TM's legacy will be fascinating to pick over when the time comes, she possibly wont even write a memoir. I'm not sure any Tory could do any better at holding the party steady(ish) at what is probably their most difficult period in government since the Maastricht votes and Major's dwindling majority of the mid 1990s.
I cant remember who said it, but this was probably the election not to win - I cant see any governing party being thanked by the electorate in say 4-5 years time.
A trigger event is what is needed for the Tories to commit regicide.....no idea what it will be though. Shapps's bumbling attempt a few weeks ago means the next one will be ruthless and sudden, then again TM whilst walking on Boxing Day may just decide she's had enough...I know if I was in my 60s running the country the idea just seems a nightmare(then again look at HRH)
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
I'd agree with the analysis, then again who knows.....maybe she'll go onto something else, I cant see her doing a May foundation either....more likely head of the National Trust or WI? Cameron seems like a spare guest at a wedding if I am honest, trouble with being a young(ish) PM
OGH - Do you mean 'Grant Shapps' rather than 'Gavin Shapps?'
Whatever you call him he's an utter fool. Remember that time he posted comments claiming to be a Liberal Democrat under his own name, then claimed his account had been hacked as his password was 1234?
If he's the best May's enemies can come up with she's safe enough for now.
And today of course she surpasses the Earl of Rosebery in 1895 for length of tenure - just 270 days to go to beat Eden!
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
When compaing withn Eden, Eden was a very sick man. However he did leave an unexpected legacy. he encouraged John Prescot to go intom pol;itics!
Who was also, in some quite significant ways, rather a sick man.
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
Theresa May is safe until a) she decides she's had enough or b) Brexit looks like it will have an OK resolution. Otherwise, why would you agitiate to get the top job - and walk straight into a kicking from the voters? Being remembered as the shortest ever PM who let in Jeremy Corbyn - and consequently, facilitated the UK's biggest ever economic disaster - hardly an attractive epitaph is it, Boris?
When compaing withn Eden, Eden was a very sick man. However he did leave an unexpected legacy. he encouraged John Prescot to go intom pol;itics!
Who was also, in some quite significant ways, rather a sick man.
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
I suspect Prescot is an example of the Peter principle.... promoted just above his abilities. To be fair, though, I don’t recall the Temple shenanigans as non-consensual, although I don’t think Prescot was ever going to leave Pauline. And Parkinson’s playing away did significantly affect his career.
Theresa May is safe until a) she decides she's had enough or b) Brexit looks like it will have an OK resolution. Otherwise, why would you agitiate to get the top job - and walk straight into a kicking from the voters? Being remembered as the shortest ever PM who let in Jeremy Corbyn - and consequently, facilitated the UK's biggest ever economic disaster - hardly an attractive epitaph is it, Boris?
Theresa May: on and on..... Nailed on.
Yes, no one sane would want to take the job at the moment.
Theresa May is safe until a) she decides she's had enough or b) Brexit looks like it will have an OK resolution. Otherwise, why would you agitiate to get the top job - and walk straight into a kicking from the voters? Being remembered as the shortest ever PM who let in Jeremy Corbyn - and consequently, facilitated the UK's biggest ever economic disaster - hardly an attractive epitaph is it, Boris?
Theresa May: on and on..... Nailed on.
Yes, no one sane would want to take the job at the moment.
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
Within my circles, the stratification is between people who have property and those who don't. The people who own property and have lived in London will normally stay there. If you have a house in a nice area you will probably stay put. People who missed the opportunity to buy property when it was affordable (ie early 00's, brief period in 2009/2010) have to move out.
I worked in London in the early 00's and property was certainly not affordable then. I changed jobs moved to another city and had bought a house within a year.
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
Shed? A hand-built shepherd's hut, please....
Hand-crafted rustic shepherd's abode.
Where did you learn marketing?!
It does look rather comfy for a home office. Dave has had the good grace to keep quiet about his successor, so far at least.
F1: grargh. Early tips were green, race weekend ones red. A bet I had on Hamilton for the title should've paid out, and Bottas has also won the tip I made pre-season (top 3 at effectively 4/1).
The silly and tiny stakes bets I had on Ocon/Sainz/Hulkenberg to be top 2 (1001 to win each way) came closer than I thought. Force India were unlucky/screwed up their pit stop timing. If they'd done that better to keep Ocon ahead of Raikkonen and Verstappen's engine had gone, it would've come off.
Obviously that's two extra contingencies, but the odds on those things both happening at not over 300/1.
Could we see a reshuffle within days? Telegraph reporting it is an "open secret" that two Cabinet ministers are involved in sexual harassment allegations.
Could we see a reshuffle within days? Telegraph reporting it is an "open secret" that two Cabinet ministers are involved in sexual harassment allegations.
I must admit, it could be very helpful for TM if a certain Cabinet Minister was "named" so to speak......
Could we see a reshuffle within days? Telegraph reporting it is an "open secret" that two Cabinet ministers are involved in sexual harassment allegations.
I must admit, it could be very helpful for TM if a certain Cabinet Minister was "named" so to speak......
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
Shed? A hand-built shepherd's hut, please....
Hand-crafted rustic shepherd's abode.
Where did you learn marketing?!
It does look rather comfy for a home office. Dave has had the good grace to keep quiet about his successor, so far at least.
Actually he’s been vaguely supportive with his “given the circs (which could be interpreted any number of ways) right thing to do” tweet on the DUP deal.....unlike Mr “chopped up in my freezer”....
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
Shed? A hand-built shepherd's hut, please....
Hand-crafted rustic shepherd's abode.
Where did you learn marketing?!
It does look rather comfy for a home office. Dave has had the good grace to keep quiet about his successor, so far at least.
Actually he’s been vaguely supportive with his “given the circs (which could be interpreted any number of ways) right thing to do” tweet on the DUP deal.....unlike Mr “chopped up in my freezer”....
When compaing withn Eden, Eden was a very sick man. However he did leave an unexpected legacy. he encouraged John Prescot to go intom pol;itics!
Who was also, in some quite significant ways, rather a sick man.
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
I suspect Prescot is an example of the Peter principle.... promoted just above his abilities. To be fair, though, I don’t recall the Temple shenanigans as non-consensual, although I don’t think Prescot was ever going to leave Pauline. And Parkinson’s playing away did significantly affect his career.
Alan Clark set a high bar for sexual misconduct, but Mrs T shrugged it off. To some ecxtent I think most PMs make a judgment in which loyalty, embarrassment and value of the Minister all play a part. That said. I'm not clear why Clark was rated highly by her - an interesting character and good on animals, but otherwise...
The public is pretty cynical about all this and I doubt if it affects voting very much ("they're all at it"), unless it reaches the criminal levels of child abuse, rape, or comparable behaviour. Doesn't mean that Parliament shouldn't address it properly.
FWIW, I asked my assistant of 13 years, who socialised more than I did, whether she'd ever encountered harassment. She said no, there were quite a few consensual high jinks going on, with some Faustian bargains between ambitious aides and lecherous politicians, but she never saw or encountered any actual harassment.
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I'm guessing none because the market leaders are all American companies.
When compaing withn Eden, Eden was a very sick man. However he did leave an unexpected legacy. he encouraged John Prescot to go intom pol;itics!
Who was also, in some quite significant ways, rather a sick man.
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
I suspect Prescot is an example of the Peter principle.... promoted just above his abilities. To be fair, though, I don’t recall the Temple shenanigans as non-consensual, although I don’t think Prescot was ever going to leave Pauline. And Parkinson’s playing away did significantly affect his career.
Alan Clark set a high bar for sexual misconduct, but Mrs T shrugged it off. To some ecxtent I think most PMs make a judgment in which loyalty, embarrassment and value of the Minister all play a part. That said. I'm not clear why Clark was rated highly by her - an interesting character and good on animals, but otherwise...
The public is pretty cynical about all this and I doubt if it affects voting very much ("they're all at it"), unless it reaches the criminal levels of child abuse, rape, or comparable behaviour. Doesn't mean that Parliament shouldn't address it properly.
FWIW, I asked my assistant of 13 years, who socialised more than I did, whether she'd ever encountered harassment. She said no, there were quite a few consensual high jinks going on, with some Faustian bargains between ambitious aides and lecherous politicians, but she never saw or encountered any actual harassment.
I can believe the Faustian bargains bit. Maybe later some of them were regretted! Or not wholly kept and there’s some buyers regret!
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I thought major parts of Obama care IT data provision were underage by a Canadian company , but I could be very wrong about that, but I thought i remember surprise a major government contract on that went to non amercans.
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I'm guessing none because the market leaders are all American companies.
The story is a little surprising because we have been told that the Data Commissioner requires privileged information to be stored in the EU unless you are able to immediately produce evidence that the storage out of the EU meets all EU regulations. Frankly this looks like protectionism to me too but I am not clear why this hurdle did not apply to the government.
Of course Howard polled 33% in 2005 which was barely any change from the 34% the Tories were on with IDS in his final poll as leader so changing leaders does not always bring a net benefit. Indeed none of the alternatives to May poll any better which partly explains why she is still there.
If there is to be a vote of no confidence, certainly before Brexit, this time Davis would be likely to become Tory leader.
Very close now between 6th and 8th in the Constructors', just six points in it. Dire race for Renault. Could've easily had 20 odd points, ended up with zero.
When compaing withn Eden, Eden was a very sick man. However he did leave an unexpected legacy. he encouraged John Prescot to go intom pol;itics!
Who was also, in some quite significant ways, rather a sick man.
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
I suspect Prescot is an example of the Peter principle.... promoted just above his abilities. To be fair, though, I don’t recall the Temple shenanigans as non-consensual, although I don’t think Prescot was ever going to leave Pauline. And Parkinson’s playing away did significantly affect his career.
Alan Clark set a high bar for sexual misconduct, but Mrs T shrugged it off. To some ecxtent I think most PMs make a judgment in which loyalty, embarrassment and value of the Minister all play a part. That said. I'm not clear why Clark was rated highly by her - an interesting character and good on animals, but otherwise...
The public is pretty cynical about all this and I doubt if it affects voting very much ("they're all at it"), unless it reaches the criminal levels of child abuse, rape, or comparable behaviour. Doesn't mean that Parliament shouldn't address it properly.
FWIW, I asked my assistant of 13 years, who socialised more than I did, whether she'd ever encountered harassment. She said no, there were quite a few consensual high jinks going on, with some Faustian bargains between ambitious aides and lecherous politicians, but she never saw or encountered any actual harassment.
I can believe the Faustian bargains bit. Maybe later some of them were regretted! Or not wholly kept and there’s some buyers regret!
And those that are regretted or did not produce enough quid for the quo can very easily morph into allegations of harassment now.
F1: grargh. Early tips were green, race weekend ones red. A bet I had on Hamilton for the title should've paid out, and Bottas has also won the tip I made pre-season (top 3 at effectively 4/1).
The silly and tiny stakes bets I had on Ocon/Sainz/Hulkenberg to be top 2 (1001 to win each way) came closer than I thought. Force India were unlucky/screwed up their pit stop timing. If they'd done that better to keep Ocon ahead of Raikkonen and Verstappen's engine had gone, it would've come off.
Obviously that's two extra contingencies, but the odds on those things both happening at not over 300/1.
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I thought major parts of Obama care IT data provision were underage by a Canadian company , but I could be very wrong about that, but I thought i remember surprise a major government contract on that went to non amercans.
Canadian CGI was one of the developers although I think the work was done by an American subsidiary they'd bought. I believe it is hosted in American datacentres (and not involving CGI).
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I'm guessing none because the market leaders are all American companies.
The story is a little surprising because we have been told that the Data Commissioner requires privileged information to be stored in the EU unless you are able to immediately produce evidence that the storage out of the EU meets all EU regulations. Frankly this looks like protectionism to me too but I am not clear why this hurdle did not apply to the government.
US cloud companies (the big ones) have datacentres in Europe.
TM's legacy will be fascinating to pick over when the time comes, she possibly wont even write a memoir. I'm not sure any Tory could do any better at holding the party steady(ish) at what is probably their most difficult period in government since the Maastricht votes and Major's dwindling majority of the mid 1990s.
I cant remember who said it, but this was probably the election not to win - I cant see any governing party being thanked by the electorate in say 4-5 years time.
A trigger event is what is needed for the Tories to commit regicide.....no idea what it will be though. Shapps's bumbling attempt a few weeks ago means the next one will be ruthless and sudden, then again TM whilst walking on Boxing Day may just decide she's had enough...I know if I was in my 60s running the country the idea just seems a nightmare(then again look at HRH)
It is the winner of the next general election who will have to deal with the consequences of Brexit, the winner of the last general election just had to negotiate it and any FTA and transition
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I'm guessing none because the market leaders are all American companies.
Ah, but if HMG used (or even established and later privatised) a UK equivalent, there would be.
One reason American companies do so well is that often they have hidden support from the government in their early stages. Elon Musk has raised the bar in space travel and electric cars but Uncle Sam is signing his cheques. We should look and learn.
But IDS never lost the Tories their majority after calling an unnecessary general election.
Had IDS led the Tory party in 2005 it is possible we could have finished third in the popular vote.
IDS did better than expected at the local elections. The idea that Howard saved the Tories in 2005 is a classic example of history being written by the victors.
Could we see a reshuffle within days? Telegraph reporting it is an "open secret" that two Cabinet ministers are involved in sexual harassment allegations.
I must admit, it could be very helpful for TM if a certain Cabinet Minister was "named" so to speak......
As I said the other day, there’s going to need to be a very fine line drawn between getting rid of perverts, allowing due process for allegations and a witch hunt.
The reason Weinstein was taken down was because of multiple allegations from unconnected women, it would need something similar to take down a Cabinet minister.
But IDS never lost the Tories their majority after calling an unnecessary general election.
Had IDS led the Tory party in 2005 it is possible we could have finished third in the popular vote.
IDS did better than expected at the local elections. The idea that Howard saved the Tories in 2005 is a classic example of history being written by the victors.
Theresa May is safe until a) she decides she's had enough or b) Brexit looks like it will have an OK resolution. Otherwise, why would you agitiate to get the top job - and walk straight into a kicking from the voters? Being remembered as the shortest ever PM who let in Jeremy Corbyn - and consequently, facilitated the UK's biggest ever economic disaster - hardly an attractive epitaph is it, Boris? Theresa May: on and on..... Nailed on.
I rather thought were were already facing the UK`s biggest ever economic disaster... 100% home-made by the Conservative Party.
Do you mean that things will get even worse if Corbyn becomes PM?
Could we see a reshuffle within days? Telegraph reporting it is an "open secret" that two Cabinet ministers are involved in sexual harassment allegations.
I must admit, it could be very helpful for TM if a certain Cabinet Minister was "named" so to speak......
As I said the other day, there’s going to need to be a very fine line drawn between getting rid of perverts, allowing due process for allegations and a witch hunt.
The reason Weinstein was taken down was because of multiple allegations from unconnected women, it would need something similar to take down a Cabinet minister.
Quite right, but it would certainly "wing" any potential leadership bids with even the slightest hint of sexual misbehaviour or scandal. I know of one or two who already have history in this area....I cant help but feel May's letter to Bercow is distancing her already from any need for loyalty etc
It's hardly surprising. There are going to be lots of stories coming out, with abuse and lesser offences in all directions - i.e. not just against women. The really amazing thing is that anyone's surprised given the famous casting-couch culture.
I daresay someone will be along soon to say the victims should have become hairdressers if they didn't want to be felt up by the talent ...
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I'm guessing none because the market leaders are all American companies.
Ah, but if HMG used (or even established and later privatised) a UK equivalent, there would be.
One reason American companies do so well is that often they have hidden support from the government in their early stages. Elon Musk has raised the bar in space travel and electric cars but Uncle Sam is signing his cheques. We should look and learn.
I'm all for the government providing that kind of support to promising early-stage companies here, I just don't think trying to create a PaaS competitior to Amazon and Microsoft would be a clever example of that.
And to be honest, it's always going to only be one part of the story. If we want to replicate what the US has, we'd need to get venture capital flowing as freely here as it does in Silicon Valley
When compaing withn Eden, Eden was a very sick man. However he did leave an unexpected legacy. he encouraged John Prescot to go intom pol;itics!
Who was also, in some quite significant ways, rather a sick man.
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
I suspect Prescot is an example of the Peter principle.... promoted just above his abilities. To be fair, though, I don’t recall the Temple shenanigans as non-consensual, although I don’t think Prescot was ever going to leave Pauline. And Parkinson’s playing away did significantly affect his career.
Alan Clark set a high bar for sexual misconduct, but Mrs T shrugged it off. To some ecxtent I think most PMs make a judgment in which loyalty, embarrassment and value of the Minister all play a part. That said. I'm not clear why Clark was rated highly by her - an interesting character and good on animals, but otherwise...
The public is pretty cynical about all this and I doubt if it affects voting very much ("they're all at it"), unless it reaches the criminal levels of child abuse, rape, or comparable behaviour. Doesn't mean that Parliament shouldn't address it properly.
FWIW, I asked my assistant of 13 years, who socialised more than I did, whether she'd ever encountered harassment. She said no, there were quite a few consensual high jinks going on, with some Faustian bargains between ambitious aides and lecherous politicians, but she never saw or encountered any actual harassment.
I can believe the Faustian bargains bit. Maybe later some of them were regretted! Or not wholly kept and there’s some buyers regret!
And those that are regretted or did not produce enough quid for the quo can very easily morph into allegations of harassment now.
And present a nasty problem for the other half of the bargain...... 'he promised me the party would find me a safe seat.....' 'No I didn’t I promised her I’d try to get the party ........’ Requires some official to come forward and say, yes X MP lobbied for a safe seat for his PA (or something) Which doesn’t rebound to anyone’s credit.
F1: grargh. Early tips were green, race weekend ones red. A bet I had on Hamilton for the title should've paid out, and Bottas has also won the tip I made pre-season (top 3 at effectively 4/1).
The silly and tiny stakes bets I had on Ocon/Sainz/Hulkenberg to be top 2 (1001 to win each way) came closer than I thought. Force India were unlucky/screwed up their pit stop timing. If they'd done that better to keep Ocon ahead of Raikkonen and Verstappen's engine had gone, it would've come off.
Obviously that's two extra contingencies, but the odds on those things both happening at not over 300/1.
Will set about the analysis now.
Morning! I have a hangover today, well done Lewis
Did he solve another murder in Oxford? Nice one. Mind, I think Hathaway is a much more interesting character.
When compaing withn Eden, Eden was a very sick man. However he did leave an unexpected legacy. he encouraged John Prescot to go intom pol;itics!
Who was also, in some quite significant ways, rather a sick man.
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
I suspect Prescot is an example of the Peter principle.... promoted just above his abilities. To be fair, though, I don’t recall the Temple shenanigans as non-consensual, although I don’t think Prescot was ever going to leave Pauline. And Parkinson’s playing away did significantly affect his career.
Alan Clark set a high bar for sexual misconduct, but Mrs T shrugged it off. To some ecxtent I think most PMs make a judgment in which loyalty, embarrassment and value of the Minister all play a part. That said. I'm not clear why Clark was rated highly by her - an interesting character and good on animals, but otherwise...
The public is pretty cynical about all this and I doubt if it affects voting very much ("they're all at it"), unless it reaches the criminal levels of child abuse, rape, or comparable behaviour. Doesn't mean that Parliament shouldn't address it properly.
FWIW, I asked my assistant of 13 years, who socialised more than I did, whether she'd ever encountered harassment. She said no, there were quite a few consensual high jinks going on, with some Faustian bargains between ambitious aides and lecherous politicians, but she never saw or encountered any actual harassment.
Faustian bargains? That makes it sound nice and harmless. It's not. Not only does this sort of behaviour unfairly disadvantage those who are not prepared to offer sexual favours for promotion, it is also hardly proper use of taxpayer-funded expenses. At least Satan wasn't using public funds to buy his souls!
Plaudits I suppose to Theresa May - my recollection of 2003 was it wasn't the Conference Speech that did for IDS (and the poll quoted by HYUFD was taken after the LD Conference that year and before the Labour and Conservative gatherings) but the Brent East by election which saw the Conservative vote squeezed as the anti-Iraq War vote coalesced to the LDs.
Apart from Blair, IDS was probably the most pro-war politician. The Conservatives could see anti-war votes draining away and their prospects of making serious inroads into the Labour majority fading as well. IDS therefore had to go and preferably without a contest.
Howard moved the Party focus onto more domestic affairs and shored up the core vote ensuring that while the 2005 GE was still a heavy defeat, it removed once and for all the prospect of an LD Government and re-established the Conservatives as the alternative Government.
We have discussed on here what might have happened had IDS remained Conservative leader to the 2005 GE. I believe it entirely plausible he would have won fewer seats than Hague.
'Edited a Freesheet' is not a great one either.....
Most successful Finance Minister of the G7
Yeah.....really catchy......so is Never Made PM.....
If that's the criteria you use, then vast numbers of ambitious politicians also fail. Many of whom would probably have been better than those who did become PM.
Plaudits I suppose to Theresa May - my recollection of 2003 was it wasn't the Conference Speech that did for IDS (and the poll quoted by HYUFD was taken after the LD Conference that year and before the Labour and Conservative gatherings) but the Brent East by election which saw the Conservative vote squeezed as the anti-Iraq War vote coalesced to the LDs.
Apart from Blair, IDS was probably the most pro-war politician. The Conservatives could see anti-war votes draining away and their prospects of making serious inroads into the Labour majority fading as well. IDS therefore had to go and preferably without a contest.
Howard moved the Party focus onto more domestic affairs and shored up the core vote ensuring that while the 2005 GE was still a heavy defeat, it removed once and for all the prospect of an LD Government and re-established the Conservatives as the alternative Government.
We have discussed on here what might have happened had IDS remained Conservative leader to the 2005 GE. I believe it entirely plausible he would have won fewer seats than Hague.
A I showed earlier IDS' final poll as leader had the Tories on 35% and Hague got 31% and Howard got 33% so arguably he may have done slightly better than Howard rather than worse than Hague.
Brent East did for him but the Tories still came third there in 2005 under Howard (their candidate was Kwasi Kwarteng)
Success in politics cannot be defined as making it to PM,not least because most people who get there make a hash of it and leave with their reputation diminished.
It's an interesting set of figures - what would be the agreed terms of a successful referendum ? 50 %+1 of all those voting on an agreed turnout or all those eligible to vote - is the electorate restricted only to those currently resident in Catalonia or would it include Catalonians residing elsewhere ?
Does all this sound familiar ?
I presume IF Catalonia does vote in a "negotiated" referendum to break away, it will be much harder for the rest of Spain and the EU to ignore.
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I'm guessing none because the market leaders are all American companies.
The story is a little surprising because we have been told that the Data Commissioner requires privileged information to be stored in the EU unless you are able to immediately produce evidence that the storage out of the EU meets all EU regulations. Frankly this looks like protectionism to me too but I am not clear why this hurdle did not apply to the government.
US cloud companies (the big ones) have datacentres in Europe.
Maybe but they don't warrant that is where your data is going to be held. Of course the government is a rather more important client than me....
Mr. Divvie, that does seem a good way forward, and maybe the only way to settle things properly. But who's speaking for those who want such a vote?
The Spanish Government is all about crushing dissent. The Catalan Government is all about independence.
Iglesias & Podemos seem to be the only ones approaching holding that view in rEsp, though it doesn't seem to be doing them much good in the polls. PSOE are cravenly taking the same nationalist strong arm line as Rajoy & PP.
It's hardly surprising. There are going to be lots of stories coming out, with abuse and lesser offences in all directions - i.e. not just against women. The really amazing thing is that anyone's surprised given the famous casting-couch culture.
I daresay someone will be along soon to say the victims should have become hairdressers if they didn't want to be felt up by the talent ...
I still think the most interesting stories are those that haven’t come out - those of the A-list actresses and models who enthusiastically embraced the casting couch and have been introducing their young friends to the likes of Harvey Weinstein and Terry Richardson. Will they ever be considered part of the problem?
'Edited a Freesheet' is not a great one either.....
Most successful Finance Minister of the G7
Yeah.....really catchy......so is Never Made PM.....
If that's the criteria you use, then vast numbers of ambitious politicians also fail. Many of whom would probably have been better than those who did become PM.
Quite. That clinging on, out of a 'sense of duty' - which one might also see as self-deluded bloody mindedness - should automatically be deemed a desirable thing seems rather strange to me.
On that score, the latest evidence of May's decision making timidity/incompetence ... it appears from reading the press this morning that she is going to neuter Hammond's house building drive which he'd wanted to announce in the budget.
Success in politics cannot be defined as making it to PM,not least because most people who get there make a hash of it and leave with their reputation diminished.
One of the few I’ve come across who left Parliament with his reputation high was Harold Wilson’s Minister of Health, Kenneth Robinson
The Times front page has a story about a government IT director buying Amazon cloud services and then going to work for them. The Times worries (so far as I can see because it is paywalled) about revolving door rules but there is another, unasked question.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
I'm guessing none because the market leaders are all American companies.
The story is a little surprising because we have been told that the Data Commissioner requires privileged information to be stored in the EU unless you are able to immediately produce evidence that the storage out of the EU meets all EU regulations. Frankly this looks like protectionism to me too but I am not clear why this hurdle did not apply to the government.
US cloud companies (the big ones) have datacentres in Europe.
Maybe but they don't warrant that is where your data is going to be held. Of course the government is a rather more important client than me....
US government contracts specify that data servers must be physically located within the USA.
UK givernment is not allowed to do the same, they’re only allowed to specify that data is stored within the EU. Maybe your data’s in a Romanian data centre where those who monitor quality are paid off and those in charge earn €300 a month.
F1: blimey. Betfair already has the 2018 title markets up.
Not really got going yet. Put down 230 for Alonso.
Interestingly, Ladbrokes, which also has a market, has McLaren and Renault drivers shorter than Force India. It's a shame the latter don't have a bit more cash.
I think it's too soon for Renault. They need a bit more time, in my view. None of the Ladbrokes odds tempt me at the moment.
Edited extra bit: I should clarify, those are the odds, not my stake, on Alonso
Theresa May is safe until a) she decides she's had enough or b) Brexit looks like it will have an OK resolution. Otherwise, why would you agitiate to get the top job - and walk straight into a kicking from the voters? Being remembered as the shortest ever PM who let in Jeremy Corbyn - and consequently, facilitated the UK's biggest ever economic disaster - hardly an attractive epitaph is it, Boris? Theresa May: on and on..... Nailed on.
I rather thought were were already facing the UK`s biggest ever economic disaster... 100% home-made by the Conservative Party...
I think the electorate need to take a little of the responsibility ?
No good voting for Brexit and then complaining, should it kill growth for a few years (though it's entirely fair to say the current lot are making a horlicks of the negotiations with the EU). And you can't entirely blame the government for the continuing rise in household debt.
Success in politics cannot be defined as making it to PM,not least because most people who get there make a hash of it and leave with their reputation diminished.
Yes - Eden might have had a reputation as one of the great might-have-beens, had he not actually been PM...
Comments
Asking for a friend....
http://suttonnick.tumblr.com/image/166922729721
I cant remember who said it, but this was probably the election not to win - I cant see any governing party being thanked by the electorate in say 4-5 years time.
A trigger event is what is needed for the Tories to commit regicide.....no idea what it will be though. Shapps's bumbling attempt a few weeks ago means the next one will be ruthless and sudden, then again TM whilst walking on Boxing Day may just decide she's had enough...I know if I was in my 60s running the country the idea just seems a nightmare(then again look at HRH)
May comes very much from a “duty” perspective and if she thinks she can still contribute she’ll want to....no flouncing off to edit freesheets or sitting in a shed for her.....
I'd agree with the analysis, then again who knows.....maybe she'll go onto something else, I cant see her doing a May foundation either....more likely head of the National Trust or WI? Cameron seems like a spare guest at a wedding if I am honest, trouble with being a young(ish) PM
Whatever you call him he's an utter fool. Remember that time he posted comments claiming to be a Liberal Democrat under his own name, then claimed his account had been hacked as his password was 1234?
If he's the best May's enemies can come up with she's safe enough for now.
And today of course she surpasses the Earl of Rosebery in 1895 for length of tenure - just 270 days to go to beat Eden!
I wonder what would have happened to him if the Temple shenanigans had come up in today's climate? Although the same could be said with rather more force about Cecil Parkinson.
Theresa May: on and on..... Nailed on.
And Parkinson’s playing away did significantly affect his career.
Buckle up people.
May staggers on, unwanted and incompetent.
Where did you learn marketing?!
F1: grargh. Early tips were green, race weekend ones red. A bet I had on Hamilton for the title should've paid out, and Bottas has also won the tip I made pre-season (top 3 at effectively 4/1).
The silly and tiny stakes bets I had on Ocon/Sainz/Hulkenberg to be top 2 (1001 to win each way) came closer than I thought. Force India were unlucky/screwed up their pit stop timing. If they'd done that better to keep Ocon ahead of Raikkonen and Verstappen's engine had gone, it would've come off.
Obviously that's two extra contingencies, but the odds on those things both happening at not over 300/1.
Will set about the analysis now.
Could we see a reshuffle within days? Telegraph reporting it is an "open secret" that two Cabinet ministers are involved in sexual harassment allegations.
Kevin Spacey apologises over Anthony Rapp 'sexual advance' claim
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-41799026
The public is pretty cynical about all this and I doubt if it affects voting very much ("they're all at it"), unless it reaches the criminal levels of child abuse, rape, or comparable behaviour. Doesn't mean that Parliament shouldn't address it properly.
FWIW, I asked my assistant of 13 years, who socialised more than I did, whether she'd ever encountered harassment. She said no, there were quite a few consensual high jinks going on, with some Faustian bargains between ambitious aides and lecherous politicians, but she never saw or encountered any actual harassment.
How many US government services are hosted by British providers? I'm guessing the answer is none because of national security masking protectionism. That is a lesson our government (of either party) needs to learn.
If there is to be a vote of no confidence, certainly before Brexit, this time Davis would be likely to become Tory leader.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/mexico-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Very close now between 6th and 8th in the Constructors', just six points in it. Dire race for Renault. Could've easily had 20 odd points, ended up with zero.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/30/irony-english-brexit-britain-identity-politics
Actually, that's happened every season of the hybrid era except 2015. But it's still a bit rubbish.
Next year could be very good, especially if Renault improve their game. If they do, we might have four teams capable of regularly winning races.
Ok, that's not a goer..
IDS' final poll as leader was for Mori on 28th October 2003 it had the Tories on 35%, Labour on 38% and the LDs on 21%
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
Can you guess who wrote it?
One reason American companies do so well is that often they have hidden support from the government in their early stages. Elon Musk has raised the bar in space travel and electric cars but Uncle Sam is signing his cheques. We should look and learn.
The reason Weinstein was taken down was because of multiple allegations from unconnected women, it would need something similar to take down a Cabinet minister.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2003
Do you mean that things will get even worse if Corbyn becomes PM?
I daresay someone will be along soon to say the victims should have become hairdressers if they didn't want to be felt up by the talent ...
Saudi Arabia to allow women into sports stadiums
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41798481
And to be honest, it's always going to only be one part of the story. If we want to replicate what the US has, we'd need to get venture capital flowing as freely here as it does in Silicon Valley
'No I didn’t I promised her I’d try to get the party ........’
Requires some official to come forward and say, yes X MP lobbied for a safe seat for his PA (or something)
Which doesn’t rebound to anyone’s credit.
Plaudits I suppose to Theresa May - my recollection of 2003 was it wasn't the Conference Speech that did for IDS (and the poll quoted by HYUFD was taken after the LD Conference that year and before the Labour and Conservative gatherings) but the Brent East by election which saw the Conservative vote squeezed as the anti-Iraq War vote coalesced to the LDs.
Apart from Blair, IDS was probably the most pro-war politician. The Conservatives could see anti-war votes draining away and their prospects of making serious inroads into the Labour majority fading as well. IDS therefore had to go and preferably without a contest.
Howard moved the Party focus onto more domestic affairs and shored up the core vote ensuring that while the 2005 GE was still a heavy defeat, it removed once and for all the prospect of an LD Government and re-established the Conservatives as the alternative Government.
We have discussed on here what might have happened had IDS remained Conservative leader to the 2005 GE. I believe it entirely plausible he would have won fewer seats than Hague.
Expect more to come out on budget day.
https://twitter.com/lizcastro/status/924921814580715520
The Spanish Government is all about crushing dissent. The Catalan Government is all about independence.
https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/924772675087687680
Brent East did for him but the Tories still came third there in 2005 under Howard (their candidate was Kwasi Kwarteng)
Does all this sound familiar ?
I presume IF Catalonia does vote in a "negotiated" referendum to break away, it will be much harder for the rest of Spain and the EU to ignore.
That clinging on, out of a 'sense of duty' - which one might also see as self-deluded bloody mindedness - should automatically be deemed a desirable thing seems rather strange to me.
On that score, the latest evidence of May's decision making timidity/incompetence ... it appears from reading the press this morning that she is going to neuter Hammond's house building drive which he'd wanted to announce in the budget.
UK givernment is not allowed to do the same, they’re only allowed to specify that data is stored within the EU. Maybe your data’s in a Romanian data centre where those who monitor quality are paid off and those in charge earn €300 a month.
Not really got going yet. Put down 230 for Alonso.
Interestingly, Ladbrokes, which also has a market, has McLaren and Renault drivers shorter than Force India. It's a shame the latter don't have a bit more cash.
I think it's too soon for Renault. They need a bit more time, in my view. None of the Ladbrokes odds tempt me at the moment.
Edited extra bit: I should clarify, those are the odds, not my stake, on Alonso
No good voting for Brexit and then complaining, should it kill growth for a few years (though it's entirely fair to say the current lot are making a horlicks of the negotiations with the EU). And you can't entirely blame the government for the continuing rise in household debt.
Yes - Eden might have had a reputation as one of the great might-have-beens, had he not actually been PM...