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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Analysis of the Q1 local by-elections finds CON struggling to benefit from the almost total collapse if the UKIP vote
The real story of the local by-elections in the first quarter (and I suspect one that will be repeated in just five weeks time) is the collapse of UKIP losing 90% of it’s vote compared to last time and showing that it’s not just UKIP voters now voting Con, but UKIP candidates not even standing as UKIP but instead as “Name of local area” candidates.
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What I find interesting for May is that both the Tory and Labour vote is likely to be up significantly compared with the last time because of the collapse of support for both UKIP and (to a lesser extent) the Lib Dems. I expect, on current polling, the Tory vote to be up slightly more than Labour creating a theoretical swing in their direction. But I also expect that swing to be completely swamped by more powerful regional effects with Labour doing really well in London but not at all well in the midlands, for example. How that will shake out in seats is anyone's guess.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/mar/30/fbi-questions-ted-malloch-trump-campaign-figure-and-farage-ally
Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield. Pretty similar picture across the board, with the purples falling faster than a concrete donkey.
In a Passover message, he said it was easy to denounce anti-Semitism abroad but sometimes harder to see it closer to home.
It came as Jewish Labour peer Lord Winston said Mr Corbyn had "encouraged and endorsed" anti-Semites.
Speaking to the BBC, a Labour Party spokeswoman said the letter was not being ignored but that suspending Christine Shawcroft would not be a personal decision for Jeremy Corbyn as there were formal processes for such matters.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43597132
Here's a concrete example of where Corbyn is winning the argument.
My sister recently had her house done and she needed some work done on the outside water pipe, the only provider is Thames water, they quoted £5.5k for the work. She obviously didn't want to pay, so she asked someone who would know what it should cost. They said there is currently a regulation change coming in that will force Thames water to charge less for what she needs done, she told Thames water and they confirmed that if she waits until April the price will drop to just over £1.5k for the same water issue fix. They refused to budge on the price until after April. They can't move into the property until this is done. They've been waiting since January.
She's not naturally to the left, my family is fairly right wing, but when she saw Corbyn propose to renationalise Thames Water she's now ready to listen to him even though she disagrees with most of his platform.
We've got to a stage where our "free" markets are so broken that reasonable people are being driven to unreasonable ideas. The government must act now on the broken utilities market or they will continue to lose voters like my sister and my brother in law.
https://twitter.com/reporterboy/status/979715407811575808
Unfortunately, just because some markets need changing (better protection against hostile takeovers, for example, as well as new problems caused by the internet) that doesn't mean the Corbyn alternative isn't worse. Of course, the current problems are apparent to everyone, whereas the problems to come under Corbyn (should it happen) are ephemeral. It's why it's critical the Conservatives both get to grips with the problems and (Labour sensible types too) they staunchly defend free markets and capitalism.
When capitalism gets stuff wrong, you end up in a situation like your sister is suffering. When socialism gets stuff wrong, people have to break into zoos to kill the exhibits just so they don't starve to death.
A rocket launch in seven minutes or so. Sadly there will be no landing attempt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mp0TW8vkCLg
You’re right that, up against Corbyn, we are going to have to explain capitalism again from first principles, the current younger generation don’t remember when it took BT months to install a phone line and the smelly trains with slam doors broke down all the time - when their staff weren’t on strike.
Gone are the days of fear of pulling off into a town you have never visited and getting lost.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43590387
Most people accept that the Labour movement is not stuffed with anti-semites - but they also see that Corbyn's actions/inactions in this area are setting a tone which has allowed it to become more openly expressed.
Unless and until Corbyn accepts that he has some personal responsibility for this, it won't go away.
It looks as though they're using up their stock of Block IV and earlier rockets, before they move onto the hopefully final Block V next month. I don't think they've flown any rocket more than twice so far, so that's starting to look suspiciously as a limit for that hardware version.
The likes of the nationalized BT and Post Office of old wouldnt have given us those things.
The most worrying thing about corbynonomics was all the we must kill the city in order for proper businesses to succeed...How am I supposed to get my startup idea funded if jezza has killed off all the evil capitalist venture capitalists? Is my business not a proper business worth supportong?
I'm sure there are plenty of good arguments against nationalising things like water and trains.
I'm not sure iPhones or social media is it.
You and I know it’s bonkers, but we have to keep explaining it to others that communism wasn’t wonderful.
@FrancisUrquhart Or the current system - as explained in Max’s post - is giving under 40 voters legitimate areas of grievance. Maybe under 40s have calculated that stagnating wages and difficulty getting on the property ladder are much more important drawbacks in comparison to getting the positives of amazon prime, an iPhone and Netflix.
Nationally they got 17% in 2014 so will see a big collapse in May, the Tories certainly need to take most of that if they are to overhaul the two per cent Labour lead last time the wards up this year were up
This perception of anti-semitism is not about Labour as a party - it is about the change in the party since he and his cohort took over. Sure, there were problems before - but they are more prominent now and that is due to the 'mood music' coming from the top.
Corbyn refuses to see it and thus the situation will persist.
This requires radical action and Jezza the Radical isn't prepared to act.
Then tweeting, WhatsApping and Instagraming that they are deleting Facebook...
"Construction output was estimated to have decreased by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017, revised upwards from negative 0.7% in the second estimate of GDP.
With the inclusion of VAT turnover data, there have been upward revisions to construction in Quarter 1, Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2017. This has resulted in the negative growth reported for Quarter 3 2017 in the second estimate of GDP now showing positive growth of 0.4%.
The annual growth in 2017 of 5.7% is revised upwards from the 5.1% growth reported in the second estimate of GDP and is stronger than the 3.9% growth seen in 2016. This strength reflects strong growth in construction output in late 2016 and the first quarter of 2017."
I am very surprised, however, that the BoP changes did not bring growth for Q4 back up to 0.5. It seems that there were offsetting falls in business services. Disappointing, particularly when business investment is now estimated to have grown by 2.4% last year.
Every one of these things will get significantly worse with Corbyn in charge. Every time it’s been tried anywhere in the world, it’s failed and failed miserably, with widespread poverty for all but the few elites running the country. People often say somewhat flippantly that if a certain politician gets elected they’ll leave the country, but if Corbyn gets in and starts enacting his plan then people will leave. Lots of people. The net contributors, those whose taxes pay for everything he wants to give away for free.
And Jews of course, why would they want to live in a country where the government doesn’t care about racist abuse they receive?
There's an uncomfortable, perhaps even for some depressing truth coming out on here in recent days. Many of us on here are students of history, many of us on here are old enough to remember how things were.
Those two aspects shape both our notion of how things are and how they should be. They also imbue us with the notion the past has to be respected, remembered and understood for without such what can the future be but a repetition of mistakes already made and opportunities already lost ?
For most people, indeed the majority I would venture and especially for those younger than us, none of this matters. The past is a foreign country, of no relevance to now or indeed tomorrow.
It's that which fuels some of what we see whether it's antipathy to capitalism and opposition to privatised industries through (admittedly) poor experience or the appeals to deeper rooted notions of identity and culture.
To argue the past to those who have no connection to it or respect for it is pointless. Defending the present to the same people is also pointless - they have no other reference. It's that which allows deeper prejudices to re-assert and grow and resists calls for a better yesterday.
I think recent events have shown how much we can trust anything Facebook say to anyone about privacy or data. Your data is their business, a $500bn $400bn business
It is also terrible for consumers with more expensive plans and cost of phones. It is the same with poor internet infrastructure outside of major cities in the US.
Infrastructure is where governments can really drive things eg south korea and Estonia two good examples of being well ahead of the curve when it came to building internet connectivity.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/d28l/pnbp
Looking at those continuous heavy trade deficits of the 2000s it should have been obvious that something wasn't quite right with the UK economy.
It wasn't that long before the 2000s that the trade data would be a major news item and bad figures worthy of political argument.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/j5eb/drsi
The 2016 figure was for some reason (weather ?) very strong so the corresponding months in the preceding and following years "look" weaker.
A problem is that whilst the left have had campaigns going on for years against the privatised utilities, the utilities themselves have not been robust enough in saying why the current system is better for the consumer. Add in the scandals, and the public's mood may well have changed.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/30/antiguan-who-has-lived-59-years-in-britain-told-he-is-in-uk-illegally
Hmmmm....
In the post above you use an expanding economy to present a trade deficit as having fallen ("at least the trade deficit fell in 2017 to its lowest as a percentage of GDP since 1998")
In previous posts @Casino_Royale has presented government expenditure as "investment".
I think from these and similar posts that the post-Brexit Conservative party will coalesce around an economic position that - say - Milliband would not find objectionable. We seem to be hellbent on repeating the mistakes of previous decades.
Labour quietly reinstated at least six councillors who posted anti-Semitic messages online, analysis shows, as a party insider told The Telegraph the complaints process is being manipulated by political factions.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/01/jeremy-corbyn-nationalisation-plans-voters-tired-free-markets
I don’t see good arguments for water, the electrical or gas grids or the railways to be in private ownership.
A case of keeping your passport and other records up to date when you get a second nationality.
There’s been massive investment in water (and rail, and telecoms...) since privatisation, mainly because water infrastructure isn’t competing with healthcare and education for the attention of the Chancellor. The solution to crap service by water companies is allowing more competition, not by entrenching monopoly positions further.
By measuring the trade deficit as a percentage of GDP you allow easier comparison with previous years which would otherwise be rendered increasing ridiculous by the cumulative effects of economic growth and inflation.
The intelligent way to look at this issue is to look at the problems in an industry, and to work out how to fix them - if necessary - without breaking the things they are doing right (if anything). That might be 'a change in ownership structure', a reorganisation, etc, etc.
Instead, it seems in your mind it is a case of rationalising renationalisation. You ask above for good arguments why they should be in private ownership, as if their natural realm is in public ownership.
That's arse about face. Changing ownership structures does not magically fix problems.
We see this with the railways: the answer is apparently renationalisation, and it therefore becomes a case of setting the question so the right answer is reached. In the process, many of the arguments they make are rather (ahem) rubbish.
And Abbott is wrong to describe him as a 'law-abiding British citizen' - as, at this stage, his status is uncertain. He is certainly a long-time resident - but until the situation is resolved, he is, unfortunately, of uncertain status.
It doesn't look like he has done anything wrong. But it is surely right that the Home Office follows proper procedures to examine all similar cases in an even-handed way.
Not everything is about race - unless you are Diane Abbott.
Though she only cares about certain races.
Which is not to say the Home Office don’t mess up, they do, and hopefully they’re learned from their previous mistakes sending nasty letters in error.
As I say, perhaps totally wrong to think that, but most people I know go that way.
"who has “had no status since 2005”.
Then just total coincidence he applies for a passport in 2006 claiming his passport was stolen 15 years prior but he has no proof and there is no record.
https://twitter.com/LaloDagach/status/971448954427727872
The population nowadays is very much more demanding than it was back in the 70s & 80s. That is bound to have an impact on suppliers, even if they were intending to revert to putting the customer last.
It would be an interesting experiment to see how even full-blown communism works out with a sophisticated and demanding population. For example, with the proliferation of social media channels, there is simply no chance of a government controlling the news channels.
Good evening, everyone.
@AlastairMeeks: many thanks for an interesting article on the previous thread.
I totally sympathise with the overly simplistic view that things can't get much worse.
In the case of the railways, AIUI much of the increasing price is due to the requirement of government to put more of the fare burden on the passenger rather than the general taxpayer. This has been the policy of every government since Major, and has been fairly successful even if you consider the massive amounts spent on infrastructure enhancements required to cope with the increasing number of passengers (*)
ISTR the Train Operating Companies only make 3-4% profit (though the figures are complex). That would be soaked up in one year's fare freeze. What I foresee a future government doing with the renationalised utilities is cheating: reducing fees by putting the money onto general taxation rather than the consumer. Which is good for short-term feel-good, but terrible for the economy in the medium and long-term.
(*) Due to the success of privatisation .
This will place those industries in a perilous position - damaging the customers of those industries. Namely - us, the public.
Back in the 1980s, because we had flows into the UK from the assets we held abroad, we could run a 1-1.25% trade deficit, and still have a flat current account. Now, we need to run a 1% trade surplus to achieve the same effect. (It is worth noting that weakness in sterling does ameliorate this somewhat. If sterling goes down, then the value of dividends, rent, etc, from abroad increases.)
I suspect the result would be closer to the modern council where a threadbare force of administrative drones outsources absolutely everything to serco and their ilk.
Ultimately the set of people delivering these services on the front line is literally the same, it's mostly a question of incentives/motivation.
Wow. If you want a clue, look at a country that Corbyn has waxed lyrical about in the past (although for some strange reason not so much in the last couple of years).
Venezuela.
Things can get much, much worse.
"The sorry truth is that the virus of anti-Semitism has infected the British Muslim community
It's a shameful fact that Muslims are not only the victims of racial and religious prejudice but purveyors of it, too."
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2013/03/sorry-truth-virus-anti-semitism-has-infected-british-muslim-community