politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reaction to Theresa May’s Florence speech – as we are set to effectively remain in the EU until 2021
Summary – We will pay an unspecified amount for a two year transition period and bespoke trade deal.
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Lancaster House with a bit more about how much we like Europe, and none of the daft threats of stopping security considerations.
She's either totally out of her depth, or she's been forced to chisel away anything concrete by her critics and the cabinet - my guess is the latter.
From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.
The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
If a cake is eaten in a forest (Black Forest Gateau?), but we are not in the EU, do we still have it?
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/911234591792484352
Farage moaning like a whore on Sky News about the speech.
We're leaving. Sensibly. And none of this EEA softy malarkey.
Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?
https://twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/911215883476963329
What's more, I suspect the EU negotiators will want agreement on a) the long-term status of existing EU citizens in the UK and b) the payment for our liabilities before beginning negotiation of a transitional period.
I also don't see how Labour gets into power before 2022.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/22/theresa-may--florence-speech-brexit-eu-future-barnier-pm-to-outline-uks-brexit-future-in-vital-speech-in-florence-live-updates?page=with:block-59c51bd7e4b0ff24dc214f00#block-59c51bd7e4b0ff24dc214f00
This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
The key point from today’s speech is that the PM is offering to keep membership payments for a couple of years to help their budget as we transition to a trade deal - no-one but Farage is thinking that’s a silly thing to do, the two year deadline was always going to be too tight to do the job properly.
"On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."
Too early to call the next GE, but I think we're in for a Parliament of ailing MPs being delivered to Westminster in ambulances to be pushed through the lobbies for crucial votes.
The DUP should be smiling today, and so should Labour. This is just prolonging the agony for the Conservatives.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/angus-mearns/504054/newly-elected-angus-mp-kirstene-hair-reveals-not-vote-brexit-referendum/
It is not the hard/soft-Brexit or the GE, both of which might be winnable by the Cons. It is the confluence of the two.
Same conundrum defeated Dave in his 'negotiations'.
Regulatory compliance is more important. Are you prepared to allow any medical device of any quality to be used in the UK? If not then how do you control quality without import checks? If you need import checks, how do you pay for them without import duties?
FYI FPT ....
remind me (apologies) - are you a bookseller?
Providing it is time limited and we've actually left the political apparatus, I have no problem with a transition. It could be 5 yeas if necessary, providing it is irrevocable.
UK and ROI will both remain members of the Common Travel Area after we leave the EU, which defines who is allowed past the border.
If we can agree a transition period to implement whatever happens to the long-term deal negotiations, then even if those negotiations fail we both have two years to get things in order.
I suspect that somewhere in Westminster somebody has a date at which we need to agree a transition deal by, quite possibly by the end of this year. So that if we can't even agree a transition period with the EU we still have 16 months or so to prepare for exit.
FPT
I've never tried to beach an NDA before. Is that a California thing?