I agree that May might have trouble summoning a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament if Labour want to take a "it's your mess, you stay and fix it" attitude, but she can always call and whip a vote of no confidence against herself. That would require Corbyn being offered the opportunity of forming a government of course.
People on here do talk a pile of horse dung sometimes, totally devoid of common sense. "You MUST vote Conservative to keep that dangerous terrorist sympathising Commie Corbyn out of government...though yes we did ourselves give him the opportunity of forming a government." And we are so convinced of our own competence that I whipped my MPs to support a vote of no confidence in their own government. Oh yes that sounds the perfect route to a landslide Tory victory.
No one is claiming it leads to a landslide Tory victory. We are saying TM may have decided it is the only way to get out of what is an impossible situation.
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
Not preparing for no deal is as irresponsible as Osborne failing to prepare for a Leave result prior to the vote, IMHO.
I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.
Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LD's.
Dixiedean:
Needs to be factored in though when considering an Autumn election odds. It is not entirely within Mrs May's gift. At least not straightforward. The 2017 election was called with an extra 2 weeks' notice in case Labour opposed it, to allow for a repeal of FTPA. And that was when there was a Conservative majority to do it.
Jeremy Corbyn would probably insist on the opportunity to form a government of his own. Why wouldn’t he?
And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.
It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.
Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?
It only means they don't win anyone over.
He provided the workings for his figures.
The workings consisted of making up a number that might sound credible on the face of it (£32 per transaction) then multiplying up. But once you get to 1% of GDP as a transaction fee for the free movement of goods, it should be clear that either your original number was wrong and/or your assumption of multiplying up was wrong. If the fee really was that large then transactions below a certain size wouldn't happen at all.
What will be the case is that the £32 will include a lot of fixed costs that will be spread across a wider base so the incremental cost of the next clearance is marginal
I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.
Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LD's.
Dixiedean:
Needs to be factored in though when considering an Autumn election odds. It is not entirely within Mrs May's gift. At least not straightforward. The 2017 election was called with an extra 2 weeks' notice in case Labour opposed it, to allow for a repeal of FTPA. And that was when there was a Conservative majority to do it.
That is very true. I guess one way to look at is on what grounds could Corbyn plausibly deny the right to call for an election? He has said the Govt does not know what it is doing, He has said Labour is ready for power. His supporters believe there is a groundswell of support. And, if you are a Remain Labour MP, winning a victory now would allow you to push more for your version of Brexit. I just don't see how he could plausibly stand up and say no to an election. I don't think it is in his, or Milne's character, either.
On the point of he could form a minority Govt, his "charm" is persuading people his is a new kind of politics. He starts governing, the likely scenario is he either frightens large chunks of the electorate with what he does or he disappoints his supporters./
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
Not preparing for no deal is as irresponsible as Osborne failing to prepare for a Leave result prior to the vote, IMHO.
Was George Osborne supposed to prepare for racist insular Brexit or buccaneering internationalist Brexit? Since Leavers are still arguing between themselves which they want, it is scarcely fair for criticise George Osborne for letting them work it out later.
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
Not preparing for no deal is as irresponsible as Osborne failing to prepare for a Leave result prior to the vote, IMHO.
Was George Osborne supposed to prepare for racist insular Brexit or buccaneering internationalist Brexit? Since Leavers are still arguing between themselves which they want, it is scarcely fair for criticise George Osborne for letting them work it out later.
I wouldn’t have left the contingency planning until the final fortnight.
And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.
It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.
Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?
It only means they don't win anyone over.
He provided the workings for his figures.
The workings consisted of making up a number that might sound credible on the face of it (£32 per transaction) then multiplying up. But once you get to 1% of GDP as a transaction fee for the free movement of goods, it should be clear that either your original number was wrong and/or your assumption of multiplying up was wrong. If the fee really was that large then transactions below a certain size wouldn't happen at all.
What will be the case is that the £32 will include a lot of fixed costs that will be spread across a wider base so the incremental cost of the next clearance is marginal
Perhaps his costs include both opportunity cost for importers and also the continuing payments to Brussels to get them to agree?
Personally it seems a bureaucratic nonsense of no value. I suspect that at least some of the EU27 feel the same. Back to the drawing board, while the clock ticks onwards...
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
Northern Ireland is a red herring, as Cummings points out.
And he is as wrong as he always was.
Not really. The rules would need to be applied as per the WTO, but that’s it.
That’s not to say there wouldn’t be political consequences, of course. But the whole point of the exercise would have to bring political pressure to bear on the negotiations to mitigate them.
I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.
Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LD's.
Dixiedean:
Needs to be factored in though when considering an Autumn election odds. It is not entirely within Mrs May's gift. At least not straightforward. The 2017 election was called with an extra 2 weeks' notice in case Labour opposed it, to allow for a repeal of FTPA. And that was when there was a Conservative majority to do it.
Jeremy Corbyn would probably insist on the opportunity to form a government of his own. Why wouldn’t he?
Worst of all worlds. He tries to form a Govt, markets likely tank, run on the pound etc showing to many just what the markets would think of a Corbyn Govt. If he does form a Govt, then what? A manifesto he cannot get through because of lack of votes? A decision on what type of Brexit he is going for? And with what allies? The SNP? The LDs? And if he wants another election, the Conservatives can vote him down and keep him in purgatory until 2022.
JC needs a clean election victory to implement what he wants. If he is PM in a situation that he cannot control, chances are that people get disillusioned very quickly.
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
Not preparing for no deal is as irresponsible as Osborne failing to prepare for a Leave result prior to the vote, IMHO.
Was George Osborne supposed to prepare for racist insular Brexit or buccaneering internationalist Brexit? Since Leavers are still arguing between themselves which they want, it is scarcely fair for criticise George Osborne for letting them work it out later.
I wouldn’t have left the contingency planning until the final fortnight.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
If the price of the key to Number 10 is staying in the SM (at least agreeing to do so...) Jezza and John would jump at it.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Apart from the Head of HRMC in front of the DExEU committee? He does know a little about these things!
I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.
Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LD's.
Dixiedean:
Needs to be factored in though when considering an Autumn election odds. It is not entirely within Mrs May's gift. At least not straightforward. The 2017 election was called with an extra 2 weeks' notice in case Labour opposed it, to allow for a repeal of FTPA. And that was when there was a Conservative majority to do it.
Jeremy Corbyn would probably insist on the opportunity to form a government of his own. Why wouldn’t he?
Worst of all worlds. He tries to form a Govt, markets likely tank, run on the pound etc showing to many just what the markets would think of a Corbyn Govt. If he does form a Govt, then what? A manifesto he cannot get through because of lack of votes? A decision on what type of Brexit he is going for? And with what allies? The SNP? The LDs? And if he wants another election, the Conservatives can vote him down and keep him in purgatory until 2022.
JC needs a clean election victory to implement what he wants. If he is PM in a situation that he cannot control, chances are that people get disillusioned very quickly.
He administers, he doesn’t pass laws. He surprises the public with his (necessary) moderation. And, most importantly, he goes into a later election at a time of his choosing as Prime Minister.
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
Not preparing for no deal is as irresponsible as Osborne failing to prepare for a Leave result prior to the vote, IMHO.
Was George Osborne supposed to prepare for racist insular Brexit or buccaneering internationalist Brexit? Since Leavers are still arguing between themselves which they want, it is scarcely fair for criticise George Osborne for letting them work it out later.
I wouldn’t have left the contingency planning until the final fortnight.
Not an answer to the question.
I think he should have asked for a full review of all the options with fully worked contingency plans in place to allow the Government to make a political decision in the event of a Leave vote.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Apart from the Head of HRMC in front of the DExEU committee? He does know a little about these things!
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Presumably the equivalent figure would be £5bn (say 7bn CHF) as the Swiss economy is 25% the size of the UK's?
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.
Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LD's.
Dixiedean:
Needs to be factored in though when considering an Autumn election odds. It is not entirely within Mrs May's gift. At least not straightforward. The 2017 election was called with an extra 2 weeks' notice in case Labour opposed it, to allow for a repeal of FTPA. And that was when there was a Conservative majority to do it.
Jeremy Corbyn would probably insist on the opportunity to form a government of his own. Why wouldn’t he?
Worst of all worlds. He tries to form a Govt, markets likely tank, run on the pound etc showing to many just what the markets would think of a Corbyn Govt. If he does form a Govt, then what? A manifesto he cannot get through because of lack of votes? A decision on what type of Brexit he is going for? And with what allies? The SNP? The LDs? And if he wants another election, the Conservatives can vote him down and keep him in purgatory until 2022.
JC needs a clean election victory to implement what he wants. If he is PM in a situation that he cannot control, chances are that people get disillusioned very quickly.
He administers, he doesn’t pass laws. He surprises the public with his (necessary) moderation. And, most importantly, he goes into a later election at a time of his choosing as Prime Minister.
A few problems I could see with that (1) his supporters don't do moderation, they see it as a sellout. It is one thing holding fire for six months, another thing to tell people to wait until 2022 (2) the markets and the economy, on balance, would probably weaken, he will get the blame (3) I would not put JC down as a strong administrator and, bar McD and one or two others, his front bench are not good administrators either and (4) unlike the Conservatives and DUP, he is in direct competition for seats with his "allies", especially the SNP.
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
Not preparing for no deal is as irresponsible as Osborne failing to prepare for a Leave result prior to the vote, IMHO.
Was George Osborne supposed to prepare for racist insular Brexit or buccaneering internationalist Brexit? Since Leavers are still arguing between themselves which they want, it is scarcely fair for criticise George Osborne for letting them work it out later.
I wouldn’t have left the contingency planning until the final fortnight.
Not an answer to the question.
I think he should have asked for a full review of all the options with fully worked contingency plans in place to allow the Government to make a political decision in the event of a Leave vote.
Two years on, after a lot of reviewing, Leavers are no closer to agreeing among themselves what’s most important. There have been some crazy ideas floated, like Canzuk. It’s not for Remainers to help Leavers become less clueless, especially as any attempt at intervention would have been decried as a treacherous attempt to sabotage Brexit.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
0.1% sounds about right, probably between 0.05% and 0.1% of GDP if I had to stick my finger in the air.
As for the HMRC fellow, if we have such lamentable people in charge then it's no wonder we have such stupid figures being touted and absolutely no strategy.
A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.
The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.
The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.
Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.
A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”
For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
Maybe they remember what happened when Francoists last crossed the Carpathians.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Presumably the equivalent figure would be £5bn (say 7bn CHF) as the Swiss economy is 25% the size of the UK's?
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
You're talking about blending English identity into British I presume?
The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.
I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
Not preparing for no deal is as irresponsible as Osborne failing to prepare for a Leave result prior to the vote, IMHO.
Was George Osborne supposed to prepare for racist insular Brexit or buccaneering internationalist Brexit? Since Leavers are still arguing between themselves which they want, it is scarcely fair for criticise George Osborne for letting them work it out later.
I wouldn’t have left the contingency planning until the final fortnight.
You could , at least, have started on 24th June 2016.
I can no longer get excited by the rest. Brexit is Dover Beach, where ignorant armies clash by night. No one really knows anything, and the more fervently they claim to possess the truth (on both sides, including the eloquent Mr Meeks) the more, I think, they should be mistrusted.
Goodnight from the Costa Smeralda, where we toil under Italy’s dangerously eurosceptic new government.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.
The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.
The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.
Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.
A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”
For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
LOL, do what our fans are doing and start driving three days early, or get together and charter a plane. We have the world’s best fans!
Kiev looks fantastic by the way, I travelled back yesterday through the city and there’s a genuinely warm welcome awaiting the fans - the city, and country, see this as their biggest event since Euro 2012.
I think only Monaco has more expensive hotels this weekend though!
There's a certain bonhomie as well.
I said to a few fellow fans that I've had some unpleasant experiences in Eastern Europe because of my skin colour, I've already had 30 offers from strangers willing to be my bodyguards for the weekend.
I thought Eastern Europeans were more worthy of being EU members than we are?
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
Fair enough. But lots of us did, clearly.
"Identity is the crisis can't you see" as someone once sang.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
2 years on, Brexiteers are still claiming "they need us more than we need them" and "the German car makers will save us"
Delusional doesn't even come close...
Both sides need each other. The Eurozone is doing ok but not great. Even a 0.5%-1% hit on GDP from the uncertainty, tariffs etc causes problems for them and more to specific countries.
Then there are other factors. For many countries, the UK has a very handy role at mopping up excess youth labour. If I am the Italian or Spanish Government, my main concern is probably not exports, it is what happens if the UK suddenly starts tightening the work requirements for my youngsters and they head back home to an market with c. 32% (Italy) or 35% (Spain) youth employment, which has all the ingredients of political unrest.
It is perfectly possible I think that enough Tory Remainers could join Labour to vote to stay in the Customs Union (which Corbyn now effectively supports while remaining opposed to staying in the single market). With the LDs and the SNP and Plaid and Caroline Lucas also for the Customs Union and the DUP not exactly distraught if the whole UK stays in the Customs Union as opposed to just NI it will be a close run Commons vote
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
Fair enough. But lots of us did, clearly.
That's true, I grant you.
So why weren’t we doubters being convinced? Why did the EU have such low levels of popularity here compared to other countries over decades ( it’s not all the Sun!)? Why did many increasingly feel Europe was done to us, not something we were part of? Why was the EU so utterly tin eared to Cameron’s renegotiation? Why did Remain so utterly fail to paint a positive picture before 23/6/16?
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
If the price of the key to Number 10 is staying in the SM (at least agreeing to do so...) Jezza and John would jump at it.
Except it isn't as such a policy would keep free movement in place and see working class Labour Leave voters in key Midlands and Northern marginal seats abandon the party in droves
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
Fair enough. But lots of us did, clearly.
That's true, I grant you.
So why weren’t we doubters being convinced? Why did the EU have such low levels of popularity here compared to other countries over decades ( it’s not all the Sun!)? Why did many increasingly feel Europe was done to us, not something we were part of? Why was the EU so utterly tin eared to Cameron’s renegotiation? Why did Remain so utterly fail to paint a positive picture before 23/6/16?
UK politicians talking like this about the EU might have had something to do with it.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
If the price of the key to Number 10 is staying in the SM (at least agreeing to do so...) Jezza and John would jump at it.
Except it isn't as such a policy would keep free movement in place and see working class Labour Leave voters in key Midlands and Northern marginal seats abandon the party in droves
Have to admit, enjoying the Brexiteers awakening this evening.
For 2 years, they have been cheering Tezza on; Article 50, Lancaster House, General Election, Crush the Saboteurs, No deal is better than a bad Deal, Out of the Single market, out of the Customs Union.
In lockstep, all the way.
Onwards, to Victory, oh, hold on, we fucked this up.
Wait, can we go back a bit? This isn't what we expected...
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
Fair enough. But lots of us did, clearly.
That's true, I grant you.
So why weren’t we doubters being convinced? Why did the EU have such low levels of popularity here compared to other countries over decades ( it’s not all the Sun!)? Why did many increasingly feel Europe was done to us, not something we were part of? Why was the EU so utterly tin eared to Cameron’s renegotiation? Why did Remain so utterly fail to paint a positive picture before 23/6/16?
Feck knows. It is, genuinely, a complete mystery to me. On all counts.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
It was never about the money. If friction is the price of not doing Schengen FOM etc so be it.
It is perfectly possible I think that enough Tory Remainers could join Labour to vote to stay in the Customs Union (which Corbyn now effectively supports while remaining opposed to staying in the single market). With the LDs and the SNP and Plaid and Caroline Lucas also for the Customs Union and the DUP not exactly distraught if the whole UK stays in the Customs Union as opposed to just NI it will be a close run Commons vote
The DUP problem with that is they well know that, if push comes to shove, a very good chunk of Brexit support will say "fine, we don't need Northern Ireland, it has always been a hassle, let them unite with ROI and we will do their own thing". From a Brexiteers standpoint, NI Border issue solved.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Well, I know Wikipedia is not always right but here's what it says...
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
"Police chief blasts BBC over ‘wholly inaccurate’ Manchester terror attack documentary
Manchester’s police chief has described a BBC documentary aired on the anniversary of the city’s arena terror attack as “entirely misleading” and “wholly inaccurate”.
Greater Manchester Police (GMP) Chief Constable Ian Hopkins hit out at the broadcaster in a two-page open letter on Wednesday."
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Well, I know Wikipedia is not always right but here's what it says...
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
If the price of the key to Number 10 is staying in the SM (at least agreeing to do so...) Jezza and John would jump at it.
Except it isn't as such a policy would keep free movement in place and see working class Labour Leave voters in key Midlands and Northern marginal seats abandon the party in droves
Maybe, Maybe not. Lets do it and see.
No ifs or buts about it, leaving free movement in place would see a significant number of Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North fall to the Tories or even a revived UKIP and Corbyn knows it which is why while he is prepared to stay in the Customs Union he will not agree to stay in the Single Market. Not forgetting Corbyn is also ideologically opposed to the Single Market unlike the Customs Union as it will stop him pushing through the nationalisations he wants to undertake if he becomes PM
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Well, I know Wikipedia is not always right but here's what it says...
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
It is perfectly possible I think that enough Tory Remainers could join Labour to vote to stay in the Customs Union (which Corbyn now effectively supports while remaining opposed to staying in the single market). With the LDs and the SNP and Plaid and Caroline Lucas also for the Customs Union and the DUP not exactly distraught if the whole UK stays in the Customs Union as opposed to just NI it will be a close run Commons vote
The DUP problem with that is they well know that, if push comes to shove, a very good chunk of Brexit support will say "fine, we don't need Northern Ireland, it has always been a hassle, let them unite with ROI and we will do their own thing". From a Brexiteers standpoint, NI Border issue solved.
Hence why the DUP are acting uber-Brexit.
Who will say that? Barely any Tories I know for whom the Union is sacrosanct and the Customs Union is something they will shrug their shoulders about, barely any working class Leavers who only really care about ending free movement and leaving the single market, maybe the most ideological Leaver for whom leaving the Customs Union comes before anything else like Richard North and maybe Cummings but barely anyone has heard of them anyway
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Well, I know Wikipedia is not always right but here's what it says...
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
That's correct, but they aren't in the single market or the customs union.
"...in order to participate in the Union's single market..." ??
Max is right. They may participate in some aspects of the Single Market but they are not 'in' it. They are not members of the EEA and so are outside the Single Market.
Thanks. Website says our local Waitrose stock it so will give it a try.
Annoyingly, I can't find the article on the Telegraph website... the headline "Zero booze or bacon if you want to avoid cancer" is clearly misleading but I guess there's a degree of truth in there.
Petty Court politics by the sound of it. And they ask why we are leaving!
Curious. So if it works, where are the Germans going to get an extra Eurofighter from when they need 5 rather than the 4 out of their 128 that they manage to keep working?
It is perfectly possible I think that enough Tory Remainers could join Labour to vote to stay in the Customs Union (which Corbyn now effectively supports while remaining opposed to staying in the single market). With the LDs and the SNP and Plaid and Caroline Lucas also for the Customs Union and the DUP not exactly distraught if the whole UK stays in the Customs Union as opposed to just NI it will be a close run Commons vote
The DUP problem with that is they well know that, if push comes to shove, a very good chunk of Brexit support will say "fine, we don't need Northern Ireland, it has always been a hassle, let them unite with ROI and we will do their own thing". From a Brexiteers standpoint, NI Border issue solved.
Hence why the DUP are acting uber-Brexit.
Who will say that? Barely any Tories I know for whom the Union is sacrosanct and the Customs Union is something they will shrug their shoulders about, barely any working class Leavers who only really care about ending free movement and leaving the single market, maybe the most ideological Leaver for whom leaving the Customs Union comes before anything else like Richard North and maybe Cummings but barely anyone has heard of them anyway
The Irish PM has already indicated that CU alone will not be enough to abide by the Good Friday agreement, we will also need to abide by the SM as well. That means freedom of movement. Tory MPs might be happy to accept that, a lot of Leave voters will not. NI may have a special place in the heart to the Conservative Party but the vast majority (I would guess) of people have never been there, have no plans and don't have this view of Northern Ireland must be defended at all costs.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Well, I know Wikipedia is not always right but here's what it says...
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
That's correct, but they aren't in the single market or the customs union.
"...in order to participate in the Union's single market..." ??
Yes, they aren't in it though. They choose to participate in some parts and decline in some other parts and have completely refused ECJ jurisdiction. The EU has tried to foist the latter on Switzerland time and again but each time the Swiss people reject the idea of a submitting to a foreign court so the EU backs down.
As I've said before, we should fire Davis, Boris and Fox then get the Swiss to do it for us.
I doubt most UK politicians give any thought at all to what the EU will accept.
A customs union has specific meaning and rules under the WTO and will need to be notified as a customs union to that body. Single Market doesn't have any specific meaning and the EEA is A free trade agreement. Most likely the entire UK EU relationship will be called something like the "UK EU Partnership Agreement" and will notified to the WTO as a mixed FTA and customs union agreement.
Being outside the EU customs area enables us to negotiate trade agreements with third countries that will certainly be worse than the ones we already have.through the EU.
Thanks. Website says our local Waitrose stock it so will give it a try.
Sainsbury have it too. It doesn't have quite the same shelf life, but is real quality. Serrano Ham is naturally Nitrite and Nitrate free too.
Booze is a bit trickier!
Ah that's interesting - we always go for serrano over say parma because we prefer the taste and texture. I am fine on the booze front - I never drink wine with nitrites in it!
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I saw somewhere (on the Internet!) that the equivalent cost for Switzerland was 0.1% of GDP, not 1% which is what HMRC’s figures suggest.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
No it’s a country that’s been led down a path by its politicians for decades without the consent of the people to that path.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Less of the 'us' - I've never felt rubbed out or blended into something else.
Fair enough. But lots of us did, clearly.
That's true, I grant you.
So why weren’t we doubters being convinced? Why did the EU have such low levels of popularity here compared to other countries over decades ( it’s not all the Sun!)? Why did many increasingly feel Europe was done to us, not something we were part of? Why was the EU so utterly tin eared to Cameron’s renegotiation? Why did Remain so utterly fail to paint a positive picture before 23/6/16?
It's not us. It's you. As the old break up line goes
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Well, I know Wikipedia is not always right but here's what it says...
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
That's correct, but they aren't in the single market or the customs union.
"...in order to participate in the Union's single market..." ??
Yes, they aren't in it though. They choose to participate in some parts and decline in some other parts and have completely refused ECJ jurisdiction. The EU has tried to foist the latter on Switzerland time and again but each time the Swiss people reject the idea of a submitting to a foreign court so the EU backs down.
As I've said before, we should fire Davis, Boris and Fox then get the Swiss to do it for us.
Good idea - they could add that to their list of service exports.
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
If the price of the key to Number 10 is staying in the SM (at least agreeing to do so...) Jezza and John would jump at it.
Except it isn't as such a policy would keep free movement in place and see working class Labour Leave voters in key Midlands and Northern marginal seats abandon the party in droves
Maybe, Maybe not. Lets do it and see.
No ifs or buts about it, leaving free movement in place would see a significant number of Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North fall to the Tories or even a revived UKIP and Corbyn knows it which is why while he is prepared to stay in the Customs Union he will not agree to stay in the Single Market. Not forgetting Corbyn is also ideologically opposed to the Single Market unlike the Customs Union as it will stop him pushing through the nationalisations he wants to undertake if he becomes PM
Interesting. I think it will be varied in perhaps unexpected ways.
Round here they have lost Mansfield Council and Mayoralty to Independents for most of the the last 20 years. The Tories famously won the Commons' seat last year.
In Ashfield control has been like a 3 way yoyo, but Corbynistas just handed it back to Ashfield Independents (good answer for Pointless in names of political parties :-) who used to be Lib Dems by behaving like dickheads. And the MP's majority is back down to 400.
It is perfectly possible I think that enough Tory Remainers could join Labour to vote to stay in the Customs Union (which Corbyn now effectively supports while remaining opposed to staying in the single market). With the LDs and the SNP and Plaid and Caroline Lucas also for the Customs Union and the DUP not exactly distraught if the whole UK stays in the Customs Union as opposed to just NI it will be a close run Commons vote
The DUP problem with that is they well know that, if push comes to shove, a very good chunk of Brexit support will say "fine, we don't need Northern Ireland, it has always been a hassle, let them unite with ROI and we will do their own thing". From a Brexiteers standpoint, NI Border issue solved.
Hence why the DUP are acting uber-Brexit.
Who will say that? Barely any Tories I know for whom the Union is sacrosanct and the Customs Union is something they will shrug their shoulders about, barely any working class Leavers who only really care about ending free movement and leaving the single market, maybe the most ideological Leaver for whom leaving the Customs Union comes before anything else like Richard North and maybe Cummings but barely anyone has heard of them anyway
The Irish PM has already indicated that CU alone will not be enough to abide by the Good Friday agreement, we will also need to abide by the SM as well. That means freedom of movement. Tory MPs might be happy to accept that, a lot of Leave voters will not. NI may have a special place in the heart to the Conservative Party but the vast majority (I would guess) of people have never been there, have no plans and don't have this view of Northern Ireland must be defended at all costs.
No actually he has not said that, he just said he would need to align with some of the single market rules and regulations not actually remain a member of it which if we remained in the customs union would not be much of a jump. That also still means free movement could end and be replaced by work permits as the UK government intends.
The Tory Party as a whole is certainly far more committed to the Union and I would expect the majority of voters too than leaving the Customs Union so Liam Fox can get a few trade deals not necessarily any better than we have now and maybe worse after years of negotiation
Thanks. Website says our local Waitrose stock it so will give it a try.
Annoyingly, I can't find the article on the Telegraph website... the headline "Zero booze or bacon if you want to avoid cancer" is clearly misleading but I guess there's a degree of truth in there.
I wouldn't worry. It's probably some Doc or Dietician on the make, or an Academic wanting attention.
Moderation in all things, and don't regret the little bit of time you lose if you enjoyed those sarnies.
Have a gin and look at the printed copy in the morning.
Thanks. Website says our local Waitrose stock it so will give it a try.
Sainsbury have it too. It doesn't have quite the same shelf life, but is real quality. Serrano Ham is naturally Nitrite and Nitrate free too.
Booze is a bit trickier!
Ah that's interesting - we always go for serrano over say parma because we prefer the taste and texture. I am fine on the booze front - I never drink wine with nitrites in it!
Oops just checked, it is Parma Ham that is Nitrite free, not Serrano. Not sure about Iberico.
The reason I know that this £20bn figure is complete nonsense is Switzerland running a reverse version of what is being proposed. If the cost of doing so was anywhere near £20bn there is no way the Swiss would continue to operate it.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
Do you know what the equivalent figure is in Switzerland, an economy much smaller than that of the UK ? Also, they always had the infrastructure as they were never part of the EU.
Infrastructure is a capital cost, not an recurring cost. I'll have to see if the figure is available, but from what I can tell 0.05% of GDP is spent on customs facilitation and a further 0.05% on the EU collecting and keeping Swiss tariffs if the goods enter via an EU port.
Of course they are effectively in the single market, allow free movement, signed up to Schengen, etc... Maybe if we did those things we could keep costs to a minimum?
They aren't in the single market and they aren't in any kind of customs union with the EU.
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Well, I know Wikipedia is not always right but here's what it says...
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
That's correct, but they aren't in the single market or the customs union.
"...in order to participate in the Union's single market..." ??
Max is right. They may participate in some aspects of the Single Market but they are not 'in' it. They are not members of the EEA and so are outside the Single Market.
Ok, thanks. I have to confess I am struggling to understand the difference between 'participating in the single market' and 'being in the single market'.
Comments
On the point of he could form a minority Govt, his "charm" is persuading people his is a new kind of politics. He starts governing, the likely scenario is he either frightens large chunks of the electorate with what he does or he disappoints his supporters./
Personally it seems a bureaucratic nonsense of no value. I suspect that at least some of the EU27 feel the same. Back to the drawing board, while the clock ticks onwards...
May has deferred for as long as possible, and the Cabinet has not been able to form a consensus on this. Thus, she needs Parliament to vote one way or another. Probably she is “relaxed” about the outcome, she can live in, our out, of a customs union.
It does increasingly feels like the ERG - or perhaps Johnson - are preparing for a challenge, though.
And, come the parliamentary vote, if Corbyn smells blood, surely he’d take the opportunity to depose May, even if it means allowing a free vote on the single market? Deposing May is his quickest route to a Labour government.
That’s not to say there wouldn’t be political consequences, of course. But the whole point of the exercise would have to bring political pressure to bear on the negotiations to mitigate them.
JC needs a clean election victory to implement what he wants. If he is PM in a situation that he cannot control, chances are that people get disillusioned very quickly.
Absolutely mental that anyone could believe such nonsense.
I find it crazy though that we are even having this discussion today. No one in government, in the media, or in academia seems to have the vaguest clue what we are trying to do, what it will cost, how long it will take, and who the winners and losers will be.
Maybe it’s because no country has ever left a customs union before, as Ivan Rogers reminds us today. But it’s not good enough.
This country is deeply decadent.
2 years on, Brexiteers are still claiming "they need us more than we need them" and "the German car makers will save us"
Delusional doesn't even come close...
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/999344455470731264
If any Tory brings down the Government over Brexit and makes Corbyn PM then I'm going to go all Liam Neeson in Taken on your arses.
These are the people you will put in power.
As for the HMRC fellow, if we have such lamentable people in charge then it's no wonder we have such stupid figures being touted and absolutely no strategy.
He is too disorganised to do real damage, and he will want plenty of time on his allotment. It is growing and watering season.
Fallout is to be expected. I don’t care. Sod ‘em, I’m certainly not worried about yet another set of made up apocalyptic figures that we can all have a good laugh at.
Maybe it’ll teach future politicians not to be so bloody cavalier about slowly rubbing us out and blending us into something else without, you know, actually asking us if we agreed.
Then there are other factors. For many countries, the UK has a very handy role at mopping up excess youth labour. If I am the Italian or Spanish Government, my main concern is probably not exports, it is what happens if the UK suddenly starts tightening the work requirements for my youngsters and they head back home to an market with c. 32% (Italy) or 35% (Spain) youth employment, which has all the ingredients of political unrest.
Personally, I'm more worried by the "Zero booze or bacon if you want to avoid cancer" headline below.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/newsid_1328000/1328366.stm
"We may not have studied Hitler's Mein Kampf in time but, by heaven, there is no excuse for us not studying the Schroeder plan now."
"You may be sure that the currency section of Dr Goebbels' Guide to Falsehood is already well thumbed by the Labour spin doctors."
For 2 years, they have been cheering Tezza on; Article 50, Lancaster House, General Election, Crush the Saboteurs, No deal is better than a bad Deal, Out of the Single market, out of the Customs Union.
In lockstep, all the way.
Onwards, to Victory, oh, hold on, we fucked this up.
Wait, can we go back a bit? This isn't what we expected...
The only reason Switzerland is in Schengen is because it's completely impractical not to be, but the UK and Ireland are in the CTA which enables smooth travel across the border without needing any ID.
Hence why the DUP are acting uber-Brexit.
http://www.finnebrogue.com/naked/
The relations between Switzerland and the European Union (EU) are framed by a series of bilateral treaties whereby the Swiss Confederation has adopted various provisions of European Union law in order to participate in the Union's single market, without joining as a member state.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland–European_Union_relations
"Police chief blasts BBC over ‘wholly inaccurate’ Manchester terror attack documentary
Manchester’s police chief has described a BBC documentary aired on the anniversary of the city’s arena terror attack as “entirely misleading” and “wholly inaccurate”.
Greater Manchester Police (GMP) Chief Constable Ian Hopkins hit out at the broadcaster in a two-page open letter on Wednesday."
http://www.itv.com/news/2018-05-23/police-chief-blasts-bbc-over-wholly-inaccurate-documentary/
Annoyingly, I can't find the article on the Telegraph website... the headline "Zero booze or bacon if you want to avoid cancer" is clearly misleading but I guess there's a degree of truth in there.
Curious. So if it works, where are the Germans going to get an extra Eurofighter from when they need 5 rather than the 4 out of their 128 that they manage to keep working?
As I've said before, we should fire Davis, Boris and Fox then get the Swiss to do it for us.
A customs union has specific meaning and rules under the WTO and will need to be notified as a customs union to that body. Single Market doesn't have any specific meaning and the EEA is A free trade agreement. Most likely the entire UK EU relationship will be called something like the "UK EU Partnership Agreement" and will notified to the WTO as a mixed FTA and customs union agreement.
Being outside the EU customs area enables us to negotiate trade agreements with third countries that will certainly be worse than the ones we already have.through the EU.
Booze is a bit trickier!
A useful term to know.
Round here they have lost Mansfield Council and Mayoralty to Independents for most of the the last 20 years. The Tories famously won the Commons' seat last year.
In Ashfield control has been like a 3 way yoyo, but Corbynistas just handed it back to Ashfield Independents (good answer for Pointless in names of political parties :-) who used to be Lib Dems by behaving like dickheads. And the MP's majority is back down to 400.
Straws in the wind? Elsewhere?
The Tory Party as a whole is certainly far more committed to the Union and I would expect the majority of voters too than leaving the Customs Union so Liam Fox can get a few trade deals not necessarily any better than we have now and maybe worse after years of negotiation
Moderation in all things, and don't regret the little bit of time you lose if you enjoyed those sarnies.
Have a gin and look at the printed copy in the morning.