The flaws in this system are becoming more apparent by the minute.
If the far left had lent some of their votes to the Thatcherite FDP it might have given the former a sniff at power in a couple of years time, for example.
I realise that there is no such thing as a shy Kipper but AfD are more Cameroon than Faragist. This would suggest their voters could demonstrate a dignified and well-mannered reticence when asked to reveal their votes.
Is it possible that the exit polls are understating AfD?
Would Merkel prefer a tiny overall majority or a grane coalition?
I would have thought a grand coalition as the SDP would be in a similar position as the LibDems are here.
Whether the SDP would want that is another matter.
They'd be weaker, because they couldn't be sure they could vote down the CDU/CSU.
BTW Sorry for not responding re Mark Carney earlier - I was off doing other things. The problem is that you can't pin down the job description to a specific set of tests. Basically his job is to use his judgement to 'do the right thing', depending on what happens.
Has this other foreign political development, apparantly reported in the Sunday Times, been commented upon yet:
"Louise Mensch, the former Tory MP, has revealed that she has applied for American citizenship, sparking speculation that she may be considering a foray into American politics.”
I would have thought that the SPD would want to remain in opposition, even if it was a fairly constructive opposition. Being in Coalition with a party with an absolute majority, however small, ultimately means having no leverage and yet still taking some of the blame.
Plus they have just had the second worst result in their history, they need to go off and lick some wounds and find some new leadership.
We might be talking at cross purposes here. If it is a CDU/SDP or CDU/Green coalition, I would hazard that there is less chance of Cameron gaining any support in repatriating powers such as the working time directive etc.
I was not giving an opinion in favour of renewable energy, something I have reservations about.
Has this other foreign political development, apparantly reported in the Sunday Times, been commented upon yet:
"Louise Mensch, the former Tory MP, has revealed that she has applied for American citizenship, sparking speculation that she may be considering a foray into American politics.”
This speculation is backed up by Louise's tweet today attacking Ed Miliband. She was clearly using Miliband's unpopularity in Washington and NYC to boost her own credibility state-side.
Has this other foreign political development, apparantly reported in the Sunday Times, been commented upon yet:
"Louise Mensch, the former Tory MP, has revealed that she has applied for American citizenship, sparking speculation that she may be considering a foray into American politics.”
This speculation is backed up by Louise's tweet today attacking Ed Miliband. She was clearly using Miliband's unpopularity in Washington and NYC to boost her own credibility state-side.
That's an argument for having a referendum this side of a UK election. He might as well do it sooner rather than later if he is not going to get any concessions.
Would Merkel prefer a tiny overall majority or a grane coalition?
I would have thought a grand coalition as the SDP would be in a similar position as the LibDems are here.
Whether the SDP would want that is another matter.
They'd be weaker, because they couldn't be sure they could vote down the CDU/CSU.
BTW Sorry for not responding re Mark Carney earlier - I was off doing other things. The problem is that you can't pin down the job description to a specific set of tests. Basically his job is to use his judgement to 'do the right thing', depending on what happens.
No need to apologise RN.
While I understand your point this merely highlights the difference between 'them' and 'us'. Tens of millions of ordinary employees use their judgement to 'do the right thing' depending on what happens but they can still lose their jobs through no fault of their own irrespective of how successful they are at their level within their organisation.
But for a few thousand 'executives' its guranteeed contracts, guaranteed payments, guaranteed payoffs irrespective of how successful they are (on whatever metric their performance is judged).
Now if there was a sense of honour among the executive class then this might not be a problem. But its a long time since I heard of any executive resigning from having failed or any executive who didn't try to grab as much money as possible.
We have created an executive class which far from being willing to go down the ship guarantees itself a place in a lifeboat - and a lifeboat well stocked with champagne and caviare at that.
But they could still lose, because they've lost the FDP...
Go figure...
Yes, the FDP will henceforth probably drop out as a 'major' party.
Possible vacuum to be filled by someone else?
Plus I don't think the Germans will like 16% of their people having no MPs (up from 6% last time). Possible further changes in their daft electoral system?
That's an argument for having a referendum this side of a UK election. He might as well do it sooner rather than later if he is not going to get any concessions.
It would be great if the new German Party told Cameron to sod off .. then we could all vote for getting out.. job done
I think you're getting rather ahead of yourself there. Firstly there might not be a grand coalition. Secondly even if there is, so what? That's only one minor item in the whole picture, and Merkel would have the whip hand. And thirdly, Der Spiegel thinks a grand coalition would actually make a restructuring of the EU easier, not harder:
A grand coalition would also, thanks to its overwhelming majority in parliament, strengthen Merkel's hand in managing the euro crisis because it would lessen the threat posed by backbench rebellions against future European rescue measures.
With the SPD in her coalition, she would no longer face a hostile Bundesrat, Germany's upper legislative chamber, and she may even be able to muster two-thirds majorities needed to change the German constitution if future changes to Europe's institutions should warrant that.
But they could still lose, because they've lost the FDP...
Go figure...
Yes, the FDP will henceforth probably drop out as a 'major' party.
Possible vacuum to be filled by someone else?
Plus I don't think the Germans will like 16% of their people having no MPs (up from 6% last time). Possible further changes in their daft electoral system?
So glad we've always kept with FPTP rather than going down the "daft" route of Proportional Representation.
But they could still lose, because they've lost the FDP...
Go figure...
Yes, the FDP will henceforth probably drop out as a 'major' party.
Possible vacuum to be filled by someone else?
Plus I don't think the Germans will like 16% of their people having no MPs (up from 6% last time). Possible further changes in their daft electoral system?
So glad we've always kept with FPTP rather than going down the "daft" route of Proportional Representation.
MMP may be daft (remember it combines the worst of FPTP and PR)
FPT: thanks, Mr. M. Regarding the second of your potential bets, that was looking extremely good. Would've been hedgeable, if you're that way inclined.
Reasonably happy from a betting perspective. The weekend was flat, but (not tipped due to lack of money available) I made a little backing Grosjean to be top 3 in qualifying. My other potential bets (Vettel for pole and Hulkenberg to reach Q3) would've been a win and a loss, and all three would've been half a stake positive. Didn't back Vettel (misjudgement) due to loathing of such odds, but for Grosjean and Hulkenberg the odds just weren't good enough.
what is the the Institute of Directors? And is the Director of the Istitute of Directors a a Director of Directors?
It's a rather odd beast: a mixture of a private club, an organisation offering meeting rooms, lectures and so on in central London, and a pressure group which claims (with some justice) to speak for business, especially smaller and medium-sized businesses. (The CBI is more representative of very big corporations).
One of our "friends of the firm" at work is a foreign policy advisor to the CDU. His view going into the election was that Merkel was keen on a Grand Coalition. In his view, the (mildly) more eurosceptic FDP was holding back Merkel's more pre-European tendencies. In a grand coalition, he felt would see a revival of the "debt redemption" fund idea, where all government debts from EU members above 80% of GDP are put into a special 'jointly and severally liable pot'.
There is one interesting lesson of this election - assuming that AfD remains stubbornly below 5% - and that is that splitting the vote on the Eurosceptic right does not lead to electoral success.
@Philip_Thomson, there is no perfect electoral system. All have flaws of varying degrees. I worry - for example - that under FPTP you could have one party (probably Labour!) having a majority of the seats on as little as 25% of the vote (if the right continues to fragment).
But they could still lose, because they've lost the FDP...
Go figure...
Yes, the FDP will henceforth probably drop out as a 'major' party.
Possible vacuum to be filled by someone else?
Plus I don't think the Germans will like 16% of their people having no MPs (up from 6% last time). Possible further changes in their daft electoral system?
So glad we've always kept with FPTP rather than going down the "daft" route of Proportional Representation.
MMP may be daft (remember it combines the worst of FPTP and PR)
but FPTP alone is criminally insane...
FPTP alone works very well and I don't see any major fault in it that doesn't exist in some form in one PR system or another.
93.2% of voters who voted for a party have at least one representative elected which seems to me means we have less than half as many as the Germans "unrepresented".
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
@Philip_Thomson, there is no perfect electoral system. All have flaws of varying degrees. I worry - for example - that under FPTP you could have one party (probably Labour!) having a majority of the seats on as little as 25% of the vote (if the right continues to fragment).
I find that incredibly unlikely but would still prefer that to PR.
93.2% of voters who voted for a party have at least one representative elected which seems to me means we have less than half as many as the Germans "unrepresented".
Until you go down to the constituency level, and find that the majority of voters are not, in fact, represented...
I thought the Institute of Directors was a lobbying group that urged the state to stay out of their members wage discussions and in return demands that taxpayers subsidise their employees wages.
The former certainly, but I don't recall them campaigning for the latter.
Would Merkel prefer a tiny overall majority or a grane coalition?
I would have thought a grand coalition as the SDP would be in a similar position as the LibDems are here.
Whether the SDP would want that is another matter.
They'd be weaker, because they couldn't be sure they could vote down the CDU/CSU.
BTW Sorry for not responding re Mark Carney earlier - I was off doing other things. The problem is that you can't pin down the job description to a specific set of tests. Basically his job is to use his judgement to 'do the right thing', depending on what happens.
No need to apologise RN.
While I understand your point this merely highlights the difference between 'them' and 'us'. Tens of millions of ordinary employees use their judgement to 'do the right thing' depending on what happens but they can still lose their jobs through no fault of their own irrespective of how successful they are at their level within their organisation.
But for a few thousand 'executives' its guranteeed contracts, guaranteed payments, guaranteed payoffs irrespective of how successful they are (on whatever metric their performance is judged).
Now if there was a sense of honour among the executive class then this might not be a problem. But its a long time since I heard of any executive resigning from having failed or any executive who didn't try to grab as much money as possible.
We have created an executive class which far from being willing to go down the ship guarantees itself a place in a lifeboat - and a lifeboat well stocked with champagne and caviare at that.
Standing ovation. Spot on. Whether in public or private sector we have a self-perpetuating executive class whose pay, pensions and perks bear no relationship to their abilities. They move cosseted and privileged from post to post, and their main aim is feathering their own nests. From banks through BBC, to big business and the charity sector they suck wealth from taxpayers and shareholders, and are rarely if ever forced to take real responsibility for the many and frequent bad decisions they make.
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
I thought the Institute of Directors was a lobbying group that urged the state to stay out of their members wage discussions and in return demands that taxpayers subsidise their employees wages.
You obviously haven't dined at 116 Pall Mall, tim.
Perhaps you are thinking of the Reform Club a few doors up?
93.2% of voters who voted for a party have at least one representative elected which seems to me means we have less than half as many as the Germans "unrepresented".
Until you go down to the constituency level, and find that the majority of electors are not, in fact, represented...
Not true. At a constituency level you find that every single elector is in fact represented. They may not like who their representative is but that is representative democracy in action. I would be surprised if MPs or ex-MPs like NPXMP turned away at the door anyone who didn't vote for them last time when doing constituency work.
Removing the constituency link entirely means in a PR system you can get a situation whereby someone genuinely has no representatives as there is no local representative to turn to and no party representative either.
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
So, you would support schools that teach intelligent design alongside evolution?
Can anyone explain why SPD/Linke/Greens if they get top end of the estimates ie 303seats couldnt control the Bundestag? without CDU/CSU. Is that even a remote possibility?
Can anyone explain why SPD/Linke/Greens if they get top end of the estimates ie 303seats couldnt control the Bundestag? without CDU/CSU. Is that even a remote possibility?
The Euro would dead by midday on Monday if that happened, BJO.
Start shorting it now if you think this will be the outcome.
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
So, you would support schools that teach intelligent design alongside evolution?
No. I would support the state laying down the groundwork of curriculum that must be taught and doing end of term/year examinations to measure and maintain standards, doing inspections to make sure that standards are maintained and then getting out of the way of the day to day operations and letting privately run schools implement this in their own methods. Those that fail should be allowed to fail and be closed down.
Intelligent design would go against the curriculum - I would however be OK to them teaching religious education in a non-scientific setting. As already happens in state schools.
I believe that SPD don't get along well with Linke because of the former SPDERS who followed Lafontaine there and that Greens don't get along well with Linke because 2/3 of them are former East communists from SED.
@Philip_Thomson, there is no perfect electoral system. All have flaws of varying degrees. I worry - for example - that under FPTP you could have one party (probably Labour!) having a majority of the seats on as little as 25% of the vote (if the right continues to fragment).
I find that incredibly unlikely but would still prefer that to PR.
I agree with you regarding the benefits of FPTP. However, it is important to recognise that if the proportion of votes that goes to "the top two" continues to fall then we run the risk of getting an election result that does not reflect the will of the people.
Let us imagine that at the next election, UKIP gets 15% and the Liberal Democrats 10% (not an unlikely outcome, if we're going to be honest). Yet, it's possible for the Libs to get 25 or even 30 seats and UKIP to get none. I would consider that a travesty.
If we go forward 7 years, it's possible we could have an election where UKIP was on 20%, and the Libs on 15%; perhaps the Greens got 5%. In this circumstance, you could see both Labour and the Conservatives just below 30% - would you consider it to be the will of the people if the second placed party, with 65% of the voters to the right of them, had a majority of the seats in the House of Commons? I would not.
Yet, I would also add, I haven't seen any system I prefer yet. I abhor Alternative Vote. I abhor Party Lists. Perhaps PR^2 or STV in multi-member constituencies is the best way. Whatever, I think that if voting patterns continue to fragment, we will need to reconsider the what the best voting system is.
93.2% of voters who voted for a party have at least one representative elected which seems to me means we have less than half as many as the Germans "unrepresented".
Until you go down to the constituency level, and find that the majority of electors are not, in fact, represented...
Not true. At a constituency level you find that every single elector is in fact represented. They may not like who their representative is but that is representative democracy in action. I would be surprised if MPs or ex-MPs like NPXMP turned away at the door anyone who didn't vote for them last time when doing constituency work.
Removing the constituency link entirely means in a PR system you can get a situation whereby someone genuinely has no representatives as there is no local representative to turn to and no party representative either.
STV covers that. Around 80%-90% of voters get both their first choice MP and their first choice party. PR^2 wouldn't be far behind.
(One of) the problems with the German system is the 5% national threshold. It's too high. In future I suspect it will be lowered, or applied separately to each Land...
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
So, you would support schools that teach intelligent design alongside evolution?
No. I would support the state laying down the groundwork of curriculum that must be taught and doing end of term/year examinations to measure and maintain standards, doing inspections to make sure that standards are maintained and then getting out of the way of the day to day operations and letting privately run schools implement this in their own methods. Those that fail should be allowed to fail and be closed down.
Intelligent design would go against the curriculum - I would however be OK to them teaching religious education in a non-scientific setting. As already happens in state schools.
That's a fair comment. What about if a school taught what it believed the correct role of women in society was?
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
Junior,
One doubts that few individuals actually pay-their-way. No doubt your secular expenditure is used on useful senior-citizen cards, health-care and sundry expenses you choose not to book against yourself and your family. Like most - if not all - of the UK: Igorance is bliss....
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
So, you would support schools that teach intelligent design alongside evolution?
No. I would support the state laying down the groundwork of curriculum that must be taught and doing end of term/year examinations to measure and maintain standards, doing inspections to make sure that standards are maintained and then getting out of the way of the day to day operations and letting privately run schools implement this in their own methods. Those that fail should be allowed to fail and be closed down.
Intelligent design would go against the curriculum - I would however be OK to them teaching religious education in a non-scientific setting. As already happens in state schools.
That's a fair comment. What about if a school taught what it believed the correct role of women in society was?
It is inevitable that teachers teach their own beliefs somewhat to the children as well as the curriculum. It already happens in state schools. At least with free choice people can choose what sort of school they send their children to rather than it just being forced on you by postcode. I for one would not send my kids to a school that taught that women were secondary and I can't imagine many others doing so either.
The total will rise due to overhangs (she should have a lot of those!), and balance seats, but the relative position ought to stay the same, assuming the votes don't change.
Who knows what the actual size of the Bundestag will be?
298 is 2 short if the Parliament is 598. ARD is not projecting overhangs but, as you say, there should be a lot of them
Sorry, you're right. ;-)
IIUC, the forecasts are based initially on the 598 Bundestag (knowing these will only be provisional calculations).
Once the overhangs have all been determined, the size of the Bundestag is scaled up to cancel the effect of them out, then the PR applied again to the new sized parliament...
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
IIRC one of the major means of discrimination in N Ireland was by asking job applicants where they went to school. The answer "St Whatever's" mean that they were Catholic; Antrim (or whatever) County High meant they were Protestant, and an employer could discriminate on the basis of their prejudices. Are we creating a situation where an employer can ask the same question on the mainland, and discriminate as a result?
@olafcramme Shocking #SPD result won't cheer UK #Labour: German version of living standard crisis flopped vs message of economic stability & continuity.
@olafcramme Shocking #SPD result won't cheer UK #Labour: German version of living standard crisis flopped vs message of economic stability & continuity.
Mrs Merkel has a much better record than Team Cameron.
In Athens, Helena Smith says the prospect of a grand coalition (CDU+SPD=GOVT) has met with a certain amount of relief, und zwar:
Tassos Telloglou, veteran interpreter of German affairs:
“The most likely scenario, that of a grand coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats, is also the most positive scenario for Greece. The SDP has put much more emphasis on the policies of growth.”
Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, Greek-German MEP
“There are two pieces of good news from this election for Greece. The first is that it looks very likely that the alliance with the FDP won’t continue. The other is that the SDP, which has the best views regarding policies of austerity and has even talked of a Marshall plan will likely join forces to form a government and if that is the case I would not expect austerity to continue as we have seen it. A grand coalition would be good for Greece. The bad news is that the anti-Greek Alternative fuer Deutschland party may enter parliament and if that is the case it will add to the pressure on Merkel to take a tough stance on the question of helping out the south and especially Greece.” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
I'm an atheist and totally disagree. Both this and the last government have tried to move power away from central government and back towards parents. I would support a completely "voucher" style system (like in Sweden) where the parents can choose which school they want to send their kids too. If parents choose a Christian or Muslim or Jewish school why should that be no more valid than a unionised socialist state run school?
IIRC one of the major means of discrimination in N Ireland was by asking job applicants where they went to school. The answer "St Whatever's" mean that they were Catholic; Antrim (or whatever) County High meant they were Protestant, and an employer could discriminate on the basis of their prejudices. Are we creating a situation where an employer can ask the same question on the mainland, and discriminate as a result?
Are we anticipating the vast majority of people to attend such schools and exclusively because of religion? And if that is where most parents want to send their kids (and not seeing any evidence it is) why shouldn't they?
Not all people who at present attend Anglican schools do so because they are Christian let alone protestant. Many do so because they believe it is a well run school.
"Large firms would have to train local apprentices if they recruited workers from outside the EU."
How do you define apprentice? The chance of would-be Chinese plumbers coming to the UK are tiny. Bulgarians and Rumanians wouldn't trigger that clause anyway.
Are the number of MPs based on PR or not ? Even with overhang.
The overhang has been effectively neutralised.
Parties still keep their overhangs, but the Bundestag is expanded and balance seats awarded to minor parties to compensate.
Result: "winner's bonus" due to overhangs effectively disappears. Hung parliaments and/or tiny majorities become more likely, as we're seeing tonight...
"Large firms would have to train local apprentices if they recruited workers from outside the EU."
How do you define apprentice? The chance of would-be Chinese plumbers coming to the UK are tiny. Bulgarians and Rumanians wouldn't trigger that clause anyway.
So isn't it meaningless tosh?
Just curious.
Apprentice – A term so corrupted from the original that today it is almost meaningless.
Local – Equally meaningless as it would encompass all 27 EU countries.
Comments
I would have thought a grand coalition as the SDP would be in a similar position as the LibDems are here.
Whether the SDP would want that is another matter.
If the far left had lent some of their votes to the Thatcherite FDP it might have given the former a sniff at power in a couple of years time, for example.
Is it possible that the exit polls are understating AfD?
But they could still lose, because they've lost the FDP...
Go figure...
BTW Sorry for not responding re Mark Carney earlier - I was off doing other things. The problem is that you can't pin down the job description to a specific set of tests. Basically his job is to use his judgement to 'do the right thing', depending on what happens.
"Louise Mensch, the former Tory MP, has revealed that she has applied for American citizenship, sparking speculation that she may be considering a foray into American politics.”
Plus they have just had the second worst result in their history, they need to go off and lick some wounds and find some new leadership.
I was not giving an opinion in favour of renewable energy, something I have reservations about.
It was tim who first picked up on the tweet.
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/rekordverlust-bei-bundestagswahl-fdp-erleidet-historisches-desaster-1.1777647
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2428958/Muslim-school-banned-pupils-singing-reading-fairy-tales-hardliners-took-control-ousted-headmaster-deputy.html
Talk about 'While England Slept'.
While I understand your point this merely highlights the difference between 'them' and 'us'. Tens of millions of ordinary employees use their judgement to 'do the right thing' depending on what happens but they can still lose their jobs through no fault of their own irrespective of how successful they are at their level within their organisation.
But for a few thousand 'executives' its guranteeed contracts, guaranteed payments, guaranteed payoffs irrespective of how successful they are (on whatever metric their performance is judged).
Now if there was a sense of honour among the executive class then this might not be a problem. But its a long time since I heard of any executive resigning from having failed or any executive who didn't try to grab as much money as possible.
We have created an executive class which far from being willing to go down the ship guarantees itself a place in a lifeboat - and a lifeboat well stocked with champagne and caviare at that.
Possible vacuum to be filled by someone else?
Plus I don't think the Germans will like 16% of their people having no MPs (up from 6% last time). Possible further changes in their daft electoral system?
A grand coalition would also, thanks to its overwhelming majority in parliament, strengthen Merkel's hand in managing the euro crisis because it would lessen the threat posed by backbench rebellions against future European rescue measures.
With the SPD in her coalition, she would no longer face a hostile Bundesrat, Germany's upper legislative chamber, and she may even be able to muster two-thirds majorities needed to change the German constitution if future changes to Europe's institutions should warrant that.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/merkel-wins-third-term-in-general-election-exit-polls-suggest-a-923755.html
This is the biggest gain for a sitting Chancellor since Adenaur in 1953.
Maybe a more likely model for 2020 than 2015? Can't quite see Cameron being as dominant as this by then, whatever the quality of the opposition.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
Forsa's exit poll put them on 5% originally but I can't find out whether that's also being updated.
but FPTP alone is criminally insane...
F1: post-race analysis is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/singapore-post-race-analysis.html
FPT: thanks, Mr. M. Regarding the second of your potential bets, that was looking extremely good. Would've been hedgeable, if you're that way inclined.
Reasonably happy from a betting perspective. The weekend was flat, but (not tipped due to lack of money available) I made a little backing Grosjean to be top 3 in qualifying. My other potential bets (Vettel for pole and Hulkenberg to reach Q3) would've been a win and a loss, and all three would've been half a stake positive. Didn't back Vettel (misjudgement) due to loathing of such odds, but for Grosjean and Hulkenberg the odds just weren't good enough.
There is one interesting lesson of this election - assuming that AfD remains stubbornly below 5% - and that is that splitting the vote on the Eurosceptic right does not lead to electoral success.
Thanks.
93.2% of voters who voted for a party have at least one representative elected which seems to me means we have less than half as many as the Germans "unrepresented".
I do not understand why a single penny of my taxes goes to religious schools - whether Christian, Muslim or Jewish. If parents want their children educated outside the regular school system, they should pay for it out of their own pockets.
ARD/ZDF
CDU 42.4/42.5%
SPD 25.4/25.9%
Linke 8.3/8.4%
Greens 8.2/8.0%
AfD 4.9/4.9%
FDP 4.5/4.6%
ARD/ZDF
CDU-CSU 301-304
SPD 180/185
Linke 59/60
Greens 58/57
Perhaps you are thinking of the Reform Club a few doors up?
Removing the constituency link entirely means in a PR system you can get a situation whereby someone genuinely has no representatives as there is no local representative to turn to and no party representative either.
CDU
CDU!
The article talks of "the era of Merkelism"
Start shorting it now if you think this will be the outcome.
Intelligent design would go against the curriculum - I would however be OK to them teaching religious education in a non-scientific setting. As already happens in state schools.
Let us imagine that at the next election, UKIP gets 15% and the Liberal Democrats 10% (not an unlikely outcome, if we're going to be honest). Yet, it's possible for the Libs to get 25 or even 30 seats and UKIP to get none. I would consider that a travesty.
If we go forward 7 years, it's possible we could have an election where UKIP was on 20%, and the Libs on 15%; perhaps the Greens got 5%. In this circumstance, you could see both Labour and the Conservatives just below 30% - would you consider it to be the will of the people if the second placed party, with 65% of the voters to the right of them, had a majority of the seats in the House of Commons? I would not.
Yet, I would also add, I haven't seen any system I prefer yet. I abhor Alternative Vote. I abhor Party Lists. Perhaps PR^2 or STV in multi-member constituencies is the best way. Whatever, I think that if voting patterns continue to fragment, we will need to reconsider the what the best voting system is.
(One of) the problems with the German system is the 5% national threshold. It's too high. In future I suspect it will be lowered, or applied separately to each Land...
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Sir Brad is 7/4 for the Men's ITT in Firenze. He is in great time trialling form and I think he will beat Tony Martin.
Errr, because the SPD and Der Linke hate each other much more than the SPD and the CDU.
2 seats short of absolute majority
looks to be live streaming tv on the German election.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
Merkel now forecast as a minority...
One doubts that few individuals actually pay-their-way. No doubt your secular expenditure is used on useful senior-citizen cards, health-care and sundry expenses you choose not to book against yourself and your family. Like most - if not all - of the UK: Igorance is bliss....
The total will rise due to overhangs (she should have a lot of those!), and balance seats, but the relative position ought to stay the same, assuming the votes don't change.
Who knows what the actual size of the Bundestag will be?
>700?
...no more handouts
...reduce taxes
...viva the Union!
IIUC, the forecasts are based initially on the 598 Bundestag (knowing these will only be provisional calculations).
Once the overhangs have all been determined, the size of the Bundestag is scaled up to cancel the effect of them out, then the PR applied again to the new sized parliament...
IIRC one of the major means of discrimination in N Ireland was by asking job applicants where they went to school. The answer "St Whatever's" mean that they were Catholic; Antrim (or whatever) County High meant they were Protestant, and an employer could discriminate on the basis of their prejudices.
Are we creating a situation where an employer can ask the same question on the mainland, and discriminate as a result?
CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition
CSD/CSU minority
CSD/CSU-Grüne coalition
Look like only options. Which do the knowledgeable posters think most likely?
Shocking #SPD result won't cheer UK #Labour: German version of living standard crisis flopped vs message of economic stability & continuity.
Straubing in Bayern
Alois Rainer (CSU) elected
Turnout 64.4 (-0.8)
CSU 61.2 (+5.8)
SPD 17.6 (-4.9)
FW 3.5
AfD 3.3
Greens 3.2 (-0.7)
ODP 2.9
Linke 2.5 (-2.4)
FDP 2.4 (-5.4)
Pirates 1.7
NPD 1.7
Second vote
CSU 57.8 (+7.7)
SPD 16.1 (+1.9)
FDP 4.2 (-9.5)
AfD 3.9
Greens 3.9 (-1.4)
FW 3.8
Linke 3.0 (-3.5)
ODP 1.7
Pirates 1.5
NPD 1.4
BP 1.3
http://youtu.be/-01_Wj8yTLo
In Athens, Helena Smith says the prospect of a grand coalition (CDU+SPD=GOVT) has met with a certain amount of relief, und zwar:
Tassos Telloglou, veteran interpreter of German affairs:
“The most likely scenario, that of a grand coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats, is also the most positive scenario for Greece. The SDP has put much more emphasis on the policies of growth.”
Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, Greek-German MEP
“There are two pieces of good news from this election for Greece. The first is that it looks very likely that the alliance with the FDP won’t continue. The other is that the SDP, which has the best views regarding policies of austerity and has even talked of a Marshall plan will likely join forces to form a government and if that is the case I would not expect austerity to continue as we have seen it. A grand coalition would be good for Greece. The bad news is that the anti-Greek Alternative fuer Deutschland party may enter parliament and if that is the case it will add to the pressure on Merkel to take a tough stance on the question of helping out the south and especially Greece.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
Not all people who at present attend Anglican schools do so because they are Christian let alone protestant. Many do so because they believe it is a well run school.
Kam' dun' and ava bev', the night is still young....
"Large firms would have to train local apprentices if they recruited workers from outside the EU."
How do you define apprentice? The chance of would-be Chinese plumbers coming to the UK are tiny. Bulgarians and Rumanians wouldn't trigger that clause anyway.
So isn't it meaningless tosh?
Just curious.
Quite a few, I'd guess.
LDs 5%
Lab 27%
All about the warmup for GE2015!
Tim making the excuses for Labour defeat now!
Tim = Palace
http://www3.braunschweig.de/wahlen/ergebnis_bw13/mobile.php?site=ergebnis&wahl=312&gebiet=1&gebietx=0&gebietTyp=3&gebietx=0&sitz=0
Parties still keep their overhangs, but the Bundestag is expanded and balance seats awarded to minor parties to compensate.
Result: "winner's bonus" due to overhangs effectively disappears.
Hung parliaments and/or tiny majorities become more likely, as we're seeing tonight...
http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/ergebnisse/status/
Local – Equally meaningless as it would encompass all 27 EU countries.
Conversely, win above 5% nationally, and you still may win (list) seats in a Land where you scored less than 5%...