As a Scot who has no qualms about supporting England I am seriously nervous about tomorrow. If England go out tomorrow all the positive vibes about progress will fall away and the abysmal record in knock out games will continue and become a burden for a new generation. If they win tomorrow it almost doesn't matter what happens after that. It will be mission accomplished for this young team.
I wrote the match off for England as soon as I saw it was on ITV. I don't know why England can't play on ITV, but the evidence seems irrefutable. Maybe it's some sort of karmic punishment from the god of football for Barry Davies.
All England's games were on ITV for qualification to this year's world cup.
Harry Kane is now odds-on with most firms to be top-scorer at the World Cup. There is still evens available in a couple of places. Lukaku has doubled in price after not scoring for Belgium tonight.
I've just been watching the 1966 final -- both sides were out on their feet during extra time.
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
1997 wasn't about hordes of Tories switching to Labour. It was mostly about hordes of Tories not voting. I'd think that was still a serious risk. People do sometimes think "I don't like the alternative but I'm not voting FOR this shower, so I'll sit this one out".
In 1997 the Tory voteshare was down 11% on 1992 and the Labour voteshare was up 9% on 1992, yes some Tories stayed at home or voted Referendum Party but the main movement was voters who could not stand Kinnock and voted Tory in 1992 were prepared to vote for Blair and switched to Labour in 1997
Nick is right. In many safe Labour seats the actual Labour vote was down in 1997 compared to 1992, although the Labour percentage share went up because turnout was down.
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
1997 wasn't about hordes of Tories switching to Labour. It was mostly about hordes of Tories not voting. I'd think that was still a serious risk. People do sometimes think "I don't like the alternative but I'm not voting FOR this shower, so I'll sit this one out".
In 1997 the Tory voteshare was down 11% on 1992 and the Labour voteshare was up 9% on 1992, yes some Tories stayed at home or voted Referendum Party but the main movement was voters who could not stand Kinnock and voted Tory in 1992 were prepared to vote for Blair and switched to Labour in 1997
Nick is right. In many safe Labour seats the actual Labour vote was down in 1997 compared to 1992, although the Labour percentage share went up because turnout was down.
The Labour vote nationally was 13.5 million in 1997, 2 million more than the 11.5 million for Labour in 1992 even accounting for the slightly lower overall turnout
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
If there is not a deal most Leave voting Tories will blame the EU rather than the government, the Left and diehard Remainers will blame the government rather than the EU and again nothing will change while the Corbyn factor remains exactly as before
I recall the fuel protests of 2000 and the dramatic change in the polls they wrought, and I consider the effects of chaos at British ports, panic-buying leading to shortages and the announcements of jobs being lost. The government will be expected to right the wrongs being created and they will be blamed for any continuation, if not for the immediate cause.
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
If there is not a deal most Leave voting Tories will blame the EU rather than the government, the Left and diehard Remainers will blame the government rather than the EU and again nothing will change while the Corbyn factor remains exactly as before
I recall the fuel protests of 2000 and the dramatic change in the polls they wrought, and I consider the effects of chaos at British ports, panic-buying leading to shortages and the announcements of jobs being lost. The government will be expected to right the wrongs being created and they will be blamed for any continuation, if not for the immediate cause.
Oh do you now and what was the result at the general election the following year? The government was re elected by a landslide as the voters could not stomach Hague just as so many current Tory voters cannot stomach Corbyn! Plus of course the bulk of the remainder of the Tory vote now is made up of ideological Brexiteers
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn but with some pro Brexit support added in too.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
How about genuine right wingers like me that havent voted for the conservatives since call me dave turned them into a left wing party and who see a vote for corbyn as a way of forcing a proper right wing alternative to emerge?
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn but with some pro Brexit support added in too.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
'How about genuine right wingers like me that havent voted for the conservatives since call me dave turned them into a left wing part and who see a vote for corbyn as a way of forcing a proper right wing alternative to emerge?'
Well given the choice between the 8.4 million votes Hague got in 2001 and the 8.7 million votes Howard got in 2005 compared to the 11.3 million votes Cameron got in 2015 and the 13.6 million votes May got in 2017 I think the Tories can afford to let you indulge your whims don't you?
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn but with some pro Brexit support added in too.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
'How about genuine right wingers like me that havent voted for the conservatives since call me dave turned them into a left wing part and who see a vote for corbyn as a way of forcing a proper right wing alternative to emerge?'
Well given the choice between the 8.4 million votes Hague got in 2001 and the 8.7 million votes Howard got in 2005 compared to the 11.3 million votes Cameron got in 2015 and the 13.6 million votes May got in 2017 I think the Tories can afford to let you indulge your whims don't you?
they only just beat corbyn last time, you are far too complacent. Last time I merely abstained after seeing the fuck up that is May the tories need to be brought down so they can rethink
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
If there is not a deal most Leave voting Tories will blame the EU rather than the government, the Left and diehard Remainers will blame the government rather than the EU and again nothing will change while the Corbyn factor remains exactly as before
I recall the fuel protests of 2000 and the dramatic change in the polls they wrought, and I consider the effects of chaos at British ports, panic-buying leading to shortages and the announcements of jobs being lost. The government will be expected to right the wrongs being created and they will be blamed for any continuation, if not for the immediate cause.
Oh do you now and what was the result at the general election the following year? The government was re elected by a landslide as the voters could not stomach Hague just as so many current Tory voters cannot stomach Corbyn! Plus of course the bulk of the remainder of the Tory vote now is made up of ideological Brexiteers
The fuel protests were resolved a lot more quickly than a no-deal Brexit is likely to be.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the election comes about. If the Tory government falls because they tear each other apart all bets are off. People will not put up with that sort of self indulgence. If they deliver a Brexit that most people can live with Labour will be in trouble. Which is a long winded way of saying I agree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No,
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
It's nailed on provided that they behave like adults. The kind of self indulgent tosh we are seeing from both sides of the argument at the moment would embarrass the average 5 year old. They really need to get a grip and if May is simply incapable of that they need to get rid.
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
Public opinion has become so hard to predict. I could see the voters behaving like that. I could also see the voters rallying to the government.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn but with some pro Brexit support added in too.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
'How about genuine right wingers like me that havent voted for the conservatives since call me dave turned them into a left wing part and who see a vote for corbyn as a way of forcing a proper right wing alternative to emerge?'
Well given the choice between the 8.4 million votes Hague got in 2001 and the 8.7 million votes Howard got in 2005 compared to the 11.3 million votes Cameron got in 2015 and the 13.6 million votes May got in 2017 I think the Tories can afford to let you indulge your whims don't you?
'they only just beat corbyn last time, you are far too complacent. Last time I merely abstained after seeing the fuck up that is May the tories need to be brought down so they can rethink'
The Tories got over 50 more seats than Corbyn did, in 2001 they got almost 120 fewer seats than they did in 2017, if anyone is being complacent about the electoral appeal of a rerun of the 2001 Tory general election campaign it is you!
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
If there is not a deal most Leave voting Tories will blame the EU rather than the government, the Left and diehard Remainers will blame the government rather than the EU and again nothing will change while the Corbyn factor remains exactly as before
I recall the fuel protests of 2000 and the dramatic change in the polls they wrought, and I consider the effects of chaos at British ports, panic-buying leading to shortages and the announcements of jobs being lost. The government will be expected to right the wrongs being created and they will be blamed for any continuation, if not for the immediate cause.
Oh do you now and what was the result at the general election the following year? The government was re elected by a landslide as the voters could not stomach Hague just as so many current Tory voters cannot stomach Corbyn! Plus of course the bulk of the remainder of the Tory vote now is made up of ideological Brexiteers
The fuel protests were resolved a lot more quickly than a no-deal Brexit is likely to be.
Key difference, most of the fuel protestors are now ideological Brexiteers
People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
So far as local Govt goes, two tier authorities need to go and everywhere switch to unitary
Won't happen. Too many Tory placeholders with power. Agree they probably should.
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
If there is not a deal most Leave voting Tories will blame the EU rather than the government, the Left and diehard Remainers will blame the government rather than the EU and again nothing will change while the Corbyn factor remains exactly as before
I recall the fuel protests of 2000 and the dramatic change in the polls they wrought, and I consider the effects of chaos at British ports, panic-buying leading to shortages and the announcements of jobs being lost. The government will be expected to right the wrongs being created and they will be blamed for any continuation, if not for the immediate cause.
Oh do you now and what was the result at the general election the following year? The government was re elected by a landslide as the voters could not stomach Hague just as so many current Tory voters cannot stomach Corbyn! Plus of course the bulk of the remainder of the Tory vote now is made up of ideological Brexiteers
The fuel protests were resolved a lot more quickly than a no-deal Brexit is likely to be.
Key difference, most of the fuel protestors are now ideological Brexiteers!
That has nothing to do with it.
The point of the parallel is the speed with which public opinion can change if the public don't believe the government is in control of a situation that affects them. When such a basic issue of competence is at stake mere details about who supported which side in a referendum nearly three years in the past will be immaterial.
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
A lot will turn on how the elgree!
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
No, not hubris. I have canvassed since 1997 and the Tory vote is more rock solid than I have ever known it, principally because of contempt for Corbyn but with some pro Brexit support added in too.
However there are also plenty of leftwingers who love Corbyn, he is the classic marmite politician
'How about genuine right wingers like me that havent voted for the conservatives since call me dave turned them into a left wing part and who see a vote for corbyn as a way of forcing a proper right wing alternative to emerge
Well given the choice between the 8.4 million votes Hague got in 2001 and the 8.7 million votes Howard got in 2005 compared to the 11.3 million votes Cameron got in 2015 and the 13.6 million votes May got in 2017 I think the Tories can afford to let you indulge your whims don't you?
they only just beat corbyn last time, you are far too complacent. Last time I merely abstained after seeing the fuck up that is May the tories need to be brought down so they can rethink
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Their behaviour is grotesque. But, the voters don't seem too upset.
That the average Tory poll lead is currently 2% is remarkable given Cabinet disunity and the apparent lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. My guess is that the public are giving the government the benefit of the doubt while the negotiations are still in progress. They, probably sensibly to an extent, assume that the media is exaggerating the difficulties and the splits.
If there is not a deal, though, and a disorderly Brexit with no preparation, then the public mood could change rapidly. Assumptions about Corbyn ensuring a minimum level of support for the Tories may turn out to look ridiculous in hindsight.
If there is not a deal most Leave voting Tories will blame the EU rather than the government, the Left and diehard Remainers will blame the government rather than the EU and again nothing will change while the Corbyn factor remains exactly as before
I recall the fuel protests of 2000 and the dramatic change in the poe immediate cause.
Oh do you now and whate up of ideological Brexiteers
The fuel protests were resolved a lot more quickly than a no-deal Brexit is likely to be.
Key difference, most of the fuel protestors are now ideological Brexiteers!
That has nothing to do with it.
The point of the parallel is the speed with which public opinion can change if the public don't believe the government is in control of a situation that affects them. When such a basic issue of competence is at stake mere details about who supported which side in a referendum nearly three years in the past will be immaterial.
Nope that has EVERYTHING to do with it.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Prefer more borrowing, do you?
The deficit is falling - raising taxes won’t help.
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Prefer more borrowing, do you?
The deficit is falling - raising taxes won’t help.
Well, spending = tax + deficit. Spending has to increase for the NHS and social care, pretty much everyone agrees with that to some extent. So the left-hand side of the equation is going up, unless you can cut spending elsewhere, such as in defence. But there's not much fat there, or indeed anywhere else. Or you can increase borrowing, or to a limited extent you can cut tax rates in the hope of increasing tax revenue overall. If you're going to try the latter, you need to concentrate on those taxes which give you a leveraged return, which isn't fuel duty.
Osborne did unbelievably well balancing all these competing priorities, but after eight years and especially with Brexit damaging the economy at least in the short term, something has to give. Some modest tax rises are inevitable, it's just a question of choosing which and how much.
Edit: My suggestion would be cut business rates and if possible National Insurance, as the highest priorities for tax cuts if any. Increase fuel duty and duty on booze'n'fags a bit.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
I think at least a third of the electorate were not strongly convinced either way. They both wanted to regain sovereignty (to halt immigration) and were worried about the economic consequences of leaving the EU. In the end this group split somewhat in favour of Leave.
That a large fraction of Remain voters were in favour of regaining sovereignty (over immigration) has helped to bolster support for the government during the negotiations, and is something that Remain diehards have failed to understand.
However, this also means that there is a large pool of voters who could swing against the government if their economic fears are realised.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
If you think that 17 million people are largely idealogical Brexiteers you are ignoring a whole host of polling evidence that says otherwise.
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Prefer more borrowing, do you?
The deficit is falling - raising taxes won’t help.
Well, spending = tax + deficit. Spending has to increase for the NHS and social care, pretty much everyone agrees with that to some extent. So the left-hand side of the equation is going up, unless you can cut spending elsewhere, such as in defence. But there's not much fat there, or indeed anywhere else. Or you can increase borrowing, or to a limited extent you can cut tax rates in the hope of increasing tax revenue overall. If you're going to try the latter, you need to concentrate on those taxes which give you a leveraged return, which isn't fuel duty.
Osborne did unbelievably well balancing all these competing priorities, but after eight years and especially with Brexit damaging the economy at least in the short term, something has to give. Some modest tax rises are inevitable, it's just a question of choosing which and how much.
Edit: My suggestion would be cut business rates and if possible National Insurance, as the highest priorities for tax cuts if any. Increase fuel duty and duty on booze'n'fags a bit.
Freeze international aid, raise VED on gas guzzlers rather than fuel, cut on sales beer duty to help pubs etc etc - all too innovative for spreadsheet Phil.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
If you think that 17 million people are largely idealogical Brexiteers you are ignoring a whole host of polling evidence that says otherwise.
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Prefer more borrowing, do you?
The deficit is falling - raising taxes won’t help.
Well, spending = tax + deficit. Spending has to increase for the NHS and social care, pretty much everyone agrees with that to some extent. So the left-hand side of the equation is going up, unless you can cut spending elsewhere, such as in defence. But there's not much fat there, or indeed anywhere else. Or you can increase borrowing, or to a limited extent you can cut tax rates in the hope of increasing tax revenue overall. If you're going to try the latter, you need to concentrate on those taxes which give you a leveraged return, which isn't fuel duty.
Osborne did unbelievably well balancing all these competing priorities, but after eight years and especially with Brexit damaging the economy at least in the short term, something has to give. Some modest tax rises are inevitable, it's just a question of choosing which and how much.
Edit: My suggestion would be cut business rates and if possible National Insurance, as the highest priorities for tax cuts if any. Increase fuel duty and duty on booze'n'fags a bit.
Freeze international aid, raise VED on gas guzzlers rather than fuel, cut on sales beer duty to help pubs etc etc - all too innovative for spreadsheet Phil.
Yeah you can increase VED on gas guzzlers, but it's already high and why should someone who doesn't do many miles be fined? And it wouldn't raise much. Sure you can cut beer duty, but we're trying to find ways of raising revenue. International aid is around £13bn so freezing that won't save much, but in any case it's a political decision for the whole government, not just for the Chancellor.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
If you think that 17 million people are largely idealogical Brexiteers you are ignoring a whole host of polling evidence that says otherwise.
Am I? Almost every poll since the referendum has shown Leave at least on 40-45%+ and others almost unchanged from the 52% Leave got in 2016. The Leave vote was an ideological vote to Leave the EU however much you persist in your deluded view there is a 'silent majority' in the UK that wants to be a part of a Federal EU Superstate and part of the Eurozone
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
If you think that 17 million people are largely idealogical Brexiteers you are ignoring a whole host of polling evidence that says otherwise.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
I think at least a third of the electorate were not strongly convinced either way. They both wanted to regain sovereignty (to halt immigration) and were worried about the economic consequences of leaving the EU. In the end this group split somewhat in favour of Leave.
That a large fraction of Remain voters were in favour of regaining sovereignty (over immigration) has helped to bolster support for the government during the negotiations, and is something that Remain diehards have failed to understand.
However, this also means that there is a large pool of voters who could swing against the government if their economic fears are realised.
As I said the only Remainers still voting Tory are largely those who despise Corbyn and would not vote for him if their life depended on it
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
I think at least a third of the electorate were not strongly convinced either way. They both wanted to regain sovereignty (to halt immigration) and were worried about the economic consequences of leaving the EU. In the end this group split somewhat in favour of Leave.
That a large fraction of Remain voters were in favour of regaining sovereignty (over immigration) has helped to bolster support for the government during the negotiations, and is something that Remain diehards have failed to understand.
However, this also means that there is a large pool of voters who could swing against the government if their economic fears are realised.
As I said the only Remainers still voting Tory are largely those who despise Corbyn and would not vote for him if their life depended on it
Theresa's Tax Bombshell. People may vote Jezza in 2022 as the LOW tax alternative party!
And that's before we get on to "Two Brain's" plans to tax Tory voters into oblivion...
David Willets and Chris Grayling - all the talents
Not to mention the glorious "Sir" Oliver Letwin!!!!!!
Two Brain's was on This Week last week talking about taxing Tory voters into oblivion and one of his proposals was about a "shake up" of council tax...
Hold on a moment I thought. That sounds awfully like the "shake up" to the Rate's that happened in the 1980's, otherwise known as the Community Charge - AKA The Poll Tax - The brainchild of Mr Ollie Letwin.
One wonders if Letwin and Two Brain's have teamed up to try and come up with an even more unpopular way of funding local government than the Poll Tax....
A genuine question -- how would you fund local government spending including social care funding
Ooh! Sir! Sir (OGH)! Is it local income tax?
No, it`r not. The proper answer is site value rating. It solves several problems all at the same time.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
I think at least a third of the electorate were not strongly convinced either way. They both wanted to regain sovereignty (to halt immigration) and were worried about the economic consequences of leaving the EU. In the end this group split somewhat in favour of Leave.
That a large fraction of Remain voters were in favour of regaining sovereignty (over immigration) has helped to bolster support for the government during the negotiations, and is something that Remain diehards have failed to understand.
However, this also means that there is a large pool of voters who could swing against the government if their economic fears are realised.
As I said the only Remainers still voting Tory are largely those who despise Corbyn and would not vote for him if their life depended on it
That wasn't my point. The voters you have to worry about are the Leave voters who were a bit worried by the economy, but not enough to vote Remain. They're the voters who could change their mind if Brexit goes pear-shaped.
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Prefer more borrowing, do you?
The deficit is falling - raising taxes won’t help.
Well, spending = tax + deficit. Spending has to increase for the NHS and social care, pretty much everyone agrees with that to some extent. So the left-hand side of the equation is going up, unless you can cut spending elsewhere, such as in defence. But there's not much fat there, or indeed anywhere else. Or you can increase borrowing, or to a limited extent you can cut tax rates in the hope of increasing tax revenue overall. If you're going to try the latter, you need to concentrate on those taxes which give you a leveraged return, which isn't fuel duty.
Osborne did unbelievably well balancing all these competing priorities, but after eight years and especially with Brexit damaging the economy at least in the short term, something has to give. Some modest tax rises are inevitable, it's just a question of choosing which and how much.
Edit: My suggestion would be cut business rates and if possible National Insurance, as the highest priorities for tax cuts if any. Increase fuel duty and duty on booze'n'fags a bit.
Freeze international aid, raise VED on gas guzzlers rather than fuel, cut on sales beer duty to help pubs etc etc - all too innovative for spreadsheet Phil.
Yeah you can increase VED on gas guzzlers, but it's already high and why should someone who doesn't do many miles be fined? And it wouldn't raise much. Sure you can cut beer duty, but we're trying to find ways of raising revenue. International aid is around £13bn so freezing that won't save much, but in any case it's a political decision for the whole government, not just for the Chancellor.
There must be scope for transfering items into the International Aid budget, especially from Defence.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
I think at least a third of the electorate were not strongly convinced either way. They both wanted to regain sovereignty (to halt immigration) and were worried about the economic consequences of leaving the EU. In the end this group split somewhat in favour of Leave.
That a large fraction of Remain voters were in favour of regaining sovereignty (over immigration) has helped to bolster support for the government during the negotiations, and is something that Remain diehards have failed to understand.
However, this also means that there is a large pool of voters who could swing against the government if their economic fears are realised.
As I said the only Remainers still voting Tory are largely those who despise Corbyn and would not vote for him if their life depended on it
That wasn't my point. The voters you have to worry about are the Leave voters who were a bit worried by the economy, but not enough to vote Remain. They're the voters who could change their mind if Brexit goes pear-shaped.
There were practically none of those voters, if you were worried about the economy you voted Remain. Given the tales of economic apocalypse coming from the Remain camp as a consequence of a vote to leave the EU if you still voted Leave anyway regardless you were largely committing an ideological Leave vote to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration
Cons need to ditch this axis of wet flannel at no’s 10 and 11. Absolute guff at every turn - Soft on Brexit and soft on tax rises. Forget my vote while these two mongs run the show.
Prefer more borrowing, do you?
Tbh, we should be able to raise spending and keep reducing the deficit until it is under 1% of GDP such is the growth in tax receipts. The OBR needs to do much better with their in year forecasting. It's been absolutely atrocious.
Long time reader, first time poster. You appear to post a variation on this theme a lot. Doesn't it rather ignore:
It would be strange to expect that a new general election would suddenly result in a thumping majority for either party but I think given the above, plus the potential added double-six of either main party making it specifically and solely about Brexit, there is enough reason to suggest that a general election tomorrow could return a result that is sufficiently different to today.
Whether that would help esult.
Good first post, and welcome to the throng, solarflare. Yes, I think the electorate are pretty unpredictable at the moment, and could easily swing surprisingly during a new campaign. Hard to tell which way!
'
The Tories could quite literally eat each other alive in the Commons and still get 40%+ given Corbyn is the alternative. Not forgetting Labour is almost as divided on Brexit anyway
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
Tory support is solid due to:-
1. Corbyn 2. Brexit 3. Almost full employment.
I seriously question the third point. Many no longer on the unemployment register are far from being 'fully employed' and quite a few have been pressured into declaring themselves 'self -employed' despite having very uncertain earnings prospects ahead of them. Moreover, on a like for like basis - removing all the 'adjustments' to the data of the last nearly 40 years - unemployment is higher than in the 1970s - and much higher than back in the 1950s & 1960s.
I really don’t think so. They are in government. They have a duty to be responsible. If they are not they will be punished. Some may argue that they have been pretty irresponsible already. I think that they can still get away with it provided that they don’t self destruct.
No, that 40% is pretty much entrenched as an anti Corbyn vote now, regardless of what the Tories do. That does not mean Corbyn could not become PM by also getting 40% and with SNP and LD support but unless and until Labour get a new more moderate leader there is little chance of any real Tory to Labour switching
Hubris. Pure hubris.
40% is pretty much nailed on for the Tories, but one can still lose on 40%. The Opposition won 40%+, from 1945-1970.
Not sure why 40% is nailed on for the Tories. Their support doesn't seem any more solid than Labour's to me. Even their solid lead among the retired is largely cupboard love. And they are in power so have more potential to upset people. And they are a lot more vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival. Even the anti-Corbyn vote is going to mellow. You inevitably get less scary the longer you are around.
The strongest argument propping up the Conservative vote is the same one that won it for them in 2015. The English find the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP immensely unpalatable.
Yes, I know that statement is laden with irony, given the current role of the DUP, but one thing the Conservatives have done very well with both their DUP and former Lib Dem partners is give the impression it is still a Conservative government.
Oh, and hello, Solarflare!
It might be true that a majority of the English find the idea of a Labour government propped up by the SNP immensely unpalatable, but a sizeable minority would welcome it.
For many of us, anything would be better that the current shambles.
The SNP in government would mean the West Lothian question could no longer be ignored. What form that would take, I'm not sure - the English have never felt the need for their own parliament - but I don't think the union could take the strain of Scots nationalists dictating policy in regard to England. I think the SNP know that, too, which is why they would stir up as much trouble as they can...
But there is no prospect of the SNP being in government - any more than the DUP are at present!
That's not an EU requirement, that's a Good Friday agreement requirement surely.
Where does it say that?
It envisages a ratchet of tighter economic integration (as it assumes both parties are EU members). Putting any kind of new economic barriers in place goes against its fundamental principles.
That's not an EU requirement, that's a Good Friday agreement requirement surely.
Where does it say that?
It envisages a ratchet of tighter economic integration (as it assumes both parties are EU members). Putting any kind of new economic barriers in place goes against its fundamental principles.
Hm, hard to find the specific text you are referring to.
Comments
I've just been watching the 1966 final -- both sides were out on their feet during extra time.
Well given the choice between the 8.4 million votes Hague got in 2001 and the 8.7 million votes Howard got in 2005 compared to the 11.3 million votes Cameron got in 2015 and the 13.6 million votes May got in 2017 I think the Tories can afford to let you indulge your whims don't you?
they only just beat corbyn last time, you are far too complacent. Last time I merely abstained after seeing the fuck up that is May the tories need to be brought down so they can rethink
The Tories got over 50 more seats than Corbyn did, in 2001 they got almost 120 fewer seats than they did in 2017, if anyone is being complacent about the electoral appeal of a rerun of the 2001 Tory general election campaign it is you!
https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1013907264850284544?s=21
The point of the parallel is the speed with which public opinion can change if the public don't believe the government is in control of a situation that affects them. When such a basic issue of competence is at stake mere details about who supported which side in a referendum nearly three years in the past will be immaterial.
17 million voted Leave in the largest vote for anything in postwar UK history as they were largely ideological Brexiteers voting to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless forecasts of economic Armageddon from the Remain campaign. Leave voters are therefore on the whole clearly ideological and will stick to their support for Brexit come what may and for a Government willing to implement the Brexit they voted for however obstinate the EU may be
Osborne did unbelievably well balancing all these competing priorities, but after eight years and especially with Brexit damaging the economy at least in the short term, something has to give. Some modest tax rises are inevitable, it's just a question of choosing which and how much.
Edit: My suggestion would be cut business rates and if possible National Insurance, as the highest priorities for tax cuts if any. Increase fuel duty and duty on booze'n'fags a bit.
That a large fraction of Remain voters were in favour of regaining sovereignty (over immigration) has helped to bolster support for the government during the negotiations, and is something that Remain diehards have failed to understand.
However, this also means that there is a large pool of voters who could swing against the government if their economic fears are realised.
Seehofer's climbdown shows the CSU is essentially hooked on the coalition.
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-asks-treasury-for-brexit-analysis-11424409
Prime Minister Theresa May has asked the Treasury and Bank of England to draw up analysis of the impact of any Brexit deal struck with the UK.