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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row
NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons – facing down the (a?) customs union rebels… rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today
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It is true they appear to have both been dismissed by the EU, but to what *extent* we do not know.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/999325405940256774
In order to expedite the free flow of goods.
https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/999308653894230022?s=21
The immediate "bill" is basically £20bn, which we'd have had to pay anyway had we stayed.
Like the appeasers, a book entitled 'The Guilty Men' will be written about prominent Leavers.
Like Iraq, Leave focussed on winning the war but forgot all about winning the peace.
From memory, the smarter sections of PB at least was well informed enough to understand that Brexit would take at least a decade, and that EEA was the only decent avenue to “full Brexit”.
We also knew that the timing of A50 was one of only two real negotiating levers (the other being money).
The Government has generally done better than expected in Commons votes on Brexit business. The rebels tend to fall into line, and they're helped by some Labour MP's.
I don't think Theresa May wants any sort of Laevinic defeat. First, he's taking Faisal Islam too much at his word - I'd trust the calculations of someone like James Forsyth far more on this, who has a far more accurate record - and I think May wants to win support for her amendment party-wide, and not use a defeat to browbeat her eurosceptics, which is something I suspect the author would also enjoy and is influencing his post.
May wants to look like a leader, and she likes to win. She will want to find a form of words on which she can win a vote.
So, I expect a fudge and an amendment with something for everyone.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5762061/Speaker-John-Bercow-reported-police-bullying-allegations.html
It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.
Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?
It only means they don't win anyone over.
In practice to date on the Brexit negotiations, that has meant caving in to the EU in time at each point, as that example demonstrates. '
But doesn't the £40bn include £20bn for fees during the two year transition period ?
Whatever the case its certainly not the £60bn minimum that the EU were talking about and PB Remainers were saying would be cheap at twice the price.
What a weasel-word.
Which would have been pretty impressive, in all honesty, but he is a quick and smart guy.
Edit: and it's less the working that goes into the figures, it's the assumptions that feed into the model. Far too many people think it's the former that's important, which is basically a case of basic modelling competence, whereas it's actually the latter that matters.
But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.
And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.
The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.
Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.
A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126
Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).
Indeed
This can apply to any sides of any financial discussions.
If it was that easy, you think it would have been sorted ages ago.
The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year. The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.
So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.
[That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.
You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.
So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/23/pmqs-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-gove-ministers-accused-of-putting-country-in-jeopardy-through-cabinet-infighting-politics-live?page=with:block-5b058515e4b0a1f834771793#block-5b058515e4b0a1f834771793
16:05 entry.
Goodnight.
Penelopising is a wonderful word, by the way.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/obamas-legacy-has-already-been-destroyed.html
Not in tariffs, but in admin fees alone.
That’s why the numbers are clearly bollocks, they are an order of magnitude (or two) out.
Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
Iraq, expenses, EU referendum, the accumulation of spin now means the governed no longer trust the governing and this will only get worse until truth comes back into the equation.
Kiev looks fantastic by the way, I travelled back yesterday through the city and there’s a genuinely warm welcome awaiting the fans - the city, and country, see this as their biggest event since Euro 2012.
I think only Monaco has more expensive hotels this weekend though!
I said to a few fellow fans that I've had some unpleasant experiences in Eastern Europe because of my skin colour, I've already had 30 offers from strangers willing to be my bodyguards for the weekend.
Or maybe it’s a figure half plucked out of the air that’s pretty much bollocks, or being charitable bloody hard to estimate how it would pan out in fact in a new environment (maybe people would combine shipments for a start?). More project fear. More use of “might” or “could”. I might run off with the newly minted Duchess of Sussex tonight, I might land on Mars next Thursday, I might yodel in Romansch from Cardiff castle battlements wearing a toga. Or not.
With the added bonus of Laevinic and penelopise.
As others have said it’s rather worrying that the head of HMRC can’t do a basic sense check on his numbers before delivering them to a HoC Committee.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ex-mayor-of-ipswich-inga-lockington-denied-citizenship-after-almost-40-years-in-uk
But I have a bet with a fellow Tory that Ken Clarke will never vote to bring down the government (and risk making Corbyn PM) over the customs union but JRM will.
if a civil servant needs 3 hours to process a form they need their arse kicked. Most of it will be done on line by the importer or exporter and sent to HMRC where nobody will look at it in any detail.
Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.
I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.
Though if Istanbul and Athens are any guide, Liverpool fans will acquire those tickets.
Have a great trip, you lucky b******!
Two initial things I'd say to that: firstly, the whole point of MaxFac is to make customs declarations simple, slick, efficient and as automated as possible, so I wouldn't (basically) split the difference between two independent reports that have benchmarked other countries. Second, I don't see that filling out the same information twice, on the EU side, would double the cost, because the two forms should be aligned and all the info already gathered, otherwise it wouldn't be MaxFac. Third, I'd expect the ROO questions to be included within the customs declaration, so one has to be careful of double counting here.
Cheese from Cheddar is a bit of a silly one. Dairy produce has to be fresh, and is rarely merged with other cheeses from around the world, so checking it's 100% certified/declared cheddar should be fairly easy, and businesses could register for that certification which could then be EU recognised. Maybe there'd be an annual registration cost.
I'd put costs at something like £5-£15 per declaration for MaxFac, including ROO questions but more costly for the more complex ones, and about 25% extra on top for the "other side" (be it EU or UK) to tally, and about £1-£2bn per year to HMG to run the customs system.
So, splitting the difference, I get £3.5bn-£4.5bn per year.
They are political choices we have taken in order to have greater control in our parliament here (as some might say) and less influence in the EU (as others might say).
But they are tangible and meaningful either which way.
https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/999368497133178892?s=21
Overly verbose IMHO at 1153 words.. A little more precis would be advantageous.
The trouble with Ivan Rogers is that Cameron listened to him on what the EU would "always refuse" and would be "impossible" forever, and so massively constrained his renegotiation.
On the other hand, it’s the first time a thread of mine has been retweeted by the official account of a political party.
Which other Party might support the Tories in repealing FTPA? Not the DUP. They would be highly fortunate to hit the sweet spot again in any new poll. LD's are skint. SNP. Doubt it, given volatility in Scotland. They are still the largest Party, and could not guarantee remaining so.
She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
I'd offer - 'Imagine opportunity arriving, every day, forever'. Now apart from in the context of responding to your post I'd have to take myself off and get shot should I say such a thing.
Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LDs.
https://twitter.com/stjohnbaptiste/status/999347104270168077
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Liam Fox: EU trade deal after Brexit should be 'easiest in history' to get
International trade secretary tells Today programme the government is not making contingency plans for leaving without deal
I suspect not. They will send reports to the Treasury which will be circulated to the relevant committee members and/or full Cabinet.
As always with these statements ut’s Someone sh1t stirring
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.
Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LD's.
Dixiedean:
Needs to be factored in though when considering an Autumn election odds. It is not entirely within Mrs May's gift. At least not straightforward. The 2017 election was called with an extra 2 weeks' notice in case Labour opposed it, to allow for a repeal of FTPA. And that was when there was a Conservative majority to do it.