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  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. Sandpit, there's been some damned gimpish reporting recently. Different case but same idiocy came from a blonde numpty for ITV News, a few weeks ago, claiming that the Grenfell fire put a question mark over the government.

    There's been such a run of success in opinion-forming from cities in general and London in particular, of the middle class over the working class, that some seem utterly unable to come to terms with the referendum result. The treatment of UK positions as aspirations, hopes etc and EU positions as set in stone tablets handed down by God Almighty is just daft.

    In recent times it seems nuance has been thrown out of the window (well, reduced in popularity at least) in favour of binary, black-and-white treatment of subjects.

    Why have a referendum then if you complain about binary black and white choices .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. City, media reporting and opinions generally should have a full spectrum. That's entirely different to the way elections are run (or a referendum) which necessarily have limited choices.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yeah, I saw Juncker had been shooting his mouth off, which us what prompted my question of why the EU still hasn't given us a detailed breakdown on monies owed?

    It does look as though unfortunately the EU is simply not interested in a sensible negotiation...
    Fog in Leavers' heads, continent cut off.
    Morning Mr Meeks.

    I thought that might tempt you out to play. ;)
    Your concern is a good one, mind. Some within the EU don't seem much interested in a negotiation.

    The British negotiating approach has been lamentable. They've been tough where they should have been conciliatory and as a consequence have felt obliged to be conciliatory when they should have been tough.

    By wasting all their political capital on puffing out their chests and painting themselves in woad at a time when a friendly approach would have worked wonders, they are unable to reject contemptuously the EU's more outrageous demands because it will look like more of the same old ranting from the crazy British.
    Hopefully we're all still messing around until Merkel is re-elected and then things will get serious (my expectation was always that the real negotiating happens after Germany's election)

    If things haven't moved forward significantly by Christmas then we'll have to start preparing to walk away without a deal sadly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Gin, indeed.

    Although I can't help but feel Hannibal would've conquered Brussels by now.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited August 2017
    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yeah, I saw Juncker had been shooting his mouth off, which us what prompted my question of why the EU still hasn't given us a detailed breakdown on monies owed?

    It does look as though unfortunately the EU is simply not interested in a sensible negotiation...
    Fog in Leavers' heads, continent cut off.
    Morning Mr Meeks.

    I thought that might tempt you out to play. ;)
    Your concern is a good one, mind. Some within the EU don't seem much interested in a negotiation.

    The British negotiating approach has been lamentable. They've been tough where they should have been conciliatory and as a consequence have felt obliged to be conciliatory when they should have been tough.

    By wasting all their political capital on puffing out their chests and painting themselves in woad at a time when a friendly approach would have worked wonders, they are unable to reject contemptuously the EU's more outrageous demands because it will look like more of the same old ranting from the crazy British.
    Hopefully we're all still messing around until Merkel is re-elected and then things will get serious (my expectation was always that the real negotiating happens after Germany's election)
    Hope is a strategy after all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    FF43 said:

    The UK "position" paper on the subject is waffle. I am guessing (2) is the most likely outcome, but it is going to be very messy.

    Do you really think so? That would only happen if the EU is badly miscalculating. Surely the point of the sequencing is to force the UK to chose between (1) and (3).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yeah, I saw Juncker had been shooting his mouth off, which us what prompted my question of why the EU still hasn't given us a detailed breakdown on monies owed?

    It does look as though unfortunately the EU is simply not interested in a sensible negotiation...
    Fog in Leavers' heads, continent cut off.
    Morning Mr Meeks.

    I thought that might tempt you out to play. ;)
    Your concern is a good one, mind. Some within the EU don't seem much interested in a negotiation.

    The British negotiating approach has been lamentable. They've been tough where they should have been conciliatory and as a consequence have felt obliged to be conciliatory when they should have been tough.

    By wasting all their political capital on puffing out their chests and painting themselves in woad at a time when a friendly approach would have worked wonders, they are unable to reject contemptuously the EU's more outrageous demands because it will look like more of the same old ranting from the crazy British.
    Hopefully we're all still messing around until Merkel is re-elected and then things will get serious (my expectation was always that the real negotiating happens after Germany's election)
    Hope is a strategy after all.
    Well if not, If the EU remain totally un-serious about the negotiation we'll just have to leave and go to WTO (at least we'll be able to start negotiating trade deals with other countries that are serious)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970

    Nigelb said:

    If Remain voters have had a tough time in the cinema this summer with Dunkirk, their autumn isn't going to be much fun either:

    http://www.focusfeatures.com/darkesthour/?redirect=off

    Churchill certainly had different views on Europe to those expressed in the Remain campaign.

    "We must aim at nothing less than the union of Europe as a whole, and we look forward with confidence to the day when that union will be achieved."
    I’ve not seen the film yet, but I agree with those more distinguished PB-ers who wonder why Remainers should have a 'tough time’ with Dunkirk.
    I may get a chance to see it this week.

    Clearly Leavers like it, and to use it as a stick to beat Remainers, but this says more about their nostalgic empire based fantasies than the people they direct their bile at. I expect the Churchill film will be much the same, indeed it is no coincidence that such films have been released at such times.
    It's very good - though the non-synchronous nature of the segments (the air episode lasts an hour, the sea a day and the land a week) threw me at first

    Actually, it was the Remainer press (FT, Guardian & NYT) that used it as a stick to beat Brexit....

    And its a complete coincidence that the films have been released at such a time - Nolan started thinking about Dunkirk in the mid-nineties and the producers of Darkest Hour secured the rights before the 2015 GE.
    That shows some confusion about the film industry, I think.
    The number of films that get made is an order of magnitude (at the very least) less than those for which rights are secured.
    What counts is what gets funded, and when.
    Both films were cast before the Brexit vote and Dunkirk started filming before it was held. The notion that Hollywood saw the Brexit vote and thought 'what films can we make'? wrt these two is whats confused.
    Its more the atmosphere in the run up to Brexit that set the movies theme as part of the zeitgeist.
    Actually, judging by box office takings, the true zeitgeist is Chinese nationalist heroism, with the west as the bad guys...
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/Investors-laughing-as-Wolf-Warrior-II-kills-at-the-box-office
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I have a feeling that the EU will become an unpleasant place to be for small countries such as the Irish Republic. The unified corporation rate is likely to be damaging. The back tax to be applied to Apple looks as though it must be collected - and paid out to the other members of the EU as compensation for Irish misbehaviour. I can't see that American companies will continue to use Irish call centres to sell into the UK, and the call centres are probably not polyglot enough to sell into the rest of europe. And you have a Brussels that is sending out a never ending stream of threats and fines to the small countries.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Another nurse MP: Maria Caulfield, Lewes. I think she was still employed as a nurse when she was elected in 2010.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited August 2017

    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.

    Is one of the issues that the EU team can not negotiate?

    Isn't it the case that they have a position that is set and agreed by the membership.

    These positions on various topics are handed down to the negotiating team who are waiting for us to agree with the terms they are authorised by the membership to agree.

    If they negotiate a different end point to that which they have authorisation to agree, there then has to be a new agreement from the membership, which may or not be forthcoming dependent on who is aggrieved by the changed position.

    The EU appears hamstrung and rather inflexible due to its inflexibility, shown in the need to find the result before the negotiations begin.

    The use of the term negotiations appears to inaccurate. Acceptance or implementation of our position seem to be the EU expectations.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Perhaps the most telling quote from Churchill is not the misquoted and stitched together one one so beloved of Eurosceptics but the one recorded in Hansard from 11th May 1953.

    "Where do we stand? We are not members of the European Defence Community, nor do we intend to be merged in a Federal European system. We feel we have a special relation to both. This can be expressed by prepositions, by the preposition "with" but not "of"—we are with them, but not of them.  We have our own Commonwealth and Empire."

    That is the direct quote from Hansard as repeated by the very Europhile Joe Danzig.

    https://neweuropeans.net/article/604/revealing-deception-about-winston-churchill

    The preceding paragraph shows how anachronistic the context in which he is speaking is.

    If, today, the French had the same military system that the Socialist Government set up in Great Britain—what I may call the Shinwell system—namely, two years' military service and the power to send National Service men or conscripts abroad beyond Europe, they would, I believe, have had much less difficulty in maintaining their positions in Indo-China and could also have developed a far stronger army in defence of their own soil in line with their allies. The fact that they have hitherto found themselves unable to take these kinds of military measures has exposed them to great difficulty.
    Churchill was an anachronism even in his time. He was no political Nostradamus, and indeed his political opinions were often very off the mark.

    Eurosceptics would be better taking the Labour politicians of the 50's and 60's as their poster boys, as they were at least a bit more up to date.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    philiph said:

    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.

    Is one of the issues that the EU team can not negotiate?

    Isn't it the case that they have a position that is set and agreed by the membership.

    These positions on various topics are handed down to the negotiating team who are waiting for us to agree with the terms they are authorised by the membership to agree.

    If they negotiate a different end point to that which they have authorisation to agree, there then has to get a new agreement from the membership, which may or not be forthcoming dependent on who is aggrieved by the changed position.

    The EU appears hamstrung and rather inflexible due to its inflexibilityn shown in the need to find the result before the negotiations begin.

    The use of the term negotiations appears to inaccurate. Acceptance or implementation of our position seem to be the EU expectations.
    I would agree. The EU27 seem to understand that Brexit means Brexit better than our own politicians. There really is nothing to negotiate apart from the mechanisms and process of Brexit.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited August 2017

    philiph said:

    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.

    Is one of the issues that the EU team can not negotiate?

    Isn't it the case that they have a position that is set and agreed by the membership.

    These positions on various topics are handed down to the negotiating team who are waiting for us to agree with the terms they are authorised by the membership to agree.

    If they negotiate a different end point to that which they have authorisation to agree, there then has to get a new agreement from the membership, which may or not be forthcoming dependent on who is aggrieved by the changed position.

    The EU appears hamstrung and rather inflexible due to its inflexibilityn shown in the need to find the result before the negotiations begin.

    The use of the term negotiations appears to inaccurate. Acceptance or implementation of our position seem to be the EU expectations.
    I would agree. The EU27 seem to understand that Brexit means Brexit better than our own politicians. There really is nothing to negotiate apart from the mechanisms and process of Brexit.
    And I agree with your oft stated view that it is at least an 85% chance of WTO at the end.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    PAW said:

    I have a feeling that the EU will become an unpleasant place to be for small countries such as the Irish Republic. The unified corporation rate is likely to be damaging. The back tax to be applied to Apple looks as though it must be collected - and paid out to the other members of the EU as compensation for Irish misbehaviour. I can't see that American companies will continue to use Irish call centres to sell into the UK, and the call centres are probably not polyglot enough to sell into the rest of europe. And you have a Brussels that is sending out a never ending stream of threats and fines to the small countries.

    I used to LOVE AOL's (remember them?) Irish call center 15 years ago lol! :D
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,402
    edited August 2017

    FF43 said:

    The UK "position" paper on the subject is waffle. I am guessing (2) is the most likely outcome, but it is going to be very messy.

    Do you really think so? That would only happen if the EU is badly miscalculating. Surely the point of the sequencing is to force the UK to chose between (1) and (3).
    I don't know. Hard border between NI and RoI (2) is the default so I assume that it is more likely to happen. I can't see England accepting integration with EU/Ireland (1) just because that benefits Northern Ireland. Special status for Northern Ireland as a territory operating to EU rules and separate from the UK, while possibly formally a UK territory (3) is presumably what NI Republicans would push for and Unionists would reject. I am not an expert on Northern Ireland, but it all looks very messy to me.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    philiph said:

    philiph said:

    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.

    Is one of the issues that the EU team can not negotiate?

    Isn't it the case that they have a position that is set and agreed by the membership.

    These positions on various topics are handed down to the negotiating team who are waiting for us to agree with the terms they are authorised by the membership to agree.

    If they negotiate a different end point to that which they have authorisation to agree, there then has to get a new agreement from the membership, which may or not be forthcoming dependent on who is aggrieved by the changed position.

    The EU appears hamstrung and rather inflexible due to its inflexibilityn shown in the need to find the result before the negotiations begin.

    The use of the term negotiations appears to inaccurate. Acceptance or implementation of our position seem to be the EU expectations.
    I would agree. The EU27 seem to understand that Brexit means Brexit better than our own politicians. There really is nothing to negotiate apart from the mechanisms and process of Brexit.
    And I agree with your oft stated view that it is at least an 85% chance of WTO at the end.
    Though curiously neither side seems to be preparing for such an event. This makes me wonder whether the whole thing will be kicked into touch, but on the other hand extension requires unanimity, so who knows?

    It is touching though to see the faith that the Leavers have in Merkel pulling tbeir nuts out of the fire.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Dr. Foxinsox, lack of preparation for WTO terms seems surprising, as you say.

    Who's counting on Merkel?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. City, media reporting and opinions generally should have a full spectrum. That's entirely different to the way elections are run (or a referendum) which necessarily have limited choices.

    Yes but not always have to be black and white ,for example the Scottish could have had a different option than yes or no .
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    philiph said:

    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.

    Is one of the issues that the EU team can not negotiate?

    Isn't it the case that they have a position that is set and agreed by the membership.

    These positions on various topics are handed down to the negotiating team who are waiting for us to agree with the terms they are authorised by the membership to agree.

    If they negotiate a different end point to that which they have authorisation to agree, there then has to be a new agreement from the membership, which may or not be forthcoming dependent on who is aggrieved by the changed position.

    The EU appears hamstrung and rather inflexible due to its inflexibility, shown in the need to find the result before the negotiations begin.

    The use of the term negotiations appears to inaccurate. Acceptance or implementation of our position seem to be the EU expectations.
    The UK's political classes and it's media moguls have been semi detached from the EU for years. They can't really believe that most of the EU27 regard them as a pack of useless w**kers. We cannot change the rules of a club we want to leave if all the other members don't give a damn if we stay or go. They will quite happily keep going whatever happens.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Chris Rea gives a characteristically bullish response when asked how Brexit will affect his Yorkshire-based manufacturing business.

    “The pound has depreciated by more than 15 per cent against the main currencies we trade in,” says the pugnacious boss of AESSeal, a mechanical sealmaker, referring to sterling’s slide over the past 18 months.

    “Meanwhile the World Trade Organization tariff for the goods we produce is on average 1.7 per cent. So tell me: how exactly is it going to hurt us?”....

    More broadly he is relaxed about the risk of non-tariff barriers to trade after Brexit. “The barriers to trade in my experience are more around language than anything else,” he says. “We’re fortunate in this country to speak the global language of business.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/d8846ce0-88c0-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. City, a multi-stage referendum could be legitimate but one with more than two options is very dubious (because you could 'win' with 34% of the vote). And before anyone makes a spurious electoral comparison, there's a qualitative difference which is that decisions can be deferred but we must always have MPs and a government so *someone* has to win an election.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2017

    Dr. Foxinsox, lack of preparation for WTO terms seems surprising, as you say.

    Who's counting on Merkel?

    Apparently all will be sorted when Merkel is re elected. It is all a lot like awaiting Kampfgruppe Steiner to encircle the Red Army...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    edited August 2017
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Sandpit, barmen?

    Sorry, misread your post.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited August 2017

    Chris Rea gives a characteristically bullish response when asked how Brexit will affect his Yorkshire-based manufacturing business.

    “The pound has depreciated by more than 15 per cent against the main currencies we trade in,” says the pugnacious boss of AESSeal, a mechanical sealmaker, referring to sterling’s slide over the past 18 months.

    “Meanwhile the World Trade Organization tariff for the goods we produce is on average 1.7 per cent. So tell me: how exactly is it going to hurt us?”....

    More broadly he is relaxed about the risk of non-tariff barriers to trade after Brexit. “The barriers to trade in my experience are more around language than anything else,” he says. “We’re fortunate in this country to speak the global language of business.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/d8846ce0-88c0-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787

    How could they resist 'Brexit no Road to Hell for this Chris Rea'
  • Perhaps the most telling quote from Churchill is not the misquoted and stitched together one one so beloved of Eurosceptics but the one recorded in Hansard from 11th May 1953.

    "Where do we stand? We are not members of the European Defence Community, nor do we intend to be merged in a Federal European system. We feel we have a special relation to both. This can be expressed by prepositions, by the preposition "with" but not "of"—we are with them, but not of them.  We have our own Commonwealth and Empire."

    That is the direct quote from Hansard as repeated by the very Europhile Joe Danzig.

    https://neweuropeans.net/article/604/revealing-deception-about-winston-churchill

    The preceding paragraph shows how anachronistic the context in which he is speaking is.

    If, today, the French had the same military system that the Socialist Government set up in Great Britain—what I may call the Shinwell system—namely, two years' military service and the power to send National Service men or conscripts abroad beyond Europe, they would, I believe, have had much less difficulty in maintaining their positions in Indo-China and could also have developed a far stronger army in defence of their own soil in line with their allies. The fact that they have hitherto found themselves unable to take these kinds of military measures has exposed them to great difficulty.
    No it doesn't. There is no way anyone could seriously take that preceding paragraph as in anyway changing the context of what Churchill said.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,402
    edited August 2017

    Though curiously neither side seems to be preparing for such an event. This makes me wonder whether the whole thing will be kicked into touch, but on the other hand extension requires unanimity, so who knows?

    It is touching though to see the faith that the Leavers have in Merkel pulling tbeir nuts out of the fire.

    There probably isn't a single cliff edge that kicks in on March 2019. There is no transition on offer. There may be continuity where the UK agrees to remain in the EU system on current terms as a non-member. At any stage it decides to jump off, or is pushed off, it will be over the cliff. Would we ever choose to jump?

    None of this has anything to do with Merkel and the German election. Our negotiations are with the EU. The Germans are central to that project but their power comes through consensus with the other partners. While the EU are indeed bureaucratic the upside for us, as Michel Barnier points out, is that we get a single agreement for the whole of Europe. Otherwise we would be in 27 different concurrent and incompatible negotiations. We might as well get the EU bureaucracy to herd the cats than attempt to do it ourselves.

    And PS it is ironic that we depend on EU legalism to get a workable deal with the rest of Europe when it was largely that legalism that made us leave the EU in the first place.

  • GIN1138 said:

    Yeah, I saw Juncker had been shooting his mouth off, which us what prompted my question of why the EU still hasn't given us a detailed breakdown on monies owed?

    It does look as though unfortunately the EU is simply not interested in a sensible negotiation...
    Fog in Leavers' heads, continent cut off.
    Nothing in Remainers' heads. Situation normal.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. City, a multi-stage referendum could be legitimate but one with more than two options is very dubious (because you could 'win' with 34% of the vote). And before anyone makes a spurious electoral comparison, there's a qualitative difference which is that decisions can be deferred but we must always have MPs and a government so *someone* has to win an election.

    Personally not a great fan of referendums as it should be elected representatives making these decisions.The only time regarding the EC EU , Britain has used them is because the governing party Labour then Conservatives were split and used this for partisan reasons not for democratic ones.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    British public probably not too keen on giving Corbyn the keys to number 10 when push comes to shove.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    Tories would likely still be largest party if that Labour lead if just 1% is true
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. City, generally I agree but there are specific situations when they should, even must, be used. Changing the electoral system would be one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Mortimer said:

    Chris Rea gives a characteristically bullish response when asked how Brexit will affect his Yorkshire-based manufacturing business.

    “The pound has depreciated by more than 15 per cent against the main currencies we trade in,” says the pugnacious boss of AESSeal, a mechanical sealmaker, referring to sterling’s slide over the past 18 months.

    “Meanwhile the World Trade Organization tariff for the goods we produce is on average 1.7 per cent. So tell me: how exactly is it going to hurt us?”....

    More broadly he is relaxed about the risk of non-tariff barriers to trade after Brexit. “The barriers to trade in my experience are more around language than anything else,” he says. “We’re fortunate in this country to speak the global language of business.”


    https://www.ft.com/content/d8846ce0-88c0-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787

    How could they resist 'Brexit no Road to Hell for this Chris Rea'
    Damn you, I was just writing the same!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Certainly if Owen Jones is calling for May to sack him.in that article
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    Tories would likely still be largest party if that Labour lead if just 1% is true
    Remarkably stable Tory figure. Most impressive. I blame Mrs May for such a strong and stable performance.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    And that's before Jezza betrayed "the north" over Brexit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,074
    Mr. Mortimer, it's bizarre. The Conservatives are lacklustre, Labour's led by a far left loon, and both are persistently polling in the 40s.

    Anyway, I must be off.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited August 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if Owen Jones is calling for May to sack him.in that article
    I see Jones is citing Rachel Sylvester's fabulously bitchy piece in the Times this morning.

    Wasn't Sylvester always part of Team Boy George (along with D'Ancona?) ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    British public probably not too keen on giving Corbyn the keys to number 10 when push comes to shove.
    It seems to be older voters swinging to Con and some decline in (the still stratospheric) enthusiasm for Labour among the young:

    Con lead (Change vs 5/6 July - Lab 8 point lead)

    18-24: -42 (+16)
    25-49: -21 (+5)
    50-64: +9 (+12)
    65+: +48( -1)
  • FF43 said:

    Though curiously neither side seems to be preparing for such an event. This makes me wonder whether the whole thing will be kicked into touch, but on the other hand extension requires unanimity, so who knows?

    It is touching though to see the faith that the Leavers have in Merkel pulling tbeir nuts out of the fire.

    There probably isn't a single cliff edge that kicks in on March 2019. There is no transition on offer. There may be continuity where the UK agrees to remain in the EU system on current terms as a non-member. At any stage it decides to jump off, or is pushed off, it will be over the cliff. Would we ever choose to jump?

    None of this has anything to do with Merkel and the German election. Our negotiations are with the EU. The Germans are central to that project but their power comes through consensus with the other partners. While the EU are indeed bureaucratic the upside for us, as Michel Barnier points out, is that we get a single agreement for the whole of Europe. Otherwise we would be in 27 different concurrent and incompatible negotiations. We might as well get the EU bureaucracy to herd the cats than attempt to do it ourselves.

    And PS it is ironic that we depend on EU legalism to get a workable deal with the rest of Europe when it was largely that legalism that made us leave the EU in the first place.

    Hardly ironic. Given that it is the EU calling the shots it is perhaps yet another example of why it is a good reason to leave. They will, as always, act in the best interests of the EU as a set of institutions rather than in the best interests of either the member countries or their citizens. They have made this clear with the position of 'punishing' the UK for leaving even where it hurts their own continuing members and citizens.
  • "... in the key general election marginals candidates with local links are likely to have an edge"

    No disrespect intended, but as a statement doesn't that rank as being a case of yesterday's glimpse of the blindingly obvious?
  • OchEye said:

    philiph said:

    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.

    Is one of the issues that the EU team can not negotiate?

    Isn't it the case that they have a position that is set and agreed by the membership.

    These positions on various topics are handed down to the negotiating team who are waiting for us to agree with the terms they are authorised by the membership to agree.

    If they negotiate a different end point to that which they have authorisation to agree, there then has to be a new agreement from the membership, which may or not be forthcoming dependent on who is aggrieved by the changed position.

    The EU appears hamstrung and rather inflexible due to its inflexibility, shown in the need to find the result before the negotiations begin.

    The use of the term negotiations appears to inaccurate. Acceptance or implementation of our position seem to be the EU expectations.
    The UK's political classes and it's media moguls have been semi detached from the EU for years. They can't really believe that most of the EU27 regard them as a pack of useless w**kers. We cannot change the rules of a club we want to leave if all the other members don't give a damn if we stay or go. They will quite happily keep going whatever happens.
    Good job we are leaving then.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    philiph said:

    Zero sympathy for those complaining about the EU's negotiating position. The EU didn't initiate this negotiation and anyone who had bothered to look at A50 before the referendum would have seen that the 2 year limit gave them a massive advantage.

    We were told by Vote Leave that they would be desperate for a deal with us. Reality has been rather different.

    Is one of the issues that the EU team can not negotiate?

    Isn't it the case that they have a position that is set and agreed by the membership.

    These positions on various topics are handed down to the negotiating team who are waiting for us to agree with the terms they are authorised by the membership to agree.

    If they negotiate a different end point to that which they have authorisation to agree, there then has to be a new agreement from the membership, which may or not be forthcoming dependent on who is aggrieved by the changed position.

    The EU appears hamstrung and rather inflexible due to its inflexibility, shown in the need to find the result before the negotiations begin.

    The use of the term negotiations appears to inaccurate. Acceptance or implementation of our position seem to be the EU expectations.
    So it is the EU who can really take the position of "no deal is better than a bad deal"
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited August 2017
    Off Topic

    Top story on Yahoo News currently:

    "Lurid Trump allegations made by Louise Mensch and co-writer came from hoaxer:

    Isn't this by its own definition a total non-story?

    (I know it has nothing to do with the price of fish, but isn't former PBer Ms Mensch an outstandingly attractive woman?)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229

    "... in the key general election marginals candidates with local links are likely to have an edge"

    No disrespect intended, but as a statement doesn't that rank as being a case of yesterday's glimpse of the blindingly obvious?

    It evidently wasn't blindingly obvious to CCHQ......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,522
    "That Labour’s public ownership plans for the railway industry choose to ignore… well, trains, should raise at least a few eyebrows, if not some serious concerns."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/chaos-waterloo-just-taste-jeremy-corbyn-would-inflict-railways/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    All 3 results possible in the test, England win the most likely still I think.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718
    GIN1138 said:

    Mr. Gin, as others have suggested, they just want to wring all they can from us.

    Their approach to trade/Ireland is also stupid. We can't have a border settlement separate from a trade settlement. But the EU won't discuss trade.

    They didn't ask for this to happen.


    Well whether they "asked" for Brexit (and one could argue the contempt with which they treated Cameron and his negotiation paved the way for Brexit as he literally had nothing to "sell" to Britain) we are where we are.

    HMG is clearly serious about the negotiation and has gone in with good faith while the EU doesn't seem to be serious at all...
    GIN, have you been smoking something or are you jesting. HMG does not know their arse from their elbow. I believe you are stirring it you bounder.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yeah, I saw Juncker had been shooting his mouth off, which us what prompted my question of why the EU still hasn't given us a detailed breakdown on monies owed?

    It does look as though unfortunately the EU is simply not interested in a sensible negotiation...
    Fog in Leavers' heads, continent cut off.
    Morning Mr Meeks.

    I thought that might tempt you out to play. ;)
    Your concern is a good one, mind. Some within the EU don't seem much interested in a negotiation.

    The British negotiating approach has been lamentable. They've been tough where they should have been conciliatory and as a consequence have felt obliged to be conciliatory when they should have been tough.

    By wasting all their political capital on puffing out their chests and painting themselves in woad at a time when a friendly approach would have worked wonders, they are unable to reject contemptuously the EU's more outrageous demands because it will look like more of the same old ranting from the crazy British.
    Hopefully we're all still messing around until Merkel is re-elected and then things will get serious (my expectation was always that the real negotiating happens after Germany's election)
    Hope is a strategy after all.
    Well if not, If the EU remain totally un-serious about the negotiation we'll just have to leave and go to WTO (at least we'll be able to start negotiating trade deals with other countries that are serious)
    LOL, don't expect a big queue
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if Owen Jones is calling for May to sack him.in that article
    I see Jones is citing Rachel Sylvester's fabulously bitchy piece in the Times this morning.

    Wasn't Sylvester always part of Team Boy George (along with D'Ancona?) ;)
    Probably, now a fading force
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718

    Off Topic

    Top story on Yahoo News currently:

    "Lurid Trump allegations made by Louise Mensch and co-writer came from hoaxer:

    Isn't this by its own definition a total non-story?

    (I know it has nothing to do with the price of fish, but isn't former PBer Ms Mensch an outstandingly attractive woman?)

    NOPE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    Tories would likely still be largest party if that Labour lead if just 1% is true
    Remarkably stable Tory figure. Most impressive. I blame Mrs May for such a strong and stable performance.

    Yes, she is still holding steady, despite not getting the big increase in voteshare she wanted the voteshare she did get is holding firm
  • malcolmg said:

    Off Topic

    Top story on Yahoo News currently:

    "Lurid Trump allegations made by Louise Mensch and co-writer came from hoaxer:

    Isn't this by its own definition a total non-story?

    (I know it has nothing to do with the price of fish, but isn't former PBer Ms Mensch an outstandingly attractive woman?)

    NOPE
    All in the eye of the beholder I suppose.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    Pulpstar said:

    All 3 results possible in the test, England win the most likely still I think.

    Eng 1.6 Draw 3.5 WI 10.5 according to Betfair. Taking a little of the 10.5 to cheer me up a little if England throw it away!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All 3 results possible in the test, England win the most likely still I think.

    Eng 1.6 Draw 3.5 WI 10.5 according to Betfair. Taking a little of the 10.5 to cheer me up a little if England throw it away!
    I guess the WI price is due to the fact they'll probably try and bat out rather than try and get the runs..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    malcolmg said:

    Off Topic

    Top story on Yahoo News currently:

    "Lurid Trump allegations made by Louise Mensch and co-writer came from hoaxer:

    Isn't this by its own definition a total non-story?

    (I know it has nothing to do with the price of fish, but isn't former PBer Ms Mensch an outstandingly attractive woman?)

    NOPE
    All in the eye of the beholder I suppose.
    I’ve met her, would say that she’s good looking rather than head-turningly gorgeous. Dresses very well too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,522
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    British public probably not too keen on giving Corbyn the keys to number 10 when push comes to shove.
    But, but...look at the crowds at Glastonbury.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited August 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All 3 results possible in the test, England win the most likely still I think.

    Eng 1.6 Draw 3.5 WI 10.5 according to Betfair. Taking a little of the 10.5 to cheer me up a little if England throw it away!
    I guess the WI price is due to the fact they'll probably try and bat out rather than try and get the runs..
    (Looks at betting slips)

    At their current run rate they’re only going to be 38 short, they don’t need to pick up the rate that much to go for the win.
  • Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Off Topic

    Top story on Yahoo News currently:

    "Lurid Trump allegations made by Louise Mensch and co-writer came from hoaxer:

    Isn't this by its own definition a total non-story?

    (I know it has nothing to do with the price of fish, but isn't former PBer Ms Mensch an outstandingly attractive woman?)

    NOPE
    All in the eye of the beholder I suppose.
    I’ve met her, would say that she’s good looking rather than head-turningly gorgeous. Dresses very well too.
    She certainly looks good in that Yahoo! picture of her .... not what you'd necessarily expect of someone originally named Bagshawe perhaps?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,522
    Fascinating video of Peter Shore in full flow over EU vote in 75:

    https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/902484340743045120
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,718

    malcolmg said:

    Off Topic

    Top story on Yahoo News currently:

    "Lurid Trump allegations made by Louise Mensch and co-writer came from hoaxer:

    Isn't this by its own definition a total non-story?

    (I know it has nothing to do with the price of fish, but isn't former PBer Ms Mensch an outstandingly attractive woman?)

    NOPE
    All in the eye of the beholder I suppose.
    very true
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Yeah, I saw Juncker had been shooting his mouth off, which us what prompted my question of why the EU still hasn't given us a detailed breakdown on monies owed?

    It does look as though unfortunately the EU is simply not interested in a sensible negotiation...
    Fog in Leavers' heads, continent cut off.
    Morning Mr Meeks.

    I thought that might tempt you out to play. ;)
    Your concern is a good one, mind. Some within the EU don't seem much interested in a negotiation.

    The British negotiating approach has been lamentable. They've been tough where they should have been conciliatory and as a consequence have felt obliged to be conciliatory when they should have been tough.

    By wasting all their political capital on puffing out their chests and painting themselves in woad at a time when a friendly approach would have worked wonders, they are unable to reject contemptuously the EU's more outrageous demands because it will look like more of the same old ranting from the crazy British.
    Hopefully we're all still messing around until Merkel is re-elected and then things will get serious (my expectation was always that the real negotiating happens after Germany's election)
    Hope is a strategy after all.
    Well if not, If the EU remain totally un-serious about the negotiation we'll just have to leave and go to WTO (at least we'll be able to start negotiating trade deals with other countries that are serious)
    LOL, don't expect a big queue
    Afternoon Malc ! :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    MOE?

    Silly season

    Bank Holiday

    Brexiteers on vacation

    Take your pick
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Mr. 43, Zeitgeist. The Germans do like capitalising nouns.

    I thought we were trying to get away from rules dictated to us from the continent.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I don't think it's been mentioned on here yet, bu there is a shambolic new "grassroots" "youth" organisation for centre-right Conservatives, supposedly to enthuse and encourage young people to get involved in politics.

    https://twitter.com/Activate_uk_net
    http://www.activate.uk.net/

    Unfortunately, it has a ridiculous logo (using a square-root sign instead of the letter V) which is illegible in the normal size. It launched itself by doing a tweet with a big picture of Jeremy Corbyn in a welcoming pose. The tweet did not have a link to its website, did not say or indicate that it was in any way Conservative, and was cluttered up with ridiculous hashtags. It was only with difficulty that I found its website. Despite supposedly wanting to be for young people, its constitution explicitly excludes the possibility of membership for people aged 23 or under.

    "2.4 Membership shall be split between young members, aged 24 years and older, and full members aged 25 years and older."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    JohnLoony said:

    I don't think it's been mentioned on here yet, bu there is a shambolic new "grassroots" "youth" organisation for centre-right Conservatives, supposedly to enthuse and encourage young people to get involved in politics.

    https://twitter.com/Activate_uk_net
    http://www.activate.uk.net/

    Unfortunately, it has a ridiculous logo (using a square-root sign instead of the letter V) which is illegible in the normal size. It launched itself by doing a tweet with a big picture of Jeremy Corbyn in a welcoming pose. The tweet did not have a link to its website, did not say or indicate that it was in any way Conservative, and was cluttered up with ridiculous hashtags. It was only with difficulty that I found its website. Despite supposedly wanting to be for young people, its constitution explicitly excludes the possibility of membership for people aged 23 or under.

    "2.4 Membership shall be split between young members, aged 24 years and older, and full members aged 25 years and older."

    Even Guido is laughing at them. Looks like the output of a couple of students done in a couple of days!
    https://order-order.com/2017/08/29/de-activate-new-tory-momentum-campaign-needs-work/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056

    Fascinating video of Peter Shore in full flow over EU vote in 75:

    https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/902484340743045120

    It's an absurd point. The person who effectively led the YES campaign in 1975 was one M Thatcher and the Conservatives were the most pro-EU of the main parties in the 50s and 60s (the 1950s Liberals were quite sceptical).

    Indeed, it was the Conservatives under MacMillan and later Heath who decided our destiny lay within the Common Market in opposition to Churchill's Liberal Unionist viewpoint in the immediate post-war period.

    Suez showed we were no longer a power of global importance. MacMillan's response to that debacle was to realise our future lay with closer ties to Europe and notably to France and West Germany.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Sandpit said:

    Even Guido is laughing at them. Looks like the output of a couple of students done in a couple of days!
    https://order-order.com/2017/08/29/de-activate-new-tory-momentum-campaign-needs-work/

    Well it worked for Jeremy...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056
    To take the 1975 analogy further, I don't live far from East Ham Town Hall where famously Roy Jenkins was flour-bombed during the Referendum campaign by anti-EEC Labour supporters. Jenkins was sharing a platform with William Whitelaw and Jo Grimond.
  • GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/902489819200311296

    Labour have seen their eight point lead over the Tories in our first survey following the general election decline to just one point now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/29/voting-intention-conservatives-41-labour-42-21-22-/

    And that's before Jezza betrayed "the north" over Brexit.
    Looks like the "Grenfell effect" has worn off.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Sandpit said:

    In other news.....

    Nissan will increase production at its Sunderland plant by a fifth and double the amount of parts it sources from within the UK in an attempt to offset higher costs following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.

    The Japanese car giant will step up production by 20pc to around 600,000 vehicles per year, the Nikkei Asian Review reported.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/28/nissan-increase-production-sunderland-plant-fifth/

    That wasn’t supposed to happen, they were supposed to be shutting up shop and moving the whole factory to the EU as we were stupid enough to leave.

    Or is it that business are finding that a positive regulatory environment and a currency that isn’t overvalued are a good thing for high tech manufacturing jobs in a post-Brexit UK.
    The supply chain changes are probably the most positive part of that since it will add production jobs rather than assembly jobs. If this kind of action is replicated across the industry it will be very good tot he UK BoP.
  • Cricviz model totally broken again...Gives WI only 1% of winning as things stand.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MaxPB said:

    The supply chain changes are probably the most positive part of that since it will add production jobs rather than assembly jobs. If this kind of action is replicated across the industry it will be very good tot he UK BoP.

    Except that it won't, because car manufacturers in EU27 countries will be cutting out UK parts manufacturers from their supply chains.

    Protectionism, rather than open international trade, is almost invariably damaging to an economy except in very specific circumstances.
  • Major Houston dam begins overspilling as Storm Harvey pushes reservoir past capacity - Texas official
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056

    Major Houston dam begins overspilling as Storm Harvey pushes reservoir past capacity - Texas official

    The pictures from Houston defy belief. Imagine if Glasgow, Sheffield or Newcastle was inundated to that degree. There has been some criticism of the State for not issuing a mandatory evacuation order and for aspects of the Government response but 30 inches of rain is beyond most people's imaginings.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Richard_Nabavi - though Ford is investing £2 billion at Dagenham...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    stodge said:

    Major Houston dam begins overspilling as Storm Harvey pushes reservoir past capacity - Texas official

    The pictures from Houston defy belief. Imagine if Glasgow, Sheffield or Newcastle was inundated to that degree. There has been some criticism of the State for not issuing a mandatory evacuation order and for aspects of the Government response but 30 inches of rain is beyond most people's imaginings.
    They would probably have had to issue that order before the hurricane was forecast.
    The last time they tried to evacuate, more died in their cars than as a result of the flooding, as people were stuck in massive traffic jams for many, many hours (and suffered heatstroke). Had that happened this time, many would have been stuck on roads three or four metres underwater.

    The real fault is the utter lack of long term planning for flood prevention, and the extensive recent development on Houston's surrounding flood plains.
  • stodge said:

    Major Houston dam begins overspilling as Storm Harvey pushes reservoir past capacity - Texas official

    The pictures from Houston defy belief. Imagine if Glasgow, Sheffield or Newcastle was inundated to that degree. There has been some criticism of the State for not issuing a mandatory evacuation order and for aspects of the Government response but 30 inches of rain is beyond most people's imaginings.
    The issue is that if they had ordered an evacuation the roads would have been completely gridlocked potentially putting people in more danger. They evacuated in 2005 and it was pretty chaotic. I'm not sure you could even evacuate 2 million people in the time they had.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if Owen Jones is calling for May to sack him.in that article
    I see Jones is citing Rachel Sylvester's fabulously bitchy piece in the Times this morning.

    Bitchy ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    MaxPB said:

    The supply chain changes are probably the most positive part of that since it will add production jobs rather than assembly jobs. If this kind of action is replicated across the industry it will be very good tot he UK BoP.

    Except that it won't, because car manufacturers in EU27 countries will be cutting out UK parts manufacturers from their supply chains.

    Protectionism, rather than open international trade, is almost invariably damaging to an economy except in very specific circumstances.
    It's estimated a country needs a population of 50 million to support an indigenous car industry. We happily meet that criteria.

    All we are seeing is the stupidity of selling off our parts industry to people who want to shut it down and move it

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056
    Nigelb said:


    They would probably have had to issue that order before the hurricane was forecast.
    The last time they tried to evacuate, more died in their cars than as a result of the flooding, as people were stuck in massive traffic jams for many, many hours (and suffered heatstroke). Had that happened this time, many would have been stuck on roads three or four metres underwater.

    The real fault is the utter lack of long term planning for flood prevention, and the extensive recent development on Houston's surrounding flood plains.

    Fair point - I'm not acquainted with Houston or its environs. I imagined a chain of interstates heading north and west which could be used but as Gareth has said, trying to move two million people is probably more trouble than it's worth.

    As for flood prevention, of course, but 50 inches of rain is something you can't begin to plan for.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    stodge said:

    Major Houston dam begins overspilling as Storm Harvey pushes reservoir past capacity - Texas official

    The pictures from Houston defy belief. Imagine if Glasgow, Sheffield or Newcastle was inundated to that degree. There has been some criticism of the State for not issuing a mandatory evacuation order and for aspects of the Government response but 30 inches of rain is beyond most people's imaginings.
    Endured 1 foot of rain in 24 hours on a flat island once. No cars moved for a few days and it took a week of sun to clear. Houston's 2.5 feet of rain and going on for several days looks like a nightmare.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520

    Cricviz model totally broken again...Gives WI only 1% of winning as things stand.

    That’s bonkers, Betfair has them at 5.5, 9/2 in old money.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    Nigelb said:

    stodge said:

    Major Houston dam begins overspilling as Storm Harvey pushes reservoir past capacity - Texas official

    The pictures from Houston defy belief. Imagine if Glasgow, Sheffield or Newcastle was inundated to that degree. There has been some criticism of the State for not issuing a mandatory evacuation order and for aspects of the Government response but 30 inches of rain is beyond most people's imaginings.
    The real fault is the utter lack of long term planning for flood prevention, and the extensive recent development on Houston's surrounding flood plains.
    Flood plains are there for a reason.
  • AllanAllan Posts: 262
    PAW said:

    Richard_Nabavi - though Ford is investing £2 billion at Dagenham...

    Is that another one of those despite Brexit announcements?
    Innocent face.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,885
    Almost exactly 3.5 runs per over at the moment. Easily gettable for people schooled in one-day cricket, although so are our bowlers.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    JohnLoony said:

    I don't think it's been mentioned on here yet, bu there is a shambolic new "grassroots" "youth" organisation for centre-right Conservatives, supposedly to enthuse and encourage young people to get involved in politics.

    https://twitter.com/Activate_uk_net
    http://www.activate.uk.net/

    Unfortunately, it has a ridiculous logo (using a square-root sign instead of the letter V) which is illegible in the normal size. It launched itself by doing a tweet with a big picture of Jeremy Corbyn in a welcoming pose. The tweet did not have a link to its website, did not say or indicate that it was in any way Conservative, and was cluttered up with ridiculous hashtags. It was only with difficulty that I found its website. Despite supposedly wanting to be for young people, its constitution explicitly excludes the possibility of membership for people aged 23 or under.

    "2.4 Membership shall be split between young members, aged 24 years and older, and full members aged 25 years and older."

    It now seems that they have changed the wording of 2.4 in a deliberate but futile attempt to make me look silly.

  • Sandpit said:

    Cricviz model totally broken again...Gives WI only 1% of winning as things stand.

    That’s bonkers, Betfair has them at 5.5, 9/2 in old money.
    I have spotted on a number of occasions the Cricviz model pump out total horseshit probabilities. It is rather surprising, given it is written by the guy who used to all the statistical modelling for the England team*.

    * perhaps that explains all the stupid declarations we saw a few years ago ;-)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970
    stodge said:

    Nigelb said:


    They would probably have had to issue that order before the hurricane was forecast.
    The last time they tried to evacuate, more died in their cars than as a result of the flooding, as people were stuck in massive traffic jams for many, many hours (and suffered heatstroke). Had that happened this time, many would have been stuck on roads three or four metres underwater.

    The real fault is the utter lack of long term planning for flood prevention, and the extensive recent development on Houston's surrounding flood plains.

    Fair point - I'm not acquainted with Houston or its environs. I imagined a chain of interstates heading north and west which could be used but as Gareth has said, trying to move two million people is probably more trouble than it's worth.

    As for flood prevention, of course, but 50 inches of rain is something you can't begin to plan for.
    You can begin to plan for it by not building on flood plains. It's something we're guilty of in this country too, but the US system of federal assistance for flood insurance, for example, has been absolutely nuts for decades (this is not exactly a party political issue), and has encouraged such development:
    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/29/a-storm-made-in-washington-215549
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,056
    PAW said:

    Richard_Nabavi - though Ford is investing £2 billion at Dagenham...

    Citation please ?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,849
    GIN1138 said:
    No, the Three Stooges are now David, Liam and Boris.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970

    Sandpit said:

    Cricviz model totally broken again...Gives WI only 1% of winning as things stand.

    That’s bonkers, Betfair has them at 5.5, 9/2 in old money.
    I have spotted on a number of occasions the Cricviz model pump out total horseshit probabilities. It is rather surprising, given it is written by the guy who used to all the statistical modelling for the England team*.

    * perhaps that explains all the stupid declarations we saw a few years ago ;-)
    I reckon it's closer to evens from here.
    167 runs off 50 overs, and 8 wickets standing should be eminently gettable. Depends on how the pitch behaves, I guess.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,970

    Almost exactly 3.5 runs per over at the moment. Easily gettable for people schooled in one-day cricket, although so are our bowlers.

    One day cricket isn't usually played on five day old strips, though.
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