The vast majority have accepted that the decision has been made and it will happen. But the question of what form of Brexit remains up for grabs. Do we want to remain in the Customs Union, even for a little while whilst our Border Service gets up to speed, do we want to remain in or more likely very closely aligned to the Single Market, even if that means that much of our regulatory legislation would still have to be compatible with the EUs, what are we willing to offer in terms of a "fast track" for EU citizens who want to come here to work, if anything? These questions go on and on and it is frankly frustrating that people who have valid points are instead sitting in the huff and saying, well it's up to you, you Brexit, you fix it and other such inanities. It really doesn't matter what we say on here where few minds are changed but those representing people have to be clear that they accept but wish to mitigate the consequences of the decision. These frustrations are enhanced when we have a negotiating team that, to put it kindly, don't exactly inspire confidence that they are up on the detail. A good Brexit required a national effort but instead we have pointless and largely childish bickering and I frankly blame both sides. It's disappointing but there we are.
The side to blame is the side that wishes to implement this. Why on earth do you expect anyone to get behind something they don't believe in that is being badly led in a highly partisan way?
Moreover, Mr L, you Conservatives lost the Referendum. It was yours from beginning to end.
Why do you expect everybody else to pile in and rescue you?
I voted Leave so I didn't lose. People can be as bitter as they like on here but is it really too much for our elected officials to act in the national interest? There are lots of mistakes on both sides. I thought the government made a serious mistake in not involving Mandelson for example.
That`s some kind of progress, I suppose.
But the Remain side was headed by leading Conservatives. Therefore Conservatives lost the Referendum.
They ought to recognise their own responsibility.
Sigh, so was the Leave side. But yes, as the government they are responsible.
The problem is that the Conservatives were and are simultaneously responsible and irresponsible. How about that?!!!
Remarkable that he hasn't been thrown out by the good folk of Birkenhead.
In reply to a witty quip by Benn the younger saying he doesn't arrange a closing date for buying a house without knowing which house he's buying a shaking and rattled Field said at least he buys his houses he doesn't inherit them.
I felt embarrassed for him. It didn't go down well and sounded cheap. The man's got Brexit written all over him
As part of my degree very many moons ago I drew on the work and research of Frank Field for the Child Poverty Action Group and the Low Pay Unit. Here is a man who has worked for his cause for nearly 50 years. And yet an upper class champagne socialist pours scorn on him for his long held and principled Brexit views and for making an apposite observation on a man who grew up with the advantages of a very privileged background. says it all really.
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
+1
At a macro level the country will be screwed which really saddens me.
At a micro level, it's pop corn time watching the swivel eyed loons on here try to convince us black is white.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
If a good Brexit required a national effort, perhaps a 50% + 1 referendum wasn't a sound basis upon which to decide to do it.
We know that it's possible to leave the EU if we need to. The problem is that we don't need to, and not enough people even want to.
Brexit is not going to happen.
Our EU friends are doing a tremendous job in making sure that the whole issue becomes so toxic that there is very soon not going to be the faintest possibility of an amicable relationship between the UK and the EU, let alone Brexit not happening or the UK rejoining. I reckon they've got about three weeks to change their approach, otherwise it is going to get very nasty indeed.
Excuse me? Did you read what many leavers were, and are, saying about the EU? And you accuse *them* of being toxic?
Remarkable that he hasn't been thrown out by the good folk of Birkenhead.
In reply to a witty quip by Benn the younger saying he doesn't arrange a closing date for buying a house without knowing which house he's buying a shaking and rattled Field said at least he buys his houses he doesn't inherit them.
I felt embarrassed for him. It didn't go down well and sounded cheap. The man's got Brexit written all over him
I haven't seen it, so don't know the context of it, but the retort by Field looks pretty good on paper. Perhaps it didn't go down well because he hit a nerve? I'm interested to know why Field has "Brexit written all over him". It's not your well known snobbery manifesting itself, is it Rog?
Questions to which the answer is yes. Roger fears intelligent conviction politicians like Field because he himself lacks both intelligence and conviction.
"MPs voted to keep Clause 1 of the bill by 318 votes to 68. Clause 1 is a single line saying that the European Communities Act 1972 will be repealed on exit day."
So Lab again (officially) abstained as per 1st vote.
As per 1st vote - Govt got 318 - the precise number needed to win.
650 - 7 SF - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers = 635 max vote. So 318 to win if everyone votes.
"MPs voted to keep Clause 1 of the bill by 318 votes to 68. Clause 1 is a single line saying that the European Communities Act 1972 will be repealed on exit day."
So Lab again (officially) abstained as per 1st vote.
As per 1st vote - Govt got 318 - the precise number needed to win.
650 - 7 SF - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers = 635 max vote. So 318 to win if everyone votes.
I would expect people who thought, for example, that being in the Customs Union, or the Patents Court or various research programs to make the case loudly and publically not as a means to try to reverse the decision but to mitigate its effects and influence what the government is seeking to achieve in the negotiations. Instead they have remained every bit as partisan as the government ministers appointed. We will have a worse Brexit than we might have done as a result.
It would help if when people say we should remain in the customs union Leavers don't immediately call such people traitors and wreckers.
Yes it would. It would help if those who don't agree weren't called "batshit mental".
It would help if those who don't agree came up with any kind of coherent prospectus beyond hating the EU. Until they do, they're fair game.
Or do you expect Remain supporters to provide a Brexit future that caters to their prejudices too?
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
+1
At a macro level the country will be screwed which really saddens me.
At a micro level, it's pop corn time watching the swivel eyed loons on here try to convince us black is white.
"swivel eyed loons" is tired, cheap, and about as funny as mental disability themed humour generally is. It is a thing I seriously don't understand about the more precious Remoaners: if 52% of your voting fellow countrymen are xenophobic bigots, and half the posters here are swivel eyed loons, what are you doing in the country and on the forum, respectively?
Excuse me? Did you read what many leavers were, and are, saying about the EU? And you accuse *them* of being toxic?
Yes I do. It's not the UK side which is refusing to discuss an orderly transition, indulging in financial blackmail, threatening to block UK car exports completely, threatening to cut off air links (or at least doing nothing to arrange for then to continue), and so on.
Of course in these circumstances bad feeling will be engendered on both sides, which is precisely my point. I expect it to to get increasingly heated, which is one reason why I think talk of reversing Brexit or eventually rejoining is a complete fantasy. (The other reason of course is that the mechanism just doesn't work).
Remarkable that he hasn't been thrown out by the good folk of Birkenhead.
In reply to a witty quip by Benn the younger saying he doesn't arrange a closing date for buying a house without knowing which house he's buying a shaking and rattled Field said at least he buys his houses he doesn't inherit them.
I felt embarrassed for him. It didn't go down well and sounded cheap. The man's got Brexit written all over him
I haven't seen it, so don't know the context of it, but the retort by Field looks pretty good on paper. Perhaps it didn't go down well because he hit a nerve? I'm interested to know why Field has "Brexit written all over him". It's not your well known snobbery manifesting itself, is it Rog?
Sounds good on paper but delivery is everything. I suspect what might be awkward is alluding to the death of his father in a joke/jibe.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
From being a super Remainer to being a card carrying Brexiter, your transformation is something to behold. Has it something to do with the fact that you are your master's voice. Under Cameron, you were a loyal Remainer. Under Maybot you are a loyal Brexiter.
But weren't a trade deal a shoo-in ? We were told that the EU had no choice because of our trade deficit with them. It is not turning out that way , is it ?
BMW will still be exported to the UK. Will Nissan be exported to the EU ?
The side to blame is the side that wishes to implement this.
Why on earth do you expect anyone to get behind something they don't believe in that is being badly led in a highly partisan way?
I would expect people who thought, for example, that being in the Customs Union, or the Patents Court or various research programs to make the case loudly and publically not as a means to try to reverse the decision but to mitigate its effects and influence what the government is seeking to achieve in the negotiations. Instead they have remained every bit as partisan as the government ministers appointed. We will have a worse Brexit than we might have done as a result.
Until the government outlines something approaching a coherent vision about what Brexit might look like, why should those on the opposite side try? All that's going to happen is that they are going to be labelled quislings for their pains.
I am going to stop with the brick wall soon because it is starting to hurt but just maybe they should try because the government does indeed give the clear impression of not having the faintest idea of what it is doing or what it wants?
Having defeated Remain with xenophobic lies, it's up to Leave to come up with ways of bridging the chasm that they willingly opened up. Or, if they are unable to, to admit failure.
Why you think Remain supporters should work hard to secure Leave's dream when Leave supporters have proved wholly inadequate for their self-appointed task is quite beyond me.
Last time I looked the lady who is making all the (wrong) decisions about Brexit voted Remain. If she gave the Leave supporters a free hand we might have got somewhere but since she seems committed to her own form of Brexit which no one seems to support it is no surprise it is not exactly a winning formula.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
I agree with you, and think we should start tomorrow planning to avoid a crash-out no-deal scenario. The EU would love to keep the talks going until the day the clock runs down, all that uncertainy in the business community goes in their favour.
I think that if the EU side try and act punitively (planes grounded, cars not allowed to be imported etc.) we have a very good case at a WTO arbitration panel, which we need to initiate as soon as possible.
"MPs voted to keep Clause 1 of the bill by 318 votes to 68. Clause 1 is a single line saying that the European Communities Act 1972 will be repealed on exit day."
So Lab again (officially) abstained as per 1st vote.
As per 1st vote - Govt got 318 - the precise number needed to win.
650 - 7 SF - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers = 635 max vote. So 318 to win if everyone votes.
"MPs voted to keep Clause 1 of the bill by 318 votes to 68. Clause 1 is a single line saying that the European Communities Act 1972 will be repealed on exit day."
So Lab again (officially) abstained as per 1st vote.
As per 1st vote - Govt got 318 - the precise number needed to win.
650 - 7 SF - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers = 635 max vote. So 318 to win if everyone votes.
Excuse me? Did you read what many leavers were, and are, saying about the EU? And you accuse *them* of being toxic?
Yes I do. It's not the UK side which is refusing to discuss an orderly transition, indulging in financial blackmail, threatening to block UK car exports completely, threatening to cut off air links (or at least doing nothing to arrange for then to continue), and so on.
Of course in these circumstances bad feeling will be engendered on both sides, which is precisely my point. I expect it to to get increasingly heated, which is one reason why I think talks of reversing Brexit or eventually rejoining are complete fantasies. (The other reason of course is that the mechanism just doesn't work).
Your recent posts on Brexit just highlight how even many former Remain supporters actively involved in politics have a completely deluded view of our place in the EU and the world. It's going to be a humiliating experience.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
From being a super Remainer to being a card carrying Brexiter, your transformation is something to behold. Has it something to do with the fact that you are your master's voice. Under Cameron, you were a loyal Remainer. Under Maybot you are a loyal Brexiter.
Don't be idiotic. Quite apart from anything else, I was never a 'super Remainer', I haven't changed my mind that the decision to leave was a big mistake, I think Theresa May is a disaster and I'm certainly not a Brexiter, loyal or otherwise. None of that means that I am incapable of seeing that the EU position is unreasonable and destructive.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
Those aren't the issues - I'd expect a solution to paperwork issues allowing things to move. The question is how slowly will they move. Because the EU has a set of rules about how it trades with non-members. The easy one is stay in the EEA and Customs Union - and we could still do that and honour a "should we leave the EU" referendum to the letter. Then we have bilateral FTA's like with Canada. Then everyone else has a hard border and full customs checks.
Its not the EU shifting the goalposts, its us being William Webb Ellis picking the football up and the complaining about being sent of for handball. I fully expect that legally we will have no problem exporting cars to the EU. The problem is that we won't be. Because the just in time free movement regime that Honda, Mini, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, JLR etc are built on won't be there. Even if these companies are able to vastly increase their inventories to cope with the huge delays caused by a fixed border, the cost will be enough to switch production elsewhere. Honda have laid that out explicitly today and it takes a special kind of moron to insist they know more about the car industry than a car manufacturer does.
I've been warning about this for months. The physical delay caused by a hard border and the costs of the delays will stop many sectors of the industry dead. And even ones we need like food will be thrown into chaos. At the parliamentary reception I went to a few weeks back I discussed Brexit implications with a senior industry person who corrected my timeline for chaos. We'll be short on various foodstuffs inside a week. That's the industry assessment of a physical border with the EU.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
From being a super Remainer to being a card carrying Brexiter, your transformation is something to behold. Has it something to do with the fact that you are your master's voice. Under Cameron, you were a loyal Remainer. Under Maybot you are a loyal Brexiter.
Um no. Richard has continued to make it clear he would very much have preferred a Remain win. Like many other honourable Remainers he has chosen to support the will of the people and accept the result. Long before the referendum he was attacking both sides and particularly the EU. Since the result he has continued to attack both sides and see the faults in their arguments.
I would like to think that were the boot on the other foot I could have behaved the same way but I have my doubts.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
Those aren't the issues - I'd expect a solution to paperwork issues allowing things to move. The question is how slowly will they move. Because the EU has a set of rules about how it trades with non-members. The easy one is stay in the EEA and Customs Union - and we could still do that and honour a "should we leave the EU" referendum to the letter. Then we have bilateral FTA's like with Canada. Then everyone else has a hard border and full customs checks.
Its not the EU shifting the goalposts, its us being William Webb Ellis picking the football up and the complaining about being sent of for handball. I fully expect that legally we will have no problem exporting cars to the EU. The problem is that we won't be. Because the just in time free movement regime that Honda, Mini, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, JLR etc are built on won't be there. Even if these companies are able to vastly increase their inventories to cope with the huge delays caused by a fixed border, the cost will be enough to switch production elsewhere. Honda have laid that out explicitly today and it takes a special kind of moron to insist they know more about the car industry than a car manufacturer does.
I've been warning about this for months. The physical delay caused by a hard border and the costs of the delays will stop many sectors of the industry dead. And even ones we need like food will be thrown into chaos. At the parliamentary reception I went to a few weeks back I discussed Brexit implications with a senior industry person who corrected my timeline for chaos. We'll be short on various foodstuffs inside a week. That's the industry assessment of a physical border with the EU.
Those aren't the issues - I'd expect a solution to paperwork issues allowing things to move. The question is how slowly will they move. Because the EU has a set of rules about how it trades with non-members. The easy one is stay in the EEA and Customs Union - and we could still do that and honour a "should we leave the EU" referendum to the letter. Then we have bilateral FTA's like with Canada. Then everyone else has a hard border and full customs checks.
Its not the EU shifting the goalposts, its us being William Webb Ellis picking the football up and the complaining about being sent of for handball. I fully expect that legally we will have no problem exporting cars to the EU. The problem is that we won't be. Because the just in time free movement regime that Honda, Mini, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, JLR etc are built on won't be there. Even if these companies are able to vastly increase their inventories to cope with the huge delays caused by a fixed border, the cost will be enough to switch production elsewhere. Honda have laid that out explicitly today and it takes a special kind of moron to insist they know more about the car industry than a car manufacturer does.
I've been warning about this for months. The physical delay caused by a hard border and the costs of the delays will stop many sectors of the industry dead. And even ones we need like food will be thrown into chaos. At the parliamentary reception I went to a few weeks back I discussed Brexit implications with a senior industry person who corrected my timeline for chaos. We'll be short on various foodstuffs inside a week. That's the industry assessment of a physical border with the EU.
But what do they know...
I don't disagree with all that, and I hope you are right that there will be some kind of deal allowing an orderly transition. The trouble is that time is running out: we (both sides) really need to know what we are transitioning to, and we (both sides) need to start getting on with setting up the processes to make it happen. It's already extremely late to start doing so, and for that I blame the EU27 100%; they are the ones refusing to have the discussion which Theresa May wanted to start well before triggering Article 50.
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
From being a super Remainer to being a card carrying Brexiter, your transformation is something to behold. Has it something to do with the fact that you are your master's voice. Under Cameron, you were a loyal Remainer. Under Maybot you are a loyal Brexiter.
Don't be idiotic. Quite apart from anything else, I was never a 'super Remainer', I haven't changed my mind that the decision to leave was a big mistake, I think Theresa May is a disaster and I'm certainly not a Brexiter, loyal or otherwise. None of that means that I am incapable of seeing that the EU position is unreasonable and destructive.
Both the EU and Britain are being unreasonable and inept.
In the EU's partial defence, they probably don't think it's worth making the effort at present since Britain is so chaotic and unclear in its aims.
Personally, I’ve tried my best to convince people that free trade with 84% of the world economy is better than being stuck with an inward-looking and diminishing 16%.
On that basis, perhaps we should volunteer to being a province of China? Fast-growing economy, strong and stable government, we'd fit right in. Yes, it's not exactly local to us, but you evidently aren't too bothered by that?
There needs to be a decision about a deal or no deal before Christmas, otherwise companies are going to start making plans for a crash out in the new year. We are better off admitting that there’s not going to be a trade deal and spending the remaining time working to facilitiate a WTO Brexit.
I've pretty much written off a trade deal. The EU don't seem to want one, and we can't force them. The question therefore moves on to whether they want a destructive crash-out without a deal, with UK-built cars no longer legally exportable to the EU (and vice versa, presumably), with customs in chaos, UK tourists unable to fly to the Med, etc etc.
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
From being a super Remainer to being a card carrying Brexiter, your transformation is something to behold. Has it something to do with the fact that you are your master's voice. Under Cameron, you were a loyal Remainer. Under Maybot you are a loyal Brexiter.
Don't be idiotic. Quite apart from anything else, I was never a 'super Remainer', I haven't changed my mind that the decision to leave was a big mistake, I think Theresa May is a disaster and I'm certainly not a Brexiter, loyal or otherwise. None of that means that I am incapable of seeing that the EU position is unreasonable and destructive.
Both the EU and Britain are being unreasonable and inept.
In the EU's partial defence, they probably don't think it's worth making the effort at present since Britain is so chaotic and unclear in its aims.
I think I would agree that the UK are being far more inept than the EU.
If we can't stay in the EU - and I am pretty eurosceptic on the whole but given what has happened since the referendum and the absolutely dismal way the government has handled matters I have very little confidence in the country avoiding disaster - then I would be perfectly OK with staying in both the Single Market and the Customs Union and ending up in some sort of EFTA/EEA/Associate Membership status.
But that does not appear to be on offer from anyone.
Both the EU and Britain are being unreasonable and inept.
In the EU's partial defence, they probably don't think it's worth making the effort at present since Britain is so chaotic and unclear in its aims.
True, that is a complicating factor, but the great British public collectively decided, in its infinite wisdom, to leave us with a parliament spectacularly ill-formed for carrying out a complex negotiation.
We can't work together on a common national objective because a 52%/48% split shows there is no common objective. You can implement a change of this magnitude on the basis of a sub 4% winning margin but what you can't do is demand a group effort on an agreed national project. We had a referendum where the Status Quo was rejected but no new replacement was agreed. All roads lead back to the original failure to recognise that.
If your extreme Brexit based on 52% is now meeting it's inevitable imperial overstretch moment that's not my fault. It's yours.
Both the EU and Britain are being unreasonable and inept.
In the EU's partial defence, they probably don't think it's worth making the effort at present since Britain is so chaotic and unclear in its aims.
True, that is a complicating factor, but the great British public collectively decided, in its infinite wisdom, to leave us with a parliament spectacularly ill-formed for carrying out a complex negotiation.
There's nothing wrong with the balance in Parliament that a halfway competent government couldn't handle.
Theresa May's tenure as Prime Minister could make an excellent play. A woman who recognises the task that she must perform, who in glimpses does the right thing often, but who ultimately did not have the ability to lead the nation at a time when it needed a leader who could clearly articulate what she was seeking to achieve. By speaking to only half the nation, she ultimately has failed it all.
Excuse me? Did you read what many leavers were, and are, saying about the EU? And you accuse *them* of being toxic?
Yes I do. It's not the UK side which is refusing to discuss an orderly transition, indulging in financial blackmail, threatening to block UK car exports completely, threatening to cut off air links (or at least doing nothing to arrange for then to continue), and so on.
Of course in these circumstances bad feeling will be engendered on both sides, which is precisely my point. I expect it to to get increasingly heated, which is one reason why I think talk of reversing Brexit or eventually rejoining is a complete fantasy. (The other reason of course is that the mechanism just doesn't work).
And we're not being unreasonable as well, to feed the bad feeling?
I don't disagree with all that, and I hope you are right that there will be some kind of deal allowing an orderly transition. The trouble is that time is running out: we (both sides) really need to know what we are transitioning to, and we (both sides) need to start getting on with setting up the processes to make it happen. It's already extremely late to start doing so, and for that I blame the EU27 100%; they are the ones refusing to have the discussion which Theresa May wanted to start well before triggering Article 50.
And when they refused to have those discussions, then May should have taken time - lots of it if necessary - to think and debate here and reach out to Remainers to work out what Britain wanted and set out a coherent well-thought through position which sought to reach across the divide created by the referendum and behind which most could get.
She didn't. She decided - apparently on her own - what Brexit should mean. She didn't involve anyone in her Cabinet, let alone the country. And she rushed towards the triggering of Article 50 without doing any of the necessary preparatory work. And as the cherry on top she put in charge a trio of the most egomaniacal and useless clowns ever appointed to public office. (OK not as bad as Berlusconi - but not far off.). And since then, every time she has been challenged, there has been a lot of stupid and laughable willy waving.
It is utterly inept and embarrassing. I may be naive but there was a sensible way in which the referendum result could have been approached and implemented. Not any more. It would be a gross act of irresponsibility to allow Britain to crash out and cause damage to its economy and to many of its citizens. It is time for serious politicians to speak some truths to the electorate and try and salvage something from this sorry mess.
Theresa May's tenure as Prime Minister could make an excellent play. A woman who recognises the task that she must perform, who in glimpses does the right thing often, but who ultimately did not have the ability to lead the nation at a time when it needed a leader who could clearly articulate what she was seeking to achieve. By speaking to only half the nation, she ultimately has failed it all.
If I'm right and Brexit is abandoned then I think Theresa May will be viewed very kindly by history. Providing the space in which to test the Brexit worldview to destruction with only the absolute minimum of irreparable damage could be seen as an immense national service.
Which is hardly surprising, given that the Remainers still think they can sabotage the whole thing. The hardline Remainers would love a no-deal crash-out, just so they could say they told us so.
Although I am more of a passive observer these days (being as Brexit-proof as I can manage), I still believe that Brexit will be very, very damaging to the UK.
How can I believe that and support "Leave"?
Based on my beliefs I will support any initiative that keeps us in the EU. How can I do otherwise?
[Note that I am NOT asking anyone else to change their mind. I am just outlining why I refuse to change mine]
17.4 million people voted that we leave the EU, and the government is tasked with implementing the will of the people on that specific question.
It would be better for everyone if the large number of intelligent people currently trying to undo or veto the result of the referendum, instead worked to help shape the implementation of it.
First you have to persuade that large number of intelligent people that it isn't completely malign and/or batshit mental. But Leavers haven't tried to do that.
Something gives me the feeling that those using terms like 'batshit mental' won't be reachable anyway.
Pretty much all but my most instranisgent champagne socialist pals have come around to accepting Brexit.
If, like @Sandpit, you want their co-operation or acquiescence, you have to try to mend fences with them. "We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
I don't disagree with all that, and I hope you are right that there will be some kind of deal allowing an orderly transition. The trouble is that time is running out: we (both sides) really need to know what we are transitioning to, and we (both sides) need to start getting on with setting up the processes to make it happen. It's already extremely late to start doing so, and for that I blame the EU27 100%; they are the ones refusing to have the discussion which Theresa May wanted to start well before triggering Article 50.
And when they refused to have those discussions, then May should have taken time - lots of it if necessary - to think and debate here and reach out to Remainers to work out what Britain wanted and set out a coherent well-thought through position which sought to reach across the divide created by the referendum and behind which most could get.
She didn't. She decided - apparently on her own - what Brexit should mean. She didn't involve anyone in her Cabinet, let alone the country. And she rushed towards the triggering of Article 50 without doing any of the necessary preparatory work. And as the cherry on top she put in charge a trio of the most egomaniacal and useless clowns ever appointed to public office. (OK not as bad as Berlusconi - but not far off.). And since then, every time she has been challenged, there has been a lot of stupid and laughable willy waving.
It is utterly inept and embarrassing. I may be naive but there was a sensible way in which the referendum result could have been approached and implemented. Not any more. It would be a gross act of irresponsibility to allow Britain to crash out and cause damage to its economy and to many of its citizens. It is time for serious politicians to speak some truths to the electorate and try and salvage something from this sorry mess.
Which is hardly surprising, given that the Remainers still think they can sabotage the whole thing. The hardline Remainers would love a no-deal crash-out, just so they could say they told us so.
Although I am more of a passive observer these days (being as Brexit-proof as I can manage), I still believe that Brexit will be very, very damaging to the UK.
How can I believe that and support "Leave"?
Based on my beliefs I will support any initiative that keeps us in the EU. How can I do otherwise?
[Note that I am NOT asking anyone else to change their mind. I am just outlining why I refuse to change mine]
17.4 million people voted that we leave the EU, and the government is tasked with implementing the will of the people on that specific question.
It would be better for everyone if the large number of intelligent people currently trying to undo or veto the result of the referendum, instead worked to help shape the implementation of it.
First you have to persuade that large number of intelligent people that it isn't completely malign and/or batshit mental. But Leavers haven't tried to do that.
Something gives me the feeling that those using terms like 'batshit mental' won't be reachable anyway.
Pretty much all but my most instranisgent champagne socialist pals have come around to accepting Brexit.
If, like @Sandpit, you want their co-operation or acquiescence, you have to try to mend fences with them. "We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
Would you say that you practice what you preach?
I would say that Leavers need to realise that this is their responsibility if they want their Brexit to work. Not my problem.
I don't disagree with all that, and I hope you are right that there will be some kind of deal allowing an orderly transition. The trouble is that time is running out: we (both sides) really need to know what we are transitioning to, and we (both sides) need to start getting on with setting up the processes to make it happen. It's already extremely late to start doing so, and for that I blame the EU27 100%; they are the ones refusing to have the discussion which Theresa May wanted to start well before triggering Article 50.
And when they refused to have those discussions, then May should have taken time - lots of it if necessary - to think and debate here and reach out to Remainers to work out what Britain wanted and set out a coherent well-thought through position which sought to reach across the divide created by the referendum and behind which most could get.
She didn't. She decided - apparently on her own - what Brexit should mean. She didn't involve anyone in her Cabinet, let alone the country. And she rushed towards the triggering of Article 50 without doing any of the necessary preparatory work. And as the cherry on top she put in charge a trio of the most egomaniacal and useless clowns ever appointed to public office. (OK not as bad as Berlusconi - but not far off.). And since then, every time she has been challenged, there has been a lot of stupid and laughable willy waving.
It is utterly inept and embarrassing. I may be naive but there was a sensible way in which the referendum result could have been approached and implemented. Not any more. It would be a gross act of irresponsibility to allow Britain to crash out and cause damage to its economy and to many of its citizens. It is time for serious politicians to speak some truths to the electorate and try and salvage something from this sorry mess.
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ?
In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
I don't disagree with all that, and I hope you are right that there will be some kind of deal allowing an orderly transition. The trouble is that time is running out: we (both sides) really need to know what we are transitioning to, and we (both sides) need to start getting on with setting up the processes to make it happen. It's already extremely late to start doing so, and for that I blame the EU27 100%; they are the ones refusing to have the discussion which Theresa May wanted to start well before triggering Article 50.
EU rules are clear. A customs union. A FTA. A hard border. We knew that when we triggered A50. Not up to the EU to redraw their rules, and it's blind stupidity of many British people including the cabinet who believe we are Britannia a Special Case to whom the rules do not apply.
So right now we have a simple set of options. Withdraw A50. Agree to stay in the customs union. Or prep for hard borders. As we physically can't operate with hard borders that leaves the other two options. And as we go into 2018 and business starts to stut up shop ahesd of the apocalypse, opinions will converge around the remaining options. That's why the Tory position is so laughably untenable
Which is hardly surprising, given that the Remainers still think they can sabotage the whole thing. The hardline Remainers would love a no-deal crash-out, just so they could say they told us so.
Although I am more of a passive observer these days (being as Brexit-proof as I can manage), I still believe that Brexit will be very, very damaging to the UK.
How can I believe that and support "Leave"?
Based on my beliefs I will support any initiative that keeps us in the EU. How can I do otherwise?
[Note that I am NOT asking anyone else to change their mind. I am just outlining why I refuse to change mine]
17.4 million people voted that we leave the EU, and the government is tasked with implementing the will of the people on that specific question.
It would be better for everyone if the large number of intelligent people currently trying to undo or veto the result of the referendum, instead worked to help shape the implementation of it.
First you have to persuade that large number of intelligent people that it isn't completely malign and/or batshit mental. But Leavers haven't tried to do that.
Something gives me the feeling that those using terms like 'batshit mental' won't be reachable anyway.
Pretty much all but my most instranisgent champagne socialist pals have come around to accepting Brexit.
If, like @Sandpit, you want their co-operation or acquiescence, you have to try to mend fences with them. "We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
Would you say that you practice what you preach?
I would say that Leavers need to realise that this is their responsibility if they want their Brexit to work. Not my problem.
"We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
Which is hardly surprising, given that the Remainers still think they can sabotage the whole thing. The hardline Remainers would love a no-deal crash-out, just so they could say they told us so.
Although I am more of a passive observer these days (being as Brexit-proof as I can manage), I still believe that Brexit will be very, very damaging to the UK.
How can I believe that and support "Leave"?
Based on my beliefs I will support any initiative that keeps us in the EU. How can I do otherwise?
[Note that I am NOT asking anyone else to change their mind. I am just outlining why I refuse to change mine]
17.4 million people voted that we leave the EU, and the government is tasked with implementing the will of the people on that specific question.
It would be better for everyone if the large number of intelligent people currently trying to undo or veto the result of the referendum, instead worked to help shape the implementation of it.
First you have to persuade that large number of intelligent people that it isn't completely malign and/or batshit mental. But Leavers haven't tried to do that.
Something gives me the feeling that those using terms like 'batshit mental' won't be reachable anyway.
Pretty much all but my most instranisgent champagne socialist pals have come around to accepting Brexit.
If, like @Sandpit, you want their co-operation or acquiescence, you have to try to mend fences with them. "We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
Would you say that you practice what you preach?
I would say that Leavers need to realise that this is their responsibility if they want their Brexit to work. Not my problem.
"We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
Then there is the lack of buy in. We've rightly focused on the lack of Bremorse in the polls but there has been no headline shift in the other direction. Many Remain voters have decided to walk before the Umpire speaks but that's just decency. In terms of the popularity of Brexit in principle Leavers have achieved no buy in in 17 months. And there are intriguing indicators some Remainers may be slowing their walk to the Pavillion.
Has the Brexit project altered it's course to reflect the fact not only that it was but remains deeply divisive ?
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ?
In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Which is hardly surprising, given that the Remainers still think they can sabotage the whole thing. The hardline Remainers would love a no-deal crash-out, just so they could say they told us so.
Although I am more of a passive observer these days (being as Brexit-proof as I can manage), I still believe that Brexit will be very, very damaging to the UK.
How can I believe that and support "Leave"?
Based on my beliefs I will support any initiative that keeps us in the EU. How can I do otherwise?
[Note that I am NOT asking anyone else to change their mind. I am just outlining why I refuse to change mine]
17.4 million people voted that we leave the EU, and the government is tasked with implementing the will of the people on that specific question.
It would be better for everyone if the large number of intelligent people currently trying to undo or veto the result of the referendum, instead worked to help shape the implementation of it.
First you have to persuade that large number of intelligent people that it isn't completely malign and/or batshit mental. But Leavers haven't tried to do that.
Something gives me the feeling that those using terms like 'batshit mental' won't be reachable anyway.
Pretty much all but my most instranisgent champagne socialist pals have come around to accepting Brexit.
If, like @Sandpit, you want their co-operation or acquiescence, you have to try to mend fences with them. "We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
Would you say that you practice what you preach?
I would say that Leavers need to realise that this is their responsibility if they want their Brexit to work. Not my problem.
"We hate you and despise you, now do as we say" is rarely a good way to get people to work to help shape implementation.
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
We can have one - in 7 years. We can't have one in 18 months, that's what our EU diplomatic service chaos said at the start and got fired for being in possession of the facts.
It's not where we could be in 2025 that's the issue. It's where we will be in 17 months that should focus the mind. This isn't a theoretical exercise where if you don't like the result you simply rewrite the rules. We knew the EU rules on trade when we triggered A50, the problem being that the Brexshit dipshitters assumed the rules wouldn't apply to us. Well the do
We can't work together on a common national objective because a 52%/48% split shows there is no common objective. You can implement a change of this magnitude on the basis of a sub 4% winning margin but what you can't do is demand a group effort on an agreed national project. We had a referendum where the Status Quo was rejected but no new replacement was agreed. All roads lead back to the original failure to recognise that.
If your extreme Brexit based on 52% is now meeting it's inevitable imperial overstretch moment that's not my fault. It's yours.
Mr. Meeks, there are only three alternatives. The vote passes and a deal of some sort is done, the vote fails and we leave with no deal, or there's an attempt by the Commons to either revoke Article 50 or to have a second referendum.
Do you think the last option is plausible? Because if the numbers are dicey then it'd be madness to seek to harm the UK as much as possible, and as the rebels are pro-EU it seems nigh on certain they'd prefer to Remain than Leave as hard as possible.
[If anyone is wondering about doing that so we come 'crawling back' to the EU, I'd argue that's psychologically problematic. One reason gangs have such severe trials to join is because it heightens the perceived reward by making the applicant suffer. Suffering a lot of pain and then have it be for nothing is a very difficult thing with which to deal, and very undesirable].
It's all getting very volatile. I'm unwilling to make predictions.
The damage was caused by the government failing to reach out to Remain supporters and seek to include them in their Brexit thinking. So they're looking at all options, including wild ones.
Which is hardly surprising, given that the Remainers still think they can sabotage the whole thing. The hardline Remainers would love a no-deal crash-out, just so they could say they told us so.
Although I am more of a passive observer these days (being as Brexit-proof as I can manage), I still believe that Brexit will be very, very damaging to the UK.
How can I believe that and support "Leave"?
Based on my beliefs I will support any initiative that keeps us in the EU. How can I do otherwise?
[Note that I am NOT asking anyone else to change their mind. I am just outlining why I refuse to change mine]
17.4 million people voted that we leave the EU, and the government is tasked with implementing the will of the people on that specific question.
It would be better for everyone if the large number of intelligent people currently trying to undo or veto the result of the referendum, instead worked to help shape the implementation of it.
What should we do? Bankrupt ourselves in advance to get the ball rolling?
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
We can have one - in 7 years. We can't have one in 18 months, that's what our EU diplomatic service chaos said at the start and got fired for being in possession of the facts.
It's not where we could be in 2025 that's the issue. It's where we will be in 17 months that should focus the mind. This isn't a theoretical exercise where if you don't like the result you simply rewrite the rules. We knew the EU rules on trade when we triggered A50, the problem being that the Brexshit dipshitters assumed the rules wouldn't apply to us. Well the do
I voted remain and still want us to remain in the EU however there's no reason why we couldn't have a Canada deal in 18 months if there was a will for it on both sides. Everything is already aligned!
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
We can have one - in 7 years. We can't have one in 18 months, that's what our EU diplomatic service chaos said at the start and got fired for being in possession of the facts.
It's not where we could be in 2025 that's the issue. It's where we will be in 17 months that should focus the mind. This isn't a theoretical exercise where if you don't like the result you simply rewrite the rules. We knew the EU rules on trade when we triggered A50, the problem being that the Brexshit dipshitters assumed the rules wouldn't apply to us. Well the do
It shouldn't take 7 years as standards are currently aligned
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ? In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Twelve, Mr Prasannan, and would have won many more if the Conservatives and Labour had run clean honest campaigns.
The problem was that everybody who feared Corbyn voted Tory; and everybody who feared May voted Labour. Entirely negative voting, and does not show the support you think.
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
We can have one - in 7 years. We can't have one in 18 months, that's what our EU diplomatic service chaos said at the start and got fired for being in possession of the facts.
It's not where we could be in 2025 that's the issue. It's where we will be in 17 months that should focus the mind. This isn't a theoretical exercise where if you don't like the result you simply rewrite the rules. We knew the EU rules on trade when we triggered A50, the problem being that the Brexshit dipshitters assumed the rules wouldn't apply to us. Well the do
A50 was set up by the EU to facilitate exit and future relationship, with a time limit of 2 years. It is therefore perfectly reasonable to expect them to expedite the arrangements to fit within that timeframe.
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ? In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Twelve, Dr Prasannan, and would have won many more if the Conservatives and Labour had run clean honest campaigns.
So the only all-GB party to be openly Remain got a paltry 12 MPs? 12?
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
A Canada style FTA would mean a dramatic diminution in economic activity currently dependent on our place in the internal market of the EU.
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ?
In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
That is desperate garbage. The General Election was about the ineptitude of May and the clever move by Corby n to neutralise the EU question by endorsing leaving including leaving the Single Market
To claim it as a counter to the referendum when over 80% of the voters voted for parties supporting Brexit is just idiotic.
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ? In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Twelve, Mr Prasannan, and would have won many more if the Conservatives and Labour had run clean honest campaigns.
The problem was that everybody who feared Corbyn voted Tory; and everybody who feared May voted Labour. Entirely negative voting, and does not show the support you think.
Hang on, I thought the Conservatives did run an honest campaign and that was the problem!
Both the EU and Britain are being unreasonable and inept.
In the EU's partial defence, they probably don't think it's worth making the effort at present since Britain is so chaotic and unclear in its aims.
True, that is a complicating factor, but the great British public collectively decided, in its infinite wisdom, to leave us with a parliament spectacularly ill-formed for carrying out a complex negotiation.
There's nothing wrong with the balance in Parliament that a halfway competent government couldn't handle.
Theresa May's tenure as Prime Minister could make an excellent play. A woman who recognises the task that she must perform, who in glimpses does the right thing often, but who ultimately did not have the ability to lead the nation at a time when it needed a leader who could clearly articulate what she was seeking to achieve. By speaking to only half the nation, she ultimately has failed it all.
This is in interesting point. May completely misread her task as placating the most intransigent sections of the leave vote - namely the anti-immigration ultras and the fantasists within her own party, rather than building a coalition of pragmatists on both sides and reassuring those who lost that it wouldn't be as bad as all that. The winners got their desire, you reach out to those who it's made fearful. The biggest move in any Brexit poll since the referendum has been from remainers who reluctantly accept the result to advocating a second referendum. It shows how she's calcified rather than healed divides.
This has cost her the Tories majority as socially liberal voters saw Corbyn, for all his myriad faults, as preferable to rewarding the appallingness of many of the leading Brexiteers.
Luckily for her and the Tories, there's probably a floor as socially liberal Tories won't desert to Corbyn en masse. Rebels have been relatively restrained due to their fear of putting him No. 10. But it's terrible for the country as in both parties the lunatics are in charge and the rest of us have to decide between the red devil and the deep blue sea.
If we can't stay in the EU - and I am pretty eurosceptic on the whole but given what has happened since the referendum and the absolutely dismal way the government has handled matters I have very little confidence in the country avoiding disaster - then I would be perfectly OK with staying in both the Single Market and the Customs Union and ending up in some sort of EFTA/EEA/Associate Membership status.
But that does not appear to be on offer from anyone.
Sadly.
The Customs Union is certainly not a good idea as it would prevent us making our own trade deals. None of the EFTA members are in the Customs Union and we would do well to follow their example.
Edit. Indeed staying in the Customs Union would prevent us joining EFTA.
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
A Canada style FTA would mean a dramatic diminution in economic activity currently dependent on our place in the internal market of the EU.
It would hit financial services a bit but every forecast says London would still be the leading financial centre in Europe. Manufacturing and agriculture would be largely unaffected by Brexit with a FTA
Thanks everyone, a genuinely entertaining read as I catch up.The Honda comments - and the way that the likes of HFUYD have treated them - is indicative of what is to come. Fact based reality from the people wo run our economy is that hard Brexit loads so much cost and delay as to make their business untenable in its current form from day 1. "Ah but we'll have an FTA" is the response. Not that anyone who have to negotiate such a thing believe its remotely possible...
So here we are. A fantasy. Vs reality. The good news for "who is correct" questioners is that we don't have long to wait. The "we will have a deal" position will be swept away by the EU not giving us a deal. Then after Christmas the likes of Honda start to pull the plug on the basis of no deal means the end.
Going to be a fun 2018. When the fantasist bullshit hits the wall of reality and starts to slide off, I expect various people here to insist that everything is still according to plan. Its like Comical Ali all over again
If Canada has a FTA without free movement with the EU why on earth can the UK not have one? Especially when the UK will be easily the EU's biggest export market
We can have one - in 7 years. We can't have one in 18 months, that's what our EU diplomatic service chaos said at the start and got fired for being in possession of the facts.
It's not where we could be in 2025 that's the issue. It's where we will be in 17 months that should focus the mind. This isn't a theoretical exercise where if you don't like the result you simply rewrite the rules. We knew the EU rules on trade when we triggered A50, the problem being that the Brexshit dipshitters assumed the rules wouldn't apply to us. Well the do
Which is why May agreed to a transition period until the FAT is completed. We are also ahead of Canada in already having the building blocks for a FTA in place
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
In conclusion Brexit has been far more like Kerplunk than I expected. We've been able to keep pulling straws out for much longer than I expected with nothing happening. I expect the marbles will still collapse but too late for us to learn the lesson. I thought Brexit would be more like falling dominos with the pattern established for all to see at the outset. I didn't think May would be able or willing to keep Brexit in it's all things to all people state for so long. But there is a cut off point. The wave form will collapse on 29/3/17 at the very latest. We'll know what Brexit actually means soon enough and then we'll see. Pace yourselves. All to play for.
In conclusion Brexit has been far more like Kerplunk than I expected. We've been able to keep pulling straws out for much longer than I expected with nothing happening. I expect the marbles will still collapse but too late for us to learn the lesson. I thought Brexit would be more like falling dominos with the pattern established for all to see at the outset. I didn't think May would be able or willing to keep Brexit in it's all things to all people state for so long. But there is a cut off point. The wave form will collapse on 29/3/17 at the very latest. We'll know what Brexit actually means soon enough and then we'll see. Pace yourselves. All to play for.
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
The first one was disbanded in 1988 when the Lib Dems were formed, but then reformed by David Owen immediately. Then the new SDP came behind the Loonies in a by-election in Bootle (site of a famous SDP victory in Crosby) so they collapsed. Then they reformed once more...
In conclusion Brexit has been far more like Kerplunk than I expected. We've been able to keep pulling straws out for much longer than I expected with nothing happening. I expect the marbles will still collapse but too late for us to learn the lesson. I thought Brexit would be more like falling dominos with the pattern established for all to see at the outset. I didn't think May would be able or willing to keep Brexit in it's all things to all people state for so long. But there is a cut off point. The wave form will collapse on 29/3/17 at the very latest. We'll know what Brexit actually means soon enough and then we'll see. Pace yourselves. All to play for.
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
What I expect is that within the next few weeks, the government will make a pretty substantial offer of a financial settlement to the EU. Then, either we'll move to trade talks, or we'll be told to sod off. If the latter, then we'll have to prepare for no deal.
I don't disagree with all that, and I hope you are right that there will be some kind of deal allowing an orderly transition. The trouble is that time is running out: we (both sides) really need to know what we are transitioning to, and we (both sides) need to start getting on with setting up the processes to make it happen. It's already extremely late to start doing so, and for that I blame the EU27 100%; they are the ones refusing to have the discussion which Theresa May wanted to start well before triggering Article 50.
I would put the blame on the EU 60%, and us 40%. I think we started the Brexit process all wrong.
Let me use an analogy. In the old days, before I met my wife, I dated. And this meant that I needed, from time to time, to end relationships.
As a general rule, if you did it by saying that you were leaving them because they were ugly, and what were you thinking when you started dating, then the conversations over who got the cat were bitter and unpleasant.
A good break up was one where you managed to convince the other party that this was the right move for them.
Theresa May seems to have belatedly grasped this with her Florence speech. Going into a break-up saying "well of course Doris will want us to have a good friendship going forward" rarely works. You need to be sensitive to the other person's feelings. Because being rejected hurts.
So: we started it wrong. And then they got huffy and transactional. And then we stuck our tounge out and said "well, we'll go for no deal then". And then they said "dare you!"
We need to do two things: we need to prepare for a No Deal Brexit, even thought the costs would be very considerable; and we need to be more empathetic. We need to couch our language in terms of a solution that works for both the EU and the UK, not to talk about them trying to impose "punishment beatings".
I still think there will be a last minute deal, because no deal at all is very painful for the EU too. But I expect we'll end up hammering investment spending in the UK in 2018 and 2019. I hope that won't tip us into recession.
In conclusion Brexit has been far more like Kerplunk than I expected. We've been able to keep pulling straws out for much longer than I expected with nothing happening. I expect the marbles will still collapse but too late for us to learn the lesson. I thought Brexit would be more like falling dominos with the pattern established for all to see at the outset. I didn't think May would be able or willing to keep Brexit in it's all things to all people state for so long. But there is a cut off point. The wave form will collapse on 29/3/17 at the very latest. We'll know what Brexit actually means soon enough and then we'll see. Pace yourselves. All to play for.
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ? In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Twelve, Mr Prasannan, and would have won many more if the Conservatives and Labour had run clean honest campaigns.
The problem was that everybody who feared Corbyn voted Tory; and everybody who feared May voted Labour. Entirely negative voting, and does not show the support you think.
Hang on, I thought the Conservatives did run an honest campaign and that was the problem!
Come on! Decribing Theresa as "Strong and Stable" isn't entirely honest!
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ? In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Twelve, Mr Prasannan, and would have won many more if the Conservatives and Labour had run clean honest campaigns.
The problem was that everybody who feared Corbyn voted Tory; and everybody who feared May voted Labour. Entirely negative voting, and does not show the support you think.
Hang on, I thought the Conservatives did run an honest campaign and that was the problem!
Aren`t they still being investigated by the Electoral Commission for breaking the rules on telephone canvassing?
Probably nothing will come of it - as it didn`t after the 2015 election when they were guilty of overspending, but the case was not brought to trial because it could not be proved that they knew what the were doing.
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ? In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Twelve, Mr Prasannan, and would have won many more if the Conservatives and Labour had run clean honest campaigns.
The problem was that everybody who feared Corbyn voted Tory; and everybody who feared May voted Labour. Entirely negative voting, and does not show the support you think.
Hang on, I thought the Conservatives did run an honest campaign and that was the problem!
Aren`t they still being investigated by the Electoral Commission for breaking the rules on telephone canvassing?
Probably nothing will come of it - as it didn`t after the 2015 election when they were guilty of overspending, but the case was not brought to trial because it could not be proved that they knew what the were doing.
I really, really hope one of those Conservatives investigated and found innocent sues you, for continuing to impugn their honesty.
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
What I expect is that within the next few weeks, the government will make a pretty substantial offer of a financial settlement to the EU. Then, either we'll move to trade talks, or we'll be told to sod off. If the latter, then we'll have to prepare for no deal.
If May offers the EU 50 billion euros, as suggested and they say sod off I expect 80% of the country would be behind her in saying 'well if that is how you want it fine.'
However given that payment is what Barnier wants to start trade talks I expect talks to start soon after.
I read this on Quora today, and thought it a great anecdote to share. The question was about the similarities between LBJ and Trump:
In 1961 Lyndon Johnson visited Pakistan on a goodwill tour. He plunged into a crowd and began shaking hands, saying as he did so, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime.”
Americans know that a remark like this this is a conversational filler, not intended to be taken literally any more than “How are you?” by anyone other than a doctor is a request for one’s medical history. But a reporter heard Johnson say it to an impoverished camel-cart driver named Bashir Ahmad. The next day the reporter’s newspaper blared the news that the vice president of the United States had invited Ahmad to visit him in Washington.
Now try to envision Donald Trump in Johnson’s place. First, he’s a germophobe. He wouldn’t have shaken hands with a crowd of poor Muslims who only washed their hands when it was time for their daily prayers, and who usually ate with their fingers for lack of flatware.
And even if he’d said, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime,” once it was reported in the Pakistani press he would have called it fake news. Nor would he have invited Ahmad to the White House, much less his Trump Tower penthouse.
Yet Johnson made it happen. He arranged for a charitable foundation to fly Ahmad to the United States, where he met President Kennedy and former President Truman. He also visited the LBJ Ranch. As a final gesture, Johnson routed Ahmad’s flight home through Mecca so that Ahmad, who never could have afforded the trip on his own, could fulfill his religious duty to make the hajj. Ahmad was overcome with gratitude, and the president of Pakistan said Johnson had done more than anyone else to improve U.S.-Pakistani relations.
Now imagine Trump in the same situation. He’s not only not improving relations with countries that are wary of us, he’s alienating longtime allies. He’d certainly never think of treating a Muslim to a visit to Mecca. Not only would his base be horrified, but he’d be convinced that while Ahmad was in Islam’s holiest city, he’d turn into a jihadi who would come back to the United States at his first opportunity and commit a terrorist act.
Johnson made a terrible mistake by deciding to escalate the Vietnam war, and it’s unfortunate that this is what he’s remembered for. But in his ability to connect with and help the less fortunate without worrying that he was somehow debasing himself or betraying his social class, he was more of an alpha male than Trump will ever be.
I have come to the conclusion the set date is a big mistake by TM
It needs to be dropped or modified or she deserves to lose that vote
If she were really cunning something dumb but symbolic like that would be included in order to be defeated, drawing the sting of the rebels and reduce the chances of their having some real impact elsewhere.
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
What I expect is that within the next few weeks, the government will make a pretty substantial offer of a financial settlement to the EU. Then, either we'll move to trade talks, or we'll be told to sod off. If the latter, then we'll have to prepare for no deal.
If UK makes an offer greater than £50bn, then there will be a big shift to Remain. Apart from the fact that we were told that we owed them nothing, large numbers of people will conclude that if a deal with the EU is so important, we might as well stay in.
Nor can we ignore the fact the GE result is chronologically superior to the Referendum result. We were asked to endorse May's Brexit position with a bigger majority and we took away the small majority she had. Was the General Election result not also " the will of the people " ? In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
Remind me: How many MPs did the LibDems win compared to Labour and the Tories?
Twelve, Mr Prasannan, and would have won many more if the Conservatives and Labour had run clean honest campaigns.
The problem was that everybody who feared Corbyn voted Tory; and everybody who feared May voted Labour. Entirely negative voting, and does not show the support you think.
Hang on, I thought the Conservatives did run an honest campaign and that was the problem!
Aren`t they still being investigated by the Electoral Commission for breaking the rules on telephone canvassing?
Probably nothing will come of it - as it didn`t after the 2015 election when they were guilty of overspending, but the case was not brought to trial because it could not be proved that they knew what the were doing.
No - that has been resolved with no further sction
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
What I expect is that within the next few weeks, the government will make a pretty substantial offer of a financial settlement to the EU. Then, either we'll move to trade talks, or we'll be told to sod off. If the latter, then we'll have to prepare for no deal.
If UK makes an offer greater than £50bn, then there will be a big shift to Remain. Apart from the fact that we were told that we owed them nothing, large numbers of people will conclude that if a deal with the EU is so important, we might as well stay in.
No, as a FTA at least ensures an end to free movement, that is not possible in the EU or the single market. The 2 key reasons for voting Leave were to restore sovereignty and gain control of EU immigration, both still possible with a FTA.
I have come to the conclusion the set date is a big mistake by TM
It needs to be dropped or modified or she deserves to lose that vote
If she were really cunning something dumb but symbolic like that would be included in order to be defeated, drawing the sting of the rebels and reduce the chances of their having some real impact elsewhere.
So actually if look at the sheer scale of the change Brexit is, the narrowness of the referendum result, the calamity of the GE result and the fact their has been no Remainer buy in to the core project the real question is this. Why is it going so well ?
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
That is probably because people are still assuming that there will be a deal. But if in December the EU tells Britain that it has not done enough and that the next time to make a decision on even starting trade talks will be in March 2018 barely a year before exit date, then panic is likely to set in. Industries affected will start enacting contingency plans etc. And people will start to realise that time is very short indeed for any sort of deal to be done.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
What I expect is that within the next few weeks, the government will make a pretty substantial offer of a financial settlement to the EU. Then, either we'll move to trade talks, or we'll be told to sod off. If the latter, then we'll have to prepare for no deal.
If UK makes an offer greater than £50bn, then there will be a big shift to Remain. Apart from the fact that we were told that we owed them nothing, large numbers of people will conclude that if a deal with the EU is so important, we might as well stay in.
Unlikely, as it won't be a lump sum, but rather in the form of guarantees and undertakings that will be discharged over several years. I don't think that more than £50 bn. will be offered, in any case.
I read this on Quora today, and thought it a great anecdote to share. The question was about the similarities between LBJ and Trump:
In 1961 Lyndon Johnson visited Pakistan on a goodwill tour. He plunged into a crowd and began shaking hands, saying as he did so, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime.”
Americans know that a remark like this this is a conversational filler, not intended to be taken literally any more than “How are you?” by anyone other than a doctor is a request for one’s medical history. But a reporter heard Johnson say it to an impoverished camel-cart driver named Bashir Ahmad. The next day the reporter’s newspaper blared the news that the vice president of the United States had invited Ahmad to visit him in Washington.
Now try to envision Donald Trump in Johnson’s place. First, he’s a germophobe. He wouldn’t have shaken hands with a crowd of poor Muslims who only washed their hands when it was time for their daily prayers, and who usually ate with their fingers for lack of flatware.
And even if he’d said, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime,” once it was reported in the Pakistani press he would have called it fake news. Nor would he have invited Ahmad to the White House, much less his Trump Tower penthouse.
Yet Johnson made it happen. He arranged for a charitable foundation to fly Ahmad to the United States, where he met President Kennedy and former President Truman. He also visited the LBJ Ranch. As a final gesture, Johnson routed Ahmad’s flight home through Mecca so that Ahmad, who never could have afforded the trip on his own, could fulfill his religious duty to make the hajj. Ahmad was overcome with gratitude, and the president of Pakistan said Johnson had done more than anyone else to improve U.S.-Pakistani relations.
Now imagine Trump in the same situation. He’s not only not improving relations with countries that are wary of us, he’s alienating longtime allies. He’d certainly never think of treating a Muslim to a visit to Mecca. Not only would his base be horrified, but he’d be convinced that while Ahmad was in Islam’s holiest city, he’d turn into a jihadi who would come back to the United States at his first opportunity and commit a terrorist act.
Johnson made a terrible mistake by deciding to escalate the Vietnam war, and it’s unfortunate that this is what he’s remembered for. But in his ability to connect with and help the less fortunate without worrying that he was somehow debasing himself or betraying his social class, he was more of an alpha male than Trump will ever be.
Though to be fair to Trump he was shaking hands with the Communist President of Vietnam this week, which was not something LBJ ever achieved. It was also working class white Americans, not the elite, who got Trump to the White House. Indeed the fathers of many if not most of those Trump 2016 voters would have voted for LBJ in 1964.
I read this on Quora today, and thought it a great anecdote to share. The question was about the similarities between LBJ and Trump:
In 1961 Lyndon Johnson visited Pakistan on a goodwill tour. He plunged into a crowd and began shaking hands, saying as he did so, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime.”
Americans know that a remark like this this is a conversational filler, not intended to be taken literally any more than “How are you?” by anyone other than a doctor is a request for one’s medical history. But a reporter heard Johnson say it to an impoverished camel-cart driver named Bashir Ahmad. The next day the reporter’s newspaper blared the news that the vice president of the United States had invited Ahmad to visit him in Washington.
Now try to envision Donald Trump in Johnson’s place. First, he’s a germophobe. He wouldn’t have shaken hands with a crowd of poor Muslims who only washed their hands when it was time for their daily prayers, and who usually ate with their fingers for lack of flatware.
And even if he’d said, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime,” once it was reported in the Pakistani press he would have called it fake news. Nor would he have invited Ahmad to the White House, much less his Trump Tower penthouse.
Yet Johnson made it happen. He arranged for a charitable foundation to fly Ahmad to the United States, where he met President Kennedy and former President Truman. He also visited the LBJ Ranch. As a final gesture, Johnson routed Ahmad’s flight home through Mecca so that Ahmad, who never could have afforded the trip on his own, could fulfill his religious duty to make the hajj. Ahmad was overcome with gratitude, and the president of Pakistan said Johnson had done more than anyone else to improve U.S.-Pakistani relations.
Now imagine Trump in the same situation. He’s not only not improving relations with countries that are wary of us, he’s alienating longtime allies. He’d certainly never think of treating a Muslim to a visit to Mecca. Not only would his base be horrified, but he’d be convinced that while Ahmad was in Islam’s holiest city, he’d turn into a jihadi who would come back to the United States at his first opportunity and commit a terrorist act.
Johnson made a terrible mistake by deciding to escalate the Vietnam war, and it’s unfortunate that this is what he’s remembered for. But in his ability to connect with and help the less fortunate without worrying that he was somehow debasing himself or betraying his social class, he was more of an alpha male than Trump will ever be.
Good story.
I know that the general view is that every generation thinks that their politicians are the worst, but I'm really beginning to wonder.
Comments
At a macro level the country will be screwed which really saddens me.
At a micro level, it's pop corn time watching the swivel eyed loons on here try to convince us black is white.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41989165
It really is up to them, but if they won't talk about the on-going relationship, what is the UK government supposed to do? On any vaguely sane assessment, we should have started with talks about the post-Brexit relationship months ago, since everything else follows from that.
"MPs voted to keep Clause 1 of the bill by 318 votes to 68. Clause 1 is a single line saying that the European Communities Act 1972 will be repealed on exit day."
So Lab again (officially) abstained as per 1st vote.
As per 1st vote - Govt got 318 - the precise number needed to win.
650 - 7 SF - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers = 635 max vote. So 318 to win if everyone votes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-41971478
Or do you expect Remain supporters to provide a Brexit future that caters to their prejudices too?
Of course in these circumstances bad feeling will be engendered on both sides, which is precisely my point. I expect it to to get increasingly heated, which is one reason why I think talk of reversing Brexit or eventually rejoining is a complete fantasy. (The other reason of course is that the mechanism just doesn't work).
I suspect what might be awkward is alluding to the death of his father in a joke/jibe.
But weren't a trade deal a shoo-in ? We were told that the EU had no choice because of our trade deficit with them. It is not turning out that way , is it ?
BMW will still be exported to the UK. Will Nissan be exported to the EU ?
I think that if the EU side try and act punitively (planes grounded, cars not allowed to be imported etc.) we have a very good case at a WTO arbitration panel, which we need to initiate as soon as possible.
https://twitter.com/TheSDPUK
There aren't that many Con rebels.
Con officially 318 (ignore whip removal) + 10 DUP + (approx) 7 Lab vote with Govt = 335 - 2 Speakers - 2 tellers = 331.
So 318 implies 13 missing which looks greater than number of rebels.
Its not the EU shifting the goalposts, its us being William Webb Ellis picking the football up and the complaining about being sent of for handball. I fully expect that legally we will have no problem exporting cars to the EU. The problem is that we won't be. Because the just in time free movement regime that Honda, Mini, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, JLR etc are built on won't be there. Even if these companies are able to vastly increase their inventories to cope with the huge delays caused by a fixed border, the cost will be enough to switch production elsewhere. Honda have laid that out explicitly today and it takes a special kind of moron to insist they know more about the car industry than a car manufacturer does.
I've been warning about this for months. The physical delay caused by a hard border and the costs of the delays will stop many sectors of the industry dead. And even ones we need like food will be thrown into chaos. At the parliamentary reception I went to a few weeks back I discussed Brexit implications with a senior industry person who corrected my timeline for chaos. We'll be short on various foodstuffs inside a week. That's the industry assessment of a physical border with the EU.
But what do they know...
In fact the Lib Dems dislike her almost ad much as Labour!
Could be relevant for a future coalition.
I would like to think that were the boot on the other foot I could have behaved the same way but I have my doubts.
In the EU's partial defence, they probably don't think it's worth making the effort at present since Britain is so chaotic and unclear in its aims.
Brazil 1.62
Draw 4.2
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.136593726
But that does not appear to be on offer from anyone.
Sadly.
If your extreme Brexit based on 52% is now meeting it's inevitable imperial overstretch moment that's not my fault. It's yours.
Theresa May's tenure as Prime Minister could make an excellent play. A woman who recognises the task that she must perform, who in glimpses does the right thing often, but who ultimately did not have the ability to lead the nation at a time when it needed a leader who could clearly articulate what she was seeking to achieve. By speaking to only half the nation, she ultimately has failed it all.
She didn't. She decided - apparently on her own - what Brexit should mean. She didn't involve anyone in her Cabinet, let alone the country. And she rushed towards the triggering of Article 50 without doing any of the necessary preparatory work. And as the cherry on top she put in charge a trio of the most egomaniacal and useless clowns ever appointed to public office. (OK not as bad as Berlusconi - but not far off.). And since then, every time she has been challenged, there has been a lot of stupid and laughable willy waving.
It is utterly inept and embarrassing. I may be naive but there was a sensible way in which the referendum result could have been approached and implemented. Not any more. It would be a gross act of irresponsibility to allow Britain to crash out and cause damage to its economy and to many of its citizens. It is time for serious politicians to speak some truths to the electorate and try and salvage something from this sorry mess.
In less than a year the will of the people was a sub 4% winning margin in a national referendum followed by a Hung Parliament. Again the voters rejected the Status Quo but didn't agree on what should replace it. We're all shrieking about politics being in crisis but ignoring the fact the electorate keeps voting for crisis.
So right now we have a simple set of options. Withdraw A50. Agree to stay in the customs union. Or prep for hard borders. As we physically can't operate with hard borders that leaves the other two options. And as we go into 2018 and business starts to stut up shop ahesd of the apocalypse, opinions will converge around the remaining options. That's why the Tory position is so laughably untenable
A Corbyn Labour government propped up by the LDs and the SNP would at least leave the Tories with opposition all to themselves
Has the Brexit project altered it's course to reflect the fact not only that it was but remains deeply divisive ?
LDs fairly luke warm about Vince too.
Time for a fresh Lamb.
It's not where we could be in 2025 that's the issue. It's where we will be in 17 months that should focus the mind. This isn't a theoretical exercise where if you don't like the result you simply rewrite the rules. We knew the EU rules on trade when we triggered A50, the problem being that the Brexshit dipshitters assumed the rules wouldn't apply to us. Well the do
On any objective basis we should be seeing capital flight and a much bigger devaluation by now as well as far more professional politicans trying to flee the blast radius instead of meekly carrying out the will of the people. The Markets seem to have priced in eventual sanity and under priced the trains of August.
I predicted disaster and still do. But I have to admit by November 2017 it's been a smoother ride so far than I predicted.
The problem was that everybody who feared Corbyn voted Tory; and everybody who feared May voted Labour. Entirely negative voting, and does not show the support you think.
A50 was set up by the EU to facilitate exit and future relationship, with a time limit of 2 years. It is therefore perfectly reasonable to expect them to expedite the arrangements to fit within that timeframe.
To claim it as a counter to the referendum when over 80% of the voters voted for parties supporting Brexit is just idiotic.
This has cost her the Tories majority as socially liberal voters saw Corbyn, for all his myriad faults, as preferable to rewarding the appallingness of many of the leading Brexiteers.
Luckily for her and the Tories, there's probably a floor as socially liberal Tories won't desert to Corbyn en masse. Rebels have been relatively restrained due to their fear of putting him No. 10. But it's terrible for the country as in both parties the lunatics are in charge and the rest of us have to decide between the red devil and the deep blue sea.
Edit. Indeed staying in the Customs Union would prevent us joining EFTA.
I am hopeless at predictions. I thought there would be a lot more sense on both sides of this negotiation than there has been. But if there is going to be some sort of a crisis, some sort of a "Holy Jesus: we really are up shit creek without a paddle!" moment then I suspect it will come in Q1 2018.
I hope I'm wrong. But we have incompetent loons in charge.........
There's a 'Continuation Liberal Party' too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_(UK,_1989)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(UK,_1988)
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/11/06/appeaser-may-pay-50-billion-brexit-divorce-bill/
It needs to be dropped or modified or she deserves to lose that vote
Let me use an analogy. In the old days, before I met my wife, I dated. And this meant that I needed, from time to time, to end relationships.
As a general rule, if you did it by saying that you were leaving them because they were ugly, and what were you thinking when you started dating, then the conversations over who got the cat were bitter and unpleasant.
A good break up was one where you managed to convince the other party that this was the right move for them.
Theresa May seems to have belatedly grasped this with her Florence speech. Going into a break-up saying "well of course Doris will want us to have a good friendship going forward" rarely works. You need to be sensitive to the other person's feelings. Because being rejected hurts.
So: we started it wrong. And then they got huffy and transactional. And then we stuck our tounge out and said "well, we'll go for no deal then". And then they said "dare you!"
We need to do two things: we need to prepare for a No Deal Brexit, even thought the costs would be very considerable; and we need to be more empathetic. We need to couch our language in terms of a solution that works for both the EU and the UK, not to talk about them trying to impose "punishment beatings".
I still think there will be a last minute deal, because no deal at all is very painful for the EU too. But I expect we'll end up hammering investment spending in the UK in 2018 and 2019. I hope that won't tip us into recession.
Probably nothing will come of it - as it didn`t after the 2015 election when they were guilty of overspending, but the case was not brought to trial because it could not be proved that they knew what the were doing.
However given that payment is what Barnier wants to start trade talks I expect talks to start soon after.
In 1961 Lyndon Johnson visited Pakistan on a goodwill tour. He plunged into a crowd and began shaking hands, saying as he did so, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime.”
Americans know that a remark like this this is a conversational filler, not intended to be taken literally any more than “How are you?” by anyone other than a doctor is a request for one’s medical history. But a reporter heard Johnson say it to an impoverished camel-cart driver named Bashir Ahmad. The next day the reporter’s newspaper blared the news that the vice president of the United States had invited Ahmad to visit him in Washington.
Now try to envision Donald Trump in Johnson’s place. First, he’s a germophobe. He wouldn’t have shaken hands with a crowd of poor Muslims who only washed their hands when it was time for their daily prayers, and who usually ate with their fingers for lack of flatware.
And even if he’d said, “Y’all come to Washington and see us sometime,” once it was reported in the Pakistani press he would have called it fake news. Nor would he have invited Ahmad to the White House, much less his Trump Tower penthouse.
Yet Johnson made it happen. He arranged for a charitable foundation to fly Ahmad to the United States, where he met President Kennedy and former President Truman. He also visited the LBJ Ranch. As a final gesture, Johnson routed Ahmad’s flight home through Mecca so that Ahmad, who never could have afforded the trip on his own, could fulfill his religious duty to make the hajj. Ahmad was overcome with gratitude, and the president of Pakistan said Johnson had done more than anyone else to improve U.S.-Pakistani relations.
Now imagine Trump in the same situation. He’s not only not improving relations with countries that are wary of us, he’s alienating longtime allies. He’d certainly never think of treating a Muslim to a visit to Mecca. Not only would his base be horrified, but he’d be convinced that while Ahmad was in Islam’s holiest city, he’d turn into a jihadi who would come back to the United States at his first opportunity and commit a terrorist act.
Johnson made a terrible mistake by deciding to escalate the Vietnam war, and it’s unfortunate that this is what he’s remembered for. But in his ability to connect with and help the less fortunate without worrying that he was somehow debasing himself or betraying his social class, he was more of an alpha male than Trump will ever be.
But of course that sentence starts with 'if'.
Con 303
Ind (Con) 2 (whip withdrawn)
DUP 10
Lab 3
Con total (inc whip withdrawn) = 318 - 2 Speakers - 2 tellers = 314.
Actual = 305 - so 9 abstained.
Only 3 Lab with Govt - Field, Hoey, Stringer.
If Govt only gets 3 Lab on key vote then 10 Con against required for defeat.
But should get more than 3 I think.
I know that the general view is that every generation thinks that their politicians are the worst, but I'm really beginning to wonder.