politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Trump bothers to read UK polls he won’t be pleased about how negatively he’s viewed in the UK
New YouGov polling on how Brits view Trump and Putin with party splits pic.twitter.com/Z9kQGlHrD2
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FIRST at being hated.
Whether Trump is serious or not about withdrawing from NATO is really not the point. The point is what used to be the adult in the room against whom the others could kick off and protest whilst remaining under their protection is now having tantrums itself.
The US faces a challenge to its global supremacy from China. Russia is not a threat. In fact, post Putin, it is a potential ally as they have at least as much to worry about so far as China is concerned as the US, arguably more.
Europeans have an enormously inflated sense of their own importance based on historical power, the impact that they had in the 19th and 20th centuries and the perception of soft power that they still have. In fact they are increasingly irrelevant and it is not obvious why the US should spend any of its resources protecting them from not very serious threats.
Which is fine. Being in the centre of history is rarely comfortable. Being a backwater will mean less Europeans dead, less money spent on arms and fewer reasons for the discontent of the world to have a go at us. Personally, I think we should take Trump at his word and begin the process of dismantling NATO. But then, I don't live in the Baltic States or Poland.
I think that is different from hate. I have no reason to hate him or respect him.
I do have view on his suitability to do the job, and this would determine my view of him on a favourability scale.
If the question is do I hate him, then the answer is no. I reserve hate for leaders who wreak havoc, death and destruction on millions. Mao or Hitler are the types that qualify for hatred for the actions they took inflicting such misery and large scale destruction of human life.
Probably makes him more popular than David Cameron among that group?
Should Trump serve more than one term, then a purely European defence arrangement might be necessary, whatever we want.
More generally polls from the likes of PISA show voters in almost every nation surveyed view Trump unfavourably so it is not just Britain, the only exceptions are Russia and Israel. Ironically it was of course the latter two nations which tended to be the only nations to view Obama unfavourably
That doesn't fit the narrative.
It is the sort of move that is 'easy' for the US to make in order to save a few quid (and after all, they're increasing their defence spending, not cutting), but may cost a heck of a lot more in a decade's time to correct.
I wonder if he will he 'retire' at the end of this term, change the constitution to allow him to continue or take another sabbatical as PM with a friend as President?
And no it isn't Blair. Step forward, Mark Reckless xD https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Mark_Reckless
However he is also president of our biggest trading partner who is known to love the UK and is keen to negotiate a trade deal, but who is notoriously thin skinned and capricious.
I wonder how many people who are willing to jeopardise a good trade deal in order to score cheap political points, are the same people who are imploring us to listen to Airbus about the perils of Brexit?
United Russia implodes -> civil war?
George Osborne -64
Kim Jong Un -70
Mark Reckless -70
2,299th Public Figure of 2311 tracked
https://twitter.com/shiner1888/status/1017125639621668864
Excellent juxtaposition of voice over & images.
94th percentile
12383
139th Public Figure of 2421 tracked. I'm trying to find who is first and last in this list. The Queen is the most popular bod found so far and Murdoch the least liked.
If anything I would say that Russia is more aggressive and expansionist now than during many periods of the Cold War. We didn't make a stand on Crimea, Eastern Ukraine or Syria, which makes it all the more likely that we will have to do so in the Baltic States.
A contender for the most unlikable Question Time panel of all-time, surely.
I agree that with the withdrawal of the American shield this is a real possibility and that a UK PM may well to have to answer that question. I am not sure I know the answer.
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Piers_Morgan
Oh yes.
(Excellent for him, not for us)
https://order-order.com/2018/07/12/trump-mays-brexit-deal-not-people-voted/
Piers Morgan -42; Volume 38076
Barry Gardiner +10; Volume 1922
Charles Moore -10; Volume 2536
Claire Perry -44; Volume 2614
GIna Miller Not tracked.
EDIT: I see OSM beat me to the punch.
If you think that the dismantling of NATO would stop them from performing similar, or worse, acts, then you are being incredibly naive.
Putin is a bully. If there is one thing he understands it is power, and a Europe without NATO is a heck of a lot less powerful.
You sometimes do have to wonder what the government is playing at.
Nah.
Am hopeful that May sounded out the EU on this one. Perhaps naively so.
Leave aside that Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia wanted to be in the EU, Nato and Eurozone - for good reason - and were accepted.
If we accept that they're really in Moscow's sphere of influence, then where else do we accept it - and to what consequences? Ukraine? The Caucasus states? Poland? Bulgaria? East Germany? As Stalin observed at Potsdam on being congratulated on the Red Army having reached Berlin, "Tsar Alexander got to Paris".
They've replaced the dragons on the Kew Gardens Pagoda, and they 3D printed them to reduce their weight. The pagoda was also used for testing the smoke dropped to cover the D-Day landings. So there you go.
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2018/07/12/the-dragons-have-returned-to-kews-great-pagoda/
3 wickets in his first eleven balls.
https://twitter.com/ProRoyalFamily/status/998963164770422784
As predicted, Luka Modric is now into 9/4 for Golden Ball (best player). If you are not already on, then even that price might represent some value in a two-horse race with Mbappe at 10/11. I believe voting is partway through the final but you should check that if you want to play late, in case one of them scores a hat-trick in the first ten minutes. The case for each player is that Mbappe is the best young player in the world, especially against Argentina. Luka Modric has single-handedly taken what is basically a Sunday league side from a country with a smaller population than Scotland into the World Cup final. As ever dyor because tbh I've not looked at anyone else.
Golden boot (and some bookies bet on top scorer instead where dead-heat rules will be different) looks to be Harry Kane's which is why the best price out there is 1/16 with some bookies as short as 1/25. Lukaku is two goals behind. It might be worth a second look depending how the third-place playoff starts as this has been a high-scoring match in the past.
Anyone would think the government views their own MP's as the enemy?
After all he takes his whip from Rome.
https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1017389934595006466
- there was that quote the other night that they had "another, and another" lining up to go if Chequers wasn't withdrawn. I think they probably meant more than a couple of unheard of vice-chairs, unless they were doing the old DD "all mouth and trousers" routine.
- I can see why they took a 48 hour break while the football was dominating, and to use that to see if they could force any rollback in the full white paper.
- ... but I suspect the answer is that they haven't.
- I think Fox and Gove have been remarkably absent from the airwaves this week since the resignations. Notwithstanding Gove's loyalty on Sunday TV, the absence of a repeat this week probably suggests they're keeping their powder dry to see how the white paper flies.
The only thing which may slow it all down is the fear reported by Guido that a move against May comes too soon to topple her, so they decide to keep the boat afloat till the autumn.
It's Brexit in microcosm.