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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Deadline 2021: the clock might (or might not) be reset but it is still ticking
So now we know what the longest cabinet meeting of the century achieved: everyone united around the proposition that if there’s a row to be had, it can wait. That’s as true of internal cabinet divisions as it is of the main UK-EU negotiations. At some point the crunch will come – but not yet.
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The sound you hear is not the clock ticking, but of the can being kicked down the road.
Mark Senior
As has been reported one of PB's most longstanding posters, Mark Senior, has died. I'm in the referendum obsessed city of Barcelona at the moment but will do a full post on him when I return. His last comment here was on August 18th and his final visit to the site was on September 1st.He is one of those who have added immensely to PB over 13 years and in 2007 was voted LD Poster of the Year. He's also a previous PB competition winner
"I'd say it’s odds-on that no final agreement will be reached by 29 March 2021"
My reasoning is that a transition/implementation period only exists as part of an agreed deal. If that has not been signed off then the default hard Brexit to WTO happens on 30th March 2019. Negotiations on a separate freestanding trade deal with us as a third party could begin but this would not be part of the Brexit talks.
In order to start these there would have to be an agreed A50 deal of "WTO terms plus transition". This would avoid a cliff edge, but would require all other issues such as Ireland, exit payments and citizens status to be agreed on the existing timescale.
Thank you David for the thread header. I personally can't see this lasting for the best part of four years. Quite how and, more crucially from a betting point of view, when it all falls apart I have no idea, but I'm very confident that it will be before 2021.
Any thoughts on the Catalan referendum? My Barcelonain colleague reckons Barca is like London, a Remain city with a Leave hinterland, if so that would present further wrinkles.
He fought the cause of the LD's in the face of considerable adversity and was very knowledgeable about polling, and was v keen on local election results.
Downgraded and isolated. The French president laying down the law on the Irish border is a new low.
The greaest exposer of cant on here and if you could choose anyone to be on your side you'd choose Mark. A pity the last significant political even he'd have witnessed was Brexit which he loathed.
I'll miss him
UK technology firm Imagination, which designs graphics chips for smartphones, is being bought for £550m by a Chinese-backed investment firm.
Last week, the Trump administration barred the sale of Lattice to the Chinese-backed company, citing national security risks.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41369376
EU leaders want nothing less than the very public humiliation of the UK, forcibly caving in to all their demands, egged on by their serf-like fan base here.
Still chuckling at Mays subliminal tag line.
Very sad to hear of Mr. Senior passing away. My condolences to his family and friends.
Morning all, trust you're all well - very sorry to hear the news about Mark Senior.
Polls closed at 8am and my gut feel is that despite their surge under new leader Jacinda Ardern, Labour + Greens will be just behind the Nationals in seats.
Results are already starting to come in (polling station count as per most countries) - NZ has some of the quickest early results anywhere.
Links:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-XwG7YJe3g
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/livestream-watch-newshub-s-election-special.html
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
My gut feel is that Winston Peters and NZ First will plump for the Nationals under Bill English and will provide support for them to form a fourth term government, no new government tonight though as he's said he'll wait for a few weeks until official results are finalised.
Could be an exciting night/morning.
Anyway best wishes to all - Germany polls close 5pm BST tomorrow I think.
Thanks!
DC
Still eagerly awaiting the terrible punishment on polluting German car manufacturers...
But, returning to my first point, this was at least partly down to British politicians. As well as the pretence the EU wasn't all about ever more integration, they played the sceptical card in words but in actions you have to go back to Thatcher. It's not unlike the Conservatives/Cameron raising immigration concerns, failing to address them (whilst making approving noises of reducing numbers), and then being taken by surprise when the public want immigration to decline and that played a significant role in the referendum.
We are still in, leaving was always going to be difficult. Its like a relationship breakdown of epic proportions. Most of what is going on is brinkmanship. Wiser heads ought to prevail, as it is in the EU's interest. Otherwise we just tell the EU to feck off. I am getting rather fed up with Brussels bureaucrats trying to show how tough they are.
The government talks itself into an unrealisitic position and throws the rattle out of pram when the EU doesnt do what its supposed to.
Labour's stance ... We want to leave by staying within the EU.
PB Remainers' stance. Juncker's refusal to negotiate is entirely justified. The fault is ours for not conceding everything immediately.
Sad to hear about Mr Senior. He was entertaining and informative.
Your mate Blair did more to diminish the status of Britain in the world than brexit has done. Remember? By invading a sovereign nation....
On topic May has bought back the time she has wasted since the referendum, albeit at a fairly heavy cost to the country. Let's hope that it is put to better use this time around.
Has she bought more time for herself? I would not be so sure of that. A zombie government under her dead and visionless hand until 2021 is not an attractive proposition for the country or the party.
On topic, if the EU agree a transition deal in my opinion it makes our final destination more likely to be EFTA/EEA. Outside the EU with no input and paying for access to the single market - it will quickly become comfortable, enough of a change to satisfy all but the most hardened buyers, with a "new" registration scheme for migrants to make people think we've taken control of our borders.
If the EU agree a transition deal... If they did this autumn, it still only gives us 3 years to agree a not EEA not CETA deal which has eluded the Swiss for 20 years. But if you are the EU there has to be a lot of negotiation tactics where you don't even agree to this - leave if you want. But you can't walk from all your other financial obligations now you have recognised that you owe us money. Unless you pay tnose as well we cant help you...
May couldnt win the rights to host a school fete.
We now have freedom of action as a significant medium sized power vs part of a sclerotic medium sized power with little interest in force projection
One example being Russia: German politicians personal interests (yes, Schroeder I'm looking at you) meant that Europe was silent at a time where a robust response would have been optimal
If a transition deal is actually an A50 extension to allow further negotiations then it requires unanimity.
In practice the EU27 will act as one, as they have chosen to do so so far. This solidarity does make for a very inflexible approach, with little scope for compromise. In practice they decide terms, and we choose deal or no deal. Extension is part of deal, not an alternative.
What makes you say that?
European interests are much more insular, Germany in particular is not interested in much that happens outside its hinterland (except for Russia which it is emollient towards). The UK is much more global in outlook.
You can argue whether that's a good thing or not, but increased freedom of action means our potential for influence has gone up
It wasn't a swerve: you were taking a Eurocentric view, which is the wrong lens to look through
The lack of audience for our PM this week at the UN speaks volumes.What we have to say matters less.
I am not too bothered by this loss of influence. We are a medium sized country with a top 10 economy who need to live within our means. We are no longer a world power and should not delude ourselves.
Cameon had influence as PM. All those levers of power, people taking his calls. But lots of contraints, compromise and demands on his time.
After he resigned he had a lot more freedom. Potentially his influence could go up with all that time. He was freed of contraints. Instead he has a nice shed.
Iraq
Scotland
Public finances
Pensions in the private sector
University fees
Immigration
EU rebate (still waiting for that CAP reform)
The Constitution/Lisbon treaty ( I bet he wishes to his bootstraps he hadn't reneged on that one)
The last three were all petrol on the nascent Brexit embers of course.
As far as I can see he now spends his time running around the world conducting a permanent if futile rearguard action in expensive tailoring.
The steelworkers of South Wales did not vote to be undercut, they voted so our government could stop them being undercut.
It was predominantly the economically struggling areas and demographics that voted Brexit. If the Tories do not deliver for them, then Corbyn will get his opportunity. For Brexit to work for the Tories it needs to deliver for CDE workers in the Shires and coasts, not fund managers in Surrey.
It's really hard for ex-PMs to get the right tone. I think Major's mostly done it: keeps out of the public eye for most of the time, and only emerges at times when it really matters to him. Brown's thankfully mostly disappeared, and Tony and Margaret probably interfered too much after they left.
But I will add something else: being PM is a rather stressful and difficult job - just look at the way Tony aged in just ten years. Anyone doing the job could earn more elsewhere - even Brown - and without many of the same negative pressures on them and their families. If they want to retire and potter about in a shed, so be it. They've done their service, for good or ill.
I believe that the EU negotiators have said that transition needs a known destination, not uncertainty. Negotiation on exit terms have to be complete first.
*In which case @WilliamGlenn can afford a round for the house courtesy of SeanT
https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities
If Bill English does hold on that is good news for monarchists as he is a supporter of the royal family while Labour leader Jacinda Adern is a republican
Current standings
National 46%
Labour 36.5%
NZ First 7%
Greens 6%
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/live-early-results-in-national-races-lead-vote-17
Fundamentally it does not know where it wants to go. So the Brexit negotiations are all tactics and headline grabbing. May talks of duty and responsibility because she does not have a plan.
We won't make progress until we decide what we want.
They sold their IMGWorks chip-design division a few months back.
I've friends and acquaintances who work in various IMG groups, and so I hope this means their jobs are secure.
BTW, leaving aside the MIPS tech they purchased, their quad-core META processor was an absolute joy to work with, if little known (though many of you might well have one or two in your houses).
The tricky bit is how close we can get.
That stems all the way from Cameron forbidding the Civil Service doing any contingency planning, but the most critical errors were both May's (Article 50 being triggered ahead of an election, and the failed election itself).
They know that (a) UK hyper focused on Brexit at the moment and (b) Theresa May has a limited time span and limited authority
It's a comment on the here and now, not the long term.
(It might help that I am more accustomed to thinking in generations rather than years)
Essentially the authors did a constituency level multivariate logistic regression analysis (thereby attempting to get past the age vs education debate), and looked at patterns by social makers at a micro level.
They conclude that markets of social conservatism were the strongest predictors, with education level the next most significant.
The interesting finding for me was that highly educated people in low skill areas were more Leave inclined, and lower educated people in high skill areas more Remain inclined. In other words, people seemed to vote not just on their own circumstances, but those of their neighbours.
The final paragraph sums it up:
"The more disadvantaged voters that turned out for Brexit are also united by values that encourage support for more socially conservative, authoritarian and nativist responses. On the whole, Leave voters have far more in common with each other than they have things that divide them. Over three-quarters of Leave voters feel disillusioned with politicians; two-thirds support the death penalty; and well over half feel very strongly English. Over one third of Leave supporters hold all three of these attitudes, compared to just 6 percent who do not hold any of them. This more liberal group of Brexit voters, therefore, constituted a very small part of the coalition for leaving the EU."
So I do not expect liberal, free trading globalists to be the beneficiaries of the Brexit vote.
Ultimately they have to tread a line themselves between protecting (as they see it) the single market (a subset of which is not encouraging others to wander off like the UK, as whatever we do arrive at will of course be the instant blueprint for anyone at some point in the future to follow us- however unlikely right now), and not creating a long term uncooperative entity off their NW coast with one of their members semi cut off behind it.
In the 2020's and 30's they want a "Canada" not a sullen troublemaker, feeling screwed over for daring to leave a voluntary club. So they have some real world constraints on them too. My concern is they seem fixated on the process up to the enacting of Brexit and are not thinking that life goes on past that for an awfully longer time.
So their game is to get as much as they can without us actually saying "enough" and walking because that's a seriously bad place for them too - if they stop to think.