JRM as PM? I think he would do a good job. He's intelligent, and principled.
However, at this point there are a number of things that mean that the current odds are not generous enough for me to be tempted.
Firstly, we have no idea when the vacancy as leader of the Conservative Party will appear. If - as we all hope - Brexit is a success, then I cannot see Mrs May standing down before the next General Election. This means that the other candidates in the next Conservative leadership election could be people we've not heard much of yet: Kwasi Kwarteng, or Rory Stewart sping to mind. (And there may be people from the class of 2015 or 2017 that turn out to be very impressive.)
Even if JRM is the best of this bunch, if Mrs May is leading through the next General Election, then your money is tied up for seven years.
Secondly, if Brexit is not a short-term success, or if economic circumstances weaken, then the leadership prospects of people who most advocated Leave are going to be damaged. (And our prosperity rests on very shaky foundations right now.) Note: a serious recession might have nothing to do with Brexit. But that doesn't mean it won't be blamed.
Thirdly, if there is a leadership election in the near future (say before the end of 2019), then it is far from clear that JRM would make it to the last two. Being the favourite of the members (or even the public at large) may not be enough to ensure JRM gets through to the last two.
I keep on meaning to do a thread asking 'Who is the Lord Halifax de nos jours?'
Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940
Less surprising perhaps when you remember (a) Churchill had come back into cabinet less than a year before after a decade in exile imposed by his hysteria, incompetence and rebelliousness, particularly when you factor in his father had suffered a similar (in his case, terminal) breakdown and (b) that Halifax was personally popular - indeed, he was a very strange omission from Guilty Men, despite being one of the guiltiest of them, for that reason.
At the same time as a peer, a Catholic and an appeaser he would have been a strange and unwise choice and it is to his very great credit I think that he recognised that and told Chamberlain to recommend Churchill.
The one perhaps to watch if there is a sudden vacancy at the Foreign Office is Alan Duncan. He could be promoted to fill the post and take it over quickly although it would unbalance the Leave/Remain cohort in the cabinet.
Was Halifax omitted from Guilty Men"? He was included in the 15 according to Wikipedia. Have to confess though I've not read the original.
Brexit Minister stationed in Bruxelles to keep an eye on stuff - IDS
Unspecified cabinet role for Priti Patel
Well, Patel is talentless, but apart from that it looks like a great plan.
This is the last moment for the Leavers in the Cabinet to put up or shut up - will be interesting to see what happens but the comments are right - if they force a leadership contest one of them will win.
Saturday evening talk about future Tory leader. No mention of Teresa's supposed favourite Williamson though. Surely she needs to think about promoting him to the foreign office soon as Maggie did with Major.
JRM as PM? I think he would do a good job. He's intelligent, and principled.
However, at this point there are a number of things that mean that the current odds are not generous enough for me to be tempted.
Firstly, we have no idea when the vacancy as leader of the Conservative Party will appear. If - as we all hope - Brexit is a success, then I cannot see Mrs May standing down before the next General Election. This means that the other candidates in the next Conservative leadership election could be people we've not heard much of yet: Kwasi Kwarteng, or Rory Stewart sping to mind. (And there may be people from the class of 2015 or 2017 that turn out to be very impressive.)
Even if JRM is the best of this bunch, if Mrs May is leading through the next General Election, then your money is tied up for seven years.
Secondly, if Brexit is not a short-term success, or if economic circumstances weaken, then the leadership prospects of people who most advocated Leave are going to be damaged. (And our prosperity rests on very shaky foundations right now.) Note: a serious recession might have nothing to do with Brexit. But that doesn't mean it won't be blamed.
Thirdly, if there is a leadership election in the near future (say before the end of 2019), then it is far from clear that JRM would make it to the last two. Being the favourite of the members (or even the public at large) may not be enough to ensure JRM gets through to the last two.
It's a big assumption that "we all hope" Brexit will be a success. You and I do. Matthew Parris or Alistair Campbell? Not so much.
Saturday evening talk about future Tory leader. No mention of Teresa's supposed favourite Williamson though. Surely she needs to think about promoting him to the foreign office soon as Maggie did with Major.
JRM as PM? I think he would do a good job. He's intelligent, and principled.
However, at this point there are a number of things that mean that the current odds are not generous enough for me to be tempted.
Firstly, we have no idea when the vacancy as leader of the Conservative Party will appear. If - as we all hope - Brexit is a success, then I cannot see Mrs May standing down before the next General Election. This means that the other candidates in the next Conservative leadership election could be people we've not heard much of yet: Kwasi Kwarteng, or Rory Stewart sping to mind. (And there may be people from the class of 2015 or 2017 that turn out to be very impressive.)
Even if JRM is the best of this bunch, if Mrs May is leading through the next General Election, then your money is tied up for seven years.
Secondly, if Brexit is not a short-term success, or if economic circumstances weaken, then the leadership prospects of people who most advocated Leave are going to be damaged. (And our prosperity rests on very shaky foundations right now.) Note: a serious recession might have nothing to do with Brexit. But that doesn't mean it won't be blamed.
Thirdly, if there is a leadership election in the near future (say before the end of 2019), then it is far from clear that JRM would make it to the last two. Being the favourite of the members (or even the public at large) may not be enough to ensure JRM gets through to the last two.
It's a big assumption that "we all hope" Brexit will be a success. You and I do. Matthew Parris or Alistair Campbell? Not so much.
It really hinges on what the definition of success is.
Defining success or failure in purely economic terms is making a mistake and in any case we can never know the counterfactual.
Sounds like the civil service has something to hide.
Time for an investigation into its forecasts.
Great claims require great evidence. All the mad Leavers are very free with their aspersions about the civil service but have nothing to back up their paranoia besides dislike of what they are hearing.
Brexit Minister stationed in Bruxelles to keep an eye on stuff - IDS
Unspecified cabinet role for Priti Patel
Would Gove be satisfied with DPM? When Jacob come lately Rees Mogg gets chancellor?
A Johnson / Gove / Rees-Mogg administration is not a government, it’s a Carry On film.
If you thought the current government was an international laughing stock - you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Putting Gove and Ress Mogg in charge would ensure intellectual coherence. It wouldn’t be what I want at all - but at least decisions would be made. As Mr Meeks points out though - no idea how they would get things through Parliament.
FWIW, I don't think civil servants are manipulating anything. I'm sure they are professionally impartial in their work. It is true that most of them supported Remain, and it may be true that unconscious bias influences some of the modelling assumptions underlying their forecasts, but nothing more than that. It's why I take them with a pinch of salt rather than the word of God.
But, far more important is the political leadership given, or lack of it. Right now, we have a void with May and so both Hammond and the Brexiteer purists are seeking to fill it.
The civil service will default to being institutionally conservative and cautious.
Can someone please pass the following message on to Northants council: live within your means, don't spend too much money, and when you run out of it stop blaming everyone else apart from yourself.
Sounds like the civil service has something to hide.
Time for an investigation into its forecasts.
Great claims require great evidence. All the mad Leavers are very free with their aspersions about the civil service but have nothing to back up their paranoia besides dislike of what they are hearing.
Sounds like the civil service has something to hide.
Time for an investigation into its forecasts.
Great claims require great evidence. All the mad Leavers are very free with their aspersions about the civil service but have nothing to back up their paranoia besides dislike of what they are hearing.
Can someone please pass the following message on to Northants council: live within your means, don't spend too much money, and when you run out of it stop blaming everyone else apart from yourself.
It’s astonishing that they opened their new £53 million headquarters within the last 12 months, and now come asking central government for more.
Can someone please pass the following message on to Northants council: live within your means, don't spend too much money, and when you run out of it stop blaming everyone else apart from yourself.
A Tory council, with its overspend mostly on adult social care. This is not a spendthrift looney left council.
Sounds like the civil service has something to hide.
Time for an investigation into its forecasts.
Great claims require great evidence. All the mad Leavers are very free with their aspersions about the civil service but have nothing to back up their paranoia besides dislike of what they are hearing.
+1 Well said!
The Civil Service is notorious for frustrating the will of governments -and given the Observer headline, in Weimar Germany it did all it could to obstruct democracy. The Civil Service represents the Establishment. Most PMs and governments which have upset the Establishment have had problems with Civil Service. Remaining in the EU is the favourite cause of the Establishment....
Can someone please pass the following message on to Northants council: live within your means, don't spend too much money, and when you run out of it stop blaming everyone else apart from yourself.
A Tory council, with its overspend mostly on adult social care. This is not a spendthrift looney left council.
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary......
Anyone think Sir Humphey would have let Brexit happen without having a damned good go at stopping it?
Can someone please pass the following message on to Northants council: live within your means, don't spend too much money, and when you run out of it stop blaming everyone else apart from yourself.
A Tory council, with its overspend mostly on adult social care. This is not a spendthrift looney left council.
Sounds like the civil service has something to hide. Time for an investigation into its forecasts.
1. List all - and I mean all - forecasts made by the Civil Service (you can stick to just England and Wales if it makes it easier for you) since, say, 2000.
2. List all (ditto) forecasts made by comparable private sector analysts over the same period of the same outcome.
3. Define the outcome you wish to measure against.
4. Define the criterion[1] you use to measure accuracy of the prediction compared to the outcome.
5. Measure the accuracy of all those predictions against the outcome.
6. Publish your results.
[1] I can give you a list if you like of at least twenty-seven metrics, and in conversation recently somebody mentioned a 28th. I nearly lamped him.
Jacob v Jeremy would be the most berserk and entertaining election of all time
And Jeremy would win.
No he would not
We none of us know do we, but I cannot see JRM being that popular beyond the Tory faithfull. JC on the other hand, surprised us all with his popular appeal against expectations in the last GE.
Jacob v Jeremy would be the most berserk and entertaining election of all time
And Jeremy would win.
No he would not
We none of us know do we, but I cannot see JRM being that popular beyond the Tory faithfull. JC on the other hand, surprised us all with his popular appeal against expectations in the last GE.
My comment was given to show balance but truth is no one knows
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
Jacob v Jeremy would be the most berserk and entertaining election of all time
And Jeremy would win.
No he would not
We none of us know do we, but I cannot see JRM being that popular beyond the Tory faithfull. JC on the other hand, surprised us all with his popular appeal against expectations in the last GE.
No we don’t. But as a Tory voter in the past I would not vote for JRM and this dream team.
Jacob v Jeremy would be the most berserk and entertaining election of all time
And Jeremy would win.
No he would not
We none of us know do we, but I cannot see JRM being that popular beyond the Tory faithfull. JC on the other hand, surprised us all with his popular appeal against expectations in the last GE.
No we don’t. But as a Tory voter in the past I would not vote for JRM and this dream team.
But you said Jeremy would win. I said he would not to balance your comment as neither of us or anyone else can have a clue who may win the next GE
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
That program just gives the US Air Force a cover story.
I did actually notice this. As post-Brexit we would have no involvement with the Commission, Council nor Parliament, how exactly is this "keeping an eye on" going to work? Is he going to dig a tunnel? Oooh, it's 'xciting!
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
That program just gives the US Air Force a cover story.
I did actually notice this. As post-Brexit we would have no involvement with the Commission, Council nor Parliament, how exactly is this "keeping an eye on" going to work? Is he going to dig a tunnel? Oooh, it's 'xciting!
I imagine they want the posting now, rather than after Brexit.
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
That program just gives the US Air Force a cover story.
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
That program just gives the US Air Force a cover story.
It was originally a movie
Weirdly, if I remember correctly, "Stargate SG-1" (the first TV series) is a continuation of "Stargate" (the film): the characters and backstory are the same, just played by different actors.
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
That program just gives the US Air Force a cover story.
It was originally a movie
Weirdly, if I remember correctly, "Stargate SG-1" (the first TV series) is a continuation of "Stargate" (the film): the characters and backstory are the same, just played by different actors.
They did tweak the canon a bit, but otherwise correct.
Brexiteers slating the Treasury and civil servants would be well advised to remember that it was the Treasury who made the case for us staying out of the Euro, in spite of Blair’s initial keenness on the idea.
An impartial civil service is a great strength of our political system. These latest attacks make it harder for them to speak the truth to power.
I did actually notice this. As post-Brexit we would have no involvement with the Commission, Council nor Parliament, how exactly is this "keeping an eye on" going to work? Is he going to dig a tunnel? Oooh, it's 'xciting!
I imagine they want the posting now, rather than after Brexit.
Well that's silly, all it would do is get Iain Duncan Smith out of the country for 13 months: why would JRM possibly want such a thing?
Brexiteers slating the Treasury and civil servants would be well advised to remember that it was the Treasury who made the case for us staying out of the Euro, in spite of Blair’s initial keenness on the idea.
An impartial civil service is a great strength of our political system. These latest attacks make it harder for them to speak the truth to power.
They also forget, post Brexit, the Civil Service will be needed to Take Back Control.
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
It’s getting increasingly hard to work out which bits of Britain Leavers actually like. There’s barely been an aspect that hasn’t caused them to melt down in the last couple of years.
Sounds like the civil service has something to hide.
Time for an investigation into its forecasts.
Great claims require great evidence. All the mad Leavers are very free with their aspersions about the civil service but have nothing to back up their paranoia besides dislike of what they are hearing.
Trouble is that the Treasury plainly produced hyperbolic forecasts before the referendum much to George Osborne's favour. Indeed it was Osborne himself who told us we couldn't trust the Treasury which is why he set up the independent office for budget responsibility. The man has a lot to answer for.
It’s getting increasingly hard to work out which bits of Britain Leavers actually like. There’s barely been an aspect that hasn’t caused them to melt down in the last couple of years.
Leavers like Wetherspoons pubs and sitting in laybys on picnic chairs drinking tea out of a thermos...
Jeremy Corbyn vs Jacob Rees-Mogg would be the Alien vs Predator election.
..."whoever wins, we lose" (the tag-line from the movie). Yes, you got there before me...
"Thousands of years ago, these REMAINERS found a backwater island. They taught LEAVERS how to build, and were worshipped as EU Commissioners. Every hundred years, the Commissioners would return. And when they did, they would expect a sacrifice. LEAVERS were used to breed the ultimate prey. The REMAINERS would battle with these great serpents to prove themselves worthy to carry the mark. But if the REMAINERS lost, they made sure nothing survived. An entire island economy wiped out overnight."
It’s getting increasingly hard to work out which bits of Britain Leavers actually like. There’s barely been an aspect that hasn’t caused them to melt down in the last couple of years.
Leavers like Wetherspoons pubs and sitting in laybys on picnic chairs drinking tea out of a thermos...
Wetherspoons are suspect ever since they said they wanted more foreigners let in the country.
Jeremy Corbyn vs Jacob Rees-Mogg would be the Alien vs Predator election.
..."whoever wins, we lose" (the tag-line from the movie). Yes, you got there before me...
"Thousands of years ago, these REMAINERS found a backwater island. They taught LEAVERS how to build, and were worshipped as EU Commissioners. Every hundred years, the Commissioners would return. And when they did, they would expect a sacrifice. LEAVERS were used to breed the ultimate prey. The REMAINERS would battle with these great serpents to prove themselves worthy to carry the mark. But if the REMAINERS lost, they made sure nothing survived. An entire island economy wiped out overnight."
It’s getting increasingly hard to work out which bits of Britain Leavers actually like. There’s barely been an aspect that hasn’t caused them to melt down in the last couple of years.
I've still yet to finish off my rail adventures in the West Country, Southern Wales, Teesside, Morecambe/Heysham, Barrow to Carlisle, Gainsborough to Barnetby, Barton-on-Humber, and Scotland north of Glasgow/Edinburgh.
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
But the Civil Service has been exposed by "Yes, Minister" which as many connected with politics over the years have observed, was not so much a comedy series as a documentary...
This is like saying you want an investigation into the Stargate under Cheyenne Mountain, because you saw this program on telly...
Comments
Has the (unspecified) “senior” (non cabinet attending) minister resigned yet?
He doesn’t need a particular post, just a one way ticket.
JRM as PM? I think he would do a good job. He's intelligent, and principled.
However, at this point there are a number of things that mean that the current odds are not generous enough for me to be tempted.
Firstly, we have no idea when the vacancy as leader of the Conservative Party will appear. If
- as we all hope - Brexit is a success, then I cannot see Mrs May standing down before the next General Election. This means that the other candidates in the next Conservative leadership election could be people we've not heard much of yet: Kwasi Kwarteng, or Rory Stewart sping to mind. (And there may be people from the class of 2015 or 2017 that turn out to be very impressive.)
Even if JRM is the best of this bunch, if Mrs May is leading through the next General Election, then your money is tied up for seven years.
Secondly, if Brexit is not a short-term success, or if economic circumstances weaken, then the leadership prospects of people who most advocated Leave are going to be damaged. (And our prosperity rests on very shaky foundations right now.) Note: a serious recession might have nothing to do with Brexit. But that doesn't mean it won't be blamed.
Thirdly, if there is a leadership election in the near future (say before the end of 2019), then it is far from clear that JRM would make it to the last two. Being the favourite of the members (or even the public at large) may not be enough to ensure JRM gets through to the last two.
Like for Dave, I'm now prepared to take a bullet for Mrs May, lest we get the 'dream team.'
This is the last moment for the Leavers in the Cabinet to put up or shut up - will be interesting to see what happens but the comments are right - if they force a leadership contest one of them will win.
Hundreds of MPs would be better than May.
When Jacob come lately Rees Mogg gets chancellor?
If you thought the current government was an international laughing stock - you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Defining success or failure in purely economic terms is making a mistake and in any case we can never know the counterfactual.
Time for an investigation into its forecasts.
Do you think May is on the same channel?
Or is she into more into Instagram?
It wouldn’t be what I want at all - but at least decisions would be made.
As Mr Meeks points out though - no idea how they would get things through Parliament.
And the goon Hammond has gone native.
Time for new leadership,
But, far more important is the political leadership given, or lack of it. Right now, we have a void with May and so both Hammond and the Brexiteer purists are seeking to fill it.
The civil service will default to being institutionally conservative and cautious.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/02/tory-run-council-runs-out-of-money-to-meet-obligations
Best offers so far from Corbyn and Boris is just 5 billion - a 25 bilion yearly shortfall
Anyone think Sir Humphey would have let Brexit happen without having a damned good go at stopping it?
2. List all (ditto) forecasts made by comparable private sector analysts over the same period of the same outcome.
3. Define the outcome you wish to measure against.
4. Define the criterion[1] you use to measure accuracy of the prediction compared to the outcome.
5. Measure the accuracy of all those predictions against the outcome.
6. Publish your results.
[1] I can give you a list if you like of at least twenty-seven metrics, and in conversation recently somebody mentioned a 28th. I nearly lamped him.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Party_Trial
A) One who can read, one who can write, and the third to keep an eye on the dangerous intellectuals.
Yesterday was the 75th anniversary of the heroic Red Army's glorious victory over the evil Fascist invader at Stalingrad!
A) Because Brussels told them to!
An impartial civil service is a great strength of our political system.
These latest attacks make it harder for them to speak the truth to power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p63xt5AlahY&feature=youtu.be&t=190
No wonder the NHS is so stretched....