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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will “Angie’s” third term be with the reds or the yellows?

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    edited September 2013
    They've finally activated the all Germany page now, rendering my spreadsheet redundant. But it wasn't available half an hour ago which is why I started doing it:

    http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    We may need more decimal points on the FDP percentage ;-)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Is your nearest Kebab shop "local", even if the staff aren't British?

    You mean Ed's "local" policy applies to other nationalities? Well done, you have figured out what Ed didn't
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    The AfD's 5%, and therefore the overall result, seemingly on something a knife edge!
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Presumably the seats declared so far are skewed heavily in CDU/CSU's favour?

    Currently it's CDU/CSU 44.6, SPD/DL/Green 39.4
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited September 2013
    Scott_P said:

    He never mentions Britain or British at all

    The line was "local"

    Do you really think he was describing Romanians as local?

    "The Labour leader said his Government would introduce an Immigration Bill in its first year to get employers to hire local workers "
    tim said:

    Scott_P said:

    About 37 minutes into Marr, Miliband says that the apprentice scheme will be "about training up our people".

    Who are "our people"?

    He meant British people, until it was pointed at that would be illegal. The new line is "he meant anyone in the EU, but that's OK cos they won't come"

    It's desperate stuff
    To be honest, I don't think he necessarily did. He never mentions Britain or British at all, and does mention (of course) "hard working families". By this I assume he means people paying taxes (and their children) which, given the EU law, could include any familes that chose to come here from another EU country. So long as the parents have jobs (else they wouldn't be hard working).

    What I object to is EU nationals coming here without jobs in order to, and being able to, claim from our benefit system. Trouble is, we're not allowed to discriminate, once they're here, against them. We are though allowed to discriminate against them at the border if they don't have sufficient wealth to be able to survive without a job, and I can't work out why the hell we don't do that.

    The first part of your post is correct, and sensible.
    As a British family can move to Munich so a Polish family can move from Kracow, it's a single market.

    But given that it's a single market with free movement of Labour, why would you want to erect borders against British people moving around Europe, would you stop someone moving from New Orleans to New York?
    No, it's a single market, it's what three different Tory PM's have supported.

    I've posted a link on here before (which I can't be bothered to find now) to the EU website stating exactly what I said I would prefer - ie that countries are allowed to stop people who are suspected of coming to the country without a job and without funds to support themselves.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tory Treasury ‏@ToryTreasury 4m

    Hearing tonight Balls is rattled by exposure of Lab's £27.9bn of unfunded spending commitments - another announcement that's unlawful on way

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    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so.

    If it wasn't Germany, I'd say what the old East Germany needs is a party like the SNP. What they don't need is anything resembling 'Scottish' Labour.

    'The demography won’t change: an aging, and ailing, population coupled with a declining birth rate. Nor will the geography: peripheral to the United Kingdom, never mind Europe, never mind the world. Or the economics: that we will be, forever, in the shadow of our much larger neighbour. Or even the reality that our major natural resource, oil, is declining both in quantity and fashion. '

    http://tinyurl.com/nsgg96m
    So we could have Scotland twinned with East Germany ? I wouldn't say that would do much for Scotland divvie.
    You're pre-empting separation, I was thinking more of a party effective at pressuring Berlin while making a fist of running the country/region/Länder. I doot Germany is ready for any kind of mainstream 'national' party for a few decades though.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Sunderland have "parted company" with boss Paolo Di Canio, the club confirms in a statement on their website
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Andy_JS said:

    They've finally activated the all Germany page now, rendering my spreadsheet redundant. But it wasn't available half an hour ago which is why I started doing it:

    http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html

    figures seem way off the predictions...
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    Careful, Grandiose - surely the, ahem, "old" east Germany was Pomerania, Silesia and East Prussia (and Posen too, if you like)!

    Silesia is to Prussia as Kashmir is to India: A foreign territory held against the will of the people. You should know your history Dr P...!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    Presumably the seats declared so far are skewed heavily in CDU/CSU's favour?

    Currently it's CDU/CSU 44.6, SPD/DL/Green 39.4

    Ignore seats and first votes. They have no bearing on the overall result...
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sunderland have "parted company" with boss Paolo Di Canio, the club confirms in a statement on their website


    Fascists out !
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    I've posted a link on here before (which I can't be bothered to find now) to the EU website stating exactly what I said I would prefer - ie that countries are allowed to stop people who are suspected of coming to the country without a job and without funds to support themselves.

    Under Ed's plan people coming here for one of his Apprenticeships would be guaranteed a job
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    RodCrosby said:

    Ignore seats and first votes. They have no bearing on the overall result...

    I did!

    The numbers I posted were the 2nd votes!!!!!
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sunderland have "parted company" with boss Paolo Di Canio, the club confirms in a statement on their website

    Anyone had di canio for first prem boss out ;-)

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @Alanbrooke

    It's less me misunderstanding as you not knowing what you're talking about. ;-)

    As as for champagne a quisling's quaff (I expected nothing more from you Pole ) if we pass them I shall be drinking

    http://nyetimber.com/


    A good wine and very well designed website, Mr. Brooke.

    I know it as the vineyard is only a few miles away from my brother's house which also nestles at the foot of the South Downs. It is certainly better than most champagnes but probably not quite up there with the finest grande marque vintages.

    Still it would be suitable drink to quaff when we overtake France in GDP.

    My brother became less of fan though when they would only offer a 10% discount on supplies for his village's charity fête in honour of the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.

    He claims the nearby Upperton sparkling wines from Tillington village are better, but I suspect this may be due to the latter's superior generosity to West Sussex charitable causes.

    So take your pick: http://www.uppertonvineyards.co.uk/public_html/
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    It's now 44.3 / 39.9
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ignore seats and first votes. They have no bearing on the overall result...

    I did!

    The numbers I posted were the 2nd votes!!!!!
    OK, "seats" confused me. I'd still ignore those figures. As you say, they may not be representative. I'm sure the forecasters know better...
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    With 60% of seats declared, SPD/DL/G will need to win the rest by approx 7% for an overall tie.
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    Careful, Grandiose - surely the, ahem, "old" east Germany was Pomerania, Silesia and East Prussia (and Posen too, if you like)!

    Silesia is to Prussia as Kashmir is to India: A foreign territory held against the will of the people. You should know your history Dr P...!
    Silesia is to south and west of East Prussia! You should know your geography, Fluffy!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    FDP up to 4.8%, AfD down to 4.8% with ZDF.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Sunderland have "parted company" with boss Paolo Di Canio, the club confirms in a statement on their website

    Has he avoided Mussolini's fate?
    He nearly got it when he faced the sunderland fans at the end of the match against west brom ;-)

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so.

    If it wasn't Germany, I'd say what the old East Germany needs is a party like the SNP. What they don't need is anything resembling 'Scottish' Labour.

    'The demography won’t change: an aging, and ailing, population coupled with a declining birth rate. Nor will the geography: peripheral to the United Kingdom, never mind Europe, never mind the world. Or the economics: that we will be, forever, in the shadow of our much larger neighbour. Or even the reality that our major natural resource, oil, is declining both in quantity and fashion. '

    http://tinyurl.com/nsgg96m
    So we could have Scotland twinned with East Germany ? I wouldn't say that would do much for Scotland divvie.
    You're pre-empting separation, I was thinking more of a party effective at pressuring Berlin while making a fist of running the country/region/Länder. I doot Germany is ready for any kind of mainstream 'national' party for a few decades though.
    The problem is the national capital sits right in the middle of the old DDR so it's not that the distance problem to the seat of power is that great. It's just that the East hasn't recovered it;s industrial base and the Wessis have been pretty good at stitching the place up by imposing solutions that don't work. In any case given Ossis have the two top jobs in Merkel and Gauck it's hard to think of how much more influence they could have.
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Whose stupid idea was it that the CDU colour would be black? Didn't they realise it looks silly on maps?
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    Berlin and DDR are mainly in the areas still to be reported
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tim said:

    Scott_P said:


    I've posted a link on here before (which I can't be bothered to find now) to the EU website stating exactly what I said I would prefer - ie that countries are allowed to stop people who are suspected of coming to the country without a job and without funds to support themselves.

    Under Ed's plan people coming here for one of his Apprenticeships would be guaranteed a job
    Any EU citizen can take one of the apprenticeships currently promoted by the govt.

    How many do, come on Scotty, we're waiting.
    The fact this policy relies on a contingent and not a necessary factor demonstrates just how odd a way of approaching either immigration or apprenticeships it is.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    I'll carry on updating the spreadsheet now I've started it.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    Most of the big cities haven't reported yet and I guess they'll be bad for both FDP and AfD.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: At last, we see Ed in his true colours, waving the red flag http://t.co/SydkRhP2EN
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Sunderland have "parted company" with boss Paolo Di Canio, the club confirms in a statement on their website

    Has he avoided Mussolini's fate?
    Just about,watch this ;-)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/24190207

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    Andy_JS said:

    I'll carry on updating the spreadsheet now I've started it.

    Thanks Andy, brilliant stuff!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    AveryLP said:

    @Alanbrooke

    It's less me misunderstanding as you not knowing what you're talking about. ;-)

    As as for champagne a quisling's quaff (I expected nothing more from you Pole ) if we pass them I shall be drinking

    http://nyetimber.com/


    A good wine and very well designed website, Mr. Brooke.

    I know it as the vineyard is only a few miles away from my brother's house which also nestles at the foot of the South Downs. It is certainly better than most champagnes but probably not quite up there with the finest grande marque vintages.

    Still it would be suitable drink to quaff when we overtake France in GDP.

    My brother became less of fan though when they would only offer a 10% discount on supplies for his village's charity fête in honour of the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.

    He claims the nearby Upperton sparkling wines from Tillington village are better, but I suspect this may be due to the latter's superior generosity to West Sussex charitable causes.

    So take your pick: http://www.uppertonvineyards.co.uk/public_html/

    Ah well Mr pole I shall keep an eye out for that, I did try Ridgeview, but still reckoned Nyetimber has the edge.

    http://www.ridgeview.co.uk/

    Still in wine terms these are early days for English fizz so I reckon your quality gap may not have much longer to go. In any case I noticed Nyetimber list one of their distributors as

    http://www.averys.com/ :-)
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    After 195/299 counted:

    44.1 / 40.1

    FDP 4.96
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    In Bayern the only constituency outstanding is Fürth, and in Thüringen we're just waiting for Gera - Jena - Saale-Holzland-Kreis.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    At 22.40, looks fairly settled at 301:305 - no overall majority, and not much chance for AfD or FDP, both of whom are ending up at 4.8%.
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    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so.

    If it wasn't Germany, I'd say what the old East Germany needs is a party like the SNP. What they don't need is anything resembling 'Scottish' Labour.

    'The demography won’t change: an aging, and ailing, population coupled with a declining birth rate. Nor will the geography: peripheral to the United Kingdom, never mind Europe, never mind the world. Or the economics: that we will be, forever, in the shadow of our much larger neighbour. Or even the reality that our major natural resource, oil, is declining both in quantity and fashion. '

    http://tinyurl.com/nsgg96m
    So we could have Scotland twinned with East Germany ? I wouldn't say that would do much for Scotland divvie.
    You're pre-empting separation, I was thinking more of a party effective at pressuring Berlin while making a fist of running the country/region/Länder. I doot Germany is ready for any kind of mainstream 'national' party for a few decades though.
    The problem is the national capital sits right in the middle of the old DDR so it's not that the distance problem to the seat of power is that great. It's just that the East hasn't recovered it;s industrial base and the Wessis have been pretty good at stitching the place up by imposing solutions that don't work. In any case given Ossis have the two top jobs in Merkel and Gauck it's hard to think of how much more influence they could have.
    Distance is a state of mind. How far in miles is your bit from Westminsterland? How far down the list of strategic priorities?
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    Andy_JS said:

    I'll carry on updating the spreadsheet now I've started it.

    Thank you Magnus Andy.

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    New projections

    ARD/ZDF

    CDU 41.7/41.9
    SPD 25.6/25.7
    Linke 8.5/8.5
    Greens 8.4/8.4
    AfD 4.8/4.8
    FDP 4.7/4.8
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Andy_JS said:

    They've finally activated the all Germany page now, rendering my spreadsheet redundant. But it wasn't available half an hour ago which is why I started doing it:

    Many thanks once again Andy for the efforts you put in.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756

    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so.

    If it wasn't Germany, I'd say what the old East Germany needs is a party like the SNP. What they don't need is anything resembling 'Scottish' Labour.

    'The demography won’t change: an aging, and ailing, population coupled with a declining birth rate. Nor will the geography: peripheral to the United Kingdom, never mind Europe, never mind the world. Or the economics: that we will be, forever, in the shadow of our much larger neighbour. Or even the reality that our major natural resource, oil, is declining both in quantity and fashion. '

    http://tinyurl.com/nsgg96m
    So we could have Scotland twinned with East Germany ? I wouldn't say that would do much for Scotland divvie.
    You're pre-empting separation, I was thinking more of a party effective at pressuring Berlin while making a fist of running the country/region/Länder. I doot Germany is ready for any kind of mainstream 'national' party for a few decades though.
    The problem is the national capital sits right in the middle of the old DDR so it's not that the distance problem to the seat of power is that great. It's just that the East hasn't recovered it;s industrial base and the Wessis have been pretty good at stitching the place up by imposing solutions that don't work. In any case given Ossis have the two top jobs in Merkel and Gauck it's hard to think of how much more influence they could have.
    Distance is a state of mind. How far in miles is your bit from Westminsterland? How far down the list of strategic priorities?
    Round here we're not too bad as we have stacks of marginals, we get joyful proposals like HS2. However as you know I always feel closer to Scotland than Westminsterland :-)
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    Has Alsace-Lorraine declared yet?

    :)
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Has Alsace-Lorraine declared yet?

    :)

    LOOOOL

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Greg Ellison @GregE_IoM
    Dear Spain, Ed Miliband promises to force UK firms to offer apprenticeships to your unemployed kids. Nice one Ed! #lab13
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    tim said:

    Sunderland have "parted company" with boss Paolo Di Canio, the club confirms in a statement on their website

    Has he avoided Mussolini's fate?
    He nearly got it when he faced the sunderland fans at the end of the match against west brom ;-)

    What is this thing club chairmen have with West Brom ?
    IIRC, McCarthy got the chop from Wolves, and Vilas-Boas from Chelsea after losing to the Baggies.

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    AveryLP said:


    My brother became less of fan though when they would only offer a 10% discount on supplies for his village's charity fête in honour of the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.

    He claims the nearby Upperton sparkling wines from Tillington village are better, but I suspect this may be due to the latter's superior generosity to West Sussex charitable causes.

    So take your pick: http://www.uppertonvineyards.co.uk/public_html/

    It sounds like your brother takes after that rascal Cousin Seth.

    Is there any chance he might make an appearance at PB ?

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Staggers @TheStaggers
    Balls to announce tomorrow that the OBR will audit Labour's manifesto.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Has Alsace-Lorraine declared yet?

    :)

    Nor is Calais still a Westminster constituency...
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited September 2013
    tim said:



    Any EU citizen can take one of the apprenticeships currently promoted by the govt.

    How many do, come on Scotty, we're waiting.

    I think you've slightly missed the point, tim.

    Once Ed's quotas get onto the statute books, lots of enterprising pan-European recruitment agents will be on the case.

    'Dear Director of Human Resources,

    Are you recruiting lots of bright Indian IT graduates this year? Need to make up your Miliband quota of apprentices? We're here to help - we can supply bulk Romanians and Bulgarians. We supply only quality candidates, so we can offer a unique a money-back guarantee that they'll speak and write English, be polite, and turn up on time. Why run the risk of sourcing your make-weights locally?"
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited September 2013
    Plato said:

    The Staggers @TheStaggers
    Balls to announce tomorrow that the OBR will audit Labour's manifesto.

    Ahem.

    As predicted here by yours truly, May or June 2010, to much derision from Labour posters, IIRC. Only Hopi Sen - the thinking man's lefty - was smart enough to see the point.

    Osborne has changed the terms of political trade in the UK, probably for ever.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Ahem.

    As predicted here by yours truly, May or June 2010, to much derision from Labour posters, IIRC. Only Hopi Sen - the thinking man's lefty - was smart enough to see the point.

    Osborne has changed the terms of trade, probably for ever.

    @GdnPolitics: Ed Balls to ask watchdog to vet Labour's 2015 spending plans http://t.co/27iQN5SES5
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
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    tim said:


    Same applies now with apprentice schemes.

    No it doesn't. No company today has to take on apprentices to meet a quota.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Douglas Alexander has been blamed for one of the most toxic leaks of the Gordon Brown era as Damian McBride, the former Prime Minister’s disgraced spin doctor, threatened to wreak havoc throughout the rest of this week’s Labour Party conference.

    Mr McBride will cause further disruption to Ed Miliband’s key conference when he arrives in Brighton amid calls for a police investigation into his “hacking” of Mr Brown’s e-mails.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/conference/article3876268.ece
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    tim said:

    tim said:



    Any EU citizen can take one of the apprenticeships currently promoted by the govt.

    How many do, come on Scotty, we're waiting.

    I think you've slightly missed the point, tim.

    Once Ed's quotas get onto the statute books, lots of enterprising pan-European recruitment agents will be on the case.

    'Dear Director of Human Resources,

    Are you recruiting lots of bright Indian IT graduates this year? Need to make up your Miliband quota of apprentices? We're here to help - we can supply bulk Romanians and Bulgarians. We supply only quality candidates, so we can offer a unique a money-back guarantee that they'll speak English, be polite, and turn up on time. Why run the risk of sourcing your make-weights locally?"
    Same applies now with apprentice schemes.
    All jobs an apprenticeships are for EU workers, surprised anyone would be surprised, Thatcherism in motion

    If you encourage people to take up apprenticeships by creating them and then suggesting young people take them when leaving school, then you disproportionately capture Britons. If employers are going to go and seek apprentices, then that's not going to be the case.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited September 2013
    Scott_P said:

    Douglas Alexander has been blamed for one of the most toxic leaks of the Gordon Brown era as Damian McBride, the former Prime Minister’s disgraced spin doctor, threatened to wreak havoc throughout the rest of this week’s Labour Party conference.

    Mr McBride will cause further disruption to Ed Miliband’s key conference when he arrives in Brighton amid calls for a police investigation into his “hacking” of Mr Brown’s e-mails.

    Now that is funny. Labour's attempt to shut down the story is to try to get the guy prosecuted?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Now that is funny. Labour's attempt to shut down the story is to try to get the guy prosecuted?

    To be fair, Labour's attempt to shut down the story is to claim they all knew exactly what was going on and urged Brown to sack him, while not resigning themselves.

    It's the Tories who are going to ask the police to investigate. Let's hope it's quicker than Plebgate...
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    Baden-Württemberg has finished counting.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Plato said:

    The Staggers @TheStaggers
    Balls to announce tomorrow that the OBR will audit Labour's manifesto.

    Ahem.

    As predicted here by yours truly, May or June 2010, to much derision from Labour posters, IIRC. Only Hopi Sen - the thinking man's lefty - was smart enough to see the point.

    Osborne has changed the terms of political trade in the UK, probably for ever.


    CCHQ Press Office @RicHolden

    From @sajidjavid (1/2): 'Ed Balls knows this is not allowed under the OBR's charter, so this is just a stunt...'

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ToryTreasury: 2 Labour policies unravel on the same day. Apprenticeships policy illegal and OBR policy is directly contrary to the OBR charter. Shambles
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    Impossible! How could Germany be doing better than us when they don't have The City ?
    Finance in the UK has, by and large, forgotten that its role is helping savers save, and helping businesses grow by providing capital.

    That should be its job, acting as an intermediary between those who wish to defer consumption (i.e. savers), and those who need funds for investment now (i.e. businesses.)
    Very true.

    Instead the financial services industry now regards itself as more important than either the savers or the businesses.

    Indeed much of the financial services would prefer to dispense with both the savers and businesses and instead attempt to make money out of thin air.

    Doubtless this activity would make various executives rich and leave the rest of us with the bailout costs.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Plato said:

    The Staggers @TheStaggers
    Balls to announce tomorrow that the OBR will audit Labour's manifesto.

    Ahem.

    As predicted here by yours truly, May or June 2010, to much derision from Labour posters, IIRC. Only Hopi Sen - the thinking man's lefty - was smart enough to see the point.

    Osborne has changed the terms of political trade in the UK, probably for ever.
    The Tories are claiming you're wrong, what's going on?
    Well if the tories are right,it's a bloody shambles.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Beth Rigby ✔ @BethRigby

    OBR's chote tells FT the @edballsmp plan to get OBR to audit Labour's tax/spend manifesto policy need "cross party support". Empty promise?

    shambles ?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    tim said:

    tim said:

    CD13 said:


    "Large firms would have to train local apprentices if they recruited workers from outside the EU."

    How do you define apprentice? The chance of would-be Chinese plumbers coming to the UK are tiny. Bulgarians and Rumanians wouldn't trigger that clause anyway.

    So isn't it meaningless tosh?

    Just curious.

    Apprentice – A term so corrupted from the original that today it is almost meaningless.

    Local – Equally meaningless as it would encompass all 27 EU countries.
    Ah another one turns up.

    So could you help where Floater and ScottP are struggling

    Prime Minister announces 100,000 new engineering apprentices

    How many of those apprenticeships do you expect to go to foreigners?
    Although it seems like you regard them as meaningless do you?


    One is where positive action is being encouraged voluntarily.
    One is where meaningless talk of compulsion is being done to sound tough.

    Spot the difference? 100k useful and voluntary apprentices > meaningless box-ticking exercise to sound tough.
    But the 100,000 apprenticeships are all going to foreigners ScottP and Floater are claiming, without any data of course.

    I claimed nothing of the sort

    but dealing in facts not your strongest point is it whine merchant
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:


    My brother became less of fan though when they would only offer a 10% discount on supplies for his village's charity fête in honour of the Queen's Diamond Jubilee.

    He claims the nearby Upperton sparkling wines from Tillington village are better, but I suspect this may be due to the latter's superior generosity to West Sussex charitable causes.

    So take your pick: http://www.uppertonvineyards.co.uk/public_html/

    It sounds like your brother takes after that rascal Cousin Seth.

    Is there any chance he might make an appearance at PB ?

    I have asked, ar, but I fear in vain.

    Cousin Seth appears to be wholly absorbed in enjoying his honeymoon in Cleethorpes with his new wife and digital camera.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited September 2013
    Moderated

    The reference to Piers Morgan and phone hacking is unacceptable and is why your comment was moderated.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Beth Rigby ✔ @BethRigby

    OBR's chote tells FT the @edballsmp plan to get OBR to audit Labour's tax/spend manifesto policy need "cross party support". Empty promise?

    shambles ?

    None of the above.

    A bid by Chote for additional resources.

    He fears Roger's innumerate musings over a latte at the Old Compton Street Patisserie Valerie will not withstand the scrutiny of a general election campaign.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Beth Rigby ✔ @BethRigby

    Balls looks 2 OBR 2 help deal with Labour rep of profligacy but OBR chief Chote says it will cost asks Parly 2 decide http://on.ft.com/1b52IMR

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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Found it again...

    Right of residence for more than three months

    The right of residence for more than three months remains subject to certain conditions. Applicants must:

    either be engaged in economic activity (on an employed or self-employed basis);
    or have sufficient resources and sickness insurance to ensure that they do not become a burden on the social services of the host Member State during their stay. The Member States may not specify a minimum amount which they deem sufficient, but they must take account of personal circumstances;
    or be following vocational training as a student and have sufficient resources and sickness insurance to ensure that they do not become a burden on the social services of the host Member State during their stay;
    or be a family member of a Union citizen who falls into one of the above categories.

    http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/justice_freedom_security/free_movement_of_persons_asylum_immigration/l33152_en.htm
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724


    Christopher Snowdon @cjsnowdon
    'Labour will stop benefit if parents refuse MMR'. What next from Miliband's wheel of random policy-making?
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    tim said:

    The Tories are claiming you're wrong, what's going on?

    My dear tim, I'm disappointed in you.

    What's going on is very clear: Osborne, slightly ahead of me, rightly anticipated in 2010 that Labour would seek to get their plans endorsed by the OBR, and therefore blocked that possibility when he set up the OBR.

    A smart move. A very smart move. Labour will of course have to reverse it if they do form the next government.
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    tim said:

    How many people move across borders to take up apprenticeships. Its a simple question that you should be able to answer given the case you are trying to make.

    The question isn't how many do it now, but how many people might do it in the future if people set up schemes to circumvent the "hire one foreigner, hire one apprentice" policy.

    The other possibility is that the scheme is unworkable due to the ability of companies to claim that anyone is an apprentice.

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Toby Young @toadmeister
    So EdM and his team have had three years to dream up new policies and 1st big one they announce breaches EU law #edmishambles
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    Times Front Page

    "Labour will stop benefits if parents refuse MMR"

    Hallelujah.

    Another policy that will last as long as it takes to take action on Human Rights grounds.

    Regardless of the bona fide intent of the policy.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
    edited September 2013
    On current votes Merkel has an absolute majority but I assume Hamburg and Bremen will have something to say about that.

    Current: Union 42.9%, left-wing parties 41.5%.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,756
    Andy_JS said:

    On current votes Merkel has an absolute majority but I assume Hamburg and Bremen will have something to say about that.

    Currently the FDP are on 4.9% after 249 constituencies out of 299. Is there a list of who has yet to declare ?
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited September 2013
    tim said:

    As I understand Chotes comments the Tories will have to vote it down in Parliament.
    Which wouldn't be smart.

    Why should they vote it down? An entire debate where Tory MP after Tory MP can point to Labour's irresponsibility, and agree with the honourable members on the other side that Labour can't possibly be trusted to write a manifesto without a minder. Plus the fact that it will torpedo Ed's money-tree spending plans. That's good for the country, and good for the Conservative Party - do you think all those Labour insults about the OBR have been lost from Google's archive, or that the Labour core vote will be content to discover that an independent body is in a position to veto any reversals to Osborne's cuts?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Not sure if this is visible beyond the Paywall - brilliant cartoon re Damian vs EdM

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/article2481811.ece#tab-4
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    Times Front Page

    "Labour will stop benefits if parents refuse MMR"

    Hallelujah.

    Another policy that will last as long as it takes to take action on Human Rights grounds.

    Regardless of the bona fide intent of the policy.

    Doubtful, Australia already do it.

    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/subjects/immunising-your-children
    Doubtful - FFS,as labour checked on any of they policies.

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    I note UKIP aren't volunteering to submit their manifesto the OBR.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    AveryLP said:

    tim said:

    Times Front Page

    "Labour will stop benefits if parents refuse MMR"

    Hallelujah.

    Another policy that will last as long as it takes to take action on Human Rights grounds.

    Regardless of the bona fide intent of the policy.

    Doubtful, Australia already do it.

    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/subjects/immunising-your-children
    A better sanction might be exclusion by schools as at least they suffer the risk of non-vaccination.

    But to link an unrelated social benefit payment to a discretionary medical treatment option appears dubious on legal grounds.

    Another option might be to make MMR vaccination compulsory.

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    tim said:

    AveryLP said:


    Another policy that will last as long as it takes to take action on Human Rights grounds.

    Regardless of the bona fide intent of the policy.


    Doubtful, Australia already do it.

    http://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/subjects/immunising-your-children
    Not sure Australia has any obligation under the ECHR.

    In any case, why withdraw benefits? Why not simply make it illegal and prosecute? In my view, the Government has no right discriminating against people for doing something that is not illegal.

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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    'The “Cost of Living Crisis” Is Labour Policy

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/09/22/the-cost-of-living-crisis-is-labour-policy/

    So Labour's strategy is wage increases and much higher unemployment..

    Too far too fast- fail,double dip recession- fail,triple dip recession - fail, 4 million unemployed - fail,welfare cuts -fail,benefits cap-fail.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ed Miliband has come up with a brilliant way of helping the BBC save money. It’s called the Self-Interview. This morning the Labour leader treated viewers of The Andrew Marr Show to a special demonstration.

    Currently, the BBC spends a lot of money employing professional interviewers. Mr Miliband was determined to prove that this was unnecessary. He did it in two ways. First, by ignoring Andrew Marr’s questions; second, by asking himself questions of his own, which he would then answer. Today the questions he asked himself included, “Who is best placed to tackle the standard-of-living crisis the country faces?”, “Is there a party that can tackle that?”, “What sort of set of priorities is that?”, “Why is it so important?” and (twice) “Now, why do I say that?”

    As a helpless Marr looked on, gloomily reflecting on his own obsolescence, Mr Miliband grilled himself rigorously, probing and probing, fearlessly asking himself questions from which lesser interviewers would have flinched. Unfortunately there isn’t space here to transcribe the Self-Interview in full, but essentially it went as follows. >> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10326820/Sketch-Forget-FrostNixon-heres-MilibandMiliband.html
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    In any case, why withdraw benefits? Why not simply make it illegal and prosecute? In my view, the Government has no right discriminating against people for doing something that is not illegal.

    That's true. Either it's a legal obligation on parents, or it's not. Ed Miliband seems to want to make it a de-facto obligation on any parent not rich enough to be able to tell him where to stuff his MMR jab. That's completely bonkers.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684

    Andy_JS said:

    On current votes Merkel has an absolute majority but I assume Hamburg and Bremen will have something to say about that.

    Currently the FDP are on 4.9% after 249 constituencies out of 299. Is there a list of who has yet to declare ?
    Click on the links on this page to find out, on the right-hand side:

    http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/ergebnisse/status/status_b_99.html
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,684
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    In any case, why withdraw benefits? Why not simply make it illegal and prosecute? In my view, the Government has no right discriminating against people for doing something that is not illegal.

    That's true. Either it's a legal obligation on parents, or it's not. Ed Miliband seems to want to make it a de-facto obligation on any parent not rich enough to be able to tell him where to stuff his MMR jab. That's completely bonkers.
    Quite - and its very coercive.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013

    tim said:

    The Tories are claiming you're wrong, what's going on?

    My dear tim, I'm disappointed in you.

    What's going on is very clear: Osborne, slightly ahead of me, rightly anticipated in 2010 that Labour would seek to get their plans endorsed by the OBR, and therefore blocked that possibility when he set up the OBR.

    A smart move. A very smart move. Labour will of course have to reverse it if they do form the next government.
    Richard

    Are you sure the OBR are up to validating manifesto plans?

    I find their monthly commentaries on the Public Sector Finances hasty and opaque. This is partly because the attempt to produce a commentary in two and half hours from the ONS publication is unnecessarily restrictive.

    It is also in part due to ONS PSF bulletin being opaque and disorganised itself. A fact which the ONS have recognised and are moving slowly to change.

    But mostly due to lack of resource (and access to ONS and government ministries?) within the OBR.

    Maybe a way of sorting this out would be for the OBR to became an independent branch of the OECD. This would both bolster its independence and give it ad hoc access to all the resource it could possibly use in Paris.



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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    In any case, why withdraw benefits? Why not simply make it illegal and prosecute? In my view, the Government has no right discriminating against people for doing something that is not illegal.

    That's true. Either it's a legal obligation on parents, or it's not. Ed Miliband seems to want to make it a de-facto obligation on any parent not rich enough to be able to tell him where to stuff his MMR jab. That's completely bonkers.

    You lose your benefits if you turn down enough jobs, but it's not illegal to turn down jobs.
    Why should the state subsidise people who are deliberately putting their children, and other peoples children at risk?
    I really do think this would be defeated in a human rights court,is it just me who thinks this is a bonkers idea.

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    tim said:

    You lose your benefits if you turn down enough jobs, but it's not illegal to turn down jobs.
    Why should the state subsidise people who are deliberately putting their children, and other peoples children at risk?

    Because the benefits are meant to support you at a time when you unfortunately can't find a job. The purpose of benefits has absolutely zilch to do with the MMR vaccine. In any case, if you're worried about putting people at risk, why should those parents who aren't on benefits be allowed to get away with it?

    It's A1 bonkers, a policy which makes no sense whatsoever, either for those who think parents should be able to decide whether or not their children get the jab, or for those who think they shouldn't.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Plato

    'Ed Miliband has come up with a brilliant way of helping the BBC save money. It’s called the Self-Interview'

    Ed didn't manage to answer a single question,just a rambling incoherent monologue,can't wait for Paxman.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Not a happy ship

    Tom hates Bob. Ed doesn’t have much faith in Iain. Tim has a political tin ear. Anna’s the fixer who doesn’t fix it. Greg is in exile and behaving like it. Torsten wants discipline but puts the Shadow Cabinet’s backs up.

    Nobody is quite sure what Jon’s up to, particularly when he’s “thinking” in his new place in the West of Ireland. And there aren’t enough hours in the day for Stewart to sort it all out. When in doubt, they blame the Blairites.

    Welcome to Ed Miliband’s inner circle, the group who must now hold the ring for what is shaping up to be a fractious five-day Labour family gathering by the seaside, starting today...In recent months, the adjectives about Mr Miliband’s operation have started to echo those used about Gordon Brown’s Downing Street team, with talk of “guerrilla warfare” between some shadow ministerial offices and “decision-making malaise”. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/conference/article3875246.ece
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    tim said:

    You lose your benefits if you turn down enough jobs, but it's not illegal to turn down jobs.
    Why should the state subsidise people who are deliberately putting their children, and other peoples children at risk?

    Because the benefits are meant to support you at a time when you unfortunately can't find a job. The purpose of benefits has absolutely zilch to do with the MMR vaccine. In any case, if you're worried about putting people at risk, why should those parents who aren't on benefits be allowed to get away with it?

    It's A1 bonkers, a policy which makes no sense whatsoever, either for those who think parents should be able to decide whether or not their children get the jab, or for those who think they shouldn't.
    "The measures designed to meet the legislative objective [must be] rationally connected to it": de Freitas v Permanent Secretary of Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Lands and Housing [1999] 1 AC 69 (PC) (and oft-quoted)
This discussion has been closed.