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SystemSystem Posts: 12,762
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the two leaders prepare for lunch Betfair punters give Trump a better chance of re-election than TMay has of surviving 2018

Data and charts from Betda.io

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  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Zing!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Only 6.1% from his vote share. Spooky!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,194
    edited July 2018
    The thing about Trump is he is like Marmite, his conservative base love him and the liberal left loathe him. If he is up against a left liberal like Harris or Warren or Sanders in 2020 it would come down to who can get more of their base out as to who wins.

    May's problem is she is the British Hillary, she fails to enthuse her base and few Tory voters are passionately voting for her unlike Labour voters who are passionate Corbyn voters. Tories will vote for May to keep out Corbyn much as Hillary voters voted to keep out Trump and look how that turned out for Hillary in the end.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,622
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    Ironically Downing Street is now recommending MPs get a taxi to Chequers, which makes a change from last weekend. They also got the right minicab firm this time too…

    https://order-order.com/2018/07/13/theresa-mays-last-minute-invitation-mps-tea-chequers-today/
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Was on May to stay until after Brexit day, but have now cashed out at a small profit. It's a weight off my mind.

    In case no-one got here before me this from Guido is both telling and quite hilarious:

    https://order-order.com/2018/07/13/theresa-mays-last-minute-invitation-mps-tea-chequers-today/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    Mike, this isn't what this says at all

    All according to Betfair...

    Trump has a 40% probability of re-election in 2020

    May has a 38% probability of bing deposed in 2018, therefore a 62% chance of seeing out the year.

    62% > 40%, therefore May's chances of surviving 2018 are superior to the Don's re-election chances.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    Mike, this isn't what this says at all

    All according to Betfair...

    Trump has a 40% probability of re-election in 2020

    May has a 38% probability of bing deposed in 2018, therefore a 62% chance of seeing out the year.

    62% > 40%, therefore May's chances of surviving 2018 are superior to the Don's re-election chances.

    Ouch. And correct.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,622
    HYUFD said:

    The thing about Trump is he is like Marmite, his conservative base love him and the liberal left loathe him. If he is up against a left liberal like Warren or Sanders in 2020 it would cone down to who can get more of their base out as to who wins.

    May's problem is she is the British Hillary, she fails to enthuse her base and few Tory voters are passionately voting for her, they will vote for her to keep out Corbyn much as Hillary voters voted to keep out Trump and look how that turned out for Hillary in the end

    I think the May -> Hiliary analogy isn't bad. Also, like Hiliary not only does she fail to entuhuse people, she seems to have a bit of a nasty streak / surrounded herself with some e.g. people's dealings with Timothy and Hill, taxi nonsense, etc
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    edited July 2018
    Speaking of unconvincingly-coiffed racist buffoons...

    https://twitter.com/FactCheck/status/1017724216010035200
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    The thing about Trump is he is like Marmite, his conservative base love him and the liberal left loathe him. If he is up against a left liberal like Warren or Sanders in 2020 it would cone down to who can get more of their base out as to who wins.

    May's problem is she is the British Hillary, she fails to enthuse her base and few Tory voters are passionately voting for her, they will vote for her to keep out Corbyn much as Hillary voters voted to keep out Trump and look how that turned out for Hillary in the end

    I think the May -> Hiliary analogy isn't bad. Also, like Hiliary not only does she fail to entuhuse people, she seems to have a bit of a nasty streak / surrounded herself with some e.g. people's dealings with Timothy and Hill, taxi nonsense, etc
    Nah, large swathes of America, and American women in particular, hated Hillary. May simply doesn't draw that level of vilification.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,831
    El_Capitano said:

    Speaking of unconvincingly-coiffed racist buffoons...

    https://twitter.com/FactCheck/status/1017724216010035200

    You'd have thought fact checkers would be able to work these sort of things out themselves?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    edited July 2018
    RobD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Speaking of unconvincingly-coiffed racist buffoons...

    https://twitter.com/FactCheck/status/1017724216010035200

    You'd have thought fact checkers would be able to work these sort of things out themselves?
    They know what it is, the flag of apartheid era South Africa, they just want confirmation (and an explanation) from Mickey Fab.

    It hasn't been a good 24 hours for Mickey Fab.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It hasn't been a good 24 hours for Mickey Fab.

    A poundshop BoZo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    Yeah Fab's in trouble

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1017736179356192769
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Was on May to stay until after Brexit day, but have now cashed out at a small profit. It's a weight off my mind.

    In case no-one got here before me this from Guido is both telling and quite hilarious:

    https://order-order.com/2018/07/13/theresa-mays-last-minute-invitation-mps-tea-chequers-today/

    Yes - I just saw that

    Very telling
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    What is it with the Tories and floppy haired aryan nazis?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,857
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Speaking of unconvincingly-coiffed racist buffoons...

    https://twitter.com/FactCheck/status/1017724216010035200

    You'd have thought fact checkers would be able to work these sort of things out themselves?
    They know what it is, the flag of apartheid era South Africa, they just want confirmation (and an explanation) from Mickey Fab.

    It hasn't been a good 24 hours for Mickey Fab.
    I've always thought he's pretty odd.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,857
    El_Capitano said:

    Speaking of unconvincingly-coiffed racist buffoons...

    https://twitter.com/FactCheck/status/1017724216010035200

    At least he hasn't placed a gollywog underneath it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited July 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Mike, this isn't what this says at all

    All according to Betfair...

    Trump has a 40% probability of re-election in 2020

    May has a 38% probability of bing deposed in 2018, therefore a 62% chance of seeing out the year.

    62% > 40%, therefore May's chances of surviving 2018 are superior to the Don's re-election chances.

    Yes. You can say that Betfair expects Trump to still be President when Theresa May ceases to be PM, as the combined probability of May exiting in 2021 or later is 18%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,750
    FPT...I think the balloon is rather good. What would people prefer - an effigy as there was with George W Bush? It could be seen in the long history of British mockery non-violent protest.

    Maybe this ?
    http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/karneval-rosemontagszuege-in-koeln-duesseldorf-und-mainz-fotostrecke-158425-5.html
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Thank you for those who pointed this out. I have corrected the headline on the post
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,316
    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    I seem to remember some Brexiteers being incensed when Obama gave an opinion on Brexit. What has changed here hmm?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    Theresa's in "serious trouble" whatever Donald says...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    40% is not about equal to 62% either. Theresa May is much more likely to survive 2018 than Trump is to be re-elected, according to Betfair.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited July 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    Thank you for those who pointed this out. I have corrected the headline on the post

    Erm.

    "As the two leaders prepare for lunch Betfair punters give Trump about an equal chance of re-election (40%) than TMay has of surviving 2018 (62%)"
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,130
    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    LOL.

    It's all irrelevant. There can be no trade deal unless we fully leave the customs union. Secondly as Robert pointed out on the last thread the US would demand full agriculture access. No way in this world that the Tories would accept that. I imagine this is just one Brexiteer idiot.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    Theresa's in "serious trouble" whatever Donald says...
    The Country is in serious trouble.

    Replace TM but nothing will change. In the end the HOC has to sort this out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    Sean_F said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Speaking of unconvincingly-coiffed racist buffoons...

    https://twitter.com/FactCheck/status/1017724216010035200

    At least he hasn't placed a gollywog underneath it.
    He's obviously in support of a Dutch lead EU.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,130
    Is there really a single Tory who thinks getting rid of the PM on the back of advice from a US President as unpopular as Trump is going to play well?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FrankBooth said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    LOL.

    It's all irrelevant. There can be no trade deal unless we fully leave the customs union. Secondly as Robert pointed out on the last thread the US would demand full agriculture access. No way in this world that the Tories would accept that. I imagine this is just one Brexiteer idiot.
    Yes. One wonders why Mrs May is spending all this time and money when all she is negotiating is which way up the trade pineapple will be inserted.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,857
    FrankBooth said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    LOL.

    It's all irrelevant. There can be no trade deal unless we fully leave the customs union. Secondly as Robert pointed out on the last thread the US would demand full agriculture access. No way in this world that the Tories would accept that. I imagine this is just one Brexiteer idiot.
    The kind of trade deal that Trump would offer (requiring us to take steps to reduce our trade surplus, cutting food safety and animal welfare standards, and submitting to the jurisdiction of the US courts) is so bad that no sane person would sign up to it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    FrankBooth said:

    Is there really a single Tory who thinks getting rid of the PM on the back of advice from a US President as unpopular as Trump is going to play well?

    Not this one and it is pointless
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,750
    By way of contrast to our narcissist visitor:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44819416
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    Sean_F said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    LOL.

    It's all irrelevant. There can be no trade deal unless we fully leave the customs union. Secondly as Robert pointed out on the last thread the US would demand full agriculture access. No way in this world that the Tories would accept that. I imagine this is just one Brexiteer idiot.
    The kind of trade deal that Trump would offer (requiring us to take steps to reduce our trade surplus, cutting food safety and animal welfare standards, and submitting to the jurisdiction of the US courts) is so bad that no sane person would sign up to it.
    A trade deal would probably be complete after Trump is out of office. Isn't the real problem that what he said was true - and doesn't apply only to the USA.. he's a bit of a red herring here.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    FrankBooth said:

    Is there really a single Tory who thinks getting rid of the PM on the back of advice from a US President as unpopular as Trump is going to play well?

    I'm guessing weekend opinion polls will be very enlightening...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The Trump visit is certainly entertaining. Dunno why anyone takes anything he says seriously, though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1017745795276328960
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,408
    What a day. Feel quite embarrassed to be a Brit today but then again probably my fault for having thought the special relationship meant anything for the past 10 years.

    And what is this I see? Leavers praising a foreign head of state for speaking out and criticising the British Prime Minister.

    And they have the nerve to call others traitors.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Trump visit is certainly entertaining. Dunno why anyone takes anything he says seriously, though.

    Just said on the news that Trump's visit is going a lot worse than the government thought it would...

    Really???? :D
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,624
    numbertwelve said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    I seem to remember some Brexiteers being incensed when Obama gave an opinion on Brexit. What has changed here hmm?
    One was an intervention in a poll, the other is mid-term policy comment. I'm happily ignoring both.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TOPPING said:

    What a day. Feel quite embarrassed to be a Brit today but then again probably my fault for having thought the special relationship meant anything for the past 10 years.

    And what is this I see? Leavers praising a foreign head of state for speaking out and criticising the British Prime Minister.

    And they have the nerve to call others traitors.

    No need to feel embarrassed. If you were an American, on the other hand...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/TotalPolitics/status/1017744444483952641
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1017746989667282944
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    edited July 2018
    El_Capitano said:

    Speaking of unconvincingly-coiffed racist buffoons...

    MF has amazingly strange hair for a twat in his late 60s. He looks like Peter Noone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    Who are the 'most determined Brexiteers/Anti-May' amongst the ERG

    We can safely put Andrew Bridgen at #1 I think. Andrea Jenkyns at #2 ?

    Then we need 4 more.

    The Gov't HAS to adopt the Irish border amendment I think in particular.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,408
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TOPPING said:

    What a day. Feel quite embarrassed to be a Brit today but then again probably my fault for having thought the special relationship meant anything for the past 10 years.

    And what is this I see? Leavers praising a foreign head of state for speaking out and criticising the British Prime Minister.

    And they have the nerve to call others traitors.

    No need to feel embarrassed. If you were an American, on the other hand...
    They're just wankers. We on the other hand are colonised by wankers.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Who are the 'most determined Brexiteers/Anti-May' amongst the ERG

    We can safely put Andrew Bridgen at #1 I think. Andrea Jenkyns at #2 ?

    Then we need 4 more.

    The Gov't HAS to adopt the Irish border amendment I think in particular.

    Maria Caulfield
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,259
    Anorak said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    The thing about Trump is he is like Marmite, his conservative base love him and the liberal left loathe him. If he is up against a left liberal like Warren or Sanders in 2020 it would cone down to who can get more of their base out as to who wins.

    May's problem is she is the British Hillary, she fails to enthuse her base and few Tory voters are passionately voting for her, they will vote for her to keep out Corbyn much as Hillary voters voted to keep out Trump and look how that turned out for Hillary in the end

    I think the May -> Hiliary analogy isn't bad. Also, like Hiliary not only does she fail to entuhuse people, she seems to have a bit of a nasty streak / surrounded herself with some e.g. people's dealings with Timothy and Hill, taxi nonsense, etc
    Nah, large swathes of America, and American women in particular, hated Hillary. May simply doesn't draw that level of vilification.
    Give it time....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Trump visit is certainly entertaining. Dunno why anyone takes anything he says seriously, though.

    Just said on the news that Trump's visit is going a lot worse than the government thought it would...

    Really???? :D
    BBC just reporting that Trumps commnts have damaged TM but ironically have damaged him more as lots of MP's from across the political divide have come out in support for TM

    No idea how this ends up
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    edited July 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Trump visit is certainly entertaining. Dunno why anyone takes anything he says seriously, though.

    Just said on the news that Trump's visit is going a lot worse than the government thought it would...

    Really???? :D
    BBC just reporting that Trumps comments have damaged TM but ironically have damaged him more as lots of MP's from across the political divide have come out in support for TM

    No idea how this ends up
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    The summer recess cannot come soon enough. We need a bit of rain and everyone needs to cool down.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    maaarsh said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    I seem to remember some Brexiteers being incensed when Obama gave an opinion on Brexit. What has changed here hmm?
    One was an intervention in a poll, the other is mid-term policy comment. I'm happily ignoring both.
    Dissing the PM and bigging up Boris apparently nothing to worry about, much like Russian interference.
    But remove a bust of Churchill and it's HELL ON.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,541
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Trump visit is certainly entertaining. Dunno why anyone takes anything he says seriously, though.

    Just said on the news that Trump's visit is going a lot worse than the government thought it would...

    Really???? :D
    BBC just reporting that Trumps comments have damaged TM but ironically have damaged him more as lots of MP's from across the political divide have come out in support for TM

    No idea how this ends up
    The Brexiteers will see Trumps comments as supporting their view of Chequers. The Remainers and Trump Haters will see it as an intrusion and ignore his point.

    We are so polarised right now. I wonder what 1939/40 would have been like if we'd had the internet then?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    Jonathan said:

    The summer recess cannot come soon enough. We need a bit of rain and everyone needs to cool down.

    It's the end times and our capacity to be shocked has been scoured from us by repeated outrages. If I got up tomorrow and read that Leadsome had decided to do a porno, we were at war with Denmark and that Tom Watson had a single out I think I would just shrug.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,194
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Trump visit is certainly entertaining. Dunno why anyone takes anything he says seriously, though.

    Just said on the news that Trump's visit is going a lot worse than the government thought it would...

    Really???? :D
    BBC just reporting that Trumps commnts have damaged TM but ironically have damaged him more as lots of MP's from across the political divide have come out in support for TM

    No idea how this ends up
    Useless for May if most of those MPs are Labour or LD or SNP, only helpful if they are Tories in a no confidence vote
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Who are the 'most determined Brexiteers/Anti-May' amongst the ERG

    We can safely put Andrew Bridgen at #1 I think. Andrea Jenkyns at #2 ?

    Then we need 4 more.

    The Gov't HAS to adopt the Irish border amendment I think in particular.

    Would any of Labour's Brexit rebels vote for the trade bill?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    Pulpstar said:

    Who are the 'most determined Brexiteers/Anti-May' amongst the ERG

    We can safely put Andrew Bridgen at #1 I think. Andrea Jenkyns at #2 ?

    Then we need 4 more.

    The Gov't HAS to adopt the Irish border amendment I think in particular.

    Steve Baker.

    Maybe David Davis & JRM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,194
    FrankBooth said:

    Is there really a single Tory who thinks getting rid of the PM on the back of advice from a US President as unpopular as Trump is going to play well?

    Given the Tories are behind Labour in polls for the first time in months and UKIP polling their highest voteshare for a year and a half don't think staying on the current course is helping the Tories vote much either
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,889
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    The summer recess cannot come soon enough. We need a bit of rain and everyone needs to cool down.

    It's the end times and our capacity to be shocked has been scoured from us by repeated outrages. If I got up tomorrow and read that Leadsome had decided to do a porno, we were at war with Denmark and that Tom Watson had a single out I think I would just shrug.
    MM. Not sure how I would rank those 3, either in probability or personal preference order.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MarqueeMark said:

    Anorak said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    The thing about Trump is he is like Marmite, his conservative base love him and the liberal left loathe him. If he is up against a left liberal like Warren or Sanders in 2020 it would cone down to who can get more of their base out as to who wins.

    May's problem is she is the British Hillary, she fails to enthuse her base and few Tory voters are passionately voting for her, they will vote for her to keep out Corbyn much as Hillary voters voted to keep out Trump and look how that turned out for Hillary in the end

    I think the May -> Hiliary analogy isn't bad. Also, like Hiliary not only does she fail to entuhuse people, she seems to have a bit of a nasty streak / surrounded herself with some e.g. people's dealings with Timothy and Hill, taxi nonsense, etc
    Nah, large swathes of America, and American women in particular, hated Hillary. May simply doesn't draw that level of vilification.
    Give it time....
    She is doing her best to reach that level.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,194
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah Fab's in trouble

    https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1017736179356192769

    Fabricant also has a flag of the Soviet Union in his office, does that make him a Communist? No just reflects he visited apartheid South Africa and Communist Russia and keeps flags of nations he has visited


    https://mobile.twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1017743964710072321
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,622
    edited July 2018
    Well that was worth all the fuss....

    Balloon of ‘baby’ Trump that sparked row taken down after just TWO hours

    Social media seem to be disappointed with its size...unlike the real Trump, who told us in no uncertain terms he has no problem in the size department.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    FrankBooth said:

    Is there really a single Tory who thinks getting rid of the PM on the back of advice from a US President as unpopular as Trump is going to play well?

    I don't think anyone needs Trump to tell them how piss poor May is tbh
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1017750364785922048
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,747
    FrankBooth said:

    Is there really a single Tory who thinks getting rid of the PM on the back of advice from a US President as unpopular as Trump is going to play well?

    Conversely, if it is so blindingly obvious that she should be replaced that even Donald Trump can see it....

    For the record I think she should be there until the deal is done, hopefully in October, and then the Tories should get rid. The kind of incompetence shown at both the last election and since in deferring essential decisions to the detriment of the national interest really needs to be penalised.

    There is a risk that the deal will not be done until 2019 which makes the 2018 bet unattractive. Also my view may well be a minority one. But the clock is ticking. A lot of Tories and potential Tory voters will be appalled if they are asked to vote for May to keep out Corbyn once again. I probably would because of the SNP angle in Scotland but I sure wouldn't feel good about it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    When's the Donald/Tessa presser?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    When's the Donald/Tessa presser?

    Scheduled to start at 13:45.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    edited July 2018
    OblitusSumMe said:

    GIN1138 said:

    When's the Donald/Tessa presser?

    Scheduled to start at 13:45.
    Any minute then... :D
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,021
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1017735376415444994

    He'd rather deal with a man e.g. Boris, so not much chance of him throwing her a lifejacket now.
    LOL.

    It's all irrelevant. There can be no trade deal unless we fully leave the customs union. Secondly as Robert pointed out on the last thread the US would demand full agriculture access. No way in this world that the Tories would accept that. I imagine this is just one Brexiteer idiot.
    The kind of trade deal that Trump would offer (requiring us to take steps to reduce our trade surplus, cutting food safety and animal welfare standards, and submitting to the jurisdiction of the US courts) is so bad that no sane person would sign up to it.
    A trade deal would probably be complete after Trump is out of office. Isn't the real problem that what he said was true - and doesn't apply only to the USA.. he's a bit of a red herring here.
    Yes and no, an argument remainers have been making since Brexit, but especially since Trump's election is that the trade-offs for these lovely new trade deals will be worse than the ones we make to be a member of the EU - or at the very least will be very unpopular. The problem is also congress - who will have to ratify a deal and who, in the Senate at least are lopsidedly dominated by agribusiness interests. There's a specific problem with Trump though and that the direction he's set America on in that he's likely made it politically impossible for any U.S. leader in the coming decade to sign a deal which isn't hugely rigged in America's favour. Even a Democrat looking to oust Trump isn't going to run as a great defender of global trade - they'll make populist noises on it.

    Second, it's just so astonishing for a the leader of an ally to break protocol in this way and side with a PM's political enemies at such a sensitive time - and in a way that could almost be specifically designed to cause her maximum trouble.

    Imagine if when Gordon Brown was desperately trying to put together a global banking deal, Obama had turned up, trashed it in the crassest terms, said he thought David Miliband would make a good PM and threw a few insulting asides in about the country for good measure.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,961
    I don't think anyone really care's about him insulting Theresa May but if he does/says anything inappropriate with HMQ we'll have to kick him out the country... ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,622
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think anyone really care's about him insulting Theresa May but if he does/says anything inappropriate with HMQ we'll have to kick him out the country... ;)

    I doubt Queenie would take it...whack with the old handbag I reckon.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,857
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who are the 'most determined Brexiteers/Anti-May' amongst the ERG

    We can safely put Andrew Bridgen at #1 I think. Andrea Jenkyns at #2 ?

    Then we need 4 more.

    The Gov't HAS to adopt the Irish border amendment I think in particular.

    Would any of Labour's Brexit rebels vote for the trade bill?
    I think so.

    I'm not quite sure how Brexiteers voting against the Trade Bill helps to achieve Brexit..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,622
    £20k doesn't get you much balloon does it...

    https://order-order.com/2018/07/13/trump-balloon-flying-london-not/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    GIN1138 said:

    I don't think anyone really care's about him insulting Theresa May but if he does/says anything inappropriate with HMQ we'll have to kick him out the country... ;)

    Judging by the reaction very many care about him insulting TM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    Well

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1017721695984082944
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    Here they come.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,622
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1017721695984082944

    I have a feeling the taxpayer is going to be hit in the pocket.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    Now starting
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    Oh God, they are holding hands again.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,747
    edited July 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The Trump visit is certainly entertaining. Dunno why anyone takes anything he says seriously, though.

    His record in implementing his campaign promises is way better than most. This is not always a good thing of course.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jonathan said:

    The summer recess cannot come soon enough. We need a bit of rain and everyone needs to cool down.

    It's the end times and our capacity to be shocked has been scoured from us by repeated outrages. If I got up tomorrow and read that Leadsome had decided to do a porno, we were at war with Denmark and that Tom Watson had a single out I think I would just shrug.
    Not again.

    "Leadsome 3 - Wet and Windy" was rubbish, I've experienced all the Danish violence I need at the Westfield Lego store and Tom Watson rapping Unchained Melody is something I don't want to hear twice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017753857156403200
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,408
    She has her calm speaking voice on. Not broken yet. I suppose that will be for the questions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    Donald and me
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,301
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017753857156403200

    A real gentleman.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    hello PB, first time I have commented since the days of "Tim", if anyone remembers him! I had a different moniker then, but enjoyed being the scourge of headbangers on the right and left. HYUFD and his deranged rantings at anyone without his "pure" world view have brought me back out of retirement!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    Did TM just announce an agreed trade deal talks.

    See what Trump says
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    From the Guardian: "Theresa May and Donald Trump are coming to the press conference. There is some hand-holding, because there are steps; Trump has a phobia of steps."

    Insert obvious Dalek joke here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,622
    El_Capitano said:

    From the Guardian: "Theresa May and Donald Trump are coming to the press conference. There is some hand-holding, because there are steps; Trump has a phobia of steps."

    Insert obvious Dalek joke here.

    Is there anything Trump doesn't have a phobia of?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,194
    edited July 2018
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    hello PB, first time I have commented since the days of "Tim", if anyone remembers him! I had a different moniker then, but enjoyed being the scourge of headbangers on the right and left. HYUFD and his deranged rantings at anyone without his "pure" world view have brought me back out of retirement!

    If stating the obvious point that if you claim to be a Tory loyalist and voted for Blair or if you claim to be a Labour loyalist but voted for Cameron is rather contradictory makes me 'a deranged ranter' then fine, I welcome the label!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Trump is a friend of hard Brexit; says it all!
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Donald on script is just so false. Lets have the "real" Donald back with his stand up comedian act.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,408
    He heard about Chequers in history class?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,321
    Remember Trump isn't talking to you in Great Britain.
    He's talking to his supporters in Great America.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,831
    ralphmalph said:

    Donald on script is just so false. Lets have the "real" Donald back with his stand up comedian act.

    Wait for the questions :p
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,055
    HYUFD said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    hello PB, first time I have commented since the days of "Tim", if anyone remembers him! I had a different moniker then, but enjoyed being the scourge of headbangers on the right and left. HYUFD and his deranged rantings at anyone without his "pure" world view have brought me back out of retirement!

    If stating the obvious point that if you claim to be a Tory loyalist and voted for Blair or if you claim to be a Labour loyalist but voted for Cameron makes me 'a deranged ranter' then fine
    No it is not but in my case it is not only unfair but unnecessary
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,561
    https://twitter.com/Tony_Robinson/status/1017746545368879104
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    The real question that needs to asked is "Who is brave enough to play golf with him?"
This discussion has been closed.

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