Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reaction to Theresa May’s Florence speech – as we are set

1356

Comments

  • Cookie said:

    I don't want to derail the thread - but has there been any discussion about TfL's decision to revoke Uber's license? Maybe not the biggest story of the day, but more surprising - and potentially disturbing - to me, than developments in Florence.

    Was some discussion on previous thread. SeanT in particular is not a happy bunny.
  • Mr. Submarine, if you believe we will not end up departing, then the UKIP leadership contest becomes more significant than would otherwise by the case.

    Good point. And what a cracking set of candidates are in the running.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,277

    Corbyn:

    "Labour wants a Jobs-First Brexit that uses powers returned from Brussels to invest and upgrade Britain's economy."

    Does this actually mean anything?

    The only sense I can make of it, is that he means no State Aid rules, so he can mess about with industry and commerce as he sees fit.

    I cannot see how anyone takes Corbyn seriously. He has no position on Brexit other than that that maybe politically expedient for him. He is anti business and has no idea how he could manage a business friendly Brexit
    i think soft Brexit is less anti business than Tory Brexit.

    Never been more businesses coming to LAB conferences than this week
    That's not an indication of business enthusiasm for Labour. That's an indication of the likelihood business is attaching to a future Labour government - which is slightly different.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    FPT

    I've never tried to beach an NDA before. Is that a California thing?

    Ah, the dangers of commenting from my phone.

    You guys are lucky that BA doesn't have wireless internet on planes yet. This means I'm going to be silent for the next eleven hours.
    I'm amazed you are flying BA - I found them very mediocre indeed, on long haul.
    So have I recently - long haul to Canada staff did the barest minimum even in premium class
    Wine and entertainment selection v bad I mean why else fly with an airline up front?!

    The lie-flat bed is surely the only reason. You'll never get your money's worth with the wine and the telly.

    Virgin used to have a fantastic lie flat bed essentially a mattress. Not any more.

    Ofc regarding the wine but you do want a decent cru bourgeois not some unknown Chilean plonk which you get on BA.
  • Barnier: The speech shows a willingness to move forward, as time is of the essence... We look forward to UK explaining concrete implications

    That's actually very positive - the PM's steps in the dance are not being rebuffed.
    Think again:
    https://twitter.com/michelbarnier/status/911253421235335168

    That is not necessarily a rebuffal. May definitely addressed EU27 concerns in the speech and indicated some important concessions. Hopefully, Davis will follow these up with concrete proposals next week. It would be utterly bizarre for May to give that speech and for him not to do so.

    It's very far from a rebuffal. The full statement he links to is positively friendly.

    Note also that, as I pointed out earlier, the very fact that we're now about to start talking about transition is a useful step forward.

    I agree. It's just a shame that May was not saying these things before. Anyway, hopefully Davis has the substance to back up the words. If he doesn't, it will probably make the situation even worse than it is now.

  • If the transition period is going to look like being in the EU for an extra 2 years, why not just ask the EU to exfend the A50 deadline? Much less hassle for both sides.

    So we can say, perfectly accurately , that we've left.
    A lot of time and money for a soundbite. All to appease a declining demographic.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,090
    edited September 2017
    Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,811
    I've seen too much to worry about in terms of a transitionary period - even now the chances of that becoming permanent must be slim, so if it enables a better deal all around then no harm done.
  • Barnier: The speech shows a willingness to move forward, as time is of the essence... We look forward to UK explaining concrete implications

    That's actually very positive - the PM's steps in the dance are not being rebuffed.
    Think again:
    https://twitter.com/michelbarnier/status/911253421235335168

    That is not necessarily a rebuffal. May definitely addressed EU27 concerns in the speech and indicated some important concessions. Hopefully, Davis will follow these up with concrete proposals next week. It would be utterly bizarre for May to give that speech and for him not to do so.

    It's very far from a rebuffal. The full statement he links to is positively friendly.

    Note also that, as I pointed out earlier, the very fact that we're now about to start talking about transition is a useful step forward.
    It was that resigning silliness Boris put about that did for him - he bigged himself up for the Ultras, casting himself as their principled champion, then betrayed them. I suspect he'll now reinvent himself as Mr Soft Soft Brexit, as that's the lie of the political land now.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Called it.

    Farage moaning like a whore on Sky News about the speech.

    Just as a matter of interest, how does a whore moan?
    Refuse to pay her.
    I thought payment in advance was standard terms, but bow to your greater knowledge.
    Refusing to pay a prostitute is prima facie, a breach of S 11 of the Fraud Act 2006,
    No your honour, she told me she was a condom seller and she was providing me with a free demonstration on how to use her product.
    I think that would get the same reaction from your barrister that Courtney Walsh gave a Rastafarian client who tried to argue that a hand axe was a religious artefact, and not an offensive weapon.

    "I'm not going to embarrass myself in Court by running that argument. You're pleading guilty."
    Nothing, and I mean nothing will ever top this defence.

    A Zimbabwean man has told a court that he hired a prostitute who during the night transformed into a donkey...
    Perhaps some football teams could sue agents on that basis.
  • Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa

    Give them all a couple of days and it will be different.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Ha, ha. Genuine LOL.

    You'd have to have a heart of stone etc etc


    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/911254376169263104

    I hope Nigel & Cos gold plated pensons aren't at risk !
  • Current Daily Mail headline:

    PM climbs down on EU citizens, borders and law with €20bn bung for Brussels as she bids to kickstart Brexit talks - but is accused of betraying referendum by keeping Britain IN Europe until 2021

    As I said on the previous thread, the questions post-speech from the Mail and Telegraph indicated that this might happen. However, if May can break free from pandering to the Tory right it will be a major leap forward in our chances of escaping a destructive, cliff-edge departure.

  • Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa

    Boris has decided to shift sides. That's obvious.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Sandpit said:

    .

    surbiton said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    FPT

    I've never tried to beach an NDA before. Is that a California thing?

    Ah, the dangers of commenting from my phone.

    You guys are lucky that BA doesn't have wireless internet on planes yet. This means I'm going to be silent for the next eleven hours.
    I'm amazed you are flying BA - I found them very mediocre indeed, on long haul.
    So have I recently - long haul to Canada staff did the barest minimum even in premium class
    Wine and entertainment selection v bad I mean why else fly with an airline up front?!

    The lie-flat bed is surely the only reason. You'll never get your money's worth with the wine and the telly.

    Sleep is the only reason why anyone flies business class. That's why you pay a grand or two more.
    Yep! The wine would have to be very good indeed to otherwise make it worth the extra.
    That said, my dear old mother (70) turned down a £200 biz class upgrade offer from Emirates, as they were giving her a middle seat down the back of an A380.

    She’s not been allowed to forget that, and been assured that her children will chip in if she ever finds herself in the same situation again!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa

    Soft Brexit is the new mantra!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa

    Boris has been put well and truly back in his box. Well done Theresa!
  • surbiton said:

    Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa

    Soft Brexit is the new mantra!
    Surely what was laid out this afternoon was a delayed hard Brexit? As it seems extremely likely that the EU will not offer some creative third way status between Norway and Canada that blocks FOM and allows unfettered access to single market as if nothing has happened.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565

    Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa

    Is that not the ultimate measure of how many compromises Theresa May has had to make - and as a result she's ended up saying far less than was needed.
  • Current Daily Mail headline:

    PM climbs down on EU citizens, borders and law with €20bn bung for Brussels as she bids to kickstart Brexit talks - but is accused of betraying referendum by keeping Britain IN Europe until 2021

    As I said on the previous thread, the questions post-speech from the Mail and Telegraph indicated that this might happen. However, if May can break free from pandering to the Tory right it will be a major leap forward in our chances of escaping a destructive, cliff-edge departure.

    Don't worry, the Treasury are on the case.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,277

    Cookie said:

    I don't want to derail the thread - but has there been any discussion about TfL's decision to revoke Uber's license? Maybe not the biggest story of the day, but more surprising - and potentially disturbing - to me, than developments in Florence.

    See the end of the previous thread - lots there
    Thanks.
    I'm fairly well-informed about transport politics. But I didn't see this one coming. I'm quite shocked.
  • Surely what was laid out this afternoon was a delayed hard Brexit? As it seems extremely likely that the EU will not offer some creative third way status between Norway and Canada that blocks FOM and allows unfettered access to single market as if nothing has happened.

    What was laid out was a delayed no Brexit. She is trying to placate the people who 'never felt at home in the EU' until enough of them die off.

    I think Brexit will blow up long before this plan gets put into practice.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Seems Ken Clarke, Phil Hammond and Boris all on board with speech.

    That is quite an achievement by Theresa

    It's the reactions of Cash,Davies or rees-mogg she should be more bothered about.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 940
    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.
  • May’s Brexit algorithm

    image
  • Mr. Borough, thanks.

    If May's seen as backsliding that will harm the Conservatives among anti-EU types but may help with soft pro-EU sorts. UKIP rising with a different leader could have many difficult to foresee implications.

    If that does happen, the market to check would be UKIP vote share at the next election. However, it's worth remembering the purples are currently on their back. But, as we've seen, politics is turbulent these days.
  • theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited September 2017
    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    I don't think we will unless there is some monumental error in the drafting of the A50 agreement and the ECJ throws a spanner in the works. The Treaties cease to apply on Brexit Day which is before the next euro elections. And it needs certainty as the size of the EP is fixed. Whether we are in or out alters the number of seats other states elect. Sadly so much for the rush to invoke A50 and the ensuing mess was the rush to make sure we didn't take part in the 2019 elections. If we'd had an election and then the MEPs had served a few months only it would have been farcical and chaotic.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,401
    A more decisive can kick than I was expecting. By cleverly rejecting both the two realistic options, Mrs May passes on the poisoned chalice to her successor about what Brexit does actually mean, probably without alienating either faction of her party because they agree the other realistic option is an abomination.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,750

    Mr. Borough, thanks.

    If May's seen as backsliding that will harm the Conservatives among anti-EU types but may help with soft pro-EU sorts. UKIP rising with a different leader could have many difficult to foresee implications.

    If that does happen, the market to check would be UKIP vote share at the next election. However, it's worth remembering the purples are currently on their back. But, as we've seen, politics is turbulent these days.

    Labour most seats might be a good bet if UKIP split Tory vote.
  • FF43 said:

    A more decisive can kick than I was expecting. By cleverly rejecting both the two realistic options, Mrs May passes on the poisoned chalice to her successor about what Brexit does actually mean, probably without alienating either faction of her party because they agree the other realistic option is an abomination.

    One way of looking at it to be sure
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    No taxation without representation*.

    * unless you are in Theresa May's Brexit transition period.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657

    HYUFD said:

    So effectively we stay in the EU in all but name until 2021 then May likely hands over to Boris who can campaign for full Brexit and an end to free movement and any more payments to the EU in time for the 2022 general election

    Nah, Boris has now joined the long list of Conservative politicians, such as William Hague and David Cameron, who were regarded by the the nut-jobs as sound but are now regarded as traitors.

    How sad :)
    He is still well placed for 2021
  • Mr. Barnesian, vielleicht. UKIP had a lot of second places in Labour seats and could take votes from both parties.

    That does depend on its revival, but that's eminently possible.
  • FF43 said:

    A more decisive can kick than I was expecting. By cleverly rejecting both the two realistic options, Mrs May passes on the poisoned chalice to her successor about what Brexit does actually mean, probably without alienating either faction of her party because they agree the other realistic option is an abomination.

    You would think so, but she can't obfuscate what it means for Northern Ireland for much longer, otherwise there'll be no transition deal.

    It's an admirable attempt to make Brexit mean nothing, but events outside her control will intervene. Brexit will self-destruct.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    So these idiots have not landed us in a situation where we pay billions to pounds with no representation about how tax payers money is spent?

    Seriously? What a ******* shambles!
  • GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Time will tell but as far as I am concerned not a bad speech and it addressed some issues.

    Gone down well with the Italians apparently
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    So effectively we stay in the EU in all but name until 2021 then May likely hands over to Boris who can campaign for full Brexit and an end to free movement and any more payments to the EU in time for the 2022 general election

    No - we are out on the 29th March 2019 and the two years is a transition period only
    A 2 year transition period in which we keep paying billions more to the EU and free movement continues ie basically at least single market membership and effectively most of what we had to comply with in the EU anyway
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited September 2017


    Gone down well with the Italians apparently

    I'm sure it has. We've pledged to squander tens of billions of pounds our money for nothing whatsoever while making ourselves look a total shambles and frankly a global embarrassment.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So effectively we stay in the EU in all but name until 2021 then May likely hands over to Boris who can campaign for full Brexit and an end to free movement and any more payments to the EU in time for the 2022 general election

    No - we are out on the 29th March 2019 and the two years is a transition period only
    A transition period in which we keep paying billions more to the EU and free movement continues ie basically at least single market membership and effectively most of what we had to comply with in the EU anyway
    Membership of the single market - yes - membership of the EU - no
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited September 2017
    Telegraph have already got Farage’s rebuttal front and centre on their website (but behind their paywall). Anyone else reckon it was written before Mrs May sat down?

    They screwed up with Boris last weekend, now they’re screwing up again with Nigel.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657

    Corbyn:

    "Labour wants a Jobs-First Brexit that uses powers returned from Brussels to invest and upgrade Britain's economy."

    Does this actually mean anything?

    The only sense I can make of it, is that he means no State Aid rules, so he can mess about with industry and commerce as he sees fit.

    I cannot see how anyone takes Corbyn seriously. He has no position on Brexit other than that that maybe politically expedient for him. He is anti business and has no idea how he could manage a business friendly Brexit
    i think soft Brexit is less anti business than Tory Brexit.

    Never been more businesses coming to LAB conferences than this week
    The Tories got their highest voteshare at the last general election amongst the skilled working class C2 voters not managerial and professional AB voters
  • GIN1138 said:

    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    So these idiots have not landed us in a situation where we pay billions to pounds with no representation about how tax payers money is spent?

    Seriously? What a ******* shambles!
    General consensus seems that it is a necessary transition
  • Sandpit said:

    Telegraph have already got Farage’s rebuttal front and centre on their website (but behind their paywall). Anyone else reckon it was written before Mrs May sat down?

    They screwed up with Boris last weekend, now they’re screwing up again with Nigel.

    These days the Express has better coverage of European affairs than the Telegraph, and I'm not joking.
  • GIN1138 said:

    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    So these idiots have not landed us in a situation where we pay billions to pounds with no representation about how tax payers money is spent?

    Seriously? What a ******* shambles!
    Yes. Sadly I don't think it will get much traction outside core Remainers but that's where we are. At least two years where we are fully signed up but no EUCO seat, no council of ministers seat, no Commissioner , no MEPs. For at last 2 years we'll be the Peurto Rico of the European Union.
  • For at last 2 years we'll be the Peurto Rico of the European Union.

    And then we have a referendum about applying for statehood? :lol:
  • GIN1138 said:


    Gone down well with the Italians apparently

    I'm sure it has. We've pledged to squander tens of billions of pounds our money for nothing whatsoever while making ourselves look a total shambles and frankly a global embarrassment.
    The other option is WTO and walk away.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?
    Yes
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657
    FF43 said:

    A more decisive can kick than I was expecting. By cleverly rejecting both the two realistic options, Mrs May passes on the poisoned chalice to her successor about what Brexit does actually mean, probably without alienating either faction of her party because they agree the other realistic option is an abomination.

    May has effectively kept the status quo until 2021 when she will depart the scene and leave Boris and Corbyn to deal with the actual reality of Brexit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?


    Looks very unlikely.

    The political class will keep us trapped in some ghastly purgatory for years where we shell out hundreds of billions of pounds for god knows how long with no representation on how the money is spent at all.
  • theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    No wonder Nigel's pissed-off.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?

    Looks very unlikely.

    The political class will keep us trapped in some ghastly purgatory for years where we shell out hundreds of billions of pounds for god knows how long with no representation on how the money is spent at all.
    Good news... We can escape from purgatory by getting to the heart of the EU and joining the Euro. Our final reconciliation with our European destiny.
  • It's not clear to me exactly what the scope of the proposed transitional arrangements are - CFP and CAP, for example? Open skies? And will payments in to the UK continue, for science projects and regional aid? Also, from the EU's point of view, does this mean that they will conclude that the EMA has an extra two years before it needs to ship out?

    The devil is in the detail, as always.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?


    Looks very unlikely.

    The political class will keep us trapped in some ghastly purgatory for years where we shell out hundreds of billions of pounds for god knows how long with no representation on how the money is spent at all.
    Seems I will have to wait at least two additional years to see if my prediction that Brexit won't happen comes true.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    GIN1138 said:

    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    So these idiots have not landed us in a situation where we pay billions to pounds with no representation about how tax payers money is spent?

    Seriously? What a ******* shambles!
    General consensus seems that it is a necessary transition
    Mays tone has definitely changed in that direction, from the rhetoric of no deal is better than s bad deal.
  • Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    Wondering if Nigel will be tempted back to the helm after this manifest betrayal of all that is holy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    GIN1138 said:

    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    So these idiots have not landed us in a situation where we pay billions to pounds with no representation about how tax payers money is spent?

    Seriously? What a ******* shambles!
    General consensus seems that it is a necessary transition

    I voted to leave the European Union. I didn't vote for a "transitional" arrangement.

    A time-limited transition with an absolute maximum amount of money we're willing to spend might just about be acceptable...

    What these idiots are signing us up to is a "transition" with no end and unlimited (that's UNLIMITED) amounts of money spent for the privilege....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,657

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?

    Looks very unlikely.

    The political class will keep us trapped in some ghastly purgatory for years where we shell out hundreds of billions of pounds for god knows how long with no representation on how the money is spent at all.
    Good news... We can escape from purgatory by getting to the heart of the EU and joining the Euro. Our final reconciliation with our European destiny.
    No chance, single market membership is at least not eurozone membership (Though little different to what we had before). More likely we eventually rejoin EFTA as we were in from 1960 until we left to join the EEC in 1973
  • It's not clear to me exactly what the scope of the proposed transitional arrangements are - CFP and CAP, for example? Open skies? And will payments in to the UK continue, for science projects and regional aid? Also, from the EU's point of view, does this mean that they will conclude that the EMA has an extra two years before it needs to ship out?

    The devil is in the detail, as always.

    The detail has been set out months ago. For some reason you keep insisting this hasn't happened.

    Barnier reiterated it again yesterday.

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm

    I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically "this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply" – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited September 2017

    Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?

    Well she wouldn't dare deliver this speech in the UK would she?

    Her speech to the Tory Conference will be fun...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    What these idiots are signing us up to is a "transition" with no end and unlimited (that's UNLIMITED) amounts of money spent for the privilege....

    No they are not:

    at the heart of these arrangements, there should be a clear double lock: a guarantee that there will be a period of implementation giving businesses and people alike the certainty that they will be able to prepare for the change; and a guarantee that this implementation period will be time-limited, giving everyone the certainty that this will not go on for ever.

    Nor are they committing unlimited , let alone UNLIMITED, amounts of dosh:

    I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave. The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if Nigel will be tempted back to the helm after this manifest betrayal of all that is holy.

    Yes it sure is an opportunity to revive his faithfull supporters.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    GIN1138 said:

    What these idiots are signing us up to is a "transition" with no end and unlimited (that's UNLIMITED) amounts of money spent for the privilege....

    No they are not:

    at the heart of these arrangements, there should be a clear double lock: a guarantee that there will be a period of implementation giving businesses and people alike the certainty that they will be able to prepare for the change; and a guarantee that this implementation period will be time-limited, giving everyone the certainty that this will not go on for ever.

    Nor are they committing unlimited , let alone UNLIMITED, amounts of dosh:

    I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave. The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership.
    Until we hear exactly how much we're spending during this "transitional" period I'll hold my position that we could essentially be talking unlimited amounts of money.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    So these idiots have not landed us in a situation where we pay billions to pounds with no representation about how tax payers money is spent?

    Seriously? What a ******* shambles!
    General consensus seems that it is a necessary transition

    I voted to leave the European Union. I didn't vote for a "transitional" arrangement.

    A time-limited transition with an absolute maximum amount of money we're willing to spend might just about be acceptable...

    What these idiots are signing us up to is a "transition" with no end and unlimited (that's UNLIMITED) amounts of money spent for the privilege....
    The transition period is for two years with payments as now subject to agreement to discuss trade. It is not never ending and unlimited
  • It's not clear to me exactly what the scope of the proposed transitional arrangements are - CFP and CAP, for example? Open skies? And will payments in to the UK continue, for science projects and regional aid? Also, from the EU's point of view, does this mean that they will conclude that the EMA has an extra two years before it needs to ship out?

    The devil is in the detail, as always.

    The detail has been set out months ago. For some reason you keep insisting this hasn't happened.

    Barnier reiterated it again yesterday.

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm

    I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically "this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply" – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.
    Since this is a new proposal, the scope of which hasn't been defined, it would be miraculous indeed if the EU had managed to set out the detail months in advance.
  • Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?

    Renaissance City and looks as if it's worked for the Italians with strong backing for the speech and demand by them to Brussels to stop the punitive approach
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What these idiots are signing us up to is a "transition" with no end and unlimited (that's UNLIMITED) amounts of money spent for the privilege....

    No they are not:

    at the heart of these arrangements, there should be a clear double lock: a guarantee that there will be a period of implementation giving businesses and people alike the certainty that they will be able to prepare for the change; and a guarantee that this implementation period will be time-limited, giving everyone the certainty that this will not go on for ever.

    Nor are they committing unlimited , let alone UNLIMITED, amounts of dosh:

    I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave. The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership.
    Until we hear exactly how much we're spending during this "transitional" period I'll hold my position that we could essentially be talking unlimited amounts of money.
    You can stick to whatever position you like, but the fact is that 'these idiots' are proposing a time-limited transition with limited payments. Whether our EU friends will accept that proposal once we get into the detail remains to be seen, of course.
  • It's not clear to me exactly what the scope of the proposed transitional arrangements are - CFP and CAP, for example? Open skies? And will payments in to the UK continue, for science projects and regional aid? Also, from the EU's point of view, does this mean that they will conclude that the EMA has an extra two years before it needs to ship out?

    The devil is in the detail, as always.

    The detail has been set out months ago. For some reason you keep insisting this hasn't happened.

    Barnier reiterated it again yesterday.

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm

    I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically "this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply" – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.
    Since this is a new proposal, the scope of which hasn't been defined, it would be miraculous indeed if the EU had managed to set out the detail months in advance.
    The key phrase in May's speech was 'current terms'. May was conceding, not proposing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    Sandpit said:

    Telegraph have already got Farage’s rebuttal front and centre on their website (but behind their paywall). Anyone else reckon it was written before Mrs May sat down?

    They screwed up with Boris last weekend, now they’re screwing up again with Nigel.

    These days the Express has better coverage of European affairs than the Telegraph, and I'm not joking.
    The Telegraph is a mere shadow of its former self, from the click bait headlines to the obvious lack of sub-editing to all their opinion pieces disappearing from public view.

    I doubt they could break the expenses scandal again if someone handed them the disks. Bill Deedes will be turning in his grave.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?

    Well she wouldn't dare deliver this speech in the UK would she?

    Her speech to the Tory Conference will be fun...
    She should be OK now - Ken Clarke and Boris on same page
  • The key phrase in May's speech was 'current terms'. May was conceding, not proposing.

    Well yes, she was conceding the principles that the EU had laid out. That indeed is consistent with the point Phil Hammond has been making, that business needs certainty and doesn't want to have to make two sets of changes, one to go into the transitional arrangement and another at the end. So it's common-sense concession, in everyone's interests.
  • The key phrase in May's speech was 'current terms'. May was conceding, not proposing.

    Well yes, she was conceding the principles that the EU had laid out. That indeed is consistent with the point Phil Hammond has been making, that business needs certainty and doesn't want to have to make two sets of changes, one to go into the transitional arrangement and another at the end. So it's common-sense concession, in everyone's interests.
    Therefore it will look like full EU membership minus representation, as the EU proposed at the very beginning.
  • Yorkcity said:

    GIN1138 said:

    theakes said:

    Presumably we now particpate in the 2019 Euro Eelections. Funny old world.

    No - we leave on the 29th March 2019 - we will not participate in the 2019 euro elections
    So these idiots have not landed us in a situation where we pay billions to pounds with no representation about how tax payers money is spent?

    Seriously? What a ******* shambles!
    General consensus seems that it is a necessary transition
    Mays tone has definitely changed in that direction, from the rhetoric of no deal is better than s bad deal.

    Yep - today's tone was the one that should have been used from the start. It would also have got a lot more Remain voters onside and less concerned about Tory Brexit intentions.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?

    Looks very unlikely.

    The political class will keep us trapped in some ghastly purgatory for years where we shell out hundreds of billions of pounds for god knows how long with no representation on how the money is spent at all.
    Good news... We can escape from purgatory by getting to the heart of the EU and joining the Euro. Our final reconciliation with our European destiny.
    I'll give you this: your colours are nailed to the mast and you stick to your guns. Lunacy of course, but admirable in its dottiness.
  • HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    Do you think Brexit will happen?

    Looks very unlikely.

    The political class will keep us trapped in some ghastly purgatory for years where we shell out hundreds of billions of pounds for god knows how long with no representation on how the money is spent at all.
    Good news... We can escape from purgatory by getting to the heart of the EU and joining the Euro. Our final reconciliation with our European destiny.
    No chance, single market membership is at least not eurozone membership (Though little different to what we had before). More likely we eventually rejoin EFTA as we were in from 1960 until we left to join the EEC in 1973
    It is entirely possible that Leavers have handed a Britain that has rejoined the EU and joined the Euro, albeit in twenty years time (when today's young remainers are in the ascent).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2017

    The key phrase in May's speech was 'current terms'. May was conceding, not proposing.

    Well yes, she was conceding the principles that the EU had laid out. That indeed is consistent with the point Phil Hammond has been making, that business needs certainty and doesn't want to have to make two sets of changes, one to go into the transitional arrangement and another at the end. So it's common-sense concession, in everyone's interests.
    Therefore it will look like full EU membership minus representation, as the EU proposed at the very beginning.
    That was my question. I'm not clear whether it does mean that, or whether it will mean participation in some of the EU programmes, but not all. I agree that it means that the bits we do participate in will be under the same terms as now.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    GIN1138 said:

    Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?

    Well she wouldn't dare deliver this speech in the UK would she?

    Her speech to the Tory Conference will be fun...
    She should be OK now - Ken Clarke and Boris on same page
    But are the leave bigwigs of her backbenchers on the same page ?
  • It's not clear to me exactly what the scope of the proposed transitional arrangements are - CFP and CAP, for example? Open skies? And will payments in to the UK continue, for science projects and regional aid? Also, from the EU's point of view, does this mean that they will conclude that the EMA has an extra two years before it needs to ship out?

    The devil is in the detail, as always.

    I understood her to say that certain aspects of the transition might last longer than two years and others might last less, but that for two years post-Brexit we would guarantee to carry on paying what we are paying now. After that, the sum will presumably be part of the negotiation.

  • I understood her to say that certain aspects of the transition might last longer than two years and others might last less, but that for two years post-Brexit we would guarantee to carry on paying what we are paying now. After that, the sum will presumably be part of the negotiation.

    Yes, I think you are right, although it's not currently spelled out in any detail.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    So we'll gain the moral high ground while losing money and jobs. I suppose it depends on your priorities.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?

    Well she wouldn't dare deliver this speech in the UK would she?

    Her speech to the Tory Conference will be fun...
    She should be OK now - Ken Clarke and Boris on same page
    But are the leave bigwigs of her backbenchers on the same page ?
    You cannot please all the people all the time and some will be unhappy.

    However I think that we may have seen the avoidance of a hard Brexit and a Brexit that could command a majority view
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2017
    Assuming the detente holds through the Tory conference, Hammonds November budget looks to be the next major life-or-death flashpoint for the government.

    100% chance the tory right pick it apart.
  • Pong said:

    Assuming the detente holds through the Tory conference, Hammonds November budget looks to be the next major life-or-death flashpoint for the government.

    100% chance the tory right pick it apart.

    I expect he'll do very little in the budget.
  • The combination of yourself, the financial times and the Irish leader all taking the doom option is entirely predicable
  • Pong said:

    Assuming the detente holds through the Tory conference, Hammonds November budget looks to be the next major life-or-death flashpoint for the government.

    100% chance the tory right pick it apart.

    I expect he'll do very little in the budget.
    Public sector pay and something on student fees
  • I'm completely baffled by Leo Varadkar's position. Of all the players in the EU27, it is Ireland which has most to lose if we don't get talking about the future relationship ASAP.
  • The combination of yourself, the financial times and the Irish leader all taking the doom option is entirely predicable
    His actual comments are more sympathetic than the headline implies, but it's clear that the UK still needs to provide more detail.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2017

    Pong said:

    Assuming the detente holds through the Tory conference, Hammonds November budget looks to be the next major life-or-death flashpoint for the government.

    100% chance the tory right pick it apart.

    I expect he'll do very little in the budget.
    Public sector pay and something on student fees
    Yeah, and of course some Northern Irish pork deliveries!
  • I'm completely baffled by Leo Varadkar's position. Of all the players in the EU27, it is Ireland which has most to lose if we don't get talking about the future relationship ASAP.

    How would he cope with tariffs on Irish goods imported to the UK
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Yawn. Headline doesn't match content. Of course she isn't going to give details in a speech; that's for the negotiations next week.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?

    Well she wouldn't dare deliver this speech in the UK would she?

    Her speech to the Tory Conference will be fun...
    She should be OK now - Ken Clarke and Boris on same page
    But are the leave bigwigs of her backbenchers on the same page ?
    You cannot please all the people all the time and some will be unhappy.

    However I think that we may have seen the avoidance of a hard Brexit and a Brexit that could command a majority view

    I am hoping that today is the start of something. May should be pleased with herself today. She could just have broken free from the fundamentalists on the Tory right and neutered Boris in doing so. He is now tied into the process that May has set out. That means the transition - if it happens - and the final deal. What has to happen now, of course, is Davis putting detail onto the concessions that May has made.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    @rcs1000

    FPT

    I've never tried to beach an NDA before. Is that a California thing?

    Ah, the dangers of commenting from my phone.

    You guys are lucky that BA doesn't have wireless internet on planes yet. This means I'm going to be silent for the next eleven hours.
    Why aren't you flying Norwegian?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Did we ever find out why this speech had to be in Florence?

    Well she wouldn't dare deliver this speech in the UK would she?

    Her speech to the Tory Conference will be fun...
    She should be OK now - Ken Clarke and Boris on same page
    But are the leave bigwigs of her backbenchers on the same page ?
    You cannot please all the people all the time and some will be unhappy.

    However I think that we may have seen the avoidance of a hard Brexit and a Brexit that could command a majority view

    I am hoping that today is the start of something. May should be pleased with herself today. She could just have broken free from the fundamentalists on the Tory right and neutered Boris in doing so. He is now tied into the process that May has set out. That means the transition - if it happens - and the final deal. What has to happen now, of course, is Davis putting detail onto the concessions that May has made.
    She did well on the biggest speech of her career. Hope this is a big moment in the Brexit process
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,717

    rpjs said:

    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    Including the border for FOM?
    That's called the Irish Sea isn't it?
    Don't forget that even if we hard-exited tomorrow, there'd still be FOM between the UK and the Republic of Ireland for British and Irish citizens. The CTA is just the mechanism to implement it smoothly. The legal basis is the Ireland Act 1949, under which Irish citizens are not to be considered "foreign" under British immigration law and as a result are deemed to be "settled" in the UK from the moment they take up residence, and parallel Irish legislation.
    And Ireland are not in Schengen. So no one from France will be able to sneak into NI.
    They can just walk in nonchalantly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,717
    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May looking utterly pathetic and craven...

    She seems to have demeaned not only herself but the country, grovelling on her hands and knees to Mr Juncker.

    Embarrassing.

    GIN, you are surprised?
This discussion has been closed.