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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three Score and Ten? Has the NHS reached the end of its natura

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    No its not, article 49 explicitly says the fallback applies to the UK, then Barnier said that it can't apply to the EU in contravention of what article 49 says.

    Secondly article 50 is something the EU signed up to not the UK alone. Without article 50 there is no article 49, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Paragraph 49 is specifically about North -South cooperation and the UK government is the competent authority - that's why it talks about the UK. Refer back to paragraph 46 which says that the principles are specific to the unique circumstance on the island of Ireland.
    The principles are specific to Ireland but that does not mean it applies to Ireland alone. Afterall Barnier isn't seeking it to apply to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland alone, he wants it to apply to the EU and Northern Ireland as he views the Republic of Ireland and the EU as indivisible. Well Northern Ireland and the UK are indivisible just the same and nothing in 46-50 contradicts that.
    Northern Ireland already has a unique position in the UK because it has a unilateral right to secede and reunify with Ireland. Everyone from Northern Ireland has the right to an Irish/EU passport.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,024
    Nigelb said:


    So why are we proceeding with HS2 (which is also over budget) but not proceeding with the Pennine project not a "Sod Everyone Else' approach?

    Look one moment you say you wish to honour the manifesto, and then you say you want to break it by scrapping HS2. Make your mind up. :)

    And again I repeat: the two projects are different. HS2 is a new railway line, and experience with HS1 and Crossrail are generally positive. In addition, saying HS2 is 'over budget' at the moment - and on the basis of those links you gave - is rather silly. It's still early days. ISTR similar was said about Crossrail early doors.

    The electrification schemes are massive updates to existing, operating railways, and the track record of these schemes - including ones currently ongoing - is very poor.

    I don't want the electrification schemes to be cancelled; they're needed. However I cannot see how they can be continued until Network Rail sorts out the delivery of such schemes. And sadly we cannot wait forever for that to happen, as new stock needs ordering, and we need to know whether it will be diesel, bi-mode or electric.

    It's all a bloody mess. But you don't have an answer.
    So if building a new line is the better option, then build a new transpennine link. Which I think is what was originally proposed back in 2014 ?
    That's HS3 / High Speed North / Northern Powwewrhouse Rail. I think the National Infrastructure Commission are looking into it, and how it will interconnect with HS2 to form an integrated network. I don't know what the current status of it is, or even what it's meant to be aside from the broadest outline.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    No its not, article 49 explicitly says the fallback applies to the UK, then Barnier said that it can't apply to the EU in contravention of what article 49 says.

    Secondly article 50 is something the EU signed up to not the UK alone. Without article 50 there is no article 49, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

    Paragraph 49 is specifically about North -South cooperation and the UK government is the competent authority - that's why it talks about the UK. Refer back to paragraph 46 which says that the principles are specific to the unique circumstance on the island of Ireland.
    The principles are specific to Ireland but that does not mean it applies to Ireland alone. Afterall Barnier isn't seeking it to apply to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland alone, he wants it to apply to the EU and Northern Ireland as he views the Republic of Ireland and the EU as indivisible. Well Northern Ireland and the UK are indivisible just the same and nothing in 46-50 contradicts that.
    Northern Ireland already has a unique position in the UK because it has a unilateral right to secede and reunify with Ireland. Everyone from Northern Ireland has the right to an Irish/EU passport.
    Utterly irrelevant and Articles 50 and 51 deal with that. Specifically Article 50 says there will be no variance between NI and UK unless NI agrees to it (they've not)! So that directly contradicts you.

    Article 51 says rights will be retained.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,626

    Nigelb said:


    So why are we proceeding with HS2 (which is also over budget) but not proceeding with the Pennine project not a "Sod Everyone Else' approach?

    Look one moment you say you wish to honour the manifesto, and then you say you want to break it by scrapping HS2. Make your mind up. :)

    And again I repeat: the two projects are different. HS2 is a new railway line, and experience with HS1 and Crossrail are generally positive. In addition, saying HS2 is 'over budget' at the moment - and on the basis of those links you gave - is rather silly. It's still early days. ISTR similar was said about Crossrail early doors.

    The electrification schemes are massive updates to existing, operating railways, and the track record of these schemes - including ones currently ongoing - is very poor.

    I don't want the electrification schemes to be cancelled; they're needed. However I cannot see how they can be continued until Network Rail sorts out the delivery of such schemes. And sadly we cannot wait forever for that to happen, as new stock needs ordering, and we need to know whether it will be diesel, bi-mode or electric.

    It's all a bloody mess. But you don't have an answer.
    So if building a new line is the better option, then build a new transpennine link. Which I think is what was originally proposed back in 2014 ?
    That's HS3 / High Speed North / Northern Powwewrhouse Rail. I think the National Infrastructure Commission are looking into it, and how it will interconnect with HS2 to form an integrated network. I don't know what the current status of it is, or even what it's meant to be aside from the broadest outline.
    Which rather proves my original point...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Penalty.....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Den v Cro looks like it might go to penalties...

    An explosive first few minutes and then nothing. Odd ...
    Ooops, shoot-out quality penalty :lol:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2018
    Woooooow......what a terrible penalty.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Shocking penalty, but how was the challenge not a straight red ? Cynical foul and the last man.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Looks like it'll be Denmark-Russia and probably one of the worst quality quarters of all time.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    Pulpstar said:

    Shocking penalty, but how was the challenge not a straight red ? Cynical foul and the last man.

    Rule changes, if the referee considers it an honest attempt to win the ball then it is just a yellow card.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    edited July 2018

    20:39
    Den v Cro looks like it might go to penalties...

    Ahem :)
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Shocking penalty, but how was the challenge not a straight red ? Cynical foul and the last man.

    If you concede a penalty you no longer get sent off, provided there was a genuine attempt to play the ball. That was marginal in this case, imo.

    http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10242286/ifab-anounces-law-changes-softening-rules-on-fouls-in-the-penalty-area
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,654
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like it'll be Denmark-Russia and probably one of the worst quality quarters of all time.

    Yep. Good save by Kasper. I dont really rate him at penalties usually, but missing that penalty will psychologically hit the Croats.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Having watched 1864, I have no choice but to cheer for the Danes.

    Let’s hope their goalie is more effective than the Dannevirke was last time it was used...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like it'll be Denmark-Russia and probably one of the worst quality quarters of all time.

    Argentina v Yugoslavia at Italia 90 was pretty bad.

    I think both sides decided to play for penalties from the very beginning.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Pulpstar said:

    Shocking penalty, but how was the challenge not a straight red ? Cynical foul and the last man.

    Personally I think football should bring in the penalty goal. As with Suarez v Ghana in 2010, come what may the defender was going to make sure Croatia didn't score.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like it'll be Denmark-Russia and probably one of the worst quality quarters of all time.

    Argentina v Yugoslavia at Italia 90 was pretty bad.

    I think both sides decided to play for penalties from the very beginning.
    Bit harsh.

    The Yugoslavs were really talented but IIRC had a man sent off early on.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    Past and present Spurs players are a bit shit at penalties tonight
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    terrible terrible penalties
    Are you England in disguise? :)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Pulpstar said:

    Shocking penalty, but how was the challenge not a straight red ? Cynical foul and the last man.

    If you concede a penalty you no longer get sent off, provided there was a genuine attempt to play the ball. That was marginal in this case, imo.

    http://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/10242286/ifab-anounces-law-changes-softening-rules-on-fouls-in-the-penalty-area
    Amusing that the article thinks that is the biggest change rather than the introduction of VAR.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Nigelb said:


    So why are we proceeding with HS2 (which is also over budget) but not proceeding with the Pennine project not a "Sod Everyone Else' approach?

    Look one moment you say you wish to honour the manifesto, and then you say you want to break it by scrapping HS2. Make your mind up. :)

    And again I repeat: the two projects are different. HS2 is a new railway line, and experience with HS1 and Crossrail are generally positive. In addition, saying HS2 is 'over budget' at the moment - and on the basis of those links you gave - is rather silly. It's still early days. ISTR similar was said about Crossrail early doors.

    The electrification schemes are massive updates to existing, operating railways, and the track record of these schemes - including ones currently ongoing - is very poor.

    I don't want the electrification schemes to be cancelled; they're needed. However I cannot see how they can be continued until Network Rail sorts out the delivery of such schemes. And sadly we cannot wait forever for that to happen, as new stock needs ordering, and we need to know whether it will be diesel, bi-mode or electric.

    It's all a bloody mess. But you don't have an answer.
    So if building a new line is the better option, then build a new transpennine link. Which I think is what was originally proposed back in 2014 ?
    That's HS3 / High Speed North / Northern Powwewrhouse Rail. I think the National Infrastructure Commission are looking into it, and how it will interconnect with HS2 to form an integrated network. I don't know what the current status of it is, or even what it's meant to be aside from the broadest outline.
    The other day it was reported Grayling is considering scrapping it...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    First shoot out save was quality, second was easy.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Graham Alexander would have been proud of that penalty.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    What happened to rule forbidding goalies from moving ahead on their goal lines?

    Some of these penalties are close to being 50/50 balls.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    If Dejan Lovren takes a penalty for Croatia then they are doomed.

    His last penalty for Liverpool was so off target that it left the universe.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Lots of missed penalties but they have all at least been on target. Keepers are having a great day.

    Not like Beckham sending the ball to Row Z
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Croatia through 3-2 on pens!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Lots of missed penalties but they have all at least been on target. Keepers are having a great day.

    Not like Beckham sending the ball to Row Z

    A lot of people have probably forgotten, but England did beat Spain on penalties 4-2 at Euro '96. One of those wot missed was Fernando Hierro, the current Spanish manager.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089
    Croatia will reach the final now.

    Its usual for a finalist to scrape through one of the knockout rounds.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    What happened to rule forbidding goalies from moving ahead on their goal lines?

    Some of these penalties are close to being 50/50 balls.

    It reminds me a bit of the 1990s MLS penalty shoot outs where they were like NHL hockey shoutout, but keepers could charge the kicker.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2018
    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Seehofer has resigned from office completely.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089
    They were two pretty crap games today.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:
    That leaves things just as confusing as they were. Will the new CSU leader stick with the CDU or not?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Scott_P said:
    That leaves things just as confusing as they were. Will the new CSU leader stick with the CDU or not?
    If not, the CDU will stand in Bavaria and the CSU will be finished.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,654

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089

    Scott_P said:
    That leaves things just as confusing as they were. Will the new CSU leader stick with the CDU or not?
    If not, the CDU will stand in Bavaria and the CSU will be finished.
    While the CSU stands in the rest of Germany - PR means they would only need 5%.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089
    Foxy said:

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

    Thanks for the thread header.
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    Foxy said:

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

    England really have a golden opportunity to get to a first semi-final since 1996. I'm not sure I trust them not to mess it up though.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2018

    Foxy said:

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

    England really have a golden opportunity to get to a first semi-final since 1996. I'm not sure I trust them not to mess it up though.
    Don't count chickens, not played Colombia etc, etc . . . but England really have a golden opportunity to get to a final, especially after today's games.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089
    Continuing the dreary fare of today the Tesco Strawberry score returns to a boring eight:

    Aberdeenshire
    Perthshire
    Fife
    Lancashire
    Nottinghamshire
    Cambridgeshire
    Herefordshire
    Kent
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Shocking penalty, but how was the challenge not a straight red ? Cynical foul and the last man.

    Personally I think football should bring in the penalty goal. As with Suarez v Ghana in 2010, come what may the defender was going to make sure Croatia didn't score.
    Just said that to my wife. There should have been no penalty in that situation, just an awarded goal, plus a red card. That will stop cynical fouls of that nature. At the moment, there is nothing to lose by making such fouls.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089

    Foxy said:

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

    England really have a golden opportunity to get to a first semi-final since 1996. I'm not sure I trust them not to mess it up though.
    I'd expect them to get past either Sweden or Switzerland but I think Columbia is going to be much harder than is expected.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    edited July 2018
    Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Theresa May must keep her Brexit customs union promise or risk being overthrown by Tory MPs.

    At Chequers, the Prime Minister must stick to her "no deal is better than a bad deal" mantra, or risk splitting the Conservative Party like Sir Robert Peel


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/01/history-bodes-tory-prime-minister-defies-party-theresa-may/
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,339

    Scott_P said:
    That leaves things just as confusing as they were. Will the new CSU leader stick with the CDU or not?
    German Twitter is interpreting it as a personal resignation because his party wouldn't back a breach with the CDU, but obviously that's not the only possibility. The coalition does have a majority without the CSU, so could soldier on whiule the CSU fights the AfD in the autumn State elections.
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    Foxy said:

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

    England really have a golden opportunity to get to a first semi-final since 1996. I'm not sure I trust them not to mess it up though.
    I'd expect them to get past either Sweden or Switzerland but I think Columbia is going to be much harder than is expected.
    I agree that Colombia is the game that worries me the most
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Theresa May must keep her Brexit customs union promise or risk being overthrown by Tory MPs.

    At Chequers, the Prime Minister must stick to her "no deal is better than a bad deal" mantra, or risk splitting the Conservative Party like Sir Robert Peel


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/01/history-bodes-tory-prime-minister-defies-party-theresa-may/

    Time for May to do a Major and tell MPs to trigger a confidence vote.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I've skimmed through comments and don't think anyone got the clues I posted earlier so I'm going to post them again, follow by solutions
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    World War One is chaos whatever the result (3,4,2,4)
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    World War One is chaos whatever the result (3,4,2,4)

    WORLDWARONEIS* anagrammed (chaos) = win, lose or draw
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    A bit tutti-frutti, psychoactively (5)
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Win draw or lose
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    A bit tutti-frutti, psychoactively (5)

    A bit (part of) tutti-frutTI, PSYchoactively = tipsy
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Tipsy
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Slow down
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    So looks like the ERG are making plans to oust Mrs May.

    Colour me shocked.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Win draw or lose

    Damn me for not giving you a moment!

    Good work
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Foxy said:

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

    England really have a golden opportunity to get to a first semi-final since 1996. I'm not sure I trust them not to mess it up though.
    I'd expect them to get past either Sweden or Switzerland but I think Columbia is going to be much harder than is expected.
    I agree that Colombia is the game that worries me the most
    Japan beat them and they were not great against Senegal.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Slow down

    How about you solve them faster? :p
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Slow down

    How about you solve them faster? :p
    I posted them both about 12 hours ago!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I've skimmed through comments and don't think anyone got the clues I posted earlier so I'm going to post them again, follow by solutions

    If French roll over he may be blamed (6)
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089
    Yorkcity said:

    Foxy said:

    Croatia going to need to play a lot better than that. Lucky escape for them.

    After yesterdays games, this is the right side of the draw to be in! Southgate is a master of strategy.

    Kasper done good, but Just 3 Leicester players left in the tournament. Lets have a Shinji Okazaki goal tommorow:)

    England really have a golden opportunity to get to a first semi-final since 1996. I'm not sure I trust them not to mess it up though.
    I'd expect them to get past either Sweden or Switzerland but I think Columbia is going to be much harder than is expected.
    I agree that Colombia is the game that worries me the most
    Japan beat them and they were not great against Senegal.
    They had a man sent off after three minutes against Japan.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    They voted against any and all amendments for a final say in parliament ffsake. That doesn't just apply to for if the Soubrys and Clarkes don't like it.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,464
    Pulpstar said:

    They voted against any and all amendments for a final say in parliament ffsake. That doesn't just apply to for if the Soubrys and Clarkes don't like it.
    Leavers are hypocrites?

    Say it ain't so.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    It's my new favourite anagram of all time - World War One is = win lose or draw

    I loved my old colleague's - Diane Blackman = animal backend, and our other colleague Barbara Moulds = a Labrador's bum.

    But I still can't decide on my favourite political one so far.,

    Is it -

    Scottish National Party = I train total psychophants

    Edward Miliband = weird amid bland

    Or

    David Cameron- random advice
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,792
    If Trump and Rees-Mogg were Russian spies...how would their actions differ from what they are doing now?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    edited July 2018
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1013532550634049536

    Later in that thread he says France is waiting in the wings. Are they significantly upping their defence spending?

    Edit: Yes, an additional £260bn over five years.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,792
    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited July 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    They voted against any and all amendments for a final say in parliament ffsake. That doesn't just apply to for if the Soubrys and Clarkes don't like it.
    Leavers are hypocrites?

    Say it ain't so.
    Well I think both wings of the party have behaved appallingly at times. Clarke and Soubry in principle risking Corbyn (Say if everyone had voted the same way as them the Gov't would have fallen) to make points over Brexit are no better.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    I've skimmed through comments and don't think anyone got the clues I posted earlier so I'm going to post them again, follow by solutions

    If French roll over he may be blamed (6)
    Does that start with si? Or is?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,339
    CSU/Seehofer update: apparently (source: Berliner Zeitung) the CSU is minded to accept the EU migration package, but Seehofer disagrees. They are trying to persuade him not to go.

    https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/politik/parteikreise-horst-seehofer-will-als-csu-chef-und-innenminister-zuruecktreten-30713604
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1013532550634049536

    Later in that thread he says France is waiting in the wings. Are they significantly upping their defence spending?

    Edit: Yes, an additional £260bn over five years.
    France spending their Brexit dividend already.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    Blackmail.

    Trump will not be President forever, you know.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Tipsy

    You're obviously good at these! Did you like the clues?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,339
    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    In order to fight/defend against whom?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    surby said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    Blackmail.

    Trump will not be President forever, you know.
    The GOP is his party though. And someone like Trump could be elected again.

    I don’t think us being forced to face up to the fact that the whole special relationship thing is a delusion is a particularly bad thing though.
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    Scott_P said:
    That leaves things just as confusing as they were. Will the new CSU leader stick with the CDU or not?
    German Twitter is interpreting it as a personal resignation because his party wouldn't back a breach with the CDU, but obviously that's not the only possibility. The coalition does have a majority without the CSU, so could soldier on whiule the CSU fights the AfD in the autumn State elections.
    Yes, he was found out. I saw a poll somewhere that Merkel was more popular than him in Bavaria!
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Theresa May must keep her Brexit customs union promise or risk being overthrown by Tory MPs.

    At Chequers, the Prime Minister must stick to her "no deal is better than a bad deal" mantra, or risk splitting the Conservative Party like Sir Robert Peel


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/01/history-bodes-tory-prime-minister-defies-party-theresa-may/

    The suicide option is on.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    In order to fight/defend against whom?
    Indeed. The only possible reason I can see for keeping our nukes & continuing to spend so much on defence is soft diplomatic power/capital. One of the issues with Brexit and the manner in which we've carried it out is we've spent quite a bit of our soft capital - so our nukes & levels of defence spend unfortunately need to stay a while longer for that reason.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Tom. Tugendhat = mutated thong.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    It's my new favourite anagram of all time - World War One is = win lose or draw

    I loved my old colleague's - Diane Blackman = animal backend, and our other colleague Barbara Moulds = a Labrador's bum.

    But I still can't decide on my favourite political one so far.,

    Is it -

    Scottish National Party = I train total psychophants

    Edward Miliband = weird amid bland

    Or

    David Cameron- random advice

    Political betting = In glib toilet pact
    The Screaming Eagles = Gatecrashing melees
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,089

    surby said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    Blackmail.

    Trump will not be President forever, you know.
    The GOP is his party though. And someone like Trump could be elected again.

    I don’t think us being forced to face up to the fact that the whole special relationship thing is a delusion is a particularly bad thing though.
    The so-called special relationship amounts to little more than British money and lives being wasted so that British politicians and diplomats can posture more about the world.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    In order to fight/defend against whom?
    Defend Ukraine against Russia. And the rest of eastern Europe. Whatever preference there was for russia in Crimea they can't just steal the place.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,339
    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    That leaves things just as confusing as they were. Will the new CSU leader stick with the CDU or not?
    German Twitter is interpreting it as a personal resignation because his party wouldn't back a breach with the CDU, but obviously that's not the only possibility. The coalition does have a majority without the CSU, so could soldier on whiule the CSU fights the AfD in the autumn State elections.
    Yes, he was found out. I saw a poll somewhere that Merkel was more popular than him in Bavaria!
    A Bavarian paper says Merkel returned from the Summit looking notably confident, but Seehofer went to see her and came back complaining of an "ineffective" meeting. There are also doubts about her health. It's a nasty position for the CSU - they don't want to break the coalition, nor to give too much ground to the AfD before the local elections. But Seehofer seems to have gone all-in on the issue and left them up a creek.

    https://www.abendzeitung-muenchen.de/inhalt.csu-auf-anti-merkel-kurs-horst-seehofer-geruechte-um-ruecktritt.e44ccff5-712b-4a31-9682-922ff8827fa4.html
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    surby said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    Blackmail.

    Trump will not be President forever, you know.
    The GOP is his party though. And someone like Trump could be elected again.

    I don’t think us being forced to face up to the fact that the whole special relationship thing is a delusion is a particularly bad thing though.
    It's a delusion and a source of toe curling embarrassment. I would love to see a manifesto commitment to abolish it by statute.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,792

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    In order to fight/defend against whom?
    There is rarely a need to worry about a shortage of enemies. One will always be provided.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    But, but, but ... Churchill bust
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951

    It's my new favourite anagram of all time - World War One is = win lose or draw

    I loved my old colleague's - Diane Blackman = animal backend, and our other colleague Barbara Moulds = a Labrador's bum.

    But I still can't decide on my favourite political one so far.,

    Is it -

    Scottish National Party = I train total psychophants

    Edward Miliband = weird amid bland

    Or

    David Cameron- random advice

    Nah. The best politicsl anagram of all time was Virginia Bottomley

    I'm an evil Tory bigot
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:

    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1013532550634049536

    Later in that thread he says France is waiting in the wings. Are they significantly upping their defence spending?

    Edit: Yes, an additional £260bn over five years.
    France spending their Brexit dividend already.
    I read today that Macron is making every single French primary schoolchild learn - and sing - the Marseillaise.

    He's very clever. A mix of right and left - and unashamedly patriotic.

    He could be a kind of Clintonesque Reagan for France. If only we had someone as deft and smart in British politics. We are led by morons and liars, Remainers and Leavers alike.
    He reminds me a lot of Blair.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    If that’s the case do you think the U.K. Government should have foreseen this problem would arise and should have had a solution to it before triggering Article 50?

    No. Considering the Irish were working with us to avoid problems it seems reasonable to think they would continue to do so.

    I do think once the Irish dug their heels in and cut off co-operation we should have done the same until they came back to the table. We should at that point have begun preparing in earnest for no deal, which would almost certainly have meant that rational co-operation would have resumed.

    Instead we've portrayed ourselves as so weak we may as well say to the EU and the Taoiseach "what do you want us to sign?" Which of course is what some here want.
    All Ireland did was call time on the nonsense being peddled by DExEU and the Legatum institute about drones, Zeppelins and blockchain. Kenny would have done the same.
    Kenny did not so the same.

    Our position should have been we want free trade and will cooperate to facilitate it but if you refuse to cooperate our fall back is WTO.
    Only because Kenny left office, but there is a very solid consensus in Irish politics about this.

    If you meant the first part in good faith you'd have no problem signing up to the backstop because it would be superseded by your super-duper trade agreement.
    The UK has been trying to get the EU to talk about a trade agreement for two years so far...
    Until the UK knows where its customs borders are there's nothing to talk about.
    Why would the UK’s borders not be around the UK?
    I think that's a question you should address to Mrs May. I think we'd do much better staying in. But if we are leaving it seems completely bonkers to have a part of the UK following a different regulatory regime to the rest of it.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I have been saying this for some time: defence needs more money, not less.
    In order to fight/defend against whom?
    The French. Labour really ought to be making more of the Tories' decimation of the armed forces. Since Labour left office, the Conservatives have axed 20,000 soldiers -- one fifth of the army, with similar cuts to airmen and sailors. CCHQ likes to use the nuclear question to attack Labour but the scale of cuts has been so great that most voters, especially Conservative voters, will be shocked. And that's just personnel: ships and planes have also vanished,

    Remember the moment in GE2017 when Corbyn challenged May over police cuts? As Karl Rove advised George Bush: attack your opponent's perceived strengths.
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