been doing. I am practically addicted to Nurofen.
Have my scan soon. So fingers crossed.
But thanks.
Sounds like a rotator cuff injury. I had one a few years back, but full recovery with rest and a bit of physio. It did take a few months.
Scan a good idea to confirm, and determine the size of the tear.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
It's simply absurd to think that a referendum on No Deal would get through either chamber.
Another referendum with Remain on the ballot certainly will not get past Tory MPs, the DUP and Labour Leave MPs and the Parliament Act can overrule the Lords
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
She can't say that another vote is a confidence vote, though
That’s not my reading of the legislation, but I’m not a constitutional expert.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
Yes but she couldn't link it to the Brexit vote. Tory rebels could vote against the Brexit deal but still vote that they have confidence in the government.
She could declare she considers it to be so and threaten to resign.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
IANAL but IIUC the FTPA says that the only way to trigger an early election is with a specific no-confidence vote, so you can no longer trigger an election with "This House has confidence in the policy of the Government on the adoption of the Conservatory Protection Bill" or whatever.
I suppose TMay could write a bill like that for her hypothetical BINO deal but opponents could vote against it without triggering an election. Obviously she'd also have other potential moves like threatening to resign or tabling a proper confidence vote and voting her own government down.
Presumably the PB Leavers will dismiss the concerns of the Japanese government and Japanese industry in the same way that they dismiss every negative story surrounding their project?
Post Brexit, Japan and the UK will be the biggest strategic leftovers, so military/diplomatic cooperation makes style sense. I'm not sure they have a lot in common otherwise.
Williamson's Japan defence deal was just a reannouncement of Hague's 2013 deal which has amounted to the cube root of fuck all. In terms of equipment we have nothing they want and they have nothing we can afford.
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better. I will be going for a scan shortly as I may have torn a tendon. It should, once the right diagnosis has been made, be curable.
But experiences like that don’t make it any easier to do what I know I should. Oddly, I can still do pretty vigorous gardening, which keeps me flexible and strong.
Speaking as a part-owner of a (Crossfit) gym, that suggests that somewhere in your medical or training team someone may not have sufficient expertise, or there was an unfortunate accident or oversight (which might speak of insufficient supervision).
Hope you recover well.
Thank you. I am now in the care of UCL’s Institute of Sports Injuries and they seem to think this can be resolved, albeit may be painful and will involve some hard work on my part and, if unlucky, surgery. If I go back to training I think I will do better warm up exercises and possibly get supervision. I feel a bit scared of tackling those machines again, to be honest. Gyms always feel very male oriented - rather than the natural domain of a less than fully fit and plump middle aged woman.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
She can't say that another vote is a confidence vote, though
That’s not my reading of the legislation, but I’m not a constitutional expert.
She can say vote X is a confidence vote, but it really isn't. If she persuades enough people that she really will immediately table a FTPA confidence vote if vote X loses, and they don't want her out, then X becomes a sort of defacto confidence vote. That's my understanding anyway.
Of the 18 people apologised to recently, two-thirds of the incidents occurred under the Tory government. So Labour far from innocent, but May much worse
Compared to, for one context, 450 people being killed early through procedural problems by being given drugs inappropriately at Gosport in the current hospital scandal, according to the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-44547788
Yes - Windrush is a very serious issue. But there is a hell of a lot of tactical politicking involved.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
It's simply absurd to think that a referendum on No Deal would get through either chamber.
Another referendum with Remain on the ballot certainly will not get past Tory MPs, the DUP and Labour Leave MPs and the Parliament Act can overrule the Lords
The Parliament Act takes time which we don't have, and there wouldn't be a majority for a No Deal referendum in the Commons anyway.
Post Brexit, Japan and the UK will be the biggest strategic leftovers, so military/diplomatic cooperation makes style sense. I'm not sure they have a lot in common otherwise.
two eccentric island nations at either end of the Eurasian landmass , both with a monarchy, absurd house prices and ridiculous gameshows ?
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
No they won't. The majority of Tory MPs, the DUP and Labour Leave MPs would vote down a Remain option.
Remain had its chance in the 2016 referendum and lost, the only question now is whether to Leave with a Deal or without a deal
The best way to do it would be to have three or four choices, e.g. Remain, Deal, No Deal, (EEA – optional fourth choice), and have the voters rank them. That would give a better reflection of the public's intentions and have the additional advantage of covering most/all bases.
Not exactly new. My state grammar school wouldn’t enter me for French O-Level after I scored just 13% in the mock. This was in 1983!
I did my French O-Level when I was 13 (I went to school in Belgium from age 6 to 11). The invigilator assumed I was some sort of interloping miscreant and wouldn't let me into the exam. By the time it all got sorted I lost 30 minutes of exam time!
Mark Lilla argues in his new book that the Dems can't win until they work their way past identity politic obsessions and start to articulate a vision for the whole of the US, based on what it means (rights and duties etc) to be a citizen.
He also strongly argues that Dems have lost touch with the fly over states and their activist base of campus and metro area residents must try and engage and empathise with, say, a backwoods dweller in Virginia. The obsession with identity groups and movements has left blue collar and union activists lost and out of touch within the party, and crucially, there has been a failure to try and win at local level.
What do the Dems envision the US should look like in ten years time?
His summary:
"Less marches and more mayors."
I disagree profoundly with that.
It should be fewer marches.
My mistake.
I thought you were quoting!
not quite. i should have been clearer.
he actually writes, "the age of movement politics is over, at least for now. We need no more marchers. We need more mayors..."
Most marches just end up making the marchers feel better. I’m struggling to think of one that actually changed something although I’m sure that that’s down to my ignorance.
The Long March....
The March on Rome, not a shot fired (afaik) and Musso in power for the next 21 years. Not a change for the better I hasten to add, though others (hi Stevie B!) may disagree,
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
It's simply absurd to think that a referendum on No Deal would get through either chamber.
Another referendum with Remain on the ballot certainly will not get past Tory MPs, the DUP and Labour Leave MPs and the Parliament Act can overrule the Lords
The Parliament Act takes time which we don't have, and there wouldn't be a majority for a No Deal referendum in the Commons anyway.
May would only use it once a Deal had been signed with the EU, if Parliament refused to ratify the Deal and a Deal or No Deal referendum was the only way to break the deadlock and get it past the ERG and Labour Leave MPs who would vote against any referendum with a Remain option (indeed a majority of Tory MPs would vote against any referendum with a Remain option)
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
She can’t do that directly. She could threaten to resign or call an election but MPs could vote against an election.
I don’t think the FTPA prevents her from tabling a motion of no confidence. She just has to win one of confidence within 14 days of losing it to prevent an early election.
She can't say that another vote is a confidence vote, though
That’s not my reading of the legislation, but I’m not a constitutional expert.
She can say vote X is a confidence vote, but it really isn't. If she persuades enough people that she really will immediately table a FTPA confidence vote if vote X loses, and they don't want her out, then X becomes a sort of defacto confidence vote. That's my understanding anyway.
I think that would do.
Basically, she needs to get c.60 ERG rebels down to 15 or less.
Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better. I will be going for a scan shortly as I may have torn a tendon. It should, once the right diagnosis has been made, be curable.
But experiences like that don’t make it any easier to do what I know I should. Oddly, I can still do pretty vigorous gardening, which keeps me flexible and strong.
Speaking as a part-owner of a (Crossfit) gym, that suggests that somewhere in your medical or training team someone may not have sufficient expertise, or there was an unfortunate accident or oversight (which might speak of insufficient supervision).
Hope you recover well.
Thank you. I am now in the care of UCL’s Institute of Sports Injuries and they seem to think this can be resolved, albeit may be painful and will involve some hard work on my part and, if unlucky, surgery. If I go back to training I think I will do better warm up exercises and possibly get supervision. I feel a bit scared of tackling those machines again, to be honest. Gyms always feel very male oriented - rather than the natural domain of a less than fully fit and plump middle aged woman.
When you’re ready, get a good PT. They can make all the difference.
The odds are Trump will be re elected in 2020 unless the economy nosedives, after all only 1 President in the last 50 years has failed to be re elected after only one term of his party in the White House, Jimmy Carter in 1980.
However the man who beat Carter, Ronald Reagan, had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to establishment candidate Gerald Ford who then went onto lose the general election to Carter. Bernie Sanders, who narrowly lost the 2016 Democratic primaries to establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, will hope he is the Reagan of 2020
Sanders will be 79 in 2020. Even if he's still alive, he won't be standing. No way on earth.
In light of your comment about Carter, are you advising Trump to avoid rabbits? Perhaps especially Bunnies?
Oh Sanders certainly will be running (Reagan of course was over 70 for most of his presidency) and will be one of the frontrunners for the Democratic nomination alongside Warren and Biden.
I think of the oldsters, Warren will bear Sanders, and Biden would likely beat both if he commits to running. But it's equally likely a fresh face will emerge as frontrunner.
US parties out of the White House for only a term and facing an incumbent president tend to nominate older, more experienced candidates e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson etc
That's because those are the ones that are running. Taking on an incumbent President is generally long-odds (see @rcs1000's video), so the rising stars often sit it out, and an elder statesman takes their one-and-only shot. That's not the case here with Trump.
Bill Clinton is the really interesting exception - he was so far down the Democrat pecking order that he thought it was worth a shot at a seemingly impregnable George HW Bush.
Bill Clinton was facing a Republican incumbent candidate after 12 years of his party in power, the GOP and Trump aol only have been in power for 4 years in 2020
GHWB had +60% net approval (as per the video), boosted by Iraq I. High profile Democrats - notably Mario Cuomo & Jesse Jackson - declined to run.
Trump is in a much weaker position, though his re-election is certainly still a strong possibility.
Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
It's simply absurd to think that a referendum on No Deal would get through either chamber.
Another referendum with Remain on the ballot certainly will not get past Tory MPs, the DUP and Labour Leave MPs and the Parliament Act can overrule the Lords
The Parliament Act takes time which we don't have, and there wouldn't be a majority for a No Deal referendum in the Commons anyway.
May would only use it once a Deal had been signed with the EU, if Parliament refused to ratify the Deal and a Deal or No Deal referendum was the only way to break the deadlock and get it past the ERG and Labour Leave MPs who would vote against any referendum with a Remain option (indeed a majority of Tory MPs would vote against any referendum with a Remain option)
Even if there was public demand for it? How incredibly short-sighted of them.
Not exactly new. My state grammar school wouldn’t enter me for French O-Level after I scored just 13% in the mock. This was in 1983!
I did my French O-Level when I was 13 (I went to school in Belgium from age 6 to 11). The invigilator assumed I was some sort of interloping miscreant and wouldn't let me into the exam. By the time it all got sorted I lost 30 minutes of exam time!
Post Brexit, Japan and the UK will be the biggest strategic leftovers, so military/diplomatic cooperation makes style sense. I'm not sure they have a lot in common otherwise.
two eccentric island nations at either end of the Eurasian landmass , both with a monarchy, absurd house prices and ridiculous gameshows ?
Both with national sports played traditionally in white flannel clothing.
Post Brexit, Japan and the UK will be the biggest strategic leftovers, so military/diplomatic cooperation makes style sense. I'm not sure they have a lot in common otherwise.
We both drive on the left. Hence the market in grey imports of Japanese flashy motors.
Post Brexit, Japan and the UK will be the biggest strategic leftovers, so military/diplomatic cooperation makes style sense. I'm not sure they have a lot in common otherwise.
We both drive on the left. Hence the market in grey imports of Japanese flashy motors.
We also....
....no, can't think of any more.
we've both been to war with the USA, Russia and China.
thats what being a tea drinking nation does to you.
Post Brexit, Japan and the UK will be the biggest strategic leftovers, so military/diplomatic cooperation makes style sense. I'm not sure they have a lot in common otherwise.
We both drive on the left. Hence the market in grey imports of Japanese flashy motors.
We also....
....no, can't think of any more.
The Japanese are sensible and stand on the left on escalators. I find it weird that we do the opposite to them yet we both drive on the left.
Not exactly new. My state grammar school wouldn’t enter me for French O-Level after I scored just 13% in the mock. This was in 1983!
I did my French O-Level when I was 13 (I went to school in Belgium from age 6 to 11). The invigilator assumed I was some sort of interloping miscreant and wouldn't let me into the exam. By the time it all got sorted I lost 30 minutes of exam time!
How did you get on?
I got a B at which my father s'est énervé. I resat it the following November and got an A. I did get an A at A-Level at the first attempt when I was 16. I was always destined to be an arch remainer.
Post Brexit, Japan and the UK will be the biggest strategic leftovers, so military/diplomatic cooperation makes style sense. I'm not sure they have a lot in common otherwise.
We both drive on the left. Hence the market in grey imports of Japanese flashy motors.
We also....
....no, can't think of any more.
The Japanese are sensible and stand on the left on escalators. I find it weird that we do the opposite to them yet we both drive on the left.
In western Japan they stand on the right. Not sure which side they drive down there.
Comments
"Irish border question must be solved by UK, not EU, says Sweden
Swedish EU affairs minister Ann Linde says it is regrettable issue has become ‘a matter of ideology’ in UK"
Have my scan soon. So fingers crossed.
But thanks.
The Swedish minister for EU affairs and trade, Ann Linde, said it was regrettable the Conservative party had made such an “extreme ideological” issue of the need to maintain the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit.
I thought it was the EU and Dublin who had made maintain[ing] the existing invisible border between Northern Ireland and Ireland after Brexit....an “extreme ideological” issue
Plenty of clubs and activities for the retired there, I said.
We don’t join clubs and such he rep[lied.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/14/life-expectancy-fall-one-year-middle-classes-among-hardest-hit/
We make our nations the centre of maps, and ourselves the centre of normality around which all others revolve. It's a natural, if self-indulgent and often wrong, approach to the world.
Bye now; off to the gym.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6105715/Gothic-tower-bought-banker-425-000-market-2million.html
Which former politician's autobiography contains this quote?:
"I am very typically British. I like to have time and comfort in the loo. The bathroom is an important room, and I couldn't live in a culture that doesn't respect it."
But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
Hope you recover well.
The opposition parties need to think carefully about just how much fire they’re prepared to play.
Lockheed is rather formidable competition, though, now it's been decided to share the F22 tech with Japan.
Re: most schools above average. If the average is the mean then that is perfectly possible (consider a county with 30 well mixed comprehensives and 3 special schools for instance). This is why the median may be better here. I must admit I don’t know which they mean.
The Tories will be hoping for a by-election in Peterborough.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-45325878
Bill Clinton is the really interesting exception - he was so far down the Democrat pecking order that he thought it was worth a shot at a seemingly impregnable George HW Bush.
Perhaps equally important it might've established a precedent for getting further European treaties approved in a referendum (as the sensible Irish have). We then could not have complained we hadn't been consulted for decades by the time 2016 did come around. It would almost certainly (in my view at least) have let us apply some brakes somewhere on the road of Nice/Amsterdam/Lisbon, and given our politicians some real gauge of the skeptical or otherwise temperature along the way, without them getting as far out of whack as they clearly did to arrive at the point where we have a very Remainy HoC compared with the country at large on the most important political item of the age.
Remain had its chance in the 2016 referendum and lost, the only question now is whether to Leave with a Deal or without a deal
And whatever happens there'll be claims of gerrymandering. If three option, that splits the Leave vote. If Deal or Remain, that will be seen to have no True Leave option as well as providing an incentive for the worst deal possible (as an aside, that would be eminently winnable for Remain).
Whatever happens, the EU fault line will dominate politics for decades.
Anyway, I must be off for a bit.
Scan a good idea to confirm, and determine the size of the tear.
https://www.physio-pedia.com/Supraspinatus_tear
I suppose TMay could write a bill like that for her hypothetical BINO deal but opponents could vote against it without triggering an election. Obviously she'd also have other potential moves like threatening to resign or tabling a proper confidence vote and voting her own government down.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-44547788
Yes - Windrush is a very serious issue. But there is a hell of a lot of tactical politicking involved.
That's all.
Basically, she needs to get c.60 ERG rebels down to 15 or less.
Trump is in a much weaker position, though his re-election is certainly still a strong possibility.
We also....
....no, can't think of any more.
thats what being a tea drinking nation does to you.