Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
If May was clever she'd see that a 2nd referendum would very likely give her the chance to land a softish Brexit:
Agree a sensible compromise deal with the EU and call a referendum to confirm acceptance with 'no deal' the alternitive if her deal is rejected by the voters. Much as I'd like her to offer Remain as an option she really doesn't have to do that. I suspect a soft Brexit would win by a country mile but if it were rejected then quite honestly the country would only have itself to blame.
If we've learnt anything from the last few years, surely it must be not to call an unnecessary vote where you think one outcome would be a disaster
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
If May was clever she'd see that a 2nd referendum would very likely give her the chance to land a softish Brexit:
Agree a sensible compromise deal with the EU and call a referendum to confirm acceptance with 'no deal' the alternitive if her deal is rejected by the voters. Much as I'd like her to offer Remain as an option she really doesn't have to do that. I suspect a soft Brexit would win by a country mile but if it were rejected then quite honestly the country would only have itself to blame.
Though any 'soft Brexit' would need at least a token concession on free movement
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
If May was clever she'd see that a 2nd referendum would very likely give her the chance to land a softish Brexit:
Agree a sensible compromise deal with the EU and call a referendum to confirm acceptance with 'no deal' the alternitive if her deal is rejected by the voters. Much as I'd like her to offer Remain as an option she really doesn't have to do that. I suspect a soft Brexit would win by a country mile but if it were rejected then quite honestly the country would only have itself to blame.
If we've learnt anything from the last few years, surely it must be not to call an unnecessary vote where you think one outcome would be a disaster
It's a fair point - trouble is, muddling on as we have been is shaping up to be a disaster anyway.
Japan are going to surprise Belgium tonight, aren't they.
I expect Gareth Southgate hopes so
Yes, I can hear him now saying "well, Japan would have been just as tough" as he explains why England limped to a 2-0 defeat to Colombia.
It at least excuses his 'cunning plan' to avoid Brazil if England lose to Columbia as he can argue Japan would have been just as hard, though obviously he wants to beat them
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
If May was clever she'd see that a 2nd referendum would very likely give her the chance to land a softish Brexit:
Agree a sensible compromise deal with the EU and call a referendum to confirm acceptance with 'no deal' the alternitive if her deal is rejected by the voters. Much as I'd like her to offer Remain as an option she really doesn't have to do that. I suspect a soft Brexit would win by a country mile but if it were rejected then quite honestly the country would only have itself to blame.
Japan's decision to ditch their coach three months ago looks inspired. They are quite a conservative bunch when it comes to football, but they knew they needed someone who understood the strength's of their players.
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
Uh, no, they suggest anything from a small Labour majority to a huge Tory majority would be on the cards. They only suggest a repeat of the last general election if you totally ignore their track record for having a large margin of error and ability to move significantly in the run-up to an election.
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
If May was clever she'd see that a 2nd referendum would very likely give her the chance to land a softish Brexit:
Agree a sensible compromise deal with the EU and call a referendum to confirm acceptance with 'no deal' the alternitive if her deal is rejected by the voters. Much as I'd like her to offer Remain as an option she really doesn't have to do that. I suspect a soft Brexit would win by a country mile but if it were rejected then quite honestly the country would only have itself to blame.
Though any 'soft Brexit' would need at least a token concession on free movement
Japan's decision to ditch their coach three months ago looks inspired. They are quite a conservative bunch when it comes to football, but they knew they needed someone who understood the strength's of their players.
"Hercule Poirot, Tin Tin and Snowy, your boys took a hell of a beating!"
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
Uh, no, they suggest anything from a small Labour majority to a huge Tory majority would be on the cards. They only suggest a repeat of the last general election if you totally ignore their track record for having a large margin of error and ability to move significantly in the run-up to an election.
No they don't, not one current poll suggests a Labour majority and not one current poll suggests a Tory landslide.
If you want to go on track record alone Survation who got the last general election almost spot on has a Tory lead of 1% in its latest poll, exactly the same as its final GE17 poll
FPT: I could not leave this colourable statement from @TSE about banks unremarked upon:-
"Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.
It was only one or two bad apples.
I'd have let them fail."
It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
I meant in terms of needing a bailout.
Northern Rock, RBS, and HBOS.
Two of which were old-fashioned mortgage providers who got caught out by over-enthusiastic lending on UK property. Zilch to do with the City as people normally think of it.
RBS and HBOS were not old-fashioned mortgage providers except in the most legacy sense.
I worked for one of them and I can assure you it was.
Japan's decision to ditch their coach three months ago looks inspired. They are quite a conservative bunch when it comes to football, but they knew they needed someone who understood the strength's of their players.
Japan's decision to ditch their coach three months ago looks inspired. They are quite a conservative bunch when it comes to football, but they knew they needed someone who understood the strength's of their players.
Martinez getting sacked in the morning
Indeed. I suspect his next job will be at Sky Sports.
I think the important thing to remember is that May's aim isn't to come up with a deal that meets Leavers' red lines, it's to come up with a deal which Leavers -say- meets their red lines. So the question is how many prominent and influential Leavers are actually true believers or think it's in their political best interests to oppose her to the end, and how many are really just concerned with their own careers. Boris may end up being her natural ally as an extremely high-profile Leaver who's only interested in his own advancement and public image
Japan's decision to ditch their coach three months ago looks inspired. They are quite a conservative bunch when it comes to football, but they knew they needed someone who understood the strength's of their players.
Japan's decision to ditch their coach three months ago looks inspired. They are quite a conservative bunch when it comes to football, but they knew they needed someone who understood the strength's of their players.
Martinez getting sacked in the morning
Indeed. I suspect his next job will be at Sky Sports.
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
Uh, no, they suggest anything from a small Labour majority to a huge Tory majority would be on the cards. They only suggest a repeat of the last general election if you totally ignore their track record for having a large margin of error and ability to move significantly in the run-up to an election.
No they don't, not one current poll suggests a Labour majority and not one current poll suggests a Tory landslide.
If you want to go on track record alone Survation who got the last general election almost spot on has a Tory lead of 1% in its latest poll, exactly the same as its final GE17 poll
So first you cherry pick the most accurate poll, then you compare now- with no election in sight- to the last poll a company had before an election. Do you seriously think that the fact that one pollster got a result within 1% days before an election means that polls are accurate now?
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
Uh, no, they suggest anything from a small Labour majority to a huge Tory majority would be on the cards. They only suggest a repeat of the last general election if you totally ignore their track record for having a large margin of error and ability to move significantly in the run-up to an election.
No they don't, not one current poll suggests a Labour majority and not one current poll suggests a Tory landslide.
If you want to go on track record alone Survation who got the last general election almost spot on has a Tory lead of 1% in its latest poll, exactly the same as its final GE17 poll
So first you cherry pick the most accurate poll, then you compare now- with no election in sight- to the last poll a company had before an election. Do you seriously think that the fact that one pollster got a result within 1% days before an election means that polls are accurate now?
Survation has got the last two general elections pretty much spot on in its final poll in 2015 and 2017 (albeit one was unpublished). I trust them that a new general election would be a completely pointless waste of time and effort which would leave Westminster in a virtually identical position to that before the election. Both anti Corbyn and pro Brexit Tories and anti Tory, anti Brexit Labour and LD voters are now completely dug in and neither will move an inch
That’s the goal keeper Dundee United fans remember.
He's made some high profile errors for Japan in the past.
I feel very sorry for Japan. Obviously a lot happened leading up to the second goal, but that foul given by the linesman was a joke. Kompany just fell over.
That’s the goal keeper Dundee United fans remember.
He's made some high profile errors for Japan in the past.
I feel very sorry for Japan. Obviously a lot happened leading up to the second goal, but that foul given by the linesman was a joke. Kompany just fell over.
Every half decent team in England is well represented in this Belgian squad. They were my bet before the tournament started but they have to do better than this.
FPT: I could not leave this colourable statement from @TSE about banks unremarked upon:-
"Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.
It was only one or two bad apples.
I'd have let them fail."
It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
FPT: I could not leave this colourable statement from @TSE about banks unremarked upon:-
"Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.
It was only one or two bad apples.
I'd have let them fail."
It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
I meant in terms of needing a bailout.
Northern Rock, RBS, and HBOS.
Two of which were old-fashioned mortgage providers who got caught out by over-enthusiastic lending on UK property. Zilch to do with the City as people normally think of it.
At the time I was scared and bewildered by the idea of 125% LTV mortgages.
To be fair to Northern Rock the default rate on their 125% mortgages has been surprisingly low - much better than some less aggressive loans by other less careful banks
FPT: I could not leave this colourable statement from @TSE about banks unremarked upon:-
"Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.
It was only one or two bad apples.
I'd have let them fail."
It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
I meant in terms of needing a bailout.
Northern Rock, RBS, and HBOS.
Two of which were old-fashioned mortgage providers who got caught out by over-enthusiastic lending on UK property. Zilch to do with the City as people normally think of it.
At the time I was scared and bewildered by the idea of 125% LTV mortgages.
To be fair to Northern Rock the default rate on their 125% mortgages has been surprisingly low - much better than some less aggressive loans by other less careful banks
I've had four mortgages in my lifetime, the highest LTV I've ever had is 60% and that was my first mortgage.
Japan has played by far the best football of all the serious dogs in the last 16. Russia in particular tactics really stunk, and I'm glad Denmark are out too now
FPT: I could not leave this colourable statement from @TSE about banks unremarked upon:-
"Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.
It was only one or two bad apples.
I'd have let them fail."
It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
I meant in terms of needing a bailout.
Northern Rock, RBS, and HBOS.
Two of which were old-fashioned mortgage providers who got caught out by over-enthusiastic lending on UK property. Zilch to do with the City as people normally think of it.
At the time I was scared and bewildered by the idea of 125% LTV mortgages.
To be fair to Northern Rock the default rate on their 125% mortgages has been surprisingly low - much better than some less aggressive loans by other less careful banks
I've had four mortgages in my lifetime, the highest LTV I've ever had is 60% and that was my first mortgage.
I still cannot comprehend 125%.
Famously one of AIG's model which they used to price up their CDS contracts didn't allow them to enter negative house price growth.
FPT: I could not leave this colourable statement from @TSE about banks unremarked upon:-
"Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.
It was only one or two bad apples.
I'd have let them fail."
It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
I meant in terms of needing a bailout.
Northern Rock, RBS, and HBOS.
Two of which were old-fashioned mortgage providers who got caught out by over-enthusiastic lending on UK property. Zilch to do with the City as people normally think of it.
At the time I was scared and bewildered by the idea of 125% LTV mortgages.
To be fair to Northern Rock the default rate on their 125% mortgages has been surprisingly low - much better than some less aggressive loans by other less careful banks
We had a NR 125% mortgage. In fact if memory served it was a 100% mortgage and the rest was an unsecured personal loan. Although our mortgage was assigned to the "bad bank" created from NR, we paid it off in full when we sold our house to move to the US.
Here our first mortgage was also > 100% but it was a federally-sponsored "renovation" mortgage: we bought a fixer-upper and the extra amount borrowed was for doing the fixing up. This increased the value of the property enough that we were able to remortgage to a conventional mortgage a couple of years later. Here in the US almost all mortgages are fixed-rate for the duration of the loan.
When Linekar started saying "the last time a team came from 2-0 down to win a knock-out match..." I just knew what game it was going to be. There's not an election in Japan anytime soon, is there?
When Linekar started saying "the last time a team came from 2-0 down to win a knock-out match..." I just knew what game it was going to be. There's not an election in Japan anytime soon, is there?
FPT: I could not leave this colourable statement from @TSE about banks unremarked upon:-
"Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.
It was only one or two bad apples.
I'd have let them fail."
It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
I meant in terms of needing a bailout.
Northern Rock, RBS, and HBOS.
Two of which were old-fashioned mortgage providers who got caught out by over-enthusiastic lending on UK property. Zilch to do with the City as people normally think of it.
At the time I was scared and bewildered by the idea of 125% LTV mortgages.
To be fair to Northern Rock the default rate on their 125% mortgages has been surprisingly low - much better than some less aggressive loans by other less careful banks
I've had four mortgages in my lifetime, the highest LTV I've ever had is 60% and that was my first mortgage.
I still cannot comprehend 125%.
I agree. It’s basically a leveraged bet on property prices.
But the default rates suggest that Northern Rock were doing their homework
When Linekar started saying "the last time a team came from 2-0 down to win a knock-out match..." I just knew what game it was going to be. There's not an election in Japan anytime soon, is there?
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be even closer than the EU referendum, neither would solve a thing in fact arguably they would leave us even more divided than we are now. Just imagine a PM Corbyn propped up by the LDs and the SNP with the Tories still largest party and a 'people's vote' won by 51% either way
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
I never really saw the problem with 125% mortgages. Basically the borrower was getting to borrow at secured rates even if the mortgage was partly unsecured. Inflation was always likely to fix the unsecured bit in a reasonable period. If you paid a few tenths extra for the risk everyone is a winner.
I never really saw the problem with 125% mortgages. Basically the borrower was getting to borrow at secured rates even if the mortgage was partly unsecured. Inflation was always likely to fix the unsecured bit in a reasonable period. If you paid a few tenths extra for the risk everyone is a winner.
You were effectively betting on property prices never falling is how I saw it.
I thought that was a courageous view.
Can you imagine the negative equity on that.
Plus if there was a default the bank would surely lose out?
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
When Linekar started saying "the last time a team came from 2-0 down to win a knock-out match..." I just knew what game it was going to be. There's not an election in Japan anytime soon, is there?
What was the answer?
Edit - Germany v England 1970?
West Germany ! Just four days before Polling Day. Far fewer postal votes in those days so it might well have made a difference.
Corbyn is unlikely to be able to force a General Election, but I suppose the Tories could decide that a General Election is the best way to get them off the hook of their own making. If Labour won any GE the question would then be what could they do that would be acceptable to the E U and the people. It's such a mess and there are so many contradictions. A 'People's Vote' is looking better and better.
Polls suggest another general election would practically repeat the last general election result, a 'people's vote' could be evher way
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again (b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway (c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
a) The Tory voteshare was virtually unchanged from before the GE was called to the GE result, all that happened was any move to the Tories reversed after the Dementia Tax and Corbyn squeezed the LD and Green and the UKIP vote which did not go Tory to the bone, they cannot be squeezed any further. b) I focused on Survation which got GE17 pretty much spot on. c) With no swing it does not make a difference how many marginals there are there will be no change.
So I repeat a General Election tomorrow would be completely pointless, especially given the sizeable entrenched anti Corbyn vote, not to mention Corbyn and May agree on virtually everything on Brexit bar the precise definition of 'a' not 'the' customs partnership they want to stay in so it would be pointless as regards Brexit too.
Comments
If you want to go on track record alone Survation who got the last general election almost spot on has a Tory lead of 1% in its latest poll, exactly the same as its final GE17 poll
I feel very sorry for Japan. Obviously a lot happened leading up to the second goal, but that foul given by the linesman was a joke. Kompany just fell over.
She is saying “we are leaving and none of your bullshit political games are changing that”
Don't cry 4 3 Argentina
“You didn’t like that Hung Parliament? See how you like this!”
I still cannot comprehend 125%.
Belgium showed some guts to come back.
And the last goal showed the wisdom of not bringing every player back to defend set pieces.
Here our first mortgage was also > 100% but it was a federally-sponsored "renovation" mortgage: we bought a fixer-upper and the extra amount borrowed was for doing the fixing up. This increased the value of the property enough that we were able to remortgage to a conventional mortgage a couple of years later. Here in the US almost all mortgages are fixed-rate for the duration of the loan.
Edit - Germany v England 1970?
But the default rates suggest that Northern Rock were doing their homework
(a) the polls saw a significant movement during the campaign AFTER the GE was called, which could easily happen again
(b) most of the polls failed to accurately predict the GE2017 result anyway
(c) a number of the seats are held on wafer thin majorities - aren't there people on this site who calculated the number of votes Corbyn needed to potentially become PM as being a relatively small number (I could be wrong but approximately a couple of thousand from memory?).
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help or not is a different question, I readily accept, and I agree that it is not a *given* that the result would be different but neither do I buy the logic that there's no point thinking about another GE as it would be a near-guarantee of exactly the same result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7vsoVR5NX4
I thought that was a courageous view.
Can you imagine the negative equity on that.
Plus if there was a default the bank would surely lose out?
Perthshire
Fife
Lancashire
Cambridgeshire
Herefordshire
Kent
b) I focused on Survation which got GE17 pretty much spot on.
c) With no swing it does not make a difference how many marginals there are there will be no change.
So I repeat a General Election tomorrow would be completely pointless, especially given the sizeable entrenched anti Corbyn vote, not to mention Corbyn and May agree on virtually everything on Brexit bar the precise definition of 'a' not 'the' customs partnership they want to stay in so it would be pointless as regards Brexit too.
Otherwise welcome to PB posting