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The LAB peer and former cabinet minister, Andrew Adonis, has a fascinating essay in the latest edition of Prospect on the best guide to election forecasting. His conclusion is encapsulated in the headline above – the party with the leader perceived to be best wins and nothing else matters.

Read the full story here

Scrapheap_as_was

Blowers, English and spurs win first.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Blowers, English and spurs win first.

No discussions about football allowed on PB until Liverpool win again, unless we're talking about West Ham's Dildo Brothers.

Morris_Dancer

Been a fair few coronations lately (May, Brown, Howard). I do wonder if this is worth running, though.

Could have a couple of PB mass brainstorms. Rate potential leaders on various categories relevant to the PCP's approval. Then take the top two and see how they'd appeal to the grassroots.

dr_spyn

So who is the exception to the rule?

Richard_Tyndall

Great hearing Henry Blofeld on his lap of honour at Lords. Genuine affection for a great of feller.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, surely the Brothers Dildo?

Mr. Tyndall, not a cricketist myself, but I imagine it's similar to when Murray Walker stopped commentating on F1. Top chap he is.

Charles

FPT

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

She can be very good - I usually read her articles. This one missed the mark.

Maybe you prefer this one?

Tuesday
Up to London, where one appears to be the flavour of the month.

Yes! I, Jacob Rees-Mogg, proud alumnus of Eton, owner of a cat called Pat and famed inventor of the quadruple-breasted suit, am suddenly tipped for high office. And so, today, one has a clandestine briefing with two influential backbenchers on the right to discuss a future leadership challenge.

“This is serious,” says one of the MPs. “You could be the next Boris.”

“It actually doesn’t sound very serious,” says the other one, “when you put it like that.”

“Or the next Andrea Leadsom,” says the first.

“I haven’t thought this through,” says the second, and leaves.


https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/906421178516066304

The difference is that Hugo Rifkind is mocking Rees-Mogg not attacking him on personal grounds.

And his article (that bit anyway) is actually funny

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

Great hearing Henry Blofeld on his lap of honour at Lords. Genuine affection for a great of feller.

Immensely moving.

Philip_Thompson

Morris_Dancer said:

Been a fair few coronations lately (May, Brown, Howard). I do wonder if this is worth running, though.

Could have a couple of PB mass brainstorms. Rate potential leaders on various categories relevant to the PCP's approval. Then take the top two and see how they'd appeal to the grassroots.

I wouldn't call May's a coronation. Sure her final opponent pulled out before the final ballot but every round of the MPs ballots were contested.

Sandpit

Richard_Tyndall said:

Great hearing Henry Blofeld on his lap of honour at Lords. Genuine affection for a great of feller.

Indeed, the last of the great sporting commentators hangs up his microphone for the final time.

HYUFD

Yes and the only exception I can think of was 1970 when Wilson tied Heath on Leadership in the Adonis table but Heath won the general election. Though of course we must not forget that Wilson still beat Heath in the 1966 general election and twice on seats in 1974 so even then overall the trend still held

If this trend holds that must concern Labour, if Corbyn could not win in June 2017 despite a hapless Tory campaign why should he win next time? If Labour had a more centrist charismatic leader they could probably be more confident

Philip_Thompson

2000 is an exception as Gore beats Bush on the table but Bush won.

Yes Gore did win the popular vote but so too even more emphatically did Hillary in 2016 so that would be an exception if that's how you work it out.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

2000 is an exception as Gore beats Bush on the table but Bush won.

Yes Gore did win the popular vote but so too even more emphatically did Hillary in 2016 so that would be an exception if that's how you work it out.

Adonis does have Bush's victories in 2000 and 2004 as exceptions in the USA but although he has Gore ahead and Kerry tied on leadership Bush Jnr was clearly more charismatic than both and generally charisma edges it especially if it is close on leadership and policy

The same goes for Hillary v Trump and JFK v Nixon which he had tied on leadership

Pong

Interesting read from Mr Adonis.

That's about the only positive thing I can say.

My main problem is that I don't believe he would have awarded the same points to each candidate before each election, that he's awarded to them in hindsight.

"The one charge I obviously cannot counter is the bias of hindsight. But I am confident enough in my theory to suggest it as a good guide to future election results, where one of the candidates is clearly the better leader."

Yes Mr Adonis, you've written an article all about hindsight bias.

Not impressive.

We can all make up a theory and then make the data fit the theory.

NickPalmer

Pong said:

Interesting read from Mr Adonis.

That's about the only positive thing I can say.

My main problem is that I don't believe he would have awarded the same points to each candidate before each election, that he's awarded to them in hindsight.

"The one charge I obviously cannot counter is the bias of hindsight. But I am confident enough in my theory to suggest it as a good guide to future election results, where one of the candidates is clearly the better leader."

Yes Mr Adonis, you've written an article all about hindsight bias.

Not impressive.

We can all make up a theory and then make the data fit the theory.

Yes, I tend to agree, although it's an interesting experiment. Clearly leaders are very important for floating voters, but I'm very suspicious of his ability to assign values to past leaders without being influenced by his knowledge of what happened. For example, he was a big Corbyn sceptic and I doubt if he'd have rated him and May as equally in tune with the times if he'd made the assessment before the result.

Philip_Thompson

The way scores for leaders like Attlee jump up or down to make the numbers fit the result clearly shows hindsight bias.

Sandpit

While the general point about the importance of leader ratings does hold, Lord Adonis is assigning subjective values to them with the benefit of hindsight and I’m not sure what this adds to the debate.

There’s also a significant difference between US Presidential and UK Parliamentary elections, the former being a direct national election of a single person rather than a local representative in a Parliament. How many people in the US looked at the personalities of Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan when voting for their Representatives last time out?

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

The way scores for leaders like Attlee jump up or down to make the numbers fit the result clearly shows hindsight bias.

It just goes to show how good election results are at predicting how we will view leaders' ratings.

HYUFD

Sandpit said:

While the general point about the importance of leader ratings does hold, Lord Adonis is assigning subjective values to them with the benefit of hindsight and I’m not sure what this adds to the debate.

There’s also a significant difference between US Presidential and UK Parliamentary elections, the former being a direct national election of a single person rather than a local representative in a Parliament. How many people in the US looked at the personalities of Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan when voting for their Representatives last time out?

Very few, then you tend to vote for the party not the person much like French Assembly elections. Then again in the US Congressional elections tend to be used as a midterm protest vote against the incumbent in the Oval Office much as UK council elections are often a midterm protest vote against the incumbent in No 10, although of course the US Congress has rather more power than a UK council which is more the equivalent of a US state legislature at most rather than the Congress which is the equivalent of the UK Parliament.

Pong

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The way scores for leaders like Attlee jump up or down to make the numbers fit the result clearly shows hindsight bias.

It just goes to show how good election results are at predicting how we will view leaders' ratings.

lol

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

The way scores for leaders like Attlee jump up or down to make the numbers fit the result clearly shows hindsight bias.

Churchill probably had the edge on leadership and charisma then so 1945 and 1950 were the other exceptions beyond Heath v Wilson 1970 in UK terms but again Churchill did beat Attlee in 1951

david_herdson

Philip_Thompson said:

The way scores for leaders like Attlee jump up or down to make the numbers fit the result clearly shows hindsight bias.

Yes. That's the big risk with subjective scoring like this. Ideally, you'd plot the ratings against polling - though you'd need both a consistent question and reliable methodology.

That said, ratings can and should change. Attlee, for example, certainly captured the spirit of the times in 1945 but that moment passed quite quickly and by 1951, the cry for government command and control had been superseded by calls for an end to rationing and a new liberty (though also more effective command-and-control: house-building, for example). Churchill, however, doesn't merit a consistent 9 for intrinsic ability. In 1945, perhaps (though the test would have been to run a peacetime reconstruction government, rather than an assessment of his wartime leadership); by 1951, he was well past it and fortunate he had a strong and largely united cabinet to deputise to.

HYUFD

While Corbyn was in Brexit central Mansfield today Cable was on the pro EU march which could help the LDs a little with Remain diehards
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/in-pictures-sir-vince-cable-joins-anti-brexit-protest-march/

david_herdson

Philip_Thompson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Been a fair few coronations lately (May, Brown, Howard). I do wonder if this is worth running, though.

Could have a couple of PB mass brainstorms. Rate potential leaders on various categories relevant to the PCP's approval. Then take the top two and see how they'd appeal to the grassroots.

I wouldn't call May's a coronation. Sure her final opponent pulled out before the final ballot but every round of the MPs ballots were contested.

Indeed. This seems to be a meme that won't die. May effectively won the leadership according to more-or-less the same process as all Tory leaders from 1965-1997, and all Labour leaders from the 1920s through to 1980.

david_herdson

Data security in financial institutions isn't a sexy news story, unlike hurricanes. It is, however, the bigger one. This is absolutely outrageous and Equifax should lose their financial licence in the UK over it.

http://news.sky.com/story/equifax-hack-britons-among-143-million-people-to-have-their-details-compromised-11024994

The worst bits:

"The attack was discovered to have run from mid-May until 29 July, but the US company has taken 40 days to inform customers that their personal details were compromised.

Three senior executives at the company - which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange - sold shares worth almost $1.8m before the breach was publicly disclosed."

HYUFD

david_herdson said:

Data security in financial institutions isn't a sexy news story, unlike hurricanes. It is, however, the bigger one. This is absolutely outrageous and Equifax should lose their financial licence in the UK over it.

http://news.sky.com/story/equifax-hack-britons-among-143-million-people-to-have-their-details-compromised-11024994

The worst bits:

"The attack was discovered to have run from mid-May until 29 July, but the US company has taken 40 days to inform customers that their personal details were compromised.

Three senior executives at the company - which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange - sold shares worth almost $1.8m before the breach was publicly disclosed."

I expect the ICO will also be investigating

Sandpit

david_herdson said:

Data security in financial institutions isn't a sexy news story, unlike hurricanes. It is, however, the bigger one. This is absolutely outrageous and Equifax should lose their financial licence in the UK over it.

http://news.sky.com/story/equifax-hack-britons-among-143-million-people-to-have-their-details-compromised-11024994

The worst bits:

"The attack was discovered to have run from mid-May until 29 July, but the US company has taken 40 days to inform customers that their personal details were compromised.

Three senior executives at the company - which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange - sold shares worth almost $1.8m before the breach was publicly disclosed."

Yep, the FCA need to hit them very hard indeed, as I’m sure will the US regulators. It’s the biggest leak of personal data in history, from a company whose business is data and that the public have no choice about using.

If directors sold shares between the discovery and announcement of the leak, that’s about as clear cut example of insider trading as it’s possible to get. They’ll have to have a bloody good excuse not to end up in the big house.

rural_voter

Sandpit said:

david_herdson said:

Data security in financial institutions isn't a sexy news story, unlike hurricanes. It is, however, the bigger one. This is absolutely outrageous and Equifax should lose their financial licence in the UK over it.

http://news.sky.com/story/equifax-hack-britons-among-143-million-people-to-have-their-details-compromised-11024994

The worst bits:

"The attack was discovered to have run from mid-May until 29 July, but the US company has taken 40 days to inform customers that their personal details were compromised.

Three senior executives at the company - which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange - sold shares worth almost $1.8m before the breach was publicly disclosed."

Yep, the FCA need to hit them very hard indeed, as I’m sure will the US regulators. It’s the biggest leak of personal data in history, from a company whose business is data and that the public have no choice about using.

If directors sold shares between the discovery and announcement of the leak, that’s about as clear cut example of insider trading as it’s possible to get. They’ll have to have a bloody good excuse not to end up in the big house.

I think it's level pegging with Ebay. It lost the personal data of about 140 million people, including mine, a few years ago. 2014, I think. Little more has been heard about it. However, one tends to assume that a financial institution will look after personal data better than an online auctioneer will.

Stereotomy

Do we know the technical story behind the data breach? I've yet to see a single one of these stories where the cause wasn't a spectacular level of incompetence and carelessness in their IT. For all the sci-fi stories that journalists like to publish about "cybersecurity", the real story is almost always a company culture of not giving the smallest modicum of a damn

SouthamObserver

The general thesis is probably right. The retrospective rankings are absurd.

AlastairMeeks

The idea is good but we need to work off less impressionistic metrics. I'm sure something can be devised.

OldKingCole

I suspect that 1945 was a ‘different’ election. There had, I’m told..... I’m not that old......been a lot of talk to Servicemen but such people as a the Army Education Branch, about some sort of Brave New World, and, remember a lot of them were scarred, or their parents were scarred, by memories of the Depression. That wasn’t a universal experience, of course, but enough people had had bad experiences tom lkead them to belive that things would be different ‘After the War”
Othewrwise I suggest the contention holds firm.

Philip_Thompson

rural_voter said:

Sandpit said:

david_herdson said:

Data security in financial institutions isn't a sexy news story, unlike hurricanes. It is, however, the bigger one. This is absolutely outrageous and Equifax should lose their financial licence in the UK over it.

http://news.sky.com/story/equifax-hack-britons-among-143-million-people-to-have-their-details-compromised-11024994

The worst bits:

"The attack was discovered to have run from mid-May until 29 July, but the US company has taken 40 days to inform customers that their personal details were compromised.

Three senior executives at the company - which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange - sold shares worth almost $1.8m before the breach was publicly disclosed."

Yep, the FCA need to hit them very hard indeed, as I’m sure will the US regulators. It’s the biggest leak of personal data in history, from a company whose business is data and that the public have no choice about using.

If directors sold shares between the discovery and announcement of the leak, that’s about as clear cut example of insider trading as it’s possible to get. They’ll have to have a bloody good excuse not to end up in the big house.

I think it's level pegging with Ebay. It lost the personal data of about 140 million people, including mine, a few years ago. 2014, I think. Little more has been heard about it. However, one tends to assume that a financial institution will look after personal data better than an online auctioneer will.

I don't recall eBay hiding the breach while the executives sold their shares before announcing the breach. A breach is bad and should be a hefty fine but someone should be in jail for that.

Richard_Nabavi

May I gently suggest that people don't post that the Equifax directors committed a serious criminal offence?

Sean_F

OldKingCole said:

I suspect that 1945 was a ‘different’ election. There had, I’m told..... I’m not that old......been a lot of talk to Servicemen but such people as a the Army Education Branch, about some sort of Brave New World, and, remember a lot of them were scarred, or their parents were scarred, by memories of the Depression. That wasn’t a universal experience, of course, but enough people had had bad experiences tom lkead them to belive that things would be different ‘After the War”
Othewrwise I suggest the contention holds firm.

Socialism seemed plausible. People had seen the State feed, clothe, house, and evacuate people, and plan the production of munitions, and the successful invasion of Europe. It seemed logical to assume that the State could successfully run the economy in peacetime.

SouthamObserver

OldKingCole said:

I suspect that 1945 was a ‘different’ election. There had, I’m told..... I’m not that old......been a lot of talk to Servicemen but such people as a the Army Education Branch, about some sort of Brave New World, and, remember a lot of them were scarred, or their parents were scarred, by memories of the Depression. That wasn’t a universal experience, of course, but enough people had had bad experiences tom lkead them to belive that things would be different ‘After the War”
Othewrwise I suggest the contention holds firm.

I am not an expert, but from afar 1939-1945 looks like the most egalitarian period in modern British history. Maybe it's the closest to genuine socialism the UK will ever get. The war was won on the back of Marx's famous principle: "Each according to his ability, to each according to his need." It's only a guess, but I am pretty sure that this had a huge impact on the way in which people viewed the future and it must have helped Labour no end.

Cyclefree

Richard_Nabavi said:

May I gently suggest that people don't post that the Equifax directors committed a serious criminal offence?

Or at least not without the words "may have" and "allegedly".

It all depends on what information they knew, when they knew it, whether it was "inside information" at that time, what the reasons for the sale were, what legal advice was obtained etc etc.

I'd love to do that investigation.

I will be available in a month or so at reassuringly expensive rates. Quality needs to be paid for.

Sandpit

Stereotomy said:

Do we know the technical story behind the data breach? I've yet to see a single one of these stories where the cause wasn't a spectacular level of incompetence and carelessness in their IT. For all the sci-fi stories that journalists like to publish about "cybersecurity", the real story is almost always a company culture of not giving the smallest modicum of a damn

The full details haven’t emerged yet, but you’re completely right that too many companies, large and small, see IT only as a cost. They neither consider the opportunities which arise from getting it right, nor the risks of getting it wrong.

When your company’s entire business is data, I’d expect to see a team of people who do nothing except looking through database and firewall logs in real time, looking for anomalies that could be unauthorised activity. The cost of doing this stuff properly is a rounding error compared to the cost of a data breach.

The ‘good’ thing about this breach is there won’t be any sweeping under the carpet - in a regulated industry the full details will come out and everyone else will be able to learn from what happened. Those involved here though, they’re in a whole world of trouble.

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

OldKingCole said:

I suspect that 1945 was a ‘different’ election. There had, I’m told..... I’m not that old......been a lot of talk to Servicemen but such people as a the Army Education Branch, about some sort of Brave New World, and, remember a lot of them were scarred, or their parents were scarred, by memories of the Depression. That wasn’t a universal experience, of course, but enough people had had bad experiences tom lkead them to belive that things would be different ‘After the War”
Othewrwise I suggest the contention holds firm.

I am not an expert, but from afar 1939-1945 looks like the most egalitarian period in modern British history. Maybe it's the closest to genuine socialism the UK will ever get. The war was won on the back of Marx's famous principle: "Each according to his ability, to each according to his need." It's only a guess, but I am pretty sure that this had a huge impact on the way in which people viewed the future and it must have helped Labour no end.

Heavily militarised societies require a great deal of central planning, and they need to ensure that the workers and soldiers are well cared for, and the costs have to be borne either by way of high taxation, or by the spoils of war.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/RagnarL171/status/906575099461074944

Richard_Nabavi

I had better disclose that two years ago I danced round in circles holding the hand of Lord Adonis at a bat mitzvah.

Sandpit

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/RagnarL171/status/906575099461074944

LOL, there’s only a couple of hundred people there! The way the organisers were going on about it, they clearly expected a bigger crowd than were at Lord’s today.

Maybe it will slowly dawn on them that trying to overturn the democratic biggest vote for anything in British history is going to be a complete non-starter.

JosiasJessop

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

Ishmael_Z

As his Lordship had his insight "a decade ago" it is a crying shame that he has missed out on six golden opportunities (3 UK, 3 US) to put it to a prospective test by sealing his predictions in an envelope and putting the envelope in a safe. As things are, I simply don't believe it is possible to banish from ones mind circumstantial considerations when assessing "character." Pre 7 June Corbyn looked like an idiot who sat on train floors and whose MPs all hated him, and Mrs May looked strong and stable. Today Corbyn looks like a political rock star, while Mrs May looks like, well, Mrs May. And that's on the basis of a national vote swayed by ideas - admittedly very bad ideas like dementia taxes and abolishing university fees, but still ideas. Does anyone seriously believe that had Corbyn made it over the line 1 inch ahead of May his Ldship would have come clean and said "My god, my model has been tested to destruction because May was a 5 and Corbyn a 4"? I don't.

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/RagnarL171/status/906575099461074944

Still pushing the Democrats I see as the LDs are too weak to do the job, he is scathing about Corbyn, saying he is just as committed to a hard Brexit as May but has some praise for Ed Davey, Chuka Umunna and Rachel Reeves

SouthamObserver

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

OldKingCole said:

I suspect that 1945 was a ‘different’ election. There had, I’m told..... I’m not that old......been a lot of talk to Servicemen but such people as a the Army Education Branch, about some sort of Brave New World, and, remember a lot of them were scarred, or their parents were scarred, by memories of the Depression. That wasn’t a universal experience, of course, but enough people had had bad experiences tom lkead them to belive that things would be different ‘After the War”
Othewrwise I suggest the contention holds firm.

I am not an expert, but from afar 1939-1945 looks like the most egalitarian period in modern British history. Maybe it's the closest to genuine socialism the UK will ever get. The war was won on the back of Marx's famous principle: "Each according to his ability, to each according to his need." It's only a guess, but I am pretty sure that this had a huge impact on the way in which people viewed the future and it must have helped Labour no end.

Heavily militarised societies require a great deal of central planning, and they need to ensure that the workers and soldiers are well cared for, and the costs have to be borne either by way of high taxation, or by the spoils of war.

Yep, makes sense. At the time, though, I doubt people saw it that way.

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

OldKingCole said:

I suspect that 1945 was a ‘different’ election. There had, I’m told..... I’m not that old......been a lot of talk to Servicemen but such people as a the Army Education Branch, about some sort of Brave New World, and, remember a lot of them were scarred, or their parents were scarred, by memories of the Depression. That wasn’t a universal experience, of course, but enough people had had bad experiences tom lkead them to belive that things would be different ‘After the War”
Othewrwise I suggest the contention holds firm.

I am not an expert, but from afar 1939-1945 looks like the most egalitarian period in modern British history. Maybe it's the closest to genuine socialism the UK will ever get. The war was won on the back of Marx's famous principle: "Each according to his ability, to each according to his need." It's only a guess, but I am pretty sure that this had a huge impact on the way in which people viewed the future and it must have helped Labour no end.

Heavily militarised societies require a great deal of central planning, and they need to ensure that the workers and soldiers are well cared for, and the costs have to be borne either by way of high taxation, or by the spoils of war.

Yep, makes sense. At the time, though, I doubt people saw it that way.

Attlee did. He saw Sparta as an ideal to be emulated.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, 'hapless' is a controversially polite way to describe the unending litany of woe and idiocy that was the Conservative campaign.

Mr. Nabavi, who amongst us has not danced with a Labour peer and former Transport minister?

Mr. F, *raises eyebrow*

Impossible. Sparta was destroyed by an excess of money. That's never been a problem Labour has inflicted on the nation.

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/RagnarL171/status/906575099461074944

Still pushing the Democrats I see as the LDs are too weak to do the job, he is scathing about Corbyn, saying he is just as committed to a hard Brexit as May but has some praise for Ed Davey, Chuka Umunna and Rachel Reeves

Rachel Reeves? Where?

Sandpit

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

May I gently suggest that people don't post that the Equifax directors committed a serious criminal offence?

Or at least not without the words "may have" and "allegedly".

It all depends on what information they knew, when they knew it, whether it was "inside information" at that time, what the reasons for the sale were, what legal advice was obtained etc etc.

I'd love to do that investigation.

I will be available in a month or so at reassuringly expensive rates. Quality needs to be paid for.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/three-equifax-executives-sold-stock-before-revealing-cyber-hack

Bloomberg report that the shares were sold three days after the hack was discovered by the company, and before it was announced officially.

Equifax have now said to the stock market that the three executives (including the CFO and the “President of Information Solutions”) knew nothing of the leak at the time the shares were sold. The SEC are, unsurprisingly, investigating.

Charles

JosiasJessop said:

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

Declaration of interest: Mylan paid me a lot of money to help them buy Epipen from E Merck Darmstadt.

Charles

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/RagnarL171/status/906575099461074944

Still pushing the Democrats I see as the LDs are too weak to do the job, he is scathing about Corbyn, saying he is just as committed to a hard Brexit as May but has some praise for Ed Davey, Chuka Umunna and Rachel Reeves

"I'm sorry they were too scared to come here today and tell us what they really think" doesn't really sound like "some praise" to me!

JosiasJessop

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

Declaration of interest: Mylan paid me a lot of money to help them buy Epipen from E Merck Darmstadt.

And your point is?

View_From_Cumbria

OldKingCole said:

I suspect that 1945 was a ‘different’ election. There had, I’m told..... I’m not that old......been a lot of talk to Servicemen but such people as a the Army Education Branch, about some sort of Brave New World, and, remember a lot of them were scarred, or their parents were scarred, by memories of the Depression. That wasn’t a universal experience, of course, but enough people had had bad experiences tom lkead them to belive that things would be different ‘After the War”
Othewrwise I suggest the contention holds firm.

I'm sure that right. And I think probably up there with 2017 for divergence of expectation from result. And probably for similar reasons.

The right proposes some sort of freedom but what exactly does that freedom give ?

I am saying this inelegantly because the idea isn't totally formed in my own mind. But from my own experience people will vote for things they want, or think the want. Then they either get them or they don't. If they don't get them then they want them all the more - that is why people vote more and more towards change.

BUT if they do get them, then they forget almost right away that they every wanted them. That is a contributing reason to the apparent ungratefulness of the electorate.

Only as an example, but a topical one, at least some people thought they wanted Brexit - me included. Absolutely, I dont agree with Alistair W et al that they will ever regret voting for Brexit. But my analysis above suggests that whatever the outcome, they will soon completely forget they ever wanted Brexit and ultimately the rewards for either side will be extremely meagre.

This section of "the people" wanted soft socialism in 1945, perhaps ever hardish socialism. They didn't fall out with it much when they saw the reality - they just forgot.

Stereotomy

Sandpit said:

Stereotomy said:

Do we know the technical story behind the data breach? I've yet to see a single one of these stories where the cause wasn't a spectacular level of incompetence and carelessness in their IT. For all the sci-fi stories that journalists like to publish about "cybersecurity", the real story is almost always a company culture of not giving the smallest modicum of a damn

The full details haven’t emerged yet, but you’re completely right that too many companies, large and small, see IT only as a cost. They neither consider the opportunities which arise from getting it right, nor the risks of getting it wrong.

When your company’s entire business is data, I’d expect to see a team of people who do nothing except looking through database and firewall logs in real time, looking for anomalies that could be unauthorised activity. The cost of doing this stuff properly is a rounding error compared to the cost of a data breach.

The ‘good’ thing about this breach is there won’t be any sweeping under the carpet - in a regulated industry the full details will come out and everyone else will be able to learn from what happened. Those involved here though, they’re in a whole world of trouble.

For now I'd be happy to forget anything so proactive and see companies do the bare minimum: stay patched, salt and hash passwords properly, don't paste untrusted data into SQL queries, etc. This breach may be an exception, but the vast majority would be averted just with those simple steps

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, 'hapless' is a controversially polite way to describe the unending litany of woe and idiocy that was the Conservative campaign.

Mr. Nabavi, who amongst us has not danced with a Labour peer and former Transport minister?

Mr. F, *raises eyebrow*

Impossible. Sparta was destroyed by an excess of money. That's never been a problem Labour has inflicted on the nation.

Attlee was steeped in the classics. He admired the Sparta that fought Persia, not its decadent counterpart in the next century.

Theuniondivvie

Ffs, this has Foxy's inept little fingers all over it.

https://twitter.com/tradegovuk/status/906581383065341953

Morris_Dancer

Mr. F, not sure helots are consistent with the apparent virtues of socialism. If anything, Sparta showed that its system couldn't handle success beyond a certain limit. The basic three-piece approach is quite stable and good but surely if Attlee really believed in it he would've strengthened the House of Lords and increased the actual day-to-day power of the monarch.

Still, Lycurgus' comment on democracy ["Try it with your family first" or words to that effect] is wryly amusing.

Edited extra bit: eyes going fuzzy, so I'm off. Last Night of the Proms tonight, for those interested. And those not, of course.

stevef

I am not convinced. In 1945 Churchill was perceived to be the best leader and lost. In 1970, Wilson was perceived to be the best leader and Heath won. Wilson was miles ahead of Home in 1964 and only won by a whisker. Callaghan was consistently ahead of Thatcher as best PM in 1979 but Thatcher won. May was way ahead of Corbyn in 2017 but lost her majority. 5 cases where this rule does not apply.

HYUFD

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/RagnarL171/status/906575099461074944

Still pushing the Democrats I see as the LDs are too weak to do the job, he is scathing about Corbyn, saying he is just as committed to a hard Brexit as May but has some praise for Ed Davey, Chuka Umunna and Rachel Reeves

"I'm sorry they were too scared to come here today and tell us what they really think" doesn't really sound like "some praise" to me!

He also called them 'good decent MPs' and if he is going to get anyone to form his 'Democrats' party it would be them, but I doubt they will ever leave their respective parties.

Umunna for one still has clear ambitions to lead Labour and become PM

williamglenn

Theuniondivvie said:

Ffs, this has Foxy's inept little fingers all over it.

Who needs AI and digitisation when you've got Nicky Clarke?

HYUFD

stevef said:

I am not convinced. In 1945 Churchill was perceived to be the best leader and lost. In 1970, Wilson was perceived to be the best leader and Heath won. Wilson was miles ahead of Home in 1964 and only won by a whisker. Callaghan was consistently ahead of Thatcher as best PM in 1979 but Thatcher won. May was way ahead of Corbyn in 2017 but lost her majority. 5 cases where this rule does not apply.

It is not an absolute rule granted but 15/20 post war general elections is still a reasonable predictor

Sandpit

Stereotomy said:

Sandpit said:

Stereotomy said:

Do we know the technical story behind the data breach? I've yet to see a single one of these stories where the cause wasn't a spectacular level of incompetence and carelessness in their IT. For all the sci-fi stories that journalists like to publish about "cybersecurity", the real story is almost always a company culture of not giving the smallest modicum of a damn

The full details haven’t emerged yet, but you’re completely right that too many companies, large and small, see IT only as a cost. They neither consider the opportunities which arise from getting it right, nor the risks of getting it wrong.

When your company’s entire business is data, I’d expect to see a team of people who do nothing except looking through database and firewall logs in real time, looking for anomalies that could be unauthorised activity. The cost of doing this stuff properly is a rounding error compared to the cost of a data breach.

The ‘good’ thing about this breach is there won’t be any sweeping under the carpet - in a regulated industry the full details will come out and everyone else will be able to learn from what happened. Those involved here though, they’re in a whole world of trouble.

For now I'd be happy to forget anything so proactive and see companies do the bare minimum: stay patched, salt and hash passwords properly, don't paste untrusted data into SQL queries, etc. This breach may be an exception, but the vast majority would be averted just with those simple steps

Indeed so, but it’s always easier and cheaper to forget about security in favour of speed, start with full access and dial it down, rather than starting with none and dialling it up, to fail to anonymise datasets for testing or allow unnessary access to prod systems, setting up blacklists rather than white lists of open ports on servers and firewalls etc etc.

I can’t complain too much though, every big story like this leads to more businesses thinking about security and hiring IT consultants - like me!

Ishmael_Z

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

bigjohnowls

Pong said:

Interesting read from Mr Adonis.

That's about the only positive thing I can say.

My main problem is that I don't believe he would have awarded the same points to each candidate before each election, that he's awarded to them in hindsight.

"The one charge I obviously cannot counter is the bias of hindsight. But I am confident enough in my theory to suggest it as a good guide to future election results, where one of the candidates is clearly the better leader."

Yes Mr Adonis, you've written an article all about hindsight bias.

Not impressive.

We can all make up a theory and then make the data fit the theory.

Indeed what a load of Bollox from Adonis

Charles

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

Declaration of interest: Mylan paid me a lot of money to help them buy Epipen from E Merck Darmstadt.

And your point is?

Because you are being unfair to Mylan but it's important to be transparent that I like Heather.

HYUFD

Ishmael_Z said:

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

Unless it was 18 million which it clearly was not it doesn't really matter does it?

TwistedFireStopper

Ishmael_Z said:

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

I haven't seen any TV news pictures, but BBC 5Live News said "thousands" as I was driving home from work tonight.

JosiasJessop

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

Declaration of interest: Mylan paid me a lot of money to help them buy Epipen from E Merck Darmstadt.

And your point is?

Because you are being unfair to Mylan but it's important to be transparent that I like Heather.

I have quoted sources. In what way am I being 'unfair' ?

Sandpit

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

Unless it was 18 million which it clearly was not it doesn't really matter does it?

I wonder how much effort these protestors are putting in today, compared to the amount of effort they put in *before* the referendum vote - when it actually mattered?

Ishmael_Z

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

Unless it was 18 million which it clearly was not it doesn't really matter does it?

It does for comedy purposes. For instance if numbers were seriously less than forecast, I am sure Monday's Standard will feature a devastating cartoon deriding the organizers.

HYUFD

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

Unless it was 18 million which it clearly was not it doesn't really matter does it?

I wonder how much effort these protestors are putting in today, compared to the amount of effort they put in *before* the referendum vote - when it actually mattered?

Yes I doubt all of them were leafletting, canvassing or manning street stalls last year

HYUFD

Ishmael_Z said:

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

Unless it was 18 million which it clearly was not it doesn't really matter does it?

It does for comedy purposes. For instance if numbers were seriously less than forecast, I am sure Monday's Standard will feature a devastating cartoon deriding the organizers.

More likely it will turn it into an act of defiance against May.

So far it not only looks to be miles below the million who marched against the Iraq War in 2003 but even well below the 400,000 who marched for fox hunting in 2002

Sean_F

TwistedFireStopper said:

Ishmael_Z said:

"People's March for EU: Tens of thousands of anti-Brexit activists march to Parliament in rally to keep UK in union" Evening Standard

"Calls for unity as thousands attend anti-Brexit rally in London" Guardian

"People’s March For Europe: Hundreds Attend Anti-Brexit Protest In London" HuffPo

Inneressing to see who is right.

I haven't seen any TV news pictures, but BBC 5Live News said "thousands" as I was driving home from work tonight.

From looking at YouTube, I'd guess 5-6,000, not disgraceful, but nothing special.

surbiton

bigjohnowls said:

Pong said:

Interesting read from Mr Adonis.

That's about the only positive thing I can say.

My main problem is that I don't believe he would have awarded the same points to each candidate before each election, that he's awarded to them in hindsight.

"The one charge I obviously cannot counter is the bias of hindsight. But I am confident enough in my theory to suggest it as a good guide to future election results, where one of the candidates is clearly the better leader."

Yes Mr Adonis, you've written an article all about hindsight bias.

Not impressive.

We can all make up a theory and then make the data fit the theory.

Indeed what a load of Bollox from Adonis

I have a 100% success theory of predicting the winner after the election.

MP_SE2

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/906509001449525248

foxinsoxuk

JosiasJessop said:

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

That is the sort of profiteering that gives pharma a bad name. There was no innovation that produced this price rise. It also shows what a bargain that we get in the UK. A 2 epipen pack here is less than £50 with a private prescription. Quality control sounds iffy too.

stevef

So given that this has been true 15 out of 20 times since 1945 in the UK what does this mean for the next election in Britain? Because Corbyn still trails behind in the leadership stakes, even against the hapless Theresa May.

Alanbrooke

SeanT said:

Another slooooow night on pb, so here's a suitably boring but thread-relevant anecdote.

I had drinks with an old pal the other day, an ex photographer turned small time rentier. He's become seriously rightwing over the years, in the usual way: voted Brexit, wants the burqa banned, likes low taxes, has flirted with UKIP but generally votes Tory or abstains out of boredom.

I haven't seen him in ages, so I asked him how he voted in June - he astonished me by saying he voted for Corbyn. Mainly because he absolutely detests Theresa May, he thinks she's a liar, and a boring, graceless liar at that; he also finds her persona awkward, creepy and deeply irritating. He thought Corbyn was at least "genial".

Leaders do matter, and TMay is, electorally, a walking disaster. The Tories MUST dump her once Brexit is delivered in 2019.

anecdote but - just had some deliciously wet sex in the kitchen

now Im going to open a bottle of wine and watch the proms

theres more to life than Brexit

RobD

MP_SE2 said:

twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/906509001449525248

And wasn't the Dunkirk spirit a fight against nationalism?

MarkHopkins

SeanT said:

Another slooooow night on pb, so here's a suitably boring but thread-relevant anecdote.

I had drinks with an old pal the other day, an ex photographer turned small time rentier. He's become seriously rightwing over the years, in the usual way: voted Brexit, wants the burqa banned, likes low taxes, has flirted with UKIP but generally votes Tory or abstains out of boredom.

I haven't seen him in ages, so I asked him how he voted in June - he astonished me by saying he voted for Corbyn. Mainly because he absolutely detests Theresa May, he thinks she's a liar, and a boring, graceless liar at that; he also finds her persona awkward, creepy and deeply irritating. He thought Corbyn was at least "genial".

Leaders do matter, and TMay is, electorally, a walking disaster. The Tories MUST dump her once Brexit is delivered in 2019.

Agreed. She can see Brexit through, then she must hang up her kitten heels.

I had great hopes for her when she took over, but now she just seems like the Gordon Brown of the Right.

That's unfair, she's better than that, but I hope she has enough humility to know what she has to do.

Ishmael_Z

MP_SE2 said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/906509001449525248

What a complete and utter chump. I hope that goes viral.

Charles

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

Declaration of interest: Mylan paid me a lot of money to help them buy Epipen from E Merck Darmstadt.

And your point is?

Because you are being unfair to Mylan but it's important to be transparent that I like Heather.

I have quoted sources. In what way am I being 'unfair' ?

As bad as equifax might be ... "it is no where near as bad as the stuff Mylan has been up to"

Certainly judgemental, and in my view unfair

Charles

foxinsoxuk said:

JosiasJessop said:

As bad as the Equifax 'hack' might be, it's nowhere near as bad as the stuff Mylan have been getting up to with Epipen. Firstly there were the massive price hikes, and then this:

"FDA slams EpiPen maker for doing nothing while hundreds failed, people died
In damning letter, agency says maker didn’t fix violations or recall bad batches."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/fda-slams-epipen-maker-for-doing-nothing-while-hundreds-failed-people-died/

"Mylan had maintained about a 90% market share since it had acquired the product, and had continually raised the price of EpiPens starting in 2009: in 2009, the wholesale price of two EpiPens was about $100; by July 2013, the price was about $265; in May 2015, it was around $461; and in May 2016, the price rose again to around $609,[25] around a 500% jump from the price in 2009.[75] The cost of the drug and device to Mylan as of 2016 was about $35"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epinephrine_autoinjector

That is the sort of profiteering that gives pharma a bad name. There was no innovation that produced this price rise. It also shows what a bargain that we get in the UK. A 2 epipen pack here is less than £50 with a private prescription. Quality control sounds iffy too.

Nah - that wasn't too extreme (although I don't like it). Look at Flynn or Amco right here in Blighty if you want to see the ugly side of pharma. So ugly that even the industry and people like me find it contemptible

HYUFD

SeanT said:

Another slooooow night on pb, so here's a suitably boring but thread-relevant anecdote.

I had drinks with an old pal the other day, an ex photographer turned small time rentier. He's become seriously rightwing over the years, in the usual way: voted Brexit, wants the burqa banned, likes low taxes, has flirted with UKIP but generally votes Tory or abstains out of boredom.

I haven't seen him in ages, so I asked him how he voted in June - he astonished me by saying he voted for Corbyn. Mainly because he absolutely detests Theresa May, he thinks she's a liar, and a boring, graceless liar at that; he also finds her persona awkward, creepy and deeply irritating. He thought Corbyn was at least "genial".

Leaders do matter, and TMay is, electorally, a walking disaster. The Tories MUST dump her once Brexit is delivered in 2019.

To be fair to her she did get a higher voteshare than any Tory leader since Major in 1992 but I agree she will go after 2019, I still think most likely replaced by Boris

HYUFD

stevef said:

So given that this has been true 15 out of 20 times since 1945 in the UK what does this mean for the next election in Britain? Because Corbyn still trails behind in the leadership stakes, even against the hapless Theresa May.

It means Corbyn's better than expected performance at the last general election may turn into a pyrrhic victory for Labour, instead of losing and getting someone who looks more like a leader and is a bit more centrist they may have given the Tories a 4th general election where they win most seats.

Much like putting Kinnock up again in 1992 after his loss in 1987 turned out to be a mistake Labour could be doing it again. On the other side of course Heath did win after losing his first general election in 1966 in 1970 but that does not hold much comfort for Labour either as he only lasted a term losing his re election bid in February 1974 and finally being put out of his misery by Wilson in October of that year

Sean_F

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

Sean_F

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Congratulations.

But, as they like to sing:-

"There's a Sean across the river,
With a bottom like a peach,
But the water level's rising,
And alas, I cannot swim."

Pong

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ

HYUFD

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Congratulations, Muscat's Grand Mosque has a rug which used to be the largest in the world apparently
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/oman

justin124

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

So given that this has been true 15 out of 20 times since 1945 in the UK what does this mean for the next election in Britain? Because Corbyn still trails behind in the leadership stakes, even against the hapless Theresa May.

It means Corbyn's better than expected performance at the last general election may turn into a pyrrhic victory for Labour, instead of losing and getting someone who looks more like a leader and is a bit more centrist they may have given the Tories a 4th general election where they win most seats.

Much like putting Kinnock up again in 1992 after his loss in 1987 turned out to be a mistake Labour could be doing it again. On the other side of course Heath did win after losing his first general election in 1966 in 1970 but that does not hold much comfort for Labour either as he only lasted a term losing his re election bid in February 1974 and finally being put out of his misery by Wilson in October of that year

Kinnock did win an additional 42 seats in 1992. Labour's potential to make substantial gains in Scotland next time might well mean that Corbyn performs a fair bit better than that.

geoffw

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Congratulations.

But, as they like to sing:-

"There's a Sean across the river,
With a bottom like a peach,
But the water level's rising,
And alas, I cannot swim."

"the most famous of Pathan songs, the 'Zakhmi Dil' ('Wounded Heart') begins with the words, 'There's a boy across the river with a bottom like a peach, but, alas, I cannot swim.' "

John Masters, Bugles and a Tiger, 1956
But just take a goat with you because, as Masters also notes:

" 'A woman for business, a boy for pleasure, a goat for choice' is an old Pathan proverb, . . "

Sunil_Prasannan

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Congratulations!

But all my railway trips are entirely self-funding

foxinsoxuk

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Congratulations. I liked Oman. It has a genial Ibadi sect majority, in sharp contrast with the Salafism elsewhere in the region. The people are rich enough to escape the poverty of much of MENA but without the opulent arrogant rich of Saudi or the Emirates. The landscape is stark but beautiful, and worth an exploration by 4×4. Camping under the stars in a Bedouin camp is a real highlight.

Get with the local culture and off alcohol as far as possible. Respect local mores and you will receive great hospitality.

geoffw

p.s. of course, that's Afghanistan, not Oman.

HYUFD

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Congratulations, Muscat's Grand Mosque has a rug which used to be the largest in the world apparently
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/oman

Shukran

Enjoy

justin124

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

The way scores for leaders like Attlee jump up or down to make the numbers fit the result clearly shows hindsight bias.

Churchill probably had the edge on leadership and charisma then so 1945 and 1950 were the other exceptions beyond Heath v Wilson 1970 in UK terms but again Churchill did beat Attlee in 1951

In 1951 Attlee won the popular vote - and were it not for the Ulster Unionists then taking the Tory whip the election result would have been a Hung Parliament.

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Who has taken the real seanT hostage? Do we need to ring the police?

More seriously, congratulations you old cad.

HYUFD

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

stevef said:

So given that this has been true 15 out of 20 times since 1945 in the UK what does this mean for the next election in Britain? Because Corbyn still trails behind in the leadership stakes, even against the hapless Theresa May.

It means Corbyn's better than expected performance at the last general election may turn into a pyrrhic victory for Labour, instead of losing and getting someone who looks more like a leader and is a bit more centrist they may have given the Tories a 4th general election where they win most seats.

Much like putting Kinnock up again in 1992 after his loss in 1987 turned out to be a mistake Labour could be doing it again. On the other side of course Heath did win after losing his first general election in 1966 in 1970 but that does not hold much comfort for Labour either as he only lasted a term losing his re election bid in February 1974 and finally being put out of his misery by Wilson in October of that year

Kinnock did win an additional 42 seats in 1992. Labour's potential to make substantial gains in Scotland next time might well mean that Corbyn performs a fair bit better than that.

Kinnock only won an additional 42 seats because the LD vote fell 4.8% from the 22.6% the SDP won in 1987 and almost all that went to Labour, the Tory vote was only down 0.3%, barely unchanged. The LD vote is now only 7% so Corbyn has effectively squeezed it as far as he can already

Labour gains from the SNP in Scotland of course make no difference to Tory prospects of forming a government or winning a majority as SNP MPs will back Labour anyway

Sean_F

geoffw said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

ON topic - I'm going to Oman tomorrow, with my good lady, has anyone else been? Any recommendations? It's totally new to me, I have no idea what to expect.

The Omanis lust after middle-aged White men. I'd be careful.

lol. Is that true??!!

I'm guessing you're joking.

Anyway I am safe from their ardours. This is something of a honeymoon (albeit a Times Travel piece for which I'm not paying).

Yes, I got married.

Congratulations.

But, as they like to sing:-

"There's a Sean across the river,
With a bottom like a peach,
But the water level's rising,
And alas, I cannot swim."

"the most famous of Pathan songs, the 'Zakhmi Dil' ('Wounded Heart') begins with the words, 'There's a boy across the river with a bottom like a peach, but, alas, I cannot swim.' "

John Masters, Bugles and a Tiger, 1956
But just take a goat with you because, as Masters also notes:

" 'A woman for business, a boy for pleasure, a goat for choice' is an old Pathan proverb, . . "

I can understand the first two, but what would gain from a goat?