My impression is that most foreigners don't think much about Britain at all (the idea that everyone else is agonising over Brexit is solipsism). If they do, however, they feel a mixture of amusement, sympathy and bafflement, in varying proportions. A new referendum reversing the decision would be seen as a return to rationality, albeit a somewhat embarrassing one. I don't expect it to happen, though, unless - as Alastair says - the proportion against moves closer to 2-1.
Why is it "rational" to want to be be ruled by a foreign power?
Immigration has fallen down "the most important issues" index and was not brought up much during the last GE.
I wonder if the E.U vote was a release valve for people to express their (understandable) frustrations on the issue, and now some pressure has been released will be deflated as an issue?
People think immigration is now going to be restricted so they're less concerned about it.
I remember during the election being told at work that Corbyn was going to stop immigration so that wages would rise. The person who told me that was in no way a Corbyn supporter.
Le chef de file de la France insoumise expose sa stratégie dans une interview au Journal du Dimanche. "L'opposition sera globale et frontale. Mais surtout nous serons une opposition qui argumente et propose afin de convaincre", promet-il au sujet de la réforme du Code du travail qui sera menée par ordonnances. Estimant qu'il n'y a rien à "négocier", il prévient : "Nous ne lâcherons rien. Nous informerons, nous mobiliserons. S'il le faut, nous appellerons nous-mêmes à des mobilisations populaires avec la jeunesse et dans les quartiers."
One hit wonder I reckon Alan, he will be circling the drain soon
Le chef de file de la France insoumise expose sa stratégie dans une interview au Journal du Dimanche. "L'opposition sera globale et frontale. Mais surtout nous serons une opposition qui argumente et propose afin de convaincre", promet-il au sujet de la réforme du Code du travail qui sera menée par ordonnances. Estimant qu'il n'y a rien à "négocier", il prévient : "Nous ne lâcherons rien. Nous informerons, nous mobiliserons. S'il le faut, nous appellerons nous-mêmes à des mobilisations populaires avec la jeunesse et dans les quartiers."
One hit wonder I reckon Alan, he will be circling the drain soon
he's having his honeymoon malc
the shit will hit the fan in the autumn
he has his majority etc going for him, but is France really ready for large scale change ?
most french presidents start out as reformers and end up by entrenching the status quo
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
That's true. At least for now.
since there are 23 months until we leave it has to be someone known and trusted by the public.
I struggle to think of anyone. Blair and Mandelson lack trust, Ken Clarke splits his own party, the LDs are in limbo and Sturgeon turns stomachs.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
That's true. At least for now.
since there are 23 months until we leave it has to be someone known and trusted by the public.
I struggle to think of anyone. Blair and Mandelson lack trust, Ken Clarke splits his own party, the LDs are in limbo and Sturgeon turns stomachs.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Mr. Uprising, the Kingdom of Northumbria ended over a thousand years ago. I might as well lament the lack of a successor to Erik Bloodaxe.
Create regional assemblies and carve up England, and you'll soon create a terrible mess. Suppose a North-Eastern First Minister argues, correctly, that spending per head is miles lower than in London and demands more cash. And suppose a London First Minister argues, correctly, that London effectively exports vast amounts of taxes already and should keep more of 'its' own money.
What happens? Resentment, division, internal English squabbling. There's no God-given right for England to exist and making it vulnerable to demagogues will tear it asunder.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.
The irony is, I reckon Brexit was a big factor in the Tories gaining those seats in Scotland.
I'm hoping the BES study will focus on Scotland heavily, I'm still curious about the voters who voted Yes in 2014, SNP in 2015, and Remain in 2016 who then switched to Ruth's team in 2017.
What were their motivations?
Do we have any idea how many of them there are? Plenty of leavers in NE Scotland.
They will live to regret trusting Tories, once they get a good shafting on fish and agriculture the turnips will be whining again , blew all their oil money and the thickos still go for the nasty party. The greedy self interested half wits will get their just desserts.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Not on its own but if the economy was crashing at the same time and the chancellor blamed it on Brexit then it might. Remember Black Wednesday in 1992 and Lamont drowning in his own sweat? Something like that
Mr. Uprising, the Kingdom of Northumbria ended over a thousand years ago. I might as well lament the lack of a successor to Erik Bloodaxe.
Create regional assemblies and carve up England, and you'll soon create a terrible mess. Suppose a North-Eastern First Minister argues, correctly, that spending per head is miles lower than in London and demands more cash. And suppose a London First Minister argues, correctly, that London effectively exports vast amounts of taxes already and should keep more of 'its' own money.
What happens? Resentment, division, internal English squabbling. There's no God-given right for England to exist and making it vulnerable to demagogues will tear it asunder.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.
Ha Ha Ha , delusion as ever. Bulldog has gone to ground after her "looking after Scotland" foundered at the first hurdles as her feeble 13 put on their sashes and voted the DUP way. Her and Mundell locked in a bunker somewhere, what a treat.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
That's true. At least for now.
since there are 23 months until we leave it has to be someone known and trusted by the public.
I struggle to think of anyone. Blair and Mandelson lack trust, Ken Clarke splits his own party, the LDs are in limbo and Sturgeon turns stomachs.
Only softie southern ones Alan.
she's political norovirus down here
Lacking in backbone down there Alan, whinging softies.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
That's true. At least for now.
since there are 23 months until we leave it has to be someone known and trusted by the public.
I struggle to think of anyone. Blair and Mandelson lack trust, Ken Clarke splits his own party, the LDs are in limbo and Sturgeon turns stomachs.
Only softie southern ones Alan.
she's political norovirus down here
Lacking in backbone down there Alan, whinging softies.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
As I have been saying. We aren't going to leave imho.
There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.
Investment has dried up since before the referendum. The spurt in economic activity that happened post-Brexit was one, due to the huge devaluation of sterling and two, consumers carried on spending.
The exports are still carrying on. Unfortunately, import prices are catching up and profit margins are getting eroded. But, significantly, consumer spending tap has been turned off due to negative real disposable income. The cross-over was about 3 months back and it is beginning to bite.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Le chef de file de la France insoumise expose sa stratégie dans une interview au Journal du Dimanche. "L'opposition sera globale et frontale. Mais surtout nous serons une opposition qui argumente et propose afin de convaincre", promet-il au sujet de la réforme du Code du travail qui sera menée par ordonnances. Estimant qu'il n'y a rien à "négocier", il prévient : "Nous ne lâcherons rien. Nous informerons, nous mobiliserons. S'il le faut, nous appellerons nous-mêmes à des mobilisations populaires avec la jeunesse et dans les quartiers."
One hit wonder I reckon Alan, he will be circling the drain soon
he's having his honeymoon malc
the shit will hit the fan in the autumn
he has his majority etc going for him, but is France really ready for large scale change ?
most french presidents start out as reformers and end up by entrenching the status quo
First whiff of job cuts and he will be toast, he is just a French Tory. Public there are not as sheeple like as UK.
Mr. Uprising, the Kingdom of Northumbria ended over a thousand years ago. I might as well lament the lack of a successor to Erik Bloodaxe.
Create regional assemblies and carve up England, and you'll soon create a terrible mess. Suppose a North-Eastern First Minister argues, correctly, that spending per head is miles lower than in London and demands more cash. And suppose a London First Minister argues, correctly, that London effectively exports vast amounts of taxes already and should keep more of 'its' own money.
What happens? Resentment, division, internal English squabbling. There's no God-given right for England to exist and making it vulnerable to demagogues will tear it asunder.
That's why a fair funding settlement that addresses Barnett would need to be agreed. Right now England barely exists as a political entity and yet its cultural identity is stronger than ever. I would remind you that we have already carved up England, but only to the benefit of Londoners and Greater Manchester.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Mr. Uprising, the Kingdom of Northumbria ended over a thousand years ago. I might as well lament the lack of a successor to Erik Bloodaxe.
Create regional assemblies and carve up England, and you'll soon create a terrible mess. Suppose a North-Eastern First Minister argues, correctly, that spending per head is miles lower than in London and demands more cash. And suppose a London First Minister argues, correctly, that London effectively exports vast amounts of taxes already and should keep more of 'its' own money.
What happens? Resentment, division, internal English squabbling. There's no God-given right for England to exist and making it vulnerable to demagogues will tear it asunder.
That's why a fair funding settlement that addresses Barnett would need to be agreed. Right now England barely exists as a political entity and yet its cultural identity is stronger than ever. I would remind you that we have already carved up England, but only to the benefit of Londoners and Greater Manchester.
given who the mayors are, its questionable whether its that beneficial
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Mr. Uprising, the Kingdom of Northumbria ended over a thousand years ago. I might as well lament the lack of a successor to Erik Bloodaxe.
Create regional assemblies and carve up England, and you'll soon create a terrible mess. Suppose a North-Eastern First Minister argues, correctly, that spending per head is miles lower than in London and demands more cash. And suppose a London First Minister argues, correctly, that London effectively exports vast amounts of taxes already and should keep more of 'its' own money.
What happens? Resentment, division, internal English squabbling. There's no God-given right for England to exist and making it vulnerable to demagogues will tear it asunder.
That's why a fair funding settlement that addresses Barnett would need to be agreed. Right now England barely exists as a political entity and yet its cultural identity is stronger than ever. I would remind you that we have already carved up England, but only to the benefit of Londoners and Greater Manchester.
given who the mayors are, its questionable whether its that beneficial
They've got more of a mandate than any of the national leaders right now at least!
Mr. Essexit, it's full of treachery and cunning, betrayal and bloodshed, and all manner of murky doings. It's superb, and everybody should buy it.
Mr. Uprising, if England needs a voice, and I agree it does, then an English Parliament is the appropriate answer, not carving England into warring fiefdoms.
My impression is that most foreigners don't think much about Britain at all (the idea that everyone else is agonising over Brexit is solipsism). If they do, however, they feel a mixture of amusement, sympathy and bafflement, in varying proportions. A new referendum reversing the decision would be seen as a return to rationality, albeit a somewhat embarrassing one. I don't expect it to happen, though, unless - as Alastair says - the proportion against moves closer to 2-1.
Why is it "rational" to want to be be ruled by a foreign power?
The EU is a partnership we chose to join, not a foreign power.
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
My impression is that most foreigners don't think much about Britain at all (the idea that everyone else is agonising over Brexit is solipsism). If they do, however, they feel a mixture of amusement, sympathy and bafflement, in varying proportions. A new referendum reversing the decision would be seen as a return to rationality, albeit a somewhat embarrassing one. I don't expect it to happen, though, unless - as Alastair says - the proportion against moves closer to 2-1.
Why is it "rational" to want to be be ruled by a foreign power?
It is rational not to believe one is ruled by a foreign power if that is not in fact the case. But in any case I was talking about how I think it would be seen, rather than my personal view.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Not on its own but if the economy was crashing at the same time and the chancellor blamed it on Brexit then it might. Remember Black Wednesday in 1992 and Lamont drowning in his own sweat? Something like that
If you are a die hard remainer, then it is essentially a case of the more economic and political chaos the better, because it can then be linked to the referendum result.
Trying to save the situation by going for Brexit lite should be resisted, because it simply emboldens the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
If you are a die hard remainer, then it is essentially a case of the more economic and political chaos the better, because it can then be linked to the referendum result.
Trying to save the situation by going for Brexit lite should be resisted, because it simply emboldens the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
Chaos awaits as we leave the customs union, the customs co-operation and even possibly the air traffic control systems:
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
The Donald will be sat on the Champs Elysee next week enjoying the sunshine with Macron while the british left tries to figure out whats going on
The Donald will come to Scotland first, give a twos up to the Tories. Saw his helicopter flying over last week , he may already have made a visit.
Perhaps a round or two with his old mucker alex, especially now he has so much more time on his hands.
They are not the best of pals nowadays.
I went to his old constituency last week-end at the Portsoy festival. On one of the stalls they were giving away SNP pens I managed to get one before the crush.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Not on its own but if the economy was crashing at the same time and the chancellor blamed it on Brexit then it might. Remember Black Wednesday in 1992 and Lamont drowning in his own sweat? Something like that
The growing unpopularity of the limpalong maydup government will drag Brexit down with it
"At Survation, we treat each election as a unique event; we do not allow the results of previous elections to skew our results by over-correcting for past errors. Instead, we are very careful to ensure we target a representative sample of voters, and try to avoid making assumptions beyond what our respondents tell us. We have never made this a secret."
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Not on its own but if the economy was crashing at the same time and the chancellor blamed it on Brexit then it might. Remember Black Wednesday in 1992 and Lamont drowning in his own sweat? Something like that
Mr. Essexit, it's full of treachery and cunning, betrayal and bloodshed, and all manner of murky doings. It's superb, and everybody should buy it.
Mr. Uprising, if England needs a voice, and I agree it does, then an English Parliament is the appropriate answer, not carving England into warring fiefdoms.
Have you sorted your kobo problem? I'm keen to read the next installment.
If you are a die hard remainer, then it is essentially a case of the more economic and political chaos the better, because it can then be linked to the referendum result.
Trying to save the situation by going for Brexit lite should be resisted, because it simply emboldens the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
That's the complementary point to the one John Rentoul makes in the header article. The harder the Brexit the less likely it will happen. If you are a Leaver you should resist claims of Soft Brexit is no Brexit at all, staying in the CU is no Brexit etc. You should go for the softest Brexit possible as it is more likely to happen.
My impression is that most foreigners don't think much about Britain at all (the idea that everyone else is agonising over Brexit is solipsism). If they do, however, they feel a mixture of amusement, sympathy and bafflement, in varying proportions. A new referendum reversing the decision would be seen as a return to rationality, albeit a somewhat embarrassing one. I don't expect it to happen, though, unless - as Alastair says - the proportion against moves closer to 2-1.
Why is it "rational" to want to be be ruled by a foreign power?
The EU is a partnership we chose to join, not a foreign power.
If we'd vetoed Spain's accession in the 80s I imagine Geoff would see things differently.
Mr. Recidivist, we didn't choose to join the EU. We chose to join the EEC.
No, sorry, we are a Parliamentary democracy and time after time, parties won elections and ran governments which were in favour, more or less, of closer involvement with the emerging EU.
I am old enough to remember when it was the height of loony left thinking that we should leave.
We are in the era of Trump-ian alternative facts....Government are probably fiddling the numbers, like the cover up over the number of deaths in the tower fire.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm. Basically she said it will depend on the politics but there is nothing in Article 50 or any other EU condition to prevent the reversal of the process. In fact she opined that the whole tenor of the thing was aimed at keeping Nations in rather than out, so on balance you might say the chances of a reversal were pretty good, if everybody wants it.
When I mentioned it on this site previously, Sir Norfolk Passmore indicated his general agreement although he suspected she was following the characteristic leaning of British Law to look at the substance of the matter and allowing a fair bit of wiggle room for interpretation. In mainland Europe, however, a more formal approach tends to be followed, so maybe the EU would take a different view, but he agreed that in the end, the political will, or lack of it, would be decisive.
My impression is that most foreigners don't think much about Britain at all (the idea that everyone else is agonising over Brexit is solipsism). If they do, however, they feel a mixture of amusement, sympathy and bafflement, in varying proportions. A new referendum reversing the decision would be seen as a return to rationality, albeit a somewhat embarrassing one. I don't expect it to happen, though, unless - as Alastair says - the proportion against moves closer to 2-1.
Why is it "rational" to want to be be ruled by a foreign power?
The EU is a partnership we chose to join, not a foreign power.
If we'd vetoed Spain's accession in the 80s I imagine Geoff would see things differently.
I've not considered that scenario, to be fair. I don't see what difference it would have made - they were dirty lazy bastards beforehand and joining the EU didn't change that.
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm.
I think you're using "authoritative" in a non-standard sense.
Somebody hasn't read their link fully...applications from young people is not down at all, especially considering the numbers of 18 year olds in the population is slightly down.
It is a fact since change to tuition fees have come in there are more young people in general and more people from poor backgrounds at university.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.
Ha Ha Ha , delusion as ever. Bulldog has gone to ground after her "looking after Scotland" foundered at the first hurdles as her feeble 13 put on their sashes and voted the DUP way. Her and Mundell locked in a bunker somewhere, what a treat.
Do you actually know anything about Scotish politics? Your predictions in this area have been piss poor.
If you are a die hard remainer, then it is essentially a case of the more economic and political chaos the better, because it can then be linked to the referendum result.
Trying to save the situation by going for Brexit lite should be resisted, because it simply emboldens the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
Chaos awaits as we leave the customs union, the customs co-operation and even possibly the air traffic control systems:
Dr. Foxinsox, the first Conservative majority for decades happened when the opportunity to leave the EU was on the table.
Mr. Borough, we voted to join the EEC. In the only other vote we have had since, we voted to leave the EU. If we had had the opportunity to vote, we would've vetoed the politics and currently enjoy a good economic relationship with the EU without the political entanglements that vex so many people.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
The Donald will be sat on the Champs Elysee next week enjoying the sunshine with Macron while the british left tries to figure out whats going on
Yep, Macron has played it perfectly. First establish full independence from Trump by showing him, your domestic audience and international partners that you are not his patsy: see Macron at the NATO summit and his condemnation of US withdrawal from the Paris climate change accord; then give him the full treatment on the Champs Elysee on Bastille Day - equal partners, representing their countries - to take advantage of UK weakness and isolationism to build up French influence in Washington DC. Macron is one smart cookie. Shame May chose to prostrate herself at Trump's feet instead.
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm.
I think you're using "authoritative" in a non-standard sense.
It read very much like an opinion, as I recall. ...and not one that inspired unquestioning acceptance.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Somebody hasn't read their link fully...applications from young people is not down at all, especially considering the numbers of 18 year olds in the population is slightly down.
It doesn't sound as though you read my comment properly. I was questioning Cooper's claim. He said "Application rates from low-income homes have never been higher". If overall UK application rates dropped by 5%, that seems unlikely, doesn't it?
Somebody hasn't read their link fully...applications from young people is not down at all, especially considering the numbers of 18 year olds in the population is slightly down.
It doesn't sound as though you read my comment properly. I was questioning Cooper's claim. He said "Application rates from low-income homes have never been higher". If overall UK application rates dropped by 5%, that seems unlikely, doesn't it?
He is replying to the tweet specifically about young people (it is also a reason why twiter is shit to have any sort of debate).
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm.
I think you're using "authoritative" in a non-standard sense.
It read very much like an opinion, as I recall. ...and not one that inspired unquestioning acceptance.
Yes - I've seen various opinions expressed, though none which really gets to grips with the explicit statement in Article 50 that the UK will automatically cease to be a member of the EU two years after notification (unless there is unanimous agreement to extend the timetable).
By "authoritative", I meant a court judgment, rather than an opinion.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Top story on BBC News right now, and the video comes originally from /r/The_Donald on Reddit — who are loving the attention — so does that mean The Donald reads The_Donald?
Dr. Foxinsox, the first Conservative majority for decades happened when the opportunity to leave the EU was on the table.
Mr. Borough, we voted to join the EEC. In the only other vote we have had since, we voted to leave the EU. If we had had the opportunity to vote, we would've vetoed the politics and currently enjoy a good economic relationship with the EU without the political entanglements that vex so many people.
Mr Dancer,
Brexit was on offer in 1983 and the party proposing it had its worse result since the war. I remember the 1976 referendum campaign well enough and there was no doubt that it was to join a political project.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.
Ha Ha Ha , delusion as ever. Bulldog has gone to ground after her "looking after Scotland" foundered at the first hurdles as her feeble 13 put on their sashes and voted the DUP way. Her and Mundell locked in a bunker somewhere, what a treat.
Do you actually know anything about Scotish politics? Your predictions in this area have been piss poor.
Immigration has fallen down "the most important issues" index and was not brought up much during the last GE.
I wonder if the E.U vote was a release valve for people to express their (understandable) frustrations on the issue, and now some pressure has been released will be deflated as an issue?
I remember during the election being told at work that Corbyn was going to stop immigration so that wages would rise. The person who told me that was in no way a Corbyn supporter.
The fact that person thinks that really shows how shit Tory messaging has been since May took over, and I don't just mean during the short campaign. You have to destroy your rival *before* the short campaign, as Crosby said "you can't fatten the pig on market day".
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Top story on BBC News right now, and the video comes originally from /r/The_Donald on Reddit — who are loving the attention — so does that mean The Donald reads The_Donald?
Somebody hasn't read their link fully...applications from young people is not down at all, especially considering the numbers of 18 year olds in the population is slightly down.
It doesn't sound as though you read my comment properly. I was questioning Cooper's claim. He said "Application rates from low-income homes have never been higher". If overall UK application rates dropped by 5%, that seems unlikely, doesn't it?
He is replying to the tweet specifically about young people (it is also a reason why twiter is shit to have any sort of debate).
The original tweet is a lie.
I didn't express an opinion about the original tweet.
But unless something very strange has happened this year, it seems most unlikely that applications from low-income homes are at an all-time high, while the total number of applications has dropped by 5%.
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm.
I think you're using "authoritative" in a non-standard sense.
It read very much like an opinion, as I recall. ...and not one that inspired unquestioning acceptance.
Yes - I've seen various opinions expressed, though none which really gets to grips with the explicit statement in Article 50 that the UK will automatically cease to be a member of the EU two years after notification (unless there is unanimous agreement to extend the timetable).
By "authoritative", I meant a court judgment, rather than an opinion.
Yes that that's where I was coming from too. There was no definitive case to draw any conclusions or extrapolate from.
That's no disrespect intended to PtP's daughter as this is completely uncharted territory. Opinions are as much as we'll get until things begin to shake out. As long as we recognise that they are only opinions.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
The Donald will be sat on the Champs Elysee next week enjoying the sunshine with Macron while the british left tries to figure out whats going on
Yep, Macron has played it perfectly. First establish full independence from Trump by showing him, your domestic audience and international partners that you are not his patsy: see Macron at the NATO summit and his condemnation of US withdrawal from the Paris climate change accord; then give him the full treatment on the Champs Elysee on Bastille Day - equal partners, representing their countries - to take advantage of UK weakness and isolationism to build up French influence in Washington DC. Macron is one smart cookie. Shame May chose to prostrate herself at Trump's feet instead.
Well if and when Trump returns to the Paris accord and declares his love for the EU Macron can claim he has had real influence on Trump, until then it has been May who turned Trump away from Putin and towards NATO not Macron
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.
Ha Ha Ha , delusion as ever. Bulldog has gone to ground after her "looking after Scotland" foundered at the first hurdles as her feeble 13 put on their sashes and voted the DUP way. Her and Mundell locked in a bunker somewhere, what a treat.
Do you actually know anything about Scotish politics? Your predictions in this area have been piss poor.
Somebody hasn't read their link fully...applications from young people is not down at all, especially considering the numbers of 18 year olds in the population is slightly down.
It doesn't sound as though you read my comment properly. I was questioning Cooper's claim. He said "Application rates from low-income homes have never been higher". If overall UK application rates dropped by 5%, that seems unlikely, doesn't it?
He is replying to the tweet specifically about young people (it is also a reason why twiter is shit to have any sort of debate).
The original tweet is a lie.
I didn't express an opinion about the original tweet.
But unless something very strange has happened this year, it seems most unlikely that applications from low-income homes are at an all-time high, while the total number of applications has dropped by 5%.
Doesn't it?
You are pinhead dancing...
The facts are very simple. More youngster at uni any ever before, more youngsters from poorer backgrounds, more youngsters dropping out. Far less part-time mature students.
Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.
If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.
Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?
Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.
Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.
If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.
More than that who's fronting Remain ?
No-one
Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.
Ha Ha Ha , delusion as ever. Bulldog has gone to ground after her "looking after Scotland" foundered at the first hurdles as her feeble 13 put on their sashes and voted the DUP way. Her and Mundell locked in a bunker somewhere, what a treat.
Do you actually know anything about Scotish politics? Your predictions in this area have been piss poor.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
The Donald will be sat on the Champs Elysee next week enjoying the sunshine with Macron while the british left tries to figure out whats going on
The British left think Macron is a Blairite not one of their own, they wanted Melenchon or Hamon to win
Exactly. Many of those ethnuastic about Macron (like myself) were not Corbynites. Indeed, many of them (Corbynites) see Macron as a neo-liberal. Some of Macron's biggest supporters included Chuka Umunna and George Osborne - not Paul Mason and Kerry Anne Mendoza.
@SouthamObserver If Macron was dealing with any other President, I'd agree it would be a perfect plan. But Trump is an erratic and implusive figure who doesn't do loyalty and much of a coherent policy on anything. Thus the idea that any single leader can influence him long-term is not really convincing. It's already been a struggle for Mattis and McMaster to carve out a long-term influence on Trump. Trump is the guy who can change his mind based on the last person he talked to.
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm. Basically she said it will depend on the politics but there is nothing in Article 50 or any other EU condition to prevent the reversal of the process. In fact she opined that the whole tenor of the thing was aimed at keeping Nations in rather than out, so on balance you might say the chances of a reversal were pretty good, if everybody wants it.
When I mentioned it on this site previously, Sir Norfolk Passmore indicated his general agreement although he suspected she was following the characteristic leaning of British Law to look at the substance of the matter and allowing a fair bit of wiggle room for interpretation. In mainland Europe, however, a more formal approach tends to be followed, so maybe the EU would take a different view, but he agreed that in the end, the political will, or lack of it, would be decisive.
Article 50 can be revoked, but that revocation might be subject to a challenge at the CJEU. Then it would be up to the court's judges to decide. Given there is no precedent, it's hard to see how they could overule a political decision that all member states plus the UK would have had to agree to. That said, it's pretty academic as there's a vanishingly small chance we will see A50 revoked. It would be much more productive to spend the remaining time before 29th March 2019 trying to salvage something from the wreckage of the government's Brexit strategy.
Dr. Foxinsox, the first Conservative majority for decades happened when the opportunity to leave the EU was on the table.
Mr. Borough, we voted to join the EEC. In the only other vote we have had since, we voted to leave the EU. If we had had the opportunity to vote, we would've vetoed the politics and currently enjoy a good economic relationship with the EU without the political entanglements that vex so many people.
Mr Dancer,
Brexit was on offer in 1983 and the party proposing it had its worse result since the war. I remember the 1976 referendum campaign well enough and there was no doubt that it was to join a political project.
It may well have been on offer in 1983 but I had not yet at that point purchased any products from Mr Gillette, nor had I been permitted the opportunity to trouble MI5 with my pencil-inflicted cross on any type of ballot paper.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
The Donald will be sat on the Champs Elysee next week enjoying the sunshine with Macron while the british left tries to figure out whats going on
Yep, Macron has played it perfectly. First establish full independence from Trump by showing him, your domestic audience and international partners that you are not his patsy: see Macron at the NATO summit and his condemnation of US withdrawal from the Paris climate change accord; then give him the full treatment on the Champs Elysee on Bastille Day - equal partners, representing their countries - to take advantage of UK weakness and isolationism to build up French influence in Washington DC. Macron is one smart cookie. Shame May chose to prostrate herself at Trump's feet instead.
Well if and when Trump returns to the Paris accord and declares his love for the EU Macron can claim he has had real influence on Trump, until then it has been May who turned Trump away from Putin and towards NATO not Macron
"The number of 18 year old UK applicants from most ethnic groups increased in 2017. 18 year old applicants from the Asian ethnic group increased by 5% (to 32,500), by 1% for the Black ethnic group (to 13,480), and by 5% for the Mixed ethnic group (to 11,830). 18 year old applicants from the White ethnic group fell by 2% (to 208,880)."
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm.
I think you're using "authoritative" in a non-standard sense.
It read very much like an opinion, as I recall. ...and not one that inspired unquestioning acceptance.
Yes - I've seen various opinions expressed, though none which really gets to grips with the explicit statement in Article 50 that the UK will automatically cease to be a member of the EU two years after notification (unless there is unanimous agreement to extend the timetable).
By "authoritative", I meant a court judgment, rather than an opinion.
Yes that that's where I was coming from too. There was no definitive case to draw any conclusions or extrapolate from.
That's no disrespect intended to PtP's daughter as this is completely uncharted territory. Opinions are as much as we'll get until things begin to shake out. As long as we recognise that they are only opinions.
Oh I don't think she or I would disagree with that, Geoff, but your courtesy is noted, with thanks.
"The number of 18 year old UK applicants from most ethnic groups increased in 2017. 18 year old applicants from the Asian ethnic group increased by 5% (to 32,500), by 1% for the Black ethnic group (to 13,480), and by 5% for the Mixed ethnic group (to 11,830). 18 year old applicants from the White ethnic group fell by 2% (to 208,880)."
I did look in that report for data about parental income, but I couldn't see any.
If people are betting on this it becomes rather important to know the status of the claims that the UK could unilaterally revoke the Article 50 process. Because otherwise suspending the process will require unanimous agreement, which might be much harder to achieve.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Shortly after the referendum my daughter sent me the authoritative ruing which she had to prepare for the clients of her law firm. Basically she said it will depend on the politics but there is nothing in Article 50 or any other EU condition to prevent the reversal of the process. In fact she opined that the whole tenor of the thing was aimed at keeping Nations in rather than out, so on balance you might say the chances of a reversal were pretty good, if everybody wants it.
When I mentioned it on this site previously, Sir Norfolk Passmore indicated his general agreement although he suspected she was following the characteristic leaning of British Law to look at the substance of the matter and allowing a fair bit of wiggle room for interpretation. In mainland Europe, however, a more formal approach tends to be followed, so maybe the EU would take a different view, but he agreed that in the end, the political will, or lack of it, would be decisive.
Article 50 can be revoked, but that revocation might be subject to a challenge at the CJEU. Then it would be up to the court's judges to decide. Given there is no precedent, it's hard to see how they could overule a political decision that all member states plus the UK would have had to agree to. That said, it's pretty academic as there's a vanishingly small chance we will see A50 revoked. It would be much more productive to spend the remaining time before 29th March 2019 trying to salvage something from the wreckage of the government's Brexit strategy.
I take back what I just said. PtP's daughter is officially crap [/sarc]
Here we've now got a proper legal statement by a proper lawyer to finish with.
If people genuinely think the rest of the world is closely following brexit soap opera think they are mistaken. There is far better entertainment on another channel...
Comments
I remember during the election being told at work that Corbyn was going to stop immigration so that wages would rise. The person who told me that was in no way a Corbyn supporter.
the shit will hit the fan in the autumn
he has his majority etc going for him, but is France really ready for large scale change ?
most french presidents start out as reformers and end up by entrenching the status quo
Donald Trump posts video clip of him 'beating' CNN in wrestling
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40474118
Create regional assemblies and carve up England, and you'll soon create a terrible mess. Suppose a North-Eastern First Minister argues, correctly, that spending per head is miles lower than in London and demands more cash. And suppose a London First Minister argues, correctly, that London effectively exports vast amounts of taxes already and should keep more of 'its' own money.
What happens? Resentment, division, internal English squabbling. There's no God-given right for England to exist and making it vulnerable to demagogues will tear it asunder.
Kingdom Asunder is up here, incidentally: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Kingdom-Asunder-Bloody-Crown-Trilogy-ebook/dp/B01N8UF799/
The sequel, Traitor's Prize, will hopefully be released next month.
when does the party split up there ?
The exports are still carrying on. Unfortunately, import prices are catching up and profit margins are getting eroded. But, significantly, consumer spending tap has been turned off due to negative real disposable income. The cross-over was about 3 months back and it is beginning to bite.
dont tell me youre reclaiming your long lost son just because Ecks gone ?
I would remind you that we have already carved up England, but only to the benefit of Londoners and Greater Manchester.
PS: He will be free just in time to be the first President of Scotland
Mr. Uprising, if England needs a voice, and I agree it does, then an English Parliament is the appropriate answer, not carving England into warring fiefdoms.
That's longer than Hayes was for Hayes - Harrison and that was already a gross misprice.
As Jolyon Maugham's legal bid to have this question clarified by the European Court of Justice was dropped in March, we don't have an authoritative ruling.
Trying to save the situation by going for Brexit lite should be resisted, because it simply emboldens the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/02/unless-follow-norway-brexit-britain-danger-grounded/
http://survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/
Brilliant Survation.
I'm keen to read the next installment.
I was teething at the time.
Mr. Recidivist, I think that's a statement of questionable accuracy.
Dr. Foxinsox, politicians from across the EEC/EU did. I don't recall a vote being held here on the matter.
Conspicuously no party with a Brexit manifesto has ever won a majority at a UK General Election.
https://twitter.com/olivercooper/status/881232230823194626
I am old enough to remember when it was the height of loony left thinking that we should leave.
When I mentioned it on this site previously, Sir Norfolk Passmore indicated his general agreement although he suspected she was following the characteristic leaning of British Law to look at the substance of the matter and allowing a fair bit of wiggle room for interpretation. In mainland Europe, however, a more formal approach tends to be followed, so maybe the EU would take a different view, but he agreed that in the end, the political will, or lack of it, would be decisive.
https://www.ucas.com/corporate/news-and-key-documents/news/applicants-uk-higher-education-down-5-uk-students-and-7-eu-students
It is a fact since change to tuition fees have come in there are more young people in general and more people from poor backgrounds at university.
Mr. Borough, we voted to join the EEC. In the only other vote we have had since, we voted to leave the EU. If we had had the opportunity to vote, we would've vetoed the politics and currently enjoy a good economic relationship with the EU without the political entanglements that vex so many people.
...and not one that inspired unquestioning acceptance.
Oh, and for the avoidance of any doubt, it ain't me in the North East Party!
The original tweet is a lie.
Only Bobajobabobaboyscout gets to dance between accounts with gay abandon.
For the rest of us there are rules.
By "authoritative", I meant a court judgment, rather than an opinion.
Brexit was on offer in 1983 and the party proposing it had its worse result since the war. I remember the 1976 referendum campaign well enough and there was no doubt that it was to join a political project.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/gareth-price/lynton-crosby_b_7265214.html
I still believe Crosby is a good strategist, but you need something to work with.
But unless something very strange has happened this year, it seems most unlikely that applications from low-income homes are at an all-time high, while the total number of applications has dropped by 5%.
Doesn't it?
That's no disrespect intended to PtP's daughter as this is completely uncharted territory. Opinions are as much as we'll get until things begin to shake out. As long as we recognise that they are only opinions.
The facts are very simple. More youngster at uni any ever before, more youngsters from poorer backgrounds, more youngsters dropping out. Far less part-time mature students.
The original tweet was a lie.
@SouthamObserver If Macron was dealing with any other President, I'd agree it would be a perfect plan. But Trump is an erratic and implusive figure who doesn't do loyalty and much of a coherent policy on anything. Thus the idea that any single leader can influence him long-term is not really convincing. It's already been a struggle for Mattis and McMaster to carve out a long-term influence on Trump. Trump is the guy who can change his mind based on the last person he talked to.
Here we've now got a proper legal statement by a proper lawyer to finish with.
Thanks SO. That's settled then.