That’s a good thread and is nearly all correct. The mistake is that the airspace slot booking service Eurocontrol is not an EU body, and UK membership of it will not lapse on Brexit. Banning a nation’s planes from overflying your airspace is literally an act of war. Ask Qatar.
Essentially there are two distinct issues with aviation and Brexit.
1. Regulatory, which happens under the auspices of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and provides licences to airlines, planes, pilots, engineers, air traffic controllers etc.)
and
2. Trade agreements, such as the Single European Sky (which allows eg Irish-registered Ryanair to operate domestic British flights) and the Open Skies agreements with the USA and other counties, which provides for reciprocal landing rights between EU and US/other foreign carriers.
Note that failure to resolve things here does indeed lead to all British planes, pilots, airlines, engineers, air traffic controllers and others being grounded on the day we leave. It also causes international chaos as nearly every large plane in the sky worldwide has lots of British parts, and British pilots and ATCOs work all over the world.
Issues around 2 are more politically difficult, but we need to be ready to sign a number of agreements on or before Brexit day, such as with the USA and Middle East countries, most of which should simply be rollovers of existing arrangements but still need doing. Adults would also agree to keep Britain in the existing EU agreements, given how many European airlines are in a very precarious financial position.
IMO we should quickly get ICAO involved as a mediator for the regulatory issues, it’s in no-one’s interest to ground serviceable planes and pilots around the world. It’s mostly bureaucratic problems to overcome here, rather than political problems.
Thank you. An excellent and rational analysis. Can you spare some time and go and work for DexEU?
The CAA have a webpage with their preparations for Brexit, including a no deal brexit. They seem to be on the case.
“The CAA has no direct role in the negotiation of air transport agreements, which govern the rights to fly between two countries. These are formal treaties and are negotiated directly between governments.”
Correct. The CAA are regulators of air transport, have nothing to do with trade agreements about landing rights which are agreed at government level.
As previously discussed, overflight rights (and emergency landing rights) are agreed by UN convention, not by the EU or EASA. The EU can’t prevent eg a flight from London to Dubai from flying over Europe’s airspace.
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
The most likely way of getting no deal is because May can’t propose any arrangement which all of her party will support in Parliament. It’s going to be tough to blame Barnier for respecting our sovereignty and failing to impose an agreement on us against our Parliament’s wishes. It’s also not really clear how that favours Boris - it relies on the public believing that his Secret Plan for Brexit a) isn’t crap and b) shouldn’t have been disclosed by him earlier to prevent the mess arising.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
All you can say about polls is they are a snapshot, a moment in time. To use polls to formulate policy and confirm potential leaders would be absurd but that seems to be what is happening.
Yes, they can be directions of travel but as an example on June 6th YouGov had the Conservatives leading Labour 44-37. Last week it was 36-41, now it's 38-39 so volatility within a small framework makes all the difference.
Polls are also not tablets of stone - they can be outliers with poor sampling or whatever. To make grand pronouncements about the future on the basis of a single poll or even a couple of polls is equally absurd.
I'd also add if you want the right answer it often helps to ask the right question.
Not necessarily, there have been several polls giving Unionist parties a majority even if the SNP remains largest party
Just not the most recent one.
Which still had the SNP down on 2016
But a Holyrood indy majority, which using HYUFD logic (I know!) means indyref II.
Only a very narrow one, even less than 2016 and reliant again on the Greens and other polls as I have said have a Unionist majority.
In any case Westminster would need to consent for any new indyref2 and 63% of Scots made clear at the 2017 general election they did not consider the Brexit vote a sufficient change in circumstances as the SNP argued when they voted for Unionist parties at that election
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
So most of our food does not come from the EU then. Thanks for the confirmation
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
The most likely way of getting no deal is because May can’t propose any arrangement which all of her party will support in Parliament. It’s going to be tough to blame Barnier for respecting our sovereignty and failing to impose an agreement on us against our Parliament’s wishes. It’s also not really clear how that favours Boris - it relies on the public believing that his Secret Plan for Brexit a) isn’t crap and b) shouldn’t have been disclosed by him earlier to prevent the mess arising.
No it is Barnier insisting on a border in the Irish Sea which he knows May and the DUP could never agree to. Until he softens his line on that there will be no Brexit deal even on the Chequers terms which most Leave voters reject as going too far for a deal anyway and that is before we get to Barnier's concern that May is only proposing regulatory compliance for goods rather than fully for services and the impact that will have on the single market.
As the polling shows already nearly 50% of voters are fully behind going to No Deal Brexit.
If Barnier rejects May's terms outright some supporters of the Chequers Deal will also swing behind No Deal with Boris the obvious successor
I have to laugh at the idea Labour ‘fear’ Boris. I actually think Labour would fear Javid more than any other candidate.
It is who potential Tory voters want most that really matters not who Labour fear or left-wing voters who would never vote Tory under any circumstance think would be best to lead the Tories.
In any case Tories supposedly feared Liz Kendall or Yvette Cooper but did not fear Corbyn in 2015 and look how that turned out at general election 2017
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Thanking you in advance.
I highly recommend Mark Kermodes new series on BBC4 on film, edition 1 on Rom Coms got me seeing them in a new light.
I would also recommend the NZ film "Hunt for the Wilderpeople" on Netflix, an oddcomedy, coming of age, absurdist critique ofmodern life. It is on Netflix.
Thanks yes I saw that Hunt for the Wilderpeople - agree it is great. Funnily enough analagous to some of the Brit films.
Will look at Kermode also, have read his books and I do of course like their R5 prog.
Do Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo still do the Friday afternoon film review programme on R5L? Used to be an unmissable show on the drive home, radio at its absolute best.
Yep it's still the gold standard of film programs not to say buddy radio progs.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
So most of our food does not come from the EU then. Thanks for the confirmation
So we produce 50% of our food, 10% is imported from around the planet, and 40% is imported from the EU. The food we import from the EU is to agreed standards, financed through trade agreements - both of which have been tweaked and improved over 40 years experience and now with 27 other countries. Hm, we will be looking to either improve our farms and food production processes, at what cost? Or we are going to have to enter trade agreements with countries around the world, who will be more keen to deal with a market of 400 million rather a country of 60 million with a reputation for being picky about quality and trying to force cuts in the price. Yep, that makes some sort of weird sense...
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
So most of our food does not come from the EU then. Thanks for the confirmation
Just 30%.
Of course these things do vary by foodtype, so lamb we mostly export, so will be in surplus if there is an issue.
This is a problem for farmers. I have a friend who sells 2000 lambs each year to a french buyer (it is a variety favoured by French gourmets). He really neeeds to know already that there will be an issue or not. He risks a major loss if they get dumped on the UK market. Good for British gourmets though, I suppose.
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Thanking you in advance.
I highly recommend Mark Kermodes new series on BBC4 on film, edition 1 on Rom Coms got me seeing them in a new light.
I would also recommend the NZ film "Hunt for the Wilderpeople" on Netflix, an oddcomedy, coming of age, absurdist critique ofmodern life. It is on Netflix.
Thanks yes I saw that Hunt for the Wilderpeople - agree it is great. Funnily enough analagous to some of the Brit films.
Will look at Kermode also, have read his books and I do of course like their R5 prog.
Do Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo still do the Friday afternoon film review programme on R5L? Used to be an unmissable show on the drive home, radio at its absolute best.
Yep it's still the gold standard of film programs not to say buddy radio progs.
Have you seen Romper Stomper (1992)? It has some similarities to This is England, but from an Aussie perspective. It was on iplayer recently, but not sure if it still is.
The 2018 version of Journeys End is excellent too, and didn't get the publicity that it deserved in the Spring. It would have been better with an autumn release to match the Armistice Centenary.
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Thanking you in advance.
I highly recommend Mark Kermodes new series on BBC4 on film, edition 1 on Rom Coms got me seeing them in a new light.
I would also recommend the NZ film "Hunt for the Wilderpeople" on Netflix, an oddcomedy, coming of age, absurdist critique ofmodern life. It is on Netflix.
Thanks yes I saw that Hunt for the Wilderpeople - agree it is great. Funnily enough analagous to some of the Brit films.
Will look at Kermode also, have read his books and I do of course like their R5 prog.
Do Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo still do the Friday afternoon film review programme on R5L? Used to be an unmissable show on the drive home, radio at its absolute best.
Yep it's still the gold standard of film programs not to say buddy radio progs.
Have you seen Romper Stomper (1992)? It has some similarities to This is England, but from an Aussie perspective. It was on iplayer recently, but not sure if it still is.
The 2018 version of Journeys End is excellent too, and didn't get the publicity that it deserved in the Spring. It would have been better with an autumn release to match the Armistice Centenary.
No didn't see Romper Stomper. Was quite notorious I seem to remember.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
So most of our food does not come from the EU then. Thanks for the confirmation
So we produce 50% of our food, 10% is imported from around the planet, and 40% is imported from the EU. The food we import from the EU is to agreed standards, financed through trade agreements - both of which have been tweaked and improved over 40 years experience and now with 27 other countries. Hm, we will be looking to either improve our farms and food production processes, at what cost? Or we are going to have to enter trade agreements with countries around the world, who will be more keen to deal with a market of 400 million rather a country of 60 million with a reputation for being picky about quality and trying to force cuts in the price. Yep, that makes some sort of weird sense...
We may well increase food production domestically and Gove as Agriculture Minister is ideally placed to do that while of course the trading agreements we negotiate with the rest of the world will cover food imports and exports too.
In any case the 40% we import from the EU is not going to completely disappear even if it becomes more expensive or more restricted due to extra checks in the short term
TSE: I don't know why you get heated up about HYUFD ? Just follow this logic. Think he is not that intelligent.......the rest will follow.
This is a betting site. I’d hate for people to lose money following his lack of understanding on polls.
You keep claiming that while endlessly ramping up people you have bets on even when all the polling evidence refutes your claims. Hunt trails Corbyn by 12% with Yougov today. Do you really think the Tories are going to make him leader with that rating? And you continue to ramp him up as next Tory leader to punters to put money on and accuse me of making people lose money!
What is your evidence to suggest that Johnson will win an election? All the risks on him are on the downside.
The evidence is Boris is the ONLY Tory potential leadership contender who would not trail Corbyn with Yougov today. Boris has also proved his election winning ability by winning two London Mayoral elections and the EU referendum
If the Tories want to change leader every time a poll lead changes, then they will need to fit revolving doors! There is also the issue of what PM Botis would actually propose as policy, apart from a bridge to France with a queue of lorries on it waiting for the border posts. Additional to the small matter of no election in the offing, and the rather delicious prospect of Boris losing his seat, were there to be one. Appointing Boris as leader (and his support in Parliament may not get him onto the shortlist), would be entertaining. If you are driving a car off a cliff, it may as wellbe a clown car!
Boris is not one of the amusing and entertaining clowns. He is one of the terrifying ones.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
So most of our food does not come from the EU then. Thanks for the confirmation
Just 30%.
Of course these things do vary by foodtype, so lamb we mostly export, so will be in surplus if there is an issue.
This is a problem for farmers. I have a friend who sells 2000 lambs each year to a french buyer (it is a variety favoured by French gourmets). He really neeeds to know already that there will be an issue or not. He risks a major loss if they get dumped on the UK market. Good for British gourmets though, I suppose.
British gourmets who may well pay a higher price longer term for quality British lamb
The UK will not be saved from crashing out of the EU via an extension of the article 50 negotiations unless there is a major realignment in British politics, most likely through a second referendum or general election, senior diplomats and European commission officials have disclosed.
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Thanking you in advance.
I highly recommend Mark Kermodes new series on BBC4 on film, edition 1 on Rom Coms got me seeing them in a new light.
I would also recommend the NZ film "Hunt for the Wilderpeople" on Netflix, an oddcomedy, coming of age, absurdist critique ofmodern life. It is on Netflix.
Thanks yes I saw that Hunt for the Wilderpeople - agree it is great. Funnily enough analagous to some of the Brit films.
Will look at Kermode also, have read his books and I do of course like their R5 prog.
Do Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo still do the Friday afternoon film review programme on R5L? Used to be an unmissable show on the drive home, radio at its absolute best.
Yep it's still the gold standard of film programs not to say buddy radio progs.
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Thanking you in advance.
I highly recommend Mark Kermodes new series on BBC4 on film, edition 1 on Rom Coms got me seeing them in a new light.
I would also recommend the NZ film "Hunt for the Wilderpeople" on Netflix, an oddcomedy, coming of age, absurdist critique ofmodern life. It is on Netflix.
Thanks yes I saw that Hunt for the Wilderpeople - agree it is great. Funnily enough analagous to some of the Brit films.
Will look at Kermode also, have read his books and I do of course like their R5 prog.
Do Mark Kermode and Simon Mayo still do the Friday afternoon film review programme on R5L? Used to be an unmissable show on the drive home, radio at its absolute best.
Yep it's still the gold standard of film programs not to say buddy radio progs.
The UK will not be saved from crashing out of the EU via an extension of the article 50 negotiations unless there is a major realignment in British politics, most likely through a second referendum or general election, senior diplomats and European commission officials have disclosed.
TSE: I don't know why you get heated up about HYUFD ? Just follow this logic. Think he is not that intelligent.......the rest will follow.
This is a betting site. I’d hate for people to lose money following his lack of understanding on polls.
You keep claiming that while endlessly ramping up people you have bets on even when all the polling evidence refutes your claims. Hunt trails Corbyn by 12% with Yougov today. Do you really think the Tories are going to make him leader with that rating? And you continue to ramp him up as next Tory leader to punters to put money on and accuse me of making people lose money!
What is your evidence to suggest that Johnson will win an election? All the risks on him are on the downside.
The evidence is Boris is the ONLY Tory potential leadership contender who would not trail Corbyn with Yougov today. Boris has also proved his election winning ability by winning two London Mayoral elections and the EU referendum
If the Tories want to change leader every time a poll lead changes, then they will need to fit revolving doors! There is also the issue of what PM Botis would actually propose as policy, apart from a bridge to France with a queue of lorries on it waiting for the border posts. Additional to the small matter of no election in the offing, and the rather delicious prospect of Boris losing his seat, were there to be one. Appointing Boris as leader (and his support in Parliament may not get him onto the shortlist), would be entertaining. If you are driving a car off a cliff, it may as wellbe a clown car!
Boris is not one of the amusing and entertaining clowns. He is one of the terrifying ones.
You sound like one of those loopy luvvies who were going to desert London if Boris became Mayor......
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
The UK will not be saved from crashing out of the EU via an extension of the article 50 negotiations unless there is a major realignment in British politics, most likely through a second referendum or general election, senior diplomats and European commission officials have disclosed.
And what if a GE leads to no major realignment, as is quite likely? Even if Labour were to win, the Brexit policy is not going to change - though I suppose we would have all the fun of watching Labour trying to negotiate with the EU and Parliament.
It increasingly looks like a disorderly exit is on the cards unless some sort of deal can be cobbled together by this autumn. If not, the 6 months from October are going to be interesting ......
The UK will not be saved from crashing out of the EU via an extension of the article 50 negotiations unless there is a major realignment in British politics, most likely through a second referendum or general election, senior diplomats and European commission officials have disclosed.
Interesting, the EU Parliament might not be keen to extend, the article says, since legal advice shows that UKIP MPs would be entitled to the full five year term after next (2019) EU elections.
With Bannon trying to engineer a massive block of Populist/Nationalists, getting rid of dozens of UKIP seems a good idea over in EU.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
It might be a mistake to assume the ERG is unanimous about No Deal or anything at all. The Cabinet can't agree and they are better briefed.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
It's not the ERG that will veto it. It's the EU itself who are not interested.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
So most of our food does not come from the EU then. Thanks for the confirmation
So we produce 50% of our food, 10% is imported from around the planet, and 40% is imported from the EU. The food we import from the EU is to agreed standards, financed through trade agreements - both of which have been tweaked and improved over 40 years experience and now with 27 other countries. Hm, we will be looking to either improve our farms and food production processes, at what cost? Or we are going to have to enter trade agreements with countries around the world, who will be more keen to deal with a market of 400 million rather a country of 60 million with a reputation for being picky about quality and trying to force cuts in the price. Yep, that makes some sort of weird sense...
Do you want to try to sell to a market of 400m people with a surplus of food meaning prices have collapsed or sell to a market of 60m that does not produce enough food so must import and prices have risen?
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As Ydoethur correctly states it is not the ERG who would force No Deal but the EU.
May knows she cannot push any more concessions than she has done to get a transition deal and trading agreement with the EU and stay Tory leader and the Tories are already trailing Corbyn Labour due to Tory Leavers defecting to UKIP without giving even more ground to the EU which would just accelerate the trend
TSE: I don't know why you get heated up about HYUFD ? Just follow this logic. Think he is not that intelligent.......the rest will follow.
This is a betting site. I’d hate for people to lose money following his lack of understanding on polls.
You keep claiming that while endlessly ramping up people you have bets on even when all the polling evidence refutes your claims. Hunt trails Corbyn by 12% with Yougov today. Do you really think the Tories are going to make him leader with that rating? And you continue to ramp him up as next Tory leader to punters to put money on and accuse me of making people lose money!
What is your evidence to suggest that Johnson will win an election? All the risks on him are on the downside.
The evidence is Boris is the ONLY Tory potential leadership contender who would not trail Corbyn with Yougov today. Boris has also proved his election winning ability by winning two London Mayoral elections and the EU referendum
If the Tories want to change leader every time a poll lead changes, then they will need to fit revolving doors! There is also the issue of what PM Botis would actually propose as policy, apart from a bridge to France with a queue of lorries on it waiting for the border posts. Additional to the small matter of no election in the offing, and the rather delicious prospect of Boris losing his seat, were there to be one. Appointing Boris as leader (and his support in Parliament may not get him onto the shortlist), would be entertaining. If you are driving a car off a cliff, it may as wellbe a clown car!
Boris is not one of the amusing and entertaining clowns. He is one of the terrifying ones.
You sound like one of those loopy luvvies who were going to desert London if Boris became Mayor......
Yeah.
It's not like we haven't learned anything new about Boris since 2008.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
It's not the ERG that will veto it. It's the EU itself who are not interested.
But the EU not being interested in May's deal is irrelevant to the Withdrawal Agreement which just needs some boiler plate text about negotiating an Association Agreement. The only potential show-stopper apart from Westminster is the Irish backstop.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
It's not the ERG that will veto it. It's the EU itself who are not interested.
But the EU not being interested in May's deal is irrelevant to the Withdrawal Agreement which just needs some boiler plate text about negotiating an Association Agreement. The only potential show-stopper apart from Westminster is the Irish backstop.
Which is looking increasingly like a deal breaker. May can't budge on that and the EU won't.
Mr. Sandpit, believe Hamilton was around 6 for a podium. Was probably around 11-17 for the win.
Exciting and dramatic, but frustrating as my bet was one position away from coming off.
There are times when you just have to set that aside. That was a stonking last third of the race.
Going to be a very interesting championship now. Ferrari clearly have, all of a sudden, an engine advantage which no one has quite worked out yet (probably some canny manipulation of the electrical energy flows to take advantage of the regulations), and have a new trick for blowing the rear wing in qualifying, which we should see them use in the next couple of races (& which will take some time for Mercedes to copy).
Not necessarily, there have been several polls giving Unionist parties a majority even if the SNP remains largest party
Just not the most recent one.
Which still had the SNP down on 2016
But a Holyrood indy majority, which using HYUFD logic (I know!) means indyref II.
Only a very narrow one, even less than 2016 and reliant again on the Greens and other polls as I have said have a Unionist majority.
In any case Westminster would need to consent for any new indyref2 and 63% of Scots made clear at the 2017 general election they did not consider the Brexit vote a sufficient change in circumstances as the SNP argued when they voted for Unionist parties at that election
As soon as it rained the result was never in doubt. Hamilton has now won the last 9 rain affected races in a row (that's a 4 year streak).
Even if you assume he'll win 50% of the races with his car (he wins less in reality), to come up heads 9 times in a row suggests he's a class apart in the wet, regardless of the Verstappen hype (which incidentally comes from a race in Brasil which Lewis won, and Max never matched his pace in).
The track was mostly dry. He benefited from a fortunate pit stop timing (for dry tyres). I'm not sure wet weather pace mattered too much (as Gasly found on his full wets...).
Not necessarily, there have been several polls giving Unionist parties a majority even if the SNP remains largest party
Just not the most recent one.
Which still had the SNP down on 2016
But a Holyrood indy majority, which using HYUFD logic (I know!) means indyref II.
Only a very narrow one, even less than 2016 and reliant again on the Greens and other polls as I have said have a Unionist majority.
In any case Westminster would need to consent for any new indyref2 and 63% of Scots made clear at the 2017 general election they did not consider the Brexit vote a sufficient change in circumstances as the SNP argued when they voted for Unionist parties at that election
By voting in a majority of Indy supporting MPs?
By voting in over a third less SNP MPs than there were before and by voting almost two to one for Unionist parties in the popular vote
This is surely the most interesting news of the weekend.
It is now fair I think to call Bannon and his fellow travellers - including Farage - fascists.
They promote nationalism, populism, and protectionism, and displays of power (all this Putin and Jordan Peterson worship), and are against liberalism, immigration (and often immigrants), and the judiciary.
I use the term carefully. I do not wish to make WW2 comparisons. Fascists are not Nazis, and note that for now Bannon wishes to exclude “ethno-populists” from his funding, although the distinction will be difficult to make in certain countries.
But, like the 1930s, it is time to pick sides.
Sadly for principled Brexiters (there are one or two), their cause has been hijacked by the fascists. This doesn’t make Brexit wrong per se but should give one cause to think.
"I use this term carefully"
Proceeds to conflate Jordan Peterson, a psychologist and self-help book writer, with Vladimir Putin, a kleptocrat who has likely ordered extrajudicial killings in his own country and on British soil.
Uh, ok.
To some people anyone further right than a wet Tory is automatically a fascist. Anyone who believes in the traditional family unit? Fascist. Against open borders? Fascist. Protectionist? Fascist. Brexit? Fascist!
Stop. Calling. Everyone. You. Disagree. With. A. Fascist.
What I can not understand is why these people can not see in the UK, a party that seems to have a problem with a small section of society, want to nationalise key industries and have a leadership cult of a "strong" leader. All three are traits of a Fascist Party.
What about a Party where policy is dictated by the leadership without any members' input, relies heavily on wealthy backers for its funding, places the flag front and centre of all its literature and meetings and falls back on "patriotism" as a default argument when all else fails? See what a silly comparison you make.
By "wealthy backers", do you mean the SNP's lottery winners?
LOL, SNP will not have a thousandth of a farthing of funding compared to the Tories, yet after 11 years they are popular and heading for another term , unlike the troughing Tories, reviled across the country.
SNP voteshare at Holyrood down on 2016 in the polls
would you like a small wager on them not being next Scottish Government
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
IIRC the UK imports roughly 50% of its food, and more than 80 % of those imports come from the EU.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As Ydoethur correctly states it is not the ERG who would force No Deal but the EU.
May knows she cannot push any more concessions than she has done to get a transition deal and trading agreement with the EU and stay Tory leader and the Tories are already trailing Corbyn Labour due to Tory Leavers defecting to UKIP without giving even more ground to the EU which would just accelerate the trend
I'm assuming that May strikes a deal with the EU. There will be many in parliament who will be tempted to vote against the treaty as a means of playing politics. But TM will contend that they will thereby be voting for a NO DEAL crash out and will be held accountable for that.
Vince was only ever going to be a caretaker until Jo Swinson returned from maternity leave. My feeling is most in the Party don't want a coronation and would value a contest between Swinson and Moran. As for "public profile", who cares at this stage ?
The Conservative Party, if it stands for nothing else, stands for the Union. It is philosophically and practically impossible for said Party to accept any arrangement which treats Ulster separately from the rest of the UK (unless of course it's an arrangement which Westminster itself has created).
A vote for Scottish independence would have finished Cameron as effectively as the EU Referendum did and if we are to believe HYUFD any deal which May puts forward which treats Ulster separately will be her death warrant as leader and Prime Minister.
Barnier and the EU presumably know this and are using this weakness/fundamental point of principle (delete as appropriate) as a bargaining chip to ensure a good deal for the Irish Republic and by inference the rest of the European Union because they are Unionists too.
Therein lies the rub - two groups of Unionists negotiating from starting points of trying to preserve their individual Unions while trying to arrange a separation and a divorce.
The track was mostly dry. He benefited from a fortunate pit stop timing (for dry tyres). I'm not sure wet weather pace mattered too much (as Gasly found on his full wets...).
It definitely hurt Vettel a lot. Didn't need wet tyres but skill on dry tyres in a slightly damp race was needed and Lewis is an absolute beast in those conditions. Vettel much less so.
The track was mostly dry. He benefited from a fortunate pit stop timing (for dry tyres). I'm not sure wet weather pace mattered too much (as Gasly found on his full wets...).
Even without the safety car, or even Vettel crashing he was on course to win. He averaged 2.4 seconds a lap faster than Vattel in the 5 laps before Vettel crashed, and there were 20 laps left.
Clearly that wasn't a full wet race - I'm just making the point that he ALWAYS wins if there is rain on a Sunday, 4 full years in a row now (Hungary 2014 the last wet win for someone else).
This is surely the most interesting news of the weekend.
It is now fair I think to call Bannon and should give one cause to think.
"I use this term carefully"
Proceeds to conflate Jordan Peterson, a psychologist and self-help book writer, with Vladimir Putin, a kleptocrat who has likely ordered extrajudicial killings in his own country and on British soil.
Uh, ok.
To some people anyone further right than a wet Tory is automatically a fascist. Anyone who believes in the traditional family unit? Fascist. Against open borders? Fascist. Protectionist? Fascist. Brexit? Fascist!
Stop. Calling. Everyone. You. Disagree. With. A. Fascist.
What I can not understand is why these people can not see in the UK, a party that seems to have a problem with a small section of society, want to nationalise key industries and have a leadership cult of a "strong" leader. All three are traits of a Fascist Party.
What about a Party where policy is dictated by the leadership without any members' input, relies heavily on wealthy backers for its funding, places the flag front and centre of all its literature and meetings and falls back on "patriotism" as a default argument when all else fails? See what a silly comparison you make.
By "wealthy backers", do you mean the SNP's lottery winners?
LOL, SNP will not have a thousandth of a farthing of funding compared to the Tories, yet after 11 years they are popular and heading for another term , unlike the troughing Tories, reviled across the country.
SNP voteshare at Holyrood down on 2016 in the polls
would you like a small wager on them not being next Scottish Government
No as even if they are that does not stop a Unionist majority
As Ydoethur correctly states it is not the ERG who would force No Deal but the EU.
May knows she cannot push any more concessions than she has done to get a transition deal and trading agreement with the EU and stay Tory leader and the Tories are already trailing Corbyn Labour due to Tory Leavers defecting to UKIP without giving even more ground to the EU which would just accelerate the trend
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As Ydoethur correctly states it is not the ERG who would force No Deal but the EU.
May knows she cannot push any more concessions than she has done to get a transition deal and trading agreement with the EU and stay Tory leader and the Tories are already trailing Corbyn Labour due to Tory Leavers defecting to UKIP without giving even more ground to the EU which would just accelerate the trend
Or she could decide the Brexit ultras are beyond reasoning with and tack towards BINO in the hope of getting former Tory remainers back on board. They probably live in more electorally useful places.
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are eal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As Ydoethur correctly states it is not the ERG who would force No Deal but the EU.
May knows she cannot push any more concessions than she has done to get a transition deal and trading agreement with the EU and stay Tory leader and the Tories are already trailing Corbyn Labour due to Tory Leavers defecting to UKIP without giving even more ground to the EU which would just accelerate the trend
Or she could decide the Brexit ultras are beyond reasoning with and tack towards BINO in the hope of getting former Tory remainers back on board. They probably live in more electorally useful places.
On today's poll the likes of Hunt would be on 29%, post Chequers Deal most Tory Remainers are already on board to keep out Corbyn, indeed yougov has a small Tory net gain from 2017 from Labour likely due to Remainers.
However that is dwarfed by the defections of Tory Leavers to UKIP while the same poll says 38% would vote for a new right wing pro Brexit Party and 24% for a new hard right nationalist anti immigration party. If May goes even further for BINO the Tories risk coming third behind UKIP and Labour as they did at the 2017 general election maybe even fourth given 33% would also vote for a new anti Brexit centrist party
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Thanking you in advance.
I assume you have seen The Guard? If not, it's a gem. Also, Submarine.
The Death of Stalin is now available on Amazon Prime.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As soon as the TV and mass media start speculating that 2019 summer holidays are at serious risk, opposition to any deal will evaporate.
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As soon as the TV and mass media start speculating that 2019 summer holidays are at serious risk, opposition to any deal will evaporate.
Not if we get another British summer like this one, foreign tour operators are already having to slash prices
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As soon as the TV and mass media start speculating that 2019 summer holidays are at serious risk, opposition to any deal will evaporate.
Not if we get another British summer like this one, foreign tour operators are already having to slash prices
Spherical objects, when Joe Public discover that they can't go to their favourite EU resorts, or when the people in the UK who rely on tourists buying from them discover that their profits have gone through the floor boards because the visitors won't be coming... .. Tell me, which lamppost would you prefer to dangle from?
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on s !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU. Even with no deal we are not never going to have any food imports from the EU ever again anyway even if they get more expensive.
If there is no deal ultimately it will be because the EU have refused May's terms for a trading agreement in which case the Leave voting majority will mainly blame Barnier and the EU if Boris takes over and we go to full No Deal Brexit
All these figures about people advocating NO DEAL are worthless. How many people really know the full implications of NO DEAL? I would say no one at all. Those who say they want NO DEAL might be much less keen once they actually got it.
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
As soon as the TV and mass media start speculating that 2019 summer holidays are at serious risk, opposition to any deal will evaporate.
Not if we get another British summer like this one, foreign tour operators are already having to slash prices
Spherical objects, when Joe Public discover that they can't go to their favourite EU resorts, or when the people in the UK who rely on tourists buying from them discover that their profits have gone through the floor boards because the visitors won't be coming... .. Tell me, which lamppost would you prefer to dangle from?
Since when does Brexit, even no deal Brexit, stop all tourism to the UK and Europe? Even if there are visas that does not prevent you travelling and a low pound would increase the number of tourists to the UK yet further while Leave voters would still get the immigration controls they voted for
If cliff edge Brexit leads to food shortages, lorry parks, mass factory shutdowns awaiting parts etc etc, then the Tories could elect Churchill as leader and still be slaughtered.
The first part of your sentence is partly ultra Remainer wish fulfilment and is why the government is already starting to stockpile and issue visas for vehicles etc to prepare for a No Deal Brexit.
In any case 46% of voters back hard Brexit even with No Deal with Yougov today and the Tories only need about 42/43% for a majority. As the polls also make clear if the Tories back BINO then they are far more likely to be slaughtered than if they back hard Brexit as Leaver Tories will either stay at home or switch to UKIP
You are pathetically weak when you keep on quoting poll numbers on hypotheticals. If there was a genuine shortage of food [ however, small and short-lived ] and there was panic buying in the supermarkets, please mention the 46% again. The response may not be just exasperation at your dopiness !
Most of our food comes from domestic sources or from countries which are not in the EU.
As soon as the TV and mass media start speculating that 2019 summer holidays are at serious risk, opposition to any deal will evaporate.
Not if we get another British summer like this one, foreign tour operators are already having to slash prices
Spherical objects, when Joe Public discover that they can't go to their favourite EU resorts, or when the people in the UK who rely on tourists buying from them discover that their profits have gone through the floor boards because the visitors won't be coming... .. Tell me, which lamppost would you prefer to dangle from?
Wow - do you actually believe that steaming pile of shit you just wrote?
Morning team. I will shortly have some time to watch a couple of films or some tv (2x 2h slots).
While yes I know I should finish reading A Brief History of Seven Killings, I wondered if there are any recommendations from the PB Arts & Culture Committee on what I should watch.
Wot I have liked recently/in the past:
Flint Town (series, but ideally no series, I only have 4hrs total, then again...) Any low budget-ish Brit film - eg. Four Lions (best film evah, obvs), Starred Up, Attack the Block, Eddie the Eagle, etc I also actually like the Ricky Gervais David Brent On The Road Beasts of No Nation This is England (film) Dunkirk (not quite suitable for a small screen) & obvs the Wire, Breaking Bad, West Wing, The Staircase, etc (all of course mini-series)
Thanking you in advance.
I assume you have seen The Guard? If not, it's a gem. Also, Submarine.
The Death of Stalin is now available on Amazon Prime.
In brief: a general election is unlikely to solve it because you can’t use a general election to obtain an incontrovertible mandate for any given policy so a referendum is the only option, but this time round it needs to bear less resemblance to something cobbled together by a mediocre and hungover undergraduate with three essays due within 24 hours. And possibly involve more than one referendum.
Comments
As previously discussed, overflight rights (and emergency landing rights) are agreed by UN convention, not by the EU or EASA. The EU can’t prevent eg a flight from London to Dubai from flying over Europe’s airspace.
OK, investigation of past crimes:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Thin_Blue_Line_(1988_film)
Low-budget British film, poss with an urban edge:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/'71_(film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Riding
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_(2007_film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/24_Hour_Party_People
If you want a bit more upmarket and happy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Fuzz ,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_End_(film) ,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snatch_(film)
If you want more downmarket and thuggy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rise_of_the_Footsoldier
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chopper_(film)
If you're feeling a bit IRA-ish
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunger_(2008_film)
British films you should watch just on general principles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Loop
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Long_Good_Friday
I forgot:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trip_(2010_TV_series)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trip_to_Italy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trip_to_Spain
All you can say about polls is they are a snapshot, a moment in time. To use polls to formulate policy and confirm potential leaders would be absurd but that seems to be what is happening.
Yes, they can be directions of travel but as an example on June 6th YouGov had the Conservatives leading Labour 44-37. Last week it was 36-41, now it's 38-39 so volatility within a small framework makes all the difference.
Polls are also not tablets of stone - they can be outliers with poor sampling or whatever. To make grand pronouncements about the future on the basis of a single poll or even a couple of polls is equally absurd.
I'd also add if you want the right answer it often helps to ask the right question.
In any case Westminster would need to consent for any new indyref2 and 63% of Scots made clear at the 2017 general election they did not consider the Brexit vote a sufficient change in circumstances as the SNP argued when they voted for Unionist parties at that election
As the polling shows already nearly 50% of voters are fully behind going to No Deal Brexit.
If Barnier rejects May's terms outright some supporters of the Chequers Deal will also swing behind No Deal with Boris the obvious successor
In any case Tories supposedly feared Liz Kendall or Yvette Cooper but did not fear Corbyn in 2015 and look how that turned out at general election 2017
Of course these things do vary by foodtype, so lamb we mostly export, so will be in surplus if there is an issue.
This is a problem for farmers. I have a friend who sells 2000 lambs each year to a french buyer (it is a variety favoured by French gourmets). He really neeeds to know already that there will be an issue or not. He risks a major loss if they get dumped on the UK market. Good for British gourmets though, I suppose.
That I have seen one or two of those shows it's an excellent set of suggestions.
I also forgot about 1971 which is not IRA-ish but is set during the Troubles.
The 2018 version of Journeys End is excellent too, and didn't get the publicity that it deserved in the Spring. It would have been better with an autumn release to match the Armistice Centenary.
In any case the 40% we import from the EU is not going to completely disappear even if it becomes more expensive or more restricted due to extra checks in the short term
The UK will not be saved from crashing out of the EU via an extension of the article 50 negotiations unless there is a major realignment in British politics, most likely through a second referendum or general election, senior diplomats and European commission officials have disclosed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/22/article-50-extension-unlikely-without-shift-in-uk-politics-say-eu-officials
(Goes to find podcasts)
https://www.youtube.com/user/kermodeandmayo/videos
In any event I suspect TM will carry her deal rather easily because she will present it as the alternative to NO DEAL. Apart from the ERG who will explictly vote for NO DEAL?
@EuropeElects
3h3 hours ago
Italy, Ipsos poll:
M5S-EFDD: 32% (+2)
LEGA-ENF: 31%
PD-S&D: 17% (-2)
FI-EPP: 8%
FdI-*: 3% (+1)
LeU-S&D: 2%"
It increasingly looks like a disorderly exit is on the cards unless some sort of deal can be cobbled together by this autumn. If not, the 6 months from October are going to be interesting ......
With Bannon trying to engineer a massive block of Populist/Nationalists, getting rid of dozens of UKIP seems a good idea over in EU.
Another great race.
May knows she cannot push any more concessions than she has done to get a transition deal and trading agreement with the EU and stay Tory leader and the Tories are already trailing Corbyn Labour due to Tory Leavers defecting to UKIP without giving even more ground to the EU which would just accelerate the trend
Mr. Sandpit, believe Hamilton was around 6 for a podium. Was probably around 11-17 for the win.
Exciting and dramatic, but frustrating as my bet was one position away from coming off.
It's not like we haven't learned anything new about Boris since 2008.
LOL and the Mercedes-Benz big boss getting soaked with champagne (and rain) on the podium.
'Lewis Hamilton: "What an amazing job by you guys. Love conquers all."'
Going to be a very interesting championship now. Ferrari clearly have, all of a sudden, an engine advantage which no one has quite worked out yet (probably some canny manipulation of the electrical energy flows to take advantage of the regulations), and have a new trick for blowing the rear wing in qualifying, which we should see them use in the next couple of races (& which will take some time for Mercedes to copy).
Does she have an even lower profile than the good Dr Cable?
Even if you assume he'll win 50% of the races with his car (he wins less in reality), to come up heads 9 times in a row suggests he's a class apart in the wet, regardless of the Verstappen hype (which incidentally comes from a race in Brasil which Lewis won, and Max never matched his pace in).
The track was mostly dry. He benefited from a fortunate pit stop timing (for dry tyres). I'm not sure wet weather pace mattered too much (as Gasly found on his full wets...).
F1 has a nasty habit of making one’s brilliant calculations look idiotic.
Edited extra bit: Mr. B, aye. Been doing it long enough to have had good and bad luck in streaks. This is more a deluge, alas.
NEW THREAD
Vince was only ever going to be a caretaker until Jo Swinson returned from maternity leave. My feeling is most in the Party don't want a coronation and would value a contest between Swinson and Moran. As for "public profile", who cares at this stage ?
The Conservative Party, if it stands for nothing else, stands for the Union. It is philosophically and practically impossible for said Party to accept any arrangement which treats Ulster separately from the rest of the UK (unless of course it's an arrangement which Westminster itself has created).
A vote for Scottish independence would have finished Cameron as effectively as the EU Referendum did and if we are to believe HYUFD any deal which May puts forward which treats Ulster separately will be her death warrant as leader and Prime Minister.
Barnier and the EU presumably know this and are using this weakness/fundamental point of principle (delete as appropriate) as a bargaining chip to ensure a good deal for the Irish Republic and by inference the rest of the European Union because they are Unionists too.
Therein lies the rub - two groups of Unionists negotiating from starting points of trying to preserve their individual Unions while trying to arrange a separation and a divorce.
Clearly that wasn't a full wet race - I'm just making the point that he ALWAYS wins if there is rain on a Sunday, 4 full years in a row now (Hungary 2014 the last wet win for someone else).
However that is dwarfed by the defections of Tory Leavers to UKIP while the same poll says 38% would vote for a new right wing pro Brexit Party and 24% for a new hard right nationalist anti immigration party. If May goes even further for BINO the Tories risk coming third behind UKIP and Labour as they did at the 2017 general election maybe even fourth given 33% would also vote for a new anti Brexit centrist party
Which one was Seamus Milne again?
Of course you will just feck off overseas and leave those most vulnerable to have their lives shafted.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/23/brexit-broke-parliament-people-fix-election-dilemma
In brief: a general election is unlikely to solve it because you can’t use a general election to obtain an incontrovertible mandate for any given policy so a referendum is the only option, but this time round it needs to bear less resemblance to something cobbled together by a mediocre and hungover undergraduate with three essays due within 24 hours. And possibly involve more than one referendum.