And before the "if it goes the same way crowd" start, it can't go "the same way" because unicorns and rainbows will not be on the ballot next time.
If the Chequers deal were agreed by the EU (and I share David Herdson's scepticism) it would not be possible for the Remain side to convincingly argue that there would be horrors in store,
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
It's not in the EU's interests to move quickly on this. It's in the EU's interests to run down the clock to turn the thumbscrews on May and let the panic build.
Of course it is. Hence my previous suggestion that unless we quickly get a deal/no-deal response, we announce that we are starting to spend the £39bn at £1bn/week until a deal gets done.
Just throwing money at something isn't necessarily a solution (haven't we heard that line from PB Tories again and again over the years?). For instance, how long will it take to recruit and adequately train the customs officers necessary for a no-deal Brexit next March?
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
It's not in the EU's interests to move quickly on this. It's in the EU's interests to run down the clock to turn the thumbscrews on May and let the panic build.
Of course it is. Hence my previous suggestion that unless we quickly get a deal/no-deal response, we announce that we are starting to spend the £39bn at £1bn/week until a deal gets done.
Surely the deal has to be approved by the EU Parliament - that won't be quick.
Yes it does need to go through the Parliament - one of those things that should be a formality in theory but in practice, well its the EU Parliament.
That Remainers are piling in to rubbish the suggestion that we start seriously preparing for the no-deal scenario gives the impression that they would prefer us to crash out unprepared.
Good to see that Trump was met by an appropriately high level delegation - The US President and First Lady were greeted by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, the Queen's representative and the chief operating officer of Stansted Airport...
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
We might disagree on many things, Big G, but of late you have been the voice of Tory reason.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Brexiteers are more like 45% of the parliamentary party, old chum. We are certainly a clear majority of activists and Tory voters.
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Welcome on board Big G. I am sorry to say that this was always where we would end up.
Can't remember whether you were a Leaver or Remainer but this is no surprise to many of us.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
It's not in the EU's interests to move quickly on this. It's in the EU's interests to run down the clock to turn the thumbscrews on May and let the panic build.
Of course it is. Hence my previous suggestion that unless we quickly get a deal/no-deal response, we announce that we are starting to spend the £39bn at £1bn/week until a deal gets done.
Just throwing money at something isn't necessarily a solution (haven't we heard that line from PB Tories again and again over the years?). For instance, how long will it take to recruit and adequately train the customs officers necessary for a no-deal Brexit next March?
Throwing money at the problem doesn’t always provide an optimum solution in terms of readiness or value for money, but it’s a hell of a lot better than meekly handing it to the EU as they run the clock down to no deal.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
That was "no negotiation with the EU", when the cabinet has spent the last 18 months negotiating only with itself.
It was an act of manifest incompetence on a massive scale that May was allowed to press the big red start button before she had the slightest fucking idea where she wanted to end up.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
If Theresa May cannot get a deal, then I would reluctantly favour a No Deal Brexit.
Good to see that Trump was met by an appropriately high level delegation - The US President and First Lady were greeted by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, the Queen's representative and the chief operating officer of Stansted Airport...
May is really not going out of her way to hide her distaste is she?
Good to see that Trump was met by an appropriately high level delegation - The US President and First Lady were greeted by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, the Queen's representative and the chief operating officer of Stansted Airport...
May is really not going out of her way to hide her distaste is she?
And before the "if it goes the same way crowd" start, it can't go "the same way" because unicorns and rainbows will not be on the ballot next time.
If the Chequers deal were agreed by the EU (and I share David Herdson's scepticism) it would not be possible for the Remain side to convincingly argue that there would be horrors in store,
Oh I don't know about that - the Facilitated Customs wotsit looks a right faff with us taking the higher tariff on entry, and then reimbursing you if it didn't end up where you expected. So I import 20 widgets, sell them over the internet and pay up, have to track who buys them and claim back the ones sold to the UK market. I reckon once businesses get their heads round that there will be some howls.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
That was "no negotiation with the EU", when the cabinet has spent the last 18 months negotiating only with itself.
It was an act of manifest incompetence on a massive scale that May was allowed to press the big red start button before she had the slightest fucking idea where she wanted to end up.
And before the "if it goes the same way crowd" start, it can't go "the same way" because unicorns and rainbows will not be on the ballot next time.
If the Chequers deal were agreed by the EU (and I share David Herdson's scepticism) it would not be possible for the Remain side to convincingly argue that there would be horrors in store,
Oh I don't know about that - the Facilitated Customs wotsit looks a right faff with us taking the higher tariff on entry, and then reimbursing you if it didn't end up where you expected. So I import 20 widgets, sell them over the internet and pay up, have to track who buys them and claim back the ones sold to the UK market. I reckon once businesses get their heads round that there will be some howls.
I daresay, but it's hardly Punishment Budget territory.
Mr. Herdson, she may end up facing such a vote anyway, but I agree if she gives more ground it becomes nigh on certain.
True - though I think that were she to have faced a VoNC based on the Chequers agreement, we'd know by now. I think the most dangerous time was between Boris' resignation and the 1922 cttee meeting. That said, if something comes out in the WP that makes it look like MPs have been duped, it's game on again.
Oddly, I think the most dangerous time was actually a couple of weeks earlier. Imagine what would have happened if Boris had regretfully resigned over Heathrow, in a dignified way which didn't look opportunistic (although it would have been, of course). He'd then have been free to lay into the White Paper from the back benches, without looking a complete shyster.
Rather pleasingly, he seems to have knifed himself in the back. What a shame.
Probably the worst time he could have resigned. As you say, rather pleasing.
And before the "if it goes the same way crowd" start, it can't go "the same way" because unicorns and rainbows will not be on the ballot next time.
If the Chequers deal were agreed by the EU (and I share David Herdson's scepticism) it would not be possible for the Remain side to convincingly argue that there would be horrors in store,
Oh I don't know about that - the Facilitated Customs wotsit looks a right faff with us taking the higher tariff on entry, and then reimbursing you if it didn't end up where you expected. So I import 20 widgets, sell them over the internet and pay up, have to track who buys them and claim back the ones sold to the UK market. I reckon once businesses get their heads round that there will be some howls.
You already have to do exactly that to complete your VAT return.
Why would it be no deal? Why wouldn't May concede again and again like she already has?
She has no space left. She'll be no confidenced if she concedes any significant ground from here. My reading is that a lot of MPs (and cabinet ministers) are prepared to give this a shot as a last offer but won't go further.
I think you are both being uncharacteristically a bit unreasonable (every negotiation will have some movement and compromise, you can't expect the paper to be adopted entirely without change) and underestimating the capacity of both May and the EU for generating chaff and fudge on an epic scale. I predict there will be a deal, and none of us will be clear what it means, with much left for resolution by subsequent implementing bodies.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Brexiteers are more like 45% of the parliamentary party, old chum. We are certainly a clear majority of activists and Tory voters.
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
Which is why the logic leads to referendum. This deal (ie, whatever is come up with) or none at all? That will be the question.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
If Theresa May cannot get a deal, then I would reluctantly favour a No Deal Brexit.
You see, Big G? They still want to fuck over you and your family.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
That was "no negotiation with the EU", when the cabinet has spent the last 18 months negotiating only with itself.
It was an act of manifest incompetence on a massive scale that May was allowed to press the big red start button before she had the slightest fucking idea where she wanted to end up.
Impossible not to agree with that. The Chequers meeting or meetings should have been before the Article 50 notice was served. The White paper today (or more accurately its equivalent) should have been published and debated before the notice was served too. Had it been so we would be in a much better position today and any deal with the EU would have been a lot more palatable. I am pretty disgusted with the way that May has put internal party politics ahead of the national interest on this. It is shameful.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
If Theresa May cannot get a deal, then I would reluctantly favour a No Deal Brexit.
You see, Big G? They still want to fuck over you and your family.
Or they don't believe the Chicken Licken cowardice and doom-mongering.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
That was "no negotiation with the EU", when the cabinet has spent the last 18 months negotiating only with itself.
It was an act of manifest incompetence on a massive scale that May was allowed to press the big red start button before she had the slightest fucking idea where she wanted to end up.
And it has become apparent that the cabinet's Brexiteers had even less of a fucking clue.
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
Mmm. Maybe today might have been a good one to think about triggering Article 50. Then we'd have had 2 years to do that? Just a thought.
It was the EU that insisted on "no negotiation without notification". Our position today is informed by the negotiation we have had with the EU.
That was "no negotiation with the EU", when the cabinet has spent the last 18 months negotiating only with itself.
It was an act of manifest incompetence on a massive scale that May was allowed to press the big red start button before she had the slightest fucking idea where she wanted to end up.
Impossible not to agree with that. The Chequers meeting or meetings should have been before the Article 50 notice was served. The White paper today (or more accurately its equivalent) should have been published and debated before the notice was served too. Had it been so we would be in a much better position today and any deal with the EU would have been a lot more palatable. I am pretty disgusted with the way that May has put internal party politics ahead of the national interest on this. It is shameful.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
I dont think they thought the EU would behave in the way that they have
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Brexiteers are more like 45% of the parliamentary party, old chum. We are certainly a clear majority of activists and Tory voters.
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
The party membership is like Corbyn but instead of hard left are hard right
There are no more than 80 conservative mps who are in JRM's group which equates to 25%
But like so many you avoid the consequences and cannot tell me how you replace Airbus
Why would it be no deal? Why wouldn't May concede again and again like she already has?
She has no space left. She'll be no confidenced if she concedes any significant ground from here. My reading is that a lot of MPs (and cabinet ministers) are prepared to give this a shot as a last offer but won't go further.
I think you are both being uncharacteristically a bit unreasonable (every negotiation will have some movement and compromise, you can't expect the paper to be adopted entirely without change) and underestimating the capacity of both May and the EU for generating chaff and fudge on an epic scale. I predict there will be a deal, and none of us will be clear what it means, with much left for resolution by subsequent implementing bodies.
I think you are right on this, especially since the Commission and EU27 governments (including, notably, Ireland), seem to be making some conciliatory noises. No doubt the plan was informally discussed with them (at least I would certainly hope so).
It's a messy fudge, of course, and I'm sure there will be some fireworks to come, but there absolutely has to be some kind of deal otherwise both sides will be seriously damaged. There's more danger from the UK parliament crashing us out in chaos than from the EU.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
If Theresa May cannot get a deal, then I would reluctantly favour a No Deal Brexit.
You see, Big G? They still want to fuck over you and your family.
Or they don't believe the Chicken Licken cowardice and doom-mongering.
Oh I don’t know, Big G doesn’t seem to be a coward or a doom monger. Is that how he appears to you?
Why would it be no deal? Why wouldn't May concede again and again like she already has?
She has no space left. She'll be no confidenced if she concedes any significant ground from here. My reading is that a lot of MPs (and cabinet ministers) are prepared to give this a shot as a last offer but won't go further.
I think you are both being uncharacteristically a bit unreasonable (every negotiation will have some movement and compromise, you can't expect the paper to be adopted entirely without change) and underestimating the capacity of both May and the EU for generating chaff and fudge on an epic scale. I predict there will be a deal, and none of us will be clear what it means, with much left for resolution by subsequent implementing bodies.
I think you are right on this, especially since the Commission and EU27 governments (including, notably, Ireland), seem to be making some conciliatory noises. No doubt the plan was informally discussed with them (at least I would certainly hope so)...
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
It's not in the EU's interests to move quickly on this. It's in the EU's interests to run down the clock to turn the thumbscrews on May and let the panic build.
Of course it is. Hence my previous suggestion that unless we quickly get a deal/no-deal response, we announce that we are starting to spend the £39bn at £1bn/week until a deal gets done.
Just throwing money at something isn't necessarily a solution (haven't we heard that line from PB Tories again and again over the years?). For instance, how long will it take to recruit and adequately train the customs officers necessary for a no-deal Brexit next March?
Throwing money at the problem doesn’t always provide an optimum solution in terms of readiness or value for money, but it’s a hell of a lot better than meekly handing it to the EU as they run the clock down to no deal.
But they wouldn't get any money in the event of no deal. And ask any waiter/waitress what they they think of those arseholes who put out the maximum amount they're going to tip at the start and deduct bit by bit for any shortcomings in the service: they just assume they're not going to get any tip at all and act accordingly.
Good to see that Trump was met by an appropriately high level delegation - The US President and First Lady were greeted by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, the Queen's representative and the chief operating officer of Stansted Airport...
Standard protocol for a 'working visit' - Tim Stanley managed to wind up some on Twitter with the "insult" of making him land at Stansted - they always land there.....
Then they are even more stupid than they have allowed themselves to appear. But this isn't really about the EU, intransigent as they have been, this is about us. It is ridiculous that we only now have a cabinet position on what we want with any kind of detail attached to it. It has been a total absence of leadership and governance. It's a disgrace.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Brexiteers are more like 45% of the parliamentary party, old chum. We are certainly a clear majority of activists and Tory voters.
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
The party membership is like Corbyn but instead of hard left are hard right
There are no more than 80 conservative mps who are in JRM's group which equates to 25%
But like so many you avoid the consequences and cannot tell me how you replace Airbus
Err... I think you might be in the wrong party? Tory voters overwhelmingly keen on Brexit too, and they were warned by their leader and the PM at the time that stuff like airbus and worse would happen. It didn't put them off then and I don't see why it would put them off now...
Impossible not to agree with that. The Chequers meeting or meetings should have been before the Article 50 notice was served. The White paper today (or more accurately its equivalent) should have been published and debated before the notice was served too. Had it been so we would be in a much better position today and any deal with the EU would have been a lot more palatable. I am pretty disgusted with the way that May has put internal party politics ahead of the national interest on this. It is shameful.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
We would be in the same position, only a bit later. The EU would say "no, no, no"; "4 freedoms"; "legal framework" etc. etc. as the clock ran down, because that is in their interest in the negotiations.
Article 50 was written by the EU to favour the EU and that is exactly how it has worked. The only alternative would have been to go full-on non-cooperation with the EU until they agreed to negotiate, and I don't think TM had the political capital to do that (both domestically and internationally).
I still think a deal will be done at the last minute, but the stakes [and, more importantly, the possibility of fatal misjudgements] are getting very high now.
India a third of the way to the target from a quarter of their overs, with only a single wicket down. Current price of 1.1 is starting to look like value.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Welcome on board Big G. I am sorry to say that this was always where we would end up.
Can't remember whether you were a Leaver or Remainer but this is no surprise to many of us.
Voted remain but want to leave to respect democracy as I have said all along.
However, Boris FO to Airbus has had a huge impact on me and I am not prepared to support anything that threatens my son in law and his colleagues tens of thousands of jobs and the communities that wuld become wastelands if they moved production back to Europe
It was encouraging that Airbus welcomed TM white paper and that in itself reassures me that TM is consious of business real fears, especially a business like Airbus that needs complete real time access across all their factories
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
If Theresa May cannot get a deal, then I would reluctantly favour a No Deal Brexit.
You see, Big G? They still want to fuck over you and your family.
Or they don't believe the Chicken Licken cowardice and doom-mongering.
Oh I don’t know, Big G doesn’t seem to be a coward or a doom monger. Is that how he appears to you?
No offence intended but yes. I see no other way to interpret words like "It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with."
The 'well-placed Brussels official' is still only the servant of the European Council in this matter, if that. If the EU takes its leadership from Varadkar - and he's been instrumental in that role so far - then its directions to Barnier might yet change.
That said, I stand by my comments from my Saturday piece that the Chequers Deal, and the White Paper leading from it, are close to a straw man: it was produced in the full knowledge that Brussels was likely to knock it back. Perhaps they won't, in which case, great. But if they do then the negotiations have nowhere to go.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
It's not in the EU's interests to move quickly on this. It's in the EU's interests to run down the clock to turn the thumbscrews on May and let the panic build.
Of course it is. Hence my previous suggestion that unless we quickly get a deal/no-deal response, we announce that we are starting to spend the £39bn at £1bn/week until a deal gets done.
Just throwing money at something isn't necessarily a solution (haven't we heard that line from PB Tories again and again over the years?). For instance, how long will it take to recruit and adequately train the customs officers necessary for a no-deal Brexit next March?
Throwing money at the problem doesn’t always provide an optimum solution in terms of readiness or value for money, but it’s a hell of a lot better than meekly handing it to the EU as they run the clock down to no deal.
But they wouldn't get any money in the event of no deal. And ask any waiter/waitress what they they think of those arseholes who put out the maximum amount they're going to tip at the start and deduct bit by bit for any shortcomings in the service: they just assume they're not going to get any tip at all and act accordingly.
We will be in a much better position next March if we’ve spent say £20bn on preparing for no deal, than if we got to the same point and it was all still sitting in the bank - but the planes weren’t flying and Dover was at a standstill.
Impossible not to agree with that. The Chequers meeting or meetings should have been before the Article 50 notice was served. The White paper today (or more accurately its equivalent) should have been published and debated before the notice was served too. Had it been so we would be in a much better position today and any deal with the EU would have been a lot more palatable. I am pretty disgusted with the way that May has put internal party politics ahead of the national interest on this. It is shameful.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
We would be in the same position, only a bit later. The EU would say "no, no, no"; "4 freedoms"; "legal framework" etc. etc. as the clock ran down, because that is in their interest in the negotiations.
Article 50 was written by the EU to favour the EU and that is exactly how it has worked. The only alternative would have been to go full-on non-cooperation with the EU until they agreed to negotiate, and I don't think TM had the political capital to do that (both domestically and internationally).
I still think a deal will be done at the last minute, but the stakes [and, more importantly, the possibility of fatal misjudgements] are getting very high now.
I would be amazed, although not as much as I once would have been, if the White Paper had not been run by the EU before it was released.
Why would it be no deal? Why wouldn't May concede again and again like she already has?
She has no space left. She'll be no confidenced if she concedes any significant ground from here. My reading is that a lot of MPs (and cabinet ministers) are prepared to give this a shot as a last offer but won't go further.
I think you are both being uncharacteristically a bit unreasonable (every negotiation will have some movement and compromise, you can't expect the paper to be adopted entirely without change) and underestimating the capacity of both May and the EU for generating chaff and fudge on an epic scale. I predict there will be a deal, and none of us will be clear what it means, with much left for resolution by subsequent implementing bodies.
I think you are right on this, especially since the Commission and EU27 governments (including, notably, Ireland), seem to be making some conciliatory noises. No doubt the plan was informally discussed with them (at least I would certainly hope so)...
In fairness (not something I write often (at all - ed.)) to M. Barnier - if anyone is to change the EU's red lines it can't be him - it has to be the EU27 - he can only negotiate with what they - and the Commission Selmayr have given him.....
Impossible not to agree with that. The Chequers meeting or meetings should have been before the Article 50 notice was served. The White paper today (or more accurately its equivalent) should have been published and debated before the notice was served too. Had it been so we would be in a much better position today and any deal with the EU would have been a lot more palatable. I am pretty disgusted with the way that May has put internal party politics ahead of the national interest on this. It is shameful.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
We would be in the same position, only a bit later. The EU would say "no, no, no"; "4 freedoms"; "legal framework" etc. etc. as the clock ran down, because that is in their interest in the negotiations.
Article 50 was written by the EU to favour the EU and that is exactly how it has worked. The only alternative would have been to go full-on non-cooperation with the EU until they agreed to negotiate, and I don't think TM had the political capital to do that (both domestically and internationally).
I still think a deal will be done at the last minute, but the stakes [and, more importantly, the possibility of fatal misjudgements] are getting very high now.
We have made it easy for them by being unclear what we wanted. We have also failed to prepare for an alternative. May probably should be kept in office until October but in my view she should be impeached for this.
Impossible not to agree with that. The Chequers meeting or meetings should have been before the Article 50 notice was served. The White paper today (or more accurately its equivalent) should have been published and debated before the notice was served too. Had it been so we would be in a much better position today and any deal with the EU would have been a lot more palatable. I am pretty disgusted with the way that May has put internal party politics ahead of the national interest on this. It is shameful.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
We would be in the same position, only a bit later. The EU would say "no, no, no"; "4 freedoms"; "legal framework" etc. etc. as the clock ran down, because that is in their interest in the negotiations.
Article 50 was written by the EU to favour the EU and that is exactly how it has worked. The only alternative would have been to go full-on non-cooperation with the EU until they agreed to negotiate, and I don't think TM had the political capital to do that (both domestically and internationally).
I still think a deal will be done at the last minute, but the stakes [and, more importantly, the possibility of fatal misjudgements] are getting very high now.
We have made it easy for them by being unclear what we wanted. We have also failed to prepare for an alternative. May probably should be kept in office until October but in my view she should be impeached for this.
Personally I think we were fairly clear about what we wanted (at Florence etc.) They just weren't inclined to give us any of it, because they rightly judged that if they stood firm the ask would come down.
With the publication of the White Paper the ball is now in the EU’s court. If they think they can work on a deal from here then great, but if they can’t then we need to agree quickly that that’s the case, so we can spend the next nine months working through the exit strategy to keep planes flying and goods moving around.
It's not in the EU's interests to move quickly on this. It's in the EU's interests to run down the clock to turn the thumbscrews on May and let the panic build.
Of course it is. Hence my previous suggestion that unless we quickly get a deal/no-deal response, we announce that we are starting to spend the £39bn at £1bn/week until a deal gets done.
Just throwing money at something isn't necessarily a solution (haven't we heard that line from PB Tories again and again over the years?). For instance, how long will it take to recruit and adequately train the customs officers necessary for a no-deal Brexit next March?
Throwing money at the problem doesn’t always provide an optimum solution in terms of readiness or value for money, but it’s a hell of a lot better than meekly handing it to the EU as they run the clock down to no deal.
But they wouldn't get any money in the event of no deal. And ask any waiter/waitress what they they think of those arseholes who put out the maximum amount they're going to tip at the start and deduct bit by bit for any shortcomings in the service: they just assume they're not going to get any tip at all and act accordingly.
We will be in a much better position next March if we’ve spent say £20bn on preparing for no deal, than if we got to the same point and it was all still sitting in the bank - but the planes weren’t flying and Dover was at a standstill.
No, you're right that making preparations for no deal is a sensible thing. My points are that it's probably too late now to have very much of a mitigating effect, and to tell the EU that we'd be deducting such spend from the amount we've already agreed with them would pretty much guarantee no deal.
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
We will be in a much better position next March if we’ve spent say £20bn on preparing for no deal, than if we got to the same point and it was all still sitting in the bank - but the planes weren’t flying and Dover was at a standstill.
The problem is that the most intractable and dangerous problems of 'no deal' (i.e. literally no deal, not the hypothetical alternative of agreeing a deal with the EU which gets us amicably to WTO terms) are ones which can't handled unilaterally. Nothing the UK can do on its own will force an Open Skies agreement, make the airworthiness of Airbus wings internationally accepted, allow goods to travel across the channel without disruption, or sort out the legal status of trillions of dollars of cross-border derivative contracts which were written under EU-wide financial regulation.
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation make in good faith and conducted in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
Am I seeing it right that Guido Fawkes has a clip of Trump commenting upon Brexit, and Guido is pleased about it? Seems a bit hypocritical given it would be an intervention from a US president, which have not always been welcomed.
Impossible not to agree with that. The Chequers meeting or meetings should have been before the Article 50 notice was served. The White paper today (or more accurately its equivalent) should have been published and debated before the notice was served too. Had it been so we would be in a much better position today and any deal with the EU would have been a lot more palatable. I am pretty disgusted with the way that May has put internal party politics ahead of the national interest on this. It is shameful.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
We would be in the same position, only a bit later. The EU would say "no, no, no"; "4 freedoms"; "legal framework" etc. etc. as the clock ran down, because that is in their interest in the negotiations.
Article 50 was written by the EU to favour the EU and that is exactly how it has worked. The only alternative would have been to go full-on non-cooperation with the EU until they agreed to negotiate, and I don't think TM had the political capital to do that (both domestically and internationally).
I still think a deal will be done at the last minute, but the stakes [and, more importantly, the possibility of fatal misjudgements] are getting very high now.
We have made it easy for them by being unclear what we wanted. We have also failed to prepare for an alIternative. May probably should be kept in office until October but in my view she should be impeached for this.
Personally I think we were fairly clear about what we wanted (at Florence etc.) They just weren't inclined to give us any of it, because they rightly judged that if they stood firm the ask would come down.
Florence was broad strokes but you only have to look at @Toppings helpful summary of the White Paper downthread to see that this is an entirely different level of detail. The EU may well have said no but then we would have been under no illusions about what needed to be done. Instead HMG did nothing, nothing at all.
Personally I think we were fairly clear about what we wanted (at Florence etc.) They just weren't inclined to give us any of it, because they rightly judged that if they stood firm the ask would come down.
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
Plenty of people have acknowledged it has been harder to do a deal than expected/hoped, he is just lying about nobody having done so. It's such a blatant lie I don't know why he keeps doing it.
So at the last moment, and after a marathon 48 hour negotiation session, May betrays her party and gets her fudge cake BRINO deal by rebranding the four freedoms, ECJ, single market and customs union as something everso slightly different.
She brings it to Parliament. Labour and the Mogglodytes vote it down.
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
The EU is not negotiating in bad faith. It is using its strength to get what it wants, as was obvious it would before the referendum. It turns out we don’t hold all the cards.
So at the last moment, and after a marathon 48 hour negotiation session, May betrays her party and gets her fudge cake BRINO deal by rebranding the four freedoms, ECJ, single market and customs union as something everso slightly different.
She brings it to Parliament. Labour and the Mogglodytes vote it down.
That's where we're headed.
I'm not sure Labour's MPs will.
(EDIT: In any case, the fear that such a weak deal would be voted down ought to encourage the EU to give us a better deal.)
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
Plenty of people have acknowledged it has been harder to do a deal than expected/hoped, he is just lying about nobody having done so. It's such a blatant lie I don't know why he keeps doing it.
You must be reading a different pb from me. Most pb Leavers are very free with their aspersions about the EU in this process but oddly reticent to talk about how they had envisaged the disengagement to be concluded in an afternoon over tea and crumpets.
We will be in a much better position next March if we’ve spent say £20bn on preparing for no deal, than if we got to the same point and it was all still sitting in the bank - but the planes weren’t flying and Dover was at a standstill.
The problem is that the most intractable and dangerous problems of 'no deal' (i.e. literally no deal, not the hypothetical alternative of agreeing a deal with the EU which gets us amicably to WTO terms) are ones which can't handled unilaterally. Nothing the UK can do on its own will force an Open Skies agreement, make the airworthiness of Airbus wings internationally accepted, allow goods to travel across the channel without disruption, or sort out the legal status of trillions of dollars of cross-border derivative contracts which were written under EU-wide financial regulation.
Pretty much agreed. Things like aircraft type certifications could be sorted via ICAO and the UN, but open skies and the like would indeed need to be discussed with the EU.
The idea that the EU would ground every Airbus, every plane with RR engines and every British pilot on Brexit day - and refuse to discuss the subject between now and then - would almost certainly be illegal under international law.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Brexiteers are more like 45% of the parliamentary party, old chum. We are certainly a clear majority of activists and Tory voters.
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
The party membership is like Corbyn but instead of hard left are hard right
There are no more than 80 conservative mps who are in JRM's group which equates to 25%
But like so many you avoid the consequences and cannot tell me how you replace Airbus
Err... I think you might be in the wrong party? Tory voters overwhelmingly keen on Brexit too, and they were warned by their leader and the PM at the time that stuff like airbus and worse would happen. It didn't put them off then and I don't see why it would put them off now...
No I am not and will remain loyal but fight for sanity
So at the last moment, and after a marathon 48 hour negotiation session, May betrays her party and gets her fudge cake BRINO deal by rebranding the four freedoms, ECJ, single market and customs union as something everso slightly different.
She brings it to Parliament. Labour and the Mogglodytes vote it down.
That's where we're headed.
As I noted upthread, the Governing Body looks a lot like the EU.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Brexiteers are more like 45% of the parliamentary party, old chum. We are certainly a clear majority of activists and Tory voters.
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
The party membership is like Corbyn but instead of hard left are hard right
There are no more than 80 conservative mps who are in JRM's group which equates to 25%
But like so many you avoid the consequences and cannot tell me how you replace Airbus
Err... I think you might be in the wrong party? Tory voters overwhelmingly keen on Brexit too, and they were warned by their leader and the PM at the time that stuff like airbus and worse would happen. It didn't put them off then and I don't see why it would put them off now...
No I am not and will remain loyal but fight for sanity
Well best of luck! The country will certainly benefit from a better conservative party.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
If Theresa May cannot get a deal, then I would reluctantly favour a No Deal Brexit.
You see, Big G? They still want to fuck over you and your family.
Or they don't believe the Chicken Licken cowardice and doom-mongering.
Oh I don’t know, Big G doesn’t seem to be a coward or a doom monger. Is that how he appears to you?
No offence intended but yes. I see no other way to interpret words like "It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with."
Polite question - how would you replace the high skill high paid jobs at Airbus.
Not one Brexiteer had offered an explanation as there is not one
So at the last moment, and after a marathon 48 hour negotiation session, May betrays her party and gets her fudge cake BRINO deal by rebranding the four freedoms, ECJ, single market and customs union as something everso slightly different.
She brings it to Parliament. Labour and the Mogglodytes vote it down.
That's where we're headed.
If she knows it will get voted down, why bring it to parliament? Her judo move is to come back to London, walk out of Number 10 and announce that we have the best deal possible that respects the referendum result (see Michael Gove for details) and now we're going to give the people the final say between Brexit and Remain.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
If Theresa May cannot get a deal, then I would reluctantly favour a No Deal Brexit.
You see, Big G? They still want to fuck over you and your family.
Or they don't believe the Chicken Licken cowardice and doom-mongering.
Oh I don’t know, Big G doesn’t seem to be a coward or a doom monger. Is that how he appears to you?
No offence intended but yes. I see no other way to interpret words like "It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with."
Well there might also be 'realist'. If we are determined to go ad hominem, I'm sure I could come up with a couple of disobliging terms for you too...
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
The EU is not negotiating in bad faith. It is using its strength to get what it wants, as was obvious it would before the referendum. It turns out we don’t hold all the cards.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU have deliberately chosen an adversarial rather than a co-operative negotiation process.
So at the last moment, and after a marathon 48 hour negotiation session, May betrays her party and gets her fudge cake BRINO deal by rebranding the four freedoms, ECJ, single market and customs union as something everso slightly different.
She brings it to Parliament. Labour and the Mogglodytes vote it down.
That's where we're headed.
If she knows it will get voted down, why bring it to parliament? Her judo move is to come back to London, walk out of Number 10 and announce that we have the best deal possible that respects the referendum result (see Michael Gove for details) and now we're going to give the people the final say between Brexit and Remain.
She would have to legislate to have a referendum... And there is no majority in parliament for that (not to mention it would have go through the Lords, we'd have weeks of debate over the wording of the referendum and there would probably be legal challenges...)
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
The EU is not negotiating in bad faith. It is using its strength to get what it wants, as was obvious it would before the referendum. It turns out we don’t hold all the cards.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU have deliberately chosen an adversarial rather than a co-operative negotiation process.
It's amazing in hindsight how *sure* Brexiteers were that we could divide and conquer ourselves to an unlimited supply of cake.
It's just NOT CRICKET the way the EU27 is defending its own interests.
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
The EU is not negotiating in bad faith. It is using its strength to get what it wants, as was obvious it would before the referendum. It turns out we don’t hold all the cards.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU will actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU wants to see Northern Ireland resolved in a manner consistent with the Good Friday Agreement, as should Britain. Brexiteers have blustered but rely on fantasy technology to ignore the problem. That is bad faith.
The EU’s touted solution is unacceptable, seeking to put a wedge within a sovereign territory, I grant you. As it happens, the December agreement included favourable wording for Britain getting to a true soft Brexit but Theresa May doesn’t have the authority first to face down the ERG and then to confront M Barnier with the words the EU signed up to. A pity.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
They are saying that British built planes or planes containing British certified parts will no longer be legally airworthy, neither will any British registered planes.
They are further saying that British licensed professionals such as pilots, engineers, dispatchers, air traffic controllers etc. will have their licences invalidated.
These licences and certifications have worldwide effect.
There is also the matter of trade agreements such as Open Skies.
They are saying that British built planes or planes containing British certified parts will no longer be legally airworthy, neither will any British registered planes.
They are further saying that British licensed professionals such as pilots, engineers, dispatchers, air traffic controllers etc. will have their licences invalidated.
These are not threats. These are simple statements of legal fact.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
They are saying that British built planes or planes containing British certified parts will no longer be legally airworthy, neither will any British registered planes.
They are further saying that British licensed professionals such as pilots, engineers, dispatchers, air traffic controllers etc. will have their licences invalidated.
These licences and certifications have worldwide effect.
There is also the matter of trade agreements such as Open Skies.
These are not threats. These are simple statements of legal fact.
When they are refusing to talk about these issues then they become threats.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
Can someone explain to me how the Brexiteers will secure Airbus in the UK on a hard Brexit
Not one Brexiteer has answered the question other than say it is a scare story.
Come on Brexiteers now is your chance to lay out how you guarantee these jobs
It would be nice if some at least of pb’s Leavers could acknowledge how woefully they misjudged the ease of doing a deal with the EU.
I won’t hold my breath.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’d expected a negotiation conducted in good faith and in private, rather than one conducted in bad faith and in public, if that counts?
The EU is not negotiating in bad faith. It is using its strength to get what it wants, as was obvious it would before the referendum. It turns out we don’t hold all the cards.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU will actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU wants to see Northern Ireland resolved in a manner consistent with the Good Friday Agreement, as should Britain. Brexiteers have blustered but rely on fantasy technology to ignore the problem. That is bad faith.
The EU’s touted solution is unacceptable, seeking to put a wedge within a sovereign territory, I grant you. As it happens, the December agreement included favourable wording for Britain getting to a true soft Brexit but Theresa May doesn’t have the authority first to face down the ERG and then to confront M Barnier with the words the EU signed up to. A pity.
I am sure that the U.K. wishes to see a solution to the NI border consistent with the GFA too, as with aviation these things need to be worked though in a co-operative manner rather than used as pawns in the negotiation process. Barnier re-interpreted the text of the December agreement after the fact, in order to try and separate NI from GB.
India a third of the way to the target from a quarter of their overs, with only a single wicket down. Current price of 1.1 is starting to look like value.
I am sure that the U.K. wishes to see a solution to the NI border consistent with the GFA too, as with aviation these things need to be worked though in a co-operative manner rather than used as pawns in the negotiation process. Barnier re-interpreted the text of the December agreement after the fact, in order to try and separate NI from GB.
He did that because he knew it would piss the DUP off.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
They are saying that British built planes or planes containing British certified parts will no longer be legally airworthy, neither will any British registered planes.
Given there are British parts in both Boeing and Airbus, they plan to ground the entire global aviation industry (bar North Korea)?
So I guess Theresa Griffin's solution would be to remain... Oh and just as a nice little Brucie Bonus she'd keep her place on the gravy train too no doubt?
I'm confused - are you saying you disagree with the economic impact of the various Brexit options, or you just don't care about them?
So I guess Theresa Griffin's solution would be to remain... Oh and just as a nice little Brucie Bonus she'd keep her place on the gravy train too no doubt?
I'm confused - are you saying you disagree with the economic impact of the various Brexit options, or you just don't care about them?
Come on Gin - tell me your plan for Airbus in North Wales from March 2019 in a hard Brexit case
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
Can someone explain to me how the Brexiteers will secure Airbus in the UK on a hard Brexit
Not one Brexiteer has answered the question other than say it is a scare story.
Come on Brexiteers now is your chance to lay out how you guarantee these jobs
Not a Brexiteer, but I’m guessing Airbus won’t want to stop production for the 4-5 years it’s going to take to replace the wings coming from the U.K....so I guess something will be worked out.
We only ever hear the “British catastrophe” side of the no-deal story - like yesterday’s “generators for Northern Ireland” - if the Republic refused to supply the North with electricity, how long do you think the lorry queues at Holyhead would be?
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
Can someone explain to me how the Brexiteers will secure Airbus in the UK on a hard Brexit
Not one Brexiteer has answered the question other than say it is a scare story.
Come on Brexiteers now is your chance to lay out how you guarantee these jobs
Not a Brexiteer, but I’m guessing Airbus won’t want to stop production for the 4-5 years it’s going to take to replace the wings coming from the U.K....so I guess something will be worked out.
We only ever hear the “British catastrophe” side of the no-deal story - like yesterday’s “generators for Northern Ireland” - if the Republic refused to supply the North with electricity, how long do you think the lorry queues at Holyhead would be?
The real threat is for the new generation of wings
When they are refusing to talk about these issues then they become threats.
If they're refusing to talk about these issues then why is aviation in the Chequers agreement?
Not threats, I don't think. I view that as a frustrated official screaming at everyone that this needs *sorting out* regardless of the flavour of Brexit. It's one issue that all sides would be massively hit by, and one that no-one loses out from a quiet and straightforward resolution. It also goes nowhere near any of the EUs red lines (that I can see).
Of all the issues to resolve and untangle, this is one of the ones I'm least worried about.
Re Airbus - not only are 40,000 jobs at risk but over 120,000 in the supply chain.
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
Brexiteers are more like 45% of the parliamentary party, old chum. We are certainly a clear majority of activists and Tory voters.
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
The party membership is like Corbyn but instead of hard left are hard right
There are no more than 80 conservative mps who are in JRM's group which equates to 25%
But like so many you avoid the consequences and cannot tell me how you replace Airbus
If you think most Tory members are hard right, you don’t know what that term means.
Your Airbus hysteria is also getting increasingly ridiculous. British participation in the consortium predates our membership of the EEC. You seem to forget that if the EU makes it impossible for Airbus’ UK operations to play their part in production, they can’t make any planes. If they can’t make any planes, the greatest symbol of Europe’s industrial prowess goes broke. I don’t think the EU wants that.
In a hard Brexit scenario, I would expect that the resulting sharp devaluation of sterling would make Airbus’ U.K. operations competitive, even with customs and regulatory snafus. Your son in law and the rest of us might cut have to cut back on imported BMWs or foreign holidays for a period, but high unemployment is very unlikely.
So I guess Theresa Griffin's solution would be to remain... Oh and just as a nice little Brucie Bonus she'd keep her place on the gravy train too no doubt?
I'm confused - are you saying you disagree with the economic impact of the various Brexit options, or you just don't care about them?
Come on Gin - tell me your plan for Airbus in North Wales from March 2019 in a hard Brexit case
Scare story and it will be OK do not qualify
You're talking to someone who would rather switch from Tory to Corbyn than give any sort of compromise to the EUSSR. I don't think he gives a monkeys about anyone's livelihood or future if it gets in the way of a blue passport.
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
Can someone explain to me how the Brexiteers will secure Airbus in the UK on a hard Brexit
Not one Brexiteer has answered the question other than say it is a scare story.
Come on Brexiteers now is your chance to lay out how you guarantee these jobs
Airbus is a large and complex business involving high value products and high margins. A hard Brexit might result in tariffs if we chose to impose them on imports. I don’t think we would. It might result i. Tariffs on exports. That is up to the EU but it seems unlikely to me. If they did we would need to compensate them for the costs of the tariffs and any extra administration.
Going forward we would need to incentivise Airbus to keep investing in the U.K. in a hard Brexit world where we have no agreement with the EU about State aid none of that would be too difficult or too expensive.
Airbus would not be able to replace U.K. wings for years. It either finds ways to certify them or goes out of business.
This is not optional. A sensible deal is optimal. But I do not believe that those jobs would be lost.
I think that there is a a very narrow path that represents a reasonable compromise and the current government proposal is in the middle of it. There is a little room for adjustment but not much. Outside of the path on one side is a high risk of serious short-term economic damage and on the other a blatant disregard for the majority vote in the referendum. Every politician and political grouping will be forced to make a choice. Labour are under as much pressure as the Tories. If they shoot down the compromise to try and force an election without a clear difference that could back fire very badly if it is perceived as opportunism. If they insist on a softer Brexit then it really would be no Brexit at all and would be seen as undermining the negotiations and they would lose votes in the Midlands, if they insist on a harder Brexit (as Corbyn would like) they would lose a great body of current support. Will party lines even hold to any degree when the crunch votes take place?
I think that making threats about grounding planes isn’t negotiating in good faith. More seriously the threats about the Northern Ireland border are in incredibly bad faith, unless you believe that the EU would actually build a fence and customs posts across Ireland?
The EU isn't making any such threats stop being silly.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
Can someone explain to me how the Brexiteers will secure Airbus in the UK on a hard Brexit
Not one Brexiteer has answered the question other than say it is a scare story.
Come on Brexiteers now is your chance to lay out how you guarantee these jobs
Not a Brexiteer, but I’m guessing Airbus won’t want to stop production for the 4-5 years it’s going to take to replace the wings coming from the U.K....so I guess something will be worked out.
We only ever hear the “British catastrophe” side of the no-deal story - like yesterday’s “generators for Northern Ireland” - if the Republic refused to supply the North with electricity, how long do you think the lorry queues at Holyhead would be?
The real threat is for the new generation of wings
The expertise is in the U.K. - but apparently the EU is going to ground all planes with British parts in them (which is virtually all of them). The recent Airbus “threat” was to move wing production to.....France. Germany. Italy. Spain. The USA or China.
Comments
That Remainers are piling in to rubbish the suggestion that we start seriously preparing for the no-deal scenario gives the impression that they would prefer us to crash out unprepared.
The US President and First Lady were greeted by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox, the Queen's representative and the chief operating officer of Stansted Airport...
In North Wales it would be as bad, if not worse, then when the pits closed and we all know the anger and violence that caused.
I am hopeful TM gets a deal, irrespective of the political cost, as there is no other choice but to campaign to remain, and that is a big move in my attitude. I just will not accept a hard Brexit.
It would devastate our economy here in North Wales and we have nothing to replace it with.
The Brexiteers account for 25% of my party's MP's so it is upto the 75% to stand up to this UKIP element and form cross party alliances, excluding Corbyn of course, to act in the National interest
The idea that Theresa May can lead a cross-party alliance of BINOers in Parliament is fantasy. Labour will oppose, whatever she brings back.
Can't remember whether you were a Leaver or Remainer but this is no surprise to many of us.
It was an act of manifest incompetence on a massive scale that May was allowed to press the big red start button before she had the slightest fucking idea where she wanted to end up.
This deal (ie, whatever is come up with) or none at all? That will be the question.
That said, I accept it is in our interests to have a deal now, even on these terms. We are where we are and where we are is in a shithole with the clock running down and nothing done to create a viable alternative. Shameful.
There are no more than 80 conservative mps who are in JRM's group which equates to 25%
But like so many you avoid the consequences and cannot tell me how you replace Airbus
It's a messy fudge, of course, and I'm sure there will be some fireworks to come, but there absolutely has to be some kind of deal otherwise both sides will be seriously damaged. There's more danger from the UK parliament crashing us out in chaos than from the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/12/uks-latest-brexit-plans-likely-to-cross-eu-red-lines-barnier-hints
I won’t hold my breath.
Then they are even more stupid than they have allowed themselves to appear. But this isn't really about the EU, intransigent as they have been, this is about us. It is ridiculous that we only now have a cabinet position on what we want with any kind of detail attached to it. It has been a total absence of leadership and governance. It's a disgrace.
Tory voters overwhelmingly keen on Brexit too, and they were warned by their leader and the PM at the time that stuff like airbus and worse would happen. It didn't put them off then and I don't see why it would put them off now...
Article 50 was written by the EU to favour the EU and that is exactly how it has worked. The only alternative would have been to go full-on non-cooperation with the EU until they agreed to negotiate, and I don't think TM had the political capital to do that (both domestically and internationally).
I still think a deal will be done at the last minute, but the stakes [and, more importantly, the possibility of fatal misjudgements] are getting very high now.
However, Boris FO to Airbus has had a huge impact on me and I am not prepared to support anything that threatens my son in law and his colleagues tens of thousands of jobs and the communities that wuld become wastelands if they moved production back to Europe
It was encouraging that Airbus welcomed TM white paper and that in itself reassures me that TM is consious of business real fears, especially a business like Airbus that needs complete real time access across all their factories
This is no time for being conciliatory, this is the moment you turn up the heat.
I'm not pleased.
"It can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop. Ever."
EU increasingly seem like.
"It can't be reasoned with, it can't be bargained with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop. Ever."
She brings it to Parliament. Labour and the Mogglodytes vote it down.
That's where we're headed.
(EDIT: In any case, the fear that such a weak deal would be voted down ought to encourage the EU to give us a better deal.)
The idea that the EU would ground every Airbus, every plane with RR engines and every British pilot on Brexit day - and refuse to discuss the subject between now and then - would almost certainly be illegal under international law.
The country will certainly benefit from a better conservative party.
Not one Brexiteer had offered an explanation as there is not one
If we are determined to go ad hominem, I'm sure I could come up with a couple of disobliging terms for you too...
The EU have deliberately chosen an adversarial rather than a co-operative negotiation process.
For a start it doesn't have to. Business has a very active imagination when it comes to worst case scenarios, as we are finding out.
It's just NOT CRICKET the way the EU27 is defending its own interests.
The EU’s touted solution is unacceptable, seeking to put a wedge within a sovereign territory, I grant you. As it happens, the December agreement included favourable wording for Britain getting to a true soft Brexit but Theresa May doesn’t have the authority first to face down the ERG and then to confront M Barnier with the words the EU signed up to. A pity.
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/brexit-notice-to-stakeholders-aviation-safety.pdf
With effect from 29/3/19:
They are saying that British built planes or planes containing British certified parts will no longer be legally airworthy, neither will any British registered planes.
They are further saying that British licensed professionals such as pilots, engineers, dispatchers, air traffic controllers etc. will have their licences invalidated.
These licences and certifications have worldwide effect.
There is also the matter of trade agreements such as Open Skies.
Not one Brexiteer has answered the question other than say it is a scare story.
Come on Brexiteers now is your chance to lay out how you guarantee these jobs
Scare story and it will be OK do not qualify
We only ever hear the “British catastrophe” side of the no-deal story - like yesterday’s “generators for Northern Ireland” - if the Republic refused to supply the North with electricity, how long do you think the lorry queues at Holyhead would be?
Of all the issues to resolve and untangle, this is one of the ones I'm least worried about.
Your Airbus hysteria is also getting increasingly ridiculous. British participation in the consortium predates our membership of the EEC. You seem to forget that if the EU makes it impossible for Airbus’ UK operations to play their part in production, they can’t make any planes. If they can’t make any planes, the greatest symbol of Europe’s industrial prowess goes broke. I don’t think the EU wants that.
In a hard Brexit scenario, I would expect that the resulting sharp devaluation of sterling would make Airbus’ U.K. operations competitive, even with customs and regulatory snafus. Your son in law and the rest of us might cut have to cut back on imported BMWs or foreign holidays for a period, but high unemployment is very unlikely.
Going forward we would need to incentivise Airbus to keep investing in the U.K. in a hard Brexit world where we have no agreement with the EU about State aid none of that would be too difficult or too expensive.
Airbus would not be able to replace U.K. wings for years. It either finds ways to certify them or goes out of business.
This is not optional. A sensible deal is optimal. But I do not believe that those jobs would be lost.