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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the part of the UK which has seen the most seat turbulence
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But 5/1 on BF.
Loads of tactical voting in.FPTP elections in Scotland, I think.
That's 46%-54% Yes/No.
JRM 6
Johnson 8.8
Gove 14
Rudd 16
Hunt 16
21 bar those five.
However, I am happier seeing potential Tory losses to the SNP than Labour gains from the Nats.
She certainly put in a robust performance, quite the contrast to the yellow bellied Mrs May.
Whether you like the debates or not, they are here to stay, and no leader can chicken out of them without looking like a loser and shedding votes at the ballot box.
The protesters who disrupted Jacob Rees-Mogg were right and deserve our support.
https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2018/02/03/protesters-disrupted-jacob-rees-mogg-right-deserve-support-opinion/
(At one pound per seat)
Oh, and by the way guess who had breakfast with a certain Dutch europop band this morning?
Their denigration of The Treasury sounds like the wild conspiracies of the Corbynites on Jewish Banking.
And it's a shame that you would stoop to compare it.
"Oh, mon dieu. Quelle honte. Ca ne fait rien"
Google translation: "Oh, dear. What a shame. Never mind."
The gist of it is an all powerful establishment will lie/do their best to retain the status quo because it will ruin their interests.
*Pre-Plantagenet conservative views.
https://twitter.com/SarahHuckabee/status/794255968448020480
The club did Cyrille proud today, really well organised and presented.
(Shame about the team of course but there it is)
Sadly the singer wasn’t Anita, but the new one they’ve got looks and sounds rather similar. I think she only does the occasional one now. Fantastic gig though, ears still ringing...
If he does, he will quickly separate from the pack because he is a far superior politician - able and willing to engage in debate, explain his views to the public and because you actually know what he stands for - who can really say what Rudd believes? And, at the end of the day, the only way to deal with Brexit is to actually deliver it. His social views are out of line with current mainstream opinion but I think he will simply and eloquently explain that he has no desire to implement them and the public at large will accept this, because he is being honest.
He is spot on with his criticism of the Treasury - they are clearly politicised and every forecast they made has been hopelessly wrong. They are exploiting a vacuum of leadership in No 10.
Sooner or later the Leavers will have to move on May if they want a real Brexit, when they do it will be the person who actually was consistent in his position who will get the credit. In the end, especially in the current climate, people love a conviction politician. JRM is favourite for good reason.
And indeed - the odds are why so many of us are laying him.
Indeed, the last time the favourite even three months prior was the winner was Heath in 1965, and the label of 'favourite' was a marginal call between him and Maudling.
I still have a very strong feeling that the next leader will be somebody totally unexpected. It is not impossible we would have a new Foreign Secretary by then and it is also not impossible that such a person could be outside the Cabinet or at least very junior.
Still find it astonishing he was the favourite in 1940
As everyone knows AV is the greatest voting system known to man, and helps weed out the undesirable candidates through the early rounds of voting.
Like AV, in each round of voting the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated until there are two left, and the winner is the one that gets 50% plus of the vote.
Switch it all to a single tier !
May be a difficult set of Locals in May if more do.
Boris has the same flaws and appeal as Trump. Narcissistic and unreliable but cunning with an ability to get publicity and cut through with soundbites and slogans. Tory MPs will do what the Republican Party have done with Trump. Hold their noses and support Boris.
They'll drain support from Rees-Mogg. Those MPS who don't support Boris are more likely to support a Leaver. So members will have a choice between Boris and a Leaver.
Corbyn v. Johnson will be similar to Sanders v. Trump. Hard to call. But it won't be Rees-Mogg.
Hollobone
Heaton-Harris
Bone
Leadsom
plus Louise Mensch who used to be one
There is a trade off between number of members to be elected and proportionality. The larger the number of members the more proportional but the more unwieldy the voting slip and the wider the geographical spread. I favour two member constituencies in rural seats (otherwise the geography is too spread) and four or five members in more urban areas. I don't know whether that arrangement would more favour Labour or Conservative.
At the same time as a peer, a Catholic and an appeaser he would have been a strange and unwise choice and it is to his very great credit I think that he recognised that and told Chamberlain to recommend Churchill.
The one perhaps to watch if there is a sudden vacancy at the Foreign Office is Alan Duncan. He could be promoted to fill the post and take it over quickly although it would unbalance the Leave/Remain cohort in the cabinet.
But alternatively in your part of the world a Chesterfield unitary council combining Chesterfield, Bolsover and North-East Derbyshire district councils would probably be a good idea.
Antony Eden ? Kingsley Wood ?
STV works best with seats of three members plus.
A big advantage compared to our current system is that the boundaries can be drawn based on 'sensible' areas - whole towns or cities (sub-divisions of the biggest cities) or sub-divisions of counties, and then the number of MPs aligned with the electorate. Future boundary reviews would mostly be changing the number of MPs , where needed, rather than devising a whole new geography every time. Thus seats would have much more longevity and people would get to know them better.
And, as with councillors, constituents would have a choice of people to contact with their issues.
PM - Boris
Chancellor - Jacob Rees-Mogg
Brexit Minister stationed in Bruxelles to keep an eye on stuff - IDS
Unspecified cabinet role for Priti Patel
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/959882623404462082