I never really saw the problem with 125% mortgages. Basically the borrower was getting to borrow at secured rates even if the mortgage was partly unsecured. Inflation was always likely to fix the unsecured bit in a reasonable period. If you paid a few tenths extra for the risk everyone is a winner.
You were effectively betting on property prices never falling is how I saw it.
I thought that was a courageous view.
Can you imagine the negative equity on that.
Plus if there was a default the bank would surely lose out?
Sure there were risks but was that risk any greater than an interest free loan for a new car? It’s just a different way of thinking about debt and consumer credit. Provided your borrower stayed in employment it was safe enough.
I never really saw the problem with 125% mortgages. Basically the borrower was getting to borrow at secured rates even if the mortgage was partly unsecured. Inflation was always likely to fix the unsecured bit in a reasonable period. If you paid a few tenths extra for the risk everyone is a winner.
It was highly risky in the event of a fall in house prices or if the income of the mortgagee fell.
Combined with all the other non-standard stuff of that time such as self-cert 'liar loan' mortgages, interest only mortgages, high earnings multiple mortgages and BTL mortgages and the banking system was too exposed to adverse events.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I never really saw the problem with 125% mortgages. Basically the borrower was getting to borrow at secured rates even if the mortgage was partly unsecured. Inflation was always likely to fix the unsecured bit in a reasonable period. If you paid a few tenths extra for the risk everyone is a winner.
It was highly risky in the event of a fall in house prices or if the income of the mortgagee fell.
Combined with all the other non-standard stuff of that time such as self-cert 'liar loan' mortgages, interest only mortgages, high earnings multiple mortgages and BTL mortgages and the banking system was too exposed to adverse events.
Self certified incomes always looked more of a risk to me. And so it has proved! If the borrower is in secure employment on a sane multiple the risk is less than many of the other practices you describe. In that scenario the borrower can ride out periods of negative equity.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
But Brexit is not a core issue for Labour - and it is certainly not what their campaign would be based on.2017 suggests that the electorate would be pretty receptive to more bread & butter issues!
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
But Brexit is not a core issue for Labour - and it is certainly not what their campaign would be based on.2017 suggests that the electorate would be pretty receptive to more bread & butter issues!
It is for many Labour Remainers who voted for Corbyn to stop Brexit and who may switch to the LDs if they think they are better placed to do so, see Lewisham East. Corbyn also only held many Labour Leavers by virtually agreeing with everything May said on Brexit
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
From Corbyn’s point of view he could be setting up the perfect election. It’s a chance to get out campaign overthrow a Tory government with his big party membership and win against the odds on a socialist platform. It is his life dream - just the way it is supposed to happen. It’s little wonder he is angling for it.
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
From Corbyn’s point of view he could be setting up the perfect election. It’s a chance to get out campaign overthrow a Tory government with his big party membership and win against the odds on a socialist platform. It is his life dream - just the way it is supposed to happen. It’s little wonder he is angling for it.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
But Brexit is not a core issue for Labour - and it is certainly not what their campaign would be based on.2017 suggests that the electorate would be pretty receptive to more bread & butter issues!
It is for many Labour Remainers who voted for Corbyn to stop Brexit and who may switch to the LDs if they think they are better placed to do so, see Lewisham East. Corbyn also only held many Labour Leavers by virtually agreeing with everything May said on Brexit
I did not take that message from Lewisham East at all. A mere 33% bothered to turn out.For a by election , it was far from being a dramatic LibDem performance. No real sign there of anger there from the electorate - more a sense of indifference and resignation.
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
So far as local Govt goes, two tier authorities need to go and everywhere switch to unitary
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn but with some pro Brexit support added in too.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
But Brexit is not a core issue for Labour - and it is certainly not what their campaign would be based on.2017 suggests that the electorate would be pretty receptive to more bread & butter issues!
It is for many Labour Remainers who voted for Corbyn to stop Brexit and who may switch to the LDs if they think they are better placed to do so, see Lewisham East. Corbyn also only held many Labour Leavers by virtually agreeing with everything May said on Brexit
I did not take that message from Lewisham East at all. A mere 33% bothered to turn out.For a by election , it was far from being a dramatic LibDem performance. No real sign there of anger there from the electorate - more a sense of indifference and resignation.
Yet still an 18% swing from Labour to LD in a very pro Remain area
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
A genuine question -- how would you fund local government spending including social care funding
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
But Brexit is not a core issue for Labour - and it is certainly not what their campaign would be based on.2017 suggests that the electorate would be pretty receptive to more bread & butter issues!
It is for many Labour Remainers who voted for Corbyn to stop Brexit and who may switch to the LDs if they think they are better placed to do so, see Lewisham East. Corbyn also only held many Labour Leavers by virtually agreeing with everything May said on Brexit
Labour did a lot better than expected, because many voters did not want to give the Tories a massive majority.Sweet fa to do with Brexit.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all g I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
But Brexit is not a core issue for Labour - and it is certainly not what their campaign would be based on.2017 suggests that the electorate would be pretty receptive to more bread & butter issues!
It is for many Labour Remainers who voted for Corbyn to stop Brexit and who may switch to the LDs if they think they are better placed to do so, see Lewisham East. Corbyn also only held many Labour Leavers by virtually agreeing with everything May said on Brexit
Labour did a lot better than expected, because many voters did not want to give the Tories a massive majority.Sweet fa to do with Brexit.
Did they? The Labour majority went 21,000 in 2017 to just 5,000 in the by election
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
A genuine question -- how would you fund local government spending including social care funding
Dunno.
But my basic starting point would be if Two Brian's or Letwin are anywhere close to the policy it will be a total disaster,,,,
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
So far as local Govt goes, two tier authorities need to go and everywhere switch to unitary
Where would you fancy going into ?
Greater Mansfield, Greater Newark or Greater Doncaster ?
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
'
'
It is for many Labour Remainers who voted for Corbyn to stop Brexit and who may switch to the LDs if they think they are better placed to do so, see Lewisham East. Corbyn also only held many Labour Leavers by virtually agreeing with everything May said on Brexit
I did not take that message from Lewisham East at all. A mere 33% bothered to turn out.For a by election , it was far from being a dramatic LibDem performance. No real sign there of anger there from the electorate - more a sense of indifference and resignation.
Yet still an 18% swing from Labour to LD in a very pro Remain area
Pretty meaningless on such a low turnout in what was perceived to be a safe Labour seat.Given the effort devoted to their campaign it was a far from impressive LibDem result - nothing like Grenwich 1987 or Bermondsey 1983. Moreover, had it been a General Election the Labour vote share would have been much higher and the LD performance far weaker.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?). that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help oat there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advantage is wafer thin and far too close for comfort. Both blocks look very solid but a fiasco over Brexit could seriously dent the Tory vote, putting Coryn into pole position. The Tories are skating on very thin ice and need to get a grip. TM I think is a busted flush and needs to go pdq,
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
'
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
So far as local Govt goes, two tier authorities need to go and everywhere switch to unitary
Where would you fancy going into ?
Greater Mansfield, Greater Newark or Greater Doncaster ?
North Nottinghamshire, I'd take the Rotherham or Doncaster boundaries being moved though that's very unlikely.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM aof exactly the same result.
ard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think sstill get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencr switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advantage is wafer thin and far too close for comfort. Both blocks look very solid but a fiasco over Brexit could seriously dent the Tory vote, putting Coryn into pole position. The Tories are skating on very thin ice and need to get a grip. TM I think is a busted flush and needs to go pdq,
What 'fiasco' over Brexit? The Tory vote is now overwhelmingly pro Brexit and full of Leave voters who will support Brexit regardless with a few Remainers added in who despise Corbyn, neither are going to switch to Corbyn Labour. Indeed the Tories face a bigger danger of BINO seeing switchers back to UKIP than any new movement to a Corbyn led Labour Party. May is still polling a higher Tory voteshare than any other Tory leader since at least Major in 1992 or Thatcher in 1983 when the anti Kinnock vote and anti Foot votes were also very significant
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
A genuine question -- how would you fund local government spending including social care funding
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
'
T
But Brexit is not a core issue for Labour - and it is certainly not what their campaign would be based on.2017 suggests that the electorate would be pretty receptive to more bread & butter issues!
It is for many Labour Remainers who voted for Corbyn to stop Brexit and who may switch to the LDs if they think they are better placed to do so, see Lewisham East. Corbyn also only held many Labour Leavers by virtually agreeing with everything May said on Brexit
Labour did a lot better than expected, because many voters did not want to give the Tories a massive majority.Sweet fa to do with Brexit.
I agree re-Brexit - but by Polling Day expectations of the Tory majority had been scaled back a lot. Several polls were pointing to the possibility of a Hung Parliament - particularly in the context of the Tory surge in Scotland. The latter implied some underperformance in England & Wales compared with what might have been indicated by the overall national voting intention figures.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
So far as local Govt goes, two tier authorities need to go and everywhere switch to unitary
Where would you fancy going into ?
Greater Mansfield, Greater Newark or Greater Doncaster ?
North Nottinghamshire, I'd take the Rotherham or Doncaster boundaries being moved though that's very unlikely.
I can imagine the rivalry between Mansfield and Newark in a North Nottinghamshire
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They arey with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
I don't disagree, we are back to two tribe politics, certainly unless and until a more centrist Labour leader emerges and with the LDs still failing to make any significant national breakthrough
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
'
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
But throughout that period hundreds of seats only had two candidates - Tory and Labour. As a result, the vote shares polled were artificially high in that both parties received many second preference votes.
That’s the goal keeper Dundee United fans remember.
He's made some high profile errors for Japan in the past.
I feel very sorry for Japan. Obviously a lot happened leading up to the second goal, but that foul given by the linesman was a joke. Kompany just fell over.
Every half decent team in England is well represented in this Belgian squad. They were my bet before the tournament started but they have to do better than this.
I dont want to see a bunch of player s that I see in the Premiership, I want exotica for my Semifinal on the 10th. Brazil vs France or Uruguay please.
Japan was robbed, that hard pressing style wiped them out by the end of the match. It nearly worked.They should have brought on some fresh legs. It was dying for Okazaki to come on in his whirlwind style and break things up.
This is a European cup. Only 3 non European teams left now, hopefully just 2 after tommorow.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
.
ard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think sstill get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencr switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advantage is wafer thin and far too close for comfort. Both blocks look very solid but a fiasco over Brexit could seriously dent the Tory vote, putting Coryn into pole position. The Tories are skating on very thin ice and need to get a grip. TM I think is a busted flush and needs to go pdq,
What 'fiasco' over Brexit? The Tory vote is now overwhelmingly pro Brexit and full of Leave voters who will support Brexit regardless with a few Remainers added in who despise Corbyn, neither are going to switch to Corbyn Labour. significant
I am not pro - Brexit yet voted Tory in 2017 and I know many other Tory voters who do not support Brexit. People like you propagate this myth about the Tory voters being overwhelmingly pro Brexit but it is an illusion. Maybe you mix with people with pro-Brexit viewpoints, I do not know and so think Brexit is some golden panacea.
At some point May will stop being able to please both sides and then the Tories are going to split. If May was a good leader she should have engineered things so Labour split and some joined her in government whilst excluding these stupid, economically illiterate Brexit supporters who simply either do not understand the economic fallout or do not care. Historically the Tories have been the party of economic management. Brexit is destroying this and at some point the forces will rip the Tories asunder.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
It's nailed on provided that they behave like adults. The kind of self indulgent tosh we are seeing from both sides of the argument at the moment would embarrass the average 5 year old. They really need to get a grip and if May is simply incapable of that they need to get rid.
HYuFD not a by election.The GE 2017.Many were as scared of the Tories getting a 150 Maj .As they would be unbearable.So they voted Labour to stop it.
I think that is a sensible and accurate analysis that people were motivated to stop a Tory landslide. I think this was the main driver of Labour voters.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
When Linekar started saying "the last time a team came from 2-0 down to win a knock-out match..." I just knew what game it was going to be. There's not an election in Japan anytime soon, is there?
What was the answer?
Edit - Germany v England 1970?
West Germany ! Just four days before Polling Day. Far fewer postal votes in those days so it might well have made a difference.
That piece of alternate history has already been written up:
That’s the goal keeper Dundee United fans remember.
He's made some high profile errors for Japan in the past.
I feel very sorry for Japan. Obviously a lot happened leading up to the second goal, but that foul given by the linesman was a joke. Kompany just fell over.
Every half decent team in England is well represented in this Belgian squad. They were my bet before the tournament started but they have to do better than this.
I dont want to see a bunch of player s that I see in the Premiership, I want exotica for my Semifinal on the 10th. Brazil vs France or Uruguay please.
Japan was robbed, that hard pressing style wiped them out by the end of the match. It nearly worked.They should have brought on some fresh legs. It was dying for Okazaki to come on in his whirlwind style and break things up.
This is a European cup. Only 3 non European teams left now, hopefully just 2 after tommorow.
I seem to find myself in agreement with Gove more and more.
Certainly not on education, mind.
Does anyone north of Birmingham actually support HS2 ?
I don't , can get to London from York under ,2 hours on the train now.
However getting to Manchester from York needs improvement.
It is an hour to London from Leicester by rail, but also an hour to my nearest HS2 station from Leicester, despite it passing through the county. I cannot see any advantage here.
I would much rather have increased rail capacity via new lines with stations so that every dozen miles or so passengers could get on and off. Regular inter city is fast enough, cheaper and greener.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencheditching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
Why would the Tories be more vulnerable to a LD revival given the LDs are now the anti Brexit party and most Labour voters voted Remain while most Tory voters voted Leave. I can assure you the anti-Corbyn vote is also not going to mellow
That’s the goal keeper Dundee United fans remember.
He's made some high profile errors for Japan in the past.
I feel very sorry for Japan. Obviously a lot happened leading up to the second goal, but that foul given by the linesman was a joke. Kompany just fell over.
Every half decent team in England is well represented in this Belgian squad. They were my bet before the tournament started but they have to do better than this.
I dont want to see a bunch of player s that I see in the Premiership, I want exotica for my Semifinal on the 10th. Brazil vs France or Uruguay please.
Japan was robbed, that hard pressing style wiped them out by the end of the match. It nearly worked.They should have brought on some fresh legs. It was dying for Okazaki to come on in his whirlwind style and break things up.
This is a European cup. Only 3 non European teams left now, hopefully just 2 after tommorow.
You do want England to win tomorrow , don't you ?
Yes! I will be in Moscow fan park for the final, but rather fancy Brazil vs France for my live ticket.
I seem to find myself in agreement with Gove more and more.
Certainly not on education, mind.
Does anyone north of Birmingham actually support HS2 ?
That link doesn't mention the other bit of the anecdote. Gove only grunted in acknowledgement that he had heard their point when MPs said they thought it should be scrapped. He didn't agree to anything, as one MP was keen to point out.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
.
ard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think sstill get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencr switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advango pdq,
What 'fiasco' over Brexit? The Corbyn Labour. significant
I am not pro - Brexit yet voted Tory in 2017 and I know many other Tory voters who do not support Brexit. People like you propagate this myth about the Tory voters being overwhelmingly pro Brexit but it is an illusion. Maybe you mix with people with pro-Brexit viewpoints, I do not know and so think Brexit is some golden panacea.
At some point May will stop being able to please both sides and then the Tories are going to split. If May was a good leader she should have engineered things so Labour split and some joined her in government whilst excluding these stupid, economically illiterate Brexit supporters who simply either do not understand the economic fallout or do not care. Historically the Tories have been the party of economic management. Brexit is destroying this and at some point the forces will rip the Tories asunder.
66% of Leave voters are voting Tory but just 21% of Remain voters are now Tory voters
If you are a Remain voter voting Tory you are more likely to be voting against Corbyn than for the Tories.
Tories can win even in a recession when the alternative is a left wing Labour leader, see 1992. Tories can lose even when the economy is booming when the alternative is a charismatic centrist Labour leader, see 1997
As a Scot who has no qualms about supporting England I am seriously nervous about tomorrow. If England go out tomorrow all the positive vibes about progress will fall away and the abysmal record in knock out games will continue and become a burden for a new generation. If they win tomorrow it almost doesn't matter what happens after that. It will be mission accomplished for this young team.
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
1997 wasn't about hordes of Tories switching to Labour. It was mostly about hordes of Tories not voting. I'd think that was still a serious risk. People do sometimes think "I don't like the alternative but I'm not voting FOR this shower, so I'll sit this one out".
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
The strongest argument propping up the Conservative vote is the same one that won it for them in 2015. The English find the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP immensely unpalatable.
Yes, I know that statement is laden with irony, given the current role of the DUP, but one thing the Conservatives have done very well with both their DUP and former Lib Dem partners is give the impression it is still a Conservative government.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencheditching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
Why would the Tories be more vulnerable to a LD revival given the LDs are now the anti Brexit party and most Labour voters voted Remain while most Tory voters voted Leave. I can assure you the anti-Corbyn vote is also not going to mellow
You keep on asserting that all people who vote Tory are supporters of Brexit and this is simply not true. Indeed, the Tories might well end up not pleasing nutcase Brexit supporters like you and displeasing the more realistic and economically pragmatic voters like me. Brexit is an economic disaster looming on the horizon and those who propagate Brexit are too thick to see what is coming.
As a Scot who has no qualms about supporting England I am seriously nervous about tomorrow. If England go out tomorrow all the positive vibes about progress will fall away and the abysmal record in knock out games will continue and become a burden for a new generation. If they win tomorrow it almost doesn't matter what happens after that. It will be mission accomplished for this young team.
I wrote the match off for England as soon as I saw it was on ITV. I don't know why England can't play on ITV, but the evidence seems irrefutable. Maybe it's some sort of karmic punishment from the god of football for Barry Davies.
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
The strongest argument propping up the Conservative vote is the same one that won it for them in 2015. The English find the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP immensely unpalatable.
Yes, I know that statement is laden with irony, given the current role of the DUP, but one thing the Conservatives have done very well with both their DUP and former Lib Dem partners is give the impression it is still a Conservative government.
Oh, and hello, Solarflare!
It might be true that a majority of the English find the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP immensely unpalatable, but a sizeable minority would welcome it.
For many of us, anything would be better that the current shambles.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they ost people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencheditching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
Why would the Tories be more vulnerable to a LD revival given the LDs are now the anti Brexit party and most Labour voters voted Remain while most Tory voters voted Leave. I can assure you the anti-Corbyn vote is also not going to mellow
You keep on asserting that all people who vote Tory are supporters of Brexit and this is simply not true. Indeed, the Tories might well end up not pleasing nutcase Brexit supporters like you and displeasing the more realistic and economically pragmatic voters like me. Brexit is an economic disaster looming on the horizon and those who propagate Brexit are too thick to see what is coming.
Not all, but a very large majority of Tory voters, support Brexit.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencheditching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
Why would the Tories be more vulnerable to a LD revival given the LDs are now the anti Brexit party and most Labour voters voted Remain while most Tory voters voted Leave. I can assure you the anti-Corbyn vote is also not going to mellow
Because as the LD vote rises, it is Tory seats that start to fall first?
HYuFD not a by election.The GE 2017.Many were as scared of the Tories getting a 150 Maj .As they would be unbearable.So they voted Labour to stop it.
I think that is a sensible and accurate analysis that people were motivated to stop a Tory landslide. I think this was the main driver of Labour voters.
That doesn't match the fact that the polls and Locals indicate that voters are stuck where they were a year ago. If they didn't want a Tory majority then, they still do not.
any sudden new GE would only happen in the circumstances of governmental collapse and fratricide. In those circumstances it is hard to see the Tories prospering, and indeed they could be sorely afflicted. Voters don't like incompetence and division.
As a Scot who has no qualms about supporting England I am seriously nervous about tomorrow. If England go out tomorrow all the positive vibes about progress will fall away and the abysmal record in knock out games will continue and become a burden for a new generation. If they win tomorrow it almost doesn't matter what happens after that. It will be mission accomplished for this young team.
I think most in England are pretty sanguine tbh. We've probably got a 60/40 chance of going though but we've seen a few upsets already and Colombia are no slouches.
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
1997 wasn't about hordes of Tories switching to Labour. It was mostly about hordes of Tories not voting. I'd think that was still a serious risk. People do sometimes think "I don't like the alternative but I'm not voting FOR this shower, so I'll sit this one out".
In 1997 the Tory voteshare was down 11% on 1992 and the Labour voteshare was up 9% on 1992, yes some Tories stayed at home or voted Referendum Party but the main movement was voters who could not stand Kinnock and voted Tory in 1992 were prepared to vote for Blair and switched to Labour in 1997
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
I really don’t think sstill get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
Hubris. Pure hubris.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advango pdq,
What 'fiasco' over Brexit? The Corbyn Labour. significant
I am not pro - Brexit yet voted Tory in 2017 and I know many other Tory voters who do not support Brexit. People like you propagate this myth about the Tory voters being overwhelmingly pro Brexit but it is an illusion. Maybe you mix with people with pro-Brexit viewpoints, I do not know and so think Brexit is some golden panacea.
At some point May will stop being able to please both sides and then the Tories are going to split. If May was a good leader she should have engineered things so Labour split and some joined her in government whilst excluding these stupid, economically illiterate Brexit supporters who simply either do not understand the economic fallout or do not care. Historically the Tories have been the party of economic management. Brexit is destroying this and at some point the forces will rip the Tories asunder.
66% of Leave voters are voting Tory but just 21% of Remain voters are now Tory voters
If you are a Remain voter voting Tory you are more likely to be voting against Corbyn than for the Tories.
Tories can win even in a recession when the alternative is a left wing Labour leader, see 1992. Tories can lose even when the economy is booming when the alternative is a charismatic centrist Labour leader, see 1997
Sorry, not my experience of Tory voters.
You might find some new Tory voters who are massively in favour of Brexit and lent their support in 2017 to the Tories but to state that Conservatives homogenously support Brexit is a myth. It is simply not the case. I know many Tories who think Brexit is an economic act of self harm, they do not agree with it. They will only be pushed so far by this process and they will either stop voting Tory or even back other parties.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
It's nailed on provided that they behave like adults. The kind of self indulgent tosh we are seeing from both sides of the argument at the moment would embarrass the average 5 year old. They really need to get a grip and if May is simply incapable of that they need to get rid.
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elagree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencheditching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed und.
Why would the Tories be more vulnerable to a LD revival given the LDs are now the anti Brexit party and most Labour voters voted Remain while most Tory voters voted Leave. I can assure you the anti-Corbyn vote is also not going to mellow
You keep on asserting that all people who vote Tory are supporters of Brexit and this is simply not true. Indeed, the Tories might well end up not pleasing nutcase Brexit supporters like you and displeasing the more realistic and economically pragmatic voters like me. Brexit is an economic disaster looming on the horizon and those who propagate Brexit are too thick to see what is coming.
No I did not say ALL Tories are supporters of Brexit if you bothered to read a word I said, I said 21% of Remainers are voting Tory principally to stop Corbyn but most of the Tory vote is made up of Leave voters which is correct.
For the record I myself voted Remain but 52% of the country voted Leave and you only need 40-45% to win under FPTP. You are clearly a diehard Remainer who hates Brexit, most of your demographic would not now touch the Tories with a bargepole or if they would only to vote against Corbyn
I really don’t think sstill get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
Hubris. Pure hubris.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advango pdq,
What 'fiasco' over Brexit? The Corbyn Labour. significant
I am not pro - Brexit yet voted Tory in 2017 and I know many other Tory voters who do not support Brexit. People like you propagate this myth about the Tory voters being overwhelmingly pro Brexit but it is an illusion. Maybe you mix with people with pro-Brexit viewpoints, I do not know and so think Brexit is some golden panacea.
At some point May will stop being able to please both sides and then the Tories are going to split. If May was a good leader she should have engineered things so Labour split and some joined her in government whilst excluding these stupid, economically illiterate Brexit supporters who simply either do not understand the economic fallout or do not care. Historically the Tories have been the party of economic management. Brexit is destroying this and at some point the forces will rip the Tories asunder.
66% of Leave voters are voting Tory but just 21% of Remain voters are now Tory voters
You might find some new Tory voters who are massively in favour of Brexit and lent their support in 2017 to the Tories but to state that Conservatives homogenously support Brexit is a myth. It is simply not the case. I know many Tories who think Brexit is an economic act of self harm, they do not agree with it. They will only be pushed so far by this process and they will either stop voting Tory or even back other parties.
Well your 'experience' of Tory voters does not tally with the polling, so tough.
The vast majority of Tory voters are Leave voters now and those that aren't are voting Tory mainly to stop Corbyn
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how theg I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think sll get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencheditching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
Why would the Tories be more vulnerable to a LD revival given the LDs are now the anti Brexit party and most Labour voters voted Remain while most Tory voters voted Leave. I can assure you the anti-Corbyn vote is also not going to mellow
Because as the LD vote rises, it is Tory seats that start to fall first?
Not in Tory v Labour marginals, see 2005 when the Tory vote rose just 0.7%, the LD vote rose 3.7% and the Tories made 33 net gains and the LDs just 11
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM aof exactly the same result.
ard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think sstill get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencr switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advantage is wafer thin and far too close for comfort. Both blocks look very solid but a fiasco over Brexit could seriously dent the Tory vote, putting Coryn into pole position. The Tories are skating on very thin ice and need to get a grip. TM I think is a busted flush and needs to go pdq,
What 'fiasco' over Brexit? The Tory vote is now overwhelmingly pro Brexit and full of Leave voters who will support Brexit regardless with a few Remainers added in who despise Corbyn, neither are going to switch to Corbyn Labour. Indeed the Tories face a bigger danger of BINO seeing switchers back to UKIP than any new movement to a Corbyn led Labour Party. May is still polling a higher Tory voteshare than any other Tory leader since at least Major in 1992 or Thatcher in 1983 when the anti Kinnock vote and anti Foot votes were also very significant
BINO would be a fiasco of epic proportions, given all that May has said. If that happened the voters would eventually wake up and pay full attention to just how ineptly BREXIT has been handled, with all the lies, double dealing and sheer pathetic lack of leadership from Mrs May. There would be hell to pay.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM aof exactly the same result.
ard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think sstill get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrencr switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
The Tory advantage is wafer thin and far too close for comfort. Both blocks look very solid but a fiasco over Brexit could seriously dent the Tory vote, putting Coryn into pole position. The Tories are skating on very thin ice and need to get a grip. TM I think is a busted flush and needs to go pdq,
What 'fiasco' over Brexit? The Tory vote is now overwhelmingly pro Brexit and full of Leave voters who will support Brexit regardless with a few Remainers added in who despise Corbyn, neither are going to switch to Corbyn ck vote and anti Foot votes were also very significant
BINO would be a fiasco of epic proportions, given all that May has said. If that happened the voters would eventually wake up and pay full attention to just how ineptly BREXIT has been handled, with all the lies, double dealing and sheer pathetic lack of leadership from Mrs May. There would be hell to pay.
Which is why new Tory leadership favourite Sajid Javid has made clear freedom of movement must be replaced by a global points system as City AM reports tomorrow and as the Vote Leave campaign promised
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
It's nailed on provided that they behave like adults. The kind of self indulgent tosh we are seeing from both sides of the argument at the moment would embarrass the average 5 year old. They really need to get a grip and if May is simply incapable of that they need to get rid.
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
The strongest argument propping up the Conservative vote is the same one that won it for them in 2015. The English find the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP immensely unpalatable.
Yes, I know that statement is laden with irony, given the current role of the DUP, but one thing the Conservatives have done very well with both their DUP and former Lib Dem partners is give the impression it is still a Conservative government.
Oh, and hello, Solarflare!
It might be true that a majority of the English find the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP immensely unpalatable, but a sizeable minority would welcome it.
For many of us, anything would be better that the current shambles.
The SNP in government would mean the West Lothian question could no longer be ignored. What form that would take, I'm not sure - the English have never felt the need for their own parliament - but I don't think the union could take the strain of Scots nationalists dictating policy in regard to England. I think the SNP know that, too, which is why they would stir up as much trouble as they can...
As a Scot who has no qualms about supporting England I am seriously nervous about tomorrow. If England go out tomorrow all the positive vibes about progress will fall away and the abysmal record in knock out games will continue and become a burden for a new generation. If they win tomorrow it almost doesn't matter what happens after that. It will be mission accomplished for this young team.
I wrote the match off for England as soon as I saw it was on ITV. I don't know why England can't play on ITV, but the evidence seems irrefutable. Maybe it's some sort of karmic punishment from the god of football for Barry Davies.
"Channel 5 - the channel that brings you England goals!" - Jonathan Pearce, 1997, Poland v. England.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the eleagree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
It's nailed on provided that they behad if May is simply incapable of that they need to get rid.
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
If there is not a deal most Leave voting Tories will blame the EU rather than the government, the Left and diehard Remainers will blame the government rather than the EU and again nothing will change while the Corbyn factor remains exactly as before
A story which has been in the news for weeks if not months and was even reported 18 years ago with nothing coming of it and took place at a fundraiser to raise money for an avalanche safety charity after the death of his brother in an avalanche and before Trudeau had even entered politics
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/freeze-on-fuel-duty-may-be-lifted-to-help-meet-nhs-promises
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
Combined with all the other non-standard stuff of that time such as self-cert 'liar loan' mortgages, interest only mortgages, high earnings multiple mortgages and BTL mortgages and the banking system was too exposed to adverse events.
That's got Theresa's name all over it.
https://www.thepeoplesnewsonline.co.uk/single-post/2018/07/02/hoey-could-be-first-labour-troublemaker-to-be-deselected/
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/gove-floats-scrapping-hs2-because-he-believes-it-to-be-a-policy-with-a-growing-appeal.html
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
Certainly not on education, mind.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
But my basic starting point would be if Two Brian's or Letwin are anywhere close to the policy it will be a total disaster,,,,
Greater Mansfield, Greater Newark or Greater Doncaster ?
However getting to Manchester from York needs improvement.
Japan was robbed, that hard pressing style wiped them out by the end of the match. It nearly worked.They should have brought on some fresh legs. It was dying for Okazaki to come on in his whirlwind style and break things up.
This is a European cup. Only 3 non European teams left now, hopefully just 2 after tommorow.
At some point May will stop being able to please both sides and then the Tories are going to split. If May was a good leader she should have engineered things so Labour split and some joined her in government whilst excluding these stupid, economically illiterate Brexit supporters who simply either do not understand the economic fallout or do not care. Historically the Tories have been the party of economic management. Brexit is destroying this and at some point the forces will rip the Tories asunder.
"What if Gordon Banks had played": see http://web.archive.org/web/20071212170442/http://www.btinternet.com/~chief.gnome/
(it does not end well...)
I would much rather have increased rail capacity via new lines with stations so that every dozen miles or so passengers could get on and off. Regular inter city is fast enough, cheaper and greener.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xi51ey4b6h/TimesResults_180619_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
If you are a Remain voter voting Tory you are more likely to be voting against Corbyn than for the Tories.
Tories can win even in a recession when the alternative is a left wing Labour leader, see 1992. Tories can lose even when the economy is booming when the alternative is a charismatic centrist Labour leader, see 1997
https://youtu.be/8OBIIi26gaY
Yes, I know that statement is laden with irony, given the current role of the DUP, but one thing the Conservatives have done very well with both their DUP and former Lib Dem partners is give the impression it is still a Conservative government.
Oh, and hello, Solarflare!
For many of us, anything would be better that the current shambles.
any sudden new GE would only happen in the circumstances of governmental collapse and fratricide. In those circumstances it is hard to see the Tories prospering, and indeed they could be sorely afflicted. Voters don't like incompetence and division.
1. Corbyn
2. Brexit
3. Almost full employment.
You might find some new Tory voters who are massively in favour of Brexit and lent their support in 2017 to the Tories but to state that Conservatives homogenously support Brexit is a myth. It is simply not the case. I know many Tories who think Brexit is an economic act of self harm, they do not agree with it. They will only be pushed so far by this process and they will either stop voting Tory or even back other parties.
For the record I myself voted Remain but 52% of the country voted Leave and you only need 40-45% to win under FPTP. You are clearly a diehard Remainer who hates Brexit, most of your demographic would not now touch the Tories with a bargepole or if they would only to vote against Corbyn
The vast majority of Tory voters are Leave voters now and those that aren't are voting Tory mainly to stop Corbyn
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
https://twitter.com/JonnElledge/status/1013885314828554240
- Jonathan Pearce, 1997, Poland v. England.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5910715/Justin-Trudeau-denies-groping-female-reporter-18-years-ago.html