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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?
So, after many economics and finance related posts, I thought why not do a politics one?
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Second like Remain & Corbyn......
I shall now watch the video......
Don't know what it is with the YouTube algorithm, but the 'suggested videos you may like' includes a "Fail Compilation"....
American life expectancy isn't going up any more; indeed I thought the latest figures show a decline, The unhealthy lifestyle of current middle aged Americans, compared with that of their parents, is finally taking its toll (similar trends also here).
The trouble with the US system is that the various bits of it can all blame each other and accountability seems hard to pin down.
The big question is whether the working class swing voters who fell for Trump's pitch to them will feel bretrayed, as he points benefits towards his rich friends, or buoyed by the growing economy. Unless Trump is able to redirect some of the fruits of growth the polls suggest the former.
I'll watch when a bit less sleepy. Also, does the last bit imply you think you have a brain the size of a planet?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/27/crime-of-voting-texas-woman-crystal-mason-five-years-prison
https://twitter.com/MorrisF1/status/1029393287998779392
https://twitter.com/RANDCorporation/status/1022914166355648513?s=19
Studied sleep a bit at university, including copying Napoleon's sleep schedule (from 12-2am, then around 4-6pm. I strongly recommend never trying it). People need varying amounts of sleep. Too much is almost as bad as not enough. Einstein slept loads, Thatcher and Napoleon (separately) just four hours a night.
Broad brush 'you need lots of sleep' headlines aren't too helpful. Some parts of the brain only become active at night so if you sleep too much you overtax them, and the sleep cycle has a great degree of natural variance.
It doesn't help when general media gets the most basic things wrong. I recall being annoyed when the BBC had an article about not using e-readers before bed because the blue light interrupted melatonin[sp] production. Great. Except e-readers don't do that. Many aren't lit at all. They meant tablets which can be used for reading e-books, which are entirely different devices because they use standard screen technology rather than e-ink deliberately created to be easier on the eyes (and it is, a lot).
However the man who beat Carter, Ronald Reagan, had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to establishment candidate Gerald Ford who then went onto lose the general election to Carter. Bernie Sanders, who narrowly lost the 2016 Democratic primaries to establishment candidate Hillary Clinton, will hope he is the Reagan of 2020
In light of your comment about Carter, are you advising Trump to avoid rabbits? Perhaps especially Bunnies?
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Best guess: Greens are doing very well, AfD up a bit. We'll know a bit more in October, when the most conservative state, Bavaria, votes: here the CSU is worried by the AfD, while both FDP (Liberals) and Left are hovering near the 5% level needed to get seats. This was the background to the CSU-Merkel row a few months back, in which the CSU ultimately backed down.
https://www.salon.com/2018/05/31/democrats-gear-up-for-2020-and-bernie-sanders-still-leads-the-pack/
I expect Trump's bunny problem will be more of the Playboy than animal kind
Age is a big worry looking at a lot of these front runners. Biden and Bloomberg are also being mentioned, and they're the same age as Sanders (well, a year younger in Biden's case). Warren is slightly younger but I don't think will appeal as the consummate Washington insider.
I think Cuomo is the one to watch if I'm honest if only for that reason, but it could well be somebody totally unexpected.
My rabbits/bunnies joke was a clearly not terribly successful attempt at bringing the most famous gaffe of Carter's presidency with some of Jeremy Thorpe's ummm, outside activities.
PS - there is a massive difference between being over 70 and being over 80.
...right up to the moment the 46th President takes the oath of office and becomes President Pence.
Can we get him removed and replaced with someone sane first please?
The record for US investigations into Presidents suggests that they nearly always take more than 4 years to come to a head. Think Clinton, Nixon, Reagan etc. All 3 of these were re-elected pretty handily so it doesn't stop them. I don't expect it to stop Trump either although he did get an exceptionally sharp start on some of the investigations which were up and running before he even took office.
I would be unlikely to vote for someone my age for national office, although I could, I suppose, be persauded.
What has happened to those of my or round about my age who used to post; Hurstlama for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein_refrigerator
Leo Szilard would be a great name for a Bond villain.
A centrist like former Republican Bloomberg has near zero chance as does Cuomo who has trouble enough beating Cynthia Nixon in the New York Democratic Governor primary
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/presidential-hopeful-gavin-duffy-to-fund-ras-bid-with-750k-loan-37258936.html
I have no interest anymore in being involved with managing clubs or organisations having been heavily involved most of my life and prefer to focus attention on my wife and family, especially our grandchildren
While the Queen is exceptional I would not be attracted to vote for any politician older than myself. There is a time when the batton should be handed on to a younger person
Sanders as Boris, at any rate in your obsessive refusal to face reality over him.
The other issue rolling is that there will be 16 Land elections between governments and this is
now the laboratory of German national elections. Prviously the "decent" parties would have no truck with AfD or Die Linke but now it is getting increasingly difficult to form governments without at least one of them. Berlin already has Die Linke in a coalition. This matters as it picks away at the reasons for keeping the extremists out of government. It also matters as once the taboo is broken you are more likely to see a return to Left Right politcs in Germany instead of the current blancmange where people who are natural opponents have to work out a limited agenda they can cooperate on in order to keep the challenger parties out. This mishmash politics to date has been helping feed the extremes where the voters end up seeing little difference between the parties and vote more exotically to make a point. It's the kind of tired centrism which produce UKIP and eventually Corbyn.
https://www.npr.org/2018/07/05/625822590/for-democrats-pragmatists-are-still-trumping-progressives-where-it-counts
I think social media has tilted the field in favour of spikey, outspoken candidates, and in US presidential elections the more audacious guy always wins, but I don't think it's clear that primary voters will be going way left, except on issues where the overton window has already shifted like Medicare-for-all.
I think of the oldsters, Warren will bear Sanders, and Biden would likely beat both if he commits to running. But it's equally likely a fresh face will emerge as frontrunner.
Although, how you'd know....
If someone of the left gets the nomination, it will very likely be because they can appeal across the party - and to some extent outside of it. Candidates like Sanders don't fall into that category.
A similar consideration applies to more centrist Democrats, though. Those that can't gain the approval of the more 'progressive' Democrats won't get the nomination either.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/democrats-shouldnt-run-anyone-in-20-whos-older-than-trump.html
But I very much doubt if she will be running.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_presidential_election,_1966
One minor criticism, which I realise may be just a matter of taste: I got quite distracted at first by the hand movements. I do it myself sometimes when teaching, but the feedback provided by a class of Y10 pupils imitating me is an excellent curative.
The wild-card is a big economic downturn, for which the US is very badly positioned. If that happens, Trump could be looking at the worst incumbent performance since Carter (I was going to say 'since Taft' but I'd forgotten briefly that Carter won only 49 ECVs in 1980 - albeit off 41% of the vote, which would translate into a lot more today).
But Trump won in 2016 because Hillary was bloody awful and Bernie would have been worse. Quite how the Democrats ended up with only two meaningful candidates, both of whom were so badly flawed is a question that they should never stop asking. Putting up someone in 2020 who (1) doesn't scare the horses so that Trump ends up being least risky, (2) isn't suspect on other grounds with independents, and (3) has more charisma than a microwave, should be enough.
Trump's core vote will vote for him regardless but Trump's true core - those who voted for him in the 2016 primaries - is small. Even adding in the firm Republicans won't take him much above 35%. Beyond that, he has to reduce his opponent and embellish himself. His ability on both scores shouldn't be underestimated but the more teflon his opponent, the harder it becomes to do it effectively - and if it looks increasingly ineffective, he'll become increasingly desperate, which may produce a feedback effect.
As things stand, I'd give him about one chance in three.
https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1034005623506120704
Competent, experienced, good speaker, not too old, not too crazy. Not saying that's the perfect place to run from this time but somebody has to do it.
https://crooked.com/podcast-series/thewilderness/
It’s a long listen, but it’ll help you decide whether to back Beto O’Rourke for the nomination in 2020 or 2024
Very good speech in Cape Town by her live just now. Will go down very well in Africa
My impression is that to a certain extent it applies to our society as a whole: people in their 60s or even 70s now seem a spry as those in their 50s were in my youth.
This is all anecdotal evidence of course, and only of slowing the ageing process, not stopping it.
Mark Lilla argues in his new book that the Dems can't win until they work their way past identity politic obsessions and start to articulate a vision for the whole of the US, based on what it means (rights and duties etc) to be a citizen.
He also strongly argues that Dems have lost touch with the fly over states and their activist base of campus and metro area residents must try and engage and empathise with, say, a backwoods dweller in Virginia. The obsession with identity groups and movements has left blue collar and union activists lost and out of touch within the party, and crucially, there has been a failure to try and win at local level.
What do the Dems envision the US should look like in ten years time?
His summary:
"Less marches and more mayors."
There is a marked downturn in mobility and stamina in most everyone I know in this age grouo
My attempts at The Floss are as awesome as my puns.
It should be fewer marches.
Certainly none of them would or indeed could have done what I propose to do later this morning..... have 45 minutes sigificant activity in the local gym..... bike, running track, weights and so on.
Whether my mind is in good shape others can judge!
https://www.wmur.com/article/2016-presidential-candidate-martin-omalley-returns-to-nh/19669270
Also, he's run before and he's doing events in NH, which gets you past the "actually doing something about in running" hurdle that'll knock out a bunch of contenders.