Every Conservative leader from Disraeli to Howard knew that.
Going well so far. Lot rests on Javid if that is the case.
Well, tax changes mean that buy to let is now much less attractive; private house building has picked up sharply, immigration from the EU is falling, and the death rate among older people will shortly rise, bringing more properties on to the Market. So, I would expect housing to become more affordable in coming years.
And many of that 10% assumed that Britain would dominate such a political union.
Yep. So much pro EEC support amongst that faction was based on those who had never reconciled the loss of Empire and had the arrogance ti helueve we coukd rulecEurope instead.
Indeed.
I remember reading a biography of Heath written in 1973, it ended saying something like 'Heath could look forward to Britain leading a united Europe able to face down both the Soviet Union and the USA.'
Mr. HYUFD, not sure I agree. The EU will integrate more and other countries will be worried about leaving. I expect the mechanism of departure to be either better defined or abolished altogether (or deliberately skewed so it's even more in the EU's favour than Article 50) to this end.
So, could I ask therefore, if that does happen, do we get a final set of Euros of 2019 (or does the UK withdraw from the European Parliament in March 2019)?
I don't know what is the "that" you are referring to, but I'll have a stab.
As things stand, the UK component of the European Parliament elections in 2019 will not take place and the existing UK MEPs will leave the Parliament.
If Theresa May's proposed transition deal is accepted, then the situation is the same: no EParl elections, no UK MEPs in March(?) 2019.
Any other arrangements not involving the postponement/revocation of Art50: then the situation is the same: no blah blah...
Any arrangements that does involve the postponement/revocation of Art50: dunno, and I'm not betting on it...
Or alternatively, even if we do crash out, we could still leave the border open and wait to see if the EU demands that the Irish put up border posts.
Thank goodness somebody else gets it! I've been banging on for weeks about how people comprehensively misunderstand tariffs[1]. The question is not simply whether we will enforce a ROI/NI border and impose tariffs on goods coming into NI, but whether Dublin will enforce one and impose tariffs on goods going out of NI.
This is a big question...which is I think one of the reasons why Varadkar is not having a good time.
[1] they are a tax imposed by the domestic government on domestic taxpayers who purchase goods coming in, NOT imposed by the foreign government on foreign manufacturers on goods going out.
Under WTO rules there is no choice, is there? Both sides have to.
Good point. What do you think will happen?
The UK and/or the EU will be subject to a complaint, the case will be heard by the WTO and the UK and/or the EU will be told to apply the relevant tariffs. If they don't they will face action. Not imposing tariffs discriminates against other WTO member states who do have to pay them.
Not if the tariffs are removed for everyone in a particular sector.
True - but that would have to apply to all countries and at all UK borders. That is a very big undertaking and one that has huge implications.
Or alternatively, even if we do crash out, we could still leave the border open and wait to see if the EU demands that the Irish put up border posts.
Thank goodness somebody else gets it! I've been banging on for weeks about how people comprehensively misunderstand tariffs[1]. The question is not simply whether we will enforce a ROI/NI border and impose tariffs on goods coming into NI, but whether Dublin will enforce one and impose tariffs on goods going out of NI.
This is a big question...which is I think one of the reasons why Varadkar is not having a good time.
[1] they are a tax imposed by the domestic government on domestic taxpayers who purchase goods coming in, NOT imposed by the foreign government on foreign manufacturers on goods going out.
Under WTO rules there is no choice, is there? Both sides have to.
Good point. What do you think will happen?
The UK and/or the EU will be subject to a complaint, the case will be heard by the WTO and the UK and/or the EU will be told to apply the relevant tariffs. If they don't they will face action. Not imposing tariffs discriminates against other WTO member states who do have to pay them.
Not if the tariffs are removed for everyone in a particular sector.
True - but that would have to apply to all countries and at all UK borders. That is a very big undertaking and one that has huge implications.
Just so I understand. With no customs what is our policy on Chinese counterfeit medicines for example.
Every Conservative leader from Disraeli to Howard knew that.
Going well so far. Lot rests on Javid if that is the case.
Well, tax changes mean that buy to let is now much less attractive; private house building has picked up sharply, immigration from the EU is falling, and the death rate among older people will shortly rise, bringing more properties on to the Market. So, I would expect housing to become more affordable in coming years.
Why will the death rate amongst older people rise soon?
New Zealand general election results with 81% in, voteshare and projected seats (changes from 2014 in brackets)
National 46% (-1%) 58 seats (-2) Labour 36% (+11%) 45 seats (+13) NZ First 7% (-1%) 9 seats (-2) Greens 6% (-5%) 7 seats (-7)
So Jacinda Ardern has made as big a voteshare gain as Corbyn did in June but like him her gains came mainly from minor parties rather than the main Conservative Party with National's voteshare only fractionally down from a higher base than the UK Tories started from. http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
It looks like English will have to do a deal with NZ First to be assured of a majority in Parliament but he should stay PM. Like May he is more of a traditional conservative than his predecessor, the more Cameroon John Key
An interesting result, and something remarkably similar to the UK result in June. The Conservatives will hold power with a reduced mandate.
The real losers from yesterday are Labour. The PM has basically adopted Labour's transition policy. So how does Labour oppose now without opposing Brexit? As we know, the leadership is pro-Brexit, the membership is anti.
The situation is fluid. The idea that May has found the definitive, final approach is absurd. Labour chalks this up as a win and Starmer finds the next place he wants to nudge them.
It's a myth this is a Labour win, still more that Starmer forced her onto this position.
The debate has been entirely within the cabinet, where transition has been discussed for over a year, and Labour's position (or, should I say, positions, since there have been several) wholly irrelevant.
We will simply relearn all the same lessons about why we joined in the first place before coming to the same conclusion that we need to get to the heart of the EU and stay there.
Given that people remain hostile to the politics after 45 years of membership, that's unlikely.
And this process of leaving will alienate people further from the EU. it makes ever rejoicing an impossible pipe dream for the Europhiles.
er.
Neither the BBC nor any other part of the Broadcast media is pro-Brexit. Three of the four broadsheets are anti-Brexit and it is only the comics and the rags that have been pro-Brexit.
And yet in spite of all of this Leave not only won but have maintained or increased support for us to Leave.
Your whole hypothesis is predicated on exactly the same myths and misreading that resulted in Remain losing in 2016.
No it isn't. The referendum result was a reflection of the mood of the country in 2016. It won't remain the same. And it only has to shift a little in the direction of the EU for any future referendum to be unwinnable by the leavers. It wasn't that long after the 1975 referendum that the Labour Party went to the country pledged to leave the EU. Had they won we would have left back in the eighties. Nobody at the time said that they couldn't do so because of the prior referendum result. Brexit looks secure at the moment because neither of the big parties have come out in favour of rejoining. But how long will that be the case? It is, as I said, easy to see Labour switching. It isn't that inconceivable that the Tories might.
Every Conservative leader from Disraeli to Howard knew that.
Going well so far. Lot rests on Javid if that is the case.
Well, tax changes mean that buy to let is now much less attractive; private house building has picked up sharply, immigration from the EU is falling, and the death rate among older people will shortly rise, bringing more properties on to the Market. So, I would expect housing to become more affordable in coming years.
Why will the death rate amongst older people rise soon?
Because the older people are getting older. Some baby boomers are now reaching or in their seventies already.
Even as life expectancy continues to age, as the older generation transitions from those who survived the war to the baby boomers there are simply demographically more older people who are set to die.
Just so I understand. With no customs what is our policy on Chinese counterfeit medicines for example.
And what would be the situation if an entrepreneur decided to offer said pharmaceuticals via a shell company based in NI and importing via Cork->Belfast->Liverpool?
Every Conservative leader from Disraeli to Howard knew that.
Going well so far. Lot rests on Javid if that is the case.
Well, tax changes mean that buy to let is now much less attractive; private house building has picked up sharply, immigration from the EU is falling, and the death rate among older people will shortly rise, bringing more properties on to the Market. So, I would expect housing to become more affordable in coming years.
Why will the death rate amongst older people rise soon?
Because the older people are getting older. Some baby boomers are now reaching or in their seventies already.
Even as life expectancy continues to age, as the older generation transitions from those who survived the war to the baby boomers there are simply demographically more older people who are set to die.
Every Conservative leader from Disraeli to Howard knew that.
Going well so far. Lot rests on Javid if that is the case.
Well, tax changes mean that buy to let is now much less attractive; private house building has picked up sharply, immigration from the EU is falling, and the death rate among older people will shortly rise, bringing more properties on to the Market. So, I would expect housing to become more affordable in coming years.
Why will the death rate amongst older people rise soon?
Because the older people are getting older. Some baby boomers are now reaching or in their seventies already.
Even as life expectancy continues to age, as the older generation transitions from those who survived the war to the baby boomers there are simply demographically more older people who are set to die.
New Zealand general election results with 81% in, voteshare and projected seats (changes from 2014 in brackets)
National 46% (-1%) 58 seats (-2) Labour 36% (+11%) 45 seats (+13) NZ First 7% (-1%) 9 seats (-2) Greens 6% (-5%) 7 seats (-7)
So Jacinda Ardern has made as big a voteshare gain as Corbyn did in June but like him her gains came mainly from minor parties rather than the main Conservative Party with National's voteshare only fractionally down from a higher base than the UK Tories started from. http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
It looks like English will have to do a deal with NZ First to be assured of a majority in Parliament but he should stay PM. Like May he is more of a traditional conservative than his predecessor, the more Cameroon John Key
An interesting result, and something remarkably similar to the UK result in June. The Conservatives will hold power with a reduced mandate.
The Left has surged (very late) in three anglosphere elections recently: Canada in 2015 (where it was enough for Trudeau to win), UK in 2017 (denying May her majority) and NZ this year (but it looks like not by enough to win).
I wonder if social media and social networks have a big part to play here in mobilising the youth vote, and allowing centre-left voters to rally around the key challenger more effectively, but I think electorates are more volatile than they used to be too, always looking for the fresh new thing.
We will simply relearn all the same lessons about why we joined in the first place before coming to the same conclusion that we need to get to the heart of the EU and stay there.
Given that people remain hostile to the politics after 45 years of membership, that's unlikely.
And this process of leaving will alienate people further from the EU. it makes ever rejoicing an impossible pipe dream for the Europhiles.
er.
Neither the BBC nor any other part of the Broadcast media is pro-Brexit. Three of the four broadsheets are anti-Brexit and it is only the comics and the rags that have been pro-Brexit.
And yet in spite of all of this Leave not only won but have maintained or increased support for us to Leave.
Your whole hypothesis is predicated on exactly the same myths and misreading that resulted in Remain losing in 2016.
No it isn't. The referendum result was a reflection of the mood of the country in 2016. It won't remain the same. And it only has to shift a little in the direction of the EU for any future referendum to be unwinnable by the leavers. It wasn't that long after the 1975 referendum that the Labour Party went to the country pledged to leave the EU. Had they won we would have left back in the eighties. Nobody at the time said that they couldn't do so because of the prior referendum result. Brexit looks secure at the moment because neither of the big parties have come out in favour of rejoining. But how long will that be the case? It is, as I said, easy to see Labour switching. It isn't that inconceivable that the Tories might.
Euroscepticism is, however, the dominant view among the population, and has been for a long time.
Every Conservative leader from Disraeli to Howard knew that.
Going well so far. Lot rests on Javid if that is the case.
Well, tax changes mean that buy to let is now much less attractive; private house building has picked up sharply, immigration from the EU is falling, and the death rate among older people will shortly rise, bringing more properties on to the Market. So, I would expect housing to become more affordable in coming years.
Why will the death rate amongst older people rise soon?
Because the older people are getting older. Some baby boomers are now reaching or in their seventies already.
Even as life expectancy continues to age, as the older generation transitions from those who survived the war to the baby boomers there are simply demographically more older people who are set to die.
I wonder if we'll see quite significant shifts in voting intention polls durin the conference season? May's speech has had broadly positive reviews so she should get a bump. The two party conferences should shake things around as usual. Overall I wouldn't be too surprised to see a small Tory lead when they've settled but it's really hard to predict.
The speech does seem to have received a fair press and in someways there does seem to be a realisation that the time limited transiton has in the main united the conservative party. Yesterday we heard Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all welcoming the approach with little dissent other than Farage who is not relevant to the conservative party.
Jeremy Corbyn's increased popularity is there for all to see and labour may get a boost when talking about public sector pay and student fees but their Brexit policy is all over the place. The various labour MP's interviewed post May's speech were incoherent and saying different things.
The conservative party conference will see Theresa May in her strongest position since the election and it should on the whole be a fairly united conference.
The next big event is the Autumn statement in November and probably Hammond's most important. He has to do something on public sector pay, student fees and the national living wage rate for under 25's and, while acknowledging Corbyn's influence, inject into the conversation the need for the government to be fair to all taxpayers and prudent.
New Zealand general election results with 81% in, voteshare and projected seats (changes from 2014 in brackets)
National 46% (-1%) 58 seats (-2) Labour 36% (+11%) 45 seats (+13) NZ First 7% (-1%) 9 seats (-2) Greens 6% (-5%) 7 seats (-7)
So Jacinda Ardern has made as big a voteshare gain as Corbyn did in June but like him her gains came mainly from minor parties rather than the main Conservative Party with National's voteshare only fractionally down from a higher base than the UK Tories started from. http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
It looks like English will have to do a deal with NZ First to be assured of a majority in Parliament but he should stay PM. Like May he is more of a traditional conservative than his predecessor, the more Cameroon John Key
An interesting result, and something remarkably similar to the UK result in June. The Conservatives will hold power with a reduced mandate.
The Left has surged (very late) in three anglosphere elections recently: Canada in 2015 (where it was enough for Trudeau to win), UK in 2017 (denying May her majority) and NZ this year (but it looks like not by enough to win).
I wonder if social media and social networks have a big part to play here in mobilising the youth vote, and allowing centre-left voters to rally around the key challenger more effectively, but I think electorates are more volatile than they used to be too, always looking for the fresh new thing.
Social media hasn't changed my opinions, but it has made me confident in them. There seem to be a lot of people around who share them. When it was just print and broadcast media it was easy to think that I was in a small minority.
Euroscepticism is, however, the dominant view among the population, and has been for a long time.
Eurosceptics always used to passionately deny that they wanted to leave the EU because of the prevailing view that leaving would be insane. All Brexit will do is prove that - a) too much Euroscepticism does indeed put us on the path to the exit, and b) people were right that this would be a huge mistake.
Brexit is the last hurrah of the Eurosceptics before a long period in which they have as much influence as people who want to reconquer the empire.
Every Conservative leader from Disraeli to Howard knew that.
Going well so far. Lot rests on Javid if that is the case.
Well, tax changes mean that buy to let is now much less attractive; private house building has picked up sharply, immigration from the EU is falling, and the death rate among older people will shortly rise, bringing more properties on to the Market. So, I would expect housing to become more affordable in coming years.
Why will the death rate amongst older people rise soon?
So many were born 1945-50. Also there's a bit of a theory that the 1930's cohort was uniquely blessed, diet wise, in growing up during the war (ironically) and having the right blend of just about being past infectious diseases of previous years, balanced food, little sugar, lots of excercise, and no X box, meaning they've lasted disproportionately longer.
Still cheer up if that's right the pension system's not as stuffed as we think it is as the death calculations are too generous which is a huge driver of the deficits we see reported.
I don't doubt that the government could have done some things better but so far it has been juch more flexible than the EU. What worries me is that that these concessions have simultaneously left the government close to its red lines while leaving the EU with the impression that all it has to do is stand firm and Britain will fold.
Simply not true. The government has been clear about what it wants: outside the SM, CU and CJEU jurisdiction, while aiming for the freest trade consistent with that. I don't know why that's difficult to see.
There's two kinds of flexibility here. There's the flexibility that reflects the relative weakness of the British hand: that the UK is leaving the EU and not the other way round, that the EU is bigger and more powerful than the UK, that the EU has the systems and the UK doesn't, that the UK needs more from the EU than the EU needs from the UK.
More interestingly there's a "flexibility"where the UK indulges in "blue sky thinking" as a substitute for resolving the contradictions of its positions and then suggests the EU works out what that actually means.
The problem with "free-est trade outside EU structures" is that it is a very costly, time consuming and is limiting. It's a hard work option. The easier options are EEA, EU membership or try to keep the "transition" going for as long as possible. We can talk about free-est trade because the costs and hard work haven't started yet.
Euroscepticism is, however, the dominant view among the population, and has been for a long time.
Eurosceptics always used to passionately deny that they wanted to leave the EU because of the prevailing view that leaving would be insane. All Brexit will do is prove that - a) too much Euroscepticism does indeed put us on the path to the exit, and b) people were right that this would be a huge mistake.
Brexit is the last hurrah of the Eurosceptics before a long period in which they have as much influence as people who want to reconquer the empire.
My knowledge of Spanish is minimal and comes via Sharpe, so I, helpfully, know the words for needle, wolf, castrator, and whore. (Aguja, lobo, castrador, puta).
Whoa, that’s a little serious! Looks like Madrid is going to flood Catalonia with the Guardian Civil for the next couple of weeks, to make sure the referendum doesn’t happen.
IMHO that’s entirely the wrong approach, increases the risk of serious unrest.
I wonder if we'll see quite significant shifts in voting intention polls durin the conference season? May's speech has had broadly positive reviews so she should get a bump. The two party conferences should shake things around as usual. Overall I wouldn't be too surprised to see a small Tory lead when they've settled but it's really hard to predict.
The speech does seem to have received a fair press and in someways there does seem to be a realisation that the time limited transiton has in the main united the conservative party. Yesterday we heard Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all welcoming the approach with little dissent other than Farage who is not relevant to the conservative party.
Jeremy Corbyn's increased popularity is there for all to see and labour may get a boost when talking about public sector pay and student fees but their Brexit policy is all over the place. The various labour MP's interviewed post May's speech were incoherent and saying different things.
The conservative party conference will see Theresa May in her strongest position since the election and it should on the whole be a fairly united conference.
The next big event is the Autumn statement in November and probably Hammond's most important. He has to do something on public sector pay, student fees and the national living wage rate for under 25's and, while acknowledging Corbyn's influence, inject into the conversation the need for the government to be fair to all taxpayers and prudent.
After all this the polls should be interesting
Or should be just do something significant on housing instead of several bits of tinkering in different areas?
I wonder if we'll see quite significant shifts in voting intention polls durin the conference season? May's speech has had broadly positive reviews so she should get a bump. The two party conferences should shake things around as usual. Overall I wouldn't be too surprised to see a small Tory lead when they've settled but it's really hard to predict.
The speech does seem to have received a fair press and in someways there does seem to be a realisation that the time limited transiton has in the main united the conservative party. Yesterday we heard Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all welcoming the approach with little dissent other than Farage who is not relevant to the conservative party.
Jeremy Corbyn's increased popularity is there for all to see and labour may get a boost when talking about public sector pay and student fees but their Brexit policy is all over the place. The various labour MP's interviewed post May's speech were incoherent and saying different things.
The conservative party conference will see Theresa May in her strongest position since the election and it should on the whole be a fairly united conference.
The next big event is the Autumn statement in November and probably Hammond's most important. He has to do something on public sector pay, student fees and the national living wage rate for under 25's and, while acknowledging Corbyn's influence, inject into the conversation the need for the government to be fair to all taxpayers and prudent.
After all this the polls should be interesting
Or should be just do something significant on housing instead of several bits of tinkering in different areas?
Housing and in particular looking at the rental sector should be in that list and thank you for highlighting it
Whoa, that’s a little serious! Looks like Madrid is going to flood Catalonia with the Guardian Civil for the next couple of weeks, to make sure the referendum doesn’t happen.
IMHO that’s entirely the wrong approach, increases the risk of serious unrest.
It is madness and being selfish, I hope nothing kicks off there on the 21st October when I am due to fly from Barcelona to Heathrow
I wonder if we'll see quite significant shifts in voting intention polls durin the conference season? May's speech has had broadly positive reviews so she should get a bump. The two party conferences should shake things around as usual. Overall I wouldn't be too surprised to see a small Tory lead when they've settled but it's really hard to predict.
The speech does seem to have received a fair press and in someways there does seem to be a realisation that the time limited transiton has in the main united the conservative party. Yesterday we heard Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all welcoming the approach with little dissent other than Farage who is not relevant to the conservative party.
Jeremy Corbyn's increased popularity is there for all to see and labour may get a boost when talking about public sector pay and student fees but their Brexit policy is all over the place. The various labour MP's interviewed post May's speech were incoherent and saying different things.
The conservative party conference will see Theresa May in her strongest position since the election and it should on the whole be a fairly united conference.
The next big event is the Autumn statement in November and probably Hammond's most important. He has to do something on public sector pay, student fees and the national living wage rate for under 25's and, while acknowledging Corbyn's influence, inject into the conversation the need for the government to be fair to all taxpayers and prudent.
After all this the polls should be interesting
Or should be just do something significant on housing instead of several bits of tinkering in different areas?
Hopefully something bold. Another Milton Keynes with 100,000 houses, releasing of ex-military / Government land in the south east, that sort of thing.
Right now the position is that everyone wants new housing but they all want it somewhere else, a major planning guidance reform in favour of development would help quell the effectiveness of the NIMBYism.
I wonder if we'll see quite significant shifts in voting intention polls durin the conference season? May's speech has had broadly positive reviews so she should get a bump. The two party conferences should shake things around as usual. Overall I wouldn't be too surprised to see a small Tory lead when they've settled but it's really hard to predict.
The speech does seem to have received a fair press and in someways there does seem to be a realisation that the time limited transiton has in the main united the conservative party. Yesterday we heard Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all welcoming the approach with little dissent other than Farage who is not relevant to the conservative party.
Jeremy Corbyn's increased popularity is there for all to see and labour may get a boost when talking about public sector pay and student fees but their Brexit policy is all over the place. The various labour MP's interviewed post May's speech were incoherent and saying different things.
The conservative party conference will see Theresa May in her strongest position since the election and it should on the whole be a fairly united conference.
The next big event is the Autumn statement in November and probably Hammond's most important. He has to do something on public sector pay, student fees and the national living wage rate for under 25's and, while acknowledging Corbyn's influence, inject into the conversation the need for the government to be fair to all taxpayers and prudent.
After all this the polls should be interesting
Or should be just do something significant on housing instead of several bits of tinkering in different areas?
Hopefully something bold. Another Milton Keynes with 100,000 houses, releasing of ex-military land in the south east, that sort of thing.
Right now the position is that everyone wants new housing but they all want it somewhere else, a major planning guidance reform in favour of development would help quell the effectiveness of the NIMBYism.
I'm all in favour of that, although the ownership of a substantial acreage of green belt may cloud my view!
Whoa, that’s a little serious! Looks like Madrid is going to flood Catalonia with the Guardian Civil for the next couple of weeks, to make sure the referendum doesn’t happen.
IMHO that’s entirely the wrong approach, increases the risk of serious unrest.
When in opposition, the right-wing, Spanish nationalist Partido Popular gave Catalan separatism the kiss of life when it used the courts to block increased Catalan autonomy, which had been agreed by the governments in Madrid and Barcelona, and overwhelmingly endorsed by Catalans in a referendum. Since taking power, the PP has continued to do all it can to further the Catalan separatist cause.
Just so I understand. With no customs what is our policy on Chinese counterfeit medicines for example.
And what would be the situation if an entrepreneur decided to offer said pharmaceuticals via a shell company based in NI and importing via Cork->Belfast->Liverpool?
Unilateral lack of border controls on the Northern Irish side is unrealistic. There is no way to avoid a Brexit hard border between the two parts of Ireland. Unless Northern Ireland gets special EU status and the border is shifted to the Irish Sea or the UK stays in the EEA and EU customs union.
Just so I understand. With no customs what is our policy on Chinese counterfeit medicines for example.
And what would be the situation if an entrepreneur decided to offer said pharmaceuticals via a shell company based in NI and importing via Cork->Belfast->Liverpool?
My knowledge of Spanish is minimal and comes via Sharpe, so I, helpfully, know the words for needle, wolf, castrator, and whore. (Aguja, lobo, castrador, puta).
I'm trying to guess the sentence in which you would use all those words. Could be a fun party game!
It is simply a reflection of the fact younger people are more likely to vote Labour and use the Internet and older people more likely to vote Tory and not use the Internet so frequently
Bill English speaking now in New Zealand and trying to present himself as the rightful choice as next PM as leader of the largest party https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-XwG7YJe3g
A big difference between the nationalist Scottish and Catalan governments is that the former respects the rule of law while the latter doesn't.
I've read that a number of the arrests and searches carried out by the GC have been done without warrants. If that is the case, disregard of the law goes both ways.
"For the EU, it fills what would otherwise be a sizable hole in the budget while taking Britain away from the EU’s core meetings (which an extension of the formal withdrawal period under Article 50 wouldn’t). For both sides, it avoids a damaging disruption of trade and of goodwill."
Re: David Herdson's point: The last sentence is more important than the first one. We must not forget that under WTO, the EU countries would also receive duties on their imports from the UK. It may not fall exactly proportionately in the ratio of monies paid in by member countries towards the EU budget but collectively I don't think it will make that big a difference.
However, the last sentence is important. Both sides will be affected a little because prices paid by the importing country will be relatively higher than compared to alternative but I don't think it will make a huge difference. Moving supply chain is not that easy. Over time it will happen but it happens today as well.
The problem will be jurisdiction. The UK effectively wants to stay in the single market two years more. The EU more than likely will accept it. However, some in the UK, like the Moggster, says the ECJ can have no part in it.
Why should they accept ? After all, it is the UK's choice to stay longer in the SM. The EU understandably will not agree to any change in the jurisdiction.
New Zealand general election results with 81% in, voteshare and projected seats (changes from 2014 in brackets)
National 46% (-1%) 58 seats (-2) Labour 36% (+11%) 45 seats (+13) NZ First 7% (-1%) 9 seats (-2) Greens 6% (-5%) 7 seats (-7)
So Jacinda Ardern has made as big a voteshare gain as Corbyn did in June but like him her gains came mainly from minor parties rather than the main Conservative Party with National's voteshare only fractionally down from a higher base than the UK Tories started from. http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
It looks like English will have to do a deal with NZ First to be assured of a majority in Parliament but he should stay PM. Like May he is more of a traditional conservative than his predecessor, the more Cameroon John Key
An interesting result, and something remarkably similar to the UK result in June. The Conservatives will hold power with a reduced mandate.
Yes, though looks like NZ First will play the role of the DUP as Kingmakers and English has now said he is ready to discuss with them forming a new government, he has even just copied May and said he wants 'a strong and stable government for all New Zealanders'.
New Zealand is probably closer to the UK than any other nation on earth culturally so perhaps not that surprising
Whoa, that’s a little serious! Looks like Madrid is going to flood Catalonia with the Guardian Civil for the next couple of weeks, to make sure the referendum doesn’t happen.
IMHO that’s entirely the wrong approach, increases the risk of serious unrest.
When in opposition, the right-wing, Spanish nationalist Partido Popular gave Catalan separatism the kiss of life when it used the courts to block increased Catalan autonomy, which had been agreed by the governments in Madrid and Barcelona, and overwhelmingly endorsed by Catalans in a referendum. Since taking power, the PP has continued to do all it can to further the Catalan separatist cause.
No matter what each individual thinks about Scottish independence, at least in Britain we debated the issue , allowed for a referendum to take place and settled (for a while) our differences at the ballot box.
AIUI polling was suggesting something like 60/40 against Catalan independence. Madrid would have been much better off letting it run, as it is they’re poking the hornets’ nest and it’s not going to be susprising if we see an autumn of riots in Barcelona and the surrounding towns.
A big difference between the nationalist Scottish and Catalan governments is that the former respects the rule of law while the latter doesn't.
I've read that a number of the arrests and searches carried out by the GC have been done without warrants. If that is the case, disregard of the law goes both ways.
Just so I understand. With no customs what is our policy on Chinese counterfeit medicines for example.
And what would be the situation if an entrepreneur decided to offer said pharmaceuticals via a shell company based in NI and importing via Cork->Belfast->Liverpool?
No tariffs does not mean no customs. We would still be able to prevent counterfeit medicines as that is already covered by WTO agreements .
"For the EU, it fills what would otherwise be a sizable hole in the budget while taking Britain away from the EU’s core meetings (which an extension of the formal withdrawal period under Article 50 wouldn’t). For both sides, it avoids a damaging disruption of trade and of goodwill."
Re: David Herdson's point: The last sentence is more important than the first one. We must not forget that under WTO, the EU countries would also receive duties on their imports from the UK. It may not fall exactly proportionately in the ratio of monies paid in by member countries towards the EU budget but collectively I don't think it will make that big a difference.
However, the last sentence is important. Both sides will be affected a little because prices paid by the importing country will be relatively higher than compared to alternative but I don't think it will make a huge difference. Moving supply chain is not that easy. Over time it will happen but it happens today as well.
The problem will be jurisdiction. The UK effectively wants to stay in the single market two years more. The EU more than likely will accept it. However, some in the UK, like the Moggster, says the ECJ can have no part in it.
Why should they accept ? After all, it is the UK's choice to stay longer in the SM. The EU understandably will not agree to any change in the jurisdiction.
Some of the Brexit debate is beginning to sound like Medieval theologians arguing over angels on pinheads or whatever.
I mean what on earth does it matter if the ECJ has jurisdiction for an additional couple of transition years? How many actual cases involving UK would even be heard in that time?
Isn't it more the case that young people will use the Internet almost constantly via smart phones etc. Older voters with established views and party attachments have enough experience of life to make up their own minds and aren't referencing social media and the Internet as much - let alone using it to discuss politics.
A bit like a Brexit - a function of age not intelligence etc.
Whether today's younger generation moves to the right as they get older is something we will have to wait to see. Of course they won't be as likely to own housing, have a secure job and be as free of debt as their parents and grandparents - will renters vote Tory?
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Isn't it more the case that young people will use the Internet almost constantly via smart phones etc. Older voters with established views and party attachments have enough experience of life to make up their own minds and aren't referencing social media and the Internet as much - let alone using it to discuss politics.
A bit like a Brexit - a function of age not intelligence etc.
Whether today's younger generation moves to the right as they get older is something we will have to wait to see. Of course they won't be as likely to own housing, have a secure job and be as free of debt as their parents and grandparents - will renters vote Tory?
They will inherit far more though thanks to the Tory inheritance tax cut
New Zealand general election results with 81% in, voteshare and projected seats (changes from 2014 in brackets)
National 46% (-1%) 58 seats (-2) Labour 36% (+11%) 45 seats (+13) NZ First 7% (-1%) 9 seats (-2) Greens 6% (-5%) 7 seats (-7)
So Jacinda Ardern has made as big a voteshare gain as Corbyn did in June but like him her gains came mainly from minor parties rather than the main Conservative Party with National's voteshare only fractionally down from a higher base than the UK Tories started from. http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
It looks like English will have to do a deal with NZ First to be assured of a majority in Parliament but he should stay PM. Like May he is more of a traditional conservative than his predecessor, the more Cameroon John Key
An interesting result, and something remarkably similar to the UK result in June. The Conservatives will hold power with a reduced mandate.
The Maori party lost all their seats - as Maori voters moved to Labour. The price for keeping the Nationals in office.
There are only two real alternatives - the Nationals with NZ First or an odd coalition between Labour NZ First and the Greens. NZ First has similarities to UKIP here so I don't think the latter would last long,
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
Do you ever say anything constructive. You are entitled to your view but with respect it is getting monotonous
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
Even Corbyn still backs Brexit, let alone the Tory leadership so unless you are predicting a Vince Cable landslide next time unlikely
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
I'd go further. I'd say Brexit is 110% utterly and completely doomed to utter and complete obliteration and annihilation within hours.
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
I'd go further. I'd say Brexit is 110% utterly and completely doomed to utter and complete obliteration and annihilation within hours.
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
I'd go further. I'd say Brexit is 110% utterly and completely doomed to utter and complete obliteration and annihilation within hours.
Just so I understand. With no customs what is our policy on Chinese counterfeit medicines for example.
And what would be the situation if an entrepreneur decided to offer said pharmaceuticals via a shell company based in NI and importing via Cork->Belfast->Liverpool?
No tariffs does not mean no customs. We would still be able to prevent counterfeit medicines as that is already covered by WTO agreements .
Logistics. How would such medicines be policed in the absence of a hard ROI/NI border? You're looking at small parcels sent via post and targeted at individuals (or small chemists) and containing pharmaceuticals that are not illegal and are not controlled under the Misuse of Drugs Act, and for which the recipient holds a legitimate scrip. Would the post be intercepted? Is this already done via IRL and if so at what volume would it become problematic? This is on the verge of becoming a genuine question...[insert smiley for puzzled face here ]
"For the EU, it fills what would otherwise be a sizable hole in the budget while taking Britain away from the EU’s core meetings (which an extension of the formal withdrawal period under Article 50 wouldn’t). For both sides, it avoids a damaging disruption of trade and of goodwill."
Re: David Herdson's point: The last sentence is more important than the first one. We must not forget that under WTO, the EU countries would also receive duties on their imports from the UK. It may not fall exactly proportionately in the ratio of monies paid in by member countries towards the EU budget but collectively I don't think it will make that big a difference.
However, the last sentence is important. Both sides will be affected a little because prices paid by the importing country will be relatively higher than compared to alternative but I don't think it will make a huge difference. Moving supply chain is not that easy. Over time it will happen but it happens today as well.
The problem will be jurisdiction. The UK effectively wants to stay in the single market two years more. The EU more than likely will accept it. However, some in the UK, like the Moggster, says the ECJ can have no part in it.
Why should they accept ? After all, it is the UK's choice to stay longer in the SM. The EU understandably will not agree to any change in the jurisdiction.
Some of the Brexit debate is beginning to sound like Medieval theologians arguing over angels on pinheads or whatever.
I mean what on earth does it matter if the ECJ has jurisdiction for an additional couple of transition years? How many actual cases involving UK would even be heard in that time?
Agreed. But did you hear what the Moggster was saying last night. I am not sure he understands the ramifications. But creating unnecessary red lines just creates more trouble.
However, the Leavers are shifting fast. First, Brexit will be Brexit allied with the EU will be desperate to make a deal regarding FTA as "they need us more than we need them".
Remainers and Leavers in London united in support of a service reliant on the use of low-paid immigrants to undercut more skilled, more expensive locals!!
"For the EU, it fills what would otherwise be a sizable hole in the budget while taking Britain away from the EU’s core meetings (which an extension of the formal withdrawal period under Article 50 wouldn’t). For both sides, it avoids a damaging disruption of trade and of goodwill."
Re: David Herdson's point: The last sentence is more important than the first one. We must not forget that under WTO, the EU countries would also receive duties on their imports from the UK. It may not fall exactly proportionately in the ratio of monies paid in by member countries towards the EU budget but collectively I don't think it will make that big a difference.
However, the last sentence is important. Both sides will be affected a little because prices paid by the importing country will be relatively higher than compared to alternative but I don't think it will make a huge difference. Moving supply chain is not that easy. Over time it will happen but it happens today as well.
The problem will be jurisdiction. The UK effectively wants to stay in the single market two years more. The EU more than likely will accept it. However, some in the UK, like the Moggster, says the ECJ can have no part in it.
Why should they accept ? After all, it is the UK's choice to stay longer in the SM. The EU understandably will not agree to any change in the jurisdiction.
Some of the Brexit debate is beginning to sound like Medieval theologians arguing over angels on pinheads or whatever.
I mean what on earth does it matter if the ECJ has jurisdiction for an additional couple of transition years? How many actual cases involving UK would even be heard in that time?
Agreed. But did you hear what the Moggster was saying last night. I am not sure he understands the ramifications. But creating unnecessary red lines just creates more trouble.
However, the Leavers are shifting fast. First, Brexit will be Brexit allied with the EU will be desperate to make a deal regarding FTA as "they need us more than we need them".
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
You've come up with some pretty lurid and far-fetched predictions (tanks in Belfast and Edinburgh, the break up of the UK, Ukrainian-type uprisings against the government) so pardon me if I'm not convinced by this one.
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
Even Corbyn still backs Brexit, let alone the Tory leadership so unless you are predicting a Vince Cable landslide next time unlikely
The Tories continue to delude themselves. Virtually no one apart from DUP types like what's her name are Remainers. Labour crafted their policy carefully but has now openly shifted. In fact, the Tories have caught with Labour now.
Young Labour voters, indeed 75% amongst all supporters, are Remainers.
This is all getting ridiculous. They have lost regulatory approval for various failings. They have right of appeal. If they lose that then they cease to operate. At that point they could actually you know fix some of the failings and reapply.
Has there ever been a petition gaining over 500,000 signatures within 24 hours
Fudge coming
Uber will stay where it is - either because it wins its appeal or it does what TfL wants. But if it decides to leave London another service will replace it. Either way, it won't be an issue in 2020.
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
You've come up with some pretty lurid and far-fetched predictions (tanks in Belfast and Edinburgh, the break up of the UK, Ukrainian-type uprisings against the government) so pardon me if I'm not convinced by this one.
The tanks bit wasn't a prediction but a response to someone saying (you?) we should do 'whatever it takes' to get out without a deal. How far would you go to do that?
Interesting polling, closer than I thought it would be and lots of DKs outside London.
I wonder how many of those replying to the poll actually read the reasons behind TFL’s decision yesterday? My view is that they should be allowed to operate, if they play by the same rules as any other minicab company, and that TfL’s decision was correct.
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
You've come up with some pretty lurid and far-fetched predictions (tanks in Belfast and Edinburgh, the break up of the UK, Ukrainian-type uprisings against the government) so pardon me if I'm not convinced by this one.
The tanks bit wasn't a prediction but a response to someone saying (you?) we should do 'whatever it takes' to get out without a deal. How far would you go to do that?
The situation doesn't arise. No one will be going to war over Brexit.
My knowledge of Spanish is minimal and comes via Sharpe, so I, helpfully, know the words for needle, wolf, castrator, and whore. (Aguja, lobo, castrador, puta).
I'm trying to guess the sentence in which you would use all those words. Could be a fun party game!
As a needle is to a castrator, so is the wolf to a whore?
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
Even Corbyn still backs Brexit, let alone the Tory leadership so unless you are predicting a Vince Cable landslide next time unlikely
The Tories continue to delude themselves. Virtually no one apart from DUP types like what's her name are Remainers. Labour crafted their policy carefully but has now openly shifted. In fact, the Tories have caught with Labour now.
Young Labour voters, indeed 75% amongst all supporters, are Remainers.
How many of these "Young Labour Voters" actually voted?
A nationally representative sample of Sky subscribers?!!
How many votes will it actually change? Are all these young people going to start voting Tory over it - I doubt it, The decision is also backed by the Lib Dems and Greens on the London Assembly - they have been pushing for it. The Tories don't have many strong voting bases in London anymore - black cab drivers in places like Bromley and Havering are so they probably won't die in a ditch over this.
As for online petitions - we have seen those before. How many will be fake or from abroad like that second referendum petition where 20,000 people signed from the Vatican City which only has 800 residents.
So I expect Khan is fine over this - TfL are there to enforce the laws and regulations and that should trump online petitions or polls.
Has there ever been a petition gaining over 500,000 signatures within 24 hours
Fudge coming
Uber will stay where it is - either because it wins its appeal or it does what TfL wants. But if it decides to leave London another service will replace it. Either way, it won't be an issue in 2020.
I wonder whether Mayor Khan has a taxpayer-funded chauffeur at his beck and call. I hope not for the sake of his public career.
Planning for no deal is self defeating. If they sent in the diggers in Kent, the world would see that we were heading for that outcome and business and the markets would react accordingly.
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
Even Corbyn still backs Brexit, let alone the Tory leadership so unless you are predicting a Vince Cable landslide next time unlikely
We will Brexit - but bar the loss of our MEPs and our PM attending the council of ministers every few months will any one be able to tell the difference. Taxation without representation?
My knowledge of Spanish is minimal and comes via Sharpe, so I, helpfully, know the words for needle, wolf, castrator, and whore. (Aguja, lobo, castrador, puta).
I'm trying to guess the sentence in which you would use all those words. Could be a fun party game!
As a needle is to a castrator, so is the wolf to a whore?
Has there ever been a petition gaining over 500,000 signatures within 24 hours
Fudge coming
How many signatures on a petition should exempt a company from the legal requirement to keep CRB check data on their employees, and to co-operate with law enforcement when complaints are made against them?
Remainers and Leavers in London united in support of a service reliant on the use of low-paid immigrants to undercut more skilled, more expensive locals!!
Given London was about 60 40 Remain and the country 52 48 Leave more like mostly traditionalist Leavers back the black cabbies and globalist Remainers are all behind Uber
Comments
I remember reading a biography of Heath written in 1973, it ended saying something like 'Heath could look forward to Britain leading a united Europe able to face down both the Soviet Union and the USA.'
As things stand, the UK component of the European Parliament elections in 2019 will not take place and the existing UK MEPs will leave the Parliament.
If Theresa May's proposed transition deal is accepted, then the situation is the same: no EParl elections, no UK MEPs in March(?) 2019.
Any other arrangements not involving the postponement/revocation of Art50: then the situation is the same: no blah blah...
Any arrangements that does involve the postponement/revocation of Art50: dunno, and I'm not betting on it...
The debate has been entirely within the cabinet, where transition has been discussed for over a year, and Labour's position (or, should I say, positions, since there have been several) wholly irrelevant.
Even as life expectancy continues to age, as the older generation transitions from those who survived the war to the baby boomers there are simply demographically more older people who are set to die.
I wonder if social media and social networks have a big part to play here in mobilising the youth vote, and allowing centre-left voters to rally around the key challenger more effectively, but I think electorates are more volatile than they used to be too, always looking for the fresh new thing.
Jeremy Corbyn's increased popularity is there for all to see and labour may get a boost when talking about public sector pay and student fees but their Brexit policy is all over the place. The various labour MP's interviewed post May's speech were incoherent and saying different things.
The conservative party conference will see Theresa May in her strongest position since the election and it should on the whole be a fairly united conference.
The next big event is the Autumn statement in November and probably Hammond's most important. He has to do something on public sector pay, student fees and the national living wage rate for under 25's and, while acknowledging Corbyn's influence, inject into the conversation the need for the government to be fair to all taxpayers and prudent.
After all this the polls should be interesting
Brexit is the last hurrah of the Eurosceptics before a long period in which they have as much influence as people who want to reconquer the empire.
Still cheer up if that's right the pension system's not as stuffed as we think it is as the death calculations are too generous which is a huge driver of the deficits we see reported.
More interestingly there's a "flexibility"where the UK indulges in "blue sky thinking" as a substitute for resolving the contradictions of its positions and then suggests the EU works out what that actually means.
The problem with "free-est trade outside EU structures" is that it is a very costly, time consuming and is limiting. It's a hard work option. The easier options are EEA, EU membership or try to keep the "transition" going for as long as possible. We can talk about free-est trade because the costs and hard work haven't started yet.
https://twitter.com/cataloniadirect/status/911535405731893250
My knowledge of Spanish is minimal and comes via Sharpe, so I, helpfully, know the words for needle, wolf, castrator, and whore. (Aguja, lobo, castrador, puta).
IMHO that’s entirely the wrong approach, increases the risk of serious unrest.
A big difference between the nationalist Scottish and Catalan governments is that the former respects the rule of law while the latter doesn't.
Sort of the equivalent of having Special Branch takeover Police Scotland? Didn't they detain Catalan leaders the other day? Not sure.
Can't think of anything more likely to have the opposite effect of what Madrid wants.
Right now the position is that everyone wants new housing but they all want it somewhere else, a major planning guidance reform in favour of development would help quell the effectiveness of the NIMBYism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-XwG7YJe3g
Re: David Herdson's point: The last sentence is more important than the first one. We must not forget that under WTO, the EU countries would also receive duties on their imports from the UK. It may not fall exactly proportionately in the ratio of monies paid in by member countries towards the EU budget but collectively I don't think it will make that big a difference.
However, the last sentence is important. Both sides will be affected a little because prices paid by the importing country will be relatively higher than compared to alternative but I don't think it will make a huge difference. Moving supply chain is not that easy. Over time it will happen but it happens today as well.
The problem will be jurisdiction. The UK effectively wants to stay in the single market two years more. The EU more than likely will accept it. However, some in the UK, like the Moggster, says the ECJ can have no part in it.
Why should they accept ? After all, it is the UK's choice to stay longer in the SM. The EU understandably will not agree to any change in the jurisdiction.
New Zealand is probably closer to the UK than any other nation on earth culturally so perhaps not that surprising
AIUI polling was suggesting something like 60/40 against Catalan independence. Madrid would have been much better off letting it run, as it is they’re poking the hornets’ nest and it’s not going to be susprising if we see an autumn of riots in Barcelona and the surrounding towns.
I mean what on earth does it matter if the ECJ has jurisdiction for an additional couple of transition years? How many actual cases involving UK would even be heard in that time?
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/911552882566160384
A bit like a Brexit - a function of age not intelligence etc.
Whether today's younger generation moves to the right as they get older is something we will have to wait to see. Of course they won't be as likely to own housing, have a secure job and be as free of debt as their parents and grandparents - will renters vote Tory?
Brexit is utterly and completely doomed.
There are only two real alternatives - the Nationals with NZ First or an odd coalition between Labour NZ First and the Greens. NZ First has similarities to UKIP here so I don't think the latter would last long,
However, the Leavers are shifting fast. First, Brexit will be Brexit allied with the EU will be desperate to make a deal regarding FTA as "they need us more than we need them".
Really ?
Meanwhile, Moody's downgrades Y+UK credit rating. Everything's coming up roses !!!!
Oh, wait!
[1] or whenever it was Osborne instituted HTB (spit)
Has there ever been a petition gaining over 500,000 signatures within 24 hours
Fudge coming
Young Labour voters, indeed 75% amongst all supporters, are Remainers.
I wonder how many of those replying to the poll actually read the reasons behind TFL’s decision yesterday? My view is that they should be allowed to operate, if they play by the same rules as any other minicab company, and that TfL’s decision was correct.
Others have commented on "internet echo chambers" which I suspect are more prevalent (although not exclusively) on the left.
Hence people who predominantly use the internet for news are more likely to see a limited range of opinions and hence vote Labour
How many votes will it actually change? Are all these young people going to start voting Tory over it - I doubt it, The decision is also backed by the Lib Dems and Greens on the London Assembly - they have been pushing for it. The Tories don't have many strong voting bases in London anymore - black cab drivers in places like Bromley and Havering are so they probably won't die in a ditch over this.
As for online petitions - we have seen those before. How many will be fake or from abroad like that second referendum petition where 20,000 people signed from the Vatican City which only has 800 residents.
So I expect Khan is fine over this - TfL are there to enforce the laws and regulations and that should trump online petitions or polls.