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williamglenn

Perhaps the best way for them to make progress is for Scottish Labour to divorce itself from Corbyn's Labour and become an independent party.

A split on geographic lines would be a logical response to Brexit.

CarlottaVance

Second! Like Remain, Yes & Corbyn...

CarlottaVance

Not just the BBC who need to 'check their privilege':

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1032540465420222465

HYUFD

Julie Bishop confirms she is to stand in Liberal leadership race against Dutton and Morrison, Turnbull may resign

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-23/live-peter-dutton-poised-to-challenge-malcolm-turnbull-again/10155008

HYUFD

Whether Labour or the SNP win a seat in Scotland irrelevant at a general election as they will both oppose the Tories

Pulpstar

All to play for in Scotland, here are the SNP top targets:

1. Stirling Scotland 148 0.15%
2. Rutherglen and Hamilton West Scotland 265 0.26%
3. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Scotland 259 0.28%
4. Glasgow North East Scotland 242 0.38%
5. Midlothian Scotland 885 0.98%
6. Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland 1,586 1.76%

CarlottaVance

How much of revived Labour support in Scotland came from unionist anti-SNP voters? Unlike May, Corbyn seems no fan of the Union - having actively campaigned to hand one bit of it over to another country....

CarlottaVance

HYUFD said:

Whether Labour or the SNP win a seat in Scotland irrelevant at a general election as they will both oppose the Tories

Errr...it could mean the difference between Opposition, Minority Government and Government!

And SNP propped up Labour minority government would be a very different animal from a Corbyn majority government.

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

Perhaps the best way for them to make progress is for Scottish Labour to divorce itself from Corbyn's Labour and become an independent party.

A split on geographic lines would be a logical response to Brexit.

It would help if their Scottish leader was not an Englishman and probably was a woman

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

Not just the BBC who need to 'check their privilege':

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1032540465420222465

Yep, as I also pointed out last night when this broke.

This is akin to Abbott going on about private education being class divisive.

Ishmael_Z

My jaw remains on the floor after learning how the SNP has shat on the life chances of young, poor Scots for the sake of headlines about tuition fees. Labour, or someone, should be on the attack over this.

Not like it's a new thing, either: 2013 story:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10226794/Scottish-universities-operating-two-tier-clearing-system-favouring-English.html

Theuniondivvie

As I pointed out previously, SLab's 2017 'recovery' consisted of an increase of less than 10k votes on the 2015 Slabageddon. Digging into the figures a bit more, it was actually +9960 votes, 6976 of those for Ian Murray in Edinburgh South. Murray has made it clear he despises Corbyn and I imagine his constituency would have a lot of Unionist tactical voting.

Even ignoring tactical voting in other constituencies, that leaves 2984 votes for Jezzomania in the whole of Scotland. Go the absolute boy!

OldKingCole

After the strength of the Scottish LD’s a few years ago there’s only one SNP/LD marginal. None in the Highlands at all.

CD13

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1032542585989021696

This is pure class war stuff.

Children from the middle classes cannot be trusted to be impartial and professional journalists.

I suppose Milne should know, as he has been writing one sided material for years at the Guardian.

The implication is back to the old one, the BBC will be one of the main targets when the Great Betrayal purge begins either under a Corbyn government, or when they lose badly and turn the twitter mob (or worse) on someone to blame.

stodge

FPT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think that maybe has an element of anti conservative bias rather than accepting the reality that Barnier has not wanted to do anything but punish the UK and that his bluff may be called out to a disaster for both sides.

I doubt TM is going to the Country anytime soon

I'm not a Conservative and I deeply resent the Party putting its own self-preservation before the national interest. As for Barnier we chose to LEAVE, we weren't expelled by the EU - why should he treat us "fairly" (which is Conservative for "give us everything we want so we can sell it as a Conservative triumph")?

Understandably, he is going to make it difficult for us "pour ne pas encourager les autres" to borrow a useful French expression.

Of course, the best approach would be mutual compromise but I've seen precious little sign of the UK willing to give up anything substantive. We could wrap up a deal now if it wasn't for the absurd pandering to the DUP but your Party got us into that position. Yes, we have to pay £40 billion and that money could be usefully spent elsewhere (adult social care provision and local Government just to annoy Casino) but we knew there would have to be a payment to get a deal.

The money is now being used as an excuse NOT to get a deal - a little local difficulty next spring but we'll have £40 billion to spend, have some tax cuts (you can almost see the thought processes of JRM and the ERG loons).

OldKingCole

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

No.

OldKingCole

stodge said:

FPT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think that maybe has an element of anti conservative bias rather than accepting the reality that Barnier has not wanted to do anything but punish the UK and that his bluff may be called out to a disaster for both sides.

I doubt TM is going to the Country anytime soon

I'm not a Conservative and I deeply resent the Party putting its own self-preservation before the national interest. As for Barnier we chose to LEAVE, we weren't expelled by the EU - why should he treat us "fairly" (which is Conservative for "give us everything we want so we can sell it as a Conservative triumph")?

Understandably, he is going to make it difficult for us "pour ne pas encourager les autres" to borrow a useful French expression.

Of course, the best approach would be mutual compromise but I've seen precious little sign of the UK willing to give up anything substantive. We could wrap up a deal now if it wasn't for the absurd pandering to the DUP but your Party got us into that position. Yes, we have to pay £40 billion and that money could be usefully spent elsewhere (adult social care provision and local Government just to annoy Casino) but we knew there would have to be a payment to get a deal.

The money is now being used as an excuse NOT to get a deal - a little local difficulty next spring but we'll have £40 billion to spend, have some tax cuts (you can almost see the thought processes of JRM and the ERG loons).

To be fair, Mr S, the Conservative Party has always intertwined it’s interests with those of the nation as a whole, since it believes it has a divine right to govwern. Inherited, no doubt, from it;s ancestors who believed in the diviine right of kings.

CarlottaVance

Video catch up on goings on going on down under:

https://youtu.be/Ab1I6bKKbjs

Pulpstar

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

Lol "traumatised" for making the beast with two backs as a 17 yr old ... - still she's been particularly conspicuous in brewing this nonsense hot sauce herself so geese, ganders, pots and kettles.

Big_G_NorthWales

stodge said:

FPT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think that maybe has an element of anti conservative bias rather than accepting the reality that Barnier has not wanted to do anything but punish the UK and that his bluff may be called out to a disaster for both sides.

I doubt TM is going to the Country anytime soon

I'm not a Conservative and I deeply resent the Party putting its own self-preservation before the national interest. As for Barnier we chose to LEAVE, we weren't expelled by the EU - why should he treat us "fairly" (which is Conservative for "give us everything we want so we can sell it as a Conservative triumph")?

Understandably, he is going to make it difficult for us "pour ne pas encourager les autres" to borrow a useful French expression.

Of course, the best approach would be mutual compromise but I've seen precious little sign of the UK willing to give up anything substantive. We could wrap up a deal now if it wasn't for the absurd pandering to the DUP but your Party got us into that position. Yes, we have to pay £40 billion and that money could be usefully spent elsewhere (adult social care provision and local Government just to annoy Casino) but we knew there would have to be a payment to get a deal.

The money is now being used as an excuse NOT to get a deal - a little local difficulty next spring but we'll have £40 billion to spend, have some tax cuts (you can almost see the thought processes of JRM and the ERG loons).

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

TOPPING

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

Lol "traumatised" for making the beast with two backs as a 17 yr old ... - still she's been particularly conspicuous in brewing this nonsense hot sauce herself so geese, ganders, pots and kettles.

The fact is that the age of consent where they did the deed is 18. The age of consent is different all over the place but she should receive as much sympathy as someone in this country who did a similar thing with a 12-yr old and then tried to justify it by saying that that is the age of consent in the Philippines.

CarlottaVance

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

John_M

Off topic. Xenophobic, racist Britain, as compared to our enlightened brethren on the Continent.

https://metro.co.uk/2017/05/03/this-map-shows-the-most-racist-countries-in-europe-and-how-britain-ranks-6612608/

Pulpstar

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

Lol "traumatised" for making the beast with two backs as a 17 yr old ... - still she's been particularly conspicuous in brewing this nonsense hot sauce herself so geese, ganders, pots and kettles.

The fact is that the age of consent where they did the deed is 18. The age of consent is different all over the place but she should receive as much sympathy as someone in this country who did a similar thing with a 12-yr old and then tried to justify it by saying that that is the age of consent in the Philippines.

errm ok... (I have no sympathy for her, or anyone in this in the case of doubt)

TOPPING

John_M said:

Off topic. Xenophobic, rascist Britain, as compared to our enlightened brethren on the Continent.

https://metro.co.uk/2017/05/03/this-map-shows-the-most-racist-countries-in-europe-and-how-britain-ranks-6612608/

Thank god for the 48% and the decent Leavers.

DecrepitJohnL

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1032542585989021696

This is pure class war stuff.

Children from the middle classes cannot be trusted to be impartial and professional journalists.

I suppose Milne should know, as he has been writing one sided material for years at the Guardian.

The implication is back to the old one, the BBC will be one of the main targets when the Great Betrayal purge begins either under a Corbyn government, or when they lose badly and turn the twitter mob (or worse) on someone to blame.

Pretty distasteful stuff, some of it, but -- and forgive my fading memory -- which party was it that has been attacking the BBC for the past two decades? Blue rosette? Posh bloke with huskies who lived next door to the chap with lots of jobs, I think. Which party was it who forced the BBC to publish salaries -- which unlike Corbyn's floated idea is not something you could discover from 30 seconds on Wikipedia?

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Video catch up on goings on going on down under:

ttps://youtu.be/Ab1I6bKKbjs

What a complete shambles!

When did we last see anything like that in the U.K., 1979?

Dura_Ace

stodge said:

Understandably, he is going to make it difficult for us "pour ne pas encourager les autres" to borrow a useful French expression.

You can't use l'interdiction after a préposition. It's incorrect and doesn't really make sense. What Voltaire wrote in Candide was:

Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres.

Words to live by.

DecrepitJohnL

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

Lol "traumatised" for making the beast with two backs as a 17 yr old ... - still she's been particularly conspicuous in brewing this nonsense hot sauce herself so geese, ganders, pots and kettles.

The fact is that the age of consent where they did the deed is 18. The age of consent is different all over the place but she should receive as much sympathy as someone in this country who did a similar thing with a 12-yr old and then tried to justify it by saying that that is the age of consent in the Philippines.

It is not just age of consent but the power relationship that matters -- even if in this particular case there is the distinct smell of compo in the air -- and in Hollywood the implication or even just the fear that you'll never work in this town again.

FrancisUrquhart

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

There can’t be many empty sheds in slough these days.....

John_M

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

Don't these people realise what's going to happen to this country? Colour me selfish, but I'm not sharing my turnip with anyone.

TOPPING

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

Lol "traumatised" for making the beast with two backs as a 17 yr old ... - still she's been particularly conspicuous in brewing this nonsense hot sauce herself so geese, ganders, pots and kettles.

The fact is that the age of consent where they did the deed is 18. The age of consent is different all over the place but she should receive as much sympathy as someone in this country who did a similar thing with a 12-yr old and then tried to justify it by saying that that is the age of consent in the Philippines.

errm ok... (I have no sympathy for her, or anyone in this in the case of doubt)

Yes sorry it's just so elegant to see her hoist by her own petard on steroids.

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

Lol "traumatised" for making the beast with two backs as a 17 yr old ... - still she's been particularly conspicuous in brewing this nonsense hot sauce herself so geese, ganders, pots and kettles.

There’s an awful lot of moving parts to this story. Ms Argento was the partner of Anthony Bourdain, one of several high profile American entertainers to have apparently committed suicide in France this year. She is also one of Harvey Weinstein’s accusers.

Pulpstar

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

Have noted a couple of things about newbuild prices recently - semis near Halfway in Sheffield are provissionally going up for 240k, that was the price of the new build detached houses built a couple of miles away around 6 or so years ago.
Barely 65 sq metre houses being sold for 50% ownership, 189k (Valuing the house at 380) up in Warwickshire. Seems housebuilders are starting to tap into the combined leverage (And v small deposit needed) of not only help to buy but also 50% ownership in order to stick new stock up at frankly massive premiums compared to existing stock.

Dura_Ace

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

DecrepitJohnL

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

Re freedom of movement being a stumbling block in Brexit negotiations -- since it is clear that no-one in government has any serious intention of reducing immigration, there is ample scope for lashings of Euro-fudge. Sorry about the broken record.

rkrkrk

Dura_Ace said:

stodge said:

Understandably, he is going to make it difficult for us "pour ne pas encourager les autres" to borrow a useful French expression.

You can't use l'interdiction after a préposition. It's incorrect and doesn't really make sense. What Voltaire wrote in Candide was:

Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres.

Words to live by.

Was rather hoping to see your take on Gavin Williamson and his bold, imaginative and innovative thinking:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7079320/gavin-williamson-tractor-budget/

Richard_Nabavi

Do I understand that Richard Leonard isn't exactly propelling Scot Lab to dizzy new heights of success?

Sandpit

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do I understand that Richard Leonard isn't exactly propelling Scot Lab to dizzy new heights of success?

Could anyone here pick him out of an identity parade of Scottish Labour politicians?

CarlottaVance

John_M said:

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

Don't these people realise what's going to happen to this country? Colour me selfish, but I'm not sharing my turnip with anyone.

It is so unfair! We've been warned repeatedly and at regular intervals of a BREXODUS ever since the referendum and still EU citizens keep turning up......

In fact, one agency that does face losing 30% of its workforce is the European Medicines Agency who are scarpering for the exit in inelegant haste....and its not as though they are going far, or somewhere unappealing. What if it had gone to Sofia, Bucharest or Zagreb instead of Amsterdam?

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Sandpit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Do I understand that Richard Leonard isn't exactly propelling Scot Lab to dizzy new heights of success?

Could anyone here pick him out of an identity parade of Scottish Labour politicians?

I hadn't heard of him until on here this morning.
So count me out of recognising him

John_M

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Barnier fancies being Juncker's replacement, but Merkel has other ideas. It's going to be interesting (in an academic sense) to see who gets the job, ditto the ECB after Draghi rides into the sunset. As you say, Barnier's gallery isn't the UK electorate, rather the EP.

Philip_Thompson

Its remarkable how many potential easy pickings there are for the Scottiah Tories. Wouldn't have thought that before.

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

Its remarkable how many potential easy pickings there are for the Scottiah Tories. Wouldn't have thought that before.

True, but there are potential easy losses as well...

Big_G_NorthWales

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

OldKingCole

Pulpstar said:

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

Have noted a couple of things about newbuild prices recently - semis near Halfway in Sheffield are provissionally going up for 240k, that was the price of the new build detached houses built a couple of miles away around 6 or so years ago.
Barely 65 sq metre houses being sold for 50% ownership, 189k (Valuing the house at 380) up in Warwickshire. Seems housebuilders are starting to tap into the combined leverage (And v small deposit needed) of not only help to buy but also 50% ownership in order to stick new stock up at frankly massive premiums compared to existing stock.

But, but, but, immigration from the EU is falling. I thought we could control our border, but the nasty people in Brussels insisted on us letting in all the EU citizens who wanted to come! Who ARE all these new people?

Sandpit

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its remarkable how many potential easy pickings there are for the Scottiah Tories. Wouldn't have thought that before.

True, but there are potential easy losses as well...

Could be a bit of both, say gaining Perth whilst losing Stirling.

CarlottaVance

John_M said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Barnier fancies being Juncker's replacement, but Merkel has other ideas. It's going to be interesting (in an academic sense) to see who gets the job, ditto the ECB after Draghi rides into the sunset. As you say, Barnier's gallery isn't the UK electorate, rather the EP.

And fate, and Brexit, may be conspiring against him:

While it has suited EU leaders to leave the talks up to him so far, they will soon smell the political urgency of doing a Brexit deal, and with each day will push him further from the spotlight.

Certainly, the U.K. wants to see the back of what they regard as Barnier’s inflexibility. It now has a Brexit secretary, in Dominic Raab, who shows up; and on Thursday the government will release its first batch of detailed contingency plans for no deal.

Across Europe, touring British ministers have spent the summer whipping up headlines about trade chaos and lost jobs the day after a no-deal Brexit. And at the European Parliament, MEPs see their right to veto any Brexit deal as a chance to seize more power for their institution within the EU system.

Barnier now has competition and it will only get tougher from here on in.

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-negotiator-weve-reached-peak/

Dura_Ace

rkrkrk said:

Dura_Ace said:

stodge said:

Understandably, he is going to make it difficult for us "pour ne pas encourager les autres" to borrow a useful French expression.

You can't use l'interdiction after a préposition. It's incorrect and doesn't really make sense. What Voltaire wrote in Candide was:

Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres.

Words to live by.

Was rather hoping to see your take on Gavin Williamson and his bold, imaginative and innovative thinking:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7079320/gavin-williamson-tractor-budget/

Come back Spreadsheet Phil, all is forgiven. Phil was as tight as arseholes with money but was at least sane.

The Fireplace Salesman is, on the other hand, very typical of a particularly repellent stripe of tory who likes playing toy soldiers but never felt the need to pick up a rifle themselves. He is also as thick as shit and catastrophically lacking in self awareness which doesn't help.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Pulpstar said:

CD13 said:

Sorry to go off topic so quickly, but very occasionally you read a news story that makes you laugh out loud.

The case of Asia Argento and Jimmy Bennett is one such.

He was a callow youth of seventeen summers (but an actor having grown up in a Hollywood environment), She as a beautiful film star of 37. When she took him to bed and had her evil way with him, he was traumatised by the experience, eighteen being the age of consent in California.

In fact, he was so traumatised he had to ask her for $380,000 to ease it. Conveniently, she was making her name by leading the METOO movement.

Am I a bad person to find it funny?.

Lol "traumatised" for making the beast with two backs as a 17 yr old ... - still she's been particularly conspicuous in brewing this nonsense hot sauce herself so geese, ganders, pots and kettles.

I wish I had been 'traumatised' as a 17 year old by an attractive older woman.
Or indeed at any other age wouldn't be a problem to be fair.

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its remarkable how many potential easy pickings there are for the Scottiah Tories. Wouldn't have thought that before.

True, but there are potential easy losses as well...

Could be a bit of both, say gaining Perth whilst losing Stirling.

Quite amazing that we’ve come from 2010, where not a single seat in Scotland changed hands despite a change of government in the U.K., to a situation where half the seats are ultra marginals and four parties can gain or lose a lot of seats on tiny swings.

John_M

CarlottaVance said:

John_M said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Barnier fancies being Juncker's replacement, but Merkel has other ideas. It's going to be interesting (in an academic sense) to see who gets the job, ditto the ECB after Draghi rides into the sunset. As you say, Barnier's gallery isn't the UK electorate, rather the EP.

And fate, and Brexit, may be conspiring against him:

While it has suited EU leaders to leave the talks up to him so far, they will soon smell the political urgency of doing a Brexit deal, and with each day will push him further from the spotlight.

Certainly, the U.K. wants to see the back of what they regard as Barnier’s inflexibility. It now has a Brexit secretary, in Dominic Raab, who shows up; and on Thursday the government will release its first batch of detailed contingency plans for no deal.

Across Europe, touring British ministers have spent the summer whipping up headlines about trade chaos and lost jobs the day after a no-deal Brexit. And at the European Parliament, MEPs see their right to veto any Brexit deal as a chance to seize more power for their institution within the EU system.

Barnier now has competition and it will only get tougher from here on in.

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-negotiator-weve-reached-peak/

Thanks for the link - don't know if you've seen this as a complementary article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-eu-ecb/eu-commission-not-ecb-presidency-is-priority-for-merkel-handelsblatt-idUSKCN1L71TV?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)

CarlottaVance

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

Have noted a couple of things about newbuild prices recently - semis near Halfway in Sheffield are provissionally going up for 240k, that was the price of the new build detached houses built a couple of miles away around 6 or so years ago.
Barely 65 sq metre houses being sold for 50% ownership, 189k (Valuing the house at 380) up in Warwickshire. Seems housebuilders are starting to tap into the combined leverage (And v small deposit needed) of not only help to buy but also 50% ownership in order to stick new stock up at frankly massive premiums compared to existing stock.

But, but, but, immigration from the EU is falling.

90,000 more people from the EU is 'falling'?

I think you mean the rate of increase is falling - but in absolute terms we added a town the size of Barnsley from the EU alone in the last 12 months.....

TOPPING

Dura_Ace said:

rkrkrk said:

Dura_Ace said:

stodge said:

Understandably, he is going to make it difficult for us "pour ne pas encourager les autres" to borrow a useful French expression.

You can't use l'interdiction after a préposition. It's incorrect and doesn't really make sense. What Voltaire wrote in Candide was:

Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres.

Words to live by.

Was rather hoping to see your take on Gavin Williamson and his bold, imaginative and innovative thinking:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7079320/gavin-williamson-tractor-budget/

Come back Spreadsheet Phil, all is forgiven. Phil was as tight as arseholes with money but was at least sane.

The Fireplace Salesman is, on the other hand, very typical of a particularly repellent stripe of tory who likes playing toy soldiers but never felt the need to pick up a rifle themselves. He is also as thick as shit and catastrophically lacking in self awareness which doesn't help.

Perhaps his only saving grace is that he is not Secretary of State for Scotland also.

Dura_Ace

John_M said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Barnier fancies being Juncker's replacement, but Merkel has other ideas. It's going to be interesting (in an academic sense) to see who gets the job, ditto the ECB after Draghi rides into the sunset. As you say, Barnier's gallery isn't the UK electorate, rather the EP.

According to one of my ex-students (I prepared her for the language tests) who now works in the Commission it's going to be Timmermans. The ex Dutch spook with impeccably anti Russian credentials.

CarlottaVance

John_M said:

CarlottaVance said:

John_M said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Barnier fancies being Juncker's replacement, but Merkel has other ideas. It's going to be interesting (in an academic sense) to see who gets the job, ditto the ECB after Draghi rides into the sunset. As you say, Barnier's gallery isn't the UK electorate, rather the EP.

And fate, and Brexit, may be conspiring against him:

While it has suited EU leaders to leave the talks up to him so far, they will soon smell the political urgency of doing a Brexit deal, and with each day will push him further from the spotlight.

Certainly, the U.K. wants to see the back of what they regard as Barnier’s inflexibility. It now has a Brexit secretary, in Dominic Raab, who shows up; and on Thursday the government will release its first batch of detailed contingency plans for no deal.

Across Europe, touring British ministers have spent the summer whipping up headlines about trade chaos and lost jobs the day after a no-deal Brexit. And at the European Parliament, MEPs see their right to veto any Brexit deal as a chance to seize more power for their institution within the EU system.

Barnier now has competition and it will only get tougher from here on in.

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-negotiator-weve-reached-peak/

Thanks for the link - don't know if you've seen this as a complementary article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-eu-ecb/eu-commission-not-ecb-presidency-is-priority-for-merkel-handelsblatt-idUSKCN1L71TV?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)

Thank you - hadn't seen that. Hasn't she already got Selmayr in place?

TOPPING

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1032558729919688704

Dura_Ace

Morenghi would be a very strong candidate but is felt to be a little soft on the Russian question. To put it mildly,

She's a very good French speaker for a non-native though. She could pass for Suisse Romande or even a native of Franche-Comté .

Sandpit

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

John_M

Dura_Ace said:

John_M said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Barnier fancies being Juncker's replacement, but Merkel has other ideas. It's going to be interesting (in an academic sense) to see who gets the job, ditto the ECB after Draghi rides into the sunset. As you say, Barnier's gallery isn't the UK electorate, rather the EP.

According to one of my ex-students (I prepared her for the language tests) who now works in the Commission it's going to be Timmermans. The ex Dutch spook with impeccably anti Russian credentials.

Interesting. The Germans are clearly looking to install at least some of their nominees in (at least) one of the commission or ECB presidency; I can imagine that many will balk at that idea, particularly if its Weidmann for the ECB.

TOPPING

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

CarlottaVance

Apols for re-posting - but this is riveting stuff - a well established respected democracy with even more chaotic and dysfunctional politics than our own:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/aug/23/turnbull-dutton-liberal-canberra-chaos-spill

kinabalu

Crisis GE next year. TM leads the Cons and they win. Lab junk the now failed 'project' and choose a leader from the soft left. It has to be a woman and so it's Yvette. TM presides over two years of brexit turbulence until another crisis GE. This time the Cons are no hopers. The country is not in a good place. It's a right old mess and they well & truly own it. So Lab return to govt under Mrs Balls and Betfair are finally able settle their 'Next PM After Theresa May' market. Those who threw a few quid at the ridiculous 600/1 back in 2018 are smugness personified. :-))

Harris_Tweed

Dura_Ace said:

The Fireplace Salesman is, on the other hand, very typical of a particularly repellent stripe of tory who likes playing toy soldiers but never felt the need to pick up a rifle themselves. He is also as thick as shit and catastrophically lacking in self awareness which doesn't help.

I can't believe people* were talking of him as a potential future leader. I saw stuff about him around the time he was appointed SoS which prompted me to keep an eye out for him on the news, and every time his performance has been distinctly sub-optimal. He barely shines as a Tory backbencher (in a not particularly strong field) - I can see how he keeps the old biddies of Perton and Pattingham onside, but that he's advanced to a senior cabinet position is worrying.

(*Probably his agent under 14 different pseudonyms)

david_herdson

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I agree. i've always felt that the December Summit will be crunch time.

Slackbladder

kinabalu said:

Crisis GE next year. TM leads the Cons and they win. Lab junk the now failed 'project' and choose a leader from the soft left. It has to be a woman and so it's Yvette. TM presides over two years of brexit turbulence until another crisis GE. This time the Cons are no hopers. The country is not in a good place. It's a right old mess and they well & truly own it. So Lab return to govt under Mrs Balls and Betfair are finally able settle their 'Next PM After Theresa May' market. Those who threw a few quid at the ridiculous 600/1 back in 2018 are smugness personified. :-))

Can I have what you're smoking?? The soft left aren't ever coming back. The party is under firmly the control of the far left, as they make up the membership.

John_M

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

The last credible report I saw on the economic impacts of 'no-deal' Brexit:

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/07/18/Euro-Area-Policies-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-46096

By 'no-deal' I mean WTO terms, as opposed to 'no deals of any sort whatsoever', which I don't think anyone but the madder Leavers is entertaining in practice.

OldKingCole

CarlottaVance said:

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

CarlottaVance said:

Yay! We got another Newcastle upon Tyne last year (Or a Birmingham every 5 years)!

Where did they build it?

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1032547461041143808

Have noted a couple of things about newbuild prices recently - semis near Halfway in Sheffield are provissionally going up for 240k, that was the price of the new build detached houses built a couple of miles away around 6 or so years ago.
Barely 65 sq metre houses being sold for 50% ownership, 189k (Valuing the house at 380) up in Warwickshire. Seems housebuilders are starting to tap into the combined leverage (And v small deposit needed) of not only help to buy but also 50% ownership in order to stick new stock up at frankly massive premiums compared to existing stock.

But, but, but, immigration from the EU is falling.

90,000 more people from the EU is 'falling'?

I think you mean the rate of increase is falling - but in absolute terms we added a town the size of Barnsley from the EU alone in the last 12 months.....

Which means the rate of increase for outside is rising, surely.

tlg86

On the migration statistics, the year ending March 2018 was the first since records began in 2008 that there was a net outflow of people from the EU8 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia). The figure was 2,000 (+ or - 15,000). In the year ending June 2016 the figure was a net inflow of 42,000.

Richard_Nabavi

TOPPING said:

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I don't think that's right. It's not 5-10% spread evenly across countries and sectors, it's specific sectors in specific countries which could be seriously clobbered. Politicians in those countries can't simply shrug their shoulders if even a relatively small sector of the economy, whether it be Spanish soft-fruit farmers or Maltese hoteliers, is badly hit.

edmundintokyo

Dura_Ace said:

John_M said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Barnier fancies being Juncker's replacement, but Merkel has other ideas. It's going to be interesting (in an academic sense) to see who gets the job, ditto the ECB after Draghi rides into the sunset. As you say, Barnier's gallery isn't the UK electorate, rather the EP.

According to one of my ex-students (I prepared her for the language tests) who now works in the Commission it's going to be Timmermans. The ex Dutch spook with impeccably anti Russian credentials.

The European Parliament seems to be pretty emphatic that they intend to do the spitzenkandidat thing again, in which case Timmermans would have to win the primary and the left would have to win most seats, both of which sound hard.

I know some of the heads of state have been muttering about not doing it this time but they've got a lot of other stuff on their plates, are they really up for a fight?

TOPPING

John_M said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

The last credible report I saw on the economic impacts of 'no-deal' Brexit:

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/07/18/Euro-Area-Policies-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-46096

By 'no-deal' I mean WTO terms, as opposed to 'no deals of any sort whatsoever', which I don't think anyone but the madder Leavers is entertaining in practice.

On inspection, that figure in Box 7 bears out my point (with the exception of Ireland) that the UK proportionately is affected far more than the EU countries. With the excpetion of a two or three others, everyone else suffers a <1% hit.

John_M

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I don't think that's right. It's not 5-10% spread evenly across countries and sectors, it's specific sectors in specific countries which could be seriously clobbered. Politicians in those countries can't simply shrug their shoulders if even a relatively small sector of the economy, whether it be Spanish soft-fruit farmers or Maltese hoteliers, is badly hit.

There's little publically available sectoral analysis, but per the IMF report, the economic downsides for Euro economies (at least in the medium term) are concentrated in Ireland, Benelux and Malta.

IanB2

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Its remarkable how many potential easy pickings there are for the Scottiah Tories. Wouldn't have thought that before.

True, but there are potential easy losses as well...

Could be a bit of both, say gaining Perth whilst losing Stirling.

Quite amazing that we’ve come from 2010, where not a single seat in Scotland changed hands despite a change of government in the U.K., to a situation where half the seats are ultra marginals and four parties can gain or lose a lot of seats on tiny swings.

Just as well that the swings are tiny, then, as in the UK generally; nothing is happening.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kinabalu, welcome to PB. Unless Corbyn walks, how does Labour ditch him? It'd take both the PLP and membership to want someone else.

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I don't think that's right. It's not 5-10% spread evenly across countries and sectors, it's specific sectors in specific countries which could be seriously clobbered. Politicians in those countries can't simply shrug their shoulders if even a relatively small sector of the economy, whether it be Spanish soft-fruit farmers or Maltese hoteliers, is badly hit.

@John_M's link illustrates it well (Box 7, Page 7).

John_M

TOPPING said:

John_M said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

The last credible report I saw on the economic impacts of 'no-deal' Brexit:

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/07/18/Euro-Area-Policies-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-46096

By 'no-deal' I mean WTO terms, as opposed to 'no deals of any sort whatsoever', which I don't think anyone but the madder Leavers is entertaining in practice.

On inspection, that figure in Box 7 bears out my point (with the exception of Ireland) that the UK proportionately is affected far more than the EU countries. With the excpetion of a two or three others, everyone else suffers a <1% hit.</p>

I wasn't disagreeing, merely trying to provide some collateral, albeit in the dubious form of an economic forecast. In the medium term, the economic impacts are modest, even with WTO terms. I note in passing that they assert that a Norway-like scenario would have 'negligible' impact.

TOPPING

John_M said:

TOPPING said:

John_M said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

The last credible report I saw on the economic impacts of 'no-deal' Brexit:

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2018/07/18/Euro-Area-Policies-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-46096

By 'no-deal' I mean WTO terms, as opposed to 'no deals of any sort whatsoever', which I don't think anyone but the madder Leavers is entertaining in practice.

On inspection, that figure in Box 7 bears out my point (with the exception of Ireland) that the UK proportionately is affected far more than the EU countries. With the excpetion of a two or three others, everyone else suffers a <1% hit.</p>

I wasn't disagreeing, merely trying to provide some collateral, albeit in the dubious form of an economic forecast. In the medium term, the economic impacts are modest, even with WTO ters. I note in passing that they assert that a Norway-like scenario would have 'negligible' impact.

Yes sorry I was just observing the contents of that box, not "arguing" (not that of course I ever do that).

david_herdson

Slackbladder said:

kinabalu said:

Crisis GE next year. TM leads the Cons and they win. Lab junk the now failed 'project' and choose a leader from the soft left. It has to be a woman and so it's Yvette. TM presides over two years of brexit turbulence until another crisis GE. This time the Cons are no hopers. The country is not in a good place. It's a right old mess and they well & truly own it. So Lab return to govt under Mrs Balls and Betfair are finally able settle their 'Next PM After Theresa May' market. Those who threw a few quid at the ridiculous 600/1 back in 2018 are smugness personified. :-))

Can I have what you're smoking?? The soft left aren't ever coming back. The party is under firmly the control of the far left, as they make up the membership.

'Ever' is a long time. There are several routes back for the soft left. They won't be quick or easy and I certainly don't see it happening in 2019, or even 2022. But as Richard outlined yesterday, either the left failing badly in government or in opposition will eventually take its toll. Enough of the Corbynite believers will drift off as they either get bored of waiting, shout 'betrayal' or become disillusioned.

CarlottaVance

1 - Nil to Mr Menon:

https://twitter.com/anandMenon1/status/1032552369362485248

Sandpit

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I think that Barnier, Junker and the EU institutions are absolutely being vindictive, and that Barnier naïvely expected us to have just rolled over by now.

The heads of government won’t take that attitude, they’ll want to see the usual massive dose of EU fudge applied to make sure trade continues smoothly when we leave, and they’ll want it soon to avoid uncertainty for things like holiday bookings and farm sales, not to mention manufacturing supply chains.

MarqueeMark

kinabalu said:

Crisis GE next year. TM leads the Cons and they win. Lab junk the now failed 'project' and choose a leader from the soft left. It has to be a woman and so it's Yvette. TM presides over two years of brexit turbulence until another crisis GE. This time the Cons are no hopers. The country is not in a good place. It's a right old mess and they well & truly own it. So Lab return to govt under Mrs Balls and Betfair are finally able settle their 'Next PM After Theresa May' market. Those who threw a few quid at the ridiculous 600/1 back in 2018 are smugness personified. :-))

I'd want 1,000/1 for that scenario to pan out.....

Richard_Nabavi

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I don't think that's right. It's not 5-10% spread evenly across countries and sectors, it's specific sectors in specific countries which could be seriously clobbered. Politicians in those countries can't simply shrug their shoulders if even a relatively small sector of the economy, whether it be Spanish soft-fruit farmers or Maltese hoteliers, is badly hit.

@John_M's link illustrates it well (Box 7, Page 7).

Indeed, but that's the long-term effect of WTO terms, whereas I think the immediate political issue (both for us and our EU friends) is the short-term impact of disruption, Like @John_M, I think it's unlikely that either side would be mad enough to countenance 'no deal' in the sense of allowing chaos to ensue, but you never know...

williamglenn

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I think that Barnier, Junker and the EU institutions are absolutely being vindictive, and that Barnier naïvely expected us to have just rolled over by now.

The heads of government won’t take that attitude, they’ll want to see the usual massive dose of EU fudge applied to make sure trade continues smoothly when we leave, and they’ll want it soon to avoid uncertainty for things like holiday bookings and farm sales, not to mention manufacturing supply chains.

The heads of government are the ones telling Barnier to take a hard line. Why do you think we've been begging Macron to call off the dogs?

TOPPING

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I think that Barnier, Junker and the EU institutions are absolutely being vindictive, and that Barnier naïvely expected us to have just rolled over by now.

The heads of government won’t take that attitude, they’ll want to see the usual massive dose of EU fudge applied to make sure trade continues smoothly when we leave, and they’ll want it soon to avoid uncertainty for things like holiday bookings and farm sales, not to mention manufacturing supply chains.

If you refer to my new favourite chart "Box 7", then you will see the estimates, which may or may not mean that France is unwilling to give up 0.4%-odd of GDP over the long term, but that there is nevertheless a relatively large disparity.

kinabalu

@ slackbladder

I agree it's unlikely.

But 600/1? That is double the price of Kanye becoming the next American president.

If Lab gets well beaten in the next GE the party will have some thinking to do. A change of direction is surely a not at all impossible possibility.

TOPPING

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I don't think that's right. It's not 5-10% spread evenly across countries and sectors, it's specific sectors in specific countries which could be seriously clobbered. Politicians in those countries can't simply shrug their shoulders if even a relatively small sector of the economy, whether it be Spanish soft-fruit farmers or Maltese hoteliers, is badly hit.

@John_M's link illustrates it well (Box 7, Page 7).

Indeed, but that's the long-term effect of WTO terms, whereas I think the immediate political issue (both for us and our EU friends) is the short-term impact of disruption, Like @John_M, I think it's unlikely that either side would be mad enough to countenance 'no deal' in the sense of allowing chaos to ensue, but you never know...

Ah yes well that is if rational people are in charge. Which in turn is a huge assumption, but no, I don't think we will crash out. The very silence* at the moment from Westminster and Brussels to me betokens a deal of some sort.

*Raab's "Protect and Survive" speech apart.

williamglenn

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TOPPING said:

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I don't think that's right. It's not 5-10% spread evenly across countries and sectors, it's specific sectors in specific countries which could be seriously clobbered. Politicians in those countries can't simply shrug their shoulders if even a relatively small sector of the economy, whether it be Spanish soft-fruit farmers or Maltese hoteliers, is badly hit.

@John_M's link illustrates it well (Box 7, Page 7).

Indeed, but that's the long-term effect of WTO terms, whereas I think the immediate political issue (both for us and our EU friends) is the short-term impact of disruption, Like @John_M, I think it's unlikely that either side would be mad enough to countenance 'no deal' in the sense of allowing chaos to ensue, but you never know...

Ah yes well that is if rational people are in charge. Which in turn is a huge assumption, but no, I don't think we will crash out. The very silence* at the moment from Westminster and Brussels to me betokens a deal of some sort.

*Raab's "Protect and Survive" speech apart.

I'd go further and suggest that they are deliberately stringing it out at the behest of Theresa May so that she can control the timing of the final showdown.

Sandpit

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I think that Barnier, Junker and the EU institutions are absolutely being vindictive, and that Barnier naïvely expected us to have just rolled over by now.

The heads of government won’t take that attitude, they’ll want to see the usual massive dose of EU fudge applied to make sure trade continues smoothly when we leave, and they’ll want it soon to avoid uncertainty for things like holiday bookings and farm sales, not to mention manufacturing supply chains.

If you refer to my new favourite chart "Box 7", then you will see the estimates, which may or may not mean that France is unwilling to give up 0.4%-odd of GDP over the long term, but that there is nevertheless a relatively large disparity.

Box 7 is about financial services preparation. Report looks worth reading though, so I shall do that.

John_M

That Raab speech in full:

'In the event of a no-deal Brexit, simply seek shelter beneath your dining table, assume the foetal position and wait to die.'

FrancisUrquhart

Last night’s Channel 4 News didn’t exactly go to plan. First they wrongly introduced Hillary supporting, Democrat voting, Harvard Law School Emeritus Professor Alan Dershowitz as an ‘adviser to Donald Trump’, before he demolished their holier than thou attitude towards the state of U.S. politics.

“Where is the moral backbone of Great Britain to have as the head of the Labour Party a virulent anti-Semite, a virulent hater of Jews and the nation state of the Jewish people.

Don’t lecture us about our political system as long as you have Jeremy Corbyn who may potentially become the next Prime Minister of England. Shame on Great Britain for allowing that to come to pass.”

https://order-order.com/2018/08/23/corbyn-virulent-anti-semite/

CarlottaVance

Sandpit said:

I think that Barnier, Junker and the EU institutions are absolutely being vindictive, and that Barnier naïvely expected us to have just rolled over by now.

I don't think they're being 'vindictive' - they are just responding to the forces acting on them - the initial approach of the heads of government ("don't rock the boat, and in particular Mutti who I've little doubt is happy with the very German (but counter productive) 'step by step' approach) and the ethos of the EU - which is to preserve and progress 'the project' against the forces arraigned against them - typically the elected politicians of their member states.

As the deadline approaches the heads of government - with electorates to pay heed to may well be more amenable to fudge - what with jobs and trade at risk.

Varadkar has been particularly 'brave' in his 'robust' approach.....and will pay the biggest price of any members if it goes wrong.

To improve goods handling at Holyhead, the British government has announced an ambitious program of works which will unfortunately close the port for 18 months. All other Irish sea ports are currently operating at full capacity. The reduction in Irish traffic will also help ease congestion at Dover.

TOPPING

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a rema

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

I think that Barnier, Junker and the EU institutions are absolutely being vindictive, and that Barnier naïvely expected us to have just rolled over by now.

The heads of government won’t take that attitude, they’ll want to see the usual massive dose of EU fudge applied to make sure trade continues smoothly when we leave, and they’ll want it soon to avoid uncertainty for things like holiday bookings and farm sales, not to mention manufacturing supply chains.

If you refer to my new favourite chart "Box 7", then you will see the estimates, which may or may not mean that France is unwilling to give up 0.4%-odd of GDP over the long term, but that there is nevertheless a relatively large disparity.

Box 7 is about financial services preparation. Report looks worth reading though, so I shall do that.

Sorry Box 1!!! BOX 1!!!

(Page 7)

John_M

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

TOPPING said:

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Dura_Ace said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Again you are making a remainer argument which is fair enough. The 40 billion you refer to are our legal commitments over many years and are not going over in one payment. I want a deal but also we cannot just roll over to Barnier.

It will be interesting to watch public opimion on this and remember the 17.4 million who voted to leave were by no means all conservatives as you would like us to believe

Barnier en a rien à foutre what British public opinion thinks. It's irrelevant to him.

Not if there is no deal. The consequences for his ambitions will be fatal

Precisely. If he can’t get a deal together soon, he’s likely to be sidelined as the heads of government take over, which would go down as a huge failure on Barnier’s part.

AIUI he has the complete support of the heads of government. Remember remember the critical dynamic: the UK accounts for 6-10% of each EU member's exports. The EU accounts for nearly half of ours.

Once that has sunk in, the whole "they need us more than we need them" thing begins to be seen in context.

So it doesn’t matter how much their own economies will be affected, as long as the UK is seen to suffer more? A million European job losses are okay as long as the U.K. gets 2 million?

I think if the negotiations aren’t sorted by the October heads of government meeting, those heads of government will start to take a much more active role in ensuring that a deal gets done.

I don't think it's vindictive, just that a 5-10% hit on exports, say, means different things to them and to us. Arguably, to them it is noise. To us it is far more substantial.

If you refer to my new favourite chart "Box 7", then you will see the estimates, which may or may not mean that France is unwilling to give up 0.4%-odd of GDP over the long term, but that there is nevertheless a relatively large disparity.

Box 7 is about financial services preparation. Report looks worth reading though, so I shall do that.

My takeaway was that this wide-ranging and technical report treats Brexit in a sidebar of less than one page (out of ~60), which might surprise some of our more febrile posters.

FrancisUrquhart

A knifeman has stabbed two people to death and injured another on a street in a Paris suburb before reportedly being killed by police.

Officers shot the suspected attacker after he allegedly threatened to kill them, shouting "Allahu Akbar" ("God is greatest" in Arabic).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45281902

FF43

david_herdson said:

FF43 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Corbyn 's speech on the media today is likely to be eclipsed by Dominic Rabbs speech at 11.00 outlining the no deal issues.

I do think we are approaching a moment that may see the mood of the Nation turn against the EU and in some part support a no deal.

All we hear from the media is 'it's all our fault' and yet Barnier's attitude to a punishment deal makes a fair compromise almost impossible but if and when Barnier is faced with a collapsed deal the attitude to those in Europe are likely to erupt in fury as trade across Europe stops and tens of thousands of European jobs go up in smoke.

Talking of smoke can you imagine French farmers attitude as their HGV's are trapped in limbo in Calais and their produce rots away. Similarly Irish farmers are going to be incandescent

The no deal scene is the end for Barniers ambitions and an EU crisis of unprecendented seriousness.

Lets hope grown ups come together and stop this utter stupidity

Grown ups think No Deal is a dumb option. It's only there to maintain Leavers' fiction that there is a better outcome than a close arrangement with the EU on its terms, which gives us less than before and maintain the fiction that there is a Leave arrangement that is as good as membership of the EU.

Which completely fails to understand why people voted for Brexit in the first place.

No Deal is a bad option; it is not the worst option.

The reason why people vote for things doesn't drive the reality. People vote for Corbyn because they want an end to austerity. It doesn't mean Corbyn will give them that. Brexit will give the UK less what it had before at cost of major disruption.and the loss of most of its influence over things that are important to us. No Deal is a fiction that avoids that reality. It isn't a negotiating strategy any more than voting Corbyn is an anti austerity policy.

TOPPING

Raab surprisingly unfluent, halting all over the place.

Hold on!! Medicines - we're happy to accept EU rules.

Sovereignty!!

What about the reciprocal arrangements, though??