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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While the Tories tear themselves apart on Brexit LAB’s new antisemitism policy threatens a divide between the NEC and the party at Westminster
Just at a time when the Tories are totally split on Brexit LAB'S s divide on anti-semitism get widerhttps://t.co/T8UkCnGdWE
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Better to be the party divided about policy than the party divided about racism.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1020772857322893312
Shouldn’t he finish winding up the Lib Dem’s first ?
Though this is an illustration of why it likely won’t happen - there is no obvious leader.
The Tories deny they have a problem.
A more accurate reading would be that they realise other people see they have a problem and they are working how best to hide it.
No party serious about tackling racism would have Jenny Formby as its General Secretary or Naz Shah as an Equalities lead, just as no party that was interested in honesty and integrity would have an apologist for the Stasi in charge of its press operation. Yet Labour, unblushingly, have done all those.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/08/labour-antisemitism-opinion-poll
However, the one thing I would say is that while it shows how nasty Labour can be - they really are showing themselves in a hugely unflattering light at the moment - I doubt if it will make a difference to many votes. People tend to vote on domestic issues - especially the NHS and the economy. Labour remains strong on the former, and the Conservatives are struggling to cut through with a message on the latter due to their own, ummm, interesting handling of the Brexit negotiations.
The bigger danger for Corbyn is if a scandal along these lines breaks in an election campaign and sweeps his populist agenda off the news cycle for several days.. Which is why it is so very reckless of him to be upsetting Hodge who was a senior figure in his constituency association for many years. If there is anything new (beyond his support for Eisen) she is likely to know about it.
Sadly, I must agree this won't shift many votes, and isn't getting a huge amount of media coverage.
Mr. 43, the alternative to what Raab is saying would be nuts. Imagine we got no deal at all, including transition. Why, then, would it make any sense to throw £39bn at the EU?
Maybe Labour is right and its amended version of the IHRA definition is better than the original -- but who cares? It is politically asinine. Adopt the whole IHRA version and let those who want to criticise Israel find better ways of doing so (or just tell them to shut the f up).
https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1020722879380500481
(I don't know the answer, which is why I'm asking the question.)
Since the Milliband leadership contest hundreds of thousands of new members have joined Labour many of them attracted by Corbyn support for causes like Hamas
We may have to consider the possibility that they are simply rather incompetent.
Edited extra bit: a sound point, Mr. D.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2018/07/13/labour-and-anti-semitism-enough-really-is-enough/#comment-792229
Although I would add it's difficult to know why so many have joined Labour. Some may have been hoodwinked by Corbyn's Utopianism, or been angered by austerity, or just wanted to meet members of the opposite sex. It may even be a combination of reasons.
However given Corbyn's unfortunate track record of common cause with Holocaust deniers and promotion of overt anti-Semites to key positions racism is sadly not something we can rule out.
It also sets the dangerous precedet that members can walk away paying nothing to Brussels. You'd think they might want to avoid that....
Cable has been ineffective; he clearly feels entitled to the job by dint of his experience and doesn't need to make any effort. And if the Times is right he now has a bad case of Ashdown disease.
Some reckon it'll mean Raikkonen stays at the team.
If you're 'powerful' you cannot be a victim of racism, and that's why its so subjective. A white person can never be a victim, nor can a Jew. Hamas are always a victim. A rich white person gats double points, and a poor white person gets single points as an oppressor. It has the advantage of being simple, verging on child-like, but it is straightforward and you can see the attraction.
PS But I have to agree with Mr Dancer. This also seems a little arcane, angels dancing on a pinhead, when it comes down to tighter and tighter definitions, so it won't change a lot of votes. But the people directly affected may be pissed off.
So we are no further on than last December, and busy tearing up what was agreed back then. Who (EU or otherwise) would trust such a government with trade negotiations?
I'm intrigued by the second part though. Which war, from the point of view of British interests, is more serious or more directly affects us?
The OTT public attack on the main opposition party by those sympathetic to Zionism, at a time when the government is falling apart and is ripe for the taking, is not likely to help the future position of Jews in the UK. It is better for minority groups to keep out of the news.
Israel itself isn't helping prospects for its long-term survival. In recent days, it has not been far from the controversial headlines: the recent vote in the Knesset on the nature of the Zionist state, more OTT bombing of Gaza, and today the rescue of the extremist Jihadist so-called White Helmets from Southern Syria. I fear that in future, there will be a 3rd reason for surviving Jews to commemorate today's date in their calendar.
Bottas being 8.5 (9 with boost) to lead lap 1 seems oddly good value. He's only 2nd and Vettel's had iffy starts recently.
There's a special at 6 (half a point more with boost) on Raikkonen podium, Alonso points, and Hartley to be classified. The last one is 50/50, Alonso has a 70% record of achieving points (and starts 11th, although Hamilton and Ricciardo will likely be coming through) so it's a credible outcome.
There's a winner without Vettel market. Ricciardo is 29 (34 with boost). And there's an each way option. Looks a bit long.
But the most interesting thing I saw was Vandoorne at 7.5 (8 with boost) to win group 4, the other chaps being Gasly, Hartley and Stroll. Vandoorne qualified horribly, as is his recent pattern, but he has a good record of climbing through the ranks during a race. Also, the other three chaps are immediately ahead of him, and McLaren has performed more strongly than the other teams, generally, through the season. I think those odds are plain wrong.
Also, there's a seemingly low risk of thunderstorms. Given the accuracy of recent weather forecasts, you should bear in mind the risk of tsunami, hurricane, earthquake, and the arrival of Mehrunes Dagon.
Anyway, I reckon a pound or two on Vandoorne makes sense.
One of the many ways May cocked things up was to create DExEU in the first place. It was impossible to staff, required a press gang going into other depts to get bums on seats at all, and very high turnover as the new staff spent most of their time figuring out their own exit strategies. Then it was cut out of the loop anyway. Better to just have had the FCO do it in the first place.
http://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/
https://twitter.com/michael_hal/status/1020416933815046145
It's just dumb. There's no reason not to have a negotiated withdrawal even if there's WTO terms at the end of it. How many Irish air routes cross UK airspace? Or other EU nations likewise?
Not to mention the RAF guarantees the security of Irish airspace.
There’ll be no negotiation if the UK refuses to pay the money it has agreed it owes.
Anyway, if such can be negotiated, and it's a sign of just how well things are going that this is even a question, then that's all fine.
What this shows, I think, is less anti-Semitism on the part of Corbyn than his tendency to self indulgence and a lack of discipline. For a politician with ambitions to be prime minister this is probably fatal.
Although given some of the later things Khrushchev did - the shoe at the UN springs to mind - it was probably the most dignified moment of his political career.
Thank you to @rcs1000 and @Sean_F for the replies. Have a good morning.
Off to the shops shortly to see how far my Sterling can still go despite the inevitable despondency. Further reports to follow but please, DYOR.
He also murdered his pet parrot, after getting annoyed at the way it imitated his habit of hawking and spitting.
Nevertheless it probably doesn't do him any harm politically.
http://lawyersforbritain.org/we-dont-owe-the-eu-any-money#more-173
Yes, I know that the EEC changed into the EU, but doesn't this emphasise that the like Topsy, it just growed and growed. Surely these were add-ons? Why incorporate them into the very body of the organisation. It's almost as if it were a cunning plan to prevent an easy departure.
Ah, I think I've answered my own question.
It's like joining a gym, deciding to leave, and then discovering that they also are involved in setting and collecting your gas and electricity bills and they will cut you off if you do leave.
https://twitter.com/brianmlucey/status/1020603084806840320?s=21
Last Sunday I queued up to see Lenin in his mausoleum in Red Square, and the Kremlin wall graves, which was quite an interesting yet disturbing glimpse back into history. Stalin's grave had fresh flowers on it. At noon there was a procession of elderly pensioners, several wearing Soviet Era medals, behind an elderly lady, who carried a picture of Stalin like an icon in a religious parade. The crowd parted respectfully for the old Communists.
On the other hand the Finland Station in St Petersburg, has a statue of Lenin addressing the crowds, but the Soviet era station is now substantially a Burger King, giving a rather dischordant image. The New Tetrakyov gallery in Moscow has an interesting sculpture park of Soviet statues juxtaposed with a modern installation commemorating the unknown victims of the Totalitarian regime.
Russia seems to be struggling with some of the harsher aspects of its history, but then many countries do, not least Britain.
Despite attending EU meetings, I stuck to my own speciality. My woeful ignorance is genuine, and the more I discover, the more I think I did the right thing by voting Leave. Co-operation on the science side is a good thing, but becoming enmeshed in a political union is completely different. I accept that others think differently.
The UK QRA operational area specifically excludes the air space of the RoI.
This is what I wrote the last time somebody trotted out this blatant untruth:
British forces do not provide "QRA" for the Republic of Ireland as a) UK QRA is controlled by NATO (specifically ACCS) of which RoI are not members and b) The Irish constitution specifically prohibits that sort of foreign military activity on Irish territory. That's not to say that some sort of extraordinary help could not be theoretically requested in a highly improbably 911-on-the-Liffey scenario.
On all of my carrier deployments we were specifically forbidden from flying within 10km of Irish airspace. Such was the sensitivity to UK mil traffic...
While we should settle our debts so long as we get at least a minimal deal all deals should be reciprocal. If we only have a time-limited transition then their fallback should be time limited and any payments we make to them should be time-limited.
There's no reason we should go into the 2020 negotiations facing the same cliff edge but having already given away everything they want.
If we're guaranteeing the security of a 10km circumference around Ireland then we are de facto guaranteeing the security of Ireland. Unless you've got some magical way hostile agents can get to Ireland.
Since the EU have been unable to deliver a trade agreement to our satisfaction, the rest of the agreement will fall away.
What you are missing is that there is basically nothing in the Withdrawal Agreement that the UK wants, other than the agreement on citizens rights which we both know neither side will break even if it is never signed. So there is no reason for the UK to sign a withdrawal agreement at all if we go to WTO.
What the anti semitism row and the Cable meeting confirms is the continued divide between Corbyn and his supporters and Momentum and the centrist pro EEA parts of the Labour Parliamentary Party. The general election result bolstered Corbyn's position but the divide has not gone away
If you are operating in the UK and want to get serious about No Deal contingency planning you will be moving your operations to the continent. Which is undoubtedly why the government hasn't been energetic in promoting No Deal planning
If there is no deal, the UK Government will say that they are going to reserve their position on a financial settlement until such time as an FTA is agreed with the EU. The second after we leave with No Deal, the EU's negotiating strength drops to zero.
Always remember, it is a TORY BREXIT. They made the bed, they should lie on it.
Because almost 100% of Irish flights either fly over airspace that either that is above the UK or is at least jointly managed under international treaties by the UK.
Because shutting down British tourism imports would be destructive from an EU perspective.
Even if we go WTO there are issues to deal with.