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New study finds that fewer than ? CON. MPs elected at GE17 had constituency links compared with ? LAB MPs – Timeshttps://t.co/SoZfdOd4d2 pic.twitter.com/Wwtx49mh4c

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old_labour

First!

old_labour

Local seats for local people!

MTimT

US weather service has had to add extra colours to its rain maps to cope with Harvey. A new colour denotes those areas of Texas that have received over 30" of rain during the storm!

Dayton TX is closing in on 40" - think on that a moment. In 24 hours, Dayton has received Plymouth's entire average annual rainfall!

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/28/546776542/national-weather-service-adds-new-colors-so-it-can-map-harveys-rains?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20170828

Sandpit

Morning. Hope NK aren’t starting WWIII, but no way there can’t be a response to a missile going straight over another country.

CarlottaVance

Wouldn't ye know it - something else CCHQ got wrong at GE2017:

The report is likely to be read with interest by local Conservative associations, many of which were angry at the role Tory HQ played in selecting candidates in the run-up to the election.

Associations can normally choose between any candidate who has been vetted by the party and put on the official candidate list. However, because Theresa May called a snap election, Conservative campaign headquarters selected a shortlist of up to three candidates for local Tories to choose from. Some of these contained no local candidates.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/00f58672-8c28-11e7-a5d5-0066a735a5c3

Sandpit

MTimT said:

US weather service has had to add extra colours to its rain maps to cope with Harvey. A new colour denotes those areas of Texas that have received over 30" of rain during the storm!

Dayton TX is closing in on 40" - think on that a moment. In 24 hours, Dayton has received Plymouth's entire average annual rainfall!

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/28/546776542/national-weather-service-adds-new-colors-so-it-can-map-harveys-rains?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20170828

The airport in Houston has a couple of feet of water on top of the runway, the amount of rain has broken records. Hopefully lessons were learned after Katrina and the response to this one is better.
https://twitter.com/FotiABC13/status/901874109189148672

CarlottaVance

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

rkrkrk

Surprised that there is such a difference between the two parties.
I would not have expected Labour to be so much more local - people often say they are a metropolitan elite etc... but perhaps that's overstated. Corbyn may have had a small effect in alllowing local candidates and causing the likes of Tristram Hunt to leave?

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

CarlottaVance

The Americans aren't the only ones with a 'Russia' problem:

http://news.sky.com/story/photos-prove-russia-behind-montenegro-assassination-plot-11010838?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

Question is, who would leak this, and why now?

Sandpit

On topic, a very interesting article Mike. It makes perfect sense that there would be a few hundred votes for a clearly local candidate up against an outsider. I can understand why a party might want to find someone a reasonably safe seat, but they should still be putting them in an area where they know the electorate - what happened to the days where a local accountant or businessman would be the Conservative candidate, and the local factory shop steward the Labour candidate? I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

rkrkrk

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

CarlottaVance

Sandpit said:

I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

Given the high profile Miliband brothers (for example) I'd always (lazily) assumed it was a particular problem for Labour ("Trades Unionists & Miners replaced by College lecturers"), and while under two thirds of your candidates being 'local' is not great, its a heck of a lot better than the Tories third.....I also guess there are 'degrees' of locality - the Milibands obviously weren't by any stretch of the imagination 'local' - but I suspect a lot of the 'South East' Tories will also be from the South East...maybe just not within 12 miles.....

Sandpit

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

MJW

rkrkrk said:

Surprised that there is such a difference between the two parties.
I would not have expected Labour to be so much more local - people often say they are a metropolitan elite etc... but perhaps that's overstated. Corbyn may have had a small effect in alllowing local candidates and causing the likes of Tristram Hunt to leave?

rkrkrk said:

Surprised that there is such a difference between the two parties.
I would not have expected Labour to be so much more local - people often say they are a metropolitan elite etc... but perhaps that's overstated. Corbyn may have had a small effect in alllowing local candidates and causing the likes of Tristram Hunt to leave?

What's probably had much more effect is the Tories' imposition of 'A List' candidates from the centre from 2005 onwards, while Labour's own attempts to impose candidates has unwound since around about the same time (although isn't non-existent). That's partially due to having less powerful leaders - Corbyn's allies failed several times to install non-local favoured candidates so not down to him. Probably goes all the way back to Brown and leaders feeling less able to dictate to the party. Plus of course, the reason parachuting people in officially became widespread - namely breaking through the conservatism of local parties to get more diverse candidates with additional expertise - became less pressing, earlier, within Labour. The Tories are a phase behind Labour in that, and so will still have candidates pushed through to boost representation fairly early in their career. In Labour, many of those who were put up as candidates from 1994-2005 will now have left parliament for whatever reason and may well have been replaced by a candidate with local links who also fits in with other criteria.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

Given the high profile Miliband brothers (for example) I'd always (lazily) assumed it was a particular problem for Labour ("Trades Unionists & Miners replaced by College lecturers"), and while under two thirds of your candidates being 'local' is not great, its a heck of a lot better than the Tories third.....I also guess there are 'degrees' of locality - the Milibands obviously weren't by any stretch of the imagination 'local' - but I suspect a lot of the 'South East' Tories will also be from the South East...maybe just not within 12 miles.....

Yes, maybe it’s that the Labour examples are more obvious - Blair in Sedgefield is another famous one, clearly not being from ‘around here’ - whereas your stereotypical Tory lawyer or accountant could come from anywhere in the south of England and not look out of place. Maybe the MP for somewhere in Surrey originally came from somewhere in Berkshire or Middlesex.

Edit: as @MJW notes there was also the Cameron A-List in the 2010 election, which possibly distorts the numbers a little too.

rkrkrk

Very interesting piece which has challenged several of my priors.

Another surprise to me was how low the % of locals is in the South East.
Maybe a lot of people move down and settle there later... but I've always had the impression that MPs are predominantly from South East and London.

HarryHayfield

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

malcolmg

MTimT said:

US weather service has had to add extra colours to its rain maps to cope with Harvey. A new colour denotes those areas of Texas that have received over 30" of rain during the storm!

Dayton TX is closing in on 40" - think on that a moment. In 24 hours, Dayton has received Plymouth's entire average annual rainfall!

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/08/28/546776542/national-weather-service-adds-new-colors-so-it-can-map-harveys-rains?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20170828

This summer that would be a weeks worth in Scotland

rkrkrk

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

Thanks that makes sense to me... particularly the points about supply chain risk.

ydoethur

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

Given the high profile Miliband brothers (for example) I'd always (lazily) assumed it was a particular problem for Labour ("Trades Unionists & Miners replaced by College lecturers"), and while under two thirds of your candidates being 'local' is not great, its a heck of a lot better than the Tories third.....I also guess there are 'degrees' of locality - the Milibands obviously weren't by any stretch of the imagination 'local' - but I suspect a lot of the 'South East' Tories will also be from the South East...maybe just not within 12 miles.....

Yes, maybe it’s that the Labour examples are more obvious - Blair in Sedgefield is another famous one, clearly not being from ‘around here’ - whereas your stereotypical Tory lawyer or accountant could come from anywhere in the south of England and not look out of place. Maybe the MP for somewhere in Surrey originally came from somewhere in Berkshire or Middlesex.

Edit: as @MJW notes there was also the Cameron A-List in the 2010 election, which possibly distorts the numbers a little too.

Depends what you mean by local, doesn't it? Also depends on how you use it.

The MP for Cannock, Amanda Milling, isn't 'local' according to a strict definition but is from Burton which isn't exactly a long way off.

Mark Harper is from Swindon, but after being selected as the Forest of Dean candidate really put his heart and soul into the seat, visiting it every weekend, working as a school governor and I think doing other volunteering too.

David Drew, Labour MP for Stroud, is a slightly different case because although he's not from Stroud originally he's lived there for years and was a very successful local councillor - so he's accepted as a local.

By contrast, Parmjit Dhanda, the former MP for Gloucester, claimed to be a local because he had a house in Matson which he visited about once a month, spending most of his time in Clapham. He then misguidedly ran a smear campaign against Richard Graham for not being local even though Graham was born near Stow (there are plenty of other things he could be criticised for, but not that).

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

YBarddCwsc

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Ceredigion is one of the most unusual seats in Parliament. I wouldn't expect it to fit into a general pattern.

All the West Wales seats are unusual, but Ceredigion is the hardest to predict because of the presence of two Universities in a largely Welsh speaking hinterland.

ydoethur

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Mark Williams isn't from Ceredigion, although he made his home in Borth and worked the seat very hard. In fact I don't think he speaks Welsh either, but it may just be he never spoke it in my hearing.

YBarddCwsc

ydoethur said:

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Mark Williams isn't from Ceredigion, although he made his home in Borth and worked the seat very hard. In fact I don't think he speaks Welsh either, but it may just be he never spoke it in my hearing.

He doesn't speak Welsh, and was the first such to represent Ceredigion in recent times.

My guess is Labour did just well enough among Aberystwyth & Lampeter students & university staff to hand the seat to Plaid.

CarlottaVance

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

rkrkrk

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

London I suspect is high because there will be a lot of people who have worked in London before becoming an MP...

I also wonder what role accent makes in all this... even if I moved to a constituency in Scotland and worked there for 15 years - I wouldn't sound Scottish and I suspect would be viewed as more of an outsider than someone with a Scottish accent from a different part of the country.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Bit depressing that people be judged on where their house is rather than their competence.

I see Kim Jong-Un [I can never remember if 'Un' should be capitalised or not] has decided to reignite the pissing contest.

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
ttps://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

LOL, so Toynbee, Crick, Stephen Bush, Ian Katz, George Eaton etc should all just f*** off and join the Tories?

ydoethur

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Mark Williams isn't from Ceredigion, although he made his home in Borth and worked the seat very hard. In fact I don't think he speaks Welsh either, but it may just be he never spoke it in my hearing.

He doesn't speak Welsh, and was the first such to represent Ceredigion in recent times.

My guess is Labour did just well enough among Aberystwyth & Lampeter students & university staff to hand the seat to Plaid.

Aberystwyth broke up on the 3rd June, so most of its students would have left by the time of the election. Trinity St David broke up still earlier, on the 23rd May.

A more plausible suggestion is Williams' base was supported by the students, but his lack of Welsh and outsider status meant his support among permanent residents was too weak to hold the seat in their absence.

ydoethur

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
ttps://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

LOL, so Toynbee, Crick, Stephen Bush, Ian Katz, George Eaton etc should all just f*** off and join the Tories?

Would the Tories want them?!!

ydoethur

If Australia win or even draw this Test from here, they will have batted sensationally well.

Sandpit

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
ttps://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

LOL, so Toynbee, Crick, Stephen Bush, Ian Katz, George Eaton etc should all just f*** off and join the Tories?

Would the Tories want them?!!

Nope!

Edit: Of course most journalists make a point of not being members of a political party, except for those who have stood for election or who work with party-specific sites (eg Iain Dale, Tim Montgomerie).

NickPalmer

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

I think that's right. Other things being equal, it's clealry better to have local roots, and Mike's overview makes that clear, but it's possible to overcome it.

My personal experience was to be selected for a seat I'd not previously heard of in an area I'd never previously visited, while living in another country 1000 miles away, against an incumbent who had represented the area for 23 years. I came over every weekend for a year, went to every event I could find, put out press releases on everything, and campaigned as a fresh face. The incumbent didn't really bother, and was rarely in the news. We got an unusually large swing.

Charles

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Recidivist

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

One of the things I notice all the time is how low an opinion some people on the right have of capitalism. In my experience of it, it is extremely good at solving problems. So the shock to the system of Brexit might well have some very positive outcomes. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the fruit picking could be mechanised a lot more if there weren't cheap labourers for example. We might even become so efficient that we can export the produce. Holland manages to have a very profitable flower growing trade even though it has very little land - so anything is possible. I'd have rather had the shock from creating better social provision rather than leaving our major market, but even so I don't doubt that British businesses will thrive outside the EU. It might even prove to be a positive thing in the long run enabling us to become a lot stronger when we rejoin.

YBarddCwsc

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

No_Offence_Alan

It seems that discriminating against people because of their postcode is OK?

YBarddCwsc

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Mark Williams isn't from Ceredigion, although he made his home in Borth and worked the seat very hard. In fact I don't think he speaks Welsh either, but it may just be he never spoke it in my hearing.

He doesn't speak Welsh, and was the first such to represent Ceredigion in recent times.

My guess is Labour did just well enough among Aberystwyth & Lampeter students & university staff to hand the seat to Plaid.

Aberystwyth broke up on the 3rd June, so most of its students would have left by the time of the election. Trinity St David broke up still earlier, on the 23rd May.

A more plausible suggestion is Williams' base was supported by the students, but his lack of Welsh and outsider status meant his support among permanent residents was too weak to hold the seat in their absence.

Perhaps, but it doesn't explain why the Labour vote went up markedly (+11 %)

DavidL

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

I came through the ferry port at Newcastle yesterday morning on my way to Holland. The volume of cars waiting to be exported was stunning. I would guess more than 3000 vehicles.

I think I am right in saying that the bulk of their output goes for export.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Charles, that's the problem even for serious tests and studies. The author has a natural tendency to put himself as the average, the centre around which the others revolve. We did it when the Church tried insisting the world was at the centre of the universe (some would argue we're doing it now with global warming).

It's also done regarding free speech, whereby the unacceptability of speech depends on a combination of how sensitive someone is, and how far from their opinion the other perspective is.

rkrkrk

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

ThomasNashe

No_Offence_Alan said:

It seems that discriminating against people because of their postcode is OK?

Yes, voting is inherently discriminatory.

Pulpstar

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

DavidL

After landing at Amsterdam yesterday I drove north to Groningen. Holland is a surprisingly rural country once you get away from the cities where I had largely been before. A bit too flat for your average Scot but beautiful all the same.
My daughter is spending a year here on Erasmus. The number of Brits attending the University surprised me. Groningen is an exceptionally beautiful city with an incredible night life, much of it outside my bedroom window. Well worth a visit.

FF43

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

The key point is that Nissan isn't making the investments to source components locally. Its suppliers are. OEMs have a lot of power over their suppliers and manufacturers tend to like local sourcing anyway, for the reasons you give.

another_richard

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

Mark Williams isn't from Ceredigion, although he made his home in Borth and worked the seat very hard. In fact I don't think he speaks Welsh either, but it may just be he never spoke it in my hearing.

He doesn't speak Welsh, and was the first such to represent Ceredigion in recent times.

My guess is Labour did just well enough among Aberystwyth & Lampeter students & university staff to hand the seat to Plaid.

Aberystwyth broke up on the 3rd June, so most of its students would have left by the time of the election. Trinity St David broke up still earlier, on the 23rd May.

A more plausible suggestion is Williams' base was supported by the students, but his lack of Welsh and outsider status meant his support among permanent residents was too weak to hold the seat in their absence.

Perhaps, but it doesn't explain why the Labour vote went up markedly (+11 %)

I think much of Labour's vote gain in surprising places was through picking up general anti-establishment votes attracted by Corbyn.

In Ceredigion these people would have voted UKIP or Green in 2015 and LibDem previously.

rkrkrk

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

You can sometimes end up with weird things like that if you try to take a more empirical approach. It wouldn't surprise me if Toynbee had written more critical articles about Labour/Corbyn than Hitchens for instance... but as you suggest - the conclusion is weird.

YBarddCwsc

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Richard, depressed older turnout and UKIP types voting red will have helped a lot too.

Jonathan

The flipside of local is that it can be very cliquey. Not what you know, or where you know,but who you know. Nepotism runs through all our parties.

HYUFD

I think this is true, living in a seat or being born and raised there (or even in the same county or region) can all boost a candidate.

Being a local councillor also helps raise your profile in the area and I would encourage more Tory associations, especially in marginal seats, to pick well known councillors as candidates

CornishJohn

What sort of den of Islamism is Tower Hamlets council?

They are placing foster kids with niqab-wearing Salafi parents, who unsurprisingly teach them hate against Westerners.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/08/28/christian-girl-was-forced-into-foster-home-where-nobody-spoke-english-6883624/

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

I came through the ferry port at Newcastle yesterday morning on my way to Holland. The volume of cars waiting to be exported was stunning. I would guess more than 3000 vehicles.

I think I am right in saying that the bulk of their output goes for export.

Over 80%

TheScreamingEagles

So I'm going to win Sheffield Hallam for the Tories next time if I'm the candidate?

CornishJohn

rkrkrk said:

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

You can sometimes end up with weird things like that if you try to take a more empirical approach. It wouldn't surprise me if Toynbee had written more critical articles about Labour/Corbyn than Hitchens for instance... but as you suggest - the conclusion is weird.

How would Laura Kuenssberg have written critical articles of Labour? There's clearly nothing empirical about that list.

Monksfield

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

I think that's right. Other things being equal, it's clealry better to have local roots, and Mike's overview makes that clear, but it's possible to overcome it.

My personal experience was to be selected for a seat I'd not previously heard of in an area I'd never previously visited, while living in another country 1000 miles away, against an incumbent who had represented the area for 23 years. I came over every weekend for a year, went to every event I could find, put out press releases on everything, and campaigned as a fresh face. The incumbent didn't really bother, and was rarely in the news. We got an unusually large swing.

I think Nick while you clearly campaigned hard just having the party label 'Labour' after your name was enough to give you a big boost in 1997.

HYUFD

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

I guess the answer is the recent professionalisation of politics, where people go from university PPE course to intern to SpAd to candidate without any actual experience of working a proper job in their communities.

Given the high profile Miliband brothers (for example) I'd always (lazily) assumed it was a particular problem for Labour ("Trades Unionists & Miners replaced by College lecturers"), and while under two thirds of your candidates being 'local' is not great, its a heck of a lot better than the Tories third.....I also guess there are 'degrees' of locality - the Milibands obviously weren't by any stretch of the imagination 'local' - but I suspect a lot of the 'South East' Tories will also be from the South East...maybe just not within 12 miles.....

Yes, maybe it’s that the Labour examples are more obvious - Blair in Sedgefield is another famous one, clearly not being from ‘around here’ - whereas your stereotypical Tory lawyer or accountant could come from anywhere in the south of England and not look out of place. Maybe the MP for somewhere in Surrey originally came from somewhere in Berkshire or Middlesex.

Edit: as @MJW notes there was also the Cameron A-List in the 2010 election, which possibly distorts the numbers a little too.

Blair's father was a lecturer at Durham University

HYUFD

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

The Labour candidate got the biggest swing and had previously stood as a local councillor thus boosting his profile even if he did not win

rkrkrk

CornishJohn said:

rkrkrk said:

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

You can sometimes end up with weird things like that if you try to take a more empirical approach. It wouldn't surprise me if Toynbee had written more critical articles about Labour/Corbyn than Hitchens for instance... but as you suggest - the conclusion is weird.

How would Laura Kuenssberg have written critical articles of Labour? There's clearly nothing empirical about that list.

No idea... my point was merely that empiricism is not a guarantee against subjectivity with these kinds of tricky problems.

Monksfield

CornishJohn said:

rkrkrk said:

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

You can sometimes end up with weird things like that if you try to take a more empirical approach. It wouldn't surprise me if Toynbee had written more critical articles about Labour/Corbyn than Hitchens for instance... but as you suggest - the conclusion is weird.

How would Laura Kuenssberg have written critical articles of Labour? There's clearly nothing empirical about that list.

The fact that Corbyn was routinely described by her as hard/far left when no other leader and especially Farage had their views qualified thus was in my view an appalling act of partisan judgement from the political editor of the BBC. And believe me, I'm no Corbynista.

Monksfield

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I'm going to win Sheffield Hallam for the Tories next time if I'm the candidate?

I'll tip of my friends in Hallam about your Osbornian proclivities.

malcolmg

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

London I suspect is high because there will be a lot of people who have worked in London before becoming an MP...

I also wonder what role accent makes in all this... even if I moved to a constituency in Scotland and worked there for 15 years - I wouldn't sound Scottish and I suspect would be viewed as more of an outsider than someone with a Scottish accent from a different part of the country.

SNP has French and English born MPs'/MSP's, had Pakistani ones as well.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Monksfield, no other leader has described Hamas or Hezbollah as friends or admired the economics of Venezuela, either. It's frankly moderate language given Hamas' pastimes include throwing political rivals and gay people from rooftops.

CornishJohn

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

In other news.....

Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.

Good news for Sunderland I think...

But this sentence confused me a bit =:
"Nissan plans to source around 80pc of the parts for the plant in the UK, up from 40pc, as it looks to insure itself against the risk of higher export and import duties after Brexit."

If they are expecting higher export and import duties after Brexit... then wouldn't you increase production on the continent? Or is it that they think the cars in Sunderland will be sold to the UK market predominantly?

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

Thanks that makes sense to me... particularly the points about supply chain risk.

If someone reducing investment in the UK, it's because Brexit is bad. If someone is increasing investment in the UK, it's because Brexit is bad.

That's typical Chapman syndrome for you.

rkrkrk

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

Look at the comments below the Tweet:

https://twitter.com/themsley/status/902119661877297153
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/902121441436602368
https://twitter.com/MatthewBlott/status/902133857981521920

HYUFD

Democratic Socialists of America chant 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' at the closure of their annual convention
https://mobile.twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/902419042232700928

felix

CornishJohn said:

rkrkrk said:

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

You can sometimes end up with weird things like that if you try to take a more empirical approach. It wouldn't surprise me if Toynbee had written more critical articles about Labour/Corbyn than Hitchens for instance... but as you suggest - the conclusion is weird.

How would Laura Kuenssberg have written critical articles of Labour? There's clearly nothing empirical about that list.

You need to be LOCAL not LOCO

YBarddCwsc

HYUFD said:

HarryHayfield said:

In that case please explain Ceredigion: Sitting Liberal Democrat MP -7%, First time Plaid candidate (from Lampeter) +2%, Labour candidate (stood in local elections) +11%, Conservative (London) +7%, UKIP (Cardiff) -8%, Green (Brecon) -4%

The Labour candidate got the biggest swing and had previously stood as a local councillor thus boosting his profile even if he did not win

"... his profile.."

Dinah Mulholland is a she ...

Sandpit

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

rkrkrk said:

It’s a combination of factors:
1. The currency drop has make the UK cheaper than the Eurozone, even if there’s a tariff of 10% imposed on exports to the EU.
2. British-made cars will be a lot cheaper in the UK than EU imports if tariffs are imposed.
3. Sourcing parts locally reduces supply chain costs and currency risk
4. There’s already a lot of investment in the Sunderland plant, a decision to relocate wuold be a long term decision rather than a short term reaction to political events.
5. As plants become more automated the cost of labour is less of a factor than it used to be - cost of electricity and local taxes/regulations are a bigger factor.
6. The supply chain is just-in-time, the threat of parts being held in customs is a genuine risk of stopping the line, even if something is worked out in the medium term for regular importers.

In summary, Nissan are taking minor decisions to mitigate short term risk (which are good for the UK). Long term they’ll wait and see what happens in the next decade before making the bigger decisions such as where future investment in factories will be made.

One of the things I notice all the time is how low an opinion some people on the right have of capitalism. In my experience of it, it is extremely good at solving problems. So the shock to the system of Brexit might well have some very positive outcomes. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the fruit picking could be mechanised a lot more if there weren't cheap labourers for example. We might even become so efficient that we can export the produce. Holland manages to have a very profitable flower growing trade even though it has very little land - so anything is possible. I'd have rather had the shock from creating better social provision rather than leaving our major market, but even so I don't doubt that British businesses will thrive outside the EU. It might even prove to be a positive thing in the long run enabling us to become a lot stronger when we rejoin.

Well said - except for the end of the last sentence. There’s no way we are going to go to the effort of re-engaging with the rest of the world only to abandon international trade again in favour of a diminishing and protectionist trade bloc.

Ask any petrol station who spent a hundred grand on an automatic car wash a decade ago how their investment looks now, with the industry overrun with cheap labour. A reduction in cheap imported labour will undoubtedly lead to productivity increases and innovations in a whole load of industries.

Video of automatic fruit tree shaker, one man can harvest a tree tree in under a minute:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=8eOlM-l1114

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

Peter Hitchens was a Marxist at university, Toynbee joined the SDP

CarlottaVance

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

I suppose all things are relative - but I doubt la Toynbee will relish being described as 'Centre Right' Conservative - along with Patrick Wintour, nor Michael Crick as Soft Right
......
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/901546618255757312

Doesn't it depend on where the author puts the "centre"?

Polly Toynbee to the right of Peter Hitchens.

It's a view I suppose.

Look at the comments below the Tweet:

https://twitter.com/themsley/status/902119661877297153
https://twitter.com/the_awakend/status/902121441436602368
https://twitter.com/MatthewBlott/status/902133857981521920

I think 'The People's Champ may be a typo....

TheScreamingEagles

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I'm going to win Sheffield Hallam for the Tories next time if I'm the candidate?

I'll tip of my friends in Hallam about your Osbornian proclivities.

Cheers, that's going to win me a landslide.

YBarddCwsc

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I'm going to win Sheffield Hallam for the Tories next time if I'm the candidate?

I'll tip of my friends in Hallam about your Osbornian proclivities.

Cheers, that's going to win me a landslide.

The Tories came third in Sheffield Hallam in June on about 24%, 14% behind Labour and 11% behind the LDs so actually being an Osborneite may not be too bad there if it helped you squeeze the former Clegg vote
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

HYUFD

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

YBarddCwsc

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

Well done.

Monksfield

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

CornishJohn

BBC Remainer bias in action.

Headline: Frankfurt is winning the battle for Brexit spoils

Text in the article from Frankfurt authorities:

"these are all plans from the last 10 or 15 years, nothing to do with Brexit".

"the truth is people are coming, looking around, but not making decisions."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41026575

Sean_F

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

Well done.

Nadine Dorries, as well.

YBarddCwsc

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

Monksfield

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

I believe Angela Rayner worked as a care worker for a while.

OchEye

malcolmg said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

London I suspect is high because there will be a lot of people who have worked in London before becoming an MP...

I also wonder what role accent makes in all this... even if I moved to a constituency in Scotland and worked there for 15 years - I wouldn't sound Scottish and I suspect would be viewed as more of an outsider than someone with a Scottish accent from a different part of the country.

SNP has French and English born MPs'/MSP's, had Pakistani ones as well.

Even one of the founders of the SNP was English born:
"Wendy Wood (born Gwendoline Emily Meacham) (1892 – 30 June 1981) was a campaigner for Scottish independence and founder of the Scottish Patriots"
"Wood was born in Kent, England, before her parents moved to South Africa, where her father was a brewery manager and landscape painter, and was brought up in the latter country. Wood adopted her mother's maiden name in 1927 to emphasize her artistic connections."
"In 1928 Wood was one of the founders of the National Party of Scotland, which grew into the Scottish National Party, but, in the 1930s, decided that a non-party approach to Scottish independence was more effective."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendy_Wood

Sean_F

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

I don't think that it's possible for MP's to be truly representative. By definition, people who pursue full time political careers are unrepresentative.

OchEye

There was a discussion last night on shooting fish in barrels (too tired) but this is what it means:
http://www.clupea.net/fleets/Ger_driftnet/Fig18-Fass-Spiegel.jpg

Monksfield

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

And was that ever the case? You're indulging in fantasyland. I note the Tories are now apparently the party of the WWC, so I look forward to the cohort of new MPs in 2019/20/21/22 drawn from their ranks.

rkrkrk

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

It's indisputable that this has declined significantly in Labour from 1979 to now.

I agree that people can vote in the interest of communities they don't come from/aren't currently part of... but I think it is significant that working class representation has fallen so much.

For instance - if Labour had had a more recognisably 'working class' leader campaigning for Remain - might that have swung the EU referendum the other way?

foxinsoxuk

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

Well done.

Nadine Dorries, as well.

Eleanor Smith in Wolverhampton SW too.

Monksfield

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

I don't think that it's possible for MP's to be truly representative. By definition, people who pursue full time political careers are unrepresentative.

Yes! And whereas in times past, people maybe turned to politics in later life, that's much less the case now. People aim for politics as a career. Parliament is not better for it either.

CarlottaVance

Imagine the letter Trump will eventually write.....

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/763125862925492225

Monksfield

foxinsoxuk said:

Sean_F said:

YBarddCwsc said:

HYUFD said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

ydoethur said:

I think on the whole an outsider who doesn't pretend to be born and bred but who is willing to get their heads down and tread a seat and become a local will always be personally popular, but a pseud who pretends to localism when they live elsewhere will struggle. Deservedly so, I think.

My suspicion would be that some areas of the UK have stronger 'identities' than others and would be tougher to get elected if you're not from there. I wasn't surprised to Wales, NI and Scotland high up the list for instance...

Was it always so, I wonder?

Two of the most famous Scottish-born MPs (Ramsey MacDonald and Keir Hardie) represented Welsh seats.

I guess they were seen as working-class rather than Scots, but class-based loyalties are now so much weaker.

Alternatively working class people just don't get into parliament any more...?

Sadly true.

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

Evidence ?

As you have mentioned nurses, how many people are there who were nurses or carers who are now MPs?

There are many more doctors. I can think of two straightaway.

Anne Milton MP for Guildford

Well done.

Nadine Dorries, as well.

Eleanor Smith in Wolverhampton SW too.

Laura Moffat was another, albeit from the not too distant past.

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

Imagine the letter Trump will eventually write.....

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/763125862925492225

1992 was a real battle of the centrists, politically Clinton and Bush Snr are closer to each other than Trump and Sanders

HYUFD

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

It's indisputable that this has declined significantly in Labour from 1979 to now.

I agree that people can vote in the interest of communities they don't come from/aren't currently part of... but I think it is significant that working class representation has fallen so much.

For instance - if Labour had had a more recognisably 'working class' leader campaigning for Remain - might that have swung the EU referendum the other way?

Alan Johnson campaigned for Remain and was working class

Monksfield

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

It's indisputable that this has declined significantly in Labour from 1979 to now.

I agree that people can vote in the interest of communities they don't come from/aren't currently part of... but I think it is significant that working class representation has fallen so much.

For instance - if Labour had had a more recognisably 'working class' leader campaigning for Remain - might that have swung the EU referendum the other way?

The decline in working class representation mirrors the crumbling of the working class and what it means. What could be a more working class job than train driver - it's what every 50s kid wanted to be. Yet some train drivers these days earn as much as an MP.

foxinsoxuk

MJW said:

rkrkrk said:

Surprised that there is such a difference between the two parties.
I would not have expected Labour to be so much more local - people often say they are a metropolitan elite etc... but perhaps that's overstated. Corbyn may have had a small effect in alllowing local candidates and causing the likes of Tristram Hunt to leave?

rkrkrk said:

Surprised that there is such a difference between the two parties.
I would not have expected Labour to be so much more local - people often say they are a metropolitan elite etc... but perhaps that's overstated. Corbyn may have had a small effect in alllowing local candidates and causing the likes of Tristram Hunt to leave?

What's probably had much more effect is the Tories' imposition of 'A List' candidates from the centre from 2005 onwards, while Labour's own attempts to impose candidates has unwound since around about the same time (although isn't non-existent). That's partially due to having less powerful leaders - Corbyn's allies failed several times to install non-local favoured candidates so not down to him. Probably goes all the way back to Brown and leaders feeling less able to dictate to the party. Plus of course, the reason parachuting people in officially became widespread - namely breaking through the conservatism of local parties to get more diverse candidates with additional expertise - became less pressing, earlier, within Labour. The Tories are a phase behind Labour in that, and so will still have candidates pushed through to boost representation fairly early in their career. In Labour, many of those who were put up as candidates from 1994-2005 will now have left parliament for whatever reason and may well have been replaced by a candidate with local links who also fits in with other criteria.

I think that Corbyn has always been keen on local constituency party power, so interefered very little with selections. He was even happy to appear alongside candidates who had been in vocal opoosition to his leadership, such as Gareth Snell.

HYUFD

YBarddCwsc said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

That is not the point. In fact, it is a very patrician attitude.

We expect MPs to be representative of the population. We expect a reasonable proportion of MPs to come from ethnic minority backgrounds. We expect a reasonable proportion of gay, lesbian MPs, etc.

The people who have escaped the Council Estate through education are not representative of the people who are still living on Council Estates.

If 50 per cent go to University, then 50 per cent don't. The 50 per cent who don't should be properly represented.

They shouldn't be represented by people who are now doctors or professors or lawyers but whose parents once were working class.

Surely that is up to the voters to decide. Ironically the party with most working class candidates is now probably the BNP followed by UKIP and I doubt you want too many MPs from them

rkrkrk

Bangladesh collapse....

Allan

HYUFD said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

rkrkrk said:

Monksfield said:

<

No it isn't. That's not true at all. I expect you'll be saying that until people are sitting in Parliament in boiler suits, miners lamps and nurses uniforms.

There are many many MPs on all sides of the house from working class backgrounds.

I think it's definitely lower than it has been in the past?

http://www.newstatesman.com/2017/06/long-read-how-political-parties-lost-working-class

"the image conscious [Conservative] party published a second edition of a pamphlet, entitled the Party of Opportunity, designed to showcase the working-class credentials of 29 of its MPs – or, less than 10 per cent of the party’s representatives at the time of publication"

"Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the [Labour] party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015."

This may partly reflect the fact that the middle classes have grown (I assume) as Britain has become wealthier. Also many more people go to university now... which is probably one factor that would make you middle class...

But still I suspect it's lower than previous largely because Labour used to supply more...

I doubt any Parliament anywhere in the first world has significant numbers of former manual workers. It's more likely that they are populated by people from working class families who make good. That does not preclude them voting in the interests of the community from whence they came.

It's indisputable that this has declined significantly in Labour from 1979 to now.

I agree that people can vote in the interest of communities they don't come from/aren't currently part of... but I think it is significant that working class representation has fallen so much.

For instance - if Labour had had a more recognisably 'working class' leader campaigning for Remain - might that have swung the EU referendum the other way?

Alan Johnson campaigned for Remain and was working class

Alan Johnson was beaten by Harriet Harman for the Deputyship.

Morris_Dancer

F1: from BBC gossip column:
"Max Verstappen's dad, Jos, says he and his son are starting to question whether Red Bull can turn around their situation with Renault engine problems. (Ziggo Sport, via Autosport)"

Hmm. What's the alternative? Can't see either Ferrari or Mercedes being keen to help out. Well. Unless they got Verstappen. But the Renault situation makes it likelier Verstappen will want to leave anyway.