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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well if this Brexit polling turns out to be a harbinger of future polling then the 4/1 might be value

Iff this @Survation poll with a 9% lead for Remain turns out not to be an outlier but the start of a trend, what will this mean for Brexit? pic.twitter.com/dMxkLBfhwW

Read the full story here

tlg86

Okay, first.

rottenborough

As I have been saying. We aren't going to leave imho.

There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.

rottenborough

The trouble with these bets is you are lending the bookies the money for at least 2 years.

isam

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

TheScreamingEagles

rottenborough said:

As I have been saying. We aren't going to leave imho.

There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.

My view is the quicker we Leave, the quicker we rejoin, so get a move on Theresa, DD, and Liam Fox.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everything.

This sounds like the sort of a bet a handsome young morris dancer mentioned only the other day

rottenborough

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everything.

This sounds like the sort of a bet a handsome young morris dancer mentioned only the other day

rottenborough

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

I think they may already be chortling their collective heads off.

SouthamObserver

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

isam

rottenborough said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

I think they may already be chortling their collective heads off.

I doubt it., but they would if we didn't implement the result before asking the question again. The kind of thing that only happens to little countries

Forget that its the EU issue and I have a view. If we have a referendum on anything and reverse before implementing the decision it is bad.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

Alanbrooke

I see we're back to believing polls

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

I see we're back to believing polls

Well I did say Iff plus it is from the Gold Standard pollster Survation.

I've written a thread to be published in the next few days about George Osborne, and it includes a quote from Alan Brooke, I hope this doesn't trigger you.

Must dash, this weather is wonderful.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

As I have been saying. We aren't going to leave imho.

There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.

My view is the quicker we Leave, the quicker we rejoin, so get a move on Theresa, DD, and Liam Fox.

Probably one of your dafter posts

how do we rejoin, certainly not on our current terms and we're forever damaged goods

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

As I have been saying. We aren't going to leave imho.

There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.

My view is the quicker we Leave, the quicker we rejoin, so get a move on Theresa, DD, and Liam Fox.

Probably one of your dafter posts

how do we rejoin, certainly not on our current terms and we're forever damaged goods

We rejoin on poorer terms, and it'll be a bit like the lease of Hong Kong, a 99 year deal and and a penalty fee for early release, say one trillion euros per year for every year we leave early.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

I see we're back to believing polls

Well I did say Iff plus it is from the Gold Standard pollster Survation.

I've written a thread to be published in the next few days about George Osborne, and it includes a quote from Alan Brooke, I hope this doesn't trigger you.

Must dash, this weather is wonderful.

ah yes the king beyond the water will stroll back in to Parliament and be met a room of happy faeces

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

As I have been saying. We aren't going to leave imho.

There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.

My view is the quicker we Leave, the quicker we rejoin, so get a move on Theresa, DD, and Liam Fox.

Probably one of your dafter posts

how do we rejoin, certainly not on our current terms and we're forever damaged goods

We rejoin on poorer terms, and it'll be a bit like the lease of Hong Kong, a 99 year deal and and a penalty fee for early release, say one trillion euros per year for every year we leave early.

you jest, but the terms will certainly be poorer and whos going to vote for that ?

oh wait we wont get a vote will we ?

tlg86

isam said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

I think they may already be chortling their collective heads off.

I doubt it., but they would if we didn't implement the result before asking the question again. The kind of thing that only happens to little countries

Forget that its the EU issue and I have a view. If we have a referendum on anything and reverse before implementing the decision it is bad.

If there's another referendum before we've left, I'll be spoiling my ballot paper. I would encourage all leavers to do the same.

foxinsoxuk

tlg86 said:

isam said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

I think they may already be chortling their collective heads off.

I doubt it., but they would if we didn't implement the result before asking the question again. The kind of thing that only happens to little countries

Forget that its the EU issue and I have a view. If we have a referendum on anything and reverse before implementing the decision it is bad.

If there's another referendum before we've left, I'll be spoiling my ballot paper. I would encourage all leavers to do the same.

So would I, overwhelming Remain victory!

isam

tlg86 said:

isam said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

I think they may already be chortling their collective heads off.

I doubt it., but they would if we didn't implement the result before asking the question again. The kind of thing that only happens to little countries

Forget that its the EU issue and I have a view. If we have a referendum on anything and reverse before implementing the decision it is bad.

If there's another referendum before we've left, I'll be spoiling my ballot paper. I would encourage all leavers to do the same.

Maybe the reason Cameron quit and threw the country into more instability than was necessary was precisely because it would cause more instabilty? Then people might panic and somehow we'd be forced back in.

We see his disciples arousal when there is bad news for the country, maybe they are following the leader

FF43

Any decision to cancel Brexit, or to put the question to plebiscite will be done on partisan grounds. Assuming the Conservatives are still in office, it will depend on a majority of CONSERVATIVES being in favour of remaining. In this survey it is 33% - so a long way to go. If there is a coalition not controlled by Conservatives, it could be interesting.

Stark_Dawning

isam said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

I think they may already be chortling their collective heads off.

I doubt it., but they would if we didn't implement the result before asking the question again. The kind of thing that only happens to little countries

Forget that its the EU issue and I have a view. If we have a referendum on anything and reverse before implementing the decision it is bad.

If there's another referendum before we've left, I'll be spoiling my ballot paper. I would encourage all leavers to do the same.

Maybe the reason Cameron quit and threw the country into more instability than was necessary was precisely because it would cause more instabilty? Then people might panic and somehow we'd been forced back in.

We see his disciples arousal when there is bad news for the country, maybe they are following the leader

You think Dave should have continued as PM? That surprises me. I didn't think you rated him.

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are. Haven't you provided an example of that with "Liberation"?

Alanbrooke

Looks like we're going to see what macron's made of - Left warming up for a fight


http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2017/07/01/01002-20170701LIVWWW00037-en-direct-le-fil-politique-du-week-end-des-1er-et-2-juillet-2017.php


Le chef de file de la France insoumise expose sa stratégie dans une interview au Journal du Dimanche. "L'opposition sera globale et frontale. Mais surtout nous serons une opposition qui argumente et propose afin de convaincre", promet-il au sujet de la réforme du Code du travail qui sera menée par ordonnances. Estimant qu'il n'y a rien à "négocier", il prévient : "Nous ne lâcherons rien. Nous informerons, nous mobiliserons. S'il le faut, nous appellerons nous-mêmes à des mobilisations populaires avec la jeunesse et dans les quartiers."

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

It goes beyond that, sadly.

AlastairMeeks

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

isam

Stark_Dawning said:

isam said:

tlg86 said:

isam said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

I think they may already be chortling their collective heads off.

I doubt it., but they would if we didn't implement the result before asking the question again. The kind of thing that only happens to little countries

Forget that its the EU issue and I have a view. If we have a referendum on anything and reverse before implementing the decision it is bad.

If there's another referendum before we've left, I'll be spoiling my ballot paper. I would encourage all leavers to do the same.

Maybe the reason Cameron quit and threw the country into more instability than was necessary was precisely because it would cause more instabilty? Then people might panic and somehow we'd been forced back in.

We see his disciples arousal when there is bad news for the country, maybe they are following the leader

You think Dave should have continued as PM? That surprises me. I didn't think you rated him.

I wasn't a massive fan of him, didnt vote for him, but didn't/don't hate him. I think he should have stayed on, because it cant be denied that Brexit is an upheaval for the country, and we don't need the extra uncertainty he placed on us.

SouthamObserver

Alanbrooke said:

Looks like we're going to see what macron's made of - Left warming up for a fight


http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2017/07/01/01002-20170701LIVWWW00037-en-direct-le-fil-politique-du-week-end-des-1er-et-2-juillet-2017.php


Le chef de file de la France insoumise expose sa stratégie dans une interview au Journal du Dimanche. "L'opposition sera globale et frontale. Mais surtout nous serons une opposition qui argumente et propose afin de convaincre", promet-il au sujet de la réforme du Code du travail qui sera menée par ordonnances. Estimant qu'il n'y a rien à "négocier", il prévient : "Nous ne lâcherons rien. Nous informerons, nous mobiliserons. S'il le faut, nous appellerons nous-mêmes à des mobilisations populaires avec la jeunesse et dans les quartiers."

The French know exactly what they voted for, but this is an inevitable part of the reform process.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

It goes beyond that, sadly.

Well you would say that, and I obviously would dispute it. Every foreign person that isn't laughing at us disproves your claim, googling left leaning pro EU journals doesn't prove it.

FF43

Anyway. Not many people are expecting Brexit to be a "success", it seems. It will either be catastrophic, crap, fake or stolen, according to your starting point.

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

It goes beyond that, sadly.

Well you would say that, and I obviously would dispute it. Every foreign person that isn't laughing at us disproves your claim, googling left leaning pro EU journals doesn't prove it.

Of course. I wouldn't call the Wall Street Journal left-leaning, though. But, to be fair, it's not actually laughing at us:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/now-britain-not-france-risks-being-sick-man-of-europe-1497461230

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 43, or difficult in the short-term, and good in the long-term.

When a grand edifice is destined to tumble, it's better to be outside it than within.

Mr. Meeks, indeed.

However, that also creates a potential problem. if polls shift to, say, 58:42, the EU might start trying to give us the worst possible deal to force a second referendum. If it doesn't happen *or* we vote to leave again, that could then see us leave without any deal.

That was always the problem with the Lib Dem position of a second referendum where we either accept the deal or stay in. It created a strong incentive for the EU to try and give us the worst terms possible to influence the electorate, rather than to try and create a good, long-term relationship.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

It goes beyond that, sadly.

Well you would say that, and I obviously would dispute it. Every foreign person that isn't laughing at us disproves your claim, googling left leaning pro EU journals doesn't prove it.

Of course. I wouldn't call the Wall Street Journal left-leaning, though. But, to be fair, it's not actually laughing at us:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/now-britain-not-france-risks-being-sick-man-of-europe-1497461230

To be fair you are right, it's not!

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

It goes beyond that, sadly.

Well you would say that, and I obviously would dispute it. Every foreign person that isn't laughing at us disproves your claim, googling left leaning pro EU journals doesn't prove it.

Of course. I wouldn't call the Wall Street Journal left-leaning, though. But, to be fair, it's not actually laughing at us:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/now-britain-not-france-risks-being-sick-man-of-europe-1497461230

To be fair you are right, it's not!

No, it's calling us hubristic and strongly implying we're stupid! Obviously, that's much better than being laughed at!!

FF43

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 43, or difficult in the short-term, and good in the long-term.

When a grand edifice is destined to tumble, it's better to be outside it than within.

We will be very smug to have got out first if the grand edifice does tumble, although the tumble is a problem in itself. The overwhelming probability however is that we find ourselves outside the EU, which is still there, with a much bigger EU headache than we had while we were still in.

rkrkrk

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

SouthamObserver

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

Businesses will make decisions ahead if formal Brexit, depending on how the negotiations are going.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

It goes beyond that, sadly.

Well you would say that, and I obviously would dispute it. Every foreign person that isn't laughing at us disproves your claim, googling left leaning pro EU journals doesn't prove it.

Of course. I wouldn't call the Wall Street Journal left-leaning, though. But, to be fair, it's not actually laughing at us:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/now-britain-not-france-risks-being-sick-man-of-europe-1497461230

To be fair you are right, it's not!

No, it's calling us hubristic and strongly implying we're stupid!

Sounds like they've been reading the PB Remainer book on how to accept defeat!

They're entitled to their opinion. But the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Most big business, media etc are pro EU type organisations. I don't think citing them being critical of our decision is evidence of the whole world laughing at us. I think the average man in the street is disturbed by stories of foreign governments ignoring referendums that they dont agree with though.

rkrkrk

SouthamObserver said:

No, it's calling us hubristic and strongly implying we're stupid! Obviously, that's much better than being laughed at!!

Yet it begins by acknowledging that the conventional wisdom on how a country's economy will do in future is often wrong/countries can change and improve.

Brexit will be a drag on our economy other things being equal - but I do think better economic policy-making has the potential to more than make up for it. I doubt we can get that from TM though.

Stark_Dawning

FF43 said:

Anyway. Not many people are expecting Brexit to be a "success", it seems. It will either be catastrophic, crap, fake or stolen, according to your starting point.

Yes, the initial euphoria has certainly receded, as has the assertion that it will be an effortless flick of the switch to utopia. Brexit's supporters are now showing something of public-school mentality - it'll be a long and gruelling obstacle course, but we'll come out better men the other side simply for having done it.

Peter_the_Punter

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Friend just returned from France and quite unsolicited tells me that the French she spoke to exhibited a mixture of bewilderment, incredulity and amusement at our decision. We're not talking just about the usual media suspects here, but ordinary everyday working folk.

I doubt things are very different throughout the rest of Europe (unless you count the Russians, who think Brexit is great.)

FrancisUrquhart

Froome gone down....now back up...heart in mouth...Team Sky going to have to work him back.

FF43

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

rottenborough

Stark_Dawning said:

FF43 said:

Anyway. Not many people are expecting Brexit to be a "success", it seems. It will either be catastrophic, crap, fake or stolen, according to your starting point.

Yes, the initial euphoria has certainly receded, as has the assertion that it will be an effortless flick of the switch to utopia. Brexit's supporters are now showing something of public-school mentality - it'll be a long and gruelling obstacle course, but we'll come out better men the other side simply for having done it.

If I recall correctly it was a bunch of public school idiots who have got us into this mess.

nunu

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Yes, maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

It goes beyond that, sadly.

Well you would say that, and I obviously would dispute it. Every foreign person that isn't laughing at us disproves your claim, googling left leaning pro EU journals doesn't prove it.

Of course. I wouldn't call the Wall Street Journal left-leaning, though. But, to be fair, it's not actually laughing at us:
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/now-britain-not-france-risks-being-sick-man-of-europe-1497461230

It's not left leaning but it's the equvilant of the Financial Times. Like The Times it is sort of Tory West Oxfordshire Remain type.

isam

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Friend just returned from France and quite unsolicited tells me that the French she spoke to exhibited a mixture of bewilderment, incredulity and amusement at our decision. We're not talking just about the usual media suspects here, but ordinary everyday working folk.

I doubt things are very different throughout the rest of Europe (unless you count the Russians, who think Brexit is great.)

The French public who voted in significant numbers for Le Pen, and who want a referendum themselves?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/majority-of-french-voters-want-an-eu-referendum-citi.html

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 43, the situation is not a good one.

However, consider the alternatives. The eurozone has a critical mass on QMV. Banking union has, I believe, already occurred, and monetary union happened already. There is now talk, denied pre-referendum, of an EU Army. The other natural integration step is fiscal union.

You might argue that the UK has significant opt-outs, would retain those, and would not join the single currency or be compelled to do so. Let us assume that is correct. We surrendered a swathe of vetoes when Brown reneged upon his manifesto commitment for a referendum and signed Lisbon (ironically, bringing into effect the very mechanism that allowed us to leave). In every area of QMV we are unable to determine our own destiny, and a great number, the overwhelming majority, of EU countries have the single currency's interests at heart. They can, and will, act in that interest and we cannot prevent that in any area of QMV.

Or consider the EU Army. Would we join it? Doubtful. But if the EU determines EU funds should be provided to sustain and supply the new armed force (which would seem to needlessly duplicate NATO...), could we possibly prevent this, and could we prevent billions of pounds being used for this purpose?

Without any new treaties, or any signing away of more power, we could, and would, find ourselves ever more at the whim of the EU.

And this is assuming everything trundles along. It doesn't assume the migrant crisis causes the resurgence in nationalism (we'd have a far right Austrian president if there hadn't been Tower Hamlets turnout levels for his opponent in the original election) that divides things. It doesn't assume the EU collapses in the near future (I think the EU will crumble but that it will take a while).

I'm not delighted by where we find ourselves. But the alternatives are, to my mind, worse. By leaving, we at least regain democratic accountability and become masters of our own destiny. Ceding authority to the unaccountable in an artificial federation that has no unifying culture or identity but has been concocted by ideologically driven bureaucrats is no way for an advanced nation to conduct its affairs.

Sorry, bit rambly.

Alanbrooke

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

rkrkrk

SouthamObserver said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

Businesses will make decisions ahead if formal Brexit, depending on how the negotiations are going.

They may make decisions - but will the effects of those decisions be felt?

For instance - they may decide not to open a new office in London, but instead expand in Dublin. But even if that happens - it's hard to notice that, and harder still to notice it before it has happened.

If we saw some kind of mass exodus of jobs before Brexit I could believe that would be noticed- but that doesn't seem very likely to me. It would involve businesses taking an enormous gamble that negotiations will turn out badly...

nunu

Immigration has fallen down "the most important issues" index and was not brought up much during the last GE.

I wonder if the E.U vote was a release valve for people to express their (understandable) frustrations on the issue, and now some pressure has been released will be deflated as an issue?

rkrkrk

nunu said:

Immigration has fallen down "the most important issues" index and was not brought up much during the last GE.

I wonder if the E.U vote was a release valve for people to express their (understandable) frustrations on the issue, and now some pressure has been released will be deflated as an issue?

Alternatively it could be that other issues have become more pressing and overtaken it?

Alanbrooke

nunu said:

Immigration has fallen down "the most important issues" index and was not brought up much during the last GE.

I wonder if the E.U vote was a release valve for people to express their (understandable) frustrations on the issue, and now some pressure has been released will be deflated as an issue?

I suspect the change in exchange rate will slow down immigration, it's no longer as profitble to come here.

FF43

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 43, the situation is not a good one.

However, consider the alternatives. The eurozone has a critical mass on QMV. Banking union has, I believe, already occurred, and monetary union happened already. There is now talk, denied pre-referendum, of an EU Army. The other natural integration step is fiscal union.

You might argue that the UK has significant opt-outs, would retain those, and would not join the single currency or be compelled to do so. Let us assume that is correct. We surrendered a swathe of vetoes when Brown reneged upon his manifesto commitment for a referendum and signed Lisbon (ironically, bringing into effect the very mechanism that allowed us to leave). In every area of QMV we are unable to determine our own destiny, and a great number, the overwhelming majority, of EU countries have the single currency's interests at heart. They can, and will, act in that interest and we cannot prevent that in any area of QMV.

Or consider the EU Army. Would we join it? Doubtful. But if the EU determines EU funds should be provided to sustain and supply the new armed force (which would seem to needlessly duplicate NATO...), could we possibly prevent this, and could we prevent billions of pounds being used for this purpose?

Without any new treaties, or any signing away of more power, we could, and would, find ourselves ever more at the whim of the EU.

And this is assuming everything trundles along. It doesn't assume the migrant crisis causes the resurgence in nationalism (we'd have a far right Austrian president if there hadn't been Tower Hamlets turnout levels for his opponent in the original election) that divides things. It doesn't assume the EU collapses in the near future (I think the EU will crumble but that it will take a while).

I'm not delighted by where we find ourselves. But the alternatives are, to my mind, worse. By leaving, we at least regain democratic accountability and become masters of our own destiny. Ceding authority to the unaccountable in an artificial federation that has no unifying culture or identity but has been concocted by ideologically driven bureaucrats is no way for an advanced nation to conduct its affairs.

Sorry, bit rambly.

Thanks for the reply. Well argued and not rambly at all.

Peter_the_Punter

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

That's correct, Rk. Once you have jumped off the cliff, there's no point in scrabbling around trying to claw your way back. You just have to wait and see how it pans out when you get to the bottom.

FF43

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

That's true. At least for now.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.

NorthofStoke

If, and it is big if, an economically reasonable Brexit and transition terms are agreed then it could pass in the current parliament and with TM stepping down the Tories would have decent position for the next GE. If not then self preservation could lead to another referendum so that the electorate own the decision. Would abandoning Brexit be an available option? We might even have three options with STV: World trade erms, some sort of fudge, staying in.

AlastairMeeks

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

A perception of government incompetence might make a difference. But I basically agree with you.

isam

Anyway, if we have dealt with the obfuscations over my original remark, should we have another referendum on EU membership before we leave, it will make us a laughing stock, which we are not currently.

If a country, not currently an EU member, has a referendum on whether to join and votes YES, I wouldn't laugh at them despite it probably being a bad idea in my opinion. If their government, who were against joining, then held another referendum on the matter before they joined, I would think they were a laughing stock

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.

The irony is, I reckon Brexit was a big factor in the Tories gaining those seats in Scotland.

Peter_the_Punter

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Friend just returned from France and quite unsolicited tells me that the French she spoke to exhibited a mixture of bewilderment, incredulity and amusement at our decision. We're not talking just about the usual media suspects here, but ordinary everyday working folk.

I doubt things are very different throughout the rest of Europe (unless you count the Russians, who think Brexit is great.)

The French public who voted in significant numbers for Le Pen, and who want a referendum themselves?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/majority-of-french-voters-want-an-eu-referendum-citi.html

Mais oui.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 43, cheers. Currently trying to come up with a short story (only saw the window yesterday and the deadline is Friday) so I'm slightly distracted

Mr. Eagles, those charming sentiments didn't exactly help stave off division or resentment when Cameron came out with them, and I don't think they'll do well now either.

Freggles

SouthamObserver said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

Businesses will make decisions ahead if formal Brexit, depending on how the negotiations are going.

We'll have Corbyn proposing nationalization of the Sunderland Nissan plant in 2019 won't we

nunu

I think we need to re-visit the thread (I can't remember by which poster) that claimed Trump is a fascist.....

foxinsoxuk

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Friend just returned from France and quite unsolicited tells me that the French she spoke to exhibited a mixture of bewilderment, incredulity and amusement at our decision. We're not talking just about the usual media suspects here, but ordinary everyday working folk.

I doubt things are very different throughout the rest of Europe (unless you count the Russians, who think Brexit is great.)

I got a similar reaction in Stockholm. Maybe the anti EU Swedes are in some sort of Swedish Skegness, but all the ones who mentioned it were a mixture of puzzled and pitying.

NickPalmer

My impression is that most foreigners don't think much about Britain at all (the idea that everyone else is agonising over Brexit is solipsism). If they do, however, they feel a mixture of amusement, sympathy and bafflement, in varying proportions. A new referendum reversing the decision would be seen as a return to rationality, albeit a somewhat embarrassing one. I don't expect it to happen, though, unless - as Alastair says - the proportion against moves closer to 2-1.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.

The irony is, I reckon Brexit was a big factor in the Tories gaining those seats in Scotland.

I'm hoping the BES study will focus on Scotland heavily, I'm still curious about the voters who voted Yes in 2014, SNP in 2015, and Remain in 2016 who then switched to Ruth's team in 2017.

What were their motivations?

nunu

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.

The irony is, I reckon Brexit was a big factor in the Tories gaining those seats in Scotland.

North East Scotland were the most LEAVE areas with some constituencies voting LEAVE.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/734222/Brexit-Scotland-not-vote-unanimously-remain-European-Union-Nicola-Sturgeon

foxinsoxuk

nunu said:

I think we need to re-visit the thread (I can't remember by which poster) that claimed Trump is a fascist.....

I think facism requires a level of consistency and coherence beyond what Trump can manage.

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.

The irony is, I reckon Brexit was a big factor in the Tories gaining those seats in Scotland.

I'm hoping the BES study will focus on Scotland heavily, I'm still curious about the voters who voted Yes in 2014, SNP in 2015, and Remain in 2016 who then switched to Ruth's team in 2017.

What were their motivations?

Do we have any idea how many of them there are? Plenty of leavers in NE Scotland.

isam

foxinsoxuk said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

If we had another referendum before we left, the rest of the world would be entitled to laugh at us

We're way past that point already.

Bit late there. Anyway the rest of the world isn't laughing at us. Maybe the foreign equivalents of our Remain inclined media are

They're laughing at us. We're not viewed as a serious country. Looking at the state of the government and the opposition that seems fair enough.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=liberation+brexit+boris&prmd=inv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_neCl4urUAhVBb1AKHZMGCEAQ_AUICSgB&biw=375&bih=559#imgrc=sQVuB-VFu76A-M:

Friend just returned from France and quite unsolicited tells me that the French she spoke to exhibited a mixture of bewilderment, incredulity and amusement at our decision. We're not talking just about the usual media suspects here, but ordinary everyday working folk.

I doubt things are very different throughout the rest of Europe (unless you count the Russians, who think Brexit is great.)

I got a similar reaction in Stockholm. Maybe the anti EU Swedes are in some sort of Swedish Skegness, but all the ones who mentioned it were a mixture of puzzled and pitying.

Conjours memories of my Swedish ex. A campaigner for them to join the Euro, who went around rock festivals in the country bending peoples ear about it. I even had a "Ja Til Euron" t-shirt! She was convinced they'd want it, but alas for her, referendum said no

"The voter turnout was 82.6%, and the result was 55.9% against and 42.0% in favor.[1] A majority of voters in Stockholm county voted in favor of adopting the euro (54.7% "yes", 43.2% "no"). "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_euro_referendum,_2003

Sheemsh it wash da Shwedish Shkegnessh wot won it

calum

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/881526882629496832

rkrkrk

Peter_the_Punter said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

That's correct, Rk. Once you have jumped off the cliff, there's no point in scrabbling around trying to claw your way back. You just have to wait and see how it pans out when you get to the bottom.

My metaphor would be:

Instead of taking the 3 points and keeping the scoreboard ticking over, we've kicked for touch. Time will tell whether our lineout is good enough, whether it's worth losing 3 safe points for 7 risky ones. But too early to know for sure yet.

tlg86

calum said:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/881526882629496832

I'm not sure society has benefitted from my geography degree.

Alanbrooke

FF43 said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

That's true. At least for now.

since there are 23 months until we leave it has to be someone known and trusted by the public.

I struggle to think of anyone. Blair and Mandelson lack trust, Ken Clarke splits his own party, the LDs are in limbo and Sturgeon turns stomachs.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.

The irony is, I reckon Brexit was a big factor in the Tories gaining those seats in Scotland.

I'm hoping the BES study will focus on Scotland heavily, I'm still curious about the voters who voted Yes in 2014, SNP in 2015, and Remain in 2016 who then switched to Ruth's team in 2017.

What were their motivations?

Do we have any idea how many of them there are? Plenty of leavers in NE Scotland.

We don't have any idea on numbers, just suppositions and anecdotes.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 86, if paying for university is wrong, then why does Sturgeon insist on the English paying for it in Scottish universities?

Peter_the_Punter

rkrkrk said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

That's correct, Rk. Once you have jumped off the cliff, there's no point in scrabbling around trying to claw your way back. You just have to wait and see how it pans out when you get to the bottom.

My metaphor would be:

Instead of taking the 3 points and keeping the scoreboard ticking over, we've kicked for touch. Time will tell whether our lineout is good enough, whether it's worth losing 3 safe points for 7 risky ones. But too early to know for sure yet.

Actually, the best metaphor I have come across is the Mayflower. On all reasonable assessments, it was a desperate and reckless gamble but look how it turned out!

Of course, we don't know how many vessels similar to the Mayflower foundered, never mind how many other similar hare-brained schemes met with disaster, but you can't dispute the Mayflower venture was successful - in the end.

David_Evershed

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, if paying for university is wrong, then why does Sturgeon insist on the English paying for it in Scottish universities?

Contrary to EU law as well by differentiating against a fellow EU country, England.

David_Evershed

tlg86 said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/881526882629496832

I'm not sure society has benefitted from my geography degree.

Is that a quote from the Prime Minister?

foxinsoxuk

Peter_the_Punter said:

rkrkrk said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

That's correct, Rk. Once you have jumped off the cliff, there's no point in scrabbling around trying to claw your way back. You just have to wait and see how it pans out when you get to the bottom.

My metaphor would be:

Instead of taking the 3 points and keeping the scoreboard ticking over, we've kicked for touch. Time will tell whether our lineout is good enough, whether it's worth losing 3 safe points for 7 risky ones. But too early to know for sure yet.

Actually, the best metaphor I have come across is the Mayflower. On all reasonable assessments, it was a desperate and reckless gamble but look how it turned out!

Of course, we don't know how many vessels similar to the Mayflower foundered, never mind how many other similar hare-brained schemes met with disaster, but you can't dispute the Mayflower venture was successful - in the end.

Mayflower, Jamestown or Darien scheme...

Alanbrooke

David_Evershed said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, if paying for university is wrong, then why does Sturgeon insist on the English paying for it in Scottish universities?

Contrary to EU law as well by differentiating against a fellow EU country, England.

only the english were stupid enough to decide to impoverish their own children

FF43

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

Ruth Davidson, she's got a good track record of socking it to narrow little nationalists.

The irony is, I reckon Brexit was a big factor in the Tories gaining those seats in Scotland.

I'm hoping the BES study will focus on Scotland heavily, I'm still curious about the voters who voted Yes in 2014, SNP in 2015, and Remain in 2016 who then switched to Ruth's team in 2017.

What were their motivations?

They weren't necessarily Remain. I suspect a number of them are Yes in 2014, SNP in 2015, Leave in 2016, Tory in 2017. As a percentage SNP to Tory switchers is quite small. I think there were more to Labour. Support for independence and support for the SNP is tightly correlated but they do fluctuate.

SquareRoot

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 86, if paying for university is wrong, then why does Sturgeon insist on the English paying for it in Scottish universities?

Nasty Nicola being two faced? Now her power base is corroded, she will become increasingly nationalistic. It will end in tears.

David_Evershed

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Why bother with a plebiscite?

Just decide on a polling sample of 1000 people using a single polling company and no context.

NorthernUprising

Greetings, all.

I'm a longtime poster on this site, but now that I am actively involved in politics I thought best to start a new account to avoid anything from years ago being taken out of context. I'm sure keen observers would be able to work out who I am, but I'd respectfully request you keep it to yourselves if you do.

I'm a member of the North East Party (NEP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Party

We recently won 3 seats on Durham County Council and control Peterlee Town Council.
I'm hoping to get us a foothold in Teesside (or should I be saying 'the Tees Valley' now?).

isam

NorthernUprising said:

Greetings, all.

I'm a longtime poster on this site, but now that I am actively involved in politics I thought best to start a new account to avoid anything from years ago being taken out of context. I'm sure keen observers would be able to work out who I am, but I'd respectfully request you keep it to yourselves if you do.

I'm a member of the North East Party (NEP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Party

We recently won 3 seats on Durham County Council and control Peterlee Town Council.
I'm hoping to get us a foothold in Teesside (or should I be saying 'the Tees Valley' now?).

Hi Rog

David_Evershed

According to the polls we are rules by a landslide Conservative Government so there is no chance of a second referendum or reversal of Article 50 trigger to leave the EU in two years time.

FF43

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

Alanbrooke said:

FF43 said:

rkrkrk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Regular polling of 54:46 in favour of Remain doesn't justify a fresh referendum.

If it headed towards 2:1, that might be more interesting.

Hypothetically what could cause a significant shift *before* we leave the EU?

Even if you assume the absolute worst worst case scenario happens when we leave - I'm far from convinced that the public will be convinced that things will really be that bad.

Once we've left I can see how opinions could shift in either direction and settle. But before? I don't really see why people would change their mind.

If it happens, and I agree we're a long way from it, I think it would be a perception that Brexit is much more hassle than it is worth rather than the outcome is objectively a disaster. So it ends up in the "too difficult" basket. Indeed the hassle factor is huge and benefits tiny. But there is a momentum to Brexit. The referendum result and the Article 50 process itself are very powerful forces.

More than that who's fronting Remain ?

No-one

That's true. At least for now.

since there are 23 months until we leave it has to be someone known and trusted by the public.

I struggle to think of anyone. Blair and Mandelson lack trust, Ken Clarke splits his own party, the LDs are in limbo and Sturgeon turns stomachs.

If reversion to Remain happens, and I think it unlikely, it will be because the PM, whether May, Hammond, Davies or a leader of a coalition TBD, changes their mind as their own party supporters have changed their minds. It will be a partisan decision. The leader can only stay in place if they have their party support behind them. The Conservatives are highly committed to Brexit and collectively unlikely to change their minds. A coalition government, maybe, if it were called into being because Brexit was in crisis.

NorthernUprising

isam said:

NorthernUprising said:

Greetings, all.

I'm a longtime poster on this site, but now that I am actively involved in politics I thought best to start a new account to avoid anything from years ago being taken out of context. I'm sure keen observers would be able to work out who I am, but I'd respectfully request you keep it to yourselves if you do.

I'm a member of the North East Party (NEP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Party

We recently won 3 seats on Durham County Council and control Peterlee Town Council.
I'm hoping to get us a foothold in Teesside (or should I be saying 'the Tees Valley' now?).

Hi Rog

Hi Bobajob!

Roger

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

I see we're back to believing polls

Well I did say Iff plus it is from the Gold Standard pollster Survation.

I've written a thread to be published in the next few days about George Osborne, and it includes a quote from Alan Brooke, I hope this doesn't trigger you.

Must dash, this weather is wonderful.

ah yes the king beyond the water will stroll back in to Parliament and be met a room of happy faeces

A UKIP get-together?

isam

David_Evershed said:

According to the polls we are rules by a landslide Conservative Government so there is no chance of a second referendum or reversal of Article 50 trigger to leave the EU in two years time.

According to the polls we didn't get the Tory majority needed to have a referendum, and Remain won the hypothetical

tlg86

David_Evershed said:

tlg86 said:

calum said:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/881526882629496832

I'm not sure society has benefitted from my geography degree.

Is that a quote from the Prime Minister?

Chortle.

isam

NorthernUprising said:

isam said:

NorthernUprising said:

Greetings, all.

I'm a longtime poster on this site, but now that I am actively involved in politics I thought best to start a new account to avoid anything from years ago being taken out of context. I'm sure keen observers would be able to work out who I am, but I'd respectfully request you keep it to yourselves if you do.

I'm a member of the North East Party (NEP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Party

We recently won 3 seats on Durham County Council and control Peterlee Town Council.
I'm hoping to get us a foothold in Teesside (or should I be saying 'the Tees Valley' now?).

Hi Rog

Hi Bobajob!

Oh I didn't realise it was the North East London party!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Uprising, welcome (back to, sort of) the site.

I fundamentally disagree with your party's raison d'etre, which is utterly wrong-headed, short-sighted and fails to learn the recent and obvious lessons of Scottish devolution.

Roger

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

As I have been saying. We aren't going to leave imho.

There will be a change of heart as the chaotic negotiations drag on and on and it is clear that real economic damage has started e.g. investment drying up, jobs going etc etc.

My view is the quicker we Leave, the quicker we rejoin, so get a move on Theresa, DD, and Liam Fox.

My guess is if we pulled out now Fox Davis and May would be mighty relieved. I don't think they had ant idea what they were getting themselves into

NorthernUprising

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Uprising, welcome (back to, sort of) the site.

I fundamentally disagree with your party's raison d'etre, which is utterly wrong-headed, short-sighted and fails to learn the recent and obvious lessons of Scottish devolution.

Thanks for the welcome!

The DUP deal shows that voting in the same party year in year out benefits no-one. The squeaky wheel gets the oil, whether it's Scottish nationalism, Welsh nationalism or the DUP.

surbiton

NickPalmer said:

My impression is that most foreigners don't think much about Britain at all (the idea that everyone else is agonising over Brexit is solipsism). If they do, however, they feel a mixture of amusement, sympathy and bafflement, in varying proportions. A new referendum reversing the decision would be seen as a return to rationality, albeit a somewhat embarrassing one. I don't expect it to happen, though, unless - as Alastair says - the proportion against moves closer to 2-1.

Sorry! Don't agree. Every bad news will be seen through the prism of Brexit. I am not even ruling out a recession by the end of the year. Negative growth in Q3 and Q4. Real disposable income is already negative for most.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Uprising, that's an argument for Not Party X, not for enshrining political divisions within England.