Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well if this Brexit polling turns out to be a harbinger of fut

1235»

Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    For the first time since June 2016 I can actually see a small route for the UK to remain.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/881578808100474881

    I can't see how brexit is supposed to work without the vast majority of Brits getting substantially poorer.

    We can't eat sovereignty.

    Let's have another referndum now we have some idea what brexit means.

    Remain vs. Hard Brexit

    Bring it on.
    What seems to me to be ignored by people making the economic argument, is that the lowest paid Brits have already been made substantially poorer by our EU membership, in terms of wages, job security, access to state resources, ability to buy a home etc. That's why they voted to leave it
    What makes you feel you can ascribe any of that to the EU, rather than 7 years of austerity?
    Mass immigration of cheap labour from 2004
    Real wages continued to grow until 2008 when the global finance crisis recession hit them. The real shocker is that after 7 masterful years of tory economic policy real average earinings have still not recovered to 2008 levels.


    Maybe wages overall, but probably not the for lowest paid

    If the mass importation of cheap labour doesn't result in cheaper labour, why do it?
    To fill jobs for which we don't have enough people.

    "UK unemployment rate held at a 42-year low of 4.6 percent in the three months to April 2017" (tradingeconomics.com based on ONS figures)

    "Farmers deliver stark warning over access to EU seasonal workers. Meurig Raymond, president of the National Farmers’ Union, told the body’s annual conference in Birmingham that farmers and food processors, particularly in horticulture and poultry, were already having difficulty recruiting." (theguardian.com)
    More men than ever are working less than 20 hours a week. Not out of choice
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/skysportsnewshq/status/881625986772729856

    All those gambling debts won't pay themselves....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:
    Phil Hammond is doing the job of Prime Minister, Mrs May really should make way for him.
    We have a Brexit strategy?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Scott_P said:
    Phil Hammond is doing the job of Prime Minister, Mrs May really should make way for him.
    We have a Brexit strategy?
    It was to have our cake and eat it, but they've realised that's bollocks.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405

    Scott_P said:
    Phil Hammond is doing the job of Prime Minister, Mrs May really should make way for him.
    We have a Brexit strategy?
    Of course not. Hammond is reassuring business leaders that anyone proposing a Brexit "strategy" will be firmly put in his place. There's enough damage already.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    Scott_P said:
    The Tory press machine is really on top of its game at the moment no?
    She's still winning. She's got them talking as if her plans to control the way you use the internet are about terrorism.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited July 2017
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Anyone live in the Shrewsbury area? Large numbers of emergency vehicles speeding along the M54 in that direction. Police, ambulances, fire engines. Lots of them. Could be some sort of exercise I suppose. Can't find any information on Twitter or local newspaper sites.

    2 for 1 at the local chippy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    AndyJS said:

    "Nearly 60% of Leave voters would now pay to retain EU citizenship

    Exclusive: Findings shown to The Independent suggest many who opted for Brexit at last year’s referendum would pay more than £1,000 to keep benefits of EU rights"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/leave-voters-ready-pay-to-keep-eu-citizenship-brexit-poll-lse-opinium-a7819001.html

    Who said Leave voters were thick?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Nearly 60% of Leave voters would now pay to retain EU citizenship

    Exclusive: Findings shown to The Independent suggest many who opted for Brexit at last year’s referendum would pay more than £1,000 to keep benefits of EU rights"

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/leave-voters-ready-pay-to-keep-eu-citizenship-brexit-poll-lse-opinium-a7819001.html

    Who said Leave voters were thick?
    The people who explained why Remain would win!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849
    edited July 2017
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:



    What seems to me to be ignored by people making the economic argument, is that the lowest paid Brits have already been made substantially poorer by our EU membership, in terms of wages, job security, access to state resources, ability to buy a home etc. That's why they voted to leave it

    What makes you feel you can ascribe any of that to the EU, rather than 7 years of austerity?
    Mass immigration of cheap labour from 2004
    Real wages continued to grow until 2008 when the global finance crisis recession hit them. The real shocker is that after 7 masterful years of tory economic policy real average earinings have still not recovered to 2008 levels.


    Maybe wages overall, but probably not the for lowest paid

    If the mass importation of cheap labour doesn't result in cheaper labour, why do it?
    To fill jobs for which we don't have enough people.

    "UK unemployment rate held at a 42-year low of 4.6 percent in the three months to April 2017" (tradingeconomics.com based on ONS figures)

    "Farmers deliver stark warning over access to EU seasonal workers. Meurig Raymond, president of the National Farmers’ Union, told the body’s annual conference in Birmingham that farmers and food processors, particularly in horticulture and poultry, were already having difficulty recruiting." (theguardian.com)
    More men than ever are working less than 20 hours a week. Not out of choice
    If that's the case, what's driving the EU immigration?

    To be fair, your original point was that the lowest paid Brits have been made substantially poorer by our EU membership through mass immigration of cheap labour from 2004.

    That has a superficial plausibility (supply and demand etc.) but the dates just don't stack up. And the EU is a convenient scapegoat for a government that has run the economy very badly for the poorest in society (not so badly for the better off, of which I am fortunate to be one). In particular it's pursuit of austerity and free-market neoliberalism, has (predictably) hurt the poor.

    You can blame the EU, but the government runs the economy not the EU.

    As an aside, and far too late, the Tories now seem to have woken up to the error of their ways and are now trampling over each other in a stampede to adopt the very policies they were lambasting as socialist/marxist a few weeks ago.

    I know we will not agree - but I enjoy the debate!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,849

    Scott_P said:
    The Tory press machine is really on top of its game at the moment no?
    She's still winning. She's got them talking as if her plans to control the way you use the internet are about terrorism.
    Optics: every headline is reinforcing the impression that the Tories are in a state of chaos.

    It was significant that Jezza's self-inflicted single-market debacle didn't stay in the news for long.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    The EU looks set to sign a trade deal with Japan next week. Will be big news if it happens!
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    LEAVE stopped campaigning over a year ago, and its polling is down a max of three points to (assuming Survation are as wrong as they were and in the same direction) 49:51. In the circumstances - no campaign, in 'power' and therefore getting the blame for everything, uncertainties of negotiation and transition - that has held up extremely well.

    REMAIN has about six hundred days to legitimise, call, campaign on and win a second referendum, or it becomes REJOIN. And I don't think it can get there.

    All 9 circles of hell await for a CON PM, certainly May, calling a second ref, and little better for the PCP during and after one. And if May is forced out, the new PM has no mandate for a 2nd ref. Going to the polls again would harm CON and REMAIN with it.

    Would a Corbyn-led LAB govt call one? I don't think Corbyn would. He's a leaver (for the same reason as oh, gosh, nobody else in the country - free movement of capital) and I don't think the PLP can shift him before 2019 now.

    So I'm not tempted by the 4/1. We all know those specials are for Shadsy's bonus anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Eight people including seven-year-old girl are injured after masked gunmen open fire at a mosque in the south of France
This discussion has been closed.