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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation CON voter poll finds that 50% say Brexit should

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  • The 519 seats the Tories won in 1994.
    Not far off inevitable unfortunately
    Yup, the question is will we outdo the 212 net losses of 1994 or the 295 net losses of 1986.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    The 519 seats the Tories won in 1994.
    Not far off inevitable unfortunately
    Yup, the question is will we outdo the 212 net losses of 1994 or the 295 net losses of 1986.
    Depends on inner v outer London. Suspect Labour will pile up votes in Councils they already have almost every single Councillor on.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,490

    I suspect I’m wasting my breath but the future of the world economy is in Asia and Africa, not Europe.

    Even today 94% of the world population and 80% of its economy is non-EU. We are trading a bit of economic integration with our immediate neighbours for long-term regulatory flexibility, which I think will pay dividends.

    As the UK is not in Asia or Africa, but Europe, how on earth does leaving the EU help? Essentially you're just making a bet that the rest of the EU will fail.

    Even more of the population of the world is non-UK, but no-one would claim that that's an argument for Engxit or Wexit.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline
  • RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline

    RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline
    A few years of momemtum led London Councils is all good for the conservatives
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline
    Thanks :smile:

    We shouldn’t worry too much about whether Labour get 65% or 75% in Islington.
  • I fear he may be right. I get the impression Theresa is loathed in the Metrop. Rightly or wrongly, the feeling is she's too keen to court the easy bumpkin vote instead of making tough choices.
    Metrop = Cavaliers
    Bumpkins = Roundheads
    Discuss
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018

    RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline
    I posted all the 2014 local election results at the time in spreadsheet form. Do you want to see them?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614

    I fear he may be right. I get the impression Theresa is loathed in the Metrop. Rightly or wrongly, the feeling is she's too keen to court the easy bumpkin vote instead of making tough choices.
    Metrop = Cavaliers
    Bumpkins = Roundheads
    Discuss
    That's the wrong way round.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,290
    Dearie me: a lot of very bad tempered exchanges this evening now that we are back on Brexit. It almost makes me long for some more Russian poisoning just so that we can argue about hats. :)

    A genuine question to Mr Meeks: I understand your arguments about the anger felt by those who may/will suffer as a result of a policy ("mad hobbyhorse" in your words) they not only do not support but violently oppose.

    But could not this equally apply the other way around i.e. there are clearly people who felt that their jobs / wages / way of life were threatened by a policy (EU membership / FoM) that they did not support / opposed?

    It is not all that obvious to me that one group's anger is more worthy of notice than another's. Put it another way - indeed as I put it in this header - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/ - both the benefits and costs of being in the EU and of Brexit have not or are not likely to be fairly shared. (And I think they ought to be.)

    You are complaining that those who may lose their jobs because of Brexit are entitled to complain, especially if they did not support the policy. But that must also apply, surely, in reverse i.e. those who lost out - or felt that they did - because of EU membership are equally entitled to complain. The issue now is that there were more of them than anyone realised hence the position the country now finds itself in.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,074

    I fear he may be right. I get the impression Theresa is loathed in the Metrop. Rightly or wrongly, the feeling is she's too keen to court the easy bumpkin vote instead of making tough choices.
    Metrop = Cavaliers
    Bumpkins = Roundheads
    Discuss
    I hope Mrs May manages to keep her head.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614

    RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline

    RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline
    A few years of momemtum led London Councils is all good for the conservatives
    The Tories are hardly excelling in Northamptonshire and Surrey!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited March 2018
    AndyJS said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline
    I posted all the 2014 local election results at the time in spreadsheet form. Do you want to see them?
    Might still have it hang on

    Edit: Nope. Just the 2013 PB competition results ;)
  • I fear he may be right. I get the impression Theresa is loathed in the Metrop. Rightly or wrongly, the feeling is she's too keen to court the easy bumpkin vote instead of making tough choices.
    Metrop = Cavaliers
    Bumpkins = Roundheads
    Discuss
    That's the wrong way round.
    That's interesting. Weren't the Cavaliers the upper class who supported absolute monarchy, the divine right of kings and telling people to pay their taxes and lump it, while the Roundheads were the aspirational middle lower classes who believed in parliament, the rule of law and constraint on power. Mind you I'm old now and my memory of school is fading.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    WIki says 2014 result was Lab 43, Con 30 whereas UKPollingReport says this:

    "More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections."

    Which is very different changes.

    It would be interesting to see the inner vs outer London split.

    "In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway."

    As I say I am yet to understand party performance in 2014 as a baseline
    See page 9 here.

    Share of the Vote in London

    Con 26.1% Lab 37.4% LD 10.2% Green 9.8% UKIP 10%

    Outer London

    Con 29% Lab 33.6% LD 10.0% Green 8.4% UKIP 13.2%

    Inner London

    Con 21% Lab 44.3% LD 10.5% Greens 12.4% UKIP 4.3%

    https://files.datapress.com/london/dataset/borough-council-election-results-2014/London-Borough-Council-Elections-2014.pdf
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,261

    I suspect I’m wasting my breath but the future of the world economy is in Asia and Africa, not Europe.

    Even today 94% of the world population and 80% of its economy is non-EU. We are trading a bit of economic integration with our immediate neighbours for long-term regulatory flexibility, which I think will pay dividends.

    As the UK is not in Asia or Africa, but Europe, how on earth does leaving the EU help? Essentially you're just making a bet that the rest of the EU will fail.

    Even more of the population of the world is non-UK, but no-one would claim that that's an argument for Engxit or Wexit.
    It’s not my fault if you can’t read or understand my post, followed by a total non-sequitur.
  • I fear he may be right. I get the impression Theresa is loathed in the Metrop. Rightly or wrongly, the feeling is she's too keen to court the easy bumpkin vote instead of making tough choices.
    Metrop = Cavaliers
    Bumpkins = Roundheads
    Discuss
    As PB's leading Roundhead I disagree.

    Has always amused my friends that one of life's leading Cavaliers is in fact a Roundhead.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    edited March 2018
    Genuine question: what happens if no "final agreement" is reached in October? (Or agreement not ratified by everyone)

    Isn't it the case that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed?

    In which case, if no final agreement, doesn't that mean that the transition agreement is void?

    Which in turn would mean Brexit in March 2019 with no transition - so out of Single Market etc in March 2019?

    With everyone only having approx four months to prepare???
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556
    Cyclefree said:

    Dearie me: a lot of very bad tempered exchanges this evening now that we are back on Brexit. It almost makes me long for some more Russian poisoning just so that we can argue about hats. :)

    A genuine question to Mr Meeks: I understand your arguments about the anger felt by those who may/will suffer as a result of a policy ("mad hobbyhorse" in your words) they not only do not support but violently oppose.

    But could not this equally apply the other way around i.e. there are clearly people who felt that their jobs / wages / way of life were threatened by a policy (EU membership / FoM) that they did not support / opposed?

    It is not all that obvious to me that one group's anger is more worthy of notice than another's. Put it another way - indeed as I put it in this header - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/12/uniting-the-country/ - both the benefits and costs of being in the EU and of Brexit have not or are not likely to be fairly shared. (And I think they ought to be.)

    You are complaining that those who may lose their jobs because of Brexit are entitled to complain, especially if they did not support the policy. But that must also apply, surely, in reverse i.e. those who lost out - or felt that they did - because of EU membership are equally entitled to complain. The issue now is that there were more of them than anyone realised hence the position the country now finds itself in.

    'People like me should not lose out to people like them'.

    And to some of the more extreme 'people like me' that 'people like them' were losing out previously wasn't a bug but a feature.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I fear he may be right. I get the impression Theresa is loathed in the Metrop. Rightly or wrongly, the feeling is she's too keen to court the easy bumpkin vote instead of making tough choices.
    Metrop = Cavaliers
    Bumpkins = Roundheads
    Discuss
    As PB's leading Roundhead I disagree.

    Has always amused my friends that one of life's leading Cavaliers is in fact a Roundhead.
    Tell George he's doing an excellent job of running the Evening Standard.
  • MikeL said:

    Genuine question: what happens if no "final agreement" is reached in October? (Or agreement not ratified by everyone)

    Isn't it the case that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed?

    In which case, if no final agreement, doesn't that mean that the transition agreement is void?

    Which in turn would mean Brexit in March 2019 with no transition - so out of Single Market etc in March 2019?

    With everyone only having approx four months to prepare???

    Yup, one of Belgium's regional parliaments could bugger this up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,489
    edited March 2018
    Ah I can reconcile the discrepancies in the 2014 London share of the vote figures.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,677
    I wonder if we're going to have a black-haddock event - the government's entire Brexit strategy blown out of the water over fishing rights and no one saw it coming.
  • I wonder if we're going to have a black-haddock event - the government's entire Brexit strategy blown out of the water over fishing rights and no one saw it coming.
    Brexiteers are traitors if they bring the transition agreement down and make Corbyn PM.

    TRAITORS.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,614

    I wonder if we're going to have a black-haddock event - the government's entire Brexit strategy blown out of the water over fishing rights and no one saw it coming.
    Nah, this is a red herring.
  • NEW THREAD

  • MikeL said:

    Genuine question: what happens if no "final agreement" is reached in October? (Or agreement not ratified by everyone)

    Isn't it the case that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed?

    In which case, if no final agreement, doesn't that mean that the transition agreement is void?

    Which in turn would mean Brexit in March 2019 with no transition - so out of Single Market etc in March 2019?

    With everyone only having approx four months to prepare???

    Yup, one of Belgium's regional parliaments could bugger this up.
    And probably will demand a very large focused contribution not to do so. And the Greeks could always demand the Elgin Marbles back too
This discussion has been closed.