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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reaction to Theresa May’s Florence speech – as we are set

SystemSystem Posts: 12,259
edited September 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reaction to Theresa May’s Florence speech – as we are set to effectively remain in the EU until 2021

Summary – We will pay an unspecified amount for a two year transition period and bespoke trade deal.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,268
    edited September 2017
    Second class.
  • Is Fox out of a job then?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Third degree....
  • Is Fox out of a job then?

    No, he's stuck in it for another two years.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Was that it? Seriously? That is the product of all the economic, political & civil service thinking 6 months after triggering A50?

    Lancaster House with a bit more about how much we like Europe, and none of the daft threats of stopping security considerations.

    She's either totally out of her depth, or she's been forced to chisel away anything concrete by her critics and the cabinet - my guess is the latter.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    FPT:

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110
    fpt
    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    This is a question for the metaphysicists.

    If a cake is eaten in a forest (Black Forest Gateau?), but we are not in the EU, do we still have it?
  • This tells us what the original speech said:
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/911234591792484352
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    As someone wrote earlier, we should stop thinking of Norway and Canada and instead start thinking that we are Puerto Rico.
  • Called it.

    Farage moaning like a whore on Sky News about the speech.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    27 othersmay want a say in that!
  • RoyalBlue said:

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!

    I thought you were having genuine doubts about whether it was the right thing to do. Have they gone away?
  • surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    No it hasn't - May says categorically we leave on the 29th March 2019 irrespective
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    May unable to answer about whether we will be subject to new EU rules agreed during implementation period. If yes - I think that is going to be hard to stomach for many...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,518
    surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    With the agreement of the EU.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
  • Serious question for our Leavers. They'll now be 4 years 9 months between the Referendum result and the end of the transition. What happens if voters just genuinely change their minds ? What is the democratic " half life " on the referendum result ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Ha. As I've been saying, the golden rule of Brexit is that whatever the Remainers pin their hopes on turns out to be good for Leave.

    We're leaving. Sensibly. And none of this EEA softy malarkey.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2017
    As I wrote yesterday, the question wasn't what was going to be in the speech, which as expected is a rework of Lancaster House with a bit more on concessions on money, the ECJ and the transition. The question is what our EU friends are going to say. Are they going to pretend that 'progress has been made', or are they going to continue with their bonkers position that we can't discuss the core issues until we've settled things which can't be settled until we know what the final deal will look like?

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?
  • Theresa has completely stuffed Boris. He'll have to resign or be the second Portillo.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    About right, with a few twiddly bits.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Theresa has completely stuffed Boris. He'll have to resign or be the second Portillo.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/911235701236215808
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    A classic example of how all key politicians in this country, May as well as Corbyn are not prepared to implement the will of the People in the referendum. It will simply fuel the revival of UKIP and other extremists.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rkrkrk said:

    May unable to answer about whether we will be subject to new EU rules agreed during implementation period. If yes - I think that is going to be hard to stomach for many...

    I can't see the EU being happy with a country being in the single market but having a cut-off date after which no new or amended SM rules will be applied.

    What's more, I suspect the EU negotiators will want agreement on a) the long-term status of existing EU citizens in the UK and b) the payment for our liabilities before beginning negotiation of a transitional period.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110
    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
    Yes. It really comes down to whether the govt can actually negotiate everything they need to negotiate by March 2021. If so, then we will leave, if not, or they want another extension or..or...taking us into election year, then everything's in play.
  • surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    No it hasn't - May says categorically we leave on the 29th March 2019 irrespective

    We Leave In Name Only - if the EU agrees.

  • calum said:

    Theresa has completely stuffed Boris. He'll have to resign or be the second Portillo.

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/911235701236215808
    Ha, ha! Boris has disgraced himself in the eyes of the true believers. He's finished.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Is he of the Jacques Delors Institute?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    We'd still be out. People who think EEA membership means we're a colony of the EU don't understand how global trade relations are developing. The EU is quite often a delivery mechanism for global regulation, not the ultimate source.

    I also don't see how Labour gets into power before 2022.
  • Well no Tory MPs had better croak after that. Sustain another 3.5 years of A50/Transition is going to take parliamentary stamina. I imagine the DUP will be ecstatic. The price of there continued support just increased significantly.
  • So, we stay in all EU structures for at least another four years, we essentially follow EU regulations after that and we develop a new court to ensure everything runs smoothly. Thus, we wave goodbye to an FTA with the US. No bad thing. Essentially, not much is going to change, is it? If the EU agrees.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    We'd still be out. People who think EEA membership means we're a colony of the EU don't understand how global trade relations are developing. The EU is quite often a delivery mechanism for global regulation, not the ultimate source.

    I also don't see how Labour gets into power before 2022.
    We'll be nominally out but effectively still in during transition, and I suspect there's as much chnce of transition being 5 years as 2. Creating a new not-Norway/not-Canada FTA will take a v long time.
  • Didn't Norway break a previous conservative administration?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2017
    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
    Yes. It really comes down to whether the govt can actually negotiate everything they need to negotiate by March 2021. If so, then we will leave, if not, or they want another extension or..or...taking us into election year, then everything's in play.
    Don't think it's politically possible for them to get to 2022 election without "leaving". That would therefore mean either we agree a framework beforehand so both sides are just talking 2019-21 about the "how" not the "where to", and or you actually prepare for WTO with customs officers etc to give the ultimate choice some teeth.
  • surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    No it hasn't - May says categorically we leave on the 29th March 2019 irrespective

    We Leave In Name Only - if the EU agrees.

    LINO alert!
  • The government has always insisted that in March 2019 we will leave the single market and the customs union. Now that sounds like a semantic evasion. On the basis of what May said, it sounds as if we are staying in until March 2021.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/sep/22/theresa-may--florence-speech-brexit-eu-future-barnier-pm-to-outline-uks-brexit-future-in-vital-speech-in-florence-live-updates?page=with:block-59c51bd7e4b0ff24dc214f00#block-59c51bd7e4b0ff24dc214f00
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Serious question for our Leavers. They'll now be 4 years 9 months between the Referendum result and the end of the transition. What happens if voters just genuinely change their minds ? What is the democratic " half life " on the referendum result ?

    We'll be out in 18 months. We will have crossed the event horizon.
  • TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
    Yes. It really comes down to whether the govt can actually negotiate everything they need to negotiate by March 2021. If so, then we will leave, if not, or they want another extension or..or...taking us into election year, then everything's in play.
    It could be a race to rejoin between Scotland as an independent country or the UK as a whole. Perhaps that's why May said 'now is not the time'. If she is doing this out of a sense of duty to implement the referendum result, she wants to get us to the point of being legally out without anything else at all being settled.
  • Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
  • My instinct is the EU isn't going to reject that speech. They'll judge correctly it's the first stage in the collapse of our negotiating position. They'll keep talking positively and let the clock run down. They'll make it clear the product we're seeking is available but wait as we slowly but surely up the price we are prepared to pay.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,633

    Serious question for our Leavers. They'll now be 4 years 9 months between the Referendum result and the end of the transition. What happens if voters just genuinely change their minds ? What is the democratic " half life " on the referendum result ?

    How will we know if voters change their minds given the polling lead `in` enjoyed throughout the referendum ?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Called it.

    Farage moaning like a whore on Sky News about the speech.

    You were spot on This speech means as the xtc song states"making plans for Nigel " goes on.
  • As I wrote yesterday, the question wasn't what was going to be in the speech, which as expected is a rework of Lancaster House with a bit more on concessions on money, the ECJ and the transition. The question is what our EU friends are going to say. Are they going to pretend that 'progress has been made', or are they going to continue with their bonkers position that we can't discuss the core issues until we've settled things which can't be settled until we know what the final deal will look like?

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    May's given the EU what they want on the money and probably on citizens' rights. Northern Ireland is a far tougher one, so she skirted it. That's not sustainable, of course.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
    Yes. It really comes down to whether the govt can actually negotiate everything they need to negotiate by March 2021. If so, then we will leave, if not, or they want another extension or..or...taking us into election year, then everything's in play.
    Don't think it's politically possible for them to get to 2022 election without "leaving". That would therefore mean either we agree a framework beforehand so both sides are just talking 2019-21 about the "how" not the "where to", and or you actually prepare for WTO with customs officers etc to give the ultimate choice some teeth.
    No, they'll say we have left in March 2019... leaving the transition period could take forever though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,763
    POTMWAS
  • This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.

    Either that or they grasp the nettle and request special status. The fact that they are not doing this does suggest they want to kick the can indefinitely, on everything.
  • Theresa has completely stuffed Boris. He'll have to resign or be the second Portillo.

    He seems happy so far.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    No it hasn't - May says categorically we leave on the 29th March 2019 irrespective
    Yep, we’re leaving!

    The key point from today’s speech is that the PM is offering to keep membership payments for a couple of years to help their budget as we transition to a trade deal - no-one but Farage is thinking that’s a silly thing to do, the two year deadline was always going to be too tight to do the job properly.
  • Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."
  • So, we're in the EEA until at least 2021 at which point we'll have had 4+ years of Conservative Brexiteers tearing each other apart, no economic upside yet, and a generational profile ever inclining further towards Remain.

    Too early to call the next GE, but I think we're in for a Parliament of ailing MPs being delivered to Westminster in ambulances to be pushed through the lobbies for crucial votes.

    The DUP should be smiling today, and so should Labour. This is just prolonging the agony for the Conservatives.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    tpfkar said:

    Was that it? Seriously? That is the product of all the economic, political & civil service thinking 6 months after triggering A50?
    Lancaster House with a bit more about how much we like Europe, and none of the daft threats of stopping security considerations.
    She's either totally out of her depth, or she's been forced to chisel away anything concrete by her critics and the cabinet - my guess is the latter.

    Both, I would have thought. Poor silly woman.
  • Sandpit said:

    The key point from today’s speech is that the PM is offering to keep membership payments for a couple of years to help their budget as we transition to a trade deal - no-one but Farage is thinking that’s a silly thing to do, the two year deadline was always going to be too tight to do the job properly.

    And what do you think that trade deal will look like? The implication of her speech is that neither the Canada or Norway models will give us close enough access. She wants de facto membership without being members and that is impossible.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Called it.

    Farage moaning like a whore on Sky News about the speech.

    You were spot on This speech means as the xtc song states"making plans for Nigel " goes on.
    He was going to moan whatever was said.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
    Yes. It really comes down to whether the govt can actually negotiate everything they need to negotiate by March 2021. If so, then we will leave, if not, or they want another extension or..or...taking us into election year, then everything's in play.
    Don't think it's politically possible for them to get to 2022 election without "leaving". That would therefore mean either we agree a framework beforehand so both sides are just talking 2019-21 about the "how" not the "where to", and or you actually prepare for WTO with customs officers etc to give the ultimate choice some teeth.
    No, they'll say we have left in March 2019... leaving the transition period could take forever though.
    I think the acid test is something tangible and meaningful on FOM. Kicking that can down the road forever will just be like sending a reviving lightening charge through the twitching corpse that is UKIP.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,746

    surbiton said:

    My summary: The 2 year Art.50 deadline has become 4 years.

    No it hasn't - May says categorically we leave on the 29th March 2019 irrespective
    You're right. She said that and explained that we would have no MEPs. That is what she meant by leaving the EU. But she went to explain that in all other respects (single market, CU, ECJ, contributions) we would remain in. So that's OK.
  • Augustinian Brexit: Oh Lord, give me control but not yet.
  • Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    Fine, that's a strategy for trying to avoid the political blame for border checks, but trying to force the EU to abandon external tariffs in such a way will not go down well in Brussels.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    There's far more to being in a customs union than simply eliminating tariffs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110
    edited September 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Serious question for our Leavers. They'll now be 4 years 9 months between the Referendum result and the end of the transition. What happens if voters just genuinely change their minds ? What is the democratic " half life " on the referendum result ?

    How will we know if voters change their minds given the polling lead `in` enjoyed throughout the referendum ?
    They don't all need to change their minds. Another referendum Leave would likely win. But a GE which is a proxy soft-Brexit/EEA vs hard Brexit referendum then I'm pretty sure Lab/soft-Brexit would edge it.

    It is not the hard/soft-Brexit or the GE, both of which might be winnable by the Cons. It is the confluence of the two.
  • Didn't Barnier vow to respond to May's Florentine speech within 15 minutes ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    Including the border for FOM?
  • Didn't Barnier vow to respond to May's Florentine speech within 15 minutes ?

    He probably can't stop laughing.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
  • PClipp said:

    tpfkar said:

    Was that it? Seriously? That is the product of all the economic, political & civil service thinking 6 months after triggering A50?
    Lancaster House with a bit more about how much we like Europe, and none of the daft threats of stopping security considerations.
    She's either totally out of her depth, or she's been forced to chisel away anything concrete by her critics and the cabinet - my guess is the latter.

    Both, I would have thought. Poor silly woman.
    The pretty iced cake she wants she can't have. Single market with no FOM. Simple.

    Same conundrum defeated Dave in his 'negotiations'.
  • rpjs said:

    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    There's far more to being in a customs union than simply eliminating tariffs.

    Regulatory compliance is more important. Are you prepared to allow any medical device of any quality to be used in the UK? If not then how do you control quality without import checks? If you need import checks, how do you pay for them without import duties?

  • Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    Including the border for FOM?
    That's called the Irish Sea isn't it?
  • Didn't Barnier vow to respond to May's Florentine speech within 15 minutes ?

    He probably can't stop laughing.
    :lol:
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    Mr @Mortimer

    FYI FPT ....

    FFS it is obvious that WTO is the only way we can actually get out of this hellish organisation.

    They obviously won't give us a decent deal, so she needs to grow a pair and get on with it.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    Transition only exists if a deal has been signed off. No deal means no transition either.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,995
    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    I agree with the summary. If we are going to end up with WTO, which is entirely possible and maybe the most likely outcome, then we and the EU will need more time to prepare.
  • Thinking further about this speech: the puzzling thing about it is that it was so heavily focused on the transitional arrangements. Perhaps, though, that is quite smart: if she gets lots of support on this from European business interests, and from those EU27 countries whose economies are most at risk of damage from a chaotic crash-out in 18 months' time, then that of itself could provide a face-saving way for the negotiations to be moved off the log-jam of the EU's three preliminary demands, on the the future relationship. A lot will depend on how much lobbying and chivvying the UK has been doing behind the scenes.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110
    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    off-topic

    remind me (apologies) - are you a bookseller?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110
    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    Nigel doesn't want one. Why? Goodness only knows. He will have his Brexit for decades to come what's a year or two here or there?
  • Regulatory compliance is more important. Are you prepared to allow any medical device of any quality to be used in the UK? If not then how do you control quality without import checks? If you need import checks, how do you pay for them without import duties?

    It wouldn't be any medical device of any quality. It would be any medical device which meets EU standards. I see no reason why we shouldn't accept that without further checks. We do at the moment, after all.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    I thought the 2 years A50 process was the transition.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited September 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    Including the border for FOM?
    That's called the Irish Sea isn't it?
    Don't forget that even if we hard-exited tomorrow, there'd still be FOM between the UK and the Republic of Ireland for British and Irish citizens. The CTA is just the mechanism to implement it smoothly. The legal basis is the Ireland Act 1949, under which Irish citizens are not to be considered "foreign" under British immigration law and as a result are deemed to be "settled" in the UK from the moment they take up residence, and parallel Irish legislation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518
    edited September 2017

    Sandpit said:

    The key point from today’s speech is that the PM is offering to keep membership payments for a couple of years to help their budget as we transition to a trade deal - no-one but Farage is thinking that’s a silly thing to do, the two year deadline was always going to be too tight to do the job properly.

    And what do you think that trade deal will look like? The implication of her speech is that neither the Canada or Norway models will give us close enough access. She wants de facto membership without being members and that is impossible.
    My reading of it was that she’s looking for somewhere between Canada and Norway, given that our regulations are already much more harmonised than was the case with Canada. We don’t want to go as far as Norway, who are basically in the EU but with no say in the regulations.
  • welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
    Yes. It really comes down to whether the govt can actually negotiate everything they need to negotiate by March 2021. If so, then we will leave, if not, or they want another extension or..or...taking us into election year, then everything's in play.
    Don't think it's politically possible for them to get to 2022 election without "leaving". That would therefore mean either we agree a framework beforehand so both sides are just talking 2019-21 about the "how" not the "where to", and or you actually prepare for WTO with customs officers etc to give the ultimate choice some teeth.
    Unless the UK specifically applies for and gets the agreement of all 27 countries for a formal extension to the negotiations after 2019 then there will be no further discussion after that date. That is set in stone by Article 50. If the agreement is not signed off before March 2019 we fall out into WTO and the transition period doesn't happen.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    off-topic

    remind me (apologies) - are you a bookseller?
    I am indeed - Antiquarian bookseller.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866
    rkrkrk said:

    Alistair said:
    Alistair said:
    I was about to share the same!

    I think it's worth noting as well that as a private company uber can be selective about what it releases. It's not unreasonable to assume we are getting a very positive spin - and even then as the series makes clear - the numbers aren't good.
    While I can't beach an NDA, the underlying operating metrics for Uber in mature markets are very good. Investors aren't all idiots.
  • rpjs said:

    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    Including the border for FOM?
    That's called the Irish Sea isn't it?
    Don't forget that even if we hard-exited tomorrow, there'd still be FOM between the UK and the Republic of Ireland for British and Irish citizens. The CTA is just the mechanism to implement it smoothly. The legal basis is the Ireland Act 1949, under which Irish citizens are not to be considered "foreign" under British immigration law and as a result are deemed to be "settled" in the UK from the moment they take up residence, and parallel Irish legislation.
    And Ireland are not in Schengen. So no one from France will be able to sneak into NI.
  • Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    I thought the 2 years A50 process was the transition.
    No. As long as we are in the 2 year negotiation period we remain full members
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    Nigel doesn't want one. Why? Goodness only knows. He will have his Brexit for decades to come what's a year or two here or there?
    I find it baffling. Just listened to him on the BBC.

    Providing it is time limited and we've actually left the political apparatus, I have no problem with a transition. It could be 5 yeas if necessary, providing it is irrevocable.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,518

    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, wasn't Ireland the issue which didn't bark in the speech?

    She was quoted by the Guardian as saying:

    She says the UK and the EU have committed to protecting the Good Friday agreement and the common travel area. And they have said they will not allow physical border controls.

    I thought this was a bit of a bold statement. Certainly neither side want physical border controls, but if the UK leaves the Customs Union it is hard to see how they are avoidable.

    This is the sort of impossible to square contradiction that could see a finite implementation period indefinitely renewed, if you take the speech at face value.
    That’s simple - we say (as the PM did today) that we don’t want tariffs on EU imports. Any border or tariff is then entirely up to the EU side.
    Including the border for FOM?
    FOM isn’t to do with people at the border, it’s to do with issuing NI numbers and entitlement to benefits and government services.

    UK and ROI will both remain members of the Common Travel Area after we leave the EU, which defines who is allowed past the border.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,866

    Called it.

    Farage moaning like a whore on Sky News about the speech.

    Just as a matter of interest, how does a whore moan?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    RoyalBlue said:

    If these questions are anything to go by May is in serious danger of losing the right wing press.

    From WhatsApping my fellow Leavers, no-one feels betrayed about 2 years of effective non-voting membership.

    The Cabinet is united. We are leaving. Alleluia!
    Yes. I get that. However long it takes, whatever the ins and outs and negotiations all is good in Leaverstan.

    Except. The general election. Lab will be aware that a commitment to do something anti-Leaver-ish (say EEA/EFTA/etc) might just get them back into power and then where's your leaving?
    Depends if election is post 2021 to an extent.
    Yes. It really comes down to whether the govt can actually negotiate everything they need to negotiate by March 2021. If so, then we will leave, if not, or they want another extension or..or...taking us into election year, then everything's in play.
    Don't think it's politically possible for them to get to 2022 election without "leaving". That would therefore mean either we agree a framework beforehand so both sides are just talking 2019-21 about the "how" not the "where to", and or you actually prepare for WTO with customs officers etc to give the ultimate choice some teeth.
    Unless the UK specifically applies for and gets the agreement of all 27 countries for a formal extension to the negotiations after 2019 then there will be no further discussion after that date. That is set in stone by Article 50. If the agreement is not signed off before March 2019 we fall out into WTO and the transition period doesn't happen.
    Would she have announced it if she hadn't had a nod or a wink that all would be agreed?
  • TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    Nigel doesn't want one. Why? Goodness only knows. He will have his Brexit for decades to come what's a year or two here or there?
    The transitionary period proposal is just an excuse for sloth. The two years after activating A50 is ample if there's a will.
  • Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    Nigel doesn't want one. Why? Goodness only knows. He will have his Brexit for decades to come what's a year or two here or there?
    I find it baffling. Just listened to him on the BBC.

    Providing it is time limited and we've actually left the political apparatus, I have no problem with a transition. It could be 5 yeas if necessary, providing it is irrevocable.
    Fifty years?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,995
    edited September 2017

    I thought the 2 years A50 process was the transition.

    In theory, but in reality you could end up with the whole deal falling through shortly before the end of the negotiation process. Leaving a very short time to prepare for crashing out of the EU.

    If we can agree a transition period to implement whatever happens to the long-term deal negotiations, then even if those negotiations fail we both have two years to get things in order.

    I suspect that somewhere in Westminster somebody has a date at which we need to agree a transition deal by, quite possibly by the end of this year. So that if we can't even agree a transition period with the EU we still have 16 months or so to prepare for exit.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Called it.

    Farage moaning like a whore on Sky News about the speech.

    Just as a matter of interest, how does a whore moan?
    I expect @TSE will be able to direct you to the appropriate websites, but it's probably better to use Vanillamail for that,
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,110
    Mortimer said:

    TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    off-topic

    remind me (apologies) - are you a bookseller?
    I am indeed - Antiquarian bookseller.
    PM ing you, don't think it is up your street...but...
  • TOPPING said:

    Mortimer said:

    Guardian snap verdict:

    "On the basis of what we have just heard, the softies have won some decisive victories over the transition period. But, in the long term, the hard mob have the upper hand. It will be a transit to a fairly hard Brexit."

    That is a very fair snap judgement. Though I'm still bemused by this idea that Brextiteers didn't want a transition or didn't accept what it would involve. Do any Leavers on here not want a transition? It is just common sense surely?
    Nigel doesn't want one. Why? Goodness only knows. He will have his Brexit for decades to come what's a year or two here or there?
    The transitionary period proposal is just an excuse for sloth. The two years after activating A50 is ample if there's a will.
    It's "impossible" to implement WTO apparently, despite the entire framework and ruleset existing already.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2017
    @rcs1000

    FPT

    I've never tried to beach an NDA before. Is that a California thing?
This discussion has been closed.