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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Kim Jong-un makes Sir Michael Fallon Prime Minister
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Kim Jong-un makes Sir Michael Fallon Prime Minister
I’m not going to pretend I’m an expert on affairs on the Korean peninsula, my knowledge is pretty much based on Sir Max Hastings excellent book on The Korean War and what I have learned from the media. But if matters do escalate for a full blown (nuclear) war there then we will be seeing a lot more of Sir Michael Fallon as he will try to reassure the country in his role as Defence Secretary.
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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.125575094
It’s a wide open market though, someone has to be the next PM and there’s likely to be a vacancy around two years from now. If that timeline is correct, the next PM is most likely in a senior Cabinet position at the moment so that 50/1 bet is good value if you can find it. Fallon’s not listed on the Betfair market for some reason, nor on Oddschecker’s list.
Fallon is the sort of boring loyalist that the Tory inner circle likes, but the membership would not. He only wins if it is a coronation, and I don't think that possible.
May is going to have a reshuffle soon. Some of the cabinet will be asked to step down to make room for new talent. I think he may be one of those.
So who in the Cabinet is in the 45-58 range - Hunt, Gove, Javid, Rudd. Maybe these are the value bets?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/905556634751164416
"The public story from the Conservatives is that they underestimated Jeremy Corbyn - who managed to scam Brexit voters into backing a form of Leave, and Remain voters the opposite - and for good measure excite some exuberant young voters with promises of free cash. Meanwhile, many traditional older Tory voters were turned off by the manifesto fiasco.
Privately, however, there are a host of internal inquests. Former Cabinet minister Sir Eric Pickles has been placed in charge of a particularly important one. So far, only ex-MPs have publicly ruminated about the role of Theresa May's Brexit plan, the mandate for which was the expressly stated rationale for calling the snap election. The strategy of using Brexit to turn longstanding Labour voters and left-ish UKIP voters to the Conservatives failed in all but five seats. Even in some heavily Leave areas, Labour MPs, including ones who had actually voted against Article 50, held their seats, maintaining and even increasing their majorities. Leave voters did not define themselves by their Brexit stance, as the Tory campaign anticipated. Brexit was insufficient to shift many Labour voters long standing General Election affiliation.
But Theresa May's approach to Brexit did have an effect on the other side of the ledger. Across fertile Cameron-era territory such as the M4 corridor, all the way from London to Swansea - through Slough, Swindon, Bristol and Cardiff - there were 5-10% swings against the Conservatives in areas of high employment."
https://www.ft.com/content/f2f002de-9323-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0
Hence I expect the mooted reshuffle to be a disaster. she likes big decisions, and holds grudges. I think Hammond may be deposed, and cabinet packed with true believers.
It should make for an interesting conference.
Her judgement is awful, time and again she reads things badly wrong. And even worse, she has no empathy. Whatsoever.
This should be one of the easier issues to solve - though it will make a future free trade deal with the US even trickier to do.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article168398110/Gleich-zu-Beginn-richtet-Merkel-sich-an-die-wuetenden-Protestierer.html
It may not be controversial right now, but just you wait.
Whatever next!
She will have a pretty safe win.
The protection of geographical indications (GIs) is slated to be one of the more contentious parts of the TTIP negotiations. The EU is home to many well-known GIs that are used in the United States as common names for products, such as wines and cheeses. European negotiators see that as a problem to remedy through TTIP.
Both parties are major producers of these products, so the issue has real commercial significance. But it also touches on cultural and ideological differences between Old World and New World economies. It’s not simply a matter of deciding what is “feta” or “champagne” and who can use those words. Europe’s GI protection scheme is part of a much larger policy that seeks to preserve traditional production methods and ways of life in the face of globalization ...
The issue of GI protection engenders strong feelings and uncompromising rhetoric on both sides of the Atlantic. Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over matter of trade policy, condemns European GIs as trade barriers and vows that “for generations to come, we’re going to keep making gouda in Wisconsin. And feta, and cheddar and everything else.”1
At the same time, the EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström laments that Italian cheeses are being “undermined by inferior domestic imitations” in the United States and vowed to solve the problem through TTIP by “getting a strong agreement on geographical indications.”
https://www.cato.org/publications/cato-online-forum/geographical-indications-ttip-impossible-task
How old is Fallon?
It is worth remembering that the United States is not demanding that the European Union allow the sale of products labeled Kraft Parmesan Cheese or California Champagne in Europe.
When it comes to a trade deal with the USA, I’d have thought that a first phase approach dealing in sectors such as financial services and complex manufactured goods (cars, planes) would be relatively easy to implement. More complex areas such as Agriculture are going to be a lot more difficult, as we have such different approaches to the sector in the first place.
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44556.pdf
If we sign up tot he European regime - which is what protecting EU GIs by UK legislation would do - that would be very unpopular in the US.
He'll appeal to the Tory membership if he makes the final two.
I could be persuaded either way on them. If we can use GIs as a concession in the EU negotiations, why not?
The UK has called the EU's bluff on this, and flushed them out earlier than they wanted.
A win for the UK.
The difference is that the EU wants the USA to accept GI's. We can happily not demand that and be much closer to a deal than the EU was.
I've always disliked Fallon because all that he is - 'is a strong campaigner'.
This is an excellent, and fairly easy to read paper on the economics of Bitcoin (and crypto currencies in general):
http://www.columbia.edu/~jl4130/BTC.pdf
The blockchain design enables Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies to function similarly to conventional payment systems such as Fed Wire, Swift, Visa, and PayPal. These payment systems are natural monopolies in that they enjoy economies of scale and network effects. Each of them is operated by an organization that determines its rules and modifies them as circumstances change. These rules include how and how much participants pay for using the system. The governing organization ensures the system is trusted and is responsible for maintain the required infrastructure for the system. Payment systems are often regulated (or outright owned by government agencies) in order to mitigate the welfare loss associated with their monopolistic positions.
The innovation in Bitcoin’s blockchain design is in the absence of a governing organization. Rather, a protocol sets the system’s rules, by which all constituents abide. Absent is a central entity that maintains the infrastructure. Rather, Bitcoin’s infrastructure consists of computer servers (called “miners”) which enter and exit the system at will, responding to perceived profit opportunities.
Participants follow the protocol because it is in their best interest to do so, assuming the other participants follow the protocol. Thus, the protocol-derived rules are practically fixed and binding on all parties.
The blockchain design carries an economic innovation. Unlike other payment systems, Bitcoin is a two-sided platform with rules that are pre-specified by a computer protocol. No participant has power to set or modify fees or rules of conduct or otherwise control the system. Each participant in the market place, users and miners alike, is a price taker.…
The conclusions at the bottom are particularly interesting.
I don't think, in the context of Korea, that there is any such thing.
And any input the UK's armed forces might have is likely to be utterly minimal, and will serve only to underline our impotence in the matter, irrespective of any bellicose blustering by Fallon.
As far as his being PM is concerned, he'd conceivably be quite a bit worse than May.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41183041
For a German election this is bordering on the raucous, ohne Ordnung.
Merkel clearly has a problem in the East, given her seat is in Meclenburg Vorpommerm it will be interesting to see if she suffers as a result or still commands a personal vote.
Immiigration is the big issue and currently she is on the wrong side of her own supporters
I don't mind their playing hardball, but it's the nauseating sanctimonious hypocrisy that tends to wind me up...
Hopefully it'll lead to a similar backlash that which Obama caused.
Edited extra bit: it's also bemusing that the EU has the time to come up with this bullshit but still can't present any sort of proposal on money, except that the UK isn't paying enough because it won't agree to whatever the EU demands.
The thing is, though, that at least 40% of Catalans do want independence - many of them very much indeed. When they see it not happening despite the vote and when they see the Catalan separatist leaders being prosecuted and previously devolved powers being taken back by Madrid in order to maintain the integrity of the Spanish state they are not going to react well. I think there could well be significant violence, without the outside chance of lives being lost.
I don't say this lightly, but if people are thinking about a trip to Barcelona or anywhere else in Catalonia during October and November time, they might want to have a rethink.
On the subject of sidelining the EU negotiating team. It is not going to happen, any more than Leicester City get to pick the Chelsea side to play on Saturday. Any attempt to do so smacks of desperation and lack of understanding of how the EU works.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/06/write-donald-trump-dollar-peril/
It's AEP, so usual warning about bleak outlook!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/german-election-polls-odds-tracker-merkel-seeks-fourth-term1/
On this particular one the UK should be very accommodating. Northern Ireland has quite enough problems without being messed up further by extreme Brexit.
Of course, they might choose to refuse such talks but that would be their choice.
That's an interesting statement. I'm sure most EU migrants are employed; however, do most contribute significantly more in taxes than they do in benefits? Or does that assertion refer to all EU migrants added together (i.e. being heavily skewed by French bankers and PL footballers?).
And what a surprise, the UK does enforce those benefit rules:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-25134521
CDU/CSU 37-39
SPD 23-24
Linke 9-10
AfD 8-10
FPD 8-10
Grune 6-8
YouGov do seem to report the combined CDU/CSU-FDP share lower than other pollsters. This latest one gives them 43, which is the same as the last poll (which was a 36/7 split). Other pollsters have reported 45-49, which probably stradles the threshold for a two-party majority.
What an absolutely stupid decision. Surely just say uniform is trousers or skirt, pupils can choose, which is what most schools do.