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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will “Angie’s” third term be with the reds or the yellows?

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    tim said:

    Ave_it said:

    One result in and Wee-Timmy is blaming other posters about the early results.

    Kam' dun' and ava bev', the night is still young....

    Con 43%
    LDs 5%
    Lab 27%

    All about the warmup for GE2015!

    Tim making the excuses for Labour defeat now!

    Tim = Palace

    Thatcher 44%
    Major 42%

    Chum Cameron 37%

    Spot the difference?

    Ave It = Di Canio.
    Callaghan 39.2%
    Kinnock 30.8%
    Brown 27%

    Spot the difference?

    Do you know what's not different between Cameron, Thatcher and Major? Following an election he ended up being PM.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Tim - won't quote it all as it will be boring for others!

    Di Canio = top man
    Holloway = (term not now used on pb.com) :)
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013

    Scott_P said:

    @olafcramme
    Shocking #SPD result won't cheer UK #Labour: German version of living standard crisis flopped vs message of economic stability & continuity.

    Mrs Merkel has a much better record than Team Cameron.

    Mrs Merkel didn't have to inherit the near bankrupt economy left by Mr Brown.

    But if you are talking current economic performance and short term expectations, which are the measures of most concern to electors, then Team Cameron are demonstrably outperforming the Germans.

    On the upside, Germany has a larger economy, a relatively sound fiscal position, a strong manufacturing and export base and a good track record of economic performance. On the downside is its role as guarantor of the Euro and its longer term demographic problems.

    The UK, on the upside, has a dominance in European financial services, (albeit depleting) energy resources, a reasonable manufacturing and export base, its own currency and relative detachment from Euro risk, a flexible labour market and better long term demographics.

    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.




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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352

    Alternatively, Ed could mean that if you employed an Indian engineer, you'd have to create a non-job for a NEET. I suspect you'd be better off with the Bulgarians and Rumanians, They'd be happy to come for any job. It would certainly encourage them to come in the first place.

    Still, at least he's trying.




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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,135

    rcs1000 said:

    @oldLabour, mikeK

    I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.

    I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?

    IIRC one of the major means of discrimination in N Ireland was by asking job applicants where they went to school. The answer "St Whatever's" mean that they were Catholic; Antrim (or whatever) County High meant they were Protestant, and an employer could discriminate on the basis of their prejudices.
    Are we creating a situation where an employer can ask the same question on the mainland, and discriminate as a result?
    Are we anticipating the vast majority of people to attend such schools and exclusively because of religion? And if that is where most parents want to send their kids (and not seeing any evidence it is) why shouldn't they?

    Not all people who at present attend Anglican schools do so because they are Christian let alone protestant. Many do so because they believe it is a well run school.
    Philip, I accept your last two sentences. However, I ask, do we run the risk of creating that division, even if it's the second or third criterion?
    How does one differentiate, given two or three equal candidates at school-leaver level?

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    tim said:

    CD13 said:


    "Large firms would have to train local apprentices if they recruited workers from outside the EU."

    How do you define apprentice? The chance of would-be Chinese plumbers coming to the UK are tiny. Bulgarians and Rumanians wouldn't trigger that clause anyway.

    So isn't it meaningless tosh?

    Just curious.

    Apprentice – A term so corrupted from the original that today it is almost meaningless.

    Local – Equally meaningless as it would encompass all 27 EU countries.
    Ah another one turns up.

    So could you help where Floater and ScottP are struggling

    Prime Minister announces 100,000 new engineering apprentices

    How many of those apprenticeships do you expect to go to foreigners?
    Although it seems like you regard them as meaningless do you?


    One is where positive action is being encouraged voluntarily.
    One is where meaningless talk of compulsion is being done to sound tough.

    Spot the difference? 100k useful and voluntary apprentices > meaningless box-ticking exercise to sound tough.
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    Bugger! I predicted a CDU/FDP coalition for the Election Game!

    :(
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    tim said:

    Thatcher 44%
    Major 42%

    Chum Cameron 37%

    Spot the difference?

    Ave It = Di Canio.

    Cronie&Imedla [With Gormless in tow] 2005 was...? Go clean the cellar boy...!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Any website which shows total votes cast so far, so we can get a sense of the position of FDP/AfD?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    rcs1000 said:

    @oldLabour, mikeK

    I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.

    I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
    Agree with this and your subsequent comments upstream. This should be the direction of travel for the education system with maximum mobility and freedom for child and parent at the expense of the dead controlling hand of the State.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RobD said:

    Any website which shows total votes cast so far, so we can get a sense of the position of FDP/AfD?

    As good as any...
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,258
    I am completely in favour of freeing education from the dead hand of the state. However, if tax pennies are being spent, they should not be used in promoting religion.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited September 2013
    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    There are two independent awards for economic performance. Budget surpluses, and election results.

    Not a lot silverware in the Cameroon cabinet.

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    Philip, I accept your last two sentences. However, I ask, do we run the risk of creating that division, even if it's the second or third criterion?
    How does one differentiate, given two or three equal candidates at school-leaver level

    No I don't believe we run the risk of creating that division of it requires the simultaneous division both that parents will choose to act on such divisions at selecting the school level and that employers will choose to act on such divisions at employment level. I don't see either ringing true today.

    As for differentiating between two school leavers there are a variety of mechanisms. A school-leaver level may go on to college or university level.

    Even if they don't then there is a variety of mechanisms. Extra-curricula activities whether sports, drama, music, Duke of Ed or many others are a good way for a school leaver to flesh out a CV.

    A CV is also better fleshed out by being professional and with good grammar and without spelling mistakes etc which is far from guaranteed nowadays where so many school leavers can't spell (or even use a spell checker) correctly.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    RodCrosby said:

    RobD said:

    Any website which shows total votes cast so far, so we can get a sense of the position of FDP/AfD?

    As good as any...
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
    Well FAZ has an interactive map, but no total votes cast summary. Maybe their results tab will move from exit poll to actual results soon?

    http://www.faz.net/op900/event/bundestagswahl/live/#/live-source02
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Spiegel ticker: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/liveticker-die-bundestagswahl-live-bei-spiegel-online-a-923600.html Merkel has ruled out a minority government + she says she has no intention of stepping down during the next parliament
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    I am completely in favour of freeing education from the dead hand of the state. However, if tax pennies are being spent, they should not be used in promoting religion.

    Promoting the absence of religion is just as much of a position. It is not neutral. Parents should have the choice of any flavour of school they like (which reaches certain defined and verified educational standards).

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    This "apprentice" saga is developing into a bidding war.

    Anyway, I went on a Wirral pub crawl last month.

    Getting off at Hamilton Square, we walked on until we came to a place that could be tim’s local. A pleasant looking place called “The Milliband Arms”.

    When I asked for a pint, the barman shook his head. “Not allowed,” he said. “We only serve beer in halves. Don’t you know that pints are responsible for domestic violence? You wouldn’t want to encourage that, would you?”

    “I suppose not,” I said.

    As the barman grabbed a Euro glass, he looked up with a frown. “Heard about the problem with the immigrants.”

    “Oh, what is it now?”

    “There aren’t any.” He finished filling the glass. “And there weren’t any here last year either.”

    “Oh?”

    “Pity. They would keep us on our toes. Without them, we get lazy and over-confident about our jobs.”

    “I suppose so. Is the pub quiz on tonight?”

    “No,” he said. “We had to knock it on the head.”

    “Oh, why?”

    “Couldn’t get the gender balance correct.”

    “Well, is the football on later?”

    “No, but there is a fascinating discussion on dialectical materialism and pre-distribution.”

    “Hmmm ... “ I looked around. “You don’t seem to be very busy.”

    “Well, we had Viscount Stansgate and Lady Harman in last week. And only last night, we had Shaun Woodward and his butler – salt of the earth they are.”

    I took the offered glass. “Thank you, landlord.”

    He frowned again. “Land-person,” he said. “But I’m only temporary, they’re advertising for a permanent replacement.”

    “Many people interested?”

    He looked up. “Not many, it’s the surgery, you see.”

    “The surgery?”

    “Yes, it’s a transgender short list.”

    Sorry, tim, couldn't resist it.





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    Nice photo of Mrs Merkel.

    http://on.wsj.com/18OT3Cs
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RobD said:

    Any website which shows total votes cast so far, so we can get a sense of the position of FDP/AfD?

    As good as any...
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
    Well FAZ has an interactive map, but no total votes cast summary. Maybe their results tab will move from exit poll to actual results soon?

    http://www.faz.net/op900/event/bundestagswahl/live/#/live-source02
    The current totals on www.ard.de and www.zdf.de are actual votes cast, not sure if they're weighted for where they're coming from. The latest (21.00 German time) is the ZDF: they have the CDU 0.1% short of a majority of votes over the other parties in the Bundestag. At present they're predicting a tie, 303-303.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Forecasting seems to have stopped...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,258
    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
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    RodCrosby said:

    The Greeks seem happy, at any rate...

    Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, Greek-German MEP

    “There are two pieces of good news from this election for Greece. The first is that it looks very likely that the alliance with the FDP won’t continue. The other is that the SDP, which has the best views regarding policies of austerity and has even talked of a Marshall plan

    The Marshall Plan was American aid given for the purposes of rebuilding European infrastructure and industry.

    Greece has been having a Marshall Plan via the EU for the last 30 years and pi55ed the money away on having a good time.

    What Greece needs isn't a 'Marshall Plan' but a boot up the arse followed by some proper graft and living within its means.

    And if living within its means results in Greece having the same living standards as Turkey or Bulgaria then that will be nothing it didn't deserve.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,258
    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I am completely in favour of freeing education from the dead hand of the state. However, if tax pennies are being spent, they should not be used in promoting religion.

    Promoting the absence of religion is just as much of a position. It is not neutral. Parents should have the choice of any flavour of school they like (which reaches certain defined and verified educational standards).

    Why do you believe that a school that does not teach religion is claiming the non-existance of God?

    You don't believe that schools are promoting the belief that there is not a giant teapot orbiting the earth, by not explicitly promoting it.

    If parents want to send their children to Sunday school they can.

    But tax pennies should not be spent on promoting any particular religion.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    tim said:

    @CD13

    A long post for someone who's going to be supporting Dave's attempted gender balancing in a junior minister reshuffle soon.
    Merely a consolation prize for Sam as she didn't get that lovely pair of missiles she wanted but a nice present nonetheless.

    There's a familiar Draperiness/McBridiness to the way you like to smear Conservative politicians' wives. Well done.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RobD said:

    Any website which shows total votes cast so far, so we can get a sense of the position of FDP/AfD?

    As good as any...
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
    Well FAZ has an interactive map, but no total votes cast summary. Maybe their results tab will move from exit poll to actual results soon?

    http://www.faz.net/op900/event/bundestagswahl/live/#/live-source02
    The current totals on www.ard.de and www.zdf.de are actual votes cast, not sure if they're weighted for where they're coming from. The latest (21.00 German time) is the ZDF: they have the CDU 0.1% short of a majority of votes over the other parties in the Bundestag. At present they're predicting a tie, 303-303.

    If it were actual votes cast wouldn't the CDU be much further ahead given that the bulk of currently declared seats are in Bavaria?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Dadge said:

    Will Merkel be forced to have a coalition even if she's only a couple of seats short of a majority?

    No, but Germans like stable government. I think she'll be keen to bring the SPD in, so the position is not quite as suspenseful as it seems - though if she had a majority she'd have a stronger negotiating hand.

    As others have said, there is no chance of an SPD-Green-Left government - the SPD and Greens don't regard the Left as ready for national government yet, and probably won't until they move on to the next generation of leaders, free of both SED history and Lafontaine defection. Bringing down a Merkel government with Left votes would be problematic too given that she's just won big, so she COULD probably go it alone for a year or so until some big crisis came along.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,258
    As I've said all along, a Grand Coalition is the only plausible outcome - not least because Mrs Merkel will want plenty of cover for her plans to sort out Europe.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773
    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    Impossible! How could Germany be doing better than us when they don't have The City ?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn
    Well worth looking at @DPMcBride's latest tweets - he can't hold back any longer. Be careful Damian, think of your Mail money!
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    tim,

    It's all gesture politics anyway. Trying to defend it must be as frustrating as trying to criticise it.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    CDU/CSU and AfD slipping back a touch...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,258

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    Impossible! How could Germany be doing better than us when they don't have The City ?
    Finance in the UK has, by and large, forgotten that its role is helping savers save, and helping businesses grow by providing capital.

    That should be its job, acting as an intermediary between those who wish to defer consumption (i.e. savers), and those who need funds for investment now (i.e. businesses.)
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    rcs1000 said:

    @oldLabour, mikeK

    I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.

    I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
    But why should the criterion that decides what school a child goes to be the religion of its parent(s)?

    Although I'm an atheist I'm somewhat of a small-c conservative: I went to a CE primary school and the ethos of my grammar school wasn't much different. I enjoyed the hymn-singing etc and believe that modern children (including my own daughter) could do worse than having the same experience.

    But, having gone into several faith schools in the last few years, I'm beginning to change my mind. First of all, I find the ethos in a lot of CE and RC schools quite creepy. In theory I don't think the indoctrination matters much, but in practice it seems wrong that in the 21st century we're telling lies to kids in order to get them to behave.

    Secondly, the supposed correlation between faith schools and standards and exam results is ridiculous. Surely most of the difference comes from the fact that the proportion of kids from better-off families is higher in faith schools. There can be nothing intrinsically "better" about a faith school. In other words, we're bring conned.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    But an annual performance award would look at movements within a year rather than absolute levels.

    So the questions would be:

    Which of the two countries have:

    Reduced unemployment most?
    Increase employment most?
    Reduced/increased its current account defict/surplus most?
    ...etc.

    You are not investing in Spain, Robert, because of the absolute strength of its economy, but because of its prospects for disproportional improvement. It is the vectors which count.

    And 2013 is the year of Jaguar LandRover not Mercedes Benz! Why even the French are refusing to buy Mercs.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    It's either 297:301 or 303:303 depending on who you believe...
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Your selective reading comes to the fore again; from the second article:-

    "The wife of Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, also could not contain her fury. “I am SO angry about today’s vote,” wrote Sarah Vine, a journalist. “No military action would have come out of it. It was simply about sending a signal. Cowardice.”"

    There's no quote from that article about missiles, and none from Samantha Cameron about military action; do you know she didn't feel the same as Sarah Vine?

    If you don't then what you said is a, typical for you, McBride style smear. Get some proper evidence before making them or stfu.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    Impossible! How could Germany be doing better than us when they don't have The City ?
    Finance in the UK has, by and large, forgotten that its role is helping savers save, and helping businesses grow by providing capital.

    That should be its job, acting as an intermediary between those who wish to defer consumption (i.e. savers), and those who need funds for investment now (i.e. businesses.)
    Regrettably RCS that's where we are and until UK plc puts it banks in order we won't make real progress.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I am completely in favour of freeing education from the dead hand of the state. However, if tax pennies are being spent, they should not be used in promoting religion.

    Promoting the absence of religion is just as much of a position. It is not neutral. Parents should have the choice of any flavour of school they like (which reaches certain defined and verified educational standards).

    Why do you believe that a school that does not teach religion is claiming the non-existance of God?

    You don't believe that schools are promoting the belief that there is not a giant teapot orbiting the earth, by not explicitly promoting it.

    If parents want to send their children to Sunday school they can.

    But tax pennies should not be spent on promoting any particular religion.
    I didn't say anything of the sort. I'm saying that a non-religious school isn't some wonderfully neutral ideal school, it is merely a different form of educational environment. It also has shortcomings. Look closely enough and the foundations of such a school are also made of clay, so to speak.

    Parents should have the ability to choose the education of their child with the widest possible scope. The State (and the shackles you wish to place on my choice because of your personal views) should play no part in limiting my freedom.
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    Impossible! How could Germany be doing better than us when they don't have The City ?

    Fewer Ulster-Scots...?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    CD13 said:


    "Large firms would have to train local apprentices if they recruited workers from outside the EU."

    How do you define apprentice? The chance of would-be Chinese plumbers coming to the UK are tiny. Bulgarians and Rumanians wouldn't trigger that clause anyway.

    So isn't it meaningless tosh?

    Just curious.

    Apprentice – A term so corrupted from the original that today it is almost meaningless.

    Local – Equally meaningless as it would encompass all 27 EU countries.
    Ah another one turns up.

    So could you help where Floater and ScottP are struggling

    Prime Minister announces 100,000 new engineering apprentices

    How many of those apprenticeships do you expect to go to foreigners?
    Although it seems like you regard them as meaningless do you?


    That's not the point,labour tried the wink,wink policy on *LOCAL* apprentices meaning british,like I pointed out before,if this had been a tory policy,you would have had a tim spasm on pb about it but you kept Quiet when labour were trying they wink wink policy.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773
    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    But an annual performance award would look at movements within a year rather than absolute levels.

    So the questions would be:

    Which of the two countries have:

    Reduced unemployment most?
    Increase employment most?
    Reduced/increased its current account defict/surplus most?
    ...etc.

    You are not investing in Spain, Robert, because of the absolute strength of its economy, but because of its prospects for disproportional improvement. It is the vectors which count.

    And 2013 is the year of Jaguar LandRover not Mercedes Benz! Why even the French are refusing to buy Mercs.

    ROFL - that's just pure Osbornian desperation Avery. Give me a forecast when we overtake Germany on exports, public finances and GDP ?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773

    Impossible! How could Germany be doing better than us when they don't have The City ?

    Fewer Ulster-Scots...?
    Less cypriot kebab houses ;-)
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    tim is telling more lies re Mrs Cameron.. no proof provided.. when is OGH going to have a word..
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,166
    Just occurred to me that the FDP are probably going to get more than 5% in the former West Germany and AfD more than 5% in the former East Germany.

    But both just short of 5% overall.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Tim is the Bloom of PB. He doesn 't think that women should have opinions.

    tim is telling more lies re Mrs Cameron.. no proof provided.. when is OGH going to have a word..

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773

    tim said:

    CD13 said:


    "Large firms would have to train local apprentices if they recruited workers from outside the EU."

    How do you define apprentice? The chance of would-be Chinese plumbers coming to the UK are tiny. Bulgarians and Rumanians wouldn't trigger that clause anyway.

    So isn't it meaningless tosh?

    Just curious.

    Apprentice – A term so corrupted from the original that today it is almost meaningless.

    Local – Equally meaningless as it would encompass all 27 EU countries.
    Ah another one turns up.

    So could you help where Floater and ScottP are struggling

    Prime Minister announces 100,000 new engineering apprentices

    How many of those apprenticeships do you expect to go to foreigners?
    Although it seems like you regard them as meaningless do you?


    That's not the point,labour tried the wink,wink policy on *LOCAL* apprentices meaning british,like I pointed out before,if this had been a tory policy,you would have had a tim spasm on pb about it but you kept Quiet when labour were trying they wink wink policy.
    It's Ed's new spinner's latest idea - sheepwhistling.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited September 2013

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    But an annual performance award would look at movements within a year rather than absolute levels.

    So the questions would be:

    Which of the two countries have:

    Reduced unemployment most?
    Increase employment most?
    Reduced/increased its current account defict/surplus most?
    ...etc.

    You are not investing in Spain, Robert, because of the absolute strength of its economy, but because of its prospects for disproportional improvement. It is the vectors which count.

    And 2013 is the year of Jaguar LandRover not Mercedes Benz! Why even the French are refusing to buy Mercs.

    ROFL - that's just pure Osbornian desperation Avery. Give me a forecast when we overtake Germany on exports, public finances and GDP ?
    During 2013?

    I don't even need to look up the figures. UK wins on all measures.

    We are not talking about absolute levels but movements within a year.

    But if you are set on disregarding trends and just want to concentrate on absolutes, get your bubbles in. It won't be long before Osborne calls on you to celebrate the UK overtaking France and becoming the EU's second largest economy.

    Indeed, it is so near that the bottles are being chilled as I speak.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Andy_JS said:

    Just occurred to me that the FDP are probably going to get more than 5% in the former West Germany and AfD more than 5% in the former East Germany.

    But both just short of 5% overall.

    As a one-off, in 1990, the electoral rule was changed so the 5% hurdle would apply in either the East or West...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,166
    edited September 2013
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,930
    RodCrosby said:

    It's either 297:301 or 303:303 depending on who you believe...

    295 on ARD now
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    CDU now 4 away from a majority, according to the ARD. AfD also slipping back slightly as postal votes now being counted, which were sent before the late surge. A poll suggests that 40% of CDU voters say it was a personal vote of confidence in Merkel.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    CDU/CSU down to 295:303 on one forecast...
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    Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited September 2013
    Wall Street Journal headline tonight: 'Germany's Liberals Suffer Historic Collapse in Election'

    Oh how we will chortle when the papers run their corresponding headlines in May 2015.

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,166
    edited September 2013
    Partial results for two Lands are being given at the moment:

    Bayern (24/45 constituencies):

    FDP: 4.5%
    AfD: 4.2%

    Rheinland-Pfalz (10/15 constituencies):

    FDP: 5.7%
    AfD: 4.9%

    http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/ergebnisse/status/status_b_99.html
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773
    edited September 2013
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    But an annual performance award would look at movements within a year rather than absolute levels.

    So the questions would be:

    Which of the two countries have:

    Reduced unemployment most?
    Increase employment most?
    Reduced/increased its current account defict/surplus most?
    ...etc.

    You are not investing in Spain, Robert, because of the absolute strength of its economy, but because of its prospects for disproportional improvement. It is the vectors which count.

    And 2013 is the year of Jaguar LandRover not Mercedes Benz! Why even the French are refusing to buy Mercs.

    ROFL - that's just pure Osbornian desperation Avery. Give me a forecast when we overtake Germany on exports, public finances and GDP ?
    During 2013?

    I don't even need to look up the figures. UK wins on all measures.

    So we will export more than Germany this year, our public finances will be in better shape and our GDP will be bigger than Germany's ? I don't really go in for bets on PB, but if all three stack up at the end of the year I'll send you a selection of Warwickshire's finest.

    http://www.puritybrewing.com/

    http://www.hoganscider.co.uk/where-to-buy

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,166
    I don't trust the SPD and Greens not to get into bed with Die Linke in 2 or 3 years time.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    About 37 minutes into Marr, Miliband says that the apprentice scheme will be "about training up our people".

    Who are "our people"?
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    But an annual performance award would look at movements within a year rather than absolute levels.

    So the questions would be:

    Which of the two countries have:

    Reduced unemployment most?
    Increase employment most?
    Reduced/increased its current account defict/surplus most?
    ...etc.

    You are not investing in Spain, Robert, because of the absolute strength of its economy, but because of its prospects for disproportional improvement. It is the vectors which count.

    And 2013 is the year of Jaguar LandRover not Mercedes Benz! Why even the French are refusing to buy Mercs.

    ROFL - that's just pure Osbornian desperation Avery. Give me a forecast when we overtake Germany on exports, public finances and GDP ?
    During 2013?

    I don't even need to look up the figures. UK wins on all measures.

    So we will export more than Germany this year, our public finances will be in better shape and our GDP will be bigger than Germany's ? I don't really go in for bets on PB, but if all three stack up at the end of the year I'll send you a selection of Warwickshire's finest.

    http://www.puritybrewing.com/

    http://www.hoganscider.co.uk/where-to-buy

    You are deliberately misunderstanding what I am saying, Mr Brooke.

    We are not talking absolute levels but rates of improvement during the year.

    And that is where the UK has outperformed Germany this year.

    As for absolute performance. Keep the cider. When we pass France in size of GDP we will be drinking Hollande's finest.



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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    edited September 2013
    FDP up 0.1% to 4.6% at 21:45 with ZDF.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Overhang mandates in 2009 (21 CDU, 3 CSU)

    Schleswig-Holstein 1 CDU
    Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2 CDU
    Sachsen 4 CDU
    Thüringen 1 CDU
    Rheinland-Pfalz 2 CDU
    Bayern 3 CSU
    Baden-Württemberg 10 CDU
    Saarland 1 CDU
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @Alanbrooke

    Just noted you replied to my earlier comment before I edited it to add a couple of paragraphs.

    My apologies.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ZDF 302:304
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773
    edited September 2013
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AveryLP said:


    If independent awards were given annually for economic performance, there is no doubt Team Cameron would beat Team Merkel for the 2013 prize.

    German unemployment (5.3%) at a 20 year low, vs UK at 7.7%.
    German current account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German primary budget surplus vs against UK deficit
    German private sector debt is less than half the level of the UK
    German trade account surplus, vs UK deficit
    German GDP above 2008 levels vs UK below

    Now, the UK has been performing better than most of its European peers. But, by and large, Germany has performed better than us.
    .

    And 2013 is the year of Jaguar LandRover not Mercedes Benz! Why even the French are refusing to buy Mercs.

    ROFL - that's just pure Osbornian desperation Avery. Give me a forecast when we overtake Germany on exports, public finances and GDP ?
    During 2013?

    I don't even need to look up the figures. UK wins on all measures.

    So we will export more th if all three stack up at the end of the year I'll send you a selection of Warwickshire's finest.

    http://www.puritybrewing.com/

    http://www.hoganscider.co.uk/where-to-buy

    You are deliberately misunderstanding what I am saying, Mr Brooke.

    We are not talking absolute levels but rates of improvement during the year.

    And that is where the UK has outperformed Germany this year.

    As for absolute performance. Keep the cider. When we pass France in size of GDP we will be drinking Hollande's finest.



    It's less me misunderstanding as you not knowing what you're talking about. ;-)

    As as for champagne a quisling's quaff (I expected nothing more from you Pole ) if we pass them I shall be drinking

    http://nyetimber.com/

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    About 37 minutes into Marr, Miliband says that the apprentice scheme will be "about training up our people".

    Who are "our people"?

    He meant British people, until it was pointed at that would be illegal. The new line is "he meant anyone in the EU, but that's OK cos they won't come"

    It's desperate stuff
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    So does it look like the CSU will win every constituency in Bavaria?

    I wonder what the UK equivalent would be? The Tories winning the whole of the South East, Labour winning all of Scotland?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JuliaHB1: If you put the worst of tonight's #xfactor offerings in a room for 24hrs, I bet they'd come up with more coherent policies than Labour have.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so. This comes despite considerable support from the Federal government which is causing increasing anger among some in the old West Germany.
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    Scott_P said:

    About 37 minutes into Marr, Miliband says that the apprentice scheme will be "about training up our people".

    Who are "our people"?

    He meant British people, until it was pointed at that would be illegal. The new line is "he meant anyone in the EU, but that's OK cos they won't come"

    It's desperate stuff
    The fact they, quite clearly hadn't thought this through, defies belief. I suspect this week will see a great deal of populist nonsense that will fall a part quickly. The reality is unless you have money to through at a problem Labour have nothing to offer.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I can't help thinking that Labour's apprenticeship scheme is a sort of cut and shut, targetting one part disingenuously (reducing skilled non-EU immigration) and the other part otherwise fine (more apprenticeships) but utilised a really strange way. It's clearly about headlines.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    I take it the German election is quite close :)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Grandiose said:

    I can't help thinking that Labour's apprenticeship scheme is a sort of cut and shut, targetting one part disingenuously (reducing skilled non-EU immigration) and the other part otherwise fine (more apprenticeships) but utilised a really strange way. It's clearly about headlines.

    It was a dog-whistle. Sadly Ed didn't realise it could be heard in Romania.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    So does it look like the CSU will win every constituency in Bavaria?

    I wonder what the UK equivalent would be? The Tories winning the whole of the South East, Labour winning all of Scotland?

    FPTP produces vast swathes of wipeouts across the country - Germany, UK or anyplace...
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    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so. This comes despite considerable support from the Federal government which is causing increasing anger among some in the old West Germany.

    Careful, Grandiose - surely the, ahem, "old" east Germany was Pomerania, Silesia and East Prussia (and Posen too, if you like)!
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    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so. This comes despite considerable support from the Federal government which is causing increasing anger among some in the old West Germany.

    This reminds me of feeling extremely old (only 32) when discussing the first World Cup we could remember with some of the new trainees at work.

    Me: Italia '90.

    Trainee: Who won it?

    Me: West Germany:

    Trainee: What's West Germany?!

    Me: It's a long story.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    ARD 296:302

    Merkel pulls one back...
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so. This comes despite considerable support from the Federal government which is causing increasing anger among some in the old West Germany.

    Careful, Grandiose - surely the, ahem, "old" east Germany was Pomerania, Silesia and East Prussia (and Posen too, if you like)!
    "Those parts of Germany formerly part of the German Democratic Republic", then , with the possible exception of that part of the DDR which was East Berlin (for which I haven't seen the figures).
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Sky: al-Shabbab claiming a Brit is amongst the Kenyan terrorists....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alstewitn: #DowntonAbbey #DowagerGems If O'Brien's replacement is a non-EU worker, will Lord Grantham also have to take on an apprentice?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Some (non-German) commentators reckon AfD might make it.

    Merkel would be well-short in that case...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Andy_JS said:
    Cheers, google docs is awesome!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SPD leader "won't speculate on the shape of the next government. Ball in Merkel's court. She must obtain her majority..."
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    http://www.n-tv.de/#

    According to ZDF, 302/606
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    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so.

    If it wasn't Germany, I'd say what the old East Germany needs is a party like the SNP. What they don't need is anything resembling 'Scottish' Labour.

    'The demography won’t change: an aging, and ailing, population coupled with a declining birth rate. Nor will the geography: peripheral to the United Kingdom, never mind Europe, never mind the world. Or the economics: that we will be, forever, in the shadow of our much larger neighbour. Or even the reality that our major natural resource, oil, is declining both in quantity and fashion. '

    http://tinyurl.com/nsgg96m
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Scott_P said:

    About 37 minutes into Marr, Miliband says that the apprentice scheme will be "about training up our people".

    Who are "our people"?

    He meant British people, until it was pointed at that would be illegal. The new line is "he meant anyone in the EU, but that's OK cos they won't come"

    It's desperate stuff
    To be honest, I don't think he necessarily did. He never mentions Britain or British at all, and does mention (of course) "hard working families". By this I assume he means people paying taxes (and their children) which, given the EU law, could include any familes that chose to come here from another EU country. So long as the parents have jobs (else they wouldn't be hard working).

    What I object to is EU nationals coming here without jobs in order to, and being able to, claim from our benefit system. Trouble is, we're not allowed to discriminate, once they're here, against them. We are though allowed to discriminate against them at the border if they don't have sufficient wealth to be able to survive without a job, and I can't work out why the hell we don't do that.

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    Grandiose said:

    "Those parts of Germany formerly part of the German Democratic Republic", then , with the possible exception of that part of the DDR which was East Berlin (for which I haven't seen the figures).

    That would be remarkably imprecise language then, as East Berlin was never formally part of the DDR. Berlin was occupied territory until unification.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,773

    Grandiose said:

    One of Germany's biggest problems coming is that it still has not "rehabilitated" the old East Germany: young people still leave, incomes are depressed, and the population disproportionately old and getting more so.

    If it wasn't Germany, I'd say what the old East Germany needs is a party like the SNP. What they don't need is anything resembling 'Scottish' Labour.

    'The demography won’t change: an aging, and ailing, population coupled with a declining birth rate. Nor will the geography: peripheral to the United Kingdom, never mind Europe, never mind the world. Or the economics: that we will be, forever, in the shadow of our much larger neighbour. Or even the reality that our major natural resource, oil, is declining both in quantity and fashion. '

    http://tinyurl.com/nsgg96m
    So we could have Scotland twinned with East Germany ? I wouldn't say that would do much for Scotland divvie.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    He never mentions Britain or British at all

    The line was "local"

    Do you really think he was describing Romanians as local?

    "The Labour leader said his Government would introduce an Immigration Bill in its first year to get employers to hire local workers "
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548



    To be honest, I don't think he necessarily did.

    Though I think he meant to sound like he meant British, and hoped not to be asked if he really did.
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    So we could have Scotland twinned with East Germany ? I wouldn't say that would do much for Scotland divvie.

    I support swapping Scotland for Flanders, Scotland would become half of Belgium along with the chippy Walloons, we would get all that nice beer.

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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Scott_P said:

    He never mentions Britain or British at all

    The line was "local"

    Do you really think he was describing Romanians as local?

    "The Labour leader said his Government would introduce an Immigration Bill in its first year to get employers to hire local workers "
    Is your nearest Kebab shop "local", even if the staff aren't British?
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    "Those parts of Germany formerly part of the German Democratic Republic", then , with the possible exception of that part of the DDR which was East Berlin (for which I haven't seen the figures).

    That would be remarkably imprecise language then, as East Berlin was never formally part of the DDR. Berlin was occupied territory until unification.

    "East Germany and the Eastern Bloc diplomatically recognised East Berlin as the capital city of the German Democratic Republic, but the Western Allies disputed said recognition, considering the entire city of Berlin an occupied territory governed by the martial law of the Allied Control Council. According to Margarete Feinstein, East Berlin's status as the capital was largely unrecognized by the West and most Third World countries. In practice, the ACC’s authority was rendered moot by the Cold War, and the East German government ignored the legal restrictions on integration of East Berlin into the GDR."
This discussion has been closed.