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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lord Adonis guide to predicting elections: Best leader win

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,739
    SeanT said:

    ...This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying)...Yes, I got married.

    Congratulations, and here's to a long and happy life together.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    edited September 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    So given that this has been May.

    It means

    Much like puttinar
    Kinnock did win an additional 42 seats
    Kinnock only won an additional 42 seatority as SNP MPs will back Labour anyway

    His st
    I disagree . Many of the Labour voters who switched to the Tories this year did so on an 'Anti - Corbyn' basis which was very distinct
    Corbyn
    which is more damaging

    dementia tax or university fees ?
    The former as it cost the Tories
    not that
    The Tories won a majority in 2015,
    the student
    Even on .
    You
    Grandpa Fox has a house
    Well it is hardly going to be helped if the older generation get to keep a wealthy asset the entirety of their lives and then their children get to inherit virtually none of it if they get dementia and need personal care now is it.

    Reducing immigration also reduces the number who will themselves need care at some future stage and healthcare, education, housing etc too. Given the focus is on reducing low skilled rather than high skilled immigration those who make the greatest net contribution to the country will still in the main be able to come here.

    Load taxpayers with yet more taxes to fund universities and you not only place a burden on a higher percentage of the population than fees you also fail to provide the investment our universities need to remain at the top of the league table
    It is all about whether we have policies that favour the young, or the retired. I think May suffered substantially by favouring the latter.

    Jezza hadn't done his sums, but his policy resonated because at least he recognises that there is a problem. A big one too.
    She still won almost 60 more seats than Corbyn did she not despite her dementia tax debacle?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,739
    edited September 2017

    It doesn't inspire.

    And don't even get me start about the idiot who wonders 'And did those feet in ancient time...'

    The answer is NO.

    Prove it... :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I agree with the opponents of student loans. It is a subject on which I have almost completely changed my mind.

    It's not working. It needs to be majorly finessed, or scrapped entirely.

    What needs to happen is a proper market, slash fees for the lowest ranked universities and degrees with the lowest graduate premium, double them for Russell Group universities and degrees which will produce investment bankers, corporate lawyers, doctors and Google and Apple employees.

    The problem with fees is the universal £9000 fee not the principle of fees themselves
    Yes. That makes a lot of sense to me.
    Just needs a politician to take the plunge
    The current policy is basically a graduate tax that turns off after 30 years. Why not just turn it into an actual graduate tax. The rate could be a lot lower if people pay it for the rest of their lives.
    I would have no problem with that combined with properly differentiated course fees
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    So given that this has been May.

    It means

    Much like puttinar
    Kinnock did win an additional 42 seats
    Kinnock only won an additional 42 seatority as SNP MPs will back Labour anyway

    His st
    I disagree . Many of the Labour voters who switched to the Tories this year did so on an 'Anti - Corbyn' basis which was very distinct
    Corbyn
    which is more damaging

    dementia tax or university fees ?
    The former as it cost the Tories
    not that
    The Tories won a majority in 2015,
    the student
    Even on .
    You
    Grandpa Fox has a house
    Well it is hardly going to be helped if the older generation get to keep a wealthy asset the entirety of their lives and then their children get to inherit virtually none of it if they get dementia and need personal care now is it.

    Reducing immigration also reduces the number who will themselves need care at some future stage and healthcare, education, housing etc too. Given the focus is on reducing low skilled rather than high skilled immigration those who make the greatest net contribution to the country will still in the main be able to come here.

    Load taxpayers with yet more taxes to fund universities and you not only place a burden on a higher percentage of the population than fees you also fail to provide the investment our universities need to remain at the top of the league table
    It is all about whether we have policies that favour the young, or the retired. I think May suffered substantially by favouring the latter.

    Jezza hadn't done his sums, but his policy resonated because at least he recognises that there is a problem. A big one too.
    She still won almost 60 more seats than Corbyn did she not despite her dementia tax debacle?
    He gained seats, Tories lost them.

    By your scoring system the SNP won Scotland and the Tories scraped home.

    By all means stay delusional on this subject, it will only get to be a bigger issue the longer it goes on.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,739
    HYUFD said:

    double them for Russell Group universities and degrees which will produce investment bankers, corporate lawyers...

    halve them, surely... :)

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,739
    SeanT said:

    Crowdfund a mob of blue-painted Greek dwarves to throw profiteroles at Prince William?

    Pause.

    Can we do that? ... :)

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Do explain how you intend to stop Brexit? I want Brexit. It is happening.

    Spectacularly missing the point once again.

    What Brexiteers need to explain is why none of the good things they promised are happening, and all of the bad things they said were "Project Fear" are actually happening

    Get Over It, isn't going to cut it in the long run...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    So given that this has been May.

    It means

    Much like puttinar
    Kinnock did win an additional 42 seats
    Kinnock only won an additional 42 seatority as SNP MPs will back Labour anyway

    His st
    I disagree . Many of the Labour voters who switched to the Tories this year did so on an 'Anti - Corbyn' basis which was very distinct
    Corbyn
    which is more damaging

    dementia tax or university fees ?
    The former as it cost the Tories
    not that
    The Tories won a majority in 2015,
    the student
    Even on .
    You
    Grandpa Fox has a house
    Well it is hardly going to be helped if the older generation get to keep a wealthy asset the entirety of their lives and then their children get to inherit virtually none of it if they get dementia and need personal care now is it.

    Reducing immigration also reduces league table
    It is all about whether we have policies that favour the young, or the retired. I think May suffered substantially by favouring the latter.

    Jezza hadn't done his sums, but his policy resonated because at least he recognises that there is a problem. A big one too.
    She still won almost 60 more seats than Corbyn did she not despite her dementia tax debacle?
    He gained seats, Tories lost them.

    By your scoring system the SNP won Scotland and the Tories scraped home.

    By all means stay delusional on this subject, it will only get to be a bigger issue the longer it goes on.
    The SNP did win most seats in Scotland certainly, although clearly with far less of a mandate than in 2015.

    There is nothing delusional about keeping university fees, with a proper market for them, the delusion is wanting to scrap them and leave the taxpayer to foot the entire bill
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    viewcode said:


    HYUFD said:

    double them for Russell Group universities and degrees which will produce investment bankers, corporate lawyers...

    halve them, surely... :)

    Given City lawyers and bankers could pay them off within a decade or so I think not
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Do explain how you intend to stop Brexit? I want Brexit. It is happening.

    Spectacularly missing the point once again.

    What Brexiteers need to explain is why none of the good things they promised are happening, and all of the bad things they said were "Project Fear" are actually happening

    Get Over It, isn't going to cut it in the long run...
    Yes this depression Osborne predicted and the 20% unemployment rate is devastating isn't it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,739
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:


    HYUFD said:

    double them for Russell Group universities and degrees which will produce investment bankers, corporate lawyers...

    halve them, surely... :)

    Given City lawyers and bankers could pay them off within a decade or so I think not
    It's late. My brain stopped working.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,681
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:


    HYUFD said:

    double them for Russell Group universities and degrees which will produce investment bankers, corporate lawyers...

    halve them, surely... :)

    Given City lawyers and bankers could pay them off within a decade or so I think not
    It's late. My brain stopped working.
    No matter. Goodnight
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Do explain how you intend to stop Brexit? I want Brexit. It is happening.

    Spectacularly missing the point once again.

    What Brexiteers need to explain is why none of the good things they promised are happening, and all of the bad things they said were "Project Fear" are actually happening

    Get Over It, isn't going to cut it in the long run...
    Yes this depression Osborne predicted and the 20% unemployment rate is devastating isn't it
    I'm really not looking forward to the world war Brexit is going to cause either.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Think we should give uk cars - jags, tvr, range rover sport, etc., 100 mph speed limits on motorways - as an incentive to sales.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,524
    edited September 2017
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    We Brexiteers don't have to do anything. We don't have to engage or persuade or caucus.

    Keep telling yourself that if it helps you sleep at night
    Jesus F Christ.

    Do explain how you intend to stop Brexit? I want Brexit. It is happening. I sleep fine, unless my absurdly youthful wife wakes me with her nimble fingers.

    You're the one shouting into the void, desperate to undermine Brexit. What's your cunning plan? Crowdfund a mob of blue-painted Greek dwarves to throw profiteroles at Prince William?
    Too pissed to concentrate on yet another Brexit kerfuffle! Big up and best of British to @SeanT and his youthful Mrs!
  • Sorry to pitch in at a tangent, but someone here is bound to know. A friend asked me yesterday for the date of the most recent Tory-led cabinet that was empty of Old Etonians. I figured it was no later than 1806. Was it one of the Pitt the Younger administrations?
  • PAW said:

    Think we should give uk cars - jags, tvr, range rover sport, etc., 100 mph speed limits on motorways - as an incentive to sales.

    Range Rover (German) and Jaguar (Indian) are NOT British cars.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,849

    PAW said:

    Think we should give uk cars - jags, tvr, range rover sport, etc., 100 mph speed limits on motorways - as an incentive to sales.

    Range Rover (German) and Jaguar (Indian) are NOT British cars.
    Range Rover is Indian too.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,406
    Did anyone see this:
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-highlights-lingering-divisions-in-the-gop-1504811662

    Of republicans who voted for Trump in the R primary - 98% approve of the job he's doing.... he's got a helluva base.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    SeanT said:

    ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

    First of all, congratulations on your marriage, may you have a long and happy life together.

    Oman’s a wonderful place, full of lovely people and culture, probably more so than anywhere else in the region.

    If you can, take some time away from your nice hotels and do some exploring in the desert and the mountains, you can rent a 4x4 with a driver if you want to do some proper off-roading in the dunes. If you go out on your own, be well prepared and stick to the roads.

    Muscat is one of the oldest cities in the world, lots of old forts and museums, although some of the latter keep rather odd opening hours. The Grand Mosque, as others have said, is an astoundingly beautiful building.

    Salalah is a coastal resort, great place for scuba diving and noticeably cooler than elsewhere - which is usuful at this time of year. Again, go and explore rather than just sitting in the pool bar drinking margaritas all day, no matter how tempting that may be ;)
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    You may as well say that no party leader who was bald has ever won an election against a leader who had hair. Its true, but what does it tell us?
This discussion has been closed.