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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,233
    edited August 2018

    Cyclefree said:

    MattW said:


    Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better. I will be going for a scan shortly as I may have torn a tendon. It should, once the right diagnosis has been made, be curable.

    But experiences like that don’t make it any easier to do what I know I should. Oddly, I can still do pretty vigorous gardening, which keeps me flexible and strong.

    Speaking as a part-owner of a (Crossfit) gym, that suggests that somewhere in your medical or training team someone may not have sufficient expertise, or there was an unfortunate accident or oversight (which might speak of insufficient supervision).

    Hope you recover well.
    Thank you. I am now in the care of UCL’s Institute of Sports Injuries and they seem to think this can be resolved, albeit may be painful and will involve some hard work on my part and, if unlucky, surgery. If I go back to training I think I will do better warm up exercises and possibly get supervision. I feel a bit scared of tackling those machines again, to be honest. Gyms always feel very male oriented - rather than the natural domain of a less than fully fit and plump middle aged woman.
    When you’re ready, get a good PT. They can make all the difference.
    I’m sure. Finding one is like finding a good financial advisor. Lots of talk but I have the teensiest suspicion of bullshit. I’d like someone (a woman?) who understands me rather than a man putting me on a male training programme. I just want to be a bit fitter and not shriek when I unexpectedly catch sight of myself in a mirror. The bikini went to the charity shop a while ago.

    Honestly, the only time I was unbelievably, fashionably thin, hip bones like razors etc, I had TB but that is a bit drastic as a weight loss programme.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,781
    Cyclefree said:

    MattW said:


    Last year I started doing some gym training. As a result of some arm exercises I have for the last few months ended up with a really painful shoulder and upper arm which, despite physio, has not got better. I will be going for a scan shortly as I may have torn a tendon. It should, once the right diagnosis has been made, be curable.

    But experiences like that don’t make it any easier to do what I know I should. Oddly, I can still do pretty vigorous gardening, which keeps me flexible and strong.

    Speaking as a part-owner of a (Crossfit) gym, that suggests that somewhere in your medical or training team someone may not have sufficient expertise, or there was an unfortunate accident or oversight (which might speak of insufficient supervision).

    Hope you recover well.
    Thank you. I am now in the care of UCL’s Institute of Sports Injuries and they seem to think this can be resolved, albeit may be painful and will involve some hard work on my part and, if unlucky, surgery. If I go back to training I think I will do better warm up exercises and possibly get supervision. I feel a bit scared of tackling those machines again, to be honest. Gyms always feel very male oriented - rather than the natural domain of a less than fully fit and plump middle aged woman.
    Ours is - interestingly - close to 50:50.

    You get a higher percentage of females is class-based environments. Our trainers tell me men prefer individual training because they are more vain than women.

    Another resource a lot of people forget they have access to is "wellness services" (eg chiropractic) through Health Insurance or Health Cash Plans through organisations such as Westfield Health or the BHSF, either via invidual membership or Union / Membership organisations or employer programmes. Not things to be joining at 75+ usually, though.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:



    May would only use it once a Deal had been signed with the EU, if Parliament refused to ratify the Deal and a Deal or No Deal referendum was the only way to break the deadlock and get it past the ERG and Labour Leave MPs who would vote against any referendum with a Remain option (indeed a majority of Tory MPs would vote against any referendum with a Remain option)

    I don't think many (if any) Labour MPs would vote against a remain option in a future referendum. As long as there was also a leave option the all except the usual suspects (Field, Hoey etc) would be happy. About 99.9% of Labour Party members would also be in support. Since quite a few Tory MPs and almost all the minor parties could also be expected to be in favour I think any proposal by the governments for another vote with a remain option would get through easily.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162

    HYUFD said:



    May would only use it once a Deal had been signed with the EU, if Parliament refused to ratify the Deal and a Deal or No Deal referendum was the only way to break the deadlock and get it past the ERG and Labour Leave MPs who would vote against any referendum with a Remain option (indeed a majority of Tory MPs would vote against any referendum with a Remain option)

    I don't think many (if any) Labour MPs would vote against a remain option in a future referendum. As long as there was also a leave option the all except the usual suspects (Field, Hoey etc) would be happy. About 99.9% of Labour Party members would also be in support. Since quite a few Tory MPs and almost all the minor parties could also be expected to be in favour I think any proposal by the governments for another vote with a remain option would get through easily.
    I think the only referendum that's feasible is another binary Leave/Remain where Leave means ratify the Withdrawal Agreement.
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    new thread

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    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    So I reckon this guarantees Labour votes against any deal

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1034390331352129536

    Labour's line will definitely be to vote against any deal May comes up with. A few MPs may rebel but bearing in mind the pressure they will be under from their local membership, not to mention the opprobrium that would descend on them if they kept May in power, I think any rebellion will be quite small.
    I think Labour can rely on 250 or so votes against any deal. Presumably, they'd get the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Caroline Lucas as well, which takes them up to 303. The wild cards are Labour (and ex-Labour) rebels, Lady Hermon, and Conservative rebels.
    I’m not seeing the votes for any deal in the Commons at present.

    But, I suspect May will make it a confidence vote.
    The votes are there for a Deal or No Deal referendum though if the Deal cannot pass the Commons as the ERG and Labour Leavers would switch from opposition to support
    If it comes to a new referendum parliament will certainly insert Remain into the mix. A referendum asking for a choice of May's deal (which lacks a parliamentary majority) and cliff edge (which also lacks a parliamentary majority) would be the ultimate abdication of parliament's responsibility to lead the nation.
    No they won't. The majority of Tory MPs, the DUP and Labour Leave MPs would vote down a Remain option.

    Remain had its chance in the 2016 referendum and lost, the only question now is whether to Leave with a Deal or without a deal
    The best way to do it would be to have three or four choices, e.g. Remain, Deal, No Deal, (EEA – optional fourth choice), and have the voters rank them. That would give a better reflection of the public's intentions and have the additional advantage of covering most/all bases.
    Like with AV you mean?
    Think we may need a thread on how it works.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,133

    THE woman who led the probe into alleged sexual misconduct by Alex Salmond is married to an SNP activist, the Herald can reveal, debunking a Nationalist conspiracy theory.

    Elements of the Yes movement have suggested Permanent Secretary Leslie Evans, the Scottish Government’s top official, is married to a former head of MI5, Lord Jonathan Evans.

    The claim has being used to paint the former First Minister as the victim of a Unionist plot, with people tweeting at Ms Evan’s official account demanding she clarify the position.

    SNP MP Angus Brendan MacNeil added to the febrile atmosphere yesterday, retweeting a message saying “I stand with Alex Salmond” against the “British establishment”.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16602169.alex-salmond-probe-conspiracy-theory-about-mi5-debunked/

    "I stand with Alex Salmond....just, not too close...."
    The unionist baddies will be disappointed in the end.
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